The document discusses how inflation targeting by central banks in the early 2000s contributed to the development of a housing bubble and its bursting in the 2008 financial crisis. Specifically, it argues that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates too low for too long from 2002 to 2004, failing to adjust for rising inflation, which accelerated excessive borrowing and housing investment. This loose monetary policy helped inflate the bubble, which then burst abruptly in 2007-2008 when the Fed tightened rates sharply in response to high inflation. The bursting of the bubble was exacerbated by the high debt levels, as increased borrowing costs strained household budgets and collapsed consumption.
Inflation targeting misfiring on development of housing market bubbleLondonMet PGR Students
1) Keeping interest rates too low from 2002-2004 despite rising inflation contributed to the growth of the housing market bubble as it encouraged excessive borrowing.
2) Then sharply raising rates from 2004-2006 may have triggered the bursting of the housing bubble in 2007.
3) The combination of higher rates and high debt levels had a devastating effect as borrowers could no longer afford their mortgage payments, leading to a collapse in demand, falling GDP, and bankruptcies.
This document discusses the effects of inflation targeting and low interest rates on the development and bursting of the 2008 housing market bubble and credit crisis. It argues that keeping interest rates too low for too long from 2002 to 2004 accelerated housing activity and the sale of mortgages, fueling the growth of a housing bubble. When interest rates were then raised sharply from 2004 to 2006, this likely triggered the bursting of the bubble, as high household debt levels caused disposable incomes to decline sharply. The rapid spread of the subprime mortgage crisis then led to a global financial crisis.
The document discusses the shape of the global economic recovery and associated risks. It finds that while growth rebounded in 2010, the recovery is not sustainable and a downturn is expected in 2011. Europe faces significant risks from debt problems and austerity measures. The US recovery depends on weak consumer demand as households pay down debt. China also faces recession risks from a slowing property market and investment.
The document provides an overview and analysis of prevailing market conditions as of late 2009. It discusses signs of continued economic recovery, remaining risks from withdrawing stimulus, and new global economic patterns emerging from the financial crisis. Opportunities are seen in identifying companies and industries that will benefit from these changes. Charts show improved economic indicators, earnings beating estimates, and valuations looking more attractive as earnings recover.
The document discusses the public debt crisis in the United States. It notes that there have been five major debt crises since 1790 where federal debt sharply increased. The Great Recession caused the second largest debt spike and it is unique in that primary deficits have persisted for over 6 years after the recession and are expected to continue through 2026. The document also argues against the view that more debt is desirable, noting empirical evidence that fiscal multipliers are negative at high debt levels and debt sustainability becomes an issue. It analyzes factors like demand for U.S. debt from globalization and risk of domestic default.
The document discusses the sluggish economic recovery in the US despite massive monetary expansion by the Federal Reserve. It provides the following key points:
1) Most of the money from quantitative easing programs has remained as excess reserves held by banks at the Federal Reserve rather than flowing into the real economy or increasing bank lending.
2) Money supply has grown but credit growth and velocity of money remain low, restraining economic growth.
3) Investment remains subdued due increased uncertainty from issues like the ongoing Eurozone crisis.
4) Infrastructure investment is proposed as an alternative driver of growth and employment given the lagging housing sector recovery.
Jonathan Rodden - Representation and Redistribution in Federations: Lessons f...ADEMU_Project
Professor Jonathan Rodden, Stanford University, describes how he has applied his on work on numerous federations in the United States and extracted lessons and principles that could be theoretically applied to the European Monetary Union.
Inflation targeting misfiring on development of housing market bubbleLondonMet PGR Students
1) Keeping interest rates too low from 2002-2004 despite rising inflation contributed to the growth of the housing market bubble as it encouraged excessive borrowing.
2) Then sharply raising rates from 2004-2006 may have triggered the bursting of the housing bubble in 2007.
3) The combination of higher rates and high debt levels had a devastating effect as borrowers could no longer afford their mortgage payments, leading to a collapse in demand, falling GDP, and bankruptcies.
This document discusses the effects of inflation targeting and low interest rates on the development and bursting of the 2008 housing market bubble and credit crisis. It argues that keeping interest rates too low for too long from 2002 to 2004 accelerated housing activity and the sale of mortgages, fueling the growth of a housing bubble. When interest rates were then raised sharply from 2004 to 2006, this likely triggered the bursting of the bubble, as high household debt levels caused disposable incomes to decline sharply. The rapid spread of the subprime mortgage crisis then led to a global financial crisis.
The document discusses the shape of the global economic recovery and associated risks. It finds that while growth rebounded in 2010, the recovery is not sustainable and a downturn is expected in 2011. Europe faces significant risks from debt problems and austerity measures. The US recovery depends on weak consumer demand as households pay down debt. China also faces recession risks from a slowing property market and investment.
The document provides an overview and analysis of prevailing market conditions as of late 2009. It discusses signs of continued economic recovery, remaining risks from withdrawing stimulus, and new global economic patterns emerging from the financial crisis. Opportunities are seen in identifying companies and industries that will benefit from these changes. Charts show improved economic indicators, earnings beating estimates, and valuations looking more attractive as earnings recover.
The document discusses the public debt crisis in the United States. It notes that there have been five major debt crises since 1790 where federal debt sharply increased. The Great Recession caused the second largest debt spike and it is unique in that primary deficits have persisted for over 6 years after the recession and are expected to continue through 2026. The document also argues against the view that more debt is desirable, noting empirical evidence that fiscal multipliers are negative at high debt levels and debt sustainability becomes an issue. It analyzes factors like demand for U.S. debt from globalization and risk of domestic default.
The document discusses the sluggish economic recovery in the US despite massive monetary expansion by the Federal Reserve. It provides the following key points:
1) Most of the money from quantitative easing programs has remained as excess reserves held by banks at the Federal Reserve rather than flowing into the real economy or increasing bank lending.
2) Money supply has grown but credit growth and velocity of money remain low, restraining economic growth.
3) Investment remains subdued due increased uncertainty from issues like the ongoing Eurozone crisis.
4) Infrastructure investment is proposed as an alternative driver of growth and employment given the lagging housing sector recovery.
Jonathan Rodden - Representation and Redistribution in Federations: Lessons f...ADEMU_Project
Professor Jonathan Rodden, Stanford University, describes how he has applied his on work on numerous federations in the United States and extracted lessons and principles that could be theoretically applied to the European Monetary Union.
2009. Jürgen Pfister. The global and European environment for CEE economies. ...Forum Velden
- The presentation discusses the impact of the global financial crisis on Central and Eastern European economies.
- CEE economies experienced a dramatic fall in foreign direct investment inflows and a reversal of private capital flows as a result of the crisis.
- Recovery from the recession will be slow, with an outright upswing not expected until 2011 due to weaknesses in the banking sector and rising unemployment in Europe.
- Medium-term growth prospects for CEE economies remain positive as the process of economic convergence with Western Europe continues, but growth will be dampened in the short-term by slow growth among EU trading partners.
State of the Construction and Surety Industry Report (2009)Lisa Dehner
This document provides an overview of the state of the U.S. economy, construction industry, and surety industry. It finds that the current recession began in December 2007 and is the longest since the Great Depression. Both the construction industry and stock market typically follow trends in GDP. While the private construction sector has declined, public construction is forecast to grow due to a $131 billion stimulus package. Contractor profits are decreasing and surety losses are expected to rise in the coming years as economic conditions remain challenging.
