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2018 PARIS21 ANNUAL
MEETINGS
5 APRIL 2018
PROPOSING A USE OF STATISTICS INDICATOR
IN NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANS
International Association for Official Statistics Conference 2018
Paris – September 20 2018
Parallel session on Statistical evidence on policy making
2
History of the indicator
• Introduced in 2010 to assess impact of international statistical capacity
building activities in developing countries, following external evaluation of
P21 in 2009.
• Reports in 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2015. A similar indicator is used to inform
logframes and monitor Global Action Plans.
• In 2015 the manual coding was partially replaced with data mining.
3
Why is it useful?
• Link between statistical development and policy making (impact of P21’s
activity).
• Replicable, low-cost methodology already implemented in other indicators (e.g.
statistical literacy, tweet global summits)
• Extensible to new areas of work for P21: gender, sectoral (e.g. agriculture)
• Popular indicator for partners and contribution to current debate on “quality” of
NDPs (e.g. well-being, SDGs)
4
• Scoring system to measure use of statistics in public policy documents
• Automatised methods (data mining) to produce quantitative metrics on
countries’ official use of statistics
• Different dimensions considered:
• Upstream: how statistics contribute to decision-making
• Downstream: Monitoring and evaluation
• Target audience: policy makers, academics and users
What does it do?
5
Example: Sierra Leone NDP
Food poverty incidence in rural areas fell from 71%
in 2003 to 51% in 2011; in urban areas it declined
even more significantly, from 63.5% to 40.8% in
2011, particularly in the poorest quantiles.
6
Scoring
Component Total score Description
Up
stream
Basic use
Level 1: 10 pts Basic: Introduction of measurable concept
Level 2: 20 pts Diagnosis: depiction of state of measurable concept
Level 3: 30 pts
Analysis: use of statistical methods to describe state and
causes of variation
Disaggregation 20 pts
Frequency of disaggregation keywords across NDP
sectors/topics
Down
stream
Monitoring and evaluation
arrangements
10 pts Frequency of M&E keywords across NDP sectors
Assessment of previous plans 10 pts Analysis undertaken about previous plans
7
Innovations
• Coverage: 102 countries (199 documents)
• Keyword list
• New sectoral classification
• International databases by topic
• Clustering for validation
• Three different levels on sophistication of use  based on Stat. Literacy index
• Sentence level analysis in four dimensions
• New weights, related to depth of analysis for each section
8
Example: Sierra Leone
Food poverty incidence in rural areas fell from 71%
in 2003 to 51% in 2011; in urban areas it declined
even more significantly, from 63.5% to 40.8% in
2011, particularly in the poorest quantiles.
Level 1: indicator
Level 2: indicator + figure
Level 3: indicator + statistical term
Disaggregation: dimensions of disaggregation
9
Summary results
Max: 62Min: 8
Mean
SD: 11 Min Max Mean SD
2000-2008 8 62 38 11
2009-2017 11 62 42 11
PRSP 12 60 40 9
NDP 8 62 40 12
10
Results: average scores
Source: PARIS21 (forthcoming) Proposing a Use of Statistics indicator in National Development Plans.
11
Robustness checks: Sensitivity
Boxplot showing the median rank and the corresponding 25th and 95th percentile
Rank 85:
Weighted
aggregate of
standardized
scores
Rank 31:
Weighted
geometric
aggregate
12
Robustness checks: Uncertainty
0
50
100
150
200
0 50 100 150 200
Excludinglevel2(Rank8)
Original Rank
0
50
100
150
200
0 50 100 150 200
Non-weighted(Rank2)
Original Rank
Rank Country Year
Diff
Rank 2
Diff
Rank 3
Diff
Rank 4
Diff
Rank 5
Diff
Rank 6
Diff
Rank 7
Diff
Rank 8
Diff
Rank 9
Diff Rank
10
Avg
diff.
2 PHL 2017 -2 -3 -5 -2 -1 -4 -1 -4 -1 2
47 BTN 2013 +12 -38 -4 +16 -6 -9 -32 -37 -26 20
92 NGA 2004 -2 -4 -4 +20 +19 -49 -52 -7 20
197 PNG 2004 0 +1 0 +1 +1 +2 +1 0 1
Average difference 8 11 6 30 10 10 12 13 7 12
13
Research and policy in development
Framework
The political context – political
and economic structure, culture,
institutional pressures, incremental
vs radical change etc.
