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Future Frameworks Simulation Workshop Melanie Swan  Principal  MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com November 9, 2009 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows “ The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.” - C. S. Lewis Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/
Futures analysis techniques  Short term (0-5 yrs): some degree of insight and certainty Forecasting Scanning Business intelligence Trend analysis Market research Outlier identification Technology evaluation checklist Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Long term (5-20+ yrs): uncertainty, discontinuity Frameworks Scenario planning Simulation Wild-carding Longitudinal studies Multiple time frames Prediction markets Image: Bill Frymire
The problem: pervasive change Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Botnets Chromallocyte Life extension Swarm computing Synthetic biology Virtual reality Quantum computing Genomics 22 nm Electric vehicles 3D printing Smart phones Supercomputing 3D printing Neuroimaging DIYbio Automatic markets Cloud computing Programmable matter Autonomous robotics New battery chemistry Affordable space launch 4G Cyber terrorism Pandemic Molecular nanotechnology Algal fuel Minimal genomes Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) Body area networks (BANs) Radiosurgery Cell broadband engine Positional assembly Peer-to-peer finance RFID Post-scarcity economy Smartgrid Rich attribute knowledge Fuel cell Nanoparticles Agalmics Knowledge engineering Solar power
The solution: futures frameworks Technological level Dimensional model Chronological model Velocity paradigms FutureThink principles Conceptual shifts  Underlying drivers  Trajectory intersection Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Image: http://www.newsin3d.com Image: http://www.secondlife.com
1. Technological level Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Capability, technology, application or effect? Level 1 Enabler: Capability  Research Labs Level 2 Enabler: Technology  Startups Level 3 Enabler: Application  Corporations Level 4 Enabler: Implication  Societies Mechanosynthesis New battery chemistry Exaflop computing Knowledge representation 4G / WiMAX 22 nm node chips Long DNA sequence reads 1 GB broadband Molecular nanotechnology Next-gen batteries Natural language processing TV on mobile phones Facial recognition Whole human DNA & RNA sequencing Neuroimaging Molecular synthesizer  Electric vehicles Artificial intelligence Brain-computer interface 3D printer Million member clinical trial cohorts Digital human mindfile  iPhone FaceConnector Post-scarcity economy Geopolitical shifts Gas-powered cars obsolete Global service economy outsourced to automation Chronic disease disappears Remote medical diagnosis
2. Dimensional model Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Nanotechnology Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement Biotechnology and Bioinformatics  Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Energy and Environmental Systems  Networks and Computing Systems  A unifying framework for SU track synthesis
3. Chronological model Future frameworks November 9, 2009 The ultimate future depends on the order in which advances arrive Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Whole human genome New computing paradigm Robotics Neural implants Electric vehicles Affordable space launch 3D printing Synthetic biology Space-based civilization New energy regime Uploading Modification of human biological drives Time (years) 2009-2020 2020-2030 2030-2050 +10 +20 +40 Brain emulation Room- temperature superconductivity Mechanosynthesis 1 GB broadband Battery innovation THz computing era
4. Velocity: paradigms of growth Linear  Economic, demographic, life span phenomena Exponential  Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, iPhone applications Discontinuous  Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, social networks  Difficult to predict Rapid transition time and doubling capability Adjacent technology advances Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Exponential Discontinuous Linear
4. Discontinuity and adjacent advances Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1Source: http://www.hansonrobotics.com/Hanson-Robots_March-14-09.pdf 2 Source: http://www.chem.ucla.edu/houk/research.htm Innovation is interdisciplinary and interstitial Technology or Application Made possible by… iPod / MP3 players Disk miniaturization, longer battery life, business model for music download Blue Brain cortical simulation project Neuroimaging, infrared-DIC videomicroscopy, neuronal simulation software Protein folding simulation reaching to 1 ms Distributed computing, GPUs, Markov State models Telepresence Converged corporate telecoms services CardioMEMS Applying MEMS technology to pacemakers Zeno empathic robot – Hanson Robotics Battery, nanoporous materials advances 1 De novo enzyme design (Houk 2 ) Molecular dynamics, computational chemistry Nokia mobile phone leadership Digital technology (vs. Motorola’s analog) Nanoparticles/improved cancer treatment Molecular biology, molecular manufacturing Rapid prototyping and simulation RepRap, Fab@Home, 3D organ printing Political campaigns (B Obama, R Paul, H Dean)  Social media, online fundraising
5. FutureThink: the mindset of the future Increase in humaneness Slavery, capital punishment Increase in choices Segment expansion (TiVo wedge) Multiple choices, not either/or Decrease in limitations Earth habitability and carrying capacity Continuation of conflict Bioterror, surveillance, computer security Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Image: http://aki54.wdfiles.com
6. Conceptual shift: science Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Model and simulate Enumerate and  experiment Build BioSpice.org SimTK.org PartsRegistry.org GeneGo (pathway modeling) Entelos virtual patient biosimulation FabAtHome.org
6. Conceptual shift: health Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/10/preventive-medicine-and-docs-vs.html Out of work due to technological advance: elevator operator, stock broker, physician (?)
