Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptx
To Hedge or Not to Hedge
1. 1
To Hedge or Not to HedgeTo Hedge or Not to Hedge
Riding the AUD RollercoasterRiding the AUD Rollercoaster
Paul Travers
Executive Director - Oakvale Capital Limited
26 March 2009
Currency Hedging in Turbulent TimesCurrency Hedging in Turbulent Times
March 2010March 2010
4. 4
Currency HedgingCurrency Hedging
No hedging – volatile results – See Caltex
Hedging – long term currency hedging – Miners with
market values in hedges outstripping equity value
Hedging at the peaks –hedges being done when the pain
has become to much – then the market retraces
Unwinding on lows – large negative mark to markets –
Terminate the hedge – currency retraces – underlying
value is lost – hedge becomes a loss
Looks like a losing ‘bet’ either way!
5. 5
To Hedge or not to Hedge?
Not a view on the currency trend but
an understanding of the business
The Critical Question:
How does currency risk manifest
itself?
6. 6
Key Issue: Understand the impact of currency risk on
the organisation.
Type and Source ofType and Source of
Currency RiskCurrency Risk
Key Consideration: Segment Your Currency Risk
Contracted Transactions Risk
Forecasted Transactions Risk
One-off Currency Risk
Translation Currency Risk
Economic Currency Risk
7. 7
Contract to sell/purchase goods/services in foreign country
(in either a foreign currency or in $A)
Type and Source of CurrencyType and Source of Currency
RiskRisk
Contracted Transaction RiskContracted Transaction Risk
Ability to pass on risk
i.e. currency adjustment clause
No Currency Risk Limited Currency Risk Currency Risk
Limited ability to pass
on risk
No ability to pass on
risk
8. 8
Forecasted Transactions Risk
Ability to pass on risk
i.e. currency adjustment clause
Limited ability to pass
on risk
No ability to pass on
risk
No Currency Risk Limited Currency Risk Currency Risk
Type and Source of CurrencyType and Source of Currency
RiskRisk
Contracted Transaction RiskContracted Transaction Risk
9. 9
One Off Currency Risk
Ability to pass on risk
i.e. currency adjustment clause
Limited ability to pass
on risk
No ability to pass on
risk
No Currency Risk Limited Currency Risk Currency Risk
Given the likely size of material one off exposures - obtain
advice before attempting risk management
Type and Source of CurrencyType and Source of Currency
RiskRisk
Contracted Transaction RiskContracted Transaction Risk
10. 10
Currency Balance Sheet Items
Currency Risk Currency Risk
Investment / Liability
with set life
Long term investment /
Liability
Type and Source of CurrencyType and Source of Currency
RiskRisk
Contracted Transaction RiskContracted Transaction Risk
11. 11
There is no right or wrong risk management
technique in relation to economic currency risk
The right approach needs to address:
Cost/benefit analysis of hedge;
Board’s attitude towards risk;
Organisation’s risk management framework and
ability; and
Investors’ view of the organisation.
Type and Source of CurrencyType and Source of Currency
RiskRisk
Contracted Transaction RiskContracted Transaction Risk
12. 12
Should IAS 39 stop youShould IAS 39 stop you
managing currency risk?managing currency risk?
Overall Risk Management Approach
Should not impact the overall approach
Need to be careful of the details
The decision to change will be linked to the outcomes
sought.
The major dilemma is dealing with ineffectiveness.
‘Ineffectiveness in a hedge does not
mean the hedge is not effective’
13. 13
Key Considerations forKey Considerations for
ChangingChanging
What is the underlying exposure.
KISS principle.
Seek the most appropriate match.
14. 14
Options and IAS39Options and IAS39
Options are an effective tool for
managing FX risk even under hedge
accounting.
They will create P&L fluctuations but this
can be managed.
Tools are available to readily manage
the valuation challenges.
15. 15
Options and IAS39Options and IAS39
Intrinsic and Time Value
Nature of the underlying
exposure
Movement in Time Value
reversion to zero
Natural amortisation of premium
16. 16
IAS39 and RiskIAS39 and Risk
ManagementManagement
Risk management principles and tools
have not changed.
Hence overall risk management
practices should not.
However, recognition needs to be given
to the fact that the manner in which their
outcomes are reported has changed.
18. 18
Treasury OutsourcingTreasury Outsourcing
Key considerations
Do not outsource setting the
policy/strategy
Keep the risk management decisions
close to the business
Regularly review the approach, ensure
the service provider is managing the
risk in line with the business
Outsource the process not the risk
As we have discussed, differences under IAS 39, they should not be, as the three principles shown about and discussed by other speakers, should not change, IAS39 is not about changing risk management practices, it is about changing the way that financial statements are presented to better reflect how risks are being managed. This is being achieved, sometimes too effectively for some risk managers liking. The difficulty that most are running into are not related to showing what risk management approaches are being adopted and the broad results being presented, but more how documentation is being written and presented and how calculations are being done. Sometimes the focus on the detail is trouble of diluting the benefit the standard can provide. The current challenges comes from having ineffective accounting results. The word ineffectiveness casts shivers down accounts and risk managers spines, it cast doubt in the minds of senior executives in regard to their risk management activities, as they another financial derivative disaster about to happen. However, ineffectiveness is not necessarily a bad thing. There are three types of ineffectiveness, which are highlighted in this report: Discuss dollar, excluded component and period Discuss the grouping of exposures – how this can be managed.