The document discusses frameworks for understanding technological change, noting that growth is not just linear or exponential but can also be discontinuous. It argues that a general framework is needed and that technology is immersing other areas in exponential and discontinuous change. Over the next 50 years, there may be changes greater than the Internet that combine linear, exponential, and discontinuous growth patterns.

1. The Future of Technology Melanie Swan Research Associate MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http://www.melanieswan.com Technology And Society Committee November 11, 2008 Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/slideshows

4. Extensibility of Moore’s Law Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/ Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors Transistors per microprocessor

6. Future of computing Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials 3D chip stacking Molecular electronics Solar transistors DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence New paradigm discovery

8. What might be the next Internet? Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Virtual environments New computing models Robotics Brain-computer interfaces Personalized medicine Affordable space launch 3D printing, fabbing Synthetic biology Alternative energy Mobile applications

17. What might be the next Internet? Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Virtual environments New computing models Robotics Brain-computer interfaces Personalized medicine Affordable space launch 3D printing, fabbing Synthetic biology Alternative energy Mobile applications

19. Thank you Melanie Swan Research Associate MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http://www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/slideshows