Prepared by Jean Chrysostome NGABITSINZE, Minister of State, Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources, Rwanda

1. Jean Chrysostome NGABITSINZE
Minister of State
Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources
Global food and energy price
volatility:
Implications for Rwanda

2. CROP YIELDS AND
IMPORTS

3. -
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Import quantities of wheat in the past five
years (in 1,000MT)
Russian Federation Argentina Canada Germany Poland

4. -
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Quantities of Soybean in the past 5 years (in
1,000MT)
Congo, The Democratic Republic Of Malawi
Tanzania, United Republic Of Uganda
Zambia

6. 0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
%
to
total
sugar
imports
Countries
Major sugar import countries in the last 5 years
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

7. -
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Import quantities of rice in the past 5
years (in 1,000MT)
India Pakistan
Tanzania, United Republic Of Thailand
United Arab Emirates

8. -
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Import quantities of Maize in the past 5
years (in 1,000MT)
Congo, The Democratic Republic Of
Kenya
Tanzania, United Republic Of
Uganda
Zambia

13. COMMODITY PRICES

14. Global commodity prices are rising
Many imported
commodities are
directly or indirectly
critical to food and
nutrition security in
Rwanda
 Edible oils
 Soybean (feed)
 Fertilizer
 Gas, oil
0
50
100
150
200
250
Index
value
(2010=100)
Monthly indices of global commodity
prices, 1/2020 to 2/2022
Energy Agriculture
Food Oils & Meals
Grains Fertilizers
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (“Pink Sheets”), March 2022:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets

17. Signs of inflation in Rwanda
 Food, feed prices with high import components are increasing
 Import-dependent energy, fuel, transport prices are increasing
 Other rising costs may be driven by more local or regional factors
Source: MINAGRI, eSoko price database, April 2022
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
RWf/Kg
Local commodity prices, 1/2020 to 4/2022
Wheat flour Wheat Soybean Rice-TZA Rice-Asia

18. Signs of inflation in Rwanda
Source: NISR, Consumer Price Index, April 2022
 Food, feed prices with high import components are increasing
 Import-dependent energy, fuel, transport prices are increasing
 Other rising costs may be driven by more local or regional factors
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Index
value
(2014=100)
Consumer price index, 1/2020 to 4/2022
CPI
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels

19. Fertilizer: Significant exposure
 The Fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation 2018-24
aims to increase fertilizer use significantly
 The cost of maintaining progress to date is increasing dramatically
 Will our progress to date be reversed by international events?
Fertilizer subsidies in constant (2017) RWF m and as a share of budget,
FY 2016/17 to 2021/22
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/22
Percent
Constant
(2017)
RWF
million
Fertilizer subsidies (constant
RWF m)
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Import quantities of fertilizer in the past 5
years ( in 1,000MT)
Finland Saudi Arabia Morocco Russian Federation Norway

20. What are the options?
 Short-term solutions
 Keep trade flowing, keep markets competitive
 Improve smallholder productivity and commercialization
 Provide subsidies where needed
 Encourage food substitution
 Continuous monitoring of the Macroeconomic environment and ensuring
its stability overtime
 Take tough strategic decisions
 Medium- to long-term solutions
 Improve smallholder productivity and commercialization
 Increase preparedness for future shocks
 Strengthen trade integration
Rwanda cannot afford to be complacent

21. Thank you