Sverre Søraa - Markedsperspektiv for norsk laks i 2012 - Coast Seafood

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Sverre Søraa fra Coast Seafood om markedsperspektiv for norsk laks på Miniseminar Laks 13. April i Oslo.

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Sverre Søraa - Markedsperspektiv for norsk laks i 2012 - Coast Seafood

  1. 1. Production and Market update,April 2012 Based on Kontali Analyse data
  2. 2. Key production parameters Atlantic salmon Loss rate - Atlantic salmon Smolt release Atlantic salmon 35 180 000 160 000 30 140 000 25 120 000 20 100 000 15 80 000 60 000 S1 10 S1 40 000 S0 5 20 000 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 03G 04G 05G 06G 07G 08G 09G 10G est 11G estSmolt release 134 500 152 000 13 % 162 000 7% 182 200 12 % 207 000 14 % 230 000 11 % 237 000 3% 256 000 8% 280 500 10 %Loss rate (in % of numbers) 22.1 19.5 -12 % 18.9 -3 % 19.3 2% 22.2 15 % 19.7 -11 % 20.2 2% 21.0 4%Yield - hq kg wfe per released smolt 3.64 3.90 7% 4.21 8% 4.15 -1 % 3.78 -9 % 4.06 7% 4.12 1% 4.18 1%Harvest weight 4.67 4.84 4% 5.19 7% 5.14 -1 % 4.85 -6 % 5.06 4% 5.16 2% 5.29 2%BFCR - live weight 2 011.00 1.12 ##### 1.14 2% 1.12 -1 % 1.12 0% 1.13 0% 1.14 1% 1.14 0%EFCR - gutted weight 1.46 1.46 0% 1.47 0% 1.44 -2 % 1.48 2% 1.46 -1 % 1.46 0% 1.48 1%
  3. 3. Mid 18.0 4 Y Max-Min RAnge 2012 Actual 16.0 14.0 12.0 Sea temperatures 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 West North20.0 14.0 4 Y Max-Min Range 2012 Actual 4 Y Max-Min RAnge 2012 Actual 12.016.0 10.012.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
  4. 4. Feed sales salmon and trout Norway Endring % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 11/12January 44 700 67 700 63 800 71 200 69 200 71 000 102 400 44 %February 39 100 52 300 54 600 58 000 56 400 55 800 85 000 52 %Total 83 800 120 000 118 400 129 200 125 600 126 800 187 400 48 %March 43 900 55 800 57 100 54 100 61 900 61 000April 41 300 65 300 59 300 65 700 62 700 62 300May 67 600 78 000 76 200 87 100 89 300 101 700June 83 600 92 900 97 500 120 300 117 800 122 100July 118 200 132 700 130 000 159 200 153 800 167 300August 132 400 150 900 147 800 175 400 184 400 205 400September 125 100 134 800 157 000 172 500 178 500 212 600October 121 700 133 600 147 900 159 100 161 400 178 600November 92 100 98 600 113 100 135 800 132 400 150 900December 78 200 73 700 96 300 111 200 97 500 120 300Year total 987 900 1 136 300 1 200 600 1 369 600 1 365 300 1 509 000Source: Fishfeed Producers Organisation (FPF). 20.03.2012The statistics include sale of dry feed to farms and smolt plants in Norway for all species of fish. Kontali Analyse AShas estimated the share that is used for salmon production in fish farms.
