2. Content
2
● Executive Summary
● Macro and Market Highlights
● Sector Highlights and Top Picks
○ Banks
○ Consumer
○ Property
○ Cement
○ Power
○ Oil & Gas
○ Logistics
● Appendices
○ Macro Scorecard
○ Disclaimer
○ Contacts
3. Executive Summary
3
• First half macro performance was strong.
Low GDP growth resulted largely from weather conditions affecting agricultural output.
Consumption, investment and trade numbers were all strong.
We therefore see good investment opportunities in consumer, logistics, power and cement sectors
and some in banking and property.
• Government should use care in trying to stimulate the economy to hit GDP target.
Government officials have said that the country must take action to achieve 6.7% GDP target.
Increasing credit growth in response to low Q1 GDP already impacted some banks and doesn’t seem
to be a tool for further stimulus.
We are already seeing the return of moderate inflation. Stimulus could potentially push us out of the
moderate range.
• Vietnam equities also performed well in the first half.
The VN-Index increased 9.2%, which is in line with its long-term growth trend.
Market performance was very much in line with neighboring countries and seemed to be heavily
influenced by global trends more than domestic developments.
• While 700 is very possible, current trends could bring the market beyond fair value.
At current levels, valuation multiples are starting to look a bit high and prices are approaching our
targets. We see up to 5% room for price appreciation during H2 before the market is “fully-
intrinsically-valued”.
Technical trends and global markets could push Vietnam markets beyond fair valuation this year but
also pose outside risks.
5. 0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
Industry & Const Services Agri & Forestry
Government’s GDP growth target of 6.7% is hard to achieve
5
VCSC forecast
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, VCSC forecast
6.27%
6.75% 6.75%
GDPGrowth
• Agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector’s negative growth caused by the historic cold spell in the North and
drought and salinization in Mekong Delta in H1 2016 severely impacts full-year economic growth.
• Domestic demand will stay strong in the second half of the year because of enterprises’ production acceleration
and higher consumer consumption at the end of year, leading to a high growth rate for the service sector.
• The mining sector’s negative growth rate (-2.2%), mainly caused by the decrease in global commodity prices,
greatly contributed to the industry and construction sector’s lower growth rate in H1 2016 compared with H1
2015. Fluctuations in global oil priced and expected weaker global demand resulting from the recent slowdown of
the global economy, including Vietnam’s major export markets such as the US, EU, and China, are believed to
have unfavorable effects on Vietnam’s industry sector in the second half of this year and even in 2017.
6. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Disbursed FDI Registered FDI Growth of manufacturing (%)
USDbillion
YoYGrowth(%)
25
Strong FDI flow thanks to free trade agreements
6
Source: Foreign Investment Agency, General Statistics Office of Vietnam
VCSC Forecast
16
• FDI achieved impressive results in H1 2016 as disbursed FDI and registered FDI reached USD7.25 billion
(+15.1% vs H1 2015) and USD11.3 billion (+105.4% vs H1 2015).
• With the government’s efforts to improve business conditions and the benefits gained from the yet-ratified TPP
and ratified Vietnam-EU FTA, we believe that Vietnam can reach USD16 billion of FDI disbursement and USD25
billion of registered FDI in 2016.
• The establishment of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in early 2016 is a major milestone in regional
economic integration and improves the region’s competitiveness in attracting foreign investment.
• Constantly rising costs in China drive the investment flow to Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam.
7. Real retail sales growth declined slightly but consumer confidence rose
7
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, AC Nielsen
101
119
88
103
98 97
96
99
94 95
87 88
96 95
97
98 99 98
102
106
112
104
105 108 Consumer Confidence
Q1 2016 - 109
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
28%
32%
36%
40%
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Volume growth Value growth
Real Retail Sales
Growth H1 2016
vs H1 2015 –
7.5%
• Retail sales in H1 2016 grew by 7.5% vs H1 2015, lower than the growth rate of 8.3% in the same period last
year, indicating weaker domestic purchasing power in the first half this year than H1 2015.
• Consumer confidence in Q1 2016 increased by one point from Q4 2015 to 109, the highest level since Q2 2015.
Vietnam’s consumer confidence, which ranks fifth globally in H1 2016, implies the optimistic outlook of
Vietnamese consumers.
8. Despite a trade surplus in H1 2016, a trade deficit is predicted at year end with the
export growth rate lower than the target of 10%
8
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Ac Nielsen
176.6
180.3
8.9%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Export Turnover Import Turnover Trade Balance Export Growth (%) Import Growth (%)
USD
billion
VCSC Forecast
-3.7
9.0%
• In H1 2016, export and import turnover reached USD82.2 billion (+5.9% vs H1 2015) and USD80.7 billion (-0.5%
vs H1 2015) respectively, resulting in a trade surplus of USD1.5 billion. The low export growth rate in H1 2016
was mainly caused by decreases in exports of rice and mining products (coal, crude oil). Imports incurred
negative growth with imports from China decreasing by 2.9% vs the same period last year.
• The recent slowdown of the global economy weakens consumption demand of Vietnam’s big export markets (e.g.
the US, EU, China). Therefore, we believe it will be challenging for Vietnam to reach the export growth target of
10% and we adjusted our forecast to 9%.
• We predict that import turnover will increase by 8.9% in 2016 because of the surge in the import of machinery
and materials for infrastructure building in H2 2016. Consequently, the trade deficit is expected to reach USD3.7
billion, equivalent to 2% of total export turnover.
9. -1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
CPI MoM (RHS)
CPI YoY (LHS)
We expect the return of moderate inflation in 2016
9
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, VCSC forecast
VCSC
forecast
• Since the beginning of the year, CPI has risen 2.35%, mainly due to high inflation of healthcare service (YTD
+25.4%) and food & foodstuffs (YTD +2.32%).
• Inflation in 2016 is expected at 4.03%, higher than we previously forecast (3.5%). The main factors putting
pressure on inflation in H2 2016 are another increase in healthcare costs and higher education fees when the
new school year starts. Additionally, prices of the food & foodstuffs category will continue to rise, however to a
lesser extent, mainly because of increasing foodstuff prices.
Categories Weighting YTD CPI (%)
Food & catering services 36.12% 2.32%
Beverage and tobacco 3.59% 1.46%
Garment, footgear, hats 6.37% 0.78%
Housing and construction
materials
15.73% 2.03%
Family appliances and tools 7.31% 0.58%
Medicine & healthcare 5.04% 25.37%
Transportation 9.37% -3.52%
Telecommunication 2.89% -0.35%
Education 5.99% 2.27%
Culture, sport, entertainment 4.29% 1.3%
Others 3.30% 1.56%
Year-end inflation: 4.03%
10. Forex rate: Dong has been the most stable currency in ASEAN region
10
Source: Bloomberg
• VND has appreciated by 0.8% since the beginning of 2016 and is the most stable currency in the region. The
stability of VND amid CNY depreciation in H1 2016 indicates that VND has become less sensitive to CNY
movements.
• Circular 07/2016/TT-NHNN, which allows export firms to borrow short-term funds in USD, and stronger credit
growth will increase demand for US dollars in H2 2016. In addition, the expected trade deficit at the end of the
year will also put more pressure on VND.
• Despite more depreciation pressure in the second half of the year, we expect VND to depreciate by only 1% in
2016. Strong FDI flow, high foreign reserves (currently USD38 billion), and expected strong foreign remittance in
H2 2016 will provide an ample foreign money supply. Moreover, the high possibility of the Fed not raising interest
rates until next year and the US economy’s recent slowdown, which devalues USD, also support our forecast.
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
CNY
IDR
PHP
THB
VND
Year-end VND depreciation: 1%
11. 20,600
21,000
21,400
21,800
22,200
22,600
23,000 Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Interbank Upper band Lower band Reference Rate
22,529
22,304
21,873
21,217
Forex rate: SBV’s actions help to maintain stability
11
Source: Bloomberg
• SBV’s new exchange rate mechanism applied since January 2016 helps the FX rate fluctuate in a more narrow
range and thus would not shock enterprises as it previously has.
• SBV’s timely actions to balance USD supply and demand through treasury bill issuance on the OMO market also
plays an important role in stabilizing the USD/VND exchange rate.
Year-end FX rate: VND22,700/USD
12. Bond yields will be on a slight uptrend in H2 2016
12
Source: Bloomberg
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
10Y
6.97%
5Y
6.16%
1Y
4.44%
BondYield
Year-end 5Y-bond yield: 6.3%
• Low bond yields in H1 2016 were mainly attributed to high bank liquidity and strong demand for bonds.
• Bond supply is expected to be lower in H2 2016 as the government completed over 80% of the full-year bond
issuance target. The lower supply will depress bond yields for the next few months, but tighter liquidity at the
banks heading into year end will nudge up yields.
