Discontinuity Futures Simulation Swan

Discontinuity Futures Simulation Workshop Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Singularity University August 5, 2009 GA11: 9-12 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows

Summary ,[object Object],Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Image credit: Fausto de Martini

Singularity University Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Nanotechnology Biotechnology and Bioinformatics Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement AI and Robotics Space and Physical Sciences Energy and Ecological Systems Networks and Computing Systems Futures Studies Policy Law and Ethics Finance and Entrepreneurship ,[object Object]

Sequence of discontinuities Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 ,[object Object],Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Whole human genome New computing paradigm Robotics Intelligence augmentation Personalized medicine Affordable space launch 3D printing Synthetic biology Space-based civilization New energy regime Uploading Modification of human biological drives time 2009-2020 2020-2030 2030-2050 +10 +20 +40 Brain emulation Room- temperature superconductivity Mechanosynthesis

Paradigms of growth and change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Exponential Discontinuous Linear

First principles (implied by historical trends) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009

Evolving concept of science Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Model and simulate Enumerate and experiment Build BioSpice.org SimTK.org PartsRegistry.org GeneGo (pathway modeling) Entelos virtual patient biosimulation FabAtHome.org

Evolving concept of health Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 A consumer-centric model of health care Source: http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/6/2/492

Extensibility of Moore’s Law Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors Transistors per microprocessor Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither

ITRS semiconductor roadmap Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf ,[object Object],[object Object],2009 2010 X

Computing paradigm shifts Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Electro-mechanical Relay Vacuum tube Transistor Integrated circuit Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither ?

Evolving computational models Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials 3D chip stacking Molecular electronics Solar transistors DNA nanotech DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence Bioparadigm discovery

End of Moore’s Law problem: when does top-down meet bottom-up? Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Structural DNA: Holliday junction Rotaxane Molecular propeller

Arms race for the future of intelligence Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 1 Source: Top 500, June 2009, http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.crn.com/hardware/208403186 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html Machine Human ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither Full human brain neural simulation est: 2018 Average human: an estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 IBM Roadrunner: 1.1 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1 1 http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html

Engineering life into technology Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 2029 Machine Human Human ′ ? Capability Year Biomolecular interface convergence

Summary ,[object Object],Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Discontinuity futures simulation workshop ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Image credit: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman

Discontinuity futures simulation workshop Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Nanotechnology Biotechnology and Bioinformatics Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement AI and Robotics Space and Physical Sciences Energy and Ecological Systems Networks and Computing Systems Futures Studies Policy Law and Ethics Finance and Entrepreneurship ,[object Object]

Discontinuity futures simulation workshop Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Nanotechnology Life Sciences AI, Robotics, Networks and Computing Systems Space and Physical Sciences Energy and Ecological Systems ,[object Object]

Thank you Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows Creative Commons 3.0 license

Discontinuity Futures Simulation Swan

Discontinuity Futures Simulation Swan

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