  5. 5. Biomass Atlantic salmon NorwayEstim ated stock 01.02.2012 Estim ated stock 01.02.2011 Chg %10 G S1 16 300 a 5.0 82 000 09 G S1 16 100 a 5.2 83 200 S0 83 500 a 3.7 312 600 S0 75 100 a 3.8 283 30011 G S1 128 200 a 1.6 208 700 10 G S1 118 800 a 1.6 186 600 S0 117 100 a 0.5 55 200 S0 110 900 a 0.3 38 300Total stock (r.w .) 658 500 Total stock (r.w .) 591 400 11 %Harvested 82 800 Harvested 65 100Net grow th 59 700 Net grow th 39 400Change -23 100 Change -25 700Estim ated stock per 28.02.2012 Estim ated stock per 28.02.201110 G S1 8 700 a 5.0 43 400 09 G S1 9 100 a 5.2 47 600 S0 74 800 a 4.0 298 800 S0 68 900 a 4.0 273 20011 G S1 127 300 a 1.8 230 500 10 G S1 117 800 a 1.7 201 400 S0 114 200 a 0.5 62 400 S0 109 900 a 0.4 43 30012 G S1 3 000 a 0.1 300 11G S1 1 900 a 0.1 200Total stock (r.w .) 635 400 Total stock (r.w .) 565 700 12 %Converted gutted w eight 572 000 Converted gutted w eight 509 000
  6. 6. Biomass Trout Norway 1000 FISH/TONNES WFE (ROUND BLED WEIGHT)Estimated biomass per 2012-02-29 Estimated biomass per 2011-02-29 Change %10G 4 300 a 3.8 16 500 09G 2 900 a 3.9 11 40011G 18 900 a 1.4 26 100 10G 16 500 a 1.2 19 10012 G 1 000 a 0.1 70 11G 1 000 a 0.1 80Total biomass per 2012-02-29 42 700 Total biomass per 2011-02-29 30 600 40 %Converted live weight 45 900 Converted live weight 32 900Converted gutted weight 38 000 Converted gutted weight 28 000The figures are calculated and not based on collected data from the farms 23.03.12
  7. 7. Exchange rates10.00 93.00 13.00 NOK/EUR NOK/SEK 12.50 NOK/GBP 91.00 9.50 12.00 89.00 11.50 9.00 87.00 11.00 8.50 85.00 10.50 10.00 83.00 8.00 9.50 81.00 9.00 7.50 79.00 8.50 7.00 77.00 8.00 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 7.50 8.00 NOK/USD NOK/JPY 7.50 7.00 7.00 6.50 6.50 6.00 6.00 5.50 5.50 5.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.00 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  8. 8. Chilean Atl. salmon export trends Jan - Jan Total export volume by month (all products) in tonnes Total export value by month (all products) in 1 000 WFE USD35 000 140 000 130 000 201130 000 2011 120 000 2012 2012 110 00025 000 100 00020 000 90 000 80 00015 000 70 00010 000 60 000 50 000 5 000 40 000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Month
  9. 9. Share of processing Norway and Chile Atlantic salmon Trout80 % 30 000 70 % 12 00070 % 25 000 60 % 10 00060 % Chile nom 50 % Chile nom 20 000 8 00050 % Norway 40 %40 % 15 000 Norway nom 6 000 nom 30 %30 % Chile % 10 000 4 000 Chile %20 % 20 % 5 000 Norway % 2 000 Norway %10 % 10 % 0% 0 0% 0 nov nov nov mai mai mai sep sep sep jan mar jul jul jan mar jan mar jul jan nov nov nov mai mai mai sep sep sep jan mar jul jul jan mar jan mar jul jan Small increase of vap product