13. H1 gains did not put us in a bubble
13
Source: Bloomberg
• H1 2016 gains in the VN-Index were in line with long-term trends.
• At 640, the index did not appear to be overvalued, though recent gains have put us above the trend line.
• Achieving 700 by year-end may put us above the long-term trend line.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Bubble
700
14. ASEAN peers seem to be moving together
14
Source: Bloomberg
• While domestic factors did create some differences, the VN-Index’s YTD performance has been in line with our
peers.
• Vietnam and the Philippines were particularly hard hit by turmoil in China’s markets in January.
• Oil prices, which dropped below USD30 per barrel in January, but have since rallied past $50, have been a
driving factor for all four markets.
-16.00%
-12.00%
-8.00%
-4.00%
0.00%
4.00%
8.00%
12.00%
16.00%
04-Jan-16
11-Jan-16
18-Jan-16
25-Jan-16
01-Feb-16
08-Feb-16
15-Feb-16
22-Feb-16
29-Feb-16
07-Mar-16
14-Mar-16
21-Mar-16
28-Mar-16
04-Apr-16
11-Apr-16
18-Apr-16
25-Apr-16
02-May-16
09-May-16
16-May-16
23-May-16
30-May-16
06-Jun-16
13-Jun-16
20-Jun-16
27-Jun-16
Year-to-datePerformance
Vietnam
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Thailand, 12.19%
Philippines, 12.14%
Indonesia, 9.22%
Vietnam, 9.19%
15. The VN-Index’s rising P/E ratio has been in line with the regional trend
15
Source: Bloomberg
• Vietnam continues to trade at a lower P/E multiple than its peer markets, despite having a strong ROE and ROA.
This is because of its low liquidity and high risk free rate.
• The spread between the VN-Index and neighboring markets’ P/Es has held stable this year.
• Although the VN-Index P/E ratio has been rising and is near the top of its historical range, this movement has
been mirrored in the other markets.
Note: Foreign net inflow includes USD117 million of VIC shares sold by foreign holders of
convertible bonds that converted.
(at June 30) Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam
SET Index JCI Index PCOMP Index Vnindex index
P/E 19.8 26.7 23.0 13.7
P/B 1.8 2.4 2.7 1.8
ROE 9.0 9.7 12.0 13.9
ROA 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.4
Market cap USDm 394,968 409,254 193,337 56,985
Foreign net inflow
-YTD USDm 1,038 984 641 (79)
YTD CPI Increase 0.38% 3.45% 1.90% 2.40%
5 yr Govt bond yield 1.63% 7.19% 3.25% 6.09%
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
SET Index JCI Index
PCOMP Index VNINDEX Index
Market P/E Ratios
16. The rise in P/E ratio exceeds levels justifiable by bond yields
16
Source: Bloomberg
• The VN-Index P/E ratio increased significantly compared to a modest decline in 5-year government bond yields.
• We continue to forecast a moderate increase in bond yields and the currently high level of the P/E ratio could
mean that further multiple expansion would bring stocks into overvalued territory.
• Rather, it seems that the P/E ratio is being pulled up by regional factors more than domestic trends.
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Bondyield
PEratio
VNI PE 5YR Gov Bond yield
17. Correlation to oil prices demonstrates global influences
17
Source: Bloomberg
• We have manipulated the scale of the axes to demonstrate the point. Actually, Brent Crude has risen 34% YTD
vs 13% for the VN-Index. But the similarity of directional movements has been undeniable this year.
• We also don’t make any claims regarding causality, only correlation. In many instances, factors that cause
changes in oil prices – such as declines in Chinese manufacturing, the Fed not raising rates or Brexit –
simultaneously impact Vietnamese stocks.
• The correlation can be viewed as a result of Vietnam’s integration into the global economy, with heavy reliance
on trade and FDI.
• If this correlation were to hold true throughout 2016, then Brent Crude at USD60/bbl would equate to the VN-
Index reaching 680.
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
1/4/2016 2/4/2016 3/4/2016 4/4/2016 5/4/2016 6/4/2016 7/4/2016
VN-Index Brent Crude
580 was a
technical
resistance
barrier for the
VNI.
18. Technical barrier has been broken
18
Source: Bloomberg
• As we enter H2, the VN-Index appears to be breaking through its long-term barrier of 640 and now has no
technical barrier until 690, so that 680 – 700 seems quite feasible.
• Positive regulatory developments, such as intra-day trading and the launch of the derivatives market, may help
fuel sentiment further.
• Global trends may be of greater influence though. Foreign investors would have been less concerned by the
technical barrier than local investors, further supporting our view that the rally is based more on global than local
factors.
500.0
520.0
540.0
560.0
580.0
600.0
620.0
640.0
660.0
Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16
19. Coverage Universe indicates fundamental value at 670
19
Source: Bloomberg & VCSC
• The weighted average upside to TP on June 30 was 4.7%. Applying the same increase to the VN-Index would
bring it to 670, which would make our year-end target of 680 - 700 challenging on a fundamental basis.
• While 700 may be possible before year-end, this may push the index beyond fundamental values.
20. 20
Bank sector: Clear bifurcation surfacing on bank
fundamentals
JULY 2016 VCSC RESEARCH
21. 21
OVERVIEW
• Bifurcation of Q1 2016 results: impressive earnings growth and healthy balance sheet at VCB while other banks either
grouped into middle batch of “distracted but past midway point on restructuring” and far-end batch of “fully absorbed in
restructuring.”
• Movements of provision expense have a big impact on the bottom line, but banks diligent in provisioning started to see
provision expense coming down.
- CTG: + Q1 2016’s provision expense reduced vs Q1 2015
+ but provision expense in FY16 will be higher than FY15 due to increased NPLs and current lagging
of provisioning for VAMC bonds
Banks – clear bifurcation surfacing on bank fundamentals
Y-o-Y growth VCB CTG BID MBB ACB STB
PPOP 21.2% 25.1% 25.1% -28.1% 2.6% -78.3%
Provision -14.0% -4.6% 103.4% -68.6% 5.7% -85.0%
PBT 58.0% 53.8% -8.6% 10.7% 8.4% -75.5%
NPAT 62.3% 54.2% -10.5% 13.8% 10.5% -74.6%
Total provision/total
loan book
2.4% 1.0% 1.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.2%
Source: unaudited financial statements Q1/2016
Figure: Q1 2016 results
22. Banks – clear bifurcation surfacing on bank fundamentals
22
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
0
5
10
15
20
Credit growth (left) GDP growth (right)
OVERVIEW (Continued)
Credit growth vs GDP growth
• GDP growth is correlated with credit growth. Outstanding
balance was approximately 115% of GDP at the end of
2015.
• Credit growth running roughly in-line with last year (6.2%
H1 2016 vs 6.3% H1 2015 – source: GSO).
• Credit growth is varied between banks, with VCB and ACB
having a high growth rate, BID in the middle, while CTG,
MBB and STB are quite slow.
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Credit growth
VCB
CTG
BID
MBB
ACB
STB
Credit growth Q1/16
VCB 6.3%
CTG 2.8%
BID 4.2%
MBB 2.5%
ACB 7.6%
STB 2.6%
Sector wide 3.0%
24. 24
OVERVIEW (Continued)
• Insufficient capital evidenced by:
- No cash dividend at 15 of total 23 banks that publish AGM documents
- Nine of these 23 banks have plans to issue stock dividend/bonus/rights
- Many banks are looking to issue primary shares
• Continued delay of banking reform: Basel II is yet to roll out; Cir.06/2016 amended Cir. 36/2014 is less strict than the initial
intention.
Banks - clear bifurcation surfacing on bank fundamentals
25. 25
OUTLOOK
• More competitiveness in retail segment: suggestive of pressure on margin and less aggressive growth.
• Equity raising is challenging as domestic capital is limited and global appetite for minority bank stocks shrinks.
Figure: Recent banking stock auctions and results
Banks - clear bifurcation surfacing on bank fundamentals
Banks
Auction
date
No. of shares for
auction (million)
No. of shares
sold (million)
Clearance
rate
Stockholder
Clearance
value (VND
billion)
Saigon Bank 04/27/2015 0.50 - 0% Sabeco
AB Bank 10/14/2015 81.58 40.0 49.0% EVN; EVN Hanoi 400.0
Maritime Bank 11/20/2015 71.50 - 0% VNPT
Saigon Bank 12/02/2015 10.00 - 0% Saigon Tourist
TP Bank 04/25/2016 14.29 8.7 61.2% Mobiphone 77.7
SeABank 04/25/2016 33.40 - 0% Mobiphone
VietA Bank 05/12/2016 12.30 0.0003 0.002% SJC
Saigon Bank 06/24/2016 16.88 16.88 100% VietinBank 210.9
Source: HNX; vietstock
STRATEGY
• Our top stock pick is VCB as it possesses sector leading characteristics and the best earnings growth outlook of our
coverage universe.
