The document provides minutes from a Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on June 18-19, 2013. It lists the attendees and discusses developments in the US and global economies. The committee reviewed the Federal Reserve's strategy for normalizing monetary policy and their balance sheet. Staff presented reviews of the economic and financial situations, noting moderate economic growth and improvement in labor markets, but inflation remained subdued. Financial markets became more volatile as investors revised up their expectations for future interest rates.
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
Sticking to forecasts: Fed summer hike, Dollar hat-trick still on the cards, ...Olivier Desbarres
The Federal Reserve’s minutes of its 27th April policy meeting released last week set the tone for a possible June or July rate hike. On balance, recent US and global data are unlikely to have fundamentally changed the Federal Reserve’s view that a summer hike may be appropriate.
This is line with my long-held forecast that the Federal Reserve would likely hike once or twice this year, with the first hike in June. I recently updated my forecast to a July hike as it gives the Fed more time to assess US and global data and the result of the UK referendum on 23rd June. The risk is that the very threat of a hike derails financial markets sufficiently for the Federal Reserve to postpone its second-hike-in-a-decade to later this year.
Surprisingly, this message was seemingly absent from the wafer-thin policy statement the Federal Reserve issued on 27th April.
I maintain my January forecast that the dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)[1] may well end the year slightly higher, propelled by the resilience of the US economy and the Federal Reserve going against the global trend of easier (or at least easy) monetary policy.
Conversely, the recent modest weakening in emerging market currencies is likely to extend, as per my prediction in early April. Macro data are too weak to reassure markets that any economy can single-handedly steady slowing global growth but strong enough for the Federal Reserve to force markets to reprice the risk of tighter US policy.
My core scenario has been that the UK would vote to remain in the EU and, if anything, that conviction has strengthened following recent surveys. The lifting of this uncertainty would see a reasonably competitive sterling appreciate, albeit modestly given the UK’s underlying structural deficiencies.
The document provides an update on the fixed income markets in April 2010. It discusses the problems facing Greece and other European countries, and the impact on the euro. Domestically, most economic data was positive and the housing market showed signs of recovery. Treasury yields fell during the month due to concerns around Europe. Spreads tightened further for corporate bonds.
Over the past thirty years the neutral real interest rate across developed economies has declined substantially. Evidence suggests that secular rather than transitory factors are driving its decline. A lower neutral interest rate implies that the cumulative amount of tightening required for monetary policy to become neutral is much smaller than previously thought.
The Hitchhiker's Guide to Yellen's Speech
We spent all week waiting anxiously to see what Our Glorious Leader would say only to get a confused mash-up of central bank water-cooler conversation.
If you want to know what she really said - and, more importantly, didn't say - you might like to read this translation.
Domestic stocks rose in November while international stocks declined. Within the US, small caps outperformed large caps and value outperformed growth. Bond returns were mostly negative. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. Economic growth was moderate. Global markets reacted negatively to Trump's election victory.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
The document summarizes key points from a weekly report by RBC Wealth Management on global economic and market developments:
1) Major central banks like the Fed, ECB, and BoE all met this week, with the Fed hiking rates as expected but the ECB and BoE leaving policy unchanged; the Fed projected slightly lower inflation but higher growth and lower unemployment for 2018.
2) Small business optimism in the U.S. reached its highest level since 1983 on expectations of tax reform and stronger economic conditions, though plans to raise wages remained muted; strong retail sales in November also point to robust Q4 economic growth.
3) Central banks are still seen as facing downside risks that could keep
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
Sticking to forecasts: Fed summer hike, Dollar hat-trick still on the cards, ...Olivier Desbarres
The Federal Reserve’s minutes of its 27th April policy meeting released last week set the tone for a possible June or July rate hike. On balance, recent US and global data are unlikely to have fundamentally changed the Federal Reserve’s view that a summer hike may be appropriate.
This is line with my long-held forecast that the Federal Reserve would likely hike once or twice this year, with the first hike in June. I recently updated my forecast to a July hike as it gives the Fed more time to assess US and global data and the result of the UK referendum on 23rd June. The risk is that the very threat of a hike derails financial markets sufficiently for the Federal Reserve to postpone its second-hike-in-a-decade to later this year.
Surprisingly, this message was seemingly absent from the wafer-thin policy statement the Federal Reserve issued on 27th April.
I maintain my January forecast that the dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)[1] may well end the year slightly higher, propelled by the resilience of the US economy and the Federal Reserve going against the global trend of easier (or at least easy) monetary policy.