  10. 10. Chilean Atl. salmon export trends Jan - Jan Fersk Frossen Fersk filet Frossen filet Røkt/Saltet Diverse All figures in tonnes WFE Fresh Frozen Fresh fillets Frozen fillets Sm oked/Salted Other Totalt % 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 changeUSA 68 37 31 44 8 045 3 573 689 300 479 319 1 476 1 239 10 788 5 512 96 %Brazil 3 555 2 393 73 149 123 34 244 239 15 40 33 0 4 042 2 855 42 %Canada 0 5 0 0 57 64 67 117 0 0 31 49 156 235 -34 %Other America 431 293 447 285 240 190 774 144 70 44 23 28 1 985 984 102 %Total Am erica 4 054 2 728 552 479 8 465 3 861 1 774 799 563 403 1 563 1 317 16 972 9 587 77 %Japan 0 0 85 11 0 0 512 228 13 26 3 0 612 266 130 %China 0 0 239 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 239 58 310 %South Korea 0 0 181 351 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 181 351 -48 %Remaining Far East 0 0 549 129 0 0 96 71 0 1 78 0 723 202 258 %Total Far East 0 0 1 054 550 0 0 608 300 13 27 81 0 1 755 877 100 %Germany 0 0 0 0 0 0 147 256 0 0 105 0 252 256 -2 %France 0 0 0 0 37 0 379 30 4 0 610 293 1 031 323 219 %Other EU 4 0 85 0 13 0 303 158 0 0 80 34 486 192 153 %Total EU 4 0 85 0 50 0 829 445 4 0 796 327 1 769 772 129 %Other Europe 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 0Russia 0 0 212 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 0 243 68 260 %Others 1 0 235 0 1 0 56 0 1 0 0 0 294 0Total 4 059 2 728 2 176 1 096 8 517 3 861 3 340 1 544 581 430 2 471 1 643 21 144 11 303 87 %
  11. 11. Chilean Trout export trends Jan - Jan All figures in tonnes WFE Fresh Frozen Fresh fillets Frozen fillets Sm oked/Salted Other Totalt % 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 changeJapan 0 0 3 976 5 169 33 0 6 191 6 304 0 0 471 345 10 671 11 817 -10 %Thailand 0 0 1 482 1 975 0 0 102 0 0 0 63 0 1 647 1 975 -17 %China 0 0 979 440 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 979 440 122 %USA 0 0 38 0 1 236 1 374 207 257 0 0 52 46 1 534 1 677 -9 %Russia 0 0 1 537 2 148 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 1 548 2 148 -28 %EU 0 0 41 48 0 0 10 41 0 0 34 83 85 172 -51 %Other Europe 0 0 0 292 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 310 -100 %Others 25 376 498 596 38 28 356 1 022 0 0 2 70 918 2 092 -56 %Total 25 376 9 010 10 977 1 307 1 402 6 907 7 641 0 0 634 578 17 883 20 973 -15 % Total export volume by month Total export value by month (all products) in tonnes WFE (all products) in 1 000 USD 24 000 130 000 2011 2012 2011 2012 20 000 110 000 90 000 16 000 70 000 12 000 50 000 8 000 30 000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Month
  12. 12. Harvest Atlantic salmon World Wide in tonnes wfe January 2008 2009 2010 % ch. 2011E % ch. 2012E % ch.Norway 740 900 855 700 944 600 10 % 1 005 600 6 % 1 091 300 9%Chile 403 500 239 100 129 600 -46 % 222 000 71 % 352 100 59 %UK 136 400 144 800 141 800 -2 % 157 500 11 % 146 000 -7 %Canada 118 500 115 400 118 000 2% 109 900 -7 % 114 000 4%Ireland 11 400 14 800 17 800 20 % 15 800 -11 % 16 000 1%Faroe Islands 37 900 48 100 42 100 -12 % 56 500 34 % 65 400 16 %USA 17 000 16 400 18 000 10 % 18 500 3% 19 300 4%Australia 25 700 32 200 33 000 2% 36 000 9% 37 000 3%Others 2 400 1 700 1 400 -18 % 2 100 50 % 3 200 52 %TOTAL 1 494 000 1 468 000 1 446 000 -1 % 1 624 000 12 % 1 844 000 14 %