• We recommend on MBB because of expected reduction of credit cost and active changes the bank is currently
undertaking.
26. Banks – clear bifurcation surfacing on bank fundamentals
26
Company Ticker Rating Market
Cap
USDmn
Foreign
Avail in
USDmn
Target
price
VND /
share
Current
Price
VND/sh
Upside
%
Div
yield @
current
price
FY15 EPS
growth %
FY16
EPS
growth
%
FY17
EPS
growth
%
FY16
P/E
(x)
MR
QTR
P/B
(x)
Asia Commercial JSB ACB O-PF 797.0 0 21,800 19,000 14.7% 0.0% 9.4% 12.2% 14.2% 16.9 1.5
Vietcombank VCB M-PF 5,635.0 499.4 47,800 47,300 1.1% 1.5% 5.2% 76.1% 7.4% 16.4 2.7
VietinBank CTG O-PF 2,796.3 4.4 18,700 16,800 11.3% 3.0% 20.9% -11.3% 3.1% 12.4 1.1
Military Bank MBB M-PF 1,086.5 0 15,500 14,900 4.0% 3.4% -4.7% -20.7% -2.9% 9.9 1.0
BIDV BID M-PF 2,674.5 745.4 17,000 17,500 -2.9% 0.0% -1.0% 15.7% 7.9% 11.8 1.4
Sacombank (*) STB SELL 911.9 174.4 8,100 11,300 -28.4% 0.0% -54.6% N/A N/A N/A 0.9
Figure: Bank Index vs VN-INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
(*) Unaudited financial statement 2015 (audited FS has not been issued)(*) Unaudited financial statement 2015 (audited FS has not been issued)
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16
Bank Index VNI
27. VCB – Q1 2016 marks the beginning of good times
27
COMPANY OVERVIEW
• Lends primarily to SOE/large corporates and is given more
commercial freedom vis-a-vis other three SOE banks.
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Impressive Q1 2016 results: NPAT growth of 62%; the
second highest loan growth of 6.3% and NIM continues the
increasing trend starting in Q4 2014.
• Low cost of funds is a competitive advantage as VCB can
charge low loan rates and lend to better customers.
• Consistenly high provision in the survey period from 2008
to 2016 speeds up bad debts cleaning.
• Top position in foreign currency trading, foreign payment
and only bank in Vietnam to operate a foreign currency
interbank settlement system which allows better access to
demand deposit funds.
• Heighten FX interbank activities is a by-product of VCB’s
dominance in interbank settlement system and its ability to
accumulate USD customer deposits, all three areas are re-
enforcing.
• Despite VCB trading close to our target price we still push
clients into VCB as it has the best earnings growth
momentum of the peer group and will always be a prime
beneficiary of foreign inflows into the banking sector.
STOCK INFO
Rating M-PF
Price @ June 30, 2016 47,300
Target, VND/share 47,800
Total Return incl.Div 2.6%
Market Cap, USD mn 5,635.0
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 1.29
Foreign Room, USD mn 499.4
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Pre-provision profit growth 23.4% 25.2% 17.0%
NPAT less MI growth 15.7% 59.8% 27.1%
EPS growth 5.2% 76.1% 7.4%
PER @ market price 28.9x 16.4x 15.3x
PBR @ market price 2.8x 2.2x 2.0x
ROE 12.0% 15.8% 16.4%
Dividend Yld @ market price 2.1% 1.5% 1.5%
NIMs 2.5% 2.7% 2.8%
28. MBB – Q1 2016 put down as a transition quarter
28
COMPANY OVERVIEW
• Traditionally wholesale focused bank specializing in serving
military industrial complex and companies affiliated with
military.
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Low cost of fund advantage.
• MBB has the second highest provisioning buffer of our
coverage universe, after VCB.
• New credit approval system (CRA) promises near seamless
automation and is expected to facilitate better credit quality.
• MBB is one of the highest CAR level (12.8% in FY15) in the
banking sector.
• MBB’s anemic performance will turn once the market sees a
drop off in credit cost.
RISKS
• NIMs is in a declining trend, but will rebound after high yield
government bonds mature and retail loans enter high rate
phase after promotional period.
STOCK INFO
Rating M-PF
Price @ June 30, 2016 14,900
Target, VND/share 15,500
Total Return incl.Div 7.4%
Market Cap, USD mn 1,086.5
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 0.68
Foreign Room, USD mn 0
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Pre-provision profit growth 2.5% 2.6% 5.9%
NPAT less MI growth 0.8% 1.5% 2.9%
EPS growth -4.7% -20.7% -2.9%
PER @ market price 7.8x 9.9x 10.2x
PBR @ market price 1.1x 1.0x 1.0x
ROE 12.7% 10.8% 10.3%
Dividend Yld @ market price 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%
NIMs 3.4% 3.1% 3.1%
30. FMCG – Urban firmed up to offset rural’s slowing growth due to drought
30
FMCG consumption growth in terms of value
5%
4%
2%
4%
1%
-1%
Dairy Beverages Packaged foods
Urban
Rural
Volume growth in 5M16 vs 5M15 by categories
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
1.9%
8.7%
4.0%
5.4%
Urban Rural
5M15 vs 5M14 5M16 vs 5M15
31. Surging spending on durable goods is further evidence of consumer optimism
31
34,040
50,363
58,598
5M 2014 5M 2015 5M 2016
Number of passenger cars sold in Vietnam (units)
Source: VAMA, company disclosures
33%
80%
FPT Retail MWG
Top mobile and consumer electronics retailers’ revenue
growth in 5M 2016 vs 5M 2015
32. Modern retail is showing why it is one of the most fascinating spaces to be in
32
9%
3% -3%
8%
-5%
51%
Medium-sizedshops
Smallshops
Wetmarket
Specialtystores
Hyper&supermarkets
Minimarket/Convenience
stores
FMCG growth (value) in 5M16 vs 5M15 by
trade channels
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 9M15 4M16
Shop&Go Circle K B's mart
Family Mart AEON Citimart VinMart+
Number of convenience stores/minimarts in Vietnam
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Source: VCSC’s compilation
33. Local brands are getting their chance and need to position their products properly
33
% of people
considering
health as #1
and #2 concern
34%
2Q15
1Q16
4Q15
3Q15
% of consumers who think that local companies are more
attuned to customers' needs and tastes
Source: Nielsen Source: Nielsen
Consumer products need to be health-oriented
69%
60%
55% 60% 65% 70%
Vietnam
SEA
34. Investment strategy
34
• Investing in best-of-breed platform, management and execution in Vietnam’s underdeveloped retailing sector
• Local players with strong brand names and products addressing consumer health consciousness
• Riding on players with brand and quality-oriented proposition instead of price competition for sustainable growth
35. MWG – Doing justice to the crown jewel of Vietnam’s retailing sector
35
COMPANY OVERVIEW
• Leader in mobile phone and consumer electronics retailing
• Rolling out new minimart chain in 2017
INVESTMENT THESIS
• The best management and best platform in Vietnam’s
underdeveloped modern retail sector.
• Customer-centric approach, state-of-the-art ERP,
unrivaled store opening capabilities and market-leading e-
commerce form hard-to-replicate competitive advantages.
• Upside potential from the new minimart chain, which is
likely to be scaled up in 2017. Pilot program has delivered
satisfactory results with average monthly sales per store
surging to USD31,000 in May. Store format has been
finalized with fresh produce being a crucial item.
• Stellar 5M 2016 results with revenues +80% and NPAT
+86% vs 5M 2015, underpinned by a 15% SSSG, new
store expansion and doubling online sales.
• Attractive valuation at 10.6x FY16 PER, unjustifiably
cheap given MWG’s growth profile.
RISKS
• Failed experiment with the minimarket chain leading to
growth slowing down after 2017 – low probability.
• Challenges in dealing with logistics issues in minimarts.
STOCK INFO
Rating BUY
Price @ June 30, 2016 123,000
Target 160,000
Total Return incl. Div 31.3%
Market Cap, USD mn 703
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 1.0
Foreign Room, USD mn 0.0
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Revenue growth 60.3% 60.4% 32.9%
PBT growth 59.6% 54.0% 33.8%
NPAT less MI growth 60.4% 59.3% 33.8%
EPS growth 52.8% 52.0% 31.2%
PER @ market price 16.1 10.6 8.1
PBR @ market price 7.3 4.6 3.1
ROE 54.2% 52.7% 45.3%
Dividend Yld @ market price 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
D/E 82.6% 69.9% 46.1%
36. FPT – Growth gathers momentum as we look for a much better H2 2016
36
COMPANY OVERVIEW
• First in software outsourcing, second in broadband, and
second in mobile retailing in Vietnam.
