Presentation given at the 2016 Association for Collegiate Schools of Architecture conference in Seattle, WA. Brian Rich and Meghan Gattuso presented this paper together.

1. FUTURE-PROOFING
CRITICAL WATER
INFRASTRUCTURE:
An Economic and
Hazard Resilience
Perspective
Brian D. Rich, AIA, LEED BD+C, CCCA, PMP
University of Washington / Richaven PLLC
Meghan Gattuso
University of Washington
Figure 1: The 242 mile long Rio Colorado Aqueduct from Lake
Havasu to Tijuana, Mexico. Two reservoirs, five pumping stations,
63 mi (101 km) of canals, 92 mi (148 km) of tunnels, 84 mi (135 km)
of buried conduit and siphons, and 156 mi of distribution piping.
Credit: Secner USA, 2010.

2. Agenda
• Overview
• Pricing Potable Water
• Water Quality as Basis of Cost
• Economic Considerations in Tijuana
• Rationale for Future-Proofing Water Infrastructure
• Future-Proofing: A New Methodology
• Vulnerabilities of Water Infrastructure
• Potable Water Technologies
• San Diego and Tijuana’s Response
• Principles of Future-Proofing
• Application of the Principles
• Conclusion
Figure 2: A Google Map of the San Diego-Tijuana region. Though
separated by a border, they are very close and similar.

3. Overview
Figure 3: A map of the water infrastructure
system in California. Credit: State Water
Resources Control Board of California,
swrcb.ca.gov, 2015.
Legend

4. Water Quality: Basis of Cost
• Water treated as singular
commodity
• Water has multiple quality
levels
• Potable water more scarce
• Potable water value increasing
• In California, water prices increased
from $140 to $1100 in 2014
• Reclaimed water has
agricultural and energy uses.
Figure 4: This graph, developed on the UW Institute for Health Metrics
and Evaluation website, compares the number of illnesses due to
contaminated water sources. Credit: www.healthdata.org, 2015

5. Economic Considerations
• The World Bank considers
water affordable if it costs less
than 5% of a household's
income.
• UNEP predicts that by 2025,
2/3rds of the world will in
water stressed areas
• - efficient pricing can adjust
inefficient levels of domestic
water use
Figure 5: Water is often delivered by contaminated trucks to
contaminated containers in Mexico. Credit: Sam Christiansen, 2014

6. Economic Rationale
• Willing-To-Pay (WTP)
incorporates CVM as well as
qualitative costs in the pricing
of water
• ContingentValue Method
(CVM) is based on the
consumer demand in which
scarcity is an endogenous
factor
• In the Delta valley, prices
surged from $140 per acre foot
to $1000-$2000 in one year
based on scarcity
• Lost time = lost productivity =
lost wagesFigure 6: In Tlamacazapa, Mexico, water is hand carried from
contaminated public wells. Credit: Terry Asma, n.d.

7. Infrastructure Vulnerabilities
3 Hazard Vectors:
• Natural or animal causes
• Material deterioration
• Climate change (hydrology)
Infrastructure Components:
• Aqueducts and pipelines
• Reservoirs and dams
• Pump stations and local
distribution systems
• Water treatment facilities
Water ResourcesVulnerability in Southern
California

8. Water System Vulnerabilities
Figure 8: This map of the water main damage locations in Christchurch, New Zealand, shows the potential damage in a fairly limited area. By contrast,
California is a significantly larger area with a far more complicated and extensive water infrastructure. Credit: JR Black, Opus Int’l Consultants, 2013

9. Response to Vulnerabilities
• Emergency program aims for 75% service
level
• Multi-decade pipeline relining project
• Water tunnel projects to replace
aqueducts and canals
• Diversification of water sources
• Desalination
• Wastewater recycling
• Securing additional sources from the
Colorado River
• Capital improvement projects for system
components
• Aquifer recharge
• Aggressive industrial pretreatment and
recycling processes
Figure 11: The $1 billion Carlsbad Desalination Plant began production of
50,000 Million GPD in 2015 in San Diego, CA. Credit: carlsbaddesal.com.
Figure 10: San Diego’s response to water uncertainty includes
diversification of the water supplies. Credit: SWDCA.org

10. Future-Proof – The Concept
Future-proofing: The
process of anticipating
the future and
developing methods of
minimizing the negative
effects while taking
advantage of the positive
effects of shocks and
stresses due to future
events.
Figure 12: The Pont Du Gard aqueduct in France was built by the Romans
in the first century AD. Credit: xxx, 2007.

11. The Proposed Principles of
Future-Proofing
1. Prevent decay.
2. Stimulate flexibility and adaptability.
3. Extend service life.
4. Fortify!
5. Increase redundancy.
6. Reduce obsolescence.
7. Plan ahead.
8. Diversify.
9. Be local and healthy.
10. Consider lifecycle benefits.
11. Promote understanding.
12. Use cultural heritage policy documents.
Figure 13: The sarsen trilithons of Stonehenge (ca. 2500 BC): A Future-
Proof structure. Credit: http://hdw.eweb4.com

12. Implementation of Principles
California is responding by implementing
future-proof solutions for their water
supply:
• Diversifying water sources
• Increasing redundancy through
diversification and multiple pipeline and
storage systems
• Increasing strength and service life by
relining pipes, re-lining canals, building
new earthquake resistant pipeline
systems
• Developing and implementing post-
consumer water recycling technologies
• Planning ahead for emergencies and
securing international cooperation to
ensure long term water supplies
Figure 14: An electron microscope image of a PTFE filter for water
desalination. Credit: Joachim Koschikowski, 2011.

13. Implementation of Principles
California and Mexico can do more:
• Implement a robust ongoing maintenance
plan to preempt system failures
• Continue to diversify water supply
sources
• Develop additional capacity and storage
facilities
• Harden facilities against man-made
disasters
• Carefully plan for future demands and
development patterns
Figure 15: The USDA, NOAA, and other agencies monitor drought levels
across the US. Despite seasonal variations, the drought in California has
been growing over the last several years. Credit: droughtmonitor.unl.edu

14. CONCLUSION
www.principlesoffutureproofing.com
Figure 4: A hand pump well common in the SW US and Mexico. Many Mexicans get water from this traditional source. Credit: Inigo Manglano-Ovalle, 2014.