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The document discusses the future of technology and outlines different paradigms of growth including linear, exponential, and discontinuous change. It notes that while hardware improvements will likely continue unabated due to Moore's Law, software progress faces more challenges. The document also explores potential emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, molecular nanotechnology, life extension, virtual and augmented reality, and their potential impacts, which could include a change greater than the Internet.
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The Moon is Earth's natural satellite and the fifth largest in the Solar System. It has one quarter the diameter of Earth and 1/81 its mass. The Moon is in synchronous rotation with Earth and always shows the same face. Comets originate from the Oort Cloud or Kuiper Belt and travel great distances, spending most of their time far beyond Pluto before making brief close passes by the Sun.
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IOT is connecting every physical object in the world using wireless technologies to track and control them from every where in the world...Every object is uniquely identified using ip addresses(IPv6)
The document discusses the future of technology and outlines different paradigms of growth including linear, exponential, and discontinuous change. It notes that while hardware improvements will likely continue unabated due to Moore's Law, software progress faces more challenges. The document also explores potential emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, molecular nanotechnology, life extension, virtual and augmented reality, and their potential impacts, which could include a change greater than the Internet.
At some point in the next few decades, the capability of technology could outpace that of life. However, life and technology are not disparate streams but are already starting to converge as high-impact research findings show in synthetic biology, DNA nanotechnology, nanomedicine, neuroimaging, whole brain simulation and longevity.
This document provides an overview of future technology trends and gadgets, including PureView imaging technology which allows for lossless zoom and improved video autofocus, Google Glass which displays information hands-free via voice commands, applications like Circle of 6 and Google Drive, Corning Gorilla Glass which is durable cover glass for devices, and Ultra HD or 8K television displays with very high resolution.
The document discusses the Large Hadron Collider and water on Mars. It mentions the Eberswalde Delta Martian north polar cap, which contains a water equivalent hydrogen abundance in Mars' high latitudes. It also discusses Eris, a dwarf planet discovered in 2005 that is virtually the same size as Pluto but more massive, and takes 557 years to orbit the sun. Eris was initially classified as a planet when Pluto was reclassified.
The Moon is Earth's natural satellite and the fifth largest in the Solar System. It has one quarter the diameter of Earth and 1/81 its mass. The Moon is in synchronous rotation with Earth and always shows the same face. Comets originate from the Oort Cloud or Kuiper Belt and travel great distances, spending most of their time far beyond Pluto before making brief close passes by the Sun.
The document discusses the history and arguments for and against space exploration. It outlines the key events in space exploration history from Sputnik 1 to the first moon landing. Both the dangers and high costs of space travel are presented as counter arguments, while supporting arguments note the technological benefits and spin-offs, curiosity of humankind, and new opportunities space exploration provides. The conclusion recommends that future space systems focus on reducing costs and improving safety, and developing useful technologies to benefit people.
IOT is connecting every physical object in the world using wireless technologies to track and control them from every where in the world...Every object is uniquely identified using ip addresses(IPv6)
The document discusses the future of technology and outlines different paradigms of growth including linear, exponential, and discontinuous change. It notes that while hardware improvements will likely continue unabated due to Moore's Law, software progress faces more challenges. The document also explores potential emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, molecular nanotechnology, life extension, virtual and augmented reality, and their potential impacts, which could include changes greater than the internet.
The document discusses emerging technologies and their future impacts. It notes that growth can be linear, exponential, or discontinuous. While hardware continues to advance exponentially per Moore's law, software progress has slowed. The document outlines many developing technologies like AI, nanotechnology, biotechnology, and virtual reality that could drive discontinuous changes greater than the internet. It envisions a future with advanced computation, extended lifespans, integrated human-machine capabilities, and expanded access to space.
A general futurist look at how linear, exponential and discontinuous growth is shaping the future of technology and what may be expected in key areas such as hardware, software, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, biotechnology, life extension and virtual worlds.
Audio: http://feeds.feedburner.com/BroaderPerspectivePodcast
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What will be the next Internet? 11 revolutionary technologies are shaping the future: molecular nanotechnology, biotechnology and personalized medicine, synthetic biology, life extension and anti-aging therapies, robotics, artificial intelligence, intelligence augmentation, virtual reality, fabbing, quantum computing and affordable space launch.
This is a January 2008 update to the similar October 2007 presentation.