INVESTMENT THESIS
• 5M 2016 EPS dropped 2% but we look to a much better
H2 as last-mile depreciation winding down will prop up
Telecom’s margins while more domestic IT projects will be
finished and booked in H2 2016.
• Telecom Services’ top line +26% vs 5M 2015 implies
significant profit growth after last-mile costs in HCMC and
Hanoi finish depreciation by the end of June 2016.
• Software Outsourcing (SO): Revenues +38% while PBT
+26% in 5M 2016 vs 5M 2015 with margin improvements
seen in April-May. Japan remains the strongest market.
• Lost sales in Distribution (PBT -40% vs 5M 2015) dragged
down 5M performance although Retail (PBT +37% vs 5M
2015) partly offset that on the back of new store openings.
• Potential catalyst from the sell-down of ICT Trading and
Retail segment (likely in Q4 2016).
• Undemanding valuation at FY16F PER of 9.0x, 18%-50%
discount to regional peers across business segments.
RISKS
• Insufficient human resources to foster SO growth – FPT
University can meet 30-40% of FPT Software’s HR needs.
STOCK INFO
Rating BUY
Price @ June 30, 2016 41,800
Target 54,000
Total Return incl. Div 34.7%
Market Cap, USD mn 830
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 1.6
Foreign Room, USD mn 0.0
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Revenue growth 16.2% 3.0% 11.8%
PBT growth 15.9% 9.4% 15.2%
NPAT less MI growth 17.8% 9.9% 15.3%
EPS growth 17.8% 9.4% 15.3%
PER @ market price 9.9 9.0 7.8
PBR @ market price 2.2 2.0 1.8
ROE 23.4% 23.3% 23.8%
Dividend Yld @ market price 4.8% 5.5% 6.0%
D/E 86.5% 73.8% 62.8%
37. VNM – A regional scale player, stock should see further multiple expansion
37
COMPANY OVERVIEW
• Leader of Vietnam dairy industry with > 50% market share
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Compelling long-term growth potential with Vietnam’s dairy
consumption/capita only one-fourth of APAC’s average.
• Most extensive distribution channel in rural areas to
capitalize on this hot spot of consumption.
• Potential for multiple expansion with FY16 PER of 19.3x,
compared to regional peers’ 24x, given that VNM has
reached a regional scale in terms of profits and market
cap, and that VNM should remain a foreign inflow magnet
when it finally opens up its FOL.
• 25% EPS growth estimated in FY16 vs FY15, driven by
volume growth and profit margin expansion on the back of
lower input milk powder cost base.
• Impressive Q1 2016 results with NPAT +39% vs Q1 2015
reaffirm our upbeat projection. Volume growth in domestic
market is displaying strong momentum, +18% vs Q1 2015
while export also rose 20% vs Q1 2015.
RISKS
• Fluctuations in input milk price - VNM is expanding cow
farms to increase self-supply capabilities.
STOCK INFO
Rating O-PF
Price @ June 30, 2016 141,000
Target 161,000
Total Return incl. Div 17.7%
Market Cap, USD mn 7,524
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 4.2
Foreign Room, USD mn 0
KEY METRICS 2015F 2016F 2017F
Revenue growth 14.6% 15.5% 12.9%
PBT growth 23.0% 25.1% 8.7%
NPAT less MI growth 28.1% 25.0% 8.0%
EPS growth 28.1% 25.0% 8.0%
PER @ market price 24.2 19.3 17.9
PBR @ market price 8.2 7.2 6.3
ROE 38.5% 43.9% 41.7%
Dividend Yld @ market price 3.8% 3.5% 3.7%
D/E 8.8% 1.5% 1.4%
38. DQC – A new lighting era for Vietnam, a new growth era for DQC
38
COMPANY OVERVIEW
• Leading lighting company in Vietnam
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Vietnam’s lighting industry is forecast to grow >10% with
LED growing >30% per annum.
• DQC is at the forefront to benefit from the transition from
traditional to LED lighting, through:
o A commitment to quality products and services that has
proven to be a winning model.
o One of the most recognizable brands in Vietnam
supported by a nationwide distribution network.
o Aggressively launching LED products, to be introduced to
consumers via a new showroom network.
• Bad debt collection to end by YE2016, creating strong
financial backing for capacity expansion. Cash is currently
19% of total assets.
• VCSC forecasts revenue and EBIT CAGR of 13% in next
five years based on a conservative basis.
RISKS
• Price competition from domestic low-scale, assembly-
oriented players to weigh on margins.
• Exports will struggle further as DQC has to prove its LED
products to partners while working to reduce costs further.
STOCK INFO
Rating M-PF
Price @ June 30, 2016 75,500
Target 73,500
Total Return incl. Div 1.3%
Market Cap, USD mn 107.3
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 0.1
Foreign Room, USD mn 21.2
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Revenue growth -11.5% 13.7% 14.5%
PBT growth -12.9% -0.2% 22.4%
NPAT less MI growth -12.9% 2.0% 28.4%
EPS growth -12.8% 2.0% 26.2%
PER @ market price 11.7x 11.6x 9.1x
PBR @ market price 2.0x 1.8x 1.6x
ROE 20.0% 18.5% 21.2%
Dividend Yld @ market price 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
D/E 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
41. -
1,500
3,000
4,500
Mid-range transactions - units
HCMC Hanoi
Mid-range: Transactions to pick up in H2 2016 on the back of durable demand and
low interest rates
41
Source: CBRE, VCSC research
42. Mid-range segment: A new era with the booming number of sizeable projects,
reflecting strong market advancement and developers’ expectation…
42
Source: VCSC compilation – HCMC market
Celadon City – 9,000 units
River City – 8,000 units
Diamond City – 3,000 units
Venice City – 3,000 units
Richstar – 2,000 units
Diamond Riverside – 2,000 units
Gold View – 2,000 units
Sunrise Riverside – 2,000 units
East Gate – 2,000 units
Aquamarine – 7,000 units
Hoang Nam – 5,000 units
Palm Heights – 4,000 units
44. Townhouse/villa: New supply to flood the market in 2016-2018. Projects at
reasonable prices (USD130k – USD200k per unit) will continue to do well
44
Source: Savills, VCSC compilation and estimate for sizeable projects in HCMC market
Novaland – 1,000 units
KDH – 2,000 units
VIC – 5,000 units
Novaland – 1,500 units
Dai Quang Minh – 2,000 units
Pho Dong – 500 units
M.I.K – 1,000 units
Cityland – 1,000 units
BCI – 1,000 units
NLG – 500 units
Him Lam – 1,000 units
DXG - Keppel – 500 units
NLG – 500 units
An Phu – 500 units
45. Real Estate Index vs. VN-INDEX
Real Estate: Entering the other side of the cycle
Company Ticker Rating
Market
Cap
USDmn
Foreign
Avail in
USDmn
Target
price
VND /
share
Current
Price
VND/sh
Upside
%
Div
yield @
current
price
FY15
EPS
growth
%
FY16
EPS
growth
%
FY17
EPS
growth
%
FY16
P/E
(x)
MR
QTR
P/B
(x)
Vingroup VIC M-PF 4,404 720 47,300 49,400 -4.3% 0.0% -65.4% 60.0% 189.7% 50.9 3.9
Dat Xanh Group DXG BUY 80 7 23,200 15,300 37.9% 0.0% 43.5% -15.6% -25.6% 7.0 0.9
Khang Dien House KDH O-PF 183 0 24,800 22,800 11.8% 3.1% 49.1% 26.6% 76.2% 9.9 1.2
Source: Bloomberg
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16
VNINDEX Real Estate
45
46. 24
16
50
60
72
2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F
VIC's residential contract sales – VND’000bn
VIC – Prime developer but fairly priced on risk-adjusted return basis
46
INVESTMENT THESIS
• The largest high-end developer with a strong track
record of building mega projects.
• Benefiting from a diverse product portfolio across
Vietnam to mitigate liquidity risk.
• But the stock is fairly priced while risks are rising.
• Key risks: oversupply pressue may decelerate VIC’s
sales progress while consumer retail segment will continue
to make huge losses.
