David Smith will give a talk on the future of work and how technological changes are impacting jobs and companies. The pace of technological innovation is increasing rapidly and forcing companies to constantly change their strategies, products/services, and workforces. This has contributed to trends like downsizing, outsourcing, and automation. The future workforce will also be impacted by a declining working age population, skills shortages, and a more global and diverse workforce. The nature of work and careers is shifting from long-term employment to more fluid "cyclic" models where people move between periods of work and non-work throughout their lives.

1. 9:00 AM - 10:00 AM
Innovation Overload – Technology, Jobs and the Future
Room: Meeting Room 4
Speaker: David Smith
This is not your grandfather’s job market where one could work and retire from one company after 40
years. Your father and your company have probably not fared that well either. The fast pace of
technology change and productivity improvements, in an increasingly competitive market, have
forced companies to change their strategy, frequently upgrade and improve their products or
services, and adjust their workforce. Downsizing, outsourcing, automation, financial pressures,
short-term demands, and failed strategy all contribute to the challenges.
The pace of technology innovation is increasing so fast that many have a hard time choosing where
to focus and how to discover what is new. Most delay action and then miss the window to innovate.
The growth of complex systems and a global infrastructure has changed the decision and education
process. The ability to adapt to real-time and continuous learning will provide an advantage for
professionals of the future. A future focus and focused innovation will drive the next generations of
products and services.
This talk explores the future of work and how it impacts companies and you.

2. David Smith
Technology, Jobs and the Future

3. Work
“No other technique for the conduct of life
attaches the individual so firmly to reality as
laying emphasis on work:
For work at least gives one a secure place in
a portion of reality, in the human community.”
Sigmund Freud
The product of work contributes to health, well-being and
economic & social stability.

4. Changes to the Future of Work

13. Source: Employment Policy Foundation analysis and
projections of Census/BLS and BEA data.
Millions of People
Expected Labor Force and Labor Force Demand
Growing Shortage of U.S. Workers
0
50
100
150
200
250
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Labor Needed
Labor Available

14. Female Labor Force Participation
(as a Percent of the Female Population Age 15+),
1990-2011

16. Screeching to a Halt:
Growth in the Working-Age Population
Source: Deloitte Research/UN Population Division (http://esa.un.org/unpp/) : Do You Know Where Your Talent Is? Why
Acquisition and Retention Strategies Don’t Work, p.6
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Mexico Brazil India China South Australia Canada US Netherlands Spain France UK Russia Italy Japan Germany
Korea
1970-2010
2010-2050

17. 5% 5%
-9%
18%
48%
15%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Age of Workers
Percent Growth in U.S. Population by Age: 2000-2010
Dramatically Different Patterns of Growth
by Age
1. Declining number of mid-career workers
2. Few younger
workers entering
3. Rapid growth in the over-55 workforce
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

18. . . . Continuing Into the Future
Age of Workers
Percent Growth in U.S. Workforce by Age: 2000-2020
7% 8% 7%
-10%
3%
73%
54%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
under 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 55-64 65+
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

19. In 2000, A Fairly “Young” World . . .
Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2000

20. . . . Rapidly Aging by 2025
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%
Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2025

21. 1900 1950 1970 1980 1990 20001910 1920 1930 1940 1960
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
80
Source: U.S. Social Security Administration
Average Life Expectancy at Birth in the U.S.
Why? Dramatic Increase in
Life Expectancy

22. “Sudden” Boom in Life Expectancy
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Life Expectancy at Birth: 1000 - 2000
Age
76.5
47
38
36
35
30
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1900 2000

23. And a Dramatic Drop in Birth Rates
Source: Age Wave
TotalFertilityRate
Total Fertility Rate:
3.3
2.8 2.9
3.6
2.0
2.5 2.5
4.0
5.9
2.0
1.7 1.7 1.6
1.4 1.3 1.2
1.8
3.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
US UK France Canada Japan Germany Italy China India
1960 2000

24. Why? The Baby Boom Pattern
Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
BirthinMillions
The Boom Years: 1946-1964

25. Skill Mismatch Ahead in the U.S.
 Over the next decade, only 30% of US 20 year/olds will obtain a
college degree, but 2/3’s of new jobs will require a college degree
 Key skill sets will be in critically short supply:
- # students that declared their major in computer science has
declined for past 4 years—now 39% lower than in 2000
- Other shortages: engineering, physical & biological sciences
 A growing number of high school dropouts
 Fewer high school graduates with vocational training
 Labor “imports” decreasing due to security restrictions and
opportunities in rapidly developing countries

