This is a data driven investigation on whether the 2007 - 2009 financial crisis was at all oil related or was it mainly housing related. As you will soon find out, it was mainly housing related. Oil had nothing to do with it.
Marketing Sustainability to Businesses: Strategies & Tactics for Influencing ...Mike Walker
Objective: Share practical lessons for marketing energy efficiency and
sustainability initiatives to enterprises
Overview:
1. Common mistakes we make when trying to "sell" sustainability
2. Behavioral science on motivating action
State of the Economy: What happened and when will it come to an end? Christop...ECPA Events
Last year even as the US was already in a recession not only were forecasters saying we weren't in a downturn, they were predicting that the economy would be moving strongly forward by the beginning of 2009.
Marketing Sustainability to Businesses: Strategies & Tactics for Influencing ...Mike Walker
Objective: Share practical lessons for marketing energy efficiency and
sustainability initiatives to enterprises
Overview:
1. Common mistakes we make when trying to "sell" sustainability
2. Behavioral science on motivating action
State of the Economy: What happened and when will it come to an end? Christop...ECPA Events
Last year even as the US was already in a recession not only were forecasters saying we weren't in a downturn, they were predicting that the economy would be moving strongly forward by the beginning of 2009.
The Automotive Industry Consumer LanscapeLevelwing
This Automotive Industry Insights paper provides a high level overview of the US Automotive Consumer Landscape. Featured insights include search demand for automotive parts and services, trends in vehicle ownership and use, research habits of consumers and the role of mobile devices in research and purchase. Visit additional insights and case studies from Levelwing: http://ow.ly/dM4KF
This presentation covers the application of Big Data principles in Customer Experience Management. I present data models to help companies integrate, organize and analyze their disparate data sources (e.g., operational, financial, constituency and customer feedback) to improve the customer experience and customer loyalty.
Tim Pulido, President & CEO with 30 years of restaurant industry experience, presents his outlook for 2012 and the brand strategies necessary to win in the New Normal.
2013 NAR Issues Conference Economists' Panel (February 2013)Nar Res
For those interested in NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun’s conversation with Christina Romer and Gregory Mankiw at the 2013 NAR Issues Conference, here is the PPT that was used.
Gold Wars are between governments and gold. This ultimately
restricts the constitutional rights of the people.
Gold is the vital barometer of the health of a nation’s currency.
The suppression of gold by government allows them to mask
the mismanagement of their currency.
Jenny Rebholz and I love talking to, motivating and helping all higher education students. But naturally, we are most passionate about helping interior design graduates succeed in their professional careers. That's why we make time to talk to last year design students about the importance of establishing their Personal Brand.
Discussing the state of industry, the changes the industry has gone through and is still undergoing, and how it all influences the profession of interior design, job opportunities and long-term career goals for young professionals.
The Automotive Industry Consumer LanscapeLevelwing
This Automotive Industry Insights paper provides a high level overview of the US Automotive Consumer Landscape. Featured insights include search demand for automotive parts and services, trends in vehicle ownership and use, research habits of consumers and the role of mobile devices in research and purchase. Visit additional insights and case studies from Levelwing: http://ow.ly/dM4KF
This presentation covers the application of Big Data principles in Customer Experience Management. I present data models to help companies integrate, organize and analyze their disparate data sources (e.g., operational, financial, constituency and customer feedback) to improve the customer experience and customer loyalty.
Tim Pulido, President & CEO with 30 years of restaurant industry experience, presents his outlook for 2012 and the brand strategies necessary to win in the New Normal.
2013 NAR Issues Conference Economists' Panel (February 2013)Nar Res
For those interested in NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun’s conversation with Christina Romer and Gregory Mankiw at the 2013 NAR Issues Conference, here is the PPT that was used.
Gold Wars are between governments and gold. This ultimately
restricts the constitutional rights of the people.
Gold is the vital barometer of the health of a nation’s currency.
The suppression of gold by government allows them to mask
the mismanagement of their currency.
Jenny Rebholz and I love talking to, motivating and helping all higher education students. But naturally, we are most passionate about helping interior design graduates succeed in their professional careers. That's why we make time to talk to last year design students about the importance of establishing their Personal Brand.
Discussing the state of industry, the changes the industry has gone through and is still undergoing, and how it all influences the profession of interior design, job opportunities and long-term career goals for young professionals.
Sacramento's population projections for the State of California are already 1.4 million too high only 3 years into the forecast by 2023. The reason is Sacramento's unrealistic migration assumption. This analysis tests in detail how and why this projection went so wrong.
This study analyzes the temperature history of 24 American cities going back to 1895. Using a LOESS model, it forecasts prospective temperature increases over the next 40 years and out to 2100. And, it compares the 2100 forecast with the NOAA model(s). This comparison uncovers serious deficiencies within the NOAA model(s), as it does not fit the historical data well; and it does not differentiate much forecasts between various cities.
Compact Letter Display (CLD). How it worksGaetan Lion
Compact Letter Display (CLD) renders ANOVA & Tukey HSD testing a lot easier to interpret. It readily ranks and differentiate the tested variables. With CLD you can readily identify the variables that are statistically dissimilar vs. the ones that are similar.