Conversely, the recent modest weakening in emerging market currencies is likely to extend, as per my prediction in early April. Macro data are too weak to reassure markets that any economy can single-handedly steady slowing global growth but strong enough for the Federal Reserve to force markets to reprice the risk of tighter US policy.
My core scenario has been that the UK would vote to remain in the EU and, if anything, that conviction has strengthened following recent surveys. The lifting of this uncertainty would see a reasonably competitive sterling appreciate, albeit modestly given the UK’s underlying structural deficiencies.
The document provides an update on the fixed income markets in April 2010. It discusses the problems facing Greece and other European countries, and the impact on the euro. Domestically, most economic data was positive and the housing market showed signs of recovery. Treasury yields fell during the month due to concerns around Europe. Spreads tightened further for corporate bonds.
Over the past thirty years the neutral real interest rate across developed economies has declined substantially. Evidence suggests that secular rather than transitory factors are driving its decline. A lower neutral interest rate implies that the cumulative amount of tightening required for monetary policy to become neutral is much smaller than previously thought.
The Hitchhiker's Guide to Yellen's Speech
We spent all week waiting anxiously to see what Our Glorious Leader would say only to get a confused mash-up of central bank water-cooler conversation.
If you want to know what she really said - and, more importantly, didn't say - you might like to read this translation.
Domestic stocks rose in November while international stocks declined. Within the US, small caps outperformed large caps and value outperformed growth. Bond returns were mostly negative. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. Economic growth was moderate. Global markets reacted negatively to Trump's election victory.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
The document summarizes key points from a weekly report by RBC Wealth Management on global economic and market developments:
1) Major central banks like the Fed, ECB, and BoE all met this week, with the Fed hiking rates as expected but the ECB and BoE leaving policy unchanged; the Fed projected slightly lower inflation but higher growth and lower unemployment for 2018.
2) Small business optimism in the U.S. reached its highest level since 1983 on expectations of tax reform and stronger economic conditions, though plans to raise wages remained muted; strong retail sales in November also point to robust Q4 economic growth.
3) Central banks are still seen as facing downside risks that could keep
Cushman & Wakefield's white paper on the Feds decision Matthew Marshall
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in almost 10 years, citing a strengthening labor market and economic growth as reasons for the rate hike. While inflation remains below the 2% target, job growth has rebounded in recent months. The rate increase is largely symbolic and monetary policy will remain accommodative. Commercial real estate prices are not strongly correlated with interest rates and are more influenced by economic growth and job creation. Continued economic expansion is expected to support further increases in commercial real estate values and rents.
The Fed kept rates on hold yesterday – pretty much a done deal – and its statement yesterday following its two-day policy meeting was very short on new insights.
But it was in line with my expectation that while the Fed would present a marginally less dovish assessment of the global economy, it would paint a still cloudy picture of the US and nurse the recently faltering rally in global risk appetite. US equities closed up 0.3% yesterday and 2, 5 and 10yr US treasury yields are down 6-10bps since Tuesday.
The Fed faces seven rocky weeks ahead of its 15th June meeting. It will likely want to keep the door ajar for a hike and will therefore not want to see US yields break out of range. But the market’s violent reaction today to the BoJ’s unchanged monetary policy is also a stark reminder that an overly-hawkish Fed could derail global risk appetite and in turn delay any Fed hikes.
With this in mind, my core scenario of a June is likely to be tested in coming weeks and the risk remains that flat-lining emerging market currencies will come under pressure.
This document provides an overview of government economic policy tools used by central banks and finance ministries. It discusses fiscal policy tools like taxation and government spending and how they can be used to stimulate or contract the economy. It also explains monetary policy tools controlled by central banks, including interest rates, required reserve ratios, and open market operations to influence money supply and achieve goals of steady growth and low inflation. Specific policy examples from the US, UK, Japan, and Europe are also mentioned.
The Bank of Japan's Tankan report showed business confidence fell for the fourth straight quarter to the lowest level since 2010, suggesting Japan's economy is at risk of contraction. Manufacturers reported weak business conditions and forecasts, as the strong yen compounds the negative effects of China's slowdown and Europe's crisis. The political dispute with China over disputed islands also poses risks to Japanese exports, especially autos and electronics. With falling domestic demand and a strong currency, the central bank is expected to further ease monetary policy at its next meeting to weaken the yen and support the economy.