26. When I was growing up, my parents
used to say to me, "Tom, finish your
dinner. People in China and India are
starving."
Today I tell my girls, "Finish your
homework. People in China and India
are starving for your jobs."
Source: “The New York Times' Thomas Friedman on
Globalization,” CIO Magazine, March 25, 2005
—Thomas
Friedman, The
World is Flat

27. U.S. 21st Century Workforce Challenges
Chronologically older
Limited availability
Key skills lacking
Global & Virtual
Diverse
- Race
- Gender
- Age Generations
- Culture
Source: Testimony by Tamara J. Erickson to the U.S. Senate Committee on
Health, Education, Labor and Pensions

28. Source: Based in part on “Meeting the Challenges of
Tomorrow's Workplace,” CEO Magazine
Four generations (cultures) are being asked to coexist in the
early 21st century workplace
“Multi-Generational” Workforce
Traditionalist Boomer Generation X Generation Y
Born: 1928-1945 Born: 1946-1964 Born: 1965-1980 Born: 1980-2000

29. • to disappear
• to go away
• to withdraw
Source: Webster's New Twentieth Century Dictionary
Webster's Definition of Retirement

30. Average Retirement Age of Males
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
France
64.5
59.2
65.2
60.5
64.5
60.6
66.2
62.3
66.2
62.7
66.5
63.6
67.2
Germany Italy Canada UK US Japan
19951960
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
66.5

31. Falling Desire for Jobs
with Greater Responsibility
Source: Generation & Gender in the Workplace, An Issue Brief by Families and Work Institute
69%
41%
14%
60%
54%
31%
15%
80%
Under 23 years old
(Gen-Y in 2002)
23-37 years old
(Gen-X in 2002)
38-57 years old
(Boomers in 2002)
58 or more years old
1992
2002

32. Declining Desire for Jobs with Greater
Responsibility By Gender
Source: Generation & Gender in the Workplace, An Issue Brief by Families and Work Institute
52%
68%
1992 2002
Men
36%
57%
1992 2002
Women
Employees Wanting Jobs with Greater Responsibility

33. Lower Alignment with the Organization
45
39
32
48
44
28
57
52
35
65
61
53
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
I really care about the fate
of this organization
(agree)
I’m willing to put in effort
beyond that normally
expected to help the
organization be
successful (agree)
I find my values and the
organization’s are similar
(agree)
Y X Boomer Traditionalist
Source: The New Employee/Employer Equation, The Concours Group and Age Wave

35. Education Work Leisure
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Shifting the Old Work/Life Paradigm . . .
Age
Source: Demography is De$tiny,
The Concours Group and Age Wave

36. Education Work Leisure
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Age
80
. . . To a “Cyclic” Life Paradigm
Source: Demography is De$tiny,
The Concours Group and Age Wave

37. Education Work Leisure
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Age
80
. . . Evolving to a “Blended Lifestyle”
Source: Demography is Destiny,
The Concours Group and Age Wave

38. Cutting Back Has New Meaning: Cyclic
Work
12%
39%
49%
Working full-time Working part-time Moving back and forth
between working full-time
and not working
The most popular pattern for
working after “retirement” is
not part-time, but moving
back and forth between
periods of working and not
working.
Source: The New Employee/Employer Equation

39. Cutting Back Has New Meaning: Cyclic
Work
12%
39%
49%
Working full-time Working part-time Moving back and forth
between working full-time
and not working
The most popular pattern for
working after “retirement” is
not part-time, but moving
back and forth between
periods of working and not
working.

43. Copyright, 2011 © HBMG, Inc.
The Limits of Technology
 The laws of physics
 The laws of software
 The challenge of algorithms
 The difficulty of distribution
 The problems of design
 The importance of organization
 The impact of economics
 The influence of politics
 The limits of human imagination
Fundamental
Human

44. The Open Economy
• New business models
based on collaboration, co-
creation & sharing
• Transparency as a normal
practice
• Conversations (two way
communication)
• Open interfaces to partners,
vendors, suppliers,
customers
• Common technology and
business standards
• Service and Experience
Mentality

46. Impact of Lifestyle on Health and Work
100%
0%
HEALTH
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
AGE
Ideal Lifeline
Typical Lifeline
Optimal Health
Declining Health
Poor Health
Progressive and
chronic disability
What is healthy aging in the 21st century? Westendorp RGJ Am J Clin Nut

47. Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.

48. Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.

67. The reward for work well
done is the opportunity to
do more.
- Jonas Salk (1914 - 1995)

68. In Parting: Be Paranoid
“Sooner or later, something
fundamental in your business
world will change.”
 Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel
“Only the Paranoid Survive”