This study compares the benefits and the funding for CalPERS pensions vs. Social Security. It also looks in more detail on the financial burden of CalPERS pensions on the Marin Municipal Water District.
This presentation includes two explanatory models to attempt to predict recessions. The first one is a logistic regression. The second one is a deep neural network (DNN). Both use the same set of independent variables: the velocity of money, inflation, the yield curve, and the stock market. As usual, the DNN fits the historical data a bit better than the simpler logistic regression. But, when it comes to testing or predicting, both models are pretty much even.
Objective:
Studying trends in US inequality along several social dimensions including education, ethnicity, percentiles, and work status. We don’t explore gender because it is not disaggregated within the mentioned data that focuses on families (fairly similar to households).
Data source:
US Government Survey of Consumer Finance (SCF) data. The SCF aggregates financial data on US families every three years. And, it discloses a time series from 1989 to 2019.
The model development two objectives are:
1) To explain home prices using demographic explanatory variables; and
2) To benchmark the accuracy of OLS regressions vs. DNN models.
For home prices, we used county level data from Zillow. For the explanatory variables, we used data from GEOFRED.
This analysis focuses on population aging, population age categories in % (age pyramids), and overall population growth. It looks at various geographic units (countries, continents, regions, World) from 1950 to the Present (2019 & 2020). And, it looks at projections out to 2100.
Africa is an outlier to the overall global aging; its population growth (historical & projected) is far faster than for other major regions.
We are going to analyze several of the major cryptocurrencies as an asset class. And, we are going to address several related questions:
Do they provide diversification benefits relative to the stock market (S&P 500)?
How do their diversification benefits compare with Gold’s diversification benefit vs. the stock market?
Do cryptocurrencies provide diversification benefits when you really need it… during market downturns?
Are cryptocurrencies truly “digital Gold”? Do they behave in a similar way given that their supply is constrained (supposedly in a similar way as Gold is)?
We will test whether :
a) Sequential Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) can predict the stock market (S&P 500) better than OLS regression;
b) DNNs using smooth Rectified Linear activation functions perform better than the ones using Sigmoid (Logit) activation functions.
Can Treasury Inflation Protected Securities predict Inflation?Gaetan Lion
We look at the spread between Treasuries and TIPS to figure out how effective such observations were in predicting actual inflation several years down the road.
This analysis focuses on measures much beyond PE ratios. And, it concludes that the Stock Market is actually really cheap vs. bonds. But, it appears quite overvalued when focusing on inflation measures.
The relationship between the Stock Market and Interest RatesGaetan Lion
This is a study of the relationship between the Stock Market and Interest Rates. We review how the Stock Market has reacted when interest rates rise. We also factor the influence of other macroeconomics variables.
This is a study using historical data and forecasts of life expectancy for several countries. The data and forecasts come from the UN - Population Division. While the historical data is most interesting, the forecasts are highly optimistic as they project a linear trend way into the future. Meanwhile, those forecasts should have followed a much more realistic logarithmic curve reflecting slower increase in life expectancy as the life expectancy rises.
Will Stock Markets survive in 200 years?Gaetan Lion
This study uncovers 11 international stock markets that are already running into existing and prospective demographic and economic growth constraints. This study evaluates their respective fragile long term viability and the implications this has for the investors in such countries.
This study answers three questions:
1) Does it make a difference whether you standardize your variables before running your model or standardize the regression coefficients after you run your model?
2) Does the scale of the respective original non-standardized variables affect the resulting standardized coefficients?
3) Does using non-standardized variables vs. standardized variables have an impact when conducting regularization (Ridge Regression, LASSO)?
This analysis compares his track record vs. Manning, Montana, Marino, Brees, Favre, and Elway. At the end of this analysis, it makes extensive use of the binomial distribution to figure out how much of their respective track records are due to randomness vs. skills.
Regularization why you should avoid themGaetan Lion
Regularization models are supposed to reduce model over-fitting and improve forecasting accuracy. Very often they do just the opposite: increase model under-fitting, and decrease model forecasting accuracy. This study explains how Regularization models often fail, and how to resolve model issues with far simpler and more robust methods.
This study reviews the increasing prevalence of 3-shot points within the NBA. It also compares the record of the 5 top players in NBA history in 3-pt shots. It also considers how many good years left Curry may have.
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp NetworkTechSoup
Dive into the world of AI! Experts Jon Hill and Tareq Monaur will guide you through AI's role in enhancing nonprofit websites and basic marketing strategies, making it easy to understand and apply.
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdfkaushalkr1407
The Roman Empire, a vast and enduring power, stands as one of history's most remarkable civilizations, leaving an indelible imprint on the world. It emerged from the Roman Republic, transitioning into an imperial powerhouse under the leadership of Augustus Caesar in 27 BCE. This transformation marked the beginning of an era defined by unprecedented territorial expansion, architectural marvels, and profound cultural influence.