This document provides an overview of classical theories of inflation and the quantity theory of money. It defines key concepts like money, inflation, the money supply, and velocity. The quantity theory of money posits that inflation is primarily caused by increases in the money supply that outpace economic growth. It predicts a direct relationship between money growth and inflation. The document uses graphs and international data to show this relationship generally holds in practice and discusses implications for interest rates.
Policymakers debate whether monetary and fiscal policy should be active or passive in response to economic fluctuations, and whether policy should be set by rule or at the discretion of officials. Arguments for active policy include reducing economic hardship during recessions, while critics argue policies have long and variable lags. Policy rules aim to increase credibility and reduce time inconsistency problems, like central banks targeting an inflation rate or following the Taylor rule. The optimal approach remains an open debate among economists.
To
help senior executives weather this economic storm, the Economist Intelligence Unit has updated its
answers to some of the questions most frequently asked by clients, following the publication of the
four previous editions of Global crisis monitor. In answering each question, we outline our current
forecast, explain our thinking, and highlight any key risks or alternative scenarios.
This document summarizes the key findings from an analysis of past deleveraging cycles in the US economy in the mid-1970s and early 1990s. Some of the main points include:
- Past deleveraging cycles were actually good periods for stock market performance and saw leadership from consumer discretionary and technology stocks.
- Deleveraging is a lagging phenomenon that typically occurs late in an economic slowdown.
- Housing activity, as measured by building permits, tended to bottom out early in past deleveraging cycles and then rise steadily through the cycle.
- Inflation tended to decline during deleveraging periods, suggesting disinflation may lie ahead.
- Mon
Present study questions the role of monetary policy in general and inflation targeting in particular with the help of important issues related to it and concludes that it is high time for a change. An irony of the inflation targeting is that price stability has amazingly been achieved in Canada simultaneously with an over-leveraged financial system and an over-exposed economy to the debt and assets. And also, the low policy rate regime under the framework has not been able to stop the investment from decline and the real economy from stagnation.
A currency crisis occurs when there is a sudden devaluation of a country's currency. This can be caused by chronic trade deficits, market speculation about a government's ability to back its currency, or a loss of confidence in the currency. A currency crisis often results in a speculative attack where investors rapidly sell the currency. This can force a country to abandon its exchange rate peg. Examples of major currency crises include the Mexican peso crisis in the 1990s and the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. The Argentine peso crisis in the early 2000s was caused by a fixed exchange rate that hurt exports and rising debt levels that led to sovereign default.
This presentation discusses leading indicators of currency crises. It defines currency crises and reviews different models that attempt to explain them. It then identifies several leading indicators of impending currency crises, including deterioration in the capital account, weakening current account balances, and economic growth slowdowns. The presentation forecasts that Vietnam, Argentina, and Ukraine are countries likely to experience currency crises based on problems like high inflation, overvalued currencies, declining reserves, and slowing economies in each nation.
The document provides an overview and analysis of China's economic developments in the first half of 2009. It discusses three main points:
1) While China's economy has continued to feel the effects of the global crisis, very expansionary fiscal and monetary policies have supported growth. Government investment has soared while market investment has lagged. Consumption has held up well.
2) Exports remain very weak but imports have recovered as stimulus has boosted demand for raw materials. GDP growth was a respectable 6% in the first quarter.
3) Downward pressure on inflation has continued as falling raw material prices drag down prices, but overcapacity is squeezing industry profits. Growth is projected to remain around 7%
This commentary investigates how the targeted inflation rate has been achieved successfully amidst stagnant economic growth, declining domestic manufacturing, boiling asset economy, and piling financial vulnerabilities in the developed economies. It re-examines the modus operandi of the inflation targeting as an integral part of the management of the macroeconomy in these economies.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | April 2020 | Ernest Hemingway, Albert Camus, an...Mercer Capital
This document summarizes an article analyzing potential credit risk issues for banks due to the COVID-19 pandemic and economic downturn. It begins by noting that while current asset quality metrics don't yet show issues, bank stock prices have fallen due to expected problems. The article then discusses using the 2008 financial crisis as a reference, noting loan growth was more balanced this time. Historical loss rates are compared to today. Areas of potential concern include commercial and industrial loans and commercial real estate loans to hard-hit industries like hotels and retail. The impacts on rural vs. metropolitan banks are also considered. Rating agency data on at-risk loan categories is presented.
The document summarizes the outlook for markets in 2009. It believes the recession will persist through 2009 with a weak recovery. Government stimulus plans aim to boost spending but the effects may be delayed. The Federal Reserve has increased money supply but must remove excess cash to avoid inflation. Consumers are saving more due to debt and falling asset values, which may slow growth but support bond prices. Global trade and capital flows are also slowing. The outlook calls for a challenging year with opportunities in quality companies and bonds offering higher yields. Flexibility will be needed to respond to changing opportunities and risks.
RESEARCH - The Fairfax Monitor - Edition 2Stephen Martin
The document discusses whether the current economic environment is more likely to lead to inflation or deflation. It analyzes factors influencing the debate such as declining asset prices, falling consumer demand, and aggressive monetary stimulus by central banks. While central banks have taken inflationary actions, the document concludes deflation remains the greater threat due to continued weakness in the banking system, low consumer spending, and lack of signs of rising inflation. The environment favors bonds over stocks and commodities in the near term until the banking system shows more stability.
B416 The Evolution Of Global Economies Lecture 10 Recent Global Economic Cris...Pearson College London
This document summarizes a lecture on the global economic crisis that began in 2008. It discusses the origins and impacts of the crisis in different parts of the world. It also analyzes responses by governments and how their actions affected the crisis over time, particularly in Europe. Additionally, it provides an overview of financial crises generally, including definitions of currency crises, models of what causes them, the costs of crises, and the typical sequencing of currency and banking crises.
The stagnant u.s. economy and the imbalances of savings and incomesFederico Dominguez
This document provides an analysis of the 2008 financial crisis. It discusses how financial deregulation in the late 1990s/early 2000s allowed large financial institutions to combine commercial and investment banking, which increased risk. Easy monetary policy and high commodity prices fueled a housing bubble from 2001-2005. Complex financial instruments like securitization and credit default swaps spread risk throughout the system but also enabled speculation. The crisis erupted in 2008 when the housing bubble burst, exposing overleveraged financial institutions and precipitating a broader economic crisis.
IMF Regional Economic Outlook for the Caucasus and Central AsiaCRRC-Armenia
The document summarizes the International Monetary Fund's November 2009 regional economic outlook report for the Caucasus and Central Asia region. It finds that while the global economy is beginning to recover from the crisis, recovery in the CCA region will be modest, with growth expected to pick up in 2010 following a downturn in 2009. The crisis hit the region's energy importing countries hard through sharp drops in remittances and exports. Macroeconomic policies across the region were made more accommodative to counter the crisis impacts. Financial sectors remain stressed with rising non-performing loans. Poverty levels may rise in energy importers due to factors like lower incomes and employment. Sustained fiscal stimulus and financial sector stabilization will be important for recovery
This document analyzes the relationship between tax composition and long-run economic growth using a dataset of 69 countries from 1970-2009. It finds that increasing income taxes while reducing consumption and property taxes is associated with slower growth. Specifically, social security contributions and personal income taxes have a stronger negative effect on growth than corporate income taxes. Conversely, shifting taxes from income to property taxes or increasing VAT/sales taxes instead of income taxes is positively associated with growth. When dividing the sample by income level, high and middle-income countries show similar results to the full sample, but results are less robust for low-income countries possibly due to weaker tax administration.