•
STOCK INFO
Rating M-PF
Price @ June 30 49,400
Target, VND/share 47,300
Total Return incl.Div -4.3%
Market Cap, USD mn 4,404
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 1.5
Foreign Room, USD mn 720
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Revenue growth 22.8% 45.9% 63.1%
PBT growth -47.3% 40.3% 189.7%
NPAT less MI growth -61.5% 60.0% 189.7%
EPS growth -65.4% 60.0% 189.7%
PER @ market price 81.4x 50.9x 17.6x
PBR @ market price 4.3x 3.9x 3.2x
ROE 5.6% 8.1% 20.2%
Dividend Yld @ market price 0.0% 0% 0%
47. 500
1,300
2,800
6,400
500
900
1,600
3,200
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2014 2015 2016 2017
Sales value (VNDbn) Sales volume (Units)
DXG – Good market insights lead to right choice of market positioning
47
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Right choice of new strategy with expansion into
low/mid-range property development at less than
VND25mn/m2.
• Proven sales capabilities with 20% market share in
nationwide brokerage market.
• Solid financials with net cash positon of 30% equity,
supportive of its acquisition strategy.
• Key risks: unproven capabilites in managing numerous
projects at the same time. Oversupply pressure in mid-
range segment.
STOCK INFO
Rating BUY
Price @ June 30 15,300
Target, VND/share 23,200
Total Return incl.Div* 37.9%
Market Cap, USD mn 80
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 0.4
Foreign Room, USD mn 7
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Revenue growth 175.5% 58.2% -2.7%
PBT growth 102.9% 25.5% 3.8%
NPAT less MI growth 100.6% 32.5% 2.9%
EPS growth 43.5% -15.6% -25.6%
PER @ market price* 5.9x 7.0x 9.4x
PBR @ market price* 0.9x 0.9x 0.7x
ROE 19.0% 12.8% 11.3%
Dividend Yld @ market price 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
* Adjusted for the upcoming 1:1 rights issue
48. 900
1,700
2,600
3,900320 530 490
2,150
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
2014 2015 2016F 2017F
Sales value (VNDbn) Sales volume (units)
KDH – Bright long-term outlook but lacking short-term catalysts
48
INVESTMENT THESIS
• The most reputable townhouse developer in HCMC,
proven execution and attractive products.
• Strong growth forecast in 2016-2020 but fairly priced
in one-year horizon.
• Bright long-term prospects with new 400ha land bank
through BCI acquisition but restructuring process could be
lengthy.
• Key risks: Surging supply across the city may put
pressure on KDH’s sales progress.
STOCK INFO
Rating O-PF
Price @ June 30 22,800
Target, VND/share 24,800
Total Return incl.Div 11.8%
Market Cap, USD mn 183
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 0.1
Foreign Room, USD mn 0
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Revenue growth 69.1% 101.9% 80.1%
PBT growth 209.1% 81.8% 69.2%
NPAT less MI growth 155.0% 59.2% 76.2%
EPS growth 49.1% 26.6% 76.2%
PER @ market price 12.5x 9.9x 5.6x
PBR @ market price 1.3x 1.2x 1.0x
ROE 8.0% 11.7% 17.1%
Dividend Yld @ market price 3.5% 3.1% 6.6%
49. CII – Real estate is a new key growth driver
49
STOCK INFO
Rating BUY
Price @ June 30 26,300
Target, VND/share 28,800
Total Return incl.Div 17.1%
Market Cap, USD mn 308.6
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 1.0
Foreign Room, USD mn 0.0
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Revenue growth -32.8% 8.1% 186.6%
PBT growth 56.0% 1.2% 53.1%
NPAT less MI growth 60.9% 21.1% 27.9%
EPS growth -11.8% -4.6% 24.2%
PER @ market price 8.9x 9.3x 7.5x
PBR @ market price 1.8x 1.6x 1.4x
ROE 21.2% 20.8% 22.3%
Dividend Yld @ market price 6.1% 7.6% 6.1%
COMPANY OVERVIEW
• The largest and most reputable private infrastructure
development company in Vietnam.
• Focuses on four essential segments: bridges & roads,
water, construction, and real estate.
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Good relationship with government and vertical integration
helps them get infrastructure projects and compete with
lower costs. In addition, financial structuring increases the
projects’ IRRs and improves cash flows.
• We expect high returns from real estate projects in the
Thu Thiem New Urban Area, District 2, HCMC due to the
low input costs and attractive location.
• No more dilution risk with high cash dividend.
• We forecast full-year results to rebound from low Q1
numbers and report 2016F NPAT growth of 21% Y-o-Y.
RISKS
• Lack of experience in developing real estate projects.
• Possibility of getting BOT and BT projects depends
heavily on relationship with government.
• Due to high leverage ratio, interest rate movement will
impact earnings.
51. Cement – Industrial construction to drive sales volume
51
OVERVIEW
• Cement consumption is on resilient recovery in tandem with the boom in construction activities. In the 5M 2016, total
domestic consumption increased 17% over the same period last year (vs 1% 5M 2015 YoY growth)
• Growth skewed to the South due to concentration of construction projects here (e.g. the metro line); The Northern market
remains lackluster with oversupply being an unsolved issue.
• Industry capacity increases, mainly concentrated in the North, leading to more severe oversupply situation in the North in
the future.
Source: VNCA
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
14 16
9 8 10 11
Total industry capacity Domestic consumption Export Industry's oversupply
Million tons
52. Cement – Industrial construction to drive sales volume
52
OUTLOOK
• The IPO of Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (VICEM) possibly in 2016, but more likely in 2017.
• H2 2016 likely to see the addition of 6 million tones of output capacity, but all will be in the North of Vietnam.
• FDI inflows into Vietnam’s manufacturing sector will boost factory construction.
• Healthy real estate market will spur domestic cement consumption.
• Government has allocated capital for public utility infrastructure.
STRATEGY
• We favor cement producers operating in the South due to the favorable supply-demand dynamics of this market and lucrative
growth opportunities from strong pipeline of construction projects.
• HT1 is the leader in this market with 28.5% market share and should benefit most from this trend along with their efforts to
boost sales to gain more market share this year.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
2013 2014 2015 2016F
FDI into Viet Nam(USD billion)
Government's development capital expenditure (USD billion)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Successful property transactions
in Ha Noi and Ho Chi Minh
53. Cement – Industrial construction to drive sales volume
53
Figure: Cement Index vs VN-INDEX
Source: Bloomberg – includes HT1, BCC,BTS, HOM and VTV
Company Ticker Rating Market
Cap
USDmn
Foreign
Avail in
USDmn
Target
price
VND/
share
Current
Price
VND/sh
Upside
%
Div
yield @
current
price
FY15
EPS
growth
%
FY16
EPS
growth
%
FY17
EPS
growth
%
FY16
P/E
(x)
MR
QTR
P/B
(x)
Ha Tien 1 HT1 BUY 371 39 36,300 29,900 21.4% 0% 138.6% 15.4% 22.2% 14.3x 2.1x
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16
Cement Index VNINDEX
54. HT1 – Riding the slipstream of a construction boom
54
COMPANY OVERVIEW
• HT1 is the leading cement producer in southern Vietnam
with a 28.5% market share and a 9% market share in
Vietnam.
• Over the course of 2016, utilisation will be 100% of 6
million tonnes of cement capacity, 100% self-sufficient in
clinker needs.
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Enjoys strong foothold in the southern market with more
benign supply-demand balance and robust demand growth
vs the oversupplied northern region.
• Q1 2016 result was impressive with better than expected
cement sales volume of 20.3% YoY and HT1’s efforts to
expand the market share in FY16, with the company
projecting sales volume growth of 31.6%.
• FX impact on HT1’s P/L will decline while HT1 will pay
down its EUR debts over the next five years. Current EUR
weakness favourable for HT1.
• Valuation still attractive: target FY16 PER of 15.1x on an
EPS forecast of VND2,413. Implied EV/EBITDA of 7.3x vs.
11.0x of regional peers.
STOCK INFO
Rating BUY
Price 29,200
Target, VND/share 36,300
Total Return incl.Div 24.3%
Market Cap, USD mn 371
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 0.1
Foreign Room, USD mn 39
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Revenue growth 12.6% 25.3% 15.3%
PBT growth 140.1% 12.1% 22.2%
NPAT less MI growth 142.3% 15.4% 22.2%
EPS growth 138.6% 15.4% 22.2%
PER @ market price 14.0x 12.1x 9.9x
PBR @ market price 2.1x 1.7x 1.7x
ROE 18.1% 17.2% 19.0%
Dividend Yld @ market price
D/E
0.0%
1.3
0.0%
0.9
0.0%
0.8
(*) Earnings per share figures have been adjusted for non-dilutive
share capital expansion events such as share dividends and rights
issues, where applicable.