Future frameworks November 9, 2009 7. Underlying drivers Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ Penryn (45 nm) (65 nm)  Nehalem Core i7 (45 nm) Westmere i9 (32 nm) (est.) Ivy Bridge (22 nm) (est.)
7. Computing paradigm shifts Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ ?
7. Evolving computational models Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel electronic models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials New architectures: 3D stacking Programmable  matter Molecular electronics DNA nanotech DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence Bioparadigm discovery Space, not time-based
7. ITRS 1  semiconductor roadmap Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf Intel: 2-3 more cycles of Moore’s Law planned Followed by 3-D architectures, programmable matter  Node: half the distance between cells in a DRAM chip 2009
7. A central challenge in computing Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Top-down solutions EUV and block copolymer lithography CNT transistors Memristor Quantum-dot cellular automata Plasmonic materials & spintronics Quilt packaging & 3D stacking Bottom-up solutions DNA self-assembly DNA computing DNA-based transistors 3D DNA nanocrystals Molecular memory Structural DNA: Holliday junction Rotaxane Molecular propeller Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/05/opportunities-in-level-two-nanoscience.html   Nanoscience 32 nm    10 nm
8. Trajectory intersection Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1 Source: Top 500, June 2009, http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.crn.com/hardware/208403186 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html Arms race for the future of intelligence Machine Human IBM Roadrunner 1.105 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1 Unlimited operational/build knowledge Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months Linear, von Neumann architecture Understands rigid language Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection) Metal chassis, easy to backup An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2   Limited operational/build knowledge Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations Massively parallel architecture Understands flexible, fuzzy language  General purpose problem solving, works well in new situations Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible
Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ 1 http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html 8. Full human neural simulation est: 2018 Average human: an estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2   IBM Roadrunner: 1.1 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1
8. Engineering life into technology Future frameworks November 9, 2009 2029 1 Machine Human Human ′ ? Capability Year Source: MS Futures Group, March 2009 Biomolecular interface convergence 1 Source: The Singularity is Near
Futures frameworks review Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1. Tech level  2. Dimensional  3. Chronological  4. Velocity 5. FutureThink  6. Conceptual shifts  7. Drivers  8. Intersection
Prediction markets Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Speculative market  Purpose: make predictions Value: expose hidden information Pay-off: monetary, reputational, indirect Accuracy: better than conventional forecasting 1 Examples:  InTrade, IEM, HSX, LongBets Structure Event outcome (win/loss) Market scoring (continuum) 1 Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878  http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877 Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 Democratic Convention Market Clinton Obama Image: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/IEM_DCON2008.svg
Futures simulation workshop Future frameworks November 9, 2009 You are the world’s leading venture capitalists 5 teams, $1 billion to invest STR  – Political, Economic, Legal, Social Institutions  NAN   –  Nanotechnology LIF  –  Life Sciences (Biotechnology & Medicine) AIC   – AI, Robotics, Computing and Communications ENE  – Energy, Environmental Systems and Space
Futures simulation workshop Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Round 1: 2009 – 2020 Each team creates two plausible future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams Each person votes by investing in the top technologies Winning teams and technologies are those that garner the most investment Image: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman
Thank you Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows Creative Commons 3.0 license Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/

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Futures Frameworks Simulation

  • 1. Future Frameworks Simulation Workshop Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com November 9, 2009 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows “ The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.” - C. S. Lewis Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/
  • 2. Futures analysis techniques Short term (0-5 yrs): some degree of insight and certainty Forecasting Scanning Business intelligence Trend analysis Market research Outlier identification Technology evaluation checklist Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Long term (5-20+ yrs): uncertainty, discontinuity Frameworks Scenario planning Simulation Wild-carding Longitudinal studies Multiple time frames Prediction markets Image: Bill Frymire