This document analyzes the relationship between tax composition and long-run economic growth using a dataset of 69 countries from 1970-2009. It finds that increasing income taxes while reducing consumption and property taxes is associated with slower growth. Specifically, social security contributions and personal income taxes have a stronger negative effect on growth than corporate income taxes. Conversely, shifting taxes from income to property taxes or increasing VAT/sales taxes instead of income taxes is positively associated with growth. When dividing the sample by income level, high and middle-income countries show similar results to the full sample, but results are less robust for low-income countries possibly due to weaker tax administration.
Ivo Pezzuto - "FED BITES THE BULLET - Implements First Rate Hike in Nearly a ...Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
The US Federal Reserve finally bites the bullet, increasing the
FFR – a key short-term interest rate – by quarter of a per cent.
With this, the regulator has clearly signaled that it might take
similar actions in future, if need arises, to take the economy
towards full recovery.
The Mongolian economy experienced strong growth in the first quarter of 2012, with GDP increasing 16.7% compared to the same period last year. However, the state budget deficit also rose as spending increased more quickly than revenues. Additionally, the foreign trade deficit widened by 74% due to rising imports. Inflation remains high at 15.4% despite falling slightly, as food and housing prices increased substantially. With the upcoming elections, further spending increases threaten to drive inflation even higher in the coming months.
Do you or your users need information on the South's unemployment, housing and more? We’ll share strategies to enhance expertise with finding essential resources about these timely topics. (Sponsored by GLA GIIG.) Presented at GaCOMO12 by Patricia Kenly and Bette Finn.
1) The document provides an analysis of upcoming economic data and events that could impact markets the following week, including US and Eurozone GDP growth estimates, PMI reports, and central bank meetings from the ECB, Riksbank, and BoJ.
2) It is expected that the global business cycle will continue to weaken as trade tensions persist between the US and China. Eurozone PMIs are forecasted to decline further.
3) The main events covered are the ECB meeting on Thursday, where no policy changes are anticipated, and the Riksbank meeting on Thursday, where the bank may signal a delay in further rate hikes.
Baring calamitous February inflation and retail sales data, I expect the Fed to hike rates 25bp on 15th March for the second time in three months, in line with market pricing and my mid-February forecast.
While underlying US inflation has only edged up slowly and payroll growth remains modest, other US data have been reasonably buoyant. The pool of available labour continues to grind lower and regional indicators, national confidence surveys and housing data pushed higher in January-February.
Moreover, normally dovish FOMC members have not made a strong case for a March pause and, along with Chairperson Yellen, have seemingly for now at least not made the Fed hiking cycle conditional on Trump delivering on his promise to loosen fiscal policy.
The big question is what next for the Fed. Its updated forecasts and dot-chart and Yellen’s question-and-answer session will undoubtedly provide some extra colour.
But it may be a little premature for the 17 FOMC members to materially change their forecast for the appropriate pace of hikes for 2017, which stands at 74bps – broadly in line with current market pricing.
The risk to my turn-of-the-year forecast that the Fed may only deliver two hikes this year is probably to the upside. But if the Fed is going to hike once a quarter, it will want to prepare markets conditioned by years of hikes far more modest than predicated by the Fed.
In France, potential presidential candidates have only a week left to meet the Constitutional requirements to become an official candidate in the first round.
My core scenario remains that Fillon will remain in the presidential race, that the first and second rounds due on 23rd April and 7th May will not be pushed back, that Le Pen and Macron will likely make it to the second round run-off and that Le Pen will lose the second round whether she faces Macron or Fillon.
But one should at least entertain the possibility, even if remote, that Jean-Luc Mélenchon, currently fifth in the polls on 12%, will not meet the requirements to be a candidate in the first round – namely the written support of 500 elected sponsors – which could in turn boost support for Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon.
Moreover, it is still conceivable, albeit unlikely, that Fillon will make it to the second round or conversely pull out of the race with Alain Juppé filling his place. Finally, the possibility of this year’s elections being postponed, while extremely slim, merits discussion.
Most recently, the strengthening economy has improved the budgetary outlooks of most state and local governments, leading them to reduce their pace of fiscal tightening. At the same time, though, fiscal policy at the federal level has become significantly more restrictive. In particular, the expiration of the payroll tax cut, the enactment of tax increases, the effects of the budget caps on discretionary spending, the onset of the sequestration, and the declines in defense spending for overseas military operations are expected, collectively, to exert a substantial drag on the economy this year. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the deficit reduction policies in current law will slow the pace of real GDP growth by about 1-1/2 percentage points during 2013, relative to what it would have been otherwise.
