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Juan Carlos Castilla-Rho
PhD candidate in Hydrogeology and Water Resources (UNSW), funded by the Chilean government and UNSW
Supervisors: Gregoire Mariethoz (UNSW), Rodrigo Rojas (CSIRO), Martin Andersen (UNSW) & Bryce Kelly (UNSW)
EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT OF GROUNDWATER REQUIRES A HOLISTIC
VIEW OF COMPLEX HYDROLOGIC, CLIMATIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC
PROCESSES
AN INTEGRATED, SPATIALLY EXPLICIT REPRESENTATION OF
GROUNDWATER AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROCESSES
MODELLING COMPLEX HUMAN-AQUIFER INTERACTIONS
USING SIMULATION GAMES: An Agent-Based Approach
AGENT-BASED MODELS ALLOW US TO BUILD INTERACTIVE
GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT “LABORATORIES”
Synthetic ABMs of
generic groundwater
management topics
•  Socio-economic dynamics are often the most difficult to
formalize. Today, the oversimplification of social dynamics is common
practice: humans are considered impartial observers or external
drivers influencing groundwater but not being influenced by it.
•  However, the interactions between society and groundwater are
two-way: human decisions affect aquifer conditions, which at the
same time affect future human decisions.
•  If we intend to better understand and manage human and natural
impacted aquifers, there is a need to find methodologies that
integrate hydrogeological and socio-economic dynamics
Many actors
Multiple points of view
Rapidly changing realities
Evolving, continuous, iterative processes
Uncertainty
Environment <-> Society interactions
Actor <-> Actor interactions
GROUNDWATER
PROBLEMS ARE
DRIVEN BY
AGENT-BASED MODELLING:
A TOOL TO “GROW” ARTIFICIAL
SOCIETIES FROM THE BOTTOM UP
RESEARCH PORTFOLIO
Case study,
Coupled
hydrogeological and
social model
•  Resilience metrics for GW systems
•  Conjunctive management of surface water
and groundwater
•  Triggering cooperation from the ‘bottom-up’
•  Water banking
Agents
•  Encourages collective decision-making and
improved assessments in the water sector.
•  A “participatory” ABM design is a unique and
novel way to lead multi-party negotiation tables
dominated by uncertainty, contributing to
relieve tensions and building trust between
actors.
•  Provides a basis for sustainable expansion of
the resources sector and water resources in
developing countries.
•  Allows novel ‘bottom-up’ solutions to
groundwater management, based on
stakeholder awareness and collective action
A fully-featured MODFLOW model
defines the resource shared by agents 	
  
Groundwater model
•  Agent-Based modelling (ABM) explicitly accounts for
interactions between actors as well as feedbacks between
human and groundwater systems, by focusing on the
elementary entities of society rather than on their collective
behaviour. These elementary entities are called agents.
•  Agents are implemented into individual pieces of computer
code and are then situated in an environment, which they
interact with. Agents are unique, self-directed, and interact
with each other through behavioural rules and a set of
social abilities.
•  The distinguishing feature of ABMs is the concept of
emergence: system patterns and complex order arising from
the micro-level interaction of heterogeneous agents, who
influence each other and adapt in order to be better suited to
their environment
•  Copiapó Basin, northern Chile (Atacama
Desert, ca. 18.000km2)
•  Complex GW-SW interactions
•  Agriculture vs. Mining vs. Public Supply
•  Inefficient water trading
•  Multiple stakeholders with different
viewpoints
Farmers
Households
Mining companies
Government institutions
Environmentalists
The ABM couples a spatially explicit
model of socio-economic processes
with the groundwater model 	
  
Agent-based model
Agents can be reactive or cognitive, their behaviour
derived from surveys, heuristic rules, microeconomic
theory, evolutionary programming or heuristic models
Agent behaviourScientists, managers and stakeholders use the ABM
as a scoping/exploratory tool. Actors, build a shared
representation of the system, and envision scenarios
arising from their decisions.
Participatory simulation
Socio-economic
processes
Groundwater
processes
Influence
Aquifer
Groundwater
User Agent
Agents and their organizational relationships
View of an
Agent
Intersecting areas of influence in the groundwater system
Agents are organized and interact at multiple levels,
e.g. water user associations, management districts,
basin-scale regulation, etc.
Interactions
Agents	
  
