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Waiting for China,
What to do in the meantime?


   Havbrukskonferansen
       22 Nov 2011

           Henning Beltestad
       Lerøy Seafood Group ASA
                  CEO




   1          1
Agenda

    1.1   Q3 Lerøy Seafood Group ASA

    2.2   Supply and demand

    3.3   Status China

    4.4   Potential in Asia




2             2
Internal considerations Q3 2011
All figures in NOK mill




                          Q3 - 11   Q3 - 10 Change YTD Q3 2011 YTD Q3 2010 Change   2010
Turnover                   2 304     2 264     2%        6 926       6 314   10 %   8 888
EBITDA                       276       477 -42 %         1 293       1 204    7%    1 806
EBIT bef adj biom            207       424 -51 %         1 093       1 047    4%    1 586
PTP bef adj biom             190       431 -56 %         1 088       1 080    1%    1 623




*) PTP = Pre-Tax Profit

                                                3             3
Rode Beheer B.V.
•Urk, Netherlands
•87 employees
•Processing c.11.5’ GWT raw material, of which c.85% Atlantic salmon
    •Smoked/marinated
    •VAP/convenience
    •Fillets/MAP




                                                Tveitnesvik, Hardanger

                                    4            4
Lerøy Seafood Group - Global organization
                                                        Norway
                                     The
                                 Netherlands
                                                                     Sweden      Finland


                                  Scotland


                 North America                                                                     Japan
                                               France                                      China
                                                                              Turkey


                                             Portugal




Farming
Production
Sales & Distribution
                                                                 5                 5
Atlantic salmon – Supply
in tons WFE


                                      Change              Change              Change              Change              Change
                            2008       07-08    2009       08-09    2010       09-10    2011       10-11    2012       11-12
 Norway                    741 000      2,4 %   855 700    15,5 %   944 600    10,4 %   991 100    4,9 % 1 081 500      9,1 %
 UK                        136 400      1,1 %   144 800     6,2 %   141 800    -2,1 %   154 900    9,2 %    154 200    -0,5 %
 Faroe Island               37 900     98,4 %    48 100    26,9 %    42 100   -12,5 %    56 700   34,7 %     63 500    12,0 %
 Ireland                    11 400    -25,5 %    14 800    29,8 %    17 800    20,3 %    16 000 -10,1 %      16 000     0,0 %
 Total Europe              926 700      3,8 % 1 063 400    14,8 % 1 146 300     7,8 % 1 218 700     6,3 % 1 315 200     7,9 %


 Chile                     403 500     13,2 %   239 100   -40,7 %   129 500   -45,8 %   216 100   66,9 %    313 100    44,9 %
 Canada                    118 500      8,2 %   115 400    -2,6 %   118 000     2,3 %   110 300    -6,5 %   112 500     2,0 %
 Australia                  25 700      8,0 %    32 200    25,3 %    33 000     2,5 %    36 000    9,1 %     37 000     2,8 %
 USA                        17 000     38,2 %    16 400    -3,5 %    18 000     9,8 %    18 500    2,8 %     19 300     4,3 %
 All others                  2 400    -38,5 %     1 700   -29,2 %     1 400   -17,6 %     2 100   50,0 %      3 200    52,4 %
 Total America             567 100     12,1 %   404 800   -28,6 %   299 900   -25,9 %   383 000    27,7 %   485 100    26,7 %


 Total World-wide         1 493 800     6,8 % 1 468 200    -1,7 % 1 446 200    -1,5 % 1 601 700    10,8 % 1 800 300    12,4 %




Figures as per 27.10.11
Source: Kontali                                                6                   6
Market development for Atlantic Salmon from Norway
YTD Q3 2010 vs YTD Q3 2011


                                      TONS (WFE)                                    TNOK
  Region               2010 YTD Q3      2011 YTD Q3        Chng % 2010 YTD AUG     2011 YTD AUG    Chng %
  EU                        434 102         449 256          3,5 %    14 284 628      14 509 666     1,6 %
  Others                     93 642         107 614         14,9 %     3 065 667       3 323 158     8,4 %
  Russia                     64 722           73 132        13,0 %     1 982 676       2 134 052     7,6 %
  USA                        41 222           21 059       -48,9 %     1 716 833         906 932   -47,2 %
  Japan                      20 296           22 713        11,9 %       752 208         872 236    16,0 %
  Totalt                    653 985         673 775          3,0 %    21 802 013      21 746 045    -0,3 %


   (Volume in tons WFE, value in thousand NOK)