The evidence – credibility,
research approaches and
methodology, communication,
etc
External Influences
Socio-economic and
cultural influences,
donor policies etc
The links between policy
and research communities –
networks, relationships, power,,
trust, knowledge etc.
Source: ODI
14
Proxy indicators
Political context
• CPIA
• WGI
Evidence
• SCI
• Statistical literacy
External Influences
• GDP per capita
• ODA
• HDI
• Adult literacy
Links
• Press freedom
UoS
15
Concurrent validity checks
SCI
(Yr-1)
CPIA
(Yr-1)
WGI: Voice and
Accountability
(Yr-1)
Press Freedom
(Yr-1)
HDI
(Yr-1)
Literacy
(Yr-1)
GDP per capita
(Yr-1)
Official Development
Assistance
(10 prev Yrs)
Total 0.17* 0.15 -0.12 0.19* 0.08 0.09 -0.06 0.09
Africa 0.17 0.27* -0.02 0.08 -0.03 -0.08 -0.18 0.11
Asia 0.06 -0.12 -0.29* 0.33* -0.01 0.03 -0.13 0.10
Oceania,
Europe
and
America
0.23 0.50 0.22 0.05 0.44* 0.63* 0.13 -0.10
PRSP 0.33* 0.23 -0.01 0.13 0.18 0.18 0.10 -0.05
NDP 0.07 0.10 -0.19 0.23* 0.03 0.02 -0.09 0.13
2000-2008 0.20* 0.16 -0.14 0.26* 0.10 0.13 -0.16 0.05
2009-2017 0.09 0.16 -0.08 0.06 -0.05 0.03 -0.02 0.07
Pairwise Pearson correlation between selected indicators and use of statistics for the various sub-populations in the
sample
16
• Complement with in-depth analysis of specific components in
NDPs/PRSPs/Sectoral policies
• Develop UoS indicator for specific sectors (e.g. gender, agriculture, labour)
• Feedback on statistical planning tools (e.g. ADAPT)
• Go beyond policy documents review: strengthen methodology
• Monitoring & Evaluation
• NDPs progress reports
• Feed statistical literacy work stream and PARIS21 Flagship report
Way forward
17
• Is the indicator relevant for a policy maker? How it can be improved?
• What other dimensions to analyse in NDPs (e.g. disaggregation)?
• Limitations (e.g. bias in keywords, no sematic analysis). How to tackle?
Questions for the audience
THANK YOU!
19
Towards better use of statistics
CD 4.0: a
demand-driven
approach
Channels: from 
capacity to  use
From  Use to
 Governance
20
Rank 2: Non-weighted aggregate
Rank 3: Weighted aggregate of standardized scores (z scores)
Rank 4: Non-weighted aggregate of z scores
Rank 5: Weighted geometric aggregate (only for documents where all
components are different than zero)
Rank 6: Aggregate excluding level 3, rescaled weights for the rest of the
components
Rank 7: Aggregate of z scores, excluding level 3 and rescaling weights for the
rest of the components
Rank 8: Aggregate excluding level 2, rescaled weights for the rest of the
components
Rank 9: Aggregate of z scores, excluding level 2 and rescaling weights for the
rest of the components
Rank 10: Weighted aggregate of rescaled scores for individual components
21
Minimum Maximum Mean
Standard
deviation
Asia 8 62 41 8
Africa 12 60 39 9
Americas 12 55 38 12
Oceania 8 55 33 15
Europe 16 58 45 14

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IAOS 2018 - Proposing a use of statistics indicator in national development plans, R. Avendano

  • 1. 2018 PARIS21 ANNUAL MEETINGS 5 APRIL 2018 PROPOSING A USE OF STATISTICS INDICATOR IN NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANS International Association for Official Statistics Conference 2018 Paris – September 20 2018 Parallel session on Statistical evidence on policy making
  • 2. 2 History of the indicator • Introduced in 2010 to assess impact of international statistical capacity building activities in developing countries, following external evaluation of P21 in 2009. • Reports in 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2015. A similar indicator is used to inform logframes and monitor Global Action Plans. • In 2015 the manual coding was partially replaced with data mining.
