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Outlook for the Major Global Currencies

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Outlook for the Major Global Currencies
- Joseph Capurso, Currency Strategist, Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
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Outlook for the Major Global Currencies

  1. 1. 11 ANZIIF 2010 Liability Conference Over the horizon What’s in store for currency markets? Prepared by: Joseph Capurso, Currency strategist Date: March 2010
  2. 2. 22 Important Information This advice has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs, and before acting on the advice, you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (“CBA”) as a provider of investment, borrowing and other financial services undertakes financial transactions with many corporate entities in Australia. This may include any corporate issuer referred to in this report. For US and US investors: If you would like to speak to someone regarding the subject securities or issuer(s) described in this report, please contact Commonwealth Australia Securities LLC (“CAS”), a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) and a member of The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, ( “FINRA”) at 1 (212) 848-9307. This report was prepared, approved, published, and distributed in the USA by Commonwealth Australia Securities LLC (“CAS”). CBA is not registered as a broker-dealer under the Exchange Act and is not a member of the FINRA or any U.S. self-regulatory organization. Please see further disclaimers at the back of this document. Please also view our website at www.research.commbank.com.au for a more detailed disclaimer.
  3. 3. 33 Road Map  Our view…………………..………………………………….3  AUD…………………………………………………………...9  Hedging………………………………………………………15  The USD……………………………………………………..19  Cross rates…………………………………………………..29
  4. 4. 4 Our economic view  Global economy is recovering – China and Australia leading the economic recovery – US looking strongest among the big advanced economies – Eurozone at risk of ‘double dip’ – UK has the potential to give a positive surprise this year  Economic policy is shifting away from “emergency” levels – RBA to be first to raise rates to ‘normal’ – Major central banks to tighten in HII 2010, but rates to remain low – Government debt to be major focus for markets
  5. 5. 5 Our FX view  USD recovery has just started – US economic recovery supports a firmer USD – Better global economy encourages offshore US investment – Federal Reserve commitment to keep interest rates low preventing stronger USD, for now  Upside to AUD limited – Investor risk appetite ‘waxing and waning’ – Interest differentials are wide but not much more upside – Global recovery supporting commodity prices but Europe is a concern – Australian assets (AAA bonds & commodities) are attractive
  6. 6. 6 Our FX view  NZD has some further upside – Current soft patch is unlikely to last – NZ’s small open economy is responding to global improvements – AUD/NZD to edge lower as global economy improves and Reserve Bank of New Zealand tightens  EUR lower on weak economic data and concerns about government debt – Risk of “double dip” recession  GBP has potential for upside surprise – Large fall in UK TWI is a competitive depreciation; benefits to flow – UK economy showing signs of a faster improvement than Europe – BoE to change current bearish view
  7. 7. 7 Our FX view  JPY to weaken as global economy improves – Current strength in JPY reflects risk aversion and low real yields – USD/JPY to rise when US yields rise – Better global economy & market stability lead to Japanese offshore investment – Japan likely to be the last of G-7 economies to recover to pre-crisis levels  Asian EM FX strength to persist until Fed tightens – Asian region absent large bank problems – Consensus forecasts for Asian growth on the way up – Asia has support of cyclical improvement in China’s economy – Current account surpluses limit depreciation
  8. 8. 8 Our FX view Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 AUD 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.82 EUR 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.32 NZD 0.70 0.72 0.71 0.68 GBP 1.65 1.63 1.64 1.64 JPY 95 96 98 100 CAD 1.06 1.05 1.08 1.12 CHF 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.10 CNY 6.81 6.78 6.75 6.67 End period
  9. 9. 9 Our FX view Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 AUD-USD 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.82 AUD-EUR 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.62 AUD-NZD 1.26 1.21 1.20 1.21 AUD-GBP 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.50 AUD-JPY 84 84 83 82 AUD-CAD 0.93 0.91 0.92 0.92 AUD-CHF 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.88 AUD-CNY 5.99 5.90 5.74 5.51 End period
  10. 10. 10 AUD How did we go? 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 WHAT HAPPENED ONE YEAR AGO? (end of quarter) Consensus CBA Outcome USD *Spot at time of forecast
  11. 11. 11 CBA and the Consensus  We are less optimistic than Consensus – first time in several years.  We revised down our forecasts – first time since October 2008. 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 CBA V CONSENSUS: AUD/USD CBA Consensus 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 CBA AUD FORECASTS (end quarter) Market price May 2009 March 2009 Feb. 2010 Oct. 2009 USD USD AUD