The document provides a quarterly market review for Q2 2013. It summarizes performance of various asset classes including US and international stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. US stocks led gains while emerging markets strongly underperformed, driven by losses in May and June. The review also includes a timeline of major events in the quarter and introduces the topic of the next quarter.
This document summarizes a study that assessed dietary intake and body composition among first generation Ghanaian migrants living in London. The study recruited 212 Ghanaian migrants living in London through four black majority churches. It collected dietary and anthropometric data and found high rates of overweight and obesity. Focus groups revealed that Ghanaian migrants wanted smaller body sizes for health reasons. The study aims to develop a nutrition education program through churches to promote weight loss and healthy behaviors.
The document discusses a study that compared cardiovascular risk factors between three ethnic groups in the Netherlands: white Dutch, Creole Surinamese, and Hindustani Surinamese. The study found higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease in the Creole and Hindustani groups compared to white Dutch. Metabolic syndrome fully explained ethnic differences in cardiovascular disease for Creoles, but only partly explained differences for Hindustani. The study also found alarmingly high rates of undiagnosed diabetes in Hindustani ages 35-44 and less adequate blood pressure control in hypertensive Creoles.
2009. Jürgen Pfister. The global and European environment for CEE economies. ...Forum Velden
- The presentation discusses the impact of the global financial crisis on Central and Eastern European economies.
- CEE economies experienced a dramatic fall in foreign direct investment inflows and a reversal of private capital flows as a result of the crisis.
- Recovery from the recession will be slow, with an outright upswing not expected until 2011 due to weaknesses in the banking sector and rising unemployment in Europe.
- Medium-term growth prospects for CEE economies remain positive as the process of economic convergence with Western Europe continues, but growth will be dampened in the short-term by slow growth among EU trading partners.
State of the Construction and Surety Industry Report (2009)Lisa Dehner
This document provides an overview of the state of the U.S. economy, construction industry, and surety industry. It finds that the current recession began in December 2007 and is the longest since the Great Depression. Both the construction industry and stock market typically follow trends in GDP. While the private construction sector has declined, public construction is forecast to grow due to a $131 billion stimulus package. Contractor profits are decreasing and surety losses are expected to rise in the coming years as economic conditions remain challenging.
This document provides an overview of classical theories of inflation and the quantity theory of money. It defines key concepts like money, inflation, the money supply, and velocity. The quantity theory of money posits that inflation is primarily caused by increases in the money supply that outpace economic growth. It predicts a direct relationship between money growth and inflation. The document uses graphs and international data to show this relationship generally holds in practice and discusses implications for interest rates.
Policymakers debate whether monetary and fiscal policy should be active or passive in response to economic fluctuations, and whether policy should be set by rule or at the discretion of officials. Arguments for active policy include reducing economic hardship during recessions, while critics argue policies have long and variable lags. Policy rules aim to increase credibility and reduce time inconsistency problems, like central banks targeting an inflation rate or following the Taylor rule. The optimal approach remains an open debate among economists.
To
help senior executives weather this economic storm, the Economist Intelligence Unit has updated its
answers to some of the questions most frequently asked by clients, following the publication of the
four previous editions of Global crisis monitor. In answering each question, we outline our current
forecast, explain our thinking, and highlight any key risks or alternative scenarios.
This document summarizes the key findings from an analysis of past deleveraging cycles in the US economy in the mid-1970s and early 1990s. Some of the main points include:
- Past deleveraging cycles were actually good periods for stock market performance and saw leadership from consumer discretionary and technology stocks.
- Deleveraging is a lagging phenomenon that typically occurs late in an economic slowdown.
- Housing activity, as measured by building permits, tended to bottom out early in past deleveraging cycles and then rise steadily through the cycle.
- Inflation tended to decline during deleveraging periods, suggesting disinflation may lie ahead.
- Mon
Present study questions the role of monetary policy in general and inflation targeting in particular with the help of important issues related to it and concludes that it is high time for a change. An irony of the inflation targeting is that price stability has amazingly been achieved in Canada simultaneously with an over-leveraged financial system and an over-exposed economy to the debt and assets. And also, the low policy rate regime under the framework has not been able to stop the investment from decline and the real economy from stagnation.
A currency crisis occurs when there is a sudden devaluation of a country's currency. This can be caused by chronic trade deficits, market speculation about a government's ability to back its currency, or a loss of confidence in the currency. A currency crisis often results in a speculative attack where investors rapidly sell the currency. This can force a country to abandon its exchange rate peg. Examples of major currency crises include the Mexican peso crisis in the 1990s and the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. The Argentine peso crisis in the early 2000s was caused by a fixed exchange rate that hurt exports and rising debt levels that led to sovereign default.
This presentation discusses leading indicators of currency crises. It defines currency crises and reviews different models that attempt to explain them. It then identifies several leading indicators of impending currency crises, including deterioration in the capital account, weakening current account balances, and economic growth slowdowns. The presentation forecasts that Vietnam, Argentina, and Ukraine are countries likely to experience currency crises based on problems like high inflation, overvalued currencies, declining reserves, and slowing economies in each nation.
The document provides an overview and analysis of China's economic developments in the first half of 2009. It discusses three main points:
1) While China's economy has continued to feel the effects of the global crisis, very expansionary fiscal and monetary policies have supported growth. Government investment has soared while market investment has lagged. Consumption has held up well.
2) Exports remain very weak but imports have recovered as stimulus has boosted demand for raw materials. GDP growth was a respectable 6% in the first quarter.
3) Downward pressure on inflation has continued as falling raw material prices drag down prices, but overcapacity is squeezing industry profits. Growth is projected to remain around 7%
This commentary investigates how the targeted inflation rate has been achieved successfully amidst stagnant economic growth, declining domestic manufacturing, boiling asset economy, and piling financial vulnerabilities in the developed economies. It re-examines the modus operandi of the inflation targeting as an integral part of the management of the macroeconomy in these economies.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | April 2020 | Ernest Hemingway, Albert Camus, an...Mercer Capital
This document summarizes an article analyzing potential credit risk issues for banks due to the COVID-19 pandemic and economic downturn. It begins by noting that while current asset quality metrics don't yet show issues, bank stock prices have fallen due to expected problems. The article then discusses using the 2008 financial crisis as a reference, noting loan growth was more balanced this time. Historical loss rates are compared to today. Areas of potential concern include commercial and industrial loans and commercial real estate loans to hard-hit industries like hotels and retail. The impacts on rural vs. metropolitan banks are also considered. Rating agency data on at-risk loan categories is presented.
The document summarizes the outlook for markets in 2009. It believes the recession will persist through 2009 with a weak recovery. Government stimulus plans aim to boost spending but the effects may be delayed. The Federal Reserve has increased money supply but must remove excess cash to avoid inflation. Consumers are saving more due to debt and falling asset values, which may slow growth but support bond prices. Global trade and capital flows are also slowing. The outlook calls for a challenging year with opportunities in quality companies and bonds offering higher yields. Flexibility will be needed to respond to changing opportunities and risks.
RESEARCH - The Fairfax Monitor - Edition 2Stephen Martin
The document discusses whether the current economic environment is more likely to lead to inflation or deflation. It analyzes factors influencing the debate such as declining asset prices, falling consumer demand, and aggressive monetary stimulus by central banks. While central banks have taken inflationary actions, the document concludes deflation remains the greater threat due to continued weakness in the banking system, low consumer spending, and lack of signs of rising inflation. The environment favors bonds over stocks and commodities in the near term until the banking system shows more stability.