The document discusses the following:
1) Indian markets performed well in May with the Nifty 50 index rising 3.4% and outperforming global markets. Mid and small cap indices fell but have outperformed so far in 2017.
2) Inflation continued to surprise on the downside, falling to 2.99% in April. Wholesale inflation also declined and core inflation is at a series low. Lower global commodity prices and a favorable base will likely keep inflation low.
3) The RBI's monetary policy was dovish in line with lower growth and inflation data. While rates were kept unchanged, the tone and forecasts signal potential future rate cuts to boost the economy.
The Governor of Latvijas Banka held a press conference in December to discuss fiscal policy and the national budget. He emphasized that 2017 will be a crucial time to establish a reasonable fiscal policy and balance the budget. A budget for 2017 should ensure stability, be balanced, and undergo careful review of expenses through zero-based budgeting. While the 2016 budget has issues, attention must now turn to improving the budget drafting process for 2017. Stability is needed for the business environment, investment, and lending. A review of the tax system is supported but taxes should not be manipulated for at least one election cycle. Living with budget deficits leads to higher public debt and taxes over time in a vicious cycle. Structural reforms in education
This report analyzes recent inflation data and forecasts inflation for Hungary over the next few years:
1. Inflation in Hungary was 2.5% in September, below most forecasts, due to a large drop in textbook prices. Underlying inflation indicators show little change.
2. The report forecasts inflation to remain below the central bank's 3% target through 2019. Lower fuel and food prices alongside government measures to reduce costs are expected to keep inflation modest.
3. Strong economic growth has not led to higher underlying inflation as expected, likely due to faster productivity growth and moderating wage growth. Inflation is projected to remain low, allowing the central bank to keep monetary policy loose.
This document provides a summary of revisions made to estimates of U.S. economic output (GDP) from 2003 to the first quarter of 2011 as part of an annual revision process. Key points:
- Real GDP growth for 2007-2010 was revised down by an average annual rate of 0.3 percentage points. Growth during and after the recession was also revised down slightly.
- Revisions were generally small before 2008 but saw larger changes from 2008-2011, such as GDP declining 0.3 percentage points in 2008 rather than a slight increase.
- Price indexes like PCE and core PCE inflation were revised up slightly from 1.4-1.5% to 1.6-1.
Economic Indicators for week of July 26-30NAR Research
1) The weekly economic forecast from NAR Research showed stable or slightly improved predictions for GDP growth and unemployment through 2010, with the mortgage rate expected to decline slightly.
2) New home sales rebounded in June from May's low, though remained below year-ago levels, as low mortgage rates enticed buyers but high unemployment discouraged many.
3) The first estimate of Q2 GDP growth was 2.4%, an improvement from Q1, driven partly by the homebuyer tax credit boosting residential investment.
The FOMC document discusses:
1) Economic activity has continued to strengthen and the labor market is stabilizing, though unemployment remains high and income and housing wealth are constrained.
2) Business spending on equipment has increased while housing construction remains depressed.
3) Inflation is expected to remain subdued due to economic slack and stable long-term expectations.
4) The FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate target at 0-0.25% and expects rates to stay low for an extended period due to economic conditions.
Indian Government Had Declared to create 100 Smart Cities in India. But, there has not been any white paper or Vision Document. Any Cut Copy and Paste of these document for India is not going to be of Help. The Piece meal operation and political slogans are not going to help
Shri Gajanan Maharaj Is the Siddha Yogi. there Billions of Devotees. The Gajanan Maharaj Prathishtan does an excellent service to the devotees and is inspired by Shri Yogi Gajanan Maharaj.
This for the benefit of All
Indian Government Passed Coal Mines Bill 2015, In March 2015. The Coal Mines which were the Meat and Bones of Corruption in Indian Economy Were Auctioned in March 2015, Under the Proviso of the Bill. The Indian Supreme Court has asked the Indian Government to Bring out Norms and Auction the Mines.
Cushman & Wakefield's white paper on the Feds decision Matthew Marshall
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in almost 10 years, citing a strengthening labor market and economic growth as reasons for the rate hike. While inflation remains below the 2% target, job growth has rebounded in recent months. The rate increase is largely symbolic and monetary policy will remain accommodative. Commercial real estate prices are not strongly correlated with interest rates and are more influenced by economic growth and job creation. Continued economic expansion is expected to support further increases in commercial real estate values and rents.
