Gordon Price
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The document discusses various types and levels of change including incremental, seismic, utopian and apocalyptic change. It examines how assumptions around suburbia like cheap energy and land are at risk. Case studies show how cities have transitioned from motordom to more sustainable transit-oriented forms. While plans may be useless, planning for disruptive change is indispensable. Decision-makers should plan for incremental strategies but anticipate seismic shifts, and work towards small changes that can make a positive difference over time.
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Gordon Price
- 1. All Red Route 1792 George Vancouver HMS Discovery
- 3. Carbon Footprint 3.2 tonnes of C0 2
- 4. $ 162.90 in offsets Carbon Offsets 3.2 tonnes of C0 = 2
- 5. $162.90 § Project § Promotional event § Meeting § Research paper § Honoraria § Grant For someone here with an idea:
- 6. Some change that will make a difference. A Small Incremental Difference.
- 9. Utopian
- 15. Climate Change
- 18. “These people (in the financial markets) believed that the collapse of the subprime mortgage market was unlikely precisely because it would be such a catastrophe.” precisely because it would be such a catastrophe.”
- 19. “Nothing so terrible could ever actually happen.”
- 21. What is the likelihood of something seismic not occurring in the next eight years?
- 22. How can our plans incorporate change so disruptive … That the assumptions on which the plan is based are no longer true?
- 23. What is a decision-maker to do?
- 24. Dwight Eisenhower “In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless but planning is indispensable.”
- 25. The Battle Ground • The American Dream • The Canadian Dream … most of what we have built for the last half century
- 26. • The Australian Dream
- 27. • The New Zealand Dream
- 29. Assumptions for Suburbia • Cheap, secure energy • Abundant, serviced land • Continuous flow of safe water • Low-cost money • Technologies and organizations that make it all work Cheap, secure energy
- 30. Crude Oil in 2008 Dollars 1880 1973
- 31. Motordom
- 32. Auto-Dependent Urban Planning Surrey, B.C. 2007 Motordom
- 35. Detroit 1917 / Pre-Motordom • World @ 5 to 50 kph
- 36. • World @ 50 to 100 kph West Kelowna, B.C. 2010 / Motordom
- 37. Kelowna, B.C. • Form follows parking
- 38. ndance of serviced land
- 39. Vaughan, Ontario 20 k m Toronto The 905 Belt The Streetcar City
- 40. Vaughan, Ontario Vaughan, Ontario 2008
- 48. Gold Coast Claremont, PerthBlues Point, Sydney
- 50. As the rate of change slows down … People’s perception of change increases.
- 51. … and Incremental change is perceived as Seismic.
- 53. Vancouver Reforms in the 1970s • Local Area Planning • Urban Design Review • Heritage Preservation • Amenity requirements • Discretionary Zoning • Development Permit Board From Seismic to Incremental
- 55. West End Central Business District Concord Pacific Place (Yaletown) Coal Harbour Downtown South Triangle West The Livable City: Density Done Well
- 56. 1985199520062012
- 57. Seismic change is appropriate for brownfields.
- 62. Olympic Village site (Southeast False Creek)
- 63. Olympic Village site (Southeast False Creek)
- 64. Vinegar Lane
- 67. • Invisible • Hidden • Gentle Incremental Densities
- 73. Over 500 already approved across the city
- 77. Bob Rennie noted that proximity to transit is paramount for today’s homebuyer. “In the ’70s and ’80s it was location, location, location. “In the ’90s through mid-’2000s, it was timing, timing, timing. Vancouver ‘Condo King’
- 78. “And from here forward, it’s transit, transit, transit.”
- 79. “What used to be a niche market is now the market.” Chris Leinberger Urban Land Institute’s Transit- Oriented Development (TOD) Council
- 83. Station Square Metrotown on Expo SkyTrain line
- 85. Brentwood Shopping Centre 1963
- 86. Brentwood Shopping Centre 2013
- 88. Canada Line on No. 3 Road
- 89. MC2 / Marine and Cambie on Canada Line
- 92. The best transportation plan is a great land-use plan.
