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Systemic Risk in Asset Management
Presentation to the Perspectives Series,
London, 26 April 2017
Martin Moloney, Head of Markets Policy Division
Central Bank of Ireland - UNRESTRICTED
Questions
• Should we stress test asset
management?
• Does the growth of herding tell us
the market is getting more unstable?
• When is liquidity transformation in
open-ended funds too much?
• Liquidity Stress Tests – not capital;
• Risk mitigation assessment – not
pass/fail;
• Fund Stress Tests – not AM;
• AM.’s Capital – risk to clients/to
Market/to Firm; (EBA)
• AM’s Capital-Step-In Risk (Basle)
• Macro-’Stress Testing’?
• Herding stats as an indicator of
high contagion risk?
• Nuanced macro-models needed -
BoE, FSB & ESRB work on
modelling (and others);
• Can we model fear?
• System-wide contagion modelling
is a long term, iterative project.
• Brexit Vote: Reds: 4.1% / 8 days;
- 3 suspended 9th day, 3 later; 9 not;
- 1 reopened 14th day, 5 in Sep-Dec.
• FCA Consult: ‘Illiquid Assets and
open-ended Investment Funds’.
• Italy: 20% in real estate - closed
• Germany: 2 yr min holding+1 yr
notice (2004-05 Valuation Shock)

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Systemic Risk in Asset Management

  • 1. Systemic Risk in Asset Management Presentation to the Perspectives Series, London, 26 April 2017 Martin Moloney, Head of Markets Policy Division Central Bank of Ireland - UNRESTRICTED
  • 2. Questions • Should we stress test asset management? • Does the growth of herding tell us the market is getting more unstable? • When is liquidity transformation in open-ended funds too much?
  • 3. • Liquidity Stress Tests – not capital; • Risk mitigation assessment – not pass/fail; • Fund Stress Tests – not AM; • AM.’s Capital – risk to clients/to Market/to Firm; (EBA) • AM’s Capital-Step-In Risk (Basle) • Macro-’Stress Testing’?
  • 4. • Herding stats as an indicator of high contagion risk? • Nuanced macro-models needed - BoE, FSB & ESRB work on modelling (and others); • Can we model fear? • System-wide contagion modelling is a long term, iterative project.
  • 5. • Brexit Vote: Reds: 4.1% / 8 days; - 3 suspended 9th day, 3 later; 9 not; - 1 reopened 14th day, 5 in Sep-Dec. • FCA Consult: ‘Illiquid Assets and open-ended Investment Funds’. • Italy: 20% in real estate - closed • Germany: 2 yr min holding+1 yr notice (2004-05 Valuation Shock)