  12. 12. 1212 AUD 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1/3/83 27/2/89 26/2/95 24/2/01 23/2/07 AUD SINCE THE FLOAT Banana Republic (1986) Sub-prime (2007-08) USDUSD Fed hikes rates (1984) Asia crisis (1997) Tech bust (2001) A foreign affair
  13. 13. 13 What moves the AUD?  Trends in the USD against major currencies – Fed has outlined its ‘exit strategy’, now for implementation – Concerns about government debt in eurozone helping USD  Interest rate spreads – RBA among first to raise rates – more to come, but gradual – US Federal Reserve to reduce liquidity then raise rates  Commodity prices – global economy improving, led by China AUD
  14. 14. 14 Reality check  The currency is at extreme levels against a range of currencies.  We expect this strength to wane over the next year. 0 10 20 30 40 AUD/USD AUD/NZD AUD/GBP AUD/EUR ABOVE AVERAGE % Currently 24% above average Forecast to be 11% above average AUD AUD/USD AUD/NZD AUD/GBP AUD/EUR Current 0.92 1.30 0.61 0.67 Average 0.74 1.22 0.46 0.60 Mar-11 0.82 1.21 0.50 0.62
  15. 15. 15  USD strengthens as US economy improves. – looming mortgage resets.  Downward revisions to 2010 global growth. – Europe is the weak spot.  US & European equity markets fall by >20%.  China’s economic growth stalls (commercial property).  Australia’s recovery unexpectedly falters. The Big Five Weighted risk of occurrence 40% 25% 20% x 10% x 5% AUD
  16. 16. 16 Volatility  AUD is a volatile currency. – Very sensitive to global financial market moves.  13 US cent trading range in an “average” year – 31 US cents in 2009.  Implied volatility in options is coming down. Unlikely to return to lows seen pre-GFC now that risk is more appropriately priced. Our FX View 5 10 15 20 25 5 10 15 20 25 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 IMPLIED VOLATILITY (12 months) %pa AUD/USD AUD/EUR %pa
  17. 17. 17  Funds have increased hedging by more than corporates. Hedging benchmarks Hedging 0 15 30 45 60 Exports Imports CHANGES TO CORP. BENCHMARK* (% of contributors) Increased Decreased * in last two years 0 15 30 45 60 Equity assets Debt owned CHANGES TO FUNDS BENCHMARK* (% of contributors) Increased Decreased * in last two years
  18. 18. 18  Funds hedge more FX risk than corporates. Hedging policy Hedging 0 20 40 60 80 Equity assets Debt owned Debt owed HEDGING POLICY OF FUNDS (% of exposure) Fully hedged Partially hedged 0 20 40 60 80 Exports Imports HEDGING POLICY OF CORPORATES (% of exposure) Fully hedged Partially hedged
  19. 19. 19  Funds are more pro-active (FX forecasts more influential) than corporates. Influences on hedging benchmarks Hedging 0 25 50 75 100 Equity assets Debt owned INFLUENCES ON BENCHMARK: FUNDS (% of contributors) Recent FX trends FX forecasts Other 0 25 50 75 100 Exports Imports INFLUNCES ON BENCHMARK: CORP. (% of contributors) Recent FX trends FX forecasts Other
  20. 20. 20 The USD US winning the beauty contest  USD is rising because its economy is recovering ahead of other large advanced economies. 90 95 100 105 90 95 100 105 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 LEVEL OF GDP (index Sept. 2008 =100) Pts Pts Japan US Europe UK Lehman collapse
  21. 21. 21 Inventory rebuild  Economic recoveries often start with inventory rebuild.  The inventory cycle has only just begun. The USD 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 USA: INVENTORY SALES RATIO Times
  22. 22. 22 Housing recovery  The overhang of homes is being wound down.  US housing construction is recovering — financed by banks! -12 -6 0 6 12 -12 -6 0 6 12 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 US HOUSING (% change)% New home construction (q%ch) Mortgages (y%ch) % The USD
  23. 23. 23 Business expansion  US businesses slashed capital spending (and jobs) heavily.  Rising productivity to encourage spending on new equipment.  Commercial construction likely to continue falling. – But is small compared to equipment. 0 300 600 900 1200 0 300 600 900 1,200 Mar-00 Mar-03 Mar-06 Mar-09 US INVESTMENT USD bn USD bn Equipment Housing Commercial The USD
  24. 24. 24 Ready, set…  Federal Reserves is keeping 2-year interest rates low: – “exceptionally low rate for the federal funds rate for an extended period”.  USD can rise further once Federal Reserve fully implements its “exit strategy”. The USD 65 75 85 95 -1.5 0.0 1.5 3.0 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 USD & WEIGHTED YIELDS USD TWI (rhs) US 2 year swap spread (weighted to trading partners, lhs) Pts%
  25. 25. 25 Heading for the exit  The Federal Reserve has outlined its “exit strategy” – Close and then wind down emergency liquidity facilities. – Increase the discount rate relative to funds rate. – Roll off or sell US government and mortgage-backed bonds. – Temporary change in focus: interest rate paid on reserves and reduce target for reserves. – “Normalise” funds rate. Source: Speech by Chairman Bernanke, February 11 2010 The USD
  26. 26. 26 Diversification risk: part I  USD remains the number one destination for FX reserves.  The explosion of AAA-rated US government debt gives reserve managers plenty to invest in. 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 Dec-99 Dec-02 Dec-05 Dec-08 FX RESERVES (% of total allocated reserves)% % GBPJPY Other USD EUR The USD