The document discusses frameworks for understanding technological change, noting that growth is not just linear or exponential but can also be discontinuous. It argues that a general framework is needed and that technology is immersing other areas in exponential and discontinuous change. Over the next 50 years, there may be changes greater than the Internet that combine linear, exponential, and discontinuous growth patterns.
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1) The document discusses past and future developments in science and technology over the past 100 years and next 100 years.
2) It highlights major innovations after World War 2 like the establishment of NSF, transistors, computers, and emergence of new technologies like radar and sonar.
3) Looking ahead, it predicts advancements in areas like artificial organs, genetic engineering, automated vehicles, ultra high-speed internet, and AI-assisted design. Storage of renewable energy is also highlighted as a key challenge.
The document discusses the future of technology and outlines different paradigms of growth including linear, exponential, and discontinuous change. It argues that a general framework is needed to understand technological change as growth is not just linear or exponential, but can also be discontinuous. The realm of technology is immersing other areas in exponential and discontinuous change. Over the next fifty years, linear, exponential and possibly discontinuous technological changes may have an even greater impact than the Internet.
Man’s dreams of ‘intelligences and robots’ go back thousands of years to the worship of gods and statues; mythologies: talisman and puppets; people, places and objects with supposed magical and (often) judgemental/punitive abilities. But it wasn’t until the electronic revolution in 1915, accelerated by WWII that we saw the realisation of two game changing-machines: Colossus (Decoding Machine of Bletchley Park) 1943 and ENIAC (Artillery Computation Engine and Nuclear Bomb Design @ The University of Pennsylvania) 1946.
And so in 1950 the modern AI movement was optimistically projecting what machines would be capable of ‘almost anything’ by 1960/70. Unfortunately, there was no understanding of the complexity to be addressed, and all the projections were wildly wrong; leading to a deep trough of disparagement and disillusionment of some 30 years. However, 70 years on and the original AI optimism and projections of what might be had at least been largely achieved with AI outgunning humans at every board and card game including Poker and GO, and of course; general knowledge, medical diagnosis, image and information pattern recognition…
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1. Genomic sequencing is driving big data as the cost of sequencing DNA falls faster than Moore's Law and the amount of data produced increases dramatically.
2. The Beijing Genome Institute is the world's largest genomic institute, using over 130 sequencing machines each producing 25 gigabases per day for a total of over 12 petabytes of data storage.
3. Interdisciplinary teams of computer scientists, data analysts, and geneticists are needed to analyze the massive amounts of genomic and metagenomic data being produced to gain insights into human health and disease.
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In a rapidly changing world of growing demand and diminishing resources merely polishing our old technologies and making industrial processes ever more efficient only delays the onset of crisis and collapse - it does not solve the fundamental problem. Sustainable futures are inextricably linked to radical change and the creation of new technologies based on new materials, processing, shaping, use, reuse, repurposing and recycling at minimal loss.
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The document discusses the future of technology and outlines different paradigms of growth including linear, exponential, and discontinuous change. It notes that while hardware improvements will likely continue unabated due to Moore's Law, software progress faces more challenges. The document also explores potential emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, molecular nanotechnology, life extension, virtual and augmented reality, and their potential impacts, which could include changes greater than the internet.
The document discusses emerging technologies and their future impacts. It notes that growth can be linear, exponential, or discontinuous. While hardware continues to advance exponentially per Moore's law, software progress has slowed. The document outlines many developing technologies like AI, nanotechnology, biotechnology, and virtual reality that could drive discontinuous changes greater than the internet. It envisions a future with advanced computation, extended lifespans, integrated human-machine capabilities, and expanded access to space.
A general futurist look at how linear, exponential and discontinuous growth is shaping the future of technology and what may be expected in key areas such as hardware, software, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, biotechnology, life extension and virtual worlds.
Audio: http://feeds.feedburner.com/BroaderPerspectivePodcast
Future of Technology - Jan 2008 updateMelanie Swan
What will be the next Internet? 11 revolutionary technologies are shaping the future: molecular nanotechnology, biotechnology and personalized medicine, synthetic biology, life extension and anti-aging therapies, robotics, artificial intelligence, intelligence augmentation, virtual reality, fabbing, quantum computing and affordable space launch.
This is a January 2008 update to the similar October 2007 presentation.
The document discusses frameworks for understanding technological change, noting that growth is not just linear or exponential but can also be discontinuous. It argues that a general framework is needed and that technology is immersing other areas in exponential and discontinuous change. Over the next 50 years, there may be changes greater than the Internet that combine linear, exponential, and discontinuous growth patterns.