- 93. City of Vancouver 1990s Plans
- 94. Key Elements of 1997 Plan • No increase in road capacity
- 95. Key Elements of 1997 Plan • No increase in road capacity • Accommodate growth through walking, cycling, and transit
- 96. • No increase in road capacity • Accommodate growth through walking, cycling, and transit • Support regional TDM measures • Maintain good truck access • Support neighbourhood traffic calming • Provide services & jobs close to home Key Elements of 1997 Plan
- 97. Five Practical Choices •Car •Taxi, Car-sharing, Driverless •Transit of all kinds •Bicycle / scooter •Foot Five Practical Choices
- 98. Downtown Vancouver 1996-2011 1996 - 2011 +10% PEOPLE ENTERING DOWNTOWN 1996 - 2011 -25% VEHICLES ENTERING DOWNTOWN 1996 - 2011 +26% DOWNTOWN JOBS 1996 - 2011 +75% DOWNTOWN POPULATION • More people & jobs Peak periods = 7-9 am, 11am - 1pm, 3-6pm) Source: City of Vancouver estimates based on screenline counts and census information. Change in population & job numbers have been rounded to the nearest 1%, and screenline counts to the nearest 5%. (peak periods) (peak periods) • Less cars, but more trips
- 99. Downtown Vancouver 1996-2011 1996 - 2011 +10% PEOPLE ENTERING DOWNTOWN 1996 - 2011 -25% VEHICLES ENTERING DOWNTOWN 1996 - 2011 +26% DOWNTOWN JOBS 1996 - 2011 +75% DOWNTOWN POPULATION • More people & jobs Peak periods = 7-9 am, 11am - 1pm, 3-6pm) Source: City of Vancouver estimates based on screenline counts and census information. Change in population & job numbers have been rounded to the nearest 1%, and screenline counts to the nearest 5%. (peak periods) (peak periods) • Less cars, but more trips
- 100. Downtown Vancouver 1996-2011 1996 - 2011 +10% PEOPLE ENTERING DOWNTOWN 1996 - 2011 -25% VEHICLES ENTERING DOWNTOWN 1996 - 2011 +26% DOWNTOWN JOBS 1996 - 2011 +75% DOWNTOWN POPULATION • More people & jobs Peak periods = 7-9 am, 11am - 1pm, 3-6pm) Source: City of Vancouver estimates based on screenline counts and census information. Change in population & job numbers have been rounded to the nearest 1%, and screenline counts to the nearest 5%. (peak periods) (peak periods) • Less cars, but more trips
- 102. 1960 1976 2010 Traffic into Downtown Vancouver
- 103. Robson Street
- 104. Robson Street
- 106. Bute Street minipark at Haro Traffic calming / Road diets
- 107. Dunsmuir Street separated bike lane Cycle Tracks
- 108. City as Workout Tamaki Drive
- 109. “City mulls plan for bike station with showers near Waterfront Station”Revaluing Parking
- 111. New Port Mann Bridge – widest in the world
- 112. Gateway Project Highway 1 widening
- 114. Motordom drove out choice.
- 116. . So we’ll change. Incrementally? Seismically?
- 117. Apocalyptically? “Nothing so terrible could ever actually happen.”
- 118. . How far will we go?
- 119. . Motordom is now a civilizational bet.
- 120. What is a decision-maker to do?
- 125. A truly stable system expects the unexpected, is prepared to be disrupted, waits to be transformed.- Tom Robbins
- 126. We overestimate what can be achieved in a year … And underestimate what can happen in a decade.
- 127. Plans may be useless.
- 129. What incremental change can you achieve? $162.90 price@sfu.ca
- 131. Price Tags pricetags.wordpress.com SFU City Program sfu.ca/city Gordon Price