55. 55
Power sector: Bet on hydro recovery and gas
thermal capacity expansion
JULY 2016 VCSC RESEARCH
56. Power – revised PDP calls for a tripling of gas thermal capacity by 2030
56
• Vietnam’s electricity consumption per capita is one fifth of the average in Asia Pacific; the price of electricity is 50% lower
than other Asia Pacific countries.
• Revised PDP VII was approved in April 2016, which reduces the sector’s total targeted capacity by 12% mainly due to coal
and nuclear thermal capacity reduction; capacity for gas & solar power raised by 10% as the government prioritizes clean
energy.
• Under new power plan, gas thermal capacity is expected to nearly triple by 2030.
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2030 Old 2030 New
Hydro Coal Gas Wind Solar Others Nuclear
MW
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2015A 2030 New
Hydro Coal Gas Wind Solar Others Nuclear
Fig: Power generation mix revised Fig: Capacity outlook
Source: MOIT, EVN & VCSC
MW
57. Power – Severe drought in H1 exacerbated already tight supply conditions
57
• H1 recap: Robust demand: Nation’s five-month consumption grew 12.3%; Consumption in the South was up 13.3% YoY
driven largely by industrial production.Tight supply: Not many new plants; hydro contribution fell due to drought.
• Robust CGM price in the South, CGM price in the North was weak in the first half.
• Government targets no retail electricity price increase in 2016.
• Long term outlook: demand is still robust at 10%-12% p.a and expected to surpass supply growth of less than 10% in the
next two years.
• Expected serious power shortage in the South with slow progress of Long Phu and Song Hau coal thermal plants.
• Wholesale competitive generation market is currently in pilot mode and is expected to officially operate from 2019 onward.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Fig: Vietnam’s electricity consumption
Bn kWh
Source: EVN & VCSC
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1Q15 1Q16
Hydro Coal Gas Oil Import Others
Fig: Q1 2016’s generation mix
Source: EVN & VCSC
58. Power – Increasing possibility that La Nina will lead to a strong hydro recovery
58
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
MJJ
2016
JJA
2016
JAS
2016
ASO
2016
SON
2016
OND
2016
NDJ
2016
DJF
2017
JFM
2017
5.4%
7.3% 7.3%
10.5%
16.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Capacity (MW) Capacity growth (%)
Fig: La Nina probabilityFig: Vietnam’s electricity capacity outlook
Source: International Research institute for Climate & SocietySource: EVN & VCSC
STRATEGY
• Choose good and undervalued hydro stocks like SJD, VSH, SHP now that drought has ended and La Nina is a real
possibility.
• We like well-run thermal plants that still benefit from the South’s electricity shortage despite La Nina, are undervalued and
have concrete capacity expansion plans – e.g. NT2, which aims to double capacity by 2021.
• Consider participating in IPO of Genco 3, PV Power.
• Consider consulting and construction companies like TV2, VNE which will benefit from huge project pipeline.
RISK
• Forex translation loss on foreign currency – denominated loans (JPY, USD).
• Further changes in gas input mechanism and a sustained rise in oil prices could pose a threat to gas thermal players.
59. Power – Weak hydro performance has been a major drag on the sector
59
Fig: Power stock vs VN-Index
Source: Bloomberg
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
VNINDEX Power
Ticker Rating
Market
Cap
US$mn
Foreign
Avail in
US$mn
Target
price
VND /
share
Current
Price
VND/sh
Upside
%
Div yield
@
current
price
FY15 EPS
growth %
FY16 EPS
growth %
FY17 EPS
growth %
FY16 MR QTR
P/E P/B
(x) (x)
NT2 O-PF 417.8 121.1 39,900 34,700 15.0% 7.5% 57.0% 5.1% -13.1% 7.5 1.9
PPC O-PF 258.0 92.1 15,600 14,400 8.3% 9.7% 59.7% -7.8% -8.4% 9.7 0.8
60. Non-rated picks: Some hydropower stocks are looking attractive
60
Ticker Short Name
Market Cap
(USD mn)
Div yield (%) ROE (%) P/B (x) TTM P/E (x)
30 Day trading val
(USD'000)
VSH
VINH SON – SONG
HINH
138 7.1 8.3 1.1 13.2 8,614
CHP
CENTRAL
HYDROPOW
115 7.8 20.5 1.6 8.2 7,963
SHP
SOUTHERN
HYDROPOW
84 7.5 9.9 1.6 16.0 3,521
TMP
THAC MO
HYDROPOW
82 9.6 13.6 1.7 12.5 459
TBC
THAC BA
HYDROPOW
68 7.6 12.0 1.7 13.7 604
SJD CAN DON HYDRO PO
57 9.1 15.6 1.2 7.8 7,405
KHP KHANH HOA POWER
18 10.0 15.6 0.7 4.5 4,826
SBA SONG BA JSC
26 10.3 6.5 0.9 13.3 2,053
• SJD: solid yield, lowest P/E.
• VSH: Upper Kon Tum is well on track to be completed by end 2018; Q3 is lowest
season of VSH, suggesting that this might be a good entry point.
• SHP: Key catalyst to watch is output of Da M’bri plant.
61. Other stock ideas: Jump on the IPO band wagon or invest in E&C providers.
61
Genco 3 IPO:
• One of three generating arms of EVN, capacity of
nearly 8,000 MW (20% of Vietnam power sector’s
installed capacity).
• Targeting to IPO in August 2016.
• Will equitize 49% stake.
• Possible share capital: USD1 billion.
• Enterprise value determination was completed, is
waiting for Prime Minister to approve equitization
plan.
• Will benefit from the operation of Wholesale
Competitive Generation Market.
PV Power IPO:
• Power arm of PetroVietnam Group.
• Targeting to IPO in October 2016.
• Will equitize 49% stake.
• Current share capital: ~ USD1 billion
• Enterprise value determination is work-in-progress.
• PV Power is in talks with Tohoku (Japan), SK,
Kospo (Korea) and Tan Power.
• Will benefit from the operation of Wholesale
Competitive Generation Market.
• TV2 (Power Engineering Consulting JSC 2- PECC2): Will benefit from the tripling of Vietnam power
sector capacity in the next 15 years as PECC1234 has 85% market share in planning & grouting and pre-
feasibility study phase.
• VNE (Vietnam Electricity Construction JSC) & SJE (Song Da 11 JSC): Transmission line constructors
which will benefit from demand for transmission lines and transformer expansion worth USD10 billion in
the next five years. VNE has 35%-40% market share and competes with Power Construction JSC No 1,
2, 4.
• L10 (Lilama 10) & LM8 (Lilama 18): Power plant construction companies which will benefit from the
capacity expansion of coal (quadruple) & gas (triple) thermal plant capacity expansion.
62. NT2 – Visibility on second plant and possibility of a third plant raise valuation
62
COMPANY OVERVIEW
• Nhon Trach 2 is one of the newest and most modern gas
thermal plant in the South of Vietnam, providing an
average 4.5 billion kWh of electricity every year and
accounting for 4.5% of national power supply.
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Good asset. The most modern gas-fired power in Viet
Nam. Highest efficiency ratio. Low investment capital of
USD0.9 million/MW.
• Ideal PPA contract. 10 – Year PPA contract locked for
80%-90% volume with 100% pass-through of the biggest
input cost to EVN (gas cost). Gas feedstock is guaranteed
under a 25-year contract .
• With the application of floor price NT2 is still competitive
vs coal thermal plant, good Q2 result with core NPAT
growth of 19% YoY.
• License application for Nhon Trach 3 is on track to be
approved late this year and will be a major share price
catalyst.
• The operation of Wholesale Competitive Market and Nhon
Trach 4 possibility are other solid long-term drivers.
RISKS
• Economic slowdown and weather. 5% change in sales
volume will result in a 14% change in TP.
• Forex translation loss risk with EUR and USD-
denominated loans but they are paying down their debt.
STOCK INFO
Rating BUY
Price @ June 30, 2016 34,700
Target, VND/share 39,900
Total Return incl.Div 22.5%
Market Cap, USD mn 417.6
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 0.8
Foreign Room, USD mn 120.4
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Revenue growth -4.7% -3.0% -1.3%
PBT growth -24.5% 6.1% -4.8%
NPAT less MI growth (adj) 57.0% 5.1% -13.1%
EPS growth (adj) 57.0% 5.1% -13.1%
Gross D/E 1.2 0.9 0.7
PER @ market price 7.8x 7.4x 8.6x
PBR @ market price 1.9x 1.7x 1.5x
ROE 25.3% 24.1% 19.1%
Dividend Yld @ market price 6.3% 7.5% 6.3%
(*) NPAT and EPS figures have been adjusted for forex
translation loss/gain.