Agent
type A
Agent groups
social netwo
Wells	
  
Social networks	
  
Agents organised and
interacting at multiple levels

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GW-ABM Poster

  • 1. Juan Carlos Castilla-Rho PhD candidate in Hydrogeology and Water Resources (UNSW), funded by the Chilean government and UNSW Supervisors: Gregoire Mariethoz (UNSW), Rodrigo Rojas (CSIRO), Martin Andersen (UNSW) & Bryce Kelly (UNSW) EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT OF GROUNDWATER REQUIRES A HOLISTIC VIEW OF COMPLEX HYDROLOGIC, CLIMATIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES AN INTEGRATED, SPATIALLY EXPLICIT REPRESENTATION OF GROUNDWATER AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROCESSES MODELLING COMPLEX HUMAN-AQUIFER INTERACTIONS USING SIMULATION GAMES: An Agent-Based Approach AGENT-BASED MODELS ALLOW US TO BUILD INTERACTIVE GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT “LABORATORIES” Synthetic ABMs of generic groundwater management topics •  Socio-economic dynamics are often the most difficult to formalize. Today, the oversimplification of social dynamics is common practice: humans are considered impartial observers or external drivers influencing groundwater but not being influenced by it. •  However, the interactions between society and groundwater are two-way: human decisions affect aquifer conditions, which at the same time affect future human decisions. •  If we intend to better understand and manage human and natural impacted aquifers, there is a need to find methodologies that integrate hydrogeological and socio-economic dynamics Many actors Multiple points of view Rapidly changing realities Evolving, continuous, iterative processes Uncertainty Environment <-> Society interactions Actor <-> Actor interactions GROUNDWATER PROBLEMS ARE DRIVEN BY AGENT-BASED MODELLING: A TOOL TO “GROW” ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES FROM THE BOTTOM UP RESEARCH PORTFOLIO Case study, Coupled hydrogeological and social model •  Resilience metrics for GW systems •  Conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater •  Triggering cooperation from the ‘bottom-up’ •  Water banking Agents •  Encourages collective decision-making and improved assessments in the water sector. •  A “participatory” ABM design is a unique and novel way to lead multi-party negotiation tables dominated by uncertainty, contributing to relieve tensions and building trust between actors. •  Provides a basis for sustainable expansion of the resources sector and water resources in developing countries. •  Allows novel ‘bottom-up’ solutions to groundwater management, based on stakeholder awareness and collective action A fully-featured MODFLOW model defines the resource shared by agents   Groundwater model •  Agent-Based modelling (ABM) explicitly accounts for interactions between actors as well as feedbacks between human and groundwater systems, by focusing on the elementary entities of society rather than on their collective behaviour. These elementary entities are called agents. •  Agents are implemented into individual pieces of computer code and are then situated in an environment, which they interact with. Agents are unique, self-directed, and interact with each other through behavioural rules and a set of social abilities. •  The distinguishing feature of ABMs is the concept of emergence: system patterns and complex order arising from the micro-level interaction of heterogeneous agents, who influence each other and adapt in order to be better suited to their environment •  Copiapó Basin, northern Chile (Atacama Desert, ca. 18.000km2) •  Complex GW-SW interactions •  Agriculture vs. Mining vs. Public Supply •  Inefficient water trading •  Multiple stakeholders with different viewpoints Farmers Households Mining companies Government institutions Environmentalists The ABM couples a spatially explicit model of socio-economic processes with the groundwater model   Agent-based model Agents can be reactive or cognitive, their behaviour derived from surveys, heuristic rules, microeconomic theory, evolutionary programming or heuristic models Agent behaviourScientists, managers and stakeholders use the ABM as a scoping/exploratory tool. Actors, build a shared representation of the system, and envision scenarios arising from their decisions. Participatory simulation Socio-economic processes Groundwater processes Influence Aquifer Groundwater User Agent Agents and their organizational relationships View of an Agent Intersecting areas of influence in the groundwater system Agents are organized and interact at multiple levels, e.g. water user associations, management districts, basin-scale regulation, etc. Interactions Agents   Agent type A Agent groups social netwo Wells   Social networks   Agents organised and interacting at multiple levels