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The status of key contemporary science and technology research areas that could potentially have an Internet-level impact and a guide to how we think about growth and change.
“5th World: Texas Industry Cluster Initiative and 21st-Century Science, Techn...Jim "Brodie" Brazell
This document discusses emerging technologies and their impact on workforce education. It provides examples of how Texas State Technical College (TSTC) is addressing technological convergence through new programs in areas like computer forensics, hybrid vehicles, fuel cells, and digital games. TSTC publishes reports on these emerging technologies to help guide new curriculum development. The document also discusses leaders in science and technology economic development and potential K-12 educational solutions, like transdisciplinarity.
This document discusses emerging technologies and their impact on workforce education. It provides examples of how Texas State Technical College (TSTC) is addressing technological convergence through new programs in areas like computer forensics, hybrid vehicles, fuel cells, and digital games. TSTC publishes reports on these emerging technologies to help guide new curriculum development. The document also discusses leaders in science and technology economic development and potential K-12 educational solutions, like transdisciplinarity.
This document discusses emerging technologies and their impact on workforce education. It provides examples of programs that Texas State Technical College (TSTC) has developed related to emerging fields like computer forensics, hybrid vehicles, fuel cells, and digital games. TSTC works with other community colleges and universities to develop curriculum in emerging areas aligned with industry clusters in Texas. The document also discusses leaders in science, technology, and economic development and potential K-12 interventions to better prepare students for careers impacted by convergence of technologies.
TSTC Emerging Technologies and the 5th World discusses how science and technology convergence is transforming workforce education. S&T convergence involves the synergistic combination of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and neuroscience. This is fueling rapid technological progress and creating demand for new skills. TSTC is identifying emerging technology programs like nanotechnology, digital games, and fuel cells to prepare students for in-demand jobs. Leaders in economic development are focusing on building technopoles through initiatives in innovation, networking, human capital, and public-private partnerships. Promising K-12 solutions exist through transdisciplinary learning models and online gaming platforms that engage students in science.
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1) The document discusses past and future developments in science and technology over the past 100 years and next 100 years.
2) It highlights major innovations after World War 2 like the establishment of NSF, transistors, computers, and emergence of new technologies like radar and sonar.
3) Looking ahead, it predicts advancements in areas like artificial organs, genetic engineering, automated vehicles, ultra high-speed internet, and AI-assisted design. Storage of renewable energy is also highlighted as a key challenge.
The document discusses the future of technology and outlines different paradigms of growth including linear, exponential, and discontinuous change. It argues that a general framework is needed to understand technological change as growth is not just linear or exponential, but can also be discontinuous. The realm of technology is immersing other areas in exponential and discontinuous change. Over the next fifty years, linear, exponential and possibly discontinuous technological changes may have an even greater impact than the Internet.
Man’s dreams of ‘intelligences and robots’ go back thousands of years to the worship of gods and statues; mythologies: talisman and puppets; people, places and objects with supposed magical and (often) judgemental/punitive abilities. But it wasn’t until the electronic revolution in 1915, accelerated by WWII that we saw the realisation of two game changing-machines: Colossus (Decoding Machine of Bletchley Park) 1943 and ENIAC (Artillery Computation Engine and Nuclear Bomb Design @ The University of Pennsylvania) 1946.
And so in 1950 the modern AI movement was optimistically projecting what machines would be capable of ‘almost anything’ by 1960/70. Unfortunately, there was no understanding of the complexity to be addressed, and all the projections were wildly wrong; leading to a deep trough of disparagement and disillusionment of some 30 years. However, 70 years on and the original AI optimism and projections of what might be had at least been largely achieved with AI outgunning humans at every board and card game including Poker and GO, and of course; general knowledge, medical diagnosis, image and information pattern recognition…
This document discusses various topics related to human bionics and augmentation technologies. It explores the history of prosthetics from ancient times to modern developments in areas like 3D printing of body parts, implanted devices, and mind-controlled prosthetics. Both opportunities and ethical concerns around technologies that enhance human capabilities are examined through polls and diagrams. A holistic, convergent approach is advocated that properly addresses societal needs and implications.
Sequencing Genomics:The New Big Data DriverLarry Smarr
1. Genomic sequencing is driving big data as the cost of sequencing DNA falls faster than Moore's Law and the amount of data produced increases dramatically.
2. The Beijing Genome Institute is the world's largest genomic institute, using over 130 sequencing machines each producing 25 gigabases per day for a total of over 12 petabytes of data storage.