63. 63
Oil & gas: Bet on predictable catalysts rather than oil prices
JULY 2016 VCSC RESEARCH
64. Oil & Gas – Low oil prices heavily dented exploration and production activity in H1
64
• In H1 2016, PetroVietnam’s (PVN) crude oil production declined 6.1% to 7.9 million tons as low oil prices
fell below Vietnam’s average production cost; however, natural gas production climbed 5.9% to 5.7bcm.
• Exploration & development activity (except deep-water) ground to a halt, resulting in idle rigs, and
headcount/salary cuts.
• Crude production should recover partially in H2 2016 due to the recent recovery in prices and a push by
the government.
Source: MOIT, VCSC estimates
Fig: Vietnam oil & gas production
0
4
8
12
16
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1H16 2016F
Low
case
2016F
Base
case
2016F
High
case
Crude oil (m tons) Natural gas (bcm)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Myanmar
Brunei
Thailand
Malaysia
Australia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Brent oil price
(USD/bbl) - RHS
Source: Bloomberg
Fig: Historical SEA rig count vs oil price
65. Oil & Gas – Block B and Blue Whale projects will proceed, nonetheless
65
• PVN announced the resumption of Block B project in April 2016. The field development plan was
completed and is waiting for the Government’s approval; this project is a strategic priority to meet
Vietnam’s gas needs and so is unlikely to be impacted by any fresh weakness in oil and gas prices.
• Blue Whale received a push during Obama’s recent visit to Vietnam; the project is awaiting gas price
finalization and overall development plan, and PVN and Exxon Mobil are targeting first gas from 2021.
• Refineries: Nghi Son refinery (capacity 10 million tons, 1.5x of Dung Quat refinery) is 80% completed and
expected to commence production in Q2 2017. Gazprom Neft backed-off from a planned 49% stake
acquisition in Dung Quat; PTT Thailand and Saudi Aramco postponed a USD22 billion refinery project.
Source: VCSC’s research, “undiscovered” indicated probable by not
proven reserves.
Fig: Vietnam reserves status by basin as of FY14 (MM
scm oil equivalent)
Figure: Existing gas pipeline (red line) and Block B’s gas
pipeline (Blue dotted line)
Source: PVN & VCSC
Block B
Blue Whale
66. Oil & Gas – Consensus still calls for a price recovery but uncertainty abounds
66
• Vietnam’s oil & gas operators are waiting for oil prices to rise to USD60/bbl-USD65/bbl to kick off
development of new fields and, potentially, discovery activities too.
• Based on the consensus of expert estimates, our base case assumption for oil prices is USD45/bbl for 2016
with an increase of USD10/bbl each year to flatten out at USD65/bbl in 2018.
• Resolution of coinciding and temporary supply disruptions (eg. Nigerian terrorist attacks, Canadian wildfires)
and renewed uncertainty following Brexit create headwinds to continued oil price recovery.
Fig: Brent oil price forecasts
Source: GS, Bloomberg, EIA, Moody’s. Reuters,
VCSC
45
55
65 65 65
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Average of experts' forecasts
VCSC's oil price base case
35
47 46
50 52 55
58 59
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16F
4Q16F
1Q17F
2Q17F
3Q17F
4Q17F
2016 2017
Bloomberg consensus on oil prices
(USD/bbl)
Fig: Quarterly Brent oil price forecasts
Source: Bloomberg
Fig: Goldman forecasts oil deficit from
Q2 2016
Source: Goldman Sachs
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
Oil surplus (Mil bbl/day)
67. Oil & Gas – We recommend betting on predictable catalysts rather than oil prices
67
STRATEGY
• If you are an oil price bull and have a high degree of confidence in a continued recovery, bet on PVD,
whose business – and share price – is highly sensitive to oil prices; however, PVD’s valuation now looks
stretched given the recent rally, with risks to the downside. Average oil prices for 2016 would have to
come in at around 60USD per barrel for PVD to be re-rated a BUY.
• A less risky strategy, in our view, is to ride more predictable catalysts such as the Block B and Blue Whale
projects which are now almost certain to go ahead and will benefit oil field service providers.
• If you are betting on a more tepid oil price recovery, we recommend PVS: it is likely to be the first
beneficiary of contract awards from Block B (expected in 2016 or 2017) and is somewhat shielded from oil
price volatility given its large M&C order backlog and the long-term nature of its FPSO/FSO contracts;
valuation also looks compelling.
Source: VCSC’s forecast,
(*) subject to change in our upcoming update report **we model a USD10/bbl increase in oil prices for each year through to 2018, starting from our
2016 oil price assumption under each scenario
2016** Oil price (USD/bbl) 35 45 55
PVS M-PF O-PF BUY
DPM O-PF O-PF O-PF
PLC* O-PF O-PF M-PF
GAS* U-PF M-PF O-PF
PVD SELL U-PF O-PF
69. Non-rated stock ideas
69
• Beneficiaries of Block B: PVC, PXS and PVB. Contract values equivalent to two, two and
three years of revenue, respectively.
• Robust demand for gas from industrial parks: PGD, CNG, PVG, PGS.
• Beneficiaries of Nghi Son refinery completion: PVT (the monopoly in transportation of crude
oil & oil products, coal transport for Vung Ang thermal plant).
Ticker Short Name
Market Cap
(USD mn)
Div yield
(%)
Net D/E (x) ROE (%) P/E (x) P/B (x)
PVC DRILLING MUD JSC 33.0 8.2 1.5 16.3 11.4 0.7
PXS PETROLEUM EQUIPM 33.6 10.2 45.2 14.7 6.6 0.9
PVB
PETROVIETNAM
COAT
19.6 9.9 (2.7) 25.0 9.0 0.9
PGD
PETROVIET LOW
PRESSURE GAS
184.0 2.8 0.2 19.0 30.1 3.3
CNG CNG VIETNAM JSC 47.3 7.7 (35.9) 35.1 9.2 2.8
PGS
SOUTHERN GAS
TRANSPORT
37.9 18.3 (22.4) 20.4 3.5 0.8
PVG PV GAS NORTH JSC 9.7 7.7 78.0 11.4 9.4 0.5
PVT PETROVIET TRANSP 148.0 2.8 18.4 5.6 8.8 0.9
Source: Bloomberg
70. 70
COMPANY OVERVIEW
• Leading provider of non-drilling technical services, from
upstream to downstream, including seismic survey,
Mechanical & Construction (M&C), Operation &
Maintenance (O&M), Offshore Support Vessel (OSV),
supply base and Floating Oil Storage (FSO/FPSO).
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Less impacted by oil prices than PVD; resilient FPSO/FSO
segment with stable day rates due to 10-year contract
despite risk of marginal declines in Lam Son FPSO day
rate.
• Big Mechanical & Construction order backlog of USD1.1
billion which could even double with Block B contract
awards.
• Oil price-sensitive segment -- Seismic Survey – has
signaled improvement with new contract wins and is
expected to narrow its losses in 2016.
• Trading at a 1YF PER 9.3x and a big discount to book
value; we see upside due to: (1) improving business
prospects on the back of the oil price recovery (2)
uncaptured potential upside from Block B project and (3)
an attractive dividend yield of 5.5%.
STOCK INFO
Rating O-PF
Price@ June 30, 2016 18,200
Target 19,900
Total Return incl. Div 14.8%
Market Cap, USD mn 357
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 1.0
Foreign Room, USD mn 84
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Revenue growth -26.3% -20.0% -1.3%
PBT growth -20.8% -34.0% 6.0%
NPAT less MI growth -23.2% -34.4% 6.0%
EPS growth % normalized -23.2% -34.4% 6.0%
D/E (gross) 21.9% 19.6% 17.0%
PER @ market price 6.1 9.3 8.8
PBR @ market price 0.8 0.8 0.7
ROE 13.3% 8.2% 8.3%
Dividend Yld @ market price 6.6% 5.5% 5.5%
PVS – A safer bet and likely beneficiary of Block B project progress
(*) EPS growth normalized is calculated based on EPS
normalized (less extraordinary items and less contribution
to employee bonus and welfare fund per Circular 200).
71. 71
COMPANY OVERVIEW
• Leading urea producer with 48% market share and trader
of other fertilizers (NPK, SA, DAP).
INVESTMENT THESIS
• 2016 has been tough so far due to urea selling price
declines despite the continued benefit from oil-linked input
price mechanism.
• Potential application of a floor price on input gas is not a
major risk as it will not kick in before 2017 and will only be
marginally above our base case oil price assumption for
that year
• Potential recovery in urea prices, end of drought and
continued local supply disruptions from Ninh Binh should
ease local oversupply and lift prices.
• New NH3-NPK plant diversifies DPM’s product porfolio
and will hedge against future urea price swings.