B416 The Evolution Of Global Economies Lecture 10 Recent Global Economic Cris...Pearson College London
This document summarizes a lecture on the global economic crisis that began in 2008. It discusses the origins and impacts of the crisis in different parts of the world. It also analyzes responses by governments and how their actions affected the crisis over time, particularly in Europe. Additionally, it provides an overview of financial crises generally, including definitions of currency crises, models of what causes them, the costs of crises, and the typical sequencing of currency and banking crises.
The stagnant u.s. economy and the imbalances of savings and incomesFederico Dominguez
This document provides an analysis of the 2008 financial crisis. It discusses how financial deregulation in the late 1990s/early 2000s allowed large financial institutions to combine commercial and investment banking, which increased risk. Easy monetary policy and high commodity prices fueled a housing bubble from 2001-2005. Complex financial instruments like securitization and credit default swaps spread risk throughout the system but also enabled speculation. The crisis erupted in 2008 when the housing bubble burst, exposing overleveraged financial institutions and precipitating a broader economic crisis.
IMF Regional Economic Outlook for the Caucasus and Central AsiaCRRC-Armenia
The document summarizes the International Monetary Fund's November 2009 regional economic outlook report for the Caucasus and Central Asia region. It finds that while the global economy is beginning to recover from the crisis, recovery in the CCA region will be modest, with growth expected to pick up in 2010 following a downturn in 2009. The crisis hit the region's energy importing countries hard through sharp drops in remittances and exports. Macroeconomic policies across the region were made more accommodative to counter the crisis impacts. Financial sectors remain stressed with rising non-performing loans. Poverty levels may rise in energy importers due to factors like lower incomes and employment. Sustained fiscal stimulus and financial sector stabilization will be important for recovery
This document analyzes the relationship between tax composition and long-run economic growth using a dataset of 69 countries from 1970-2009. It finds that increasing income taxes while reducing consumption and property taxes is associated with slower growth. Specifically, social security contributions and personal income taxes have a stronger negative effect on growth than corporate income taxes. Conversely, shifting taxes from income to property taxes or increasing VAT/sales taxes instead of income taxes is positively associated with growth. When dividing the sample by income level, high and middle-income countries show similar results to the full sample, but results are less robust for low-income countries possibly due to weaker tax administration.
The document provides a quarterly market review for Q2 2013. It summarizes performance of various asset classes including US and international stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. US stocks led gains while emerging markets strongly underperformed, driven by losses in May and June. The review also includes a timeline of major events in the quarter and introduces the topic of the next quarter.
This document summarizes a study that assessed dietary intake and body composition among first generation Ghanaian migrants living in London. The study recruited 212 Ghanaian migrants living in London through four black majority churches. It collected dietary and anthropometric data and found high rates of overweight and obesity. Focus groups revealed that Ghanaian migrants wanted smaller body sizes for health reasons. The study aims to develop a nutrition education program through churches to promote weight loss and healthy behaviors.
The document discusses a study that compared cardiovascular risk factors between three ethnic groups in the Netherlands: white Dutch, Creole Surinamese, and Hindustani Surinamese. The study found higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease in the Creole and Hindustani groups compared to white Dutch. Metabolic syndrome fully explained ethnic differences in cardiovascular disease for Creoles, but only partly explained differences for Hindustani. The study also found alarmingly high rates of undiagnosed diabetes in Hindustani ages 35-44 and less adequate blood pressure control in hypertensive Creoles.
Perceived Discrimination and Cardiovascular Risk FactorsMichael John
This study examined the relationship between perceived ethnic discrimination and cardiovascular risk factors in a multi-ethnic sample of 360 adults and university students. The researchers found that lifetime experiences of racism were positively associated with smoking, but not with binge drinking or BMI. Specifically, logistic regression revealed that experiences of lifetime discrimination significantly increased the likelihood of current smoking. However, lifetime discrimination was not significantly related to binge drinking in logistic regression and was unrelated to BMI in multiple regression. Latino individuals were over 11 times more likely to smoke and over 2 times more likely to binge drink compared to white/other individuals.
This document provides information on risk factors and lifestyle modifications for cardiovascular disease. It discusses major risk factors like smoking, obesity, diabetes, and lack of physical activity. It recommends getting regular exercise, eating a heart-healthy diet, managing stress, and avoiding smoking. The document also provides exercise guidelines, including warming up, stretching, and cooling down. It discusses monitoring exercise intensity using ratings of perceived exertion and target heart rate zones. Contraindications to exercise and signs to stop exercising are also summarized.
geographyalltheway.com - IB Geography - Food and Health - Prevention or Trea...Richard Allaway
Coronary heart disease is a major cause of death in the UK. Risk factors include high BMI, diabetes, smoking, poor diet, lack of exercise, stress, and family history. The British Heart Foundation is a charity focused on preventing heart disease through research, education, and support for patients. Prevention efforts target reducing obesity and smoking rates through public health initiatives and lifestyle changes.
Workshop 3: The Agriculture Nutrition Nexus and the Way Forward at The Caribbean-Pacific Agri-Food Forum 2015 (CPAF2015) taking place 2-6 November in Barbados with support from the Intra-ACP Agricultural Policy programme, organized in partnership with the Barbados Agricultural Society (BAS) and the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA). http://www.cta.int/en/news/caribbean-pacific-agri-food-forum.html
Black American women have higher rates of many risk factors for heart disease, including obesity, physical inactivity, metabolic syndrome, diabetes, and hypertension than white women
This presentation focuses on the unique healthcare issues that African Americans face. The presentation further explains steps that American Americans can take towards healthier lives.
Charting the Financial Crisis: A Narrative eBookShavondaBrandon
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
The 2008 economic crisis began with a housing price bubble that peaked in 2006 and collapsed by 2008. As housing prices declined, mortgage defaults and foreclosure rates increased sharply. This destabilized major financial institutions and led to a stock market crash. The crisis was exacerbated by years of lax lending standards, low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, and rising household debt levels that left many vulnerable when housing prices declined. The crisis resulted in the deepest recession since the Great Depression.
The Great Recession document summarizes the causes and effects of the late-2000s financial crisis and recession in the United States. It discusses how a housing bubble fueled by subprime lending burst, triggering a credit crunch and widespread economic impacts. The recession resulted in job losses, rising unemployment, and high foreclosure rates. Government responses included stimulus packages under Presidents Bush and Obama, as well as financial bailouts. The recovery was predicted to be slow due to persistent effects of financial crises on economic growth.
The document contains several articles discussing economic and financial market risks and opportunities. The first section highlights Standard & Poor's downgrading of the UK banking system due to economic weakness, reputational damage to banks, and high dependence on government support. The second section focuses on opportunities in emerging markets such as Brazil, where fundamentals remain positive and growth is expected to be strong. It also notes pension funds pouring funds into emerging market debt and the potential for relatively higher growth in developing economies going forward.
The document discusses the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and its aftermath, known as the Great Recession. It covers the prelude of the housing bubble in the U.S., how the crisis spread from the housing sector to the broader economy, the underlying causes such as inequality and deregulation of the banking sector. It also discusses the fiscal and monetary policy responses, reforms to regulate the financial sector, and ideas to prevent future crises.