3. Interdisciplinary teams of computer scientists, data analysts, and geneticists are needed to analyze the massive amounts of genomic and metagenomic data being produced to gain insights into human health and disease.
Personal Ingenuity and Emerging TechnologiesPaul Schumann
This is Part 2 of an eight part series of presentations entitled Leadership in the Interactive Age, originally presented over the National Technological University's satellite network in January and February, 1995 by Paul Schumann, Donna Prestwood and Barbara Benjamin. Some of the topical references are out of date but the concepts are still valid. They're probably more apparently valid now then they were at the time of the original production.
Opening talk at the "Interdisciplinary Data Resources to Address the Challenges of Urban Living” Workshop at the Urban Big Data Centre, University of Glasgow, 4 April 2016
In a rapidly changing world of growing demand and diminishing resources merely polishing our old technologies and making industrial processes ever more efficient only delays the onset of crisis and collapse - it does not solve the fundamental problem. Sustainable futures are inextricably linked to radical change and the creation of new technologies based on new materials, processing, shaping, use, reuse, repurposing and recycling at minimal loss.
So we look to the intersection of Artificial Intelligence, Nano and Bio-Technology to demonstrate advances are being made, and where the biggest societal changes will originate. We take a deep dive into the realm of human replacement and augmentation by machine, and the likely implications for individuals, groups, society, companies, institutions and governments.
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#MongoDB #VectorSearch #AI #SemanticSearch #TechInnovation #DataScience #LLM #MachineLearning #SearchTechnology
Generative AI Deep Dive: Advancing from Proof of Concept to ProductionAggregage
Join Maher Hanafi, VP of Engineering at Betterworks, in this new session where he'll share a practical framework to transform Gen AI prototypes into impactful products! He'll delve into the complexities of data collection and management, model selection and optimization, and ensuring security, scalability, and responsible use.
Generative AI Deep Dive: Advancing from Proof of Concept to Production
Future of-technology-1193504568310086-3
1. The Future of Technology Melanie Swan Futurist MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http//www.melanieswan.com Christine Peterson Vice President and Founder Foresight Nanotech Institute Menlo Park, CA 650-289-0860 [email_address] http://www.foresight.org Liana Holmberg and Tess Chu OS Wrangler & IP Gadfly and Developer Linden Lab San Francisco, CA 415-243-9000 [email_address] [email_address] http//www.lindenlab.com
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6. Extensibility of Moore’s Law Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/ Transistors per microprocessor Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors
7. Current semiconductor advancements Source: http://www.siliconvalleysleuth.com/2007/01/a_look_inside_i.html Standard Silicon Transistor High-k + Metal Gate Transistor Historical semiconductors 65nm+ Intel Penryn 45nm chip, shipping fall 2007 Metal Gate High-k Insulator Silicon substrate Drain Drain Source Source Silicon substrate SiO 2 Insulator
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21. Thank you Melanie Swan Futurist MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http//www.melanieswan.com Slides: http//www.melanieswan.com/presentations Provided under an open source Creative Commons 3.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
22. The Future of Technology Melanie Swan Futurist MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http//www.melanieswan.com Christine Peterson Vice President and Founder Foresight Nanotech Institute Menlo Park, CA 650-289-0860 [email_address] http://www.foresight.org Liana Holmberg and Tess Chu OS Wrangler & IP Gadfly and Developer Linden Lab San Francisco, CA 415-243-9000 [email_address] [email_address] http//www.lindenlab.com
Editor's Notes
51, 51, 153
Moore’s Law improvements will likely continue unabated in hardware, even with substrate changes
How the Internet has changed everything example: Efficiency – economics shifting – more resource allocation by market mechanism than by pecking order Tech & comms = exponential/acc chg – for ex: Internet traffic in a new exponentiation with video traffic – YouTube = 7% Comcast traffic
The next mainstream Challenge b/c we can see several possible discontinuities but right now it is hard to predict which will occur first… Also whatever revolution happens first changes a) everything and b) the path to further discontinuities including obviation Convergence Perhaps at no time have we had so many possible coming revolutions – Catch 22 tautology – by definition discontinuous change cannot be predicted, so perhaps the next Internet-like revolution will not be one of these things at all, or maybe it will be some part of these areas that we aren’t able to think about now, ex: at some point cars/computers were predicted, but not for mass everyday use – quantum computing now seems like a gov’t encryption preserve – we aren’t thinking of the wristwatch model or human embedded possibilities VR: phermones, culture and communication occurs at increasing levels of abstraction: desktop/files; 100 IM windows, video gaming, VR worlds, younger generations find less need for true physical presence Nanomedicine – several diseases involve molecular damage inside the cell, such as from free radicals and radiation. Osteoporosis involves calcium loss from bones and is likely treatable by placing chemical and electrical props at the right places in the body Nanotech (molecular mfg atomically correct from bottom up) Nano – pathways biotech, high precision machining, chemical synthesis Many imply a substantial shift in economics: robotics, AI, nano-mfg