  13. 13. Harvest Atlantic salmon World Widein tonnes wfe MARCH 2008 2009 2010 % ch. 2011E % ch. 2012E % ch.Norway 740 900 855 700 944 600 10 % 1 005 600 6 % 1 128 900 12 %Chile 403 500 239 100 129 600 -46 % 221 000 71 % 357 600 62 %UK 136 400 144 800 141 800 -2 % 154 700 9% 149 200 -4 %Canada 118 500 115 400 118 000 2% 110 000 -7 % 115 000 5%Ireland 11 400 14 800 17 800 20 % 15 800 -11 % 16 000 1%Faroe Islands 36 900 47 500 41 700 -12 % 55 500 33 % 60 600 9%USA 17 000 16 400 18 000 10 % 18 500 3% 19 900 8%Australia 25 700 32 200 33 000 2% 36 000 9% 37 000 3%Others 2 400 1 700 1 400 -18 % 2 100 50 % 3 200 52 %TOTAL 1 493 000 1 468 000 1 446 000 -1 % 1 619 000 12 % 1 887 000 17 %
  14. 14. Supply/Consumption Atlantic salmon in tonnes wfe EU USA 2010e 10/09 2011e 11/10 2012e 12/11 2010e 10/09 2011e 11/10 2012e 12/11Q1 169 000 -2 % 158 800 -6 % 194 200 22 % 65 900 -16 % 62 400 -5 % 75 800 21 %Q2 170 100 -4 % 183 300 8% 204 100 11 % 64 900 -8 % 67 800 4% 76 500 13 %Q3 181 000 -6 % 200 700 11 % 228 200 14 % 61 700 -9 % 78 500 27 % 82 500 5%Q4 216 900 -3 % 238 900 10 % 258 600 8% 64 600 1% 79 700 23 % 95 300 20 %Total 737 000 -4 % 781 700 6% 885 100 13 % 257 100 -9 % 288 400 12 % 330 100 14 % Japan Russia 2010e 10/09 2011e 11/10 2012e 12/11 2010e 10/09 2011e 11/10 2012e 12/11Q1 8 600 -28 % 9 400 9% 13 800 47 % 21 000 33 % 23 000 10 % 39 200 70 %Q2 7 300 -25 % 8 700 19 % 13 000 49 % 21 400 30 % 22 100 3% 35 800 62 %Q3 7 300 -6 % 10 700 47 % 13 100 22 % 24 100 20 % 31 700 32 % 38 400 21 %Q4 10 500 0% 16 700 59 % 16 000 -4 % 33 000 27 % 47 000 42 % 48 500 3%Total 33 700 -16 % 45 500 35 % 55 900 23 % 99 500 27 % 123 800 24 % 161 900 31 %
  15. 15. Year to date…..
  16. 16. Supply/Consumption Atlantic salmon ASIAin tonnes wfe 20000 100 % 90 % 18000 80 % 16000 70 %Tonnes WFE 60 % ch 11/12 14000 50 % 2010 12000 2011 40 % 10000 30 % 2012 20 % 8000 10 % 6000 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
  17. 17. Supply/Consumption Atlantic salmon Latin Americain tonnes wfe 8000 150 % 7000 130 % 6000 110 %Tonnes WFE ch 11/12 5000 90 % 2012 4000 70 % 2010 3000 50 % 2011 2000 30 % 1000 10 % 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
  18. 18. Totalvolum (Wfe) og snittpris (fersk filet) 1998-2011 350,000 12.00 300,000 10.00 250,000 2002 295.000 tonn 8.00 UDS 4,37/kg 200,000Tonn/USD 2009 6.00 300.000 tonn 150,000 UDS 8,76/kg 4.00 100,000 USA representerer ca. 20% av det globale 2.00 50,000 markedet for Atlantisk laks 0 0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TONN 142,99 168,03 206,22 261,11 295,98 308,66 295,10 314,00 315,14 326,49 315,46 299,23 242,26 281,45 USD/KG 5.27 5.73 5.64 4.76 4.37 4.87 4.87 5.29 6.70 6.90 6.99 8.76 10.76 10.00