  27. 27. 27 Diversification risk: part II  US public debt market is still the world’s largest. – 56% of AAA-rated government debt is US.  Japanese public debt is not AAA-rated. Only half of eurozone public debt is AAA- rated. The USD
  28. 28. 28 Regime change needed  Exchange rate policy of the big FX reserve holders would need to change to reduce use of USD as destination for FX reserves. Large FX reserves* FX reserves Free float Brazil 241 Japan 1,001 Eurozone 197 Managed float / exchange controls Taiwan 351 China 2,399 Algeria 144 Russia 432 Thailand 138 Real effective exchange rate target Singapore 190 India 261 US dollar peg Hong Kong 257 * minimum USD 100 billion The USD
  29. 29. 29 Fiscal precedents  There are many precedents of large fiscal adjustments. The USD 0 5 10 15 20 Ireland(1989) Sweden(2000) Finland(2000) Sweden(1987) Den.(1986) Greece(1995) Israel(1983) Belgium(1998) Canada(1999) Cyprus(2007) UK(2000) Japan(1990) Italy(1993) Port.(1985) Lux.(1985) Lux.(2001) Iceland(2006) Neth.(2000) Den.(2005) Australia(1988) HK(2005) NZ(1995) Austria(2001) Iceland(2000) US(2000) Germany(2000) Germany(1989) Switz.(200) Cyprus(1994) Spain(2006) LARGE FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS (cumulative change in cyclically-adjusted budgetbalance, % of GDP) %
  30. 30. 30 Spreads matter: part I  Interest rate differentials are an important influence on AUD/NZD. AUD/NZD 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 -2 -1 0 1 2 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 AUD/NZD & INTEREST RATES Australia-New Zealand 3 year swap differentials (lhs) AUD/NZD (rhs) NZDpp
  31. 31. 31 Spreads matter: part II  Starting point for rate differentials favour Australia.  New Zealand usually has a greater inflation problem than Australia, so rates have much further to rise. AUD/NZD 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 CBA OFFICIAL RATE FORECASTS Reserve Bank of Australia Reserve Bank of New Zealand %% CBA (f)
  32. 32. 32 Not just rate spreads  NZD gains more than AUD from global economic recovery. – New Zealand exports are 30% of GDP while Australian exports are 20% of GDP. 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.01.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 WORLD GDP & AUD/NZD AUD/NZD (inverted) (lhs) Expected world GDP growth over next two years (rhs) %paNZD AUD/NZD
  33. 33. 33 Re-connect  Expectations for the world economy are important for AUD/EUR. AUD/EUR 0 2 4 6 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 WORLD ECONOMY & AUD/EUR AUD/EUR (end of month, lhs) Expected world GDP growth over next two years (rhs) %paEUR
  34. 34. 34 Little upside left  AUD/GBP has jumped ahead of interest rate differentials.  AUD/GBP is close to the strongest point. We think yields on gilts have fallen too far. AUD/GBP 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 -2 0 2 4 6 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 AUD/GBP EXCHANGE RATE AUS-UK 3-month bill futures spread, % (lhs) AUD/GBP (rhs) ppt GBP
  35. 35. 35 From risk aversion to risk loving?  AUD/JPY tends to rise sharply after a period of financial market volatility and risk aversion ends. AUD/JPY 50 70 90 110 130 50 70 90 110 130 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Volatility episodes AUD/JPY AND VOLATILITY JPY JPY 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 AU US EZ UK NZ JPY CARRY TRADE INDICATOR (3 month volatility-adjusted return)
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  38. 38. 3838 ANZIIF 2010 Liability Conference Risk management Prepared by: Richard Knight Date: March 2010
  39. 39. 3939 Important Information This advice has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs, and before acting on the advice, you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (“CBA”) as a provider of investment, borrowing and other financial services undertakes financial transactions with many corporate entities in Australia. This may include any corporate issuer referred to in this report. For US and US investors: If you would like to speak to someone regarding the subject securities or issuer(s) described in this report, please contact Commonwealth Australia Securities LLC (“CAS”), a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) and a member of The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, ( “FINRA”) at 1 (212) 848-9307. This report was prepared, approved, published, and distributed in the USA by Commonwealth Australia Securities LLC (“CAS”). CBA is not registered as a broker-dealer under the Exchange Act and is not a member of the FINRA or any U.S. self-regulatory organization. Please see further disclaimers at the back of this document. Please also view our website at www.research.commbank.com.au for a more detailed disclaimer.
  40. 40. 40 Facts about the AUD FX volatility Average annual AUD/USD trading range is 12 US cents or 18%. In 2008, AUD/USD traded in a 38.5 cent range (0.6000 to 0.9850). In 2009, AUD/USD traded in a 31.5 cent range (0.6250 to 0.9400). In 2010, AUDUSD has traded in a 7.75 cent range (0.8575 to 0.9350). Average AUD 1 month volatility is 16%. Last year volatility was trading above 40%! What FX hedging solution is best??
  41. 41. 41 Daily moves AUD 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1-Jan-08 1-Jul-08 1-Jan-09 1-Jul-09 1-Jan-10 AUD/USD DAILY TRADING

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