    ”Others” is specified on the following slide




     Figures as per 25.10.11
     Source: NSEC/Lerøy                                7               7
Market development for Atlantic Salmon from Norway
YTD Q3 2010 vs YTD Q3 2011
                                 TONS (WFE)                                TNOK
   Country        2010 YTD Q3      2011 YTD Q3    Chng %    2010 YTD Q3    2011 YTD Q3    Chng %
   HONG KONG            14 879           13 710    -7,9 %        566 632        463 814   -18,1 %
   UKRANIE              12 903           14 628    13,4 %        240 119        279 121    16,2 %
   VIETNAM               5 305           13 381   152,2 %        126 847        349 571   175,6 %
   ISRAEL                5 592            9 101    62,8 %        205 577        316 588    54,0 %
   TAIWAN                6 264            7 257    15,9 %        223 605        236 191     5,6 %
   SOUTH KOREA           5 259            6 876    30,8 %        196 613        249 060    26,7 %
   THAILAND              6 454            6 061    -6,1 %        208 398        185 534   -11,0 %
   CHINA                 9 933            5 229   -47,4 %        346 731        154 732   -55,4 %
   SINGAPORE             3 520            4 157    18,1 %        134 237        146 930     9,5 %
   TURKEY                2 933            3 581    22,1 %        102 397        114 542    11,9 %
   SWITZERLAND           2 769            3 247    17,3 %        107 431        133 885    24,6 %
   FHILIPPINE            1 347            2 808   108,4 %         27 201         56 541   107,9 %
   BELARUS               2 412            2 434     0,9 %         57 841         62 871     8,7 %
   CANADA                1 667            2 320    39,1 %         74 106        109 333    47,5 %
   OTHER CONTRIES       12 405           12 824     3,4 %        447 933        464 443     3,7 %
   Total "Others"       93 642          107 614    14,9 %      3 065 667      3 323 158     8,4 %

   (Volume in tons WFE, value in thousand NOK)
    Figures as per 25.10.11
    Source: NSEC/Lerøy                            8               8
Integrated value chain




            9     9
Waiting for China




   www.leroy.no
Norwegian Salmon export after Dec. 8, 2010




            11        11
Business as usual for seafood … except salmon
All shipments of Norwegian Salmon are tested for:
Florfenicol
Flumequine
Lincomycin                             Exports
Spectinomycin                          reduced by
Oxytetracycline                        56% in 2011!
Oxilinic Acid
Sealice
                                       Growth
Anisakis
Crystal violet
                                       estimate in
Paralytic shellfish poisoning          normal times
Staphylococcus aureus                  - 30% above
Vibrio parahaemolyticus                last year.
Vibrio cholerae
Listeria monocytogenes
                            12        12
Our customers hit the hardest

                         • Can Norwegian
                          exporters motivate
                          Norwegian
                          authorities?

                         •FHL, MoF, MoFA

                         •What is Norway doing
                          to initiate dialog with
                          China?


                    13         13
Fossen launched
in China

• Launched in October in
  high-end supermarkets




  14       14
Potential in Asia

Highlights:
•South-Korea:49 millions
•Taiwan: 23 millions
•Singapore: 5 millions
•Indonesia:237 millions

•Southeast-Asia: 447 million
people (Indonesia,
Philipines, Malaysia,
Singapore, Taiwan,
Thailand, Vietnam)

•India: 1,2 billion people
  15         15
KOREA: Local farmed halibut dominate the sahsimi segment with
Norwegian Salmon, but exports are still low. Only local smoked salmon




           16               16
Potential in Asia

• Increasing middle class and economic growth
• Tourism increasing
• Huge differences between countries
• Consentration around large cities: Bangkok, Taipei, KL.
• From wetmarket to modern retail; important distribution
  channel for Norwegian Salmon
• Salmon present in hotels and in the growing number of
  sushi chains and high-end supermarkets

• Lack of knowledge about salmon and Norway
• Competition from Chile
• Sushi/sashimi is popular – advantage fresh Norwegian
  Salmon


                               17         17
BRIC middle class increase by 800 million




                , NSEC
                         18   18
Incredible India




         19        19
India: world’s largest population in 2030


                     • 1,2 billion people
                     • 2030: no.1 population
                     • ¾ lives in rural areas
                     • Third largest economy in Asia
                       and Oceania, after Japan and
                       China
                     • Increasing middle class
                     • One of the poorest countries in
                       the world
                     • Big differences – rich and poor



                         20     20
Trade barrieres Norwegian Salmon




2006: Kronprinsparet besøkte India. Foto: EFF/Kjartan Mærstad


 • 30% tariff on salmon, excluding whole salmon which was
   reduced to 12% in 2006
 • EFTA negotiations ongoing

                                                                21   21
Indias retail sector
                                                             2010        2015
•Modern retail outlets holds a small                         Number Number
 share of the grocery market               Company           Of       Of
                                                             Outlets Outlets
•One of the least developed retail
                                           Future Group           437     923
 markets in the world
                                           Reliance Retail       604           1 169
•Supermarket is the dominating type at
 present                                   Walmart                   5              50
•Hypermarkets will increase (Dairy Farm,   Aditya Birla          543              743
 Metro Group) Food rite, SPAR, Walmart,    Metro Group               6              18
 Tesco and Carrefour
                                           Grand Total         1 595           2 903
•Restrictions on foreign ownership,                                 Kilde: Planet Retail
 100% foreign ownership only allowed in
 cash& carry segment
•Undeveloped distribution channels


                               22          22
23   23

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Henning Beltestad - CEO Lerøy Seafood Group -Waiting for China, What to do in the meantime?