Whatever the next Internet or coming revolutions are going to be, they are going to be computation-dependent Next, let’s look at an overview of the current status of computation - HW and SW since this is driving realization of all other technology Information Technologies (of all kinds) double their power (price performance, capacity, bandwidth) each 1-2 years Do we need the exponentially growing hw power? Yes MRO mars reconnaissance orbiter sends back more than 1 TB / week, hi res photos, more than most planetary missions in whole life Visualization Zillionics (kevin kelly) massive info avail; changing science previously hypoth: measurement, now tons of meas. ST: persistence of ICs with new materials, molecular mfg and 3d circuits LT: quantum computers, Analog Quantum computers introduction in 2007 from Dwave Systems. In ten years, possibly quantum computers with multiple thousands to millions of qubits. QC: lots of govt and corporate sponsored research, conferences, papers, activity, early commercialization – ROADMAP
Managing Moore’s Law limitations: Penryn definition changes, 3D molecular ICs; 9/18/07 – Moore says only 10 years left…implicit: in current paradigm
Otellini: http://www.internetnews.com/ent-news/article.php/3700336 Gate closed is 0, current doesn’t flow through Intel’s move to 45nm process technology for its Core microarchitecture Penryn, made possible with the use of high-k and metal transistors "the biggest change in transistor technology since the introduction of polysilicon gate MOS transistors in the late 1960s." The new breakthrough involves the use of hafnium, an unstable silvery metallic element chemically related to zirconium. It is currently used mostly for control rods in nuclear reactors. Hafnium is far denser than silicon and can be etched to even greater degrees of precision, meaning chips can be made still more dense and more powerful.
Trend: graphics built onto the chip, not separately, enables the gaming and 3d simulation and virtual worlds Nehalem, which will succeed Intel's Core microprocessor architecture, will have up to eight cores and each core will be able to process two threads simultaneously, giving each processor the capacity to process up to 16 threads at the same time. http://www.internetnews.com/ent-news/article.php/3700336 Looking even farther down the road, Otellini said Intel will begin production using 32-nanometer process technology in 2009. He proudly showed attendees what he called the world's first 32-nanometer product, a 291-megabit array die with more than 1.9 billion transistors. "This gives us the confidence to build a mainstream microprocessor in two years on this technology," he said, adding that 32-nanometer products will be designed using the second generation of its high-k metal gate transistor technology which replaces silicon dioxide with hafnium as an insulator to produce faster and more energy-efficient chips.
For a seemingly advanced society, we have not been doing a good job on SW Diversity of claims regarding improvement Large project failure No reusable modules (like building and construction industry) Open source ability to maintain and extend dominance over proprietary standards Ada Lovelace is popularly credited as history's first programmer. She was the first to express an algorithm intended for implementation on a computer, Charles Babbage’s analytical engine, in Oct 1842
A SW PROB: Need qqch re: the internal mechanism building new concepts, new machinery and new skills to create new understanding AI/human will be equivalent; transfer our software from meat-based processor to more capacious hardware Some assumptions in the calcs; also since not 100% human brain focused on any task, only need 1/1000 the capacity to simulate which we do have Important point is that the HW is not there yet; SW lagging even farther behind but with another few cycles could have adequate simulation power Most think ~2015; ccortex The 360-teraFLOPS machine handles many challenging scientific simulations, including ab initio molecular dynamics; three-dimensional (3D) dislocation dynamics; and turbulence, shock, and instability phenomena in hydrodynamics. It is also a computational science research machine for evaluating advanced computer architectures. Will we have intelligent machines that can solve any problem or will we hack the brain to improve human intell; prob combo both
intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions which maximizes its chances of success Applications: pattern recognition, robotics Problems: the lack of raw computer power, the intractable combinatorial explosion of algorithms, the difficulty of representing commonsense knowledge and doing commonsense reasoning, the incredible difficulty of perception and motion and the failings of logic.
