Laks - fra introduksjonsfase til vekstfase?

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Bjørn-Erik Stabell og Paul T. Aandahls foredrag på Havbrukskonferansen 2013 argumenterer for at laks er på vei fra introduksjonsfase til vekstfase.

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Laks - fra introduksjonsfase til vekstfase?

  1. 1. LAKS - GLOBAL INTRODUKSJONSELLER VEKSTFASE? Havbrukskonferansen 2013 Paul Aandahl & Bjørn-Erik Stabell
  2. 2. GLOBAL TRADE OF SEAFOOD 2002 SALMONIDS
  3. 3. GLOBAL TRADE OF SEAFOOD 2013 ESTIMATE SALMONIDS
  4. 4. GLOBAL ATLANTIC SALMON MARKET DEMAND GROWTH 4,50 2010 2013 (estimate) 16% 14% 4,00 12% 2006 10% Price, EUR 3,50 Price 2002 3,00 8% Linear (Price) 6% 4% 2,50 2% 0% 2,00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Volume, WFE Export figures from producing countries 4 year average *Elasticity 1.1, Value EUR/Volume WFE
  5. 5. GLOBAL ATLANTIC SALMON MARKET INCREASE FOR FRESH SALMON* 1 600 000 1 400 000 1 200 000 MT WFE 1 000 000 800 000 Fresh 600 000 400 000 200 000 0 *Export of Atlantic salmon from producing countries Frozen
  6. 6. GLOBAL ATLANTIC SALMON MARKET - CHANGE IN VOLUME 2002-2013 500 000 800% 450 000 700% 400 000 600% 350 000 More people are buying salmon 500% MT WFE 300 000 250 000 400% Absolute Relative 200 000 300% 150 000 200% 100 000 100% 50 000 0 0% ASIA EU Eastern Europe South - America Export figures from Norway, UK, Faroe Islands, Canada & Chile North America
  7. 7. GLOBAL SALMON MARKET: SALMON & MEGATRENDS
  8. 8. NSC INSIGHTS – AT WHICH OCCASIONS DO WE EAT SALMON? At home on a weekday 60 50 40 At the home family/friends 30 At home at the weekends 20 10 0 At nice restaurants Salmon Cod At home for parties At informal restaurants Source: Seafood Consumer Insight (SCI), TNS Gallup/NSC 2013 , Country(s): Finland, France, Germany, Great Britain, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden
  9. 9. WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO EAT FOR.. Salmon: No. 1 Everyday dinner Salmon: No. 1 Weekend dinner Salmon: No. 2 Restaurants Source: Seafood Consumer Insight (SCI), TNS Gallup/NSC 2012
  10. 10. A BRIGHT FUTURE……. THE GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR NORWEGIAN SALMON WILL BE EVEN STRONGER THE NEXT 15 YEARS THAN IT HAS BEEN IN THE PREVIOUS 15 YEARS.
  11. 11. 1. INCREASED GROWTH – INNOVATION & DISTRIBUTION Example 1: Fresh salmon in hard discount in Germany NEW PRODUCT IN TRADITIONAL TRADE CHANNELS
  12. 12. 1. INCREASED GROWTH – INNOVATION & DISTRIBUTION Example 1: Fresh salmon in hard discount in Germany NEW PRODUCT IN TRADITIONAL TRADE CHANNELS Example 2: Fresh salmon in sushi bar in Tromsø, Norway
  13. 13. 2. INCREASED GROWTH : THE DEMAND FOR SALMON JUST PASSED THE «TIPPING POINT» Source: Malcolm Gladwell – Tipping Point
  14. 14. 3. INCREASED GROWTH: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Source: Homi Kharas; The emerging middle class in developing countries; OECD; Januar 2010
  15. 15. 3. INCREASED GROWTH: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 2003 Example Russia St. Petersburg/ Moskva 96% Other 4% Other 57 % 2012 St. Petersburg/ Moskva 96%
  16. 16. WHAT IF……… OUR CAPABILTY TO GROW PRODUCTION IN LINE WITH THE INCREASED GROWTH IN DEMAND
  17. 17. SUMMARY THE GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR NORWEGIAN SALMON WILL BE EVEN STRONGER THE NEXT 15 YEARS THAN IT HAS BEEN IN THE PREVIOUS 15 YEARS.
  18. 18. THANK YOU

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