The Fed kept rates on hold yesterday – pretty much a done deal – and its statement yesterday following its two-day policy meeting was very short on new insights.
But it was in line with my expectation that while the Fed would present a marginally less dovish assessment of the global economy, it would paint a still cloudy picture of the US and nurse the recently faltering rally in global risk appetite. US equities closed up 0.3% yesterday and 2, 5 and 10yr US treasury yields are down 6-10bps since Tuesday.
The Fed faces seven rocky weeks ahead of its 15th June meeting. It will likely want to keep the door ajar for a hike and will therefore not want to see US yields break out of range. But the market’s violent reaction today to the BoJ’s unchanged monetary policy is also a stark reminder that an overly-hawkish Fed could derail global risk appetite and in turn delay any Fed hikes.
With this in mind, my core scenario of a June is likely to be tested in coming weeks and the risk remains that flat-lining emerging market currencies will come under pressure.
This document provides an overview of government economic policy tools used by central banks and finance ministries. It discusses fiscal policy tools like taxation and government spending and how they can be used to stimulate or contract the economy. It also explains monetary policy tools controlled by central banks, including interest rates, required reserve ratios, and open market operations to influence money supply and achieve goals of steady growth and low inflation. Specific policy examples from the US, UK, Japan, and Europe are also mentioned.
The Bank of Japan's Tankan report showed business confidence fell for the fourth straight quarter to the lowest level since 2010, suggesting Japan's economy is at risk of contraction. Manufacturers reported weak business conditions and forecasts, as the strong yen compounds the negative effects of China's slowdown and Europe's crisis. The political dispute with China over disputed islands also poses risks to Japanese exports, especially autos and electronics. With falling domestic demand and a strong currency, the central bank is expected to further ease monetary policy at its next meeting to weaken the yen and support the economy.
This document analyzes the relationship between tax composition and long-run economic growth using a dataset of 69 countries from 1970-2009. It finds that increasing income taxes while reducing consumption and property taxes is associated with slower growth. Specifically, social security contributions and personal income taxes have a stronger negative effect on growth than corporate income taxes. Conversely, shifting taxes from income to property taxes or increasing VAT/sales taxes instead of income taxes is positively associated with growth. When dividing the sample by income level, high and middle-income countries show similar results to the full sample, but results are less robust for low-income countries possibly due to weaker tax administration.
Ivo Pezzuto - "FED BITES THE BULLET - Implements First Rate Hike in Nearly a ...Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
The US Federal Reserve finally bites the bullet, increasing the
FFR – a key short-term interest rate – by quarter of a per cent.
With this, the regulator has clearly signaled that it might take
similar actions in future, if need arises, to take the economy
towards full recovery.
The Mongolian economy experienced strong growth in the first quarter of 2012, with GDP increasing 16.7% compared to the same period last year. However, the state budget deficit also rose as spending increased more quickly than revenues. Additionally, the foreign trade deficit widened by 74% due to rising imports. Inflation remains high at 15.4% despite falling slightly, as food and housing prices increased substantially. With the upcoming elections, further spending increases threaten to drive inflation even higher in the coming months.
Do you or your users need information on the South's unemployment, housing and more? We’ll share strategies to enhance expertise with finding essential resources about these timely topics. (Sponsored by GLA GIIG.) Presented at GaCOMO12 by Patricia Kenly and Bette Finn.
1) The document provides an analysis of upcoming economic data and events that could impact markets the following week, including US and Eurozone GDP growth estimates, PMI reports, and central bank meetings from the ECB, Riksbank, and BoJ.
2) It is expected that the global business cycle will continue to weaken as trade tensions persist between the US and China. Eurozone PMIs are forecasted to decline further.
3) The main events covered are the ECB meeting on Thursday, where no policy changes are anticipated, and the Riksbank meeting on Thursday, where the bank may signal a delay in further rate hikes.
Baring calamitous February inflation and retail sales data, I expect the Fed to hike rates 25bp on 15th March for the second time in three months, in line with market pricing and my mid-February forecast.
While underlying US inflation has only edged up slowly and payroll growth remains modest, other US data have been reasonably buoyant. The pool of available labour continues to grind lower and regional indicators, national confidence surveys and housing data pushed higher in January-February.
Moreover, normally dovish FOMC members have not made a strong case for a March pause and, along with Chairperson Yellen, have seemingly for now at least not made the