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Market Entry Theory and Practice 
Presentation to 
NSW Natural Gas: Full Retail Contestability 
Charlie Nelson 
foreseecha...
2 
Topics 
• Possible incumbent advantages 
• Telecommunications case study 
• Gas market growth 
• How many competitors c...
3 
Possible Incumbent Advantages 
• Technological leadership 
– Experience curve effects or R&D success 
– Less relevant w...
Case Study: Telecommunications
5 
Stages in Contestability 
Telecommunications Case Study 
Disguised Data 
100 
90 
80 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
Mo...
6 
Issues Suggested by Case Study 
• Duopoly 
– What market share will be gained by the new entrant? 
– What factors influ...
7 
Telecommunications Duopoly 
• Telstra had a large segment of dissatisfied 
customers who welcomed the opportunity to 
s...
8 
Open Competition in 
Telecommunications 
• 15 competitors initially, now down to 5 
– Suggestions that One.Tel were sel...
Gas Market Growth
10 
Gas Market Growth 
• In telecommunications, Telstra’s share price has 
plunged as a result of a downgrade in revenue a...
11 
ABARE’s 1999 Forecast 
Average Annual Growth Rate 2000 to 2015 
• Australia 
– Natural gas 4.0% 
– Electricity 1.5% 
•...
12 
Growth Opportunities and Threats 
• Opportunities 
– ABARE’s residential forecast is based on consumption per person, ...
13 
Lone Households Growing Rapidly 
5000 
4500 
4000 
3500 
3000 
2500 
2000 
1500 
1000 
500 
0 
'000 
1986 1991 1996 
G...
14 
No Growth in Traditional Families 
2000 
1800 
1600 
1400 
1200 
1000 
800 
600 
400 
200 
0 
'000 
1988 1991 1994 199...
15 
Highlights of ABS Household 
Projections 
• Between 1996 and 2021, the population will 
grow by 24% but the number of ...
How Many Competitors can the 
Industry Support?
17 
Some Generalizations 
• Based on Kalyanaram, Robinson, and Urban (1995) “Order of market 
entry: established empirical...
18 
Other Industries in Australia 
• Telecommunications 
– Full deregulation in 1997 led to 15 competitors but consolidati...
19 
Likely Outcome in Energy 
• 2 or perhaps 3 viable full service 
competitors 
• Plus possibly some niche competitors 
•...
Predicting Market Shares 
The Influence of Brand and Other 
Attributes 
An example of conjoint analysis
21 
Breakfast Cereal Case Study 
• This is a simplified example and real world studies 
are not in the public domain 
• 90...
22 
Breakfast Cereal Attributes 
• Brand 
– Kellogg, Uncle Tobys, Sanitarium, No Frills 
• Price 
– -30%, -10%, +10%, +30%...
23 
Experimental Design 
(cards were ranked by respondents) 
Card Brand Sugar Fibre Fat Toys Price 
1 Kellogg High High Hi...
24 
Relative Influence of Attributes
25 
Scenario 1 (all brands equal) 
No Frills Uncle Tobys Kellogg Sanitarium 
Sugar High High High High 
Fibre Low Low Low ...
26 
Scenario 2 (realistic prices) 
No Frills Uncle Tobys Kellogg Sanitarium 
Sugar High High High High 
Fibre Low Low Low ...
27 
Scenario 3 (Sanitarium Low Sugar) 
No Frills Uncle Tobys Kellogg Sanitarium 
Sugar High High High Low 
Fibre Low Low L...
28 
Cereal Case Study Conclusions 
• Despite the artificial simplicity and the non-random 
sample, the market share predic...
More on Price
30 
Pricing Considerations 
• Price is the only marketing variable that directly 
determines revenue and, because it affec...
31 
Price Discrimination 
• Price discrimination occurs whenever there are price differences 
for the same product or serv...
32 
Retail Price Sensitivity 
• Several independent research studies confirm that 
about 
– 20% of consumers are very pric...
33 
Retail Price Sensitivity Variation 
Low 
Medium 
High 
Price Sensitivity Segments 
Source: foreseechange 
100 
80 
60 ...
34 
Determining Market Share Price 
Elasticity 
• Analysis of time series data if available 
• Analogy from other countrie...
35 
Benefit Segmentation 
• Consumers differ on the relative importance 
attached to attributes such as price, quality, an...
36 
Brand Differentiation 
• Brands are still very important to 
consumers, although less important than 25 
years ago 
• ...