The Financial Situation in the World by Wouter van der StokFelix Meißner
The Financial Situation in the World” by Wouter van der Stok
Mr. Van der Stok will present a brief history of the present global Economic/Financial Crisis, an analysis of future developments of this Crisis over the next 3 to10 years and how this will affect, without any exception, "me" as a person, family, business, city, nation and groups of nations
HERE YOU FIND THE RECORDING:
http://tinyurl.com/5vcl5hd
Financial Fragility Applied to the Real Estate Sector: The Case of Bogota Bet...pkconference
This document analyzes the housing bubble in Bogota, Colombia between 2003-2012 from a Post Keynesian perspective. It finds that both external and internal financial fragility fueled the bubble. Externally, terms of trade gains benefited foreign firms, leading to current account deficits and capital inflows that appreciated the currency and crowded out exports. Internally, private sector debt grew as credit expanded elastically and fiscal policy aimed for a zero deficit, encouraging speculation in real estate. The bubble indicates underlying macroeconomic instability rather than rational market fundamentals, as the mainstream views.
As the global financial crisis entered its most dramatic phase, in the second half of 2008, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), many governments and several distinguished scholars advocated expansionary fiscal olicy as the second most effective tool (after monetary stimulus) to fight deep recession and deflation. Now, more than a year later, the previous excitement surrounding the supposed power of fiscal stimulus largely disappeared and instead has been replaced by ising concerns over the sustainability of public finances in many countries. Unfortunately, the previous enthusiasts of the active counter‐cyclical fiscal policy have not always realized the causality between the two.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2009
- The document analyzes global economic growth trends and forecasts from 2008-2017. It summarizes The World Bank's forecast of moderate global GDP growth rising to 3.0% in 2015 and averaging 3.3% through 2017.
- The strategist argues The World Bank is overly optimistic given factors like China's economic slowdown and the end of the commodity super cycle. Slow global growth is expected to continue in the near future.
- Key themes discussed include diverging economic policies driving US dollar strength and deflation, China's transition from manufacturing to services, and tailwinds for short-term US growth amid a challenging global environment.
This document discusses the 2008 financial crisis and its impact on the UK. It begins by defining a financial crisis and explaining the housing bubble and subprime lending practices in the US that triggered the crisis. It then discusses the effects in the UK, including falling retail sales, rising unemployment, and GDP declining by 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008, officially pushing the country into recession. The document also outlines some measures taken by the UK government to stimulate the economy through recapitalizing banks, loan guarantees, and an asset protection scheme.
The document discusses the outlook for fixed income investments following the 2008 financial crisis. It notes that government bonds performed well in 2008 due to falling interest rates and a flight to quality. However, government bonds are now expensive. There is a risk of deflation in 2009 as domestic demand falls and commodity prices decline. Central banks will need stimulus to avoid deflation. After the recession, policymakers will try to boost demand to spur inflation and prevent liquidity traps. The document recommends hedging against reflation by investing in inflation-linked bonds and bonds of countries with higher yields within the eurozone.
Introduction
The latest financial crisis between 2007 and 2012, was the worst of the 20th and the 21st century after the great depression of 1930’s according to economists.
The recent financial crisis was mainly felt in2007 and 2008 and with the other four years following being tasked with living in the shadow of the crisis and trying to recover from it.
It not only hit the U.S.A but it was a global crisis which affected Europe leading to the Euro crisis in 2008 and also threatened a reoccurrence of the Asian 1997 crisis.
The financial crisis affected the economy at large and was largely blamed on the cheap housing policies enacted encouraging homeownership, lax lending habits among others.
The financial crisis of 2007 started with the collapse of the Northern Rock British bank in August 2007. The tax lending rates of mortgages that followed the 2004 70% increase in homeownership led to lenders in early 2007 to file for bankruptcy as the home prices had fallen so low in between 2005 and 2007 leading to homeowners falling back on their mortgages and the lenders would not get the full value of the house due to the decline in market prices.
The federal funds rate which was 4.75% in 2007 was reduced to 1% in order to cushion the crisis in 2008. this led to different policies being enacted in order to salvage the economy which was spiraling down the drain. Policies such as: The Dodd and Frank act of 2010
Economic Stimulus Act of 2008
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
The unemployment insurance policy
2
THE DODD AND FRANK ACT OF 2010Effects TargetedShort-run effectsIt was meant to safeguard against excessive risk investment: this was in respect to Wall-Streets behavior of investors investing in risky projects.
The short-run effects are mainly felt by the consumer and short-term investors. This is through;
Wall-Streets accountability
Regulatory system in mortgages and lending servicesEnsure Wall-Street was accountable; Wall-Street was being bailed out by the government due to its failures.Protect families form exploitative financial activities
Consumer protection
People in Wall-Street took huge risk endangering the economy. And due to the governments failure of checks on balances in Wall-Street this went on for some time before it led to the depression and the financial crisis. It was then left upon the federal government to bail it out. This act proposes a transfer of liability from the government back to Wall-Street and accountable measures put in place.
The short-run effects have helped in the accountability of Wall-Street, this will lead to short-term investors being more aware of their role in Wall-Street and what they shouldn’t do.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was created in ensuring that consumer interests are taken into account and that individuals out to take loans and mortgages are not buried in paper work that would be confusing for some one who is not an educ.
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic policies and concepts including:
1) It discusses the business cycle and macroeconomic equilibrium and how disturbances can cause instability.
2) Keynes argued that government intervention is necessary to address inherent instability in free markets. Fiscal and monetary policies can be used to stimulate aggregate demand.
3) Supply-side policies aim to shift aggregate supply curves by incentivizing production. Both demand and supply factors influence macroeconomic outcomes like growth, unemployment and inflation.
- Growth in 2022 will moderate from 2021 levels as central banks and governments begin removing stimulus measures, but the economic recovery is still expected to continue with firm demand.
- Household balance sheets have significantly improved, increasing savings and wealth, which will support continued strong consumer spending. Government infrastructure spending plans will also support growth.
- Supply challenges are a greater concern than demand, as supply chains remain disrupted and key production hubs like China maintain COVID restrictions, which could keep inflation elevated for longer.
- Tight labor markets may also put upward pressure on wages, supporting consumer spending but challenging the view that inflation will remain low. Central banks are expected to withdraw stimulus gradually and are unlikely to aggressively raise rates in 2022
The document discusses various causes and effects of inflation, including demand-pull inflation which occurs when there is excess demand for goods and services, and cost-push inflation which is caused by external supply shocks that shift the short-run aggregate supply curve inward. It also examines the costs of inflation such as a loss of purchasing power and potential for a wage-price spiral, as well as the consequences like disruption to business planning and potential unemployment. The relationship between inflation, economic growth, and inflation expectations is explored.
- Monetary financing or "helicopter money" involves central banks directly increasing money supply by crediting funds to government or individual accounts, bypassing traditional monetary policy tools. It is seen as a potential next step for central banks struggling with low growth and inflation.
- The document provides a checklist for considering helicopter money, examining factors like economic conditions, central bank credibility and independence, balance sheet constraints, and risks of losing control over inflation.
- While helicopter money could boost nominal growth and inflation, current economic data does not warrant it for major economies. More importantly, the approach risks undermining central bank credibility and ability to manage inflation expectations.
- The document discusses the potential economic impact of President-elect Donald Trump's proposed fiscal plans, including tax cuts and increased spending.
- It finds that tax cuts would provide a larger short-term boost to growth than increased spending, but that spending measures have higher fiscal multipliers. Tax cuts are also more likely to push up Treasury yields and pose risks for bond investors.
