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Discontinuity Futures Simulation Swan

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A comprehensive view of accelerating change across fields is critical to innovating for the future. Assessment models and evaluation parameters are presented here.

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Discontinuity Futures Simulation Swan

  1. 1. Discontinuity Futures Simulation Workshop Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Singularity University August 5, 2009 GA11: 9-12 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows
  2. 2. Summary <ul><li>A key aspect of futures studies is the convergent and interdisciplinary nature of disparate technologies </li></ul>Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 <ul><li>Technology growth may be linear, exponential and discontinuous </li></ul><ul><li>The ultimate future depends on the order in which discontinuities are realized </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid transition time, doubling capability and adjacent advances may provide clues to discontinuous change </li></ul>Image credit: Fausto de Martini
  3. 3. Singularity University Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Nanotechnology Biotechnology and Bioinformatics Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement AI and Robotics Space and Physical Sciences Energy and Ecological Systems Networks and Computing Systems Futures Studies Policy Law and Ethics Finance and Entrepreneurship <ul><li>Unifying frameworks and track synthesis </li></ul>
  4. 4. Sequence of discontinuities Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 <ul><li>The ultimate future depends on the order in which discontinuities arrive </li></ul>Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Whole human genome New computing paradigm Robotics Intelligence augmentation Personalized medicine Affordable space launch 3D printing Synthetic biology Space-based civilization New energy regime Uploading Modification of human biological drives time 2009-2020 2020-2030 2030-2050 +10 +20 +40 Brain emulation Room- temperature superconductivity Mechanosynthesis
  5. 5. Paradigms of growth and change <ul><li>Linear </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic, demographic, life span phenomena </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Exponential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, iPhone applications </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Discontinuous </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, globalization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Impossible to predict </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Rapid transition time and doubling capability </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Adjacent technology advances </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Level of engagement </li></ul></ul></ul>Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Exponential Discontinuous Linear
  6. 6. First principles (implied by historical trends) <ul><li>Increase in humaneness </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Slavery, smoking, saturated fat, dentistry </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Increase in abundance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Segment expansion (TIVO wedge) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Radio/music sales, TV/YouTube </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple choices, not either/or </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Expanded possibilities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ex: more habitable places: deserts, poles, seasteading, airsteading </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Intervention (vs. interference) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Inter-societal knowledge </li></ul></ul>Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009
  7. 7. Evolving concept of science Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Model and simulate Enumerate and experiment Build BioSpice.org SimTK.org PartsRegistry.org GeneGo (pathway modeling) Entelos virtual patient biosimulation FabAtHome.org
  8. 8. Evolving concept of health Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 A consumer-centric model of health care Source: http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/6/2/492
  9. 9. Extensibility of Moore’s Law Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors Transistors per microprocessor Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither
  10. 10. ITRS semiconductor roadmap Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf <ul><li>2007: 32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>2009: 32 nm shifted out to 2010 </li></ul>2009 2010 X
  11. 11. Computing paradigm shifts Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Electro-mechanical Relay Vacuum tube Transistor Integrated circuit Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither ?
  12. 12. Evolving computational models Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials 3D chip stacking Molecular electronics Solar transistors DNA nanotech DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence Bioparadigm discovery
  13. 13. End of Moore’s Law problem: when does top-down meet bottom-up? Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 <ul><li>Top-down solutions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Block copolymer lithography </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CNT transistors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Memristor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quantum-dot cellular automata </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Plasmonic materials & spintronics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quilt packaging & 3D stacking </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bottom-up solutions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>DNA self-assembly </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DNA computing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DNA-based transistors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3D DNA nanocrystals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Molecular memory </li></ul></ul>Structural DNA: Holliday junction Rotaxane Molecular propeller
  14. 14. Arms race for the future of intelligence Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 1 Source: Top 500, June 2009, http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.crn.com/hardware/208403186 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html Machine Human <ul><li>IBM Roadrunner 1.105 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Unlimited operational/build knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months </li></ul><ul><li>Linear, von Neumann architecture </li></ul><ul><li>Understands rigid language </li></ul><ul><li>Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection) </li></ul><ul><li>Metal chassis, easy to backup </li></ul><ul><li>An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Limited operational/build knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations </li></ul><ul><li>Massively parallel architecture </li></ul><ul><li>Understands flexible, fuzzy language </li></ul><ul><li>General purpose problem solving, works well in new situations </li></ul><ul><li>Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible </li></ul>
  15. 15. Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither Full human brain neural simulation est: 2018 Average human: an estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 IBM Roadrunner: 1.1 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1 1 http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html
  16. 16. Engineering life into technology Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 2029 Machine Human Human ′ ? Capability Year Biomolecular interface convergence
  17. 17. Summary <ul><li>A key aspect of futures studies is the convergent and interdisciplinary nature of disparate technologies </li></ul>Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 <ul><li>Technology growth may be linear, exponential and discontinuous </li></ul><ul><li>The ultimate future depends on the order in which discontinuities are realized </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid transition time, doubling capability and adjacent advances may provide clues to discontinuous change </li></ul>
  18. 18. Discontinuity futures simulation workshop <ul><li>World’s top venture capitalists </li></ul><ul><ul><li>5 teams </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Each team has $1b to invest </li></ul><ul><li>Round 1: 2009-2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Round 1: 2020-2030 </li></ul><ul><li>Round 3: 2030-2040 </li></ul>Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Image credit: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman
  19. 19. Discontinuity futures simulation workshop Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Nanotechnology Biotechnology and Bioinformatics Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement AI and Robotics Space and Physical Sciences Energy and Ecological Systems Networks and Computing Systems Futures Studies Policy Law and Ethics Finance and Entrepreneurship <ul><li>Original ten Singularity University tracks </li></ul>
  20. 20. Discontinuity futures simulation workshop Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Nanotechnology Life Sciences AI, Robotics, Networks and Computing Systems Space and Physical Sciences Energy and Ecological Systems <ul><li>You are the world’s leading venture capitalist… </li></ul>
  21. 21. Thank you Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows Creative Commons 3.0 license

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