  • 3. The problem: pervasive change Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Botnets Chromallocyte Life extension Swarm computing Synthetic biology Virtual reality Quantum computing Genomics 22 nm Electric vehicles 3D printing Smart phones Supercomputing 3D printing Neuroimaging DIYbio Automatic markets Cloud computing Programmable matter Autonomous robotics New battery chemistry Affordable space launch 4G Cyber terrorism Pandemic Molecular nanotechnology Algal fuel Minimal genomes Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) Body area networks (BANs) Radiosurgery Cell broadband engine Positional assembly Peer-to-peer finance RFID Post-scarcity economy Smartgrid Rich attribute knowledge Fuel cell Nanoparticles Agalmics Knowledge engineering Solar power
  • 4. The solution: futures frameworks Technological level Dimensional model Chronological model Velocity paradigms FutureThink principles Conceptual shifts Underlying drivers Trajectory intersection Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Image: http://www.newsin3d.com Image: http://www.secondlife.com
  • 5. 1. Technological level Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Capability, technology, application or effect? Level 1 Enabler: Capability Research Labs Level 2 Enabler: Technology Startups Level 3 Enabler: Application Corporations Level 4 Enabler: Implication Societies Mechanosynthesis New battery chemistry Exaflop computing Knowledge representation 4G / WiMAX 22 nm node chips Long DNA sequence reads 1 GB broadband Molecular nanotechnology Next-gen batteries Natural language processing TV on mobile phones Facial recognition Whole human DNA & RNA sequencing Neuroimaging Molecular synthesizer Electric vehicles Artificial intelligence Brain-computer interface 3D printer Million member clinical trial cohorts Digital human mindfile iPhone FaceConnector Post-scarcity economy Geopolitical shifts Gas-powered cars obsolete Global service economy outsourced to automation Chronic disease disappears Remote medical diagnosis
  • 6. 2. Dimensional model Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Nanotechnology Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement Biotechnology and Bioinformatics Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Energy and Environmental Systems Networks and Computing Systems A unifying framework for SU track synthesis
  • 7. 3. Chronological model Future frameworks November 9, 2009 The ultimate future depends on the order in which advances arrive Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Whole human genome New computing paradigm Robotics Neural implants Electric vehicles Affordable space launch 3D printing Synthetic biology Space-based civilization New energy regime Uploading Modification of human biological drives Time (years) 2009-2020 2020-2030 2030-2050 +10 +20 +40 Brain emulation Room- temperature superconductivity Mechanosynthesis 1 GB broadband Battery innovation THz computing era
  • 8. 4. Velocity: paradigms of growth Linear Economic, demographic, life span phenomena Exponential Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, iPhone applications Discontinuous Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, social networks Difficult to predict Rapid transition time and doubling capability Adjacent technology advances Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Exponential Discontinuous Linear
  • 9. 4. Discontinuity and adjacent advances Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1Source: http://www.hansonrobotics.com/Hanson-Robots_March-14-09.pdf 2 Source: http://www.chem.ucla.edu/houk/research.htm Innovation is interdisciplinary and interstitial Technology or Application Made possible by… iPod / MP3 players Disk miniaturization, longer battery life, business model for music download Blue Brain cortical simulation project Neuroimaging, infrared-DIC videomicroscopy, neuronal simulation software Protein folding simulation reaching to 1 ms Distributed computing, GPUs, Markov State models Telepresence Converged corporate telecoms services CardioMEMS Applying MEMS technology to pacemakers Zeno empathic robot – Hanson Robotics Battery, nanoporous materials advances 1 De novo enzyme design (Houk 2 ) Molecular dynamics, computational chemistry Nokia mobile phone leadership Digital technology (vs. Motorola’s analog) Nanoparticles/improved cancer treatment Molecular biology, molecular manufacturing Rapid prototyping and simulation RepRap, Fab@Home, 3D organ printing Political campaigns (B Obama, R Paul, H Dean) Social media, online fundraising
  • 10. 5. FutureThink: the mindset of the future Increase in humaneness Slavery, capital punishment Increase in choices Segment expansion (TiVo wedge) Multiple choices, not either/or Decrease in limitations Earth habitability and carrying capacity Continuation of conflict Bioterror, surveillance, computer security Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Image: http://aki54.wdfiles.com
  • 11. 6. Conceptual shift: science Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Model and simulate Enumerate and experiment Build BioSpice.org SimTK.org PartsRegistry.org GeneGo (pathway modeling) Entelos virtual patient biosimulation FabAtHome.org
  • 12. 6. Conceptual shift: health Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/10/preventive-medicine-and-docs-vs.html Out of work due to technological advance: elevator operator, stock broker, physician (?)