- The size and permanence of the tax cuts will determine their impact, with temporary cuts having lower multipliers than permanent ones. Spending is generally more efficient at boosting growth.
- Trump's tax cut proposals are larger than Republican plans but may be less effective at boosting growth due to focusing more on high-income
The document discusses the causes and effects of the global financial crisis that began in 2007. It describes how the crisis originated from risky subprime mortgages in the US that were packaged into securities and spread throughout the global financial system. When housing prices declined and borrowers defaulted, it triggered a financial crisis that caused stock market declines, limited investment banking, and severe recessions around the world. Governments responded with stimulus packages, interest rate cuts, and bank bailouts to stabilize markets and economies. Reforms are still needed to prevent future crises through improved financial regulations and oversight.
The Financial Crisis in Pictures: Antecedents of the CrisisAmy Kundrat
The US economy was weakening in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, as productivity and labor force growth slowed, reducing potential GDP growth. Income inequality was rising to high levels not seen since the 1920s. Household debt levels, particularly mortgage debt, rose sharply as a share of income. Meanwhile, the financial system became increasingly fragile as risk migrated outside of regulated banks and the use of short-term funding like repo agreements tripled. Regulatory capital requirements were inadequate and did not account for the growing risks in the system. These factors created instability in the economy and financial system that contributed to the conditions for the 2008 crisis.
1) The document analyzes historical data from 14 advanced economies over 140 years to identify trends leading up to financial crises. It finds that periods of high credit growth and leverage often precede crises and result in long, slow recoveries, especially when combined with high public debt.
2) Five facts are presented: advanced economies have experienced more frequent crises since the 1970s as financial sectors grew rapidly independent of the real economy; crises are deflationary and depress economic growth; unprecedented leverage in the banking sector now compared to the past; emerging markets insure against currency crises while developed markets benefit; and demographic changes may undermine long-term liquidity.
3) Five lessons recommend macroprud
This document provides background information on a study exploring the experiences of Sierra Leonean students studying in London universities. It includes a brief history of Sierra Leone, its education system, and statistics on international students in the UK. The aims of the study are to understand how students' personal lives allow them to experience public life in Sierra Leone, the UK, and university. The methodology will involve life histories, diaries, interviews, and a focus group to understand students' educational paths and the meanings they attach to their experiences. Potential themes that may emerge include adaptations, transitions, concepts of teaching, war trauma, social and cultural capital, and turning points. Ethical considerations for conducting insider research are also discussed.
This document summarizes the development and validation of a new field-based tool for measuring body proportionality among children. It was created by Jabeen Shah for a postgraduate research conference. The tool aims to provide a lightweight, portable, and inexpensive alternative to current laboratory measures of sitting height and leg length ratios, which are markers of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease risk. Initial results found the adapted measure to have high validity and reliability compared to standard measures, with a low coefficient of variation, suggesting it is suitable for use in field studies.
This document discusses the theory and practice of mixed-use property development in urban policy. It begins by exploring definitions of mixed-use and how separating land uses became common in the 20th century. Examples are given of vertical mixed-use like Dubai's Burj Tower and horizontal mixed-use developments. The document then examines the challenges planners face in implementing mixed-use and achieving goals like social integration. A case study of a London neighborhood in transition shows mixed-use there did not necessarily promote social mixing. The document concludes that mixed-use policy has contradictory outcomes and has been more rhetoric than rigorous analysis, raising questions about place, space and rights to the city.
This document summarizes a research study on understanding the relationship between being NEET (not in education, employment, or training) and homelessness among young people. The study aims to examine coping strategies used by NEET-homeless youth and how cultural values influence their attitudes. It hypothesizes that some youth are "playing dependency" by using their NEET or homeless status to navigate difficult transitions. The methodology involves interviews with 60 young people in different categories and analyzing the data for patterns. The literature review so far has explored concepts of youth, transitions, and theoretical frameworks relevant to NEETness and homelessness. The research is still ongoing.
This poster summarizes early research from a PhD project mapping the journeys of women fleeing domestic violence in the UK. The research analyzes a database showing over 18,000 women and children moved significant distances within the UK to access services. Maps show journeys to one refuge, with women traveling varying distances in all directions. Interviews will explore the practical and emotional implications of these journeys from place to place for women fleeing domestic violence. The research aims to better understand this internal migration and its meaning in relation to concepts like forced migration and women's agency.
HRM practices in multinational companies operating in Nigeria were examined from the perspective of non-managerial employees through a pilot study involving interviews with employees from four randomly selected oil companies. The study aimed to determine whether HRM practices in these companies were converging with global standards, diverging due to local factors, or exhibiting a cross-vergence of both. Local factors like nepotism, bribery, corruption, and political influences were found to impact recruitment, selection, training, development, promotion, reward, and dismissal practices in ways that differed from standard global HRM models.
An adversary can launch a denial-of-service attack against a wireless access point by sending a large number of spoofed probe request frames. This overwhelms the access point's resources. The document proposes and tests several approaches to identify spoofed frames, such as monitoring sequence numbers, using physical layer attributes to identify devices, and pattern recognition of transaction data, to prevent the access point from responding to rogue requests. The research aims to develop an effective authentication model for IEEE 802.11 wireless networks to prevent probe request denial-of-service attacks.
HRM practices in Nigeria were examined from the perspective of non-managerial employees through a pilot study of four multinational oil companies. The study used qualitative interviews and snowball sampling to understand how practices around selection, recruitment, training, development, promotion, reward, and dismissal were being implemented. The results of the pilot study suggested local factors like nepotism, bribery, corruption, and political impacts influence HRM in Nigeria and may be causing HRM practices to diverge from standard models or cross-verge between convergence and divergence.
This project aims to develop pharmacological agents that block T-type calcium channels (Cav3.2) for therapeutic applications. Rabbits were immunized with a peptide from the extracellular loop between transmembrane segments 3 and 4 of Cav3.2. Antibodies from rabbit serum showed immunoreactivity against the peptide. These antibodies will be tested for their ability to bind and block Cav3.2 channels expressed in HEK293 cells using techniques like western blotting and patch clamping. Successful blocking antibodies may aid in understanding Cav3.2 function and developing drugs targeting voltage-gated calcium channels.
Basel II aims to strengthen financial stability in emerging markets like Pakistan by establishing risk management standards for banks. However, implementing Basel II by 2010 poses challenges for Pakistan's economy and individual banks. The document analyzes Basel II's role and limitations in Pakistan through a questionnaire given to risk managers, to understand challenges in implementing the framework and determine if it truly leads to greater financial stability.
This PhD study examines the interface between mega-event led urban regeneration and sustainable development through comparative analysis of a successful Olympics regeneration project and a similar scale project triggered by an unsuccessful mega-event bid. The literature review focuses on understanding the mega-event phenomenon. Mega-events are difficult to define but can be classified by factors like rationale, economics, and location. Impact studies group mega-events into categories like economic, tourism, socio-cultural, and spatial. The review aims to clarify which events constitute mega-events and what impact studies have been done in order to determine gaps in understanding regeneration and community engagement impacts.
This document outlines a presentation on examining the structure of Vietnam's banking system from 1986 to 2009. It includes the following key points:
- The objectives are to examine the development of Vietnam's banking system and investigate the literature on bank structure in Vietnam.
- The methodology uses concentration ratios and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to evaluate bank structure, and a structure model to examine the relationship between profitability and other factors.
- The results show concentration in the banking sector has decreased over time based on the concentration ratios and HHI. The structure model finds that capital ratios positively impact profitability while bank size and branch networks have mixed effects.