37 
Brand Choice in Supermarket 
Most Important Reason for Brand Choice 
Source: ACNielsen 
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 
Quality...
38 
Brand Choice in Supermarket 
Factors Important - Multiples Allowed 
Source: ACNielsen 1999 
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%...
Other Marketing Strategies
40 
Bundling 
• Bundling involves selling products in packages – eg a travel 
package includes transport, accommodation, m...
41 
Loyalty Schemes 
• Sometimes called “disloyalty” schemes because most 
consumers belong to more than one and choose be...
42 
Conclusions 
• The market can probably only support 2 or 3 full service 
competitors 
• Incumbents can have several ad...
43 
For more information ... 
• Market Defence and Entry 
– Defending market share against a new entrant by Roberts, Nelso...
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Market Entry Theory and Practice

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Market Entry Theory and Practice

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Market Entry Theory and Practice

  1. 1. Market Entry Theory and Practice Presentation to NSW Natural Gas: Full Retail Contestability Charlie Nelson foreseechange pty ltd www.foreseechange.com
  2. 2. 2 Topics • Possible incumbent advantages • Telecommunications case study • Gas market growth • How many competitors can the industry support? • Predicting market shares • More on price • Benefit segmentation • Brand differentiation • Other marketing strategies • Conclusions
  3. 3. 3 Possible Incumbent Advantages • Technological leadership – Experience curve effects or R&D success – Less relevant when entrants come from overseas • Pre-emption of scarce assets – Raw materials, distribution – Compass complained that they were not given adequate airport terminal access • Switching costs and buyer choice under uncertainty – Late entrants have to invest more to overcome costs buyers see when switching or to overcome product performance uncertainty amongst risk averse buyers
  4. 4. Case Study: Telecommunications
  5. 5. 5 Stages in Contestability Telecommunications Case Study Disguised Data 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Monopoly Duopoly Open Competition 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Time % Market Share Incumbent First New Entrant Second Third
  6. 6. 6 Issues Suggested by Case Study • Duopoly – What market share will be gained by the new entrant? – What factors influence this? – What period of time will it take to gain that share? • Full contestability – What shares will new entrants achieve? – Will the original incumbent or the second entrant be hurt most? – How many competitors can the market support?
  7. 7. 7 Telecommunications Duopoly • Telstra had a large segment of dissatisfied customers who welcomed the opportunity to switch • Optus had a cost advantage and could charge up to 10% less – Telstra attempted to blunt this with pricing plans – Which is cheaper? It depends! • Inertia was high – companies and households wanted time to evaluate the new entrant • Optus brought on pre-selection too early (asked customers to make a commitment) and inertia counted against them
  8. 8. 8 Open Competition in Telecommunications • 15 competitors initially, now down to 5 – Suggestions that One.Tel were selling services at a loss plus they strayed from their core area of expertise – Further consolidation likely • Optus up for sale • Telstra’s share price plunged on news that revenue and profit forecasts were too optimistic – Hit by competitive pressures plus a market slowdown influenced by the economy
  9. 9. Gas Market Growth
  10. 10. 10 Gas Market Growth • In telecommunications, Telstra’s share price has plunged as a result of a downgrade in revenue and profit forecast – Attributed to the economic slowdown and competitive pressure – One.Tel has collapsed • A quickly growing market will tend to offset loss of share to competitors and may lessen the prospects of a price war • So, what are the growth prospects for the gas market?
  11. 11. 11 ABARE’s 1999 Forecast Average Annual Growth Rate 2000 to 2015 • Australia – Natural gas 4.0% – Electricity 1.5% • NSW – Natural gas 3.3% – Electricity 1.3% • These are averages and economic growth volatility suggests that growth will be lower in some years, possibly close to zero
  12. 12. 12 Growth Opportunities and Threats • Opportunities – ABARE’s residential forecast is based on consumption per person, but households are growing much faster than people – More switching from electricity to gas than ABARE allowed for, due to lower carbon emissions (especially in Victoria) – Switching from electricity to gas to secure better quality, more reliable electricity (microturbines, fuel cells) • Threats – Switching from gas to solar hot water – Global warming (less space heating)
  13. 13. 13 Lone Households Growing Rapidly 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 '000 1986 1991 1996 Group Lone Family
  14. 14. 14 No Growth in Traditional Families 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 '000 1988 1991 1994 1997 couple only couple + kids single parent
  15. 15. 15 Highlights of ABS Household Projections • Between 1996 and 2021, the population will grow by 24% but the number of households will grow by between 38% and 46% • Average household size to decline from 2.6 to between 2.2 and 2.3 • Couple families without children to exceed couple families with children by 2020
  16. 16. How Many Competitors can the Industry Support?