Definition: not conducting work at nanoscale or even 2d atom placing, 3d molecular/atomic specific placement from the bottom up; manipulating atoms as we do bits Water bridge: http://www.physorg.com/news110191847.html Manipulating atoms as we do bits: Discrete entities handled rapidly with digital control to reliably form new patterns Molecule, Atom? Atomic precision about one angstrom, 1/10 nm Molecular mill: www.e-drexler.com/p/04/04/0512molMills.html
Lots of plastic 3-d printing at the moment Public health improves or degrades? Consumerism increases/decreases; matter as entertainment; period decorations and events; SL b/c RL Regulation re: production of weapons, disease, genetic material, etc.
Personalized medicine is the use of detailed information about a patient's genotype or level of gene expression and a patient's clinical data in order to select a medication, therapy or preventative measure that is particularly suited to that patient Hall: Patching up/fixing genetic deficiency vs. augmentation, the same thing depending on where you are on the scale of human variation; Intelligence, ‘beauty’/symmetry, height; Susceptibility to sunburn; Oxygen in cells: anemic vs. super-athletic capability. Enhancement rationale matters? (e.g.; help Mt. Everest rescue workers (respirocytes) vs. beauty (vanity) Digital People: from Bionic humans to androids by Sidney Perkowitz 2004 - 10%? Americans are augmented w. non-biological machinery embedded – terminology: cyborg/robosapien (scary) or pacemaker, diabetic pump, hip replacement, corneal implant, hearing aid, cochlear implant, prosthetic limbs, etc. Augmenting intelligence-it’s a wonder what paper & pencil will do for multiplying 10 digit numbers
Human life is arbitrarily limited at present
bioMEMS blood-borne devices that deliver hormones such as insulin have been demonstrated in animals Dr. Ron Kahn, Joslin Diabetes Center, id the fat insulin receptor (FIR) gene – controls accumulation of fat by the fat cells
Increasing demand for data display visually and in 3D, already seen in ubiquity of streaming video 3 rd annual American Cancer Society Relay For Life - $90,000 raised – 40 teams Video games (9m World of Warcraft players), Second Life (9 million residents 40,000 concurrency, $1m daily economy) Science 2.0 – simulation replaces experiment, hypothesis post-facto BCI – brain computer interface with SL; headpiece with electrodes sensing motor cortex movement; think about walking Geospatialization of data, Google earth KML, nasa world view, VIS demand; aug reality Virtual reality 2.0: more immersive, incorporating biofeedback, touch, taste, smell
Spaceport America (near Las Cruces NM, 2008-2010 construction), UAE Earth is just an 8000 mi wide space ship with 10,000 feet of life support; get out of diapers and colonize other parts of spaces X Prize Foundation announcing automotive prize in early 2008; clean fuel car that can reach 100 mpg Elevator climbing (power beaming) & tether strength competition– used to have the cranes for tether climbing at the air show, but 400 foot crane not a good idea… Virgin Galactic has sold 100 of its $200,000 sub-orbital flight slots NASA says they spend $6,000 per pound but other estimates suggest real cost is $20,000-$35,000/pound, needs to be about $500/pound NASA Centennial Challenges
The next mainstream Challenge b/c we can see several possible discontinuities but right now it is hard to predict which will occur first… Also whatever revolution happens first changes a) everything and b) the path to further discontinuities including obviation Convergence Perhaps at no time have we had so many possible coming revolutions – Catch 22 tautology – by definition discontinuous change cannot be predicted, so perhaps the next Internet-like revolution will not be one of these things at all, or maybe it will be some part of these areas that we aren’t able to think about now, ex: at some point cars/computers were predicted, but not for mass everyday use – quantum computing now seems like a gov’t encryption preserve – we aren’t thinking of the wristwatch model or human embedded possibilities VR: phermpnes, culture and communication occurs at increasing levels of abstraction: desktop/files; 100 IM windows, video gaming, VR worlds, younger generations find less need for true physical presence Nanomedicine – several diseases involve molecular damage inside the cell, such as from free radicals and radiation. Osteoporosis involves calcium loss from bones and is likely treatable by placing chemical and electrical props at the right places in the body Nanotech (molecular mfg atomically correct from bottom up) Nano – pathways biotech, high precision machining, chemical synthesis Many imply a substantial shift in economics: robotics, AI, nano-mfg
Moore’s Law improvements will likely continue unabated in hardware, even with substrate changes