  • 3. 3 Why is it useful? • Link between statistical development and policy making (impact of P21’s activity). • Replicable, low-cost methodology already implemented in other indicators (e.g. statistical literacy, tweet global summits) • Extensible to new areas of work for P21: gender, sectoral (e.g. agriculture) • Popular indicator for partners and contribution to current debate on “quality” of NDPs (e.g. well-being, SDGs)
  • 4. 4 • Scoring system to measure use of statistics in public policy documents • Automatised methods (data mining) to produce quantitative metrics on countries’ official use of statistics • Different dimensions considered: • Upstream: how statistics contribute to decision-making • Downstream: Monitoring and evaluation • Target audience: policy makers, academics and users What does it do?
  • 5. 5 Example: Sierra Leone NDP Food poverty incidence in rural areas fell from 71% in 2003 to 51% in 2011; in urban areas it declined even more significantly, from 63.5% to 40.8% in 2011, particularly in the poorest quantiles.
  • 6. 6 Scoring Component Total score Description Up stream Basic use Level 1: 10 pts Basic: Introduction of measurable concept Level 2: 20 pts Diagnosis: depiction of state of measurable concept Level 3: 30 pts Analysis: use of statistical methods to describe state and causes of variation Disaggregation 20 pts Frequency of disaggregation keywords across NDP sectors/topics Down stream Monitoring and evaluation arrangements 10 pts Frequency of M&E keywords across NDP sectors Assessment of previous plans 10 pts Analysis undertaken about previous plans
  • 7. 7 Innovations • Coverage: 102 countries (199 documents) • Keyword list • New sectoral classification • International databases by topic • Clustering for validation • Three different levels on sophistication of use  based on Stat. Literacy index • Sentence level analysis in four dimensions • New weights, related to depth of analysis for each section
  • 8. 8 Example: Sierra Leone Food poverty incidence in rural areas fell from 71% in 2003 to 51% in 2011; in urban areas it declined even more significantly, from 63.5% to 40.8% in 2011, particularly in the poorest quantiles. Level 1: indicator Level 2: indicator + figure Level 3: indicator + statistical term Disaggregation: dimensions of disaggregation
  • 9. 9 Summary results Max: 62Min: 8 Mean SD: 11 Min Max Mean SD 2000-2008 8 62 38 11 2009-2017 11 62 42 11 PRSP 12 60 40 9 NDP 8 62 40 12
  • 10. 10 Results: average scores Source: PARIS21 (forthcoming) Proposing a Use of Statistics indicator in National Development Plans.
  • 11. 11 Robustness checks: Sensitivity Boxplot showing the median rank and the corresponding 25th and 95th percentile Rank 85: Weighted aggregate of standardized scores Rank 31: Weighted geometric aggregate
  • 12. 12 Robustness checks: Uncertainty 0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200 Excludinglevel2(Rank8) Original Rank 0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200 Non-weighted(Rank2) Original Rank Rank Country Year Diff Rank 2 Diff Rank 3 Diff Rank 4 Diff Rank 5 Diff Rank 6 Diff Rank 7 Diff Rank 8 Diff Rank 9 Diff Rank 10 Avg diff. 2 PHL 2017 -2 -3 -5 -2 -1 -4 -1 -4 -1 2 47 BTN 2013 +12 -38 -4 +16 -6 -9 -32 -37 -26 20 92 NGA 2004 -2 -4 -4 +20 +19 -49 -52 -7 20 197 PNG 2004 0 +1 0 +1 +1 +2 +1 0 1 Average difference 8 11 6 30 10 10 12 13 7 12
  • 13. 13 Research and policy in development Framework The political context – political and economic structure, culture, institutional pressures, incremental vs radical change etc. The evidence – credibility, research approaches and methodology, communication, etc External Influences Socio-economic and cultural influences, donor policies etc The links between policy and research communities – networks, relationships, power,, trust, knowledge etc. Source: ODI
  • 14. 14 Proxy indicators Political context • CPIA • WGI Evidence • SCI • Statistical literacy External Influences • GDP per capita • ODA • HDI • Adult literacy Links • Press freedom UoS
  • 15. 15 Concurrent validity checks SCI (Yr-1) CPIA (Yr-1) WGI: Voice and Accountability (Yr-1) Press Freedom (Yr-1) HDI (Yr-1) Literacy (Yr-1) GDP per capita (Yr-1) Official Development Assistance (10 prev Yrs) Total 0.17* 0.15 -0.12 0.19* 0.08 0.09 -0.06 0.09 Africa 0.17 0.27* -0.02 0.08 -0.03 -0.08 -0.18 0.11 Asia 0.06 -0.12 -0.29* 0.33* -0.01 0.03 -0.13 0.10 Oceania, Europe and America 0.23 0.50 0.22 0.05 0.44* 0.63* 0.13 -0.10 PRSP 0.33* 0.23 -0.01 0.13 0.18 0.18 0.10 -0.05 NDP 0.07 0.10 -0.19 0.23* 0.03 0.02 -0.09 0.13 2000-2008 0.20* 0.16 -0.14 0.26* 0.10 0.13 -0.16 0.05 2009-2017 0.09 0.16 -0.08 0.06 -0.05 0.03 -0.02 0.07 Pairwise Pearson correlation between selected indicators and use of statistics for the various sub-populations in the sample
  • 16. 16 • Complement with in-depth analysis of specific components in NDPs/PRSPs/Sectoral policies • Develop UoS indicator for specific sectors (e.g. gender, agriculture, labour) • Feedback on statistical planning tools (e.g. ADAPT) • Go beyond policy documents review: strengthen methodology • Monitoring & Evaluation • NDPs progress reports • Feed statistical literacy work stream and PARIS21 Flagship report Way forward
  • 17. 17 • Is the indicator relevant for a policy maker? How it can be improved? • What other dimensions to analyse in NDPs (e.g. disaggregation)? • Limitations (e.g. bias in keywords, no sematic analysis). How to tackle? Questions for the audience
  • 19. 19 Towards better use of statistics CD 4.0: a demand-driven approach Channels: from  capacity to  use From  Use to  Governance
  • 20. 20 Rank 2: Non-weighted aggregate Rank 3: Weighted aggregate of standardized scores (z scores) Rank 4: Non-weighted aggregate of z scores Rank 5: Weighted geometric aggregate (only for documents where all components are different than zero) Rank 6: Aggregate excluding level 3, rescaled weights for the rest of the components Rank 7: Aggregate of z scores, excluding level 3 and rescaling weights for the rest of the components Rank 8: Aggregate excluding level 2, rescaled weights for the rest of the components Rank 9: Aggregate of z scores, excluding level 2 and rescaling weights for the rest of the components Rank 10: Weighted aggregate of rescaled scores for individual components
  • 21. 21 Minimum Maximum Mean Standard deviation Asia 8 62 41 8 Africa 12 60 39 9 Americas 12 55 38 12 Oceania 8 55 33 15 Europe 16 58 45 14

Editor's Notes

  1. Coverage: We are now able to collect more documents from different sources Key words: The clustering method help us identify more keywords in each sector using the primary list of words. a list of indicators from international agencies (World Bank, WHO, UNESCO, UNIDO, ITU, UN Women, OCHR, UNWTO, ILO, OECD, EU, UNSD). A key improvement to the existent indicator was to include (in a simplified form) a list of statistical terms related to the SDG agenda, which was previously not considered. The three level is built on the previous work in statistical literacy. 4 levels: frequency of use of statistics, sector involved, upstream associated to problem identification, programme design, policy choice and forecasting) and downstream ((monitoring and evaluation and policy impact evaluation), level of use.
  2. Coverage: We are now able to collect more documents from different sources Key words: The clustering method help us identify more keywords in each sector using the primary list of words. a list of indicators from international agencies (World Bank, WHO, UNESCO, UNIDO, ITU, UN Women, OCHR, UNWTO, ILO, OECD, EU, UNSD). A key improvement to the existent indicator was to include (in a simplified form) a list of statistical terms related to the SDG agenda, which was previously not considered. The three level is built on the previous work in statistical literacy. 4 levels: frequency of use of statistics, sector involved, upstream associated to problem identification, programme design, policy choice and forecasting) and downstream ((monitoring and evaluation and policy impact evaluation), level of use.
  3. https://www.odi.org/events/presentations/1020.ppt
  4. the identification and analysis of specific components in NDPs/PRSPs: including Monitoring and Evaluation frameworks and the assessment of progress (period over period) between National Development Plans. Developing a UoS indicator for specific sectors (e.g. agriculture, gender or labour): using sector-specific lists and document for the analysis.
  5. the identification and analysis of specific components in NDPs/PRSPs: including Monitoring and Evaluation frameworks and the assessment of progress (period over period) between National Development Plans. Developing a UoS indicator for specific sectors (e.g. agriculture, gender or labour): using sector-specific lists and document for the analysis.