  19. 19. Status• USA markedet er i Oppgang• grunna sterkere kjøpekraft og• lavere laksepriser sammenlignet med alternative proteinkilder
  20. 20. TOP 20 Markets - Actual growth
  21. 21. TOP 20 Relative growth(for markets larger than 2000 tons wfe in 2011)
  22. 22. Retail Price Quotations – France Price for Salmon* vs Meat** Jan 2001 – Mar 2012 * Avg. price whole salmon + salmon fillet ** Avg. price chicken, pork and bouvine meat
  23. 23. Retail Price Quotations – FrancePrice for Salmon* vs Other Fish** Jan 2001 – Mar 2012* Avg. price whole salmon + salmon fillet** Avg. price fillet of cod, saithe & whiting + whole hake &sole
  24. 24. EU Market – Supply Trend March 2012 % ch. % ch. % ch. 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 10/09 11/10 12/11January 58 600 54 600 -7 % 51 600 -5 % 60 400 17 %February 53 000 52 200 -2 % 49 100 -6 % 62 400 27 %March 60 200 62 200 3% 58 100 -7 % 71 400 23 %April 58 300 53 700 -8 % 56 600 5% 63 600 12 %May 59 400 56 300 -5 % 61 300 9% 68 000 11 %June 59 500 60 100 1% 65 400 9% 72 500 11 %July 61 800 59 300 -4 % 63 000 6% 70 100 11 %August 62 200 55 600 -11 % 62 200 12 % 74 000 19 %September 68 900 66 100 -4 % 75 500 14 % 84 100 11 %October 75 100 71 300 -5 % 75 200 5% 86 600 15 %November 73 400 70 800 -4 % 80 600 14 % 86 100 7%December 75 500 74 800 -1 % 83 100 11 % 85 900 3%Total 765 900 737 000 -4 % 781 700 6% 885 100 13 %Suppliers Change Change 2009 2010 % ch. 2011E % ch. 2012E % ch. 2010-2011 2011-2012Norway 591 600 615 300 4% 648 500 5% 712 300 10 % 33 200 63 800UK 110 200 97 600 -11 % 92 700 -5 % 101 800 10 % -4 900 9 100Faeroe Isl. 30 000 26 300 -12 % 29 900 14 % 38 000 27 % 3 600 8 100Ireland 14 600 17 100 17 % 15 400 -10 % 15 600 1% -1 700 200Chile 39 800 10 600 -73 % 17 200 62 % 39 400 129 % 6 600 22 200Other 500 300 -40 % 700 133 % 700 0% 400 -Re-export -20 900 -30 300 45 % -22 700 -25 % -22 700 0% 7 600 -Total volume 765 800 736 900 -4 % 781 700 6% 885 100 13 % 44 800 103 400
  25. 25. Global Supply Atlantic salmon (tonnes wfe) 2008 2009 % ch. 2010 % ch. 2011E % ch. 2012E % ch.Jan 116 700 122 100 5% 109 600 -10 % 108 800 -1 % 136 500 25 %Feb 111 200 111 300 0% 107 300 -4 % 104 100 -3 % 139 700 34 %Mar 113 500 128 800 13 % 123 200 -4 % 121 800 -1 % 152 200 25 %Apr 113 200 121 700 8% 104 000 -15 % 111 700 7% 138 900 24 %May 123 600 115 600 -6 % 110 400 -4 % 120 600 9% 143 800 19 %Jun 118 200 119 000 1% 119 300 0% 129 200 8% 149 800 16 %Jul 119 900 119 300 -1 % 115 000 -4 % 132 600 15 % 149 800 13 %Aug 116 800 119 700 2% 110 700 -8 % 131 900 19 % 154 600 17 %Sep 127 700 130 100 2% 127 100 -2 % 156 500 23 % 172 500 10 %Oct 132 900 137 500 3% 136 900 0% 158 700 16 % 182 000 15 %Nov 132 700 136 700 3% 140 700 3% 168 300 20 % 185 500 10 %Dec 140 500 143 100 2% 141 300 -1 % 172 000 22 % 184 400 7%Total 1 466 900 1 504 900 3 % 1 445 500 -4 % 1 616 200 12 % 1 889 700 17 %
  26. 26. Markedsutvikling 2012
  27. 27. Markedsutvikling 2012

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