  • 1. Waiting for China, What to do in the meantime? Havbrukskonferansen 22 Nov 2011 Henning Beltestad Lerøy Seafood Group ASA CEO 1 1
  • 2. Agenda 1.1 Q3 Lerøy Seafood Group ASA 2.2 Supply and demand 3.3 Status China 4.4 Potential in Asia 2 2
  • 3. Internal considerations Q3 2011 All figures in NOK mill Q3 - 11 Q3 - 10 Change YTD Q3 2011 YTD Q3 2010 Change 2010 Turnover 2 304 2 264 2% 6 926 6 314 10 % 8 888 EBITDA 276 477 -42 % 1 293 1 204 7% 1 806 EBIT bef adj biom 207 424 -51 % 1 093 1 047 4% 1 586 PTP bef adj biom 190 431 -56 % 1 088 1 080 1% 1 623 *) PTP = Pre-Tax Profit 3 3
  • 4. Rode Beheer B.V. •Urk, Netherlands •87 employees •Processing c.11.5’ GWT raw material, of which c.85% Atlantic salmon •Smoked/marinated •VAP/convenience •Fillets/MAP Tveitnesvik, Hardanger 4 4
  • 5. Lerøy Seafood Group - Global organization Norway The Netherlands Sweden Finland Scotland North America Japan France China Turkey Portugal Farming Production Sales & Distribution 5 5
  • 6. Atlantic salmon – Supply in tons WFE Change Change Change Change Change 2008 07-08 2009 08-09 2010 09-10 2011 10-11 2012 11-12 Norway 741 000 2,4 % 855 700 15,5 % 944 600 10,4 % 991 100 4,9 % 1 081 500 9,1 % UK 136 400 1,1 % 144 800 6,2 % 141 800 -2,1 % 154 900 9,2 % 154 200 -0,5 % Faroe Island 37 900 98,4 % 48 100 26,9 % 42 100 -12,5 % 56 700 34,7 % 63 500 12,0 % Ireland 11 400 -25,5 % 14 800 29,8 % 17 800 20,3 % 16 000 -10,1 % 16 000 0,0 % Total Europe 926 700 3,8 % 1 063 400 14,8 % 1 146 300 7,8 % 1 218 700 6,3 % 1 315 200 7,9 % Chile 403 500 13,2 % 239 100 -40,7 % 129 500 -45,8 % 216 100 66,9 % 313 100 44,9 % Canada 118 500 8,2 % 115 400 -2,6 % 118 000 2,3 % 110 300 -6,5 % 112 500 2,0 % Australia 25 700 8,0 % 32 200 25,3 % 33 000 2,5 % 36 000 9,1 % 37 000 2,8 % USA 17 000 38,2 % 16 400 -3,5 % 18 000 9,8 % 18 500 2,8 % 19 300 4,3 % All others 2 400 -38,5 % 1 700 -29,2 % 1 400 -17,6 % 2 100 50,0 % 3 200 52,4 % Total America 567 100 12,1 % 404 800 -28,6 % 299 900 -25,9 % 383 000 27,7 % 485 100 26,7 % Total World-wide 1 493 800 6,8 % 1 468 200 -1,7 % 1 446 200 -1,5 % 1 601 700 10,8 % 1 800 300 12,4 % Figures as per 27.10.11 Source: Kontali 6 6
  • 7. Market development for Atlantic Salmon from Norway YTD Q3 2010 vs YTD Q3 2011 TONS (WFE) TNOK Region 2010 YTD Q3 2011 YTD Q3 Chng % 2010 YTD AUG 2011 YTD AUG Chng % EU 434 102 449 256 3,5 % 14 284 628 14 509 666 1,6 % Others 93 642 107 614 14,9 % 3 065 667 3 323 158 8,4 % Russia 64 722 73 132 13,0 % 1 982 676 2 134 052 7,6 % USA 41 222 21 059 -48,9 % 1 716 833 906 932 -47,2 % Japan 20 296 22 713 11,9 % 752 208 872 236 16,0 % Totalt 653 985 673 775 3,0 % 21 802 013 21 746 045 -0,3 % (Volume in tons WFE, value in thousand NOK) ”Others” is specified on the following slide Figures as per 25.10.11 Source: NSEC/Lerøy 7 7
  • 8. Market development for Atlantic Salmon from Norway YTD Q3 2010 vs YTD Q3 2011 TONS (WFE) TNOK Country 2010 YTD Q3 2011 YTD Q3 Chng % 2010 YTD Q3 2011 YTD Q3 Chng % HONG KONG 14 879 13 710 -7,9 % 566 632 463 814 -18,1 % UKRANIE 12 903 14 628 13,4 % 240 119 279 121 16,2 % VIETNAM 5 305 13 381 152,2 % 126 847 349 571 175,6 % ISRAEL 5 592 9 101 62,8 % 205 577 316 588 54,0 % TAIWAN 6 264 7 257 15,9 % 223 605 236 191 5,6 % SOUTH KOREA 5 259 6 876 30,8 % 196 613 249 060 26,7 % THAILAND 6 454 6 061 -6,1 % 208 398 185 534 -11,0 % CHINA 9 933 5 229 -47,4 % 346 731 154 732 -55,4 % SINGAPORE 3 520 4 157 18,1 % 134 237 146 930 9,5 % TURKEY 2 933 3 581 22,1 % 102 397 114 542 11,9 % SWITZERLAND 2 769 3 247 17,3 % 107 431 133 885 24,6 % FHILIPPINE 1 347 2 808 108,4 % 27 201 56 541 107,9 % BELARUS 2 412 2 434 0,9 % 57 841 62 871 8,7 % CANADA 1 667 2 320 39,1 % 74 106 109 333 47,5 % OTHER CONTRIES 12 405 12 824 3,4 % 447 933 464 443 3,7 % Total "Others" 93 642 107 614 14,9 % 3 065 667 3 323 158 8,4 % (Volume in tons WFE, value in thousand NOK) Figures as per 25.10.11 Source: NSEC/Lerøy 8 8