  17. 17. 17 Some Generalizations • Based on Kalyanaram, Robinson, and Urban (1995) “Order of market entry: established empirical generalizations, emerging empirical generalization, and future research” Marketing Science Vol 14, No. 3, Part 2. • For mature consumer and industrial goods, there is a negative relationship between market entry and market share • In mature consumer and industrial goods markets, early entrant market share advantages slowly decline over time
  18. 18. 18 Other Industries in Australia • Telecommunications – Full deregulation in 1997 led to 15 competitors but consolidation and exits will probably leave 3 – The 5th, One.Tel, just went under – The 2nd, Optus, is up for sale • Passenger Airlines – Several collapses (Compass twice, Impulse) – Two competitors on most routes, Virgin makes three on larger routes • Banking – The “four pillars” policy is artificially keeping four big competitors – Without that policy, there would be two big competitors plus niche competitors
  19. 19. 19 Likely Outcome in Energy • 2 or perhaps 3 viable full service competitors • Plus possibly some niche competitors • It is interesting to note the potential trend back to government ownership in Telecommunications and airlines – but it is the Singapore government buying, not the Australian government
  20. 20. Predicting Market Shares The Influence of Brand and Other Attributes An example of conjoint analysis
  21. 21. 21 Breakfast Cereal Case Study • This is a simplified example and real world studies are not in the public domain • 90 marketing students at Sydney University participated in a conjoint analysis study as an educational exercise that I conducted • In discussions, we identified the important attributes • Then we developed an experimental plan to vary the attributes by brand • And developed a market simulation tool
  22. 22. 22 Breakfast Cereal Attributes • Brand – Kellogg, Uncle Tobys, Sanitarium, No Frills • Price – -30%, -10%, +10%, +30% • Sugar content – Low, high • Fibre content – Low, high • Fat content – Low, high • Toys in pack (suggested by the boys) – Yes, no
  23. 23. 23 Experimental Design (cards were ranked by respondents) Card Brand Sugar Fibre Fat Toys Price 1 Kellogg High High High No -10% 2 Uncle Tobys Low Low High No +10% 3 Sanitariu m low High High No -30% 4 No Frills high low high no +30% 5 Kellogg low high high yes +10% 15 Sanitariu m high low low yes +10% 16 No Frills low high low yes -10%
  24. 24. 24 Relative Influence of Attributes
  25. 25. 25 Scenario 1 (all brands equal) No Frills Uncle Tobys Kellogg Sanitarium Sugar High High High High Fibre Low Low Low Low Fat High High High High Toys No No No No Price 0% 0% 0% 0% Preference 4% 25% 62% 9% Share
  26. 26. 26 Scenario 2 (realistic prices) No Frills Uncle Tobys Kellogg Sanitarium Sugar High High High High Fibre Low Low Low Low Fat High High High High Toys No No No No Price -15% -5% +5% -5% Preference 8% 35% 49% 8% Share
  27. 27. 27 Scenario 3 (Sanitarium Low Sugar) No Frills Uncle Tobys Kellogg Sanitarium Sugar High High High Low Fibre Low Low Low Low Fat High High High High Toys No No No No Price -15% -5% +5% -5% Preference 3% 24% 44% 29% Share
  28. 28. 28 Cereal Case Study Conclusions • Despite the artificial simplicity and the non-random sample, the market share predictions are remarkably accurate • The relative importance of brand, price, and other attributes have been quantified • Conjoint analysis and choice modelling (a similar technique that focuses more on discrete choice rather than preference) have been applied with success in new product or new market entrant studies in industries such as telecommunications, airlines and finance
  29. 29. More on Price
  30. 30. 30 Pricing Considerations • Price is the only marketing variable that directly determines revenue and, because it affects quantity sold, affects cost as well • In a competitive environment, it is important to keep prices at levels that ensure industry profitability • Prices influence market growth as well as market shares • Price is seen by some consumers as a quality signal
  31. 31. 31 Price Discrimination • Price discrimination occurs whenever there are price differences for the same product or service sold by a single seller that are not justified by cost differences • If different consumers have different price sensitivity then price discrimination can boost profits – Difficult to identify price sensitivity of individual customers • Price discrimination exists despite identification and legal problems – Student and pensioner discounts – Airfare discounts – differentiation on the “restrictions” attribute • Opportunities in energy – “green energy” – Peak/off peak – Quality differentiation