• We think the risk of urea price slides and application of a
floor price on input gas are now already priced-in as DPM
is trading at a TTM PER of 8.3x, a compelling 40%
discount to peers.
• Stellar dividend yield of 10.8% and high ROE of 17.0%.
STOCK INFO
Rating O-PF
Price@ June 30, 2016 27,700
Target 30,200
Total Return incl. Div 19.8%
Market Cap, USD mn 482
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 0.5
Foreign Room, USD mn 119
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Revenue growth 2.3% -7.5% 11.2%
PBT growth 45.3% -12.1% -1.3%
NPAT less MI growth 34.6% -11.7% -1.3%
EPS growth % normalized 30.1% -14.3% -1.3%
D/E (gross) 2.8% 16.6% 30.1%
PER @ market price 8.3 9.7 9.8
PBR @ market price 1.3 1.3 1.2
ROE 17.0% 15.2% 14.6%
Dividend Yld @ market price 14.3% 10.8% 10.8%
DPM – Long-term prospects intact despite current urea price weakness
(*) EPS growth is calculated based on EPS normalized
(less extraordinary items and less contribution to employee
bonus and welfare fund per Circular 200).
73. Logistics - Hai Phong port zone growth slowed despite strong nationwide growth
73
• Port operations: In Q1 2016, Vietnam’s total cargo throughput volume surged by 28% YoY to reach 112,382 tons, with
container cargo-handling volume touching 28,957 tons, up 16% YoY.
• Transportation: cargo transportation volume rose by 7% YoY in Q1 2016. Rail transport fell sharply by 21% while air
transport and road transport volumes saw robust growth of 13% and 8%, respectively.
• Despite strong system-wide port cargo throughput growth, Hai Phong port zone saw flat throughput volumes as the Tet
holiday spilled over into February, which is normally the busiest time for port operations in the region in Q1.
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Q12015 Q12016
Thousands tons
+8%
+5%
+2%
-21% +13%
+7%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Q12015 Q12016
Vietnam's total throughput
Vietnam' s container throughput
Source: GSO Source: GSO
+28%
+11%
Vietnam transportation volume in Q1 2016 Vietnam total port cargo throughput in Q1 2016
Thousands tons
74. Logistics – We expect a strong H2 across all sub-segments
74
• Hai Phong portzone is expected to achieve 12%-13% growth in cargo throughput in H2 2016 on the back of rising trade and
new capacity coming on stream. All key players in the region such as GMD, VSC and PHP have capacity expansion
projects which are currently under construction and coming online between Q2 and Q3.
• Aircargo transport is expected to sustain double digit growth through 2016, given surging trade of electronics, machinery
and devices, which grew by 10% YoY in Q1; the continued ramp up of Samsung’s first factory and ongoing construction of
its second factory should provide a boost.
• Warehousing business will continue to stay strong in H2 2016 in the face of strengthening retail sales growth and increasing
FDI disbursements into the manufacturing sector.
Source: GSO, VCSC forecasts
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Million TEUs
Forecasted 12%
CAGR
Forecasted cargo throughput of Hai Phong port zone
75. Logistics – Capacity expansion to be a key earnings catalyst
75
STRATEGY
• Choose port and warehouse operators with new capacity expansion projects coming on stream in H2
2016, such as GMD, VSC and TMS.
• Choose port operators located in the downstream part of Cam area in Hai Phong (GMD, VSC ), which is
far away from Bach Dang bridge.
• Pick diversified and fully-integrated logistics players that will benefit broadly from the growth of the
economy, FDI and trade (eg. GMD).
RISKS
• China’s economic slowdown poses some risks to border trade between Vietnam and China, thereby
indirectly impacting Hai Phong port zone, through which container cargo is exported into China.
• The continued slowdown in global trade or any slowdown in FDI inflows into Vietnam might impact exports
although this is partly mitigated by Vietnam’s growing export market share.
76. Logistics – Strong cargo volumes and TPP anticipation have boosted stocks
76
Ticker Rating
Market
Cap
USD
mn
Foreign
Avail in
USD mn
Target
price
VND /
share
Current
Price
VND/sh
Upside
%
Div yield
@
current
price
FY15
EPS
growth
%
FY16
EPS
growth %
FY17
EPS
growth
%
FY16 MR QTR
P/E P/B
(x) (x)
GMD BUY 213 0.0 31,000 26,900 15.2% 5.7% 741.0% 14.4% 20.9% 10.2 1.0
Fig: Logistics sector vs VN Index
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Logistic sector VN index
77. GMD – 2016 to be another fruitful year with NHDV port capacity expansion
77
COMPANY OVERVIEW
• In the 25 years since its establishment, GMD has grown
steadily to become one of the biggest domestic logistics
service providers in Vietnam and one of the few local
players that has capabilities across the logistics value
chain and a range of different logistics assets, such as
ports, distribution centres, depots and ICDs.
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Port operations reached full capacity by the end of Q1
2016, but NHDV capacity expansion in Q2 to be a major
growth catalyst for the year.
• The commencement of a slew of DCs has created
synergies across the logistics value chain of GMD,
benefiting trucking, barging and 3PL segments.
• SCSC air cargo terminal is the fastest growing air cargo
terminal in Vietnam.
• The cooperation with MPC can be a milestone in GMD’s
guest for logistics market leadership and an entry into the
high-potential cold-chain niche.
RISKS
• Potential FX losses on USD-denominated debt if there is
VND depreciation against the USD.
• Dilution risk from VIG convertible bonds might not be fully
priced-in by the market (already factored in our TP though)
• Continued investment in the rubber plantation business.
STOCK INFO
Rating BUY
Price @ June 30 26,900
Target, VND/share 31,000
Total Return incl.Div 20.9%
Market Cap, USD mn 213.0
Daily Val 30 day, USD mn 0.3
Foreign Room, USD mn 0.0
KEY METRICS 2015A 2016F 2017F
Revenue growth 19.0% 11.0% 13.0%
PBT growth -28.7% 36.8% 4.6%
NPAT less MI growth (adj) 741.0% 14.4% 20.9%
EPS growth (adj) 741.0% 14.4% 20.9%
PER @ market price 11.8x 10.2x 9.7x
PBR @ market price 1.0x 0.9x 0.9x
D/E 0.38 0.34 0.30
ROE 9.3% 12.0% 11.9%
Dividend Yld @ market price 5.7% 5.7% 5.7%
(*) NPAT and EPS growth figures have been adjusted for
forex translation loss/gain, stock dividends and non-
recurring items such as gains on disposal; EPS numbers
above are calculated assuming full conversion of VIG loan
80. Appendix: Disclaimer
80
Analyst Certification of Independence
I, Barry Weisblatt, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various
factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and
Investment Banking.
VCSC and its officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities mentioned in this document (or in any
related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities (or investment).VCSC may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of
securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or
investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment.
Copyright 2013 Viet Capital Securities Company “VCSC”. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared on the basis of information believed to be reliable at the time of publication. VCSC makes no
representation or warranty regarding the completeness and accuracy of such information. Opinions, estimates and projection expressed in this report represent the current views of the author at the date of
publication only. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of VCSC and are subject to change without notice. This report is provided, for information purposes only, to institutional investors and retail clients of
VCSC in Vietnam and overseas in accordance to relevant laws and regulations explicit to the country where this report is distributed, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities
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materials, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein, and any representation to the contrary is an offence. Dubai: This report has been issued to persons regarded as
professional clients as defined under the DFSA rules. United States: This research report prepared by VCSC is distributed in the United States to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Decker&Co, LLC, a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility
for the distribution of this report by Decker&Co, LLC in the US shall be borne by Decker&Co, LLC. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the
US. This report is not directed at you if VCSC Broker or Decker&Co, LLC is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself
before reading it that Decker&Co, LLC and VCSC is permitted to provide research material concerning investment to you under relevant legislation and regulations.
81. Appendix: VCSC Contacts
81
RESEARCH INSTITUTIONAL SALES
Head of Research Head of Institutional Sales
Barry Weisblatt Michel Tosto, M. Sc.
barry.weisblatt@vcsc.com.vn michel.tosto@vcsc.com.vn
(84) 3914 3588 ext. 105 (84) 3914 3588 ext. 102
Senior Manager Head of Vietnam Sales
Anirban Lahiri Dung Nguyen
anirban.lahiri@vcsc.com.vn dung.nguyen@vcsc.com.vn
(84) 3914 3588 ext. 130 (84) 3914 3588 ext. 136
Senior Manager Manager - Industry Relations
Long Ngo Quynh Cao
long.ngo@vcsc.com.vn quynh.cao@vcsc.com.vn
(84) 3914 3588 ext. 145 (84) 3914 3588 ext. 148