  • 10. Waiting for China www.leroy.no
  • 11. Norwegian Salmon export after Dec. 8, 2010 11 11
  • 12. Business as usual for seafood … except salmon All shipments of Norwegian Salmon are tested for: Florfenicol Flumequine Lincomycin Exports Spectinomycin reduced by Oxytetracycline 56% in 2011! Oxilinic Acid Sealice Growth Anisakis Crystal violet estimate in Paralytic shellfish poisoning normal times Staphylococcus aureus - 30% above Vibrio parahaemolyticus last year. Vibrio cholerae Listeria monocytogenes 12 12
  • 13. Our customers hit the hardest • Can Norwegian exporters motivate Norwegian authorities? •FHL, MoF, MoFA •What is Norway doing to initiate dialog with China? 13 13
  • 14. Fossen launched in China • Launched in October in high-end supermarkets 14 14
  • 15. Potential in Asia Highlights: •South-Korea:49 millions •Taiwan: 23 millions •Singapore: 5 millions •Indonesia:237 millions •Southeast-Asia: 447 million people (Indonesia, Philipines, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam) •India: 1,2 billion people 15 15
  • 16. KOREA: Local farmed halibut dominate the sahsimi segment with Norwegian Salmon, but exports are still low. Only local smoked salmon 16 16
  • 17. Potential in Asia • Increasing middle class and economic growth • Tourism increasing • Huge differences between countries • Consentration around large cities: Bangkok, Taipei, KL. • From wetmarket to modern retail; important distribution channel for Norwegian Salmon • Salmon present in hotels and in the growing number of sushi chains and high-end supermarkets • Lack of knowledge about salmon and Norway • Competition from Chile • Sushi/sashimi is popular – advantage fresh Norwegian Salmon 17 17
  • 18. BRIC middle class increase by 800 million , NSEC 18 18
  • 20. India: world’s largest population in 2030 • 1,2 billion people • 2030: no.1 population • ¾ lives in rural areas • Third largest economy in Asia and Oceania, after Japan and China • Increasing middle class • One of the poorest countries in the world • Big differences – rich and poor 20 20
  • 21. Trade barrieres Norwegian Salmon 2006: Kronprinsparet besøkte India. Foto: EFF/Kjartan Mærstad • 30% tariff on salmon, excluding whole salmon which was reduced to 12% in 2006 • EFTA negotiations ongoing 21 21
  • 22. Indias retail sector 2010 2015 •Modern retail outlets holds a small Number Number share of the grocery market Company Of Of Outlets Outlets •One of the least developed retail Future Group 437 923 markets in the world Reliance Retail 604 1 169 •Supermarket is the dominating type at present Walmart 5 50 •Hypermarkets will increase (Dairy Farm, Aditya Birla 543 743 Metro Group) Food rite, SPAR, Walmart, Metro Group 6 18 Tesco and Carrefour Grand Total 1 595 2 903 •Restrictions on foreign ownership, Kilde: Planet Retail 100% foreign ownership only allowed in cash& carry segment •Undeveloped distribution channels 22 22
  • 23. 23 23