This document describes research on an Agent-based Adaptive Join Algorithm (AJoin) for distributed data warehousing. AJoin uses software agents to decompose join tasks and dynamically optimize and coordinate join processing. It extends ripple join and semi-join techniques across multiple agents. The algorithm is evaluated against traditional approaches in different network environments. Results show AJoin performs better in distributed and dynamic networks by adapting join methods in real-time based on runtime feedback.
The document summarizes a study that compares the forecasting performance of ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and naive models for the US dollar/Bangladeshi taka foreign exchange rate. It finds that an ARIMA (0,1,1) model with a constant term produced the most accurate one-step-ahead forecasts, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.031%. Exponential smoothing produced the second most accurate forecasts with a MAPE of 1.054%. The naive model produced the least accurate forecasts with a MAPE of 6.1571%. The study contributes to research on comparing time series forecasting models but notes that future work could focus on combining multiple models to potentially improve forecast
This document outlines Janet Bowstead's PhD research project which will map and analyze the relocation journeys of women experiencing domestic violence in England. It will interview women about their experiences of relocation and resettlement. The research also explores conceptualizing women's journeys using tools from other disciplines like Foucault's concepts of surveillance and panopticism, Deleuze and Guattari's idea of rhizomatic lines of flight, and Augé's notion of non-places. These concepts provide insights into understanding women's strategies for fleeing abuse by overcoming spatial constraints, escaping along unpredictable routes, and how refuges can counteract tendencies to be unlocated non-places.
This document summarizes a presentation about developing a Green Map System (GMS) as a tool for sustainable urban planning. The presentation discusses:
1) What GMS is - a global movement that creates locally-made maps highlighting natural and cultural resources using shared iconography.
2) The design brief - to create an eco-friendly Malaysia Green Map reducing climate impact through cartography and icon design engaging diverse groups.
3) Research questions on design choices/updates, developing new universal icons through co-design, selecting map locations and inclusion criteria, and investigating icon effectiveness.
4) The project aims to increase environmental awareness and preservation of green spaces through the map.
This study examined changes in lower limb biomechanics following a functional fatigue program in 10 recreational athletes. Biomechanics at initial contact and peak stance phase of landing were analyzed before and after fatigue. The results showed that fatigue induced risk factors for ACL injury like decreased knee and hip flexion and increased knee valgus. Specifically, fatigue decreased hip flexion for males and knee flexion for both genders, while increasing knee valgus. This highlights the role of fatigue in inducing risky landing positions and suggests prevention programs need to incorporate fatigue to better replicate real-world conditions.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial ReportsEasyReports
Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
The Rise of Generative AI in Finance: Reshaping the Industry with Synthetic DataChampak Jhagmag
In this presentation, we will explore the rise of generative AI in finance and its potential to reshape the industry. We will discuss how generative AI can be used to develop new products, combat fraud, and revolutionize risk management. Finally, we will address some of the ethical considerations and challenges associated with this powerful technology.
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
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Introducing BONKMILLON - The Most Bonkers Meme Coin Yet
Let's be real for a second – the world of meme coins can feel like a bit of a circus at times. Every other day, there's a new token promising to take you "to the moon" or offering some groundbreaking utility that'll change the game forever. But how many of them actually deliver on that hype?
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
1. Effects of inflation targeting misfiring on
development of housing market bubble
and its bursting in 2008 credit crisis
Author: George Perendia, LMBS
e-mail: george@perendia.orangehome.co.uk
2. Background:
The so called "years of
great moderation", the
years of relatively stable
and low inflation since
early 1980,
a period of reduction in
government spending and
period of the new inflation
targeting mechanism
providing
stable and
– low inflation (2%) and
– low interest rates,
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Inflation and interest rates: FED, Inerbank and Prime Loan
5
10
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GC_PC_DFLT
Government spending per capita (deflated)
3. Background:
They were all but that!
in the long term, low
interest rates were a
green light for many:
– the consumers,
– the households,
– the investors, and
– the governments,
to start borrowing
excessively with
expectation of ever
low repay interest
rates!
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4. Background:
The more the households
borrowed,
the more they would consume
creating higher demand, and,
the resulting higher GDP output
enabled governments to borrow
and spend even more.
The low inflation was supported
by import of cheaper goods from
developing countries, and
the trade deficit was balanced
by government debt being sold
to the same, mainly exporting
countries of East Asia
whose foreign reserves
rocketed since 2002.
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5. Crisis at The Gate:
Many authors, in particular from
IMF background, argue that
increase in public debt
reduces prospects of growth
mainly due to the pattern of
resulting under-investment
caused by the investor
expectation of higher:
– long-term interest rates,
– future taxation,
– inflation and
– economic volatility
see e.g. Kumar M.S. and Woo, J
2010: Public Debt and Growth1,
IMF Working Paper, July 2010.
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6. Crisis at The Gate: As few authors show, in some
cases increased debt may be
beneficial for growth.
Traum and Yang (2009) show
that if increased government
debt was used to
– reduce capital gains taxes or
– for business investment,
then further investment can be
attracted (I.e. crowded-in)
instead of being discouraged
(and crowded-out),
leading to increase of GDP
see: Nora Traum And Shu-Chun S.
Yang (2009): Does Government
Debt Crowd Out Investment? A
Bayesian Dsge Approach;
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7. Crisis and the Bubble Burst: Inflation mis-targeting
in spite of the rising inflation in
2003 and 2004,
the federal funds target rate
was lowered even further from
2002 to 2004 (left) and
the resulting, “real” fed. funds
target rate (lower left), i.e. the
rfft – π (inflation) was actually
around 2.5% below 0 in Q1 of
2004!
then it rose, from Q2 of 2004,
to nearly +3.5% by Q4 of 2006
and
stayed rather high throughout
2007.
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8. Crisis and the Bubble Burst: Inflation mis-targeting
Few authors showed that
lowering of federal funds target
rate from
– 6.5% in 2000 to a
– mere 1% by mid 2003
may have accelerated both
– the industrial and
– the private housing investment
and the sale of both:
– the prime and
– the sub-prime mortgages
see e.g.: Dokko, J., Doyle, B., Kiley, M.
T., Kim, J., Sherlund, S., Sim, J., and
Van den Heuvel, S.: Monetary Policy
and the Housing Bubble,; Finance and
Economics Discussion Series Divisions
of Research & Statistics and Monetary
Affairs Federal Reserve Board,
Washington, D.C. 2009
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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
INV_REAL_EST_LNS_PERGDP
9. Crisis and the Bubble Burst: Inflation mis-targeting
Whilst US Fed (and Mr B.
Bernanke) reject that FED
facilitated the housing bubble
in contrast, J.B.Taylor (2007)
indicated that such “too loose”
monetary policy during 2003-
2004 period probably lead to
the extensive housing activity.
See: Taylor, John B. (2007).
Housing and Monetary Policy,
NBER Working Paper Series
13682.Cambridge, Mass.: National
Bureau of Economic Research,
December 2007.