  • 13. Future frameworks November 9, 2009 7. Underlying drivers Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ Penryn (45 nm) (65 nm) Nehalem Core i7 (45 nm) Westmere i9 (32 nm) (est.) Ivy Bridge (22 nm) (est.)
  • 14. 7. Computing paradigm shifts Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ ?
  • 15. 7. Evolving computational models Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel electronic models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials New architectures: 3D stacking Programmable matter Molecular electronics DNA nanotech DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence Bioparadigm discovery Space, not time-based
  • 16. 7. ITRS 1 semiconductor roadmap Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf Intel: 2-3 more cycles of Moore’s Law planned Followed by 3-D architectures, programmable matter Node: half the distance between cells in a DRAM chip 2009
  • 17. 7. A central challenge in computing Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Top-down solutions EUV and block copolymer lithography CNT transistors Memristor Quantum-dot cellular automata Plasmonic materials & spintronics Quilt packaging & 3D stacking Bottom-up solutions DNA self-assembly DNA computing DNA-based transistors 3D DNA nanocrystals Molecular memory Structural DNA: Holliday junction Rotaxane Molecular propeller Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/05/opportunities-in-level-two-nanoscience.html Nanoscience 32 nm 10 nm
  • 18. 8. Trajectory intersection Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1 Source: Top 500, June 2009, http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.crn.com/hardware/208403186 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html Arms race for the future of intelligence Machine Human IBM Roadrunner 1.105 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1 Unlimited operational/build knowledge Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months Linear, von Neumann architecture Understands rigid language Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection) Metal chassis, easy to backup An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 Limited operational/build knowledge Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations Massively parallel architecture Understands flexible, fuzzy language General purpose problem solving, works well in new situations Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible
  • 19. Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ 1 http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html 8. Full human neural simulation est: 2018 Average human: an estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 IBM Roadrunner: 1.1 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1
  • 20. 8. Engineering life into technology Future frameworks November 9, 2009 2029 1 Machine Human Human ′ ? Capability Year Source: MS Futures Group, March 2009 Biomolecular interface convergence 1 Source: The Singularity is Near
  • 21. Futures frameworks review Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1. Tech level 2. Dimensional 3. Chronological 4. Velocity 5. FutureThink 6. Conceptual shifts 7. Drivers 8. Intersection
  • 22. Prediction markets Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Speculative market Purpose: make predictions Value: expose hidden information Pay-off: monetary, reputational, indirect Accuracy: better than conventional forecasting 1 Examples: InTrade, IEM, HSX, LongBets Structure Event outcome (win/loss) Market scoring (continuum) 1 Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877 Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 Democratic Convention Market Clinton Obama Image: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/IEM_DCON2008.svg
  • 23. Futures simulation workshop Future frameworks November 9, 2009 You are the world’s leading venture capitalists 5 teams, $1 billion to invest STR – Political, Economic, Legal, Social Institutions NAN – Nanotechnology LIF – Life Sciences (Biotechnology & Medicine) AIC – AI, Robotics, Computing and Communications ENE – Energy, Environmental Systems and Space
  • 24. Futures simulation workshop Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Round 1: 2009 – 2020 Each team creates two plausible future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams Each person votes by investing in the top technologies Winning teams and technologies are those that garner the most investment Image: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman
  • 25. Thank you Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows Creative Commons 3.0 license Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/

Editor's Notes

  1. New bioparadigm discovery: e.g.; encrypted DNA of the ciliate