  32. 32. 32 Retail Price Sensitivity • Several independent research studies confirm that about – 20% of consumers are very price sensitive – 30% trade off price and other attributes such as convenience and quality – 50% are more concerned about convenience, quality, service, or other factors and price is of relatively low importance • This may vary by industry – eg higher in air travel because there is a high market size elasticity as well as market share elasticity • It certainly varies over time and by demographics
  33. 33. 33 Retail Price Sensitivity Variation Low Medium High Price Sensitivity Segments Source: foreseechange 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 Sep 97 Mar 98 Sep 98 Dec 97 Jun 98 Dec 98 Quarter Mar 99 Jun 99 Sep 99 Dec 99 Mar 00 Jun 00 Sep 00 Dec 00 Price Sensitivity
  34. 34. 34 Determining Market Share Price Elasticity • Analysis of time series data if available • Analogy from other countries or industries • Simulated choice modelling – Where it has been possible to compare with time series analysis, elasticity estimates are quite similar
  35. 35. 35 Benefit Segmentation • Consumers differ on the relative importance attached to attributes such as price, quality, and customer service • With knowledge of benefit segmentation, it is possible to differentiate the product so as to maximise profit (not necessarily market share) • Benefit segments can be identified in market research through conjoint analysis or cluster analysis of an attitudinal battery
  36. 36. 36 Brand Differentiation • Brands are still very important to consumers, although less important than 25 years ago • Brand differentiation is important, especially in defending market share • Australian ownership and environmental credentials are two potentially powerful differentiators
  37. 37. 37 Brand Choice in Supermarket Most Important Reason for Brand Choice Source: ACNielsen 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Quality Brand usually buy Price Where made Environmentally Friendly Other % 97 99
  38. 38. 38 Brand Choice in Supermarket Factors Important - Multiples Allowed Source: ACNielsen 1999 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Brand usually buy Recently advertised Packaging Where brand made Quality Price Environmentally friendly Other reason % Dick Smiths segment Green segment
  39. 39. Other Marketing Strategies
  40. 40. 40 Bundling • Bundling involves selling products in packages – eg a travel package includes transport, accommodation, meals, entertainment, etc • If properly developed and implemented, a price bundling strategy can enhance customer’s perceptions of value, provide competitive advantage, lead to cost economies, and effect a profitable pricing strategy – In insurance, some people want to buy a portfolio of insurance products from one company, others want the best deal on each type of insurance • If improperly done, it can lead to lost sales, reduced profits, and lower customer satisfaction – Bundling home loans at a discount with energy offends the majority of households who do not have a home loan and don’t qualify for the discount • The key is to understand customer segmentation
  41. 41. 41 Loyalty Schemes • Sometimes called “disloyalty” schemes because most consumers belong to more than one and choose between them for each transaction • A good example of the power of loyalty schemes is Coles and Woolworths – Coles has fly buys and share holder discounts, Woolworths have neither – Yet Woolworths market share and share price is higher than Coles • Moral: get customer service right – If you don’t, a loyalty scheme won’t help – If you do, you don’t need a loyalty scheme • Few, if any, loyalty schemes are being effectively used for 1 to 1 marketing
  42. 42. 42 Conclusions • The market can probably only support 2 or 3 full service competitors • Incumbents can have several advantages over later entrants • Pay attention to growing the market as well as market share • Price sensitive customers are easily won and easily lost • Need to be able to withstand a price war at some stage – possibly during a market slowdown • Understanding market dynamics and segmentation is vital to development of a profitable portfolio and, ultimately, survival
  43. 43. 43 For more information ... • Market Defence and Entry – Defending market share against a new entrant by Roberts, Nelson, and Morrison, in New Directions in Corporate Strategy by Twite and O’Keefe, AGSM • Market Modelling – Marketing Models by Lilien, Kotler, amd Moorthy, Prentice-Hall • Pricing – Pricing: Making Profitable Decisions by Kent B. Monroe, McGraw-Hill • Conjoint Analysis and Choice Modelling – www.futuretoolkit.com/conjoint.htm

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