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10. Crisis and the Bubble Burst: Inflation mis-targeting
Gordon (2009) also points to
many similarities between
1927-29 and the 2003-06
bubbles, from
– highly leveraged (90%), low
interest loans for stock and
housing purposes
respectively, to
– the regulatory failures caused
by repeal of Glass-Steagall
Act.
see: Gordon,R. J. (2009). Is
Modern Macro or 1978 Era Macro
More Relevant to the
Understanding of the Current
Economic Crisis? Northwestern
University, September12, 2009
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11. Crisis and the Bubble Burst: Inflation mis-targeting
They however note:
…“It is widely acknowledged
that the Fed maintained short
term interest rates too low for
too long in 2003 04, in the
sense that any set of
parameters on a Taylor Rule
type function responding to
inflation and the output gap
predicts substantially higher
short term interest rates during
this period than actually
occurred… thus indirectly the
Fed’s interest rate policies
contributed to the housing
bubble”
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13. Crisis and the Bubble Burst:
Mishkin (2007) and Jonas and
Mishkin (2005) state that net
(core) inflation model is
frequently
– more volatile and
– it leads to targets being missed
more than would have been
case with the headline inflation.
See:
– Mishkin, F: Monetary Policy
Strategy, MIT Press, 2007
– Jonas and Mishkin (2005)
Inflation targeting in Transition
Economies, in Bernanke, B. and
Woodford, M. Inflation targeting
debate, NBER 2005
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14. Crisis and the Bubble Burst:
Quite few articles show how
contagion of sub-prime MBS
(mortgage based securities)
collapse spread beyond the
borders of US.
e.g.:
Steven B. Kamin and Laurie
Pounder DeMarco(2010): How Did
a Domestic Housing Slump Turn
into a Global Financial Crisis?;
Federal Reserve System
International Finance Discussion
Papers 2010.
Brender A and Pisani, F.(2010),
CEPS, Brussels.
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15. Why the Bubble Burst: Similarly to the 1929 Great
Depression crisis,
a sudden and sharp monetary
tightening
with target rate rising 6% in
period form 2004-2006
most likely triggered the 2007
bubble burst too.
See:
Bernanke, Ben S. (1983), Non-
Monetary Effects of the Financial
Crisis in the Propagation of the Great
Depression, American Economic
Review,73(3), June 1983, 257-76.
Bernanke, B. 1995: The
Macroeconomics of Great
Depression, Journal of Money, Credit
and Banking v.27, No. 1 (Feb. 1995)
1-28
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
rr_fed_tgt_pi=r_fed_tgt-pi100*4
PI100*4
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
R_FED_TGT PI100*4 PRIME_R
16. 10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
BNKRPC
Why the Bubble Burst: Debt accelerator
I.e., the 2007 bubble burst was
triggered by a combination of
interest rate increase and
an un-foreseen accelerating
effect of high debt:
the unusually high borrowing
caused by the low rates in the
previous period
had devastating effect on the
disposable income of the
borrowers once the rates
suddenly rose, and, caused
a drop of the consumption
demand and
the resulting drop in GDP
and bank bankruptcies
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
rr_fed_tgt_pi=r_fed_tgt-pi100*4
PI100*4
17. Why the Bubble Burst: Debt accelerator
E.g. a cash and a interest only
mortgage strapped household,
with mortgage 30% of
disposable income
after interest rates doubled,
could not continue repaying
mortgage which
now amounted to 60% - 90%
of their disposable income.
Nor it could spend as usually.
This dual accelerating effect
then lead to
– collapse of demand
– GDP, and
– bank bankruptcies, further
accelerated by many fixed-rate
mortgages
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
rr_fed_tgt_pi=r_fed_tgt-pi100*4
PI100*4
16
20
24
28
32
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
PC_PC
18. How the Bubble Burst accelerated:
than the known mechanisms of
– financial a(de)ccelerator and
– credit rationing
– animal (hurd) instinct
were also triggered fuelling the
crisis further and,
CDO & CDS contagion farther.
Bernanke, B, Gertler, M. and
Gildchrist, S. 1999: The Financial
Accelerator in a Quantitative
Business Cycle Framework, O J.
Taylor and M. Woodford, eds.
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
North Holland, Amsterdam, 2000.
Stiglitz J.E and Greenwald, B.:
Towards a New Paradigm in
Monetary Economics, CUP 2003
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
rr_fed_tgt_pi=r_fed_tgt-pi100*4
PI100*4
16
20
24
28
32
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
PC_PC
19. Possible rationale for keeping target rates low :
Keeping wolfs of Japan-like deflation outside gates
to encourage households’ consumption and growth
Fed unaware of looming inflation in 2003-4 due to
incomplete real-time data,
FED using starting to use core rather than the
headline inflation measure,
Model Insufficiencies
Distortionary political effect of Presidential elections
in 2004 and 2008
20. Model Insufficiencies
Bernanke, B, Gertler, M. and Gildchrist, S. 1999 as many
other authors use standard linarised Euler equation
• ct= -σrt + E(ct+1)
but it can not capture the time-variant effect of time
variable loans on σ or on E(ct+1) due to RE.
Also, most commonly used household budget constraint
equations such as Smets and Wouters
accounts for income but it does not account for the loan
borrowing effect.
See: Smets, F. and Wouters, .: Shocks and Frictions in US
Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach, American
Ecnomic Revieew, 2007. (model in Appendix document)
21. Possible rationale for keeping target rates low :
Distortionary effect of Presidential elections in 2004 and 2008:
Alesina et al(1992) and find
“Our results can be summarized as follows: ….
2) We see some evidence of “political monetary cycles,” that is,
expansionary monetary policy in election years;
3) We also observe indications of “political budget cycles,” or
“loose” fiscal policy prior to elections;
4) Inflation exhibits a post-electoral jump, which could be
explained by either the pre-electoral “loose” monetary and fiscal
policies and/or by an opportunistic timing of increases in publicly
controlled prices, or indirect taxes.”
see: - Alesina, A. Cohen G. D., Roubini, N. Macroeconomic Policy and
Elections in OECD Democracies, Economics & Politics Volume 4, Issue
1, pages 130, March 1992
- Frenzese, R.J. : Electoral and Partisan Manipulation of Public Debt in
Developed Democracies, 1956-90, Institute for Social Research, The
University of Michigan working paper, May 1999
22. Conclusions: Keeping interest rates low
despite inflation and targeting
rule, and,
then rising them sharply
contributed to the housing market
bubble growing and
its bursting, respectively.
Consequently, some form of either
loan debt/GDP and/or
housing asset price bubble
targeting should be included in
the stricter followed Taylor rule, or,
additional FM control mechanism
in a richer, more complex, multiple
(heterogeneous) agent models so
that bubbles can be contained and
managed better.
8
12
16
20
24
28
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
INV_REAL_EST_LNS_PERGDP
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
PDEBT_PER_GDP_DFLT
23. Effects of inflation targeting misfiring on
development of housing market bubble
and its bursting in 2008 credit crisis
Author: George Perendia, LMBS
e-mail: george@perendia.orangehome.co.uk
Thank you for listening!
Editor's Notes
The above graphs show rapid rise in US public debt frm 30% of GDP to around 60% during Reagan adminstratin in those very same early 1980’s, rising further untill Clinton adminstraation inceased taxes and started reducing the debt in absolute value (left diagram) and as a percentage of GDP (right diagram). It reached its recent minimum in the 2nd Q of 2001 – that is, just before the 2001 September 11 events and henceforth started its rapid growth ever since
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings
On one hand, democratic governments had to spend more to please their voters and get re-elected and on the other hand (hand-in-hand), for the shear matter of credibility in their own publicised policies, the governments had to do what they also wanted themselves to do: to spend and borrow at a hight of their current incomes and resources, (rationally?) expecting that the perpetualy high growth and the low repay interest rates that will bring sustainability to their excessive borrowings