The empire's roots lie in the city of Rome, founded, according to legend, by Romulus in 753 BCE. Over centuries, Rome evolved from a small settlement to a formidable republic, characterized by a complex political system with elected officials and checks on power. However, internal strife, class conflicts, and military ambitions paved the way for the end of the Republic. Julius Caesar’s dictatorship and subsequent assassination in 44 BCE created a power vacuum, leading to a civil war. Octavian, later Augustus, emerged victorious, heralding the Roman Empire’s birth.
Under Augustus, the empire experienced the Pax Romana, a 200-year period of relative peace and stability. Augustus reformed the military, established efficient administrative systems, and initiated grand construction projects. The empire's borders expanded, encompassing territories from Britain to Egypt and from Spain to the Euphrates. Roman legions, renowned for their discipline and engineering prowess, secured and maintained these vast territories, building roads, fortifications, and cities that facilitated control and integration.
The Roman Empire’s society was hierarchical, with a rigid class system. At the top were the patricians, wealthy elites who held significant political power. Below them were the plebeians, free citizens with limited political influence, and the vast numbers of slaves who formed the backbone of the economy. The family unit was central, governed by the paterfamilias, the male head who held absolute authority.
Culturally, the Romans were eclectic, absorbing and adapting elements from the civilizations they encountered, particularly the Greeks. Roman art, literature, and philosophy reflected this synthesis, creating a rich cultural tapestry. Latin, the Roman language, became the lingua franca of the Western world, influencing numerous modern languages.
Roman architecture and engineering achievements were monumental. They perfected the arch, vault, and dome, constructing enduring structures like the Colosseum, Pantheon, and aqueducts. These engineering marvels not only showcased Roman ingenuity but also served practical purposes, from public entertainment to water supply.
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic ImperativePeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
Instructions for Submissions thorugh G- Classroom.pptxJheel Barad
This presentation provides a briefing on how to upload submissions and documents in Google Classroom. It was prepared as part of an orientation for new Sainik School in-service teacher trainees. As a training officer, my goal is to ensure that you are comfortable and proficient with this essential tool for managing assignments and fostering student engagement.
Acetabularia Information For Class 9 .docxvaibhavrinwa19
Acetabularia acetabulum is a single-celled green alga that in its vegetative state is morphologically differentiated into a basal rhizoid and an axially elongated stalk, which bears whorls of branching hairs. The single diploid nucleus resides in the rhizoid.
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
Model Attribute Check Company Auto PropertyCeline George
In Odoo, the multi-company feature allows you to manage multiple companies within a single Odoo database instance. Each company can have its own configurations while still sharing common resources such as products, customers, and suppliers.
TESDA TM1 REVIEWER FOR NATIONAL ASSESSMENT WRITTEN AND ORAL QUESTIONS WITH A...
Was 2007 - 2009 a housing crisis or an oil crisis?
1. Was 2007 – 2009 a Housing
crisis or an Oil crisis?
Gaetan Lion
July 11, 2012
1
2. Kunstler believes the recent housing-
financial crisis was really an oil crisis
James Kunstler, the author of
“Too Much Magic”, is one of the
main advocates of this view.
2
3. The Data suggests otherwise…
Home price vs Oil price. Standardized variables
4.00
Home price
3.00 Oil price
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
Jan-89
Jan-96
Jan-03
Jan-07
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Using a Case Shiller monthly home price series (for 10 major MSAs) going
back to 1987, and using oil prices from the EIA over the same period; we
observe that home prices peaked in July 2006 or a full two years before oil
prices peaked in July 2008. When oil prices crashed from July 2008 to
February 2009, home prices continued crashing too. That’s the opposite
3
direction of what Kunstler and other Peak Oil advocates suggest.
4. Home Price vs Oil Price Scatter Plot
Home Price vs Oil price. Standardized variables
2.50
Home price. Standardized unit
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00
Oil price. Standardized unit
The scatter plot shows that when oil prices are low, they have a
positive relationship with oil prices (opposite of Peak oil expectations).
When oil prices are high, they have essentially no relationship with
home prices (also not supporting Kunstler’s opinion). 4
5. Home Price change vs Oil Price change
Home Price vs Oil price. 12 mth change
200%
150%
12 mth Oil price change
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
12 mth Home price change
The scatter plot focuses on 12 mth change in such prices.
And, the result is essentially random. Focusing on other
change interval (1 mth, 3 mth, 6 mth) generates very similar
randomness. 5
7. Was the 2007 – 2009 Crisis a Housing
Crisis or an Oil Crisis?
Correlation Matrix
R. GDP gr. H. price chg. Oil price chg.
Real GDP growth 1
H. price chg. 0.58 1
Oil price chg. 0.44 0.00 1
This correlation matrix uses the data on the previous slide. Notice
that over this crisis and post crisis period, the correlation between oil
price change and home price change is zero (no relationship
whatsoever). The correlation between oil price change and real GDP
growth is positive (0.44). That is the wrong sign than what Kunstler
and other Peak Oil advocates have in mind. Finally, the relationship
between home price change and real GDP growth is the strongest
and directionally makes sense. This confirms the financial crisis was
strongly housing related. And, it was not oil related (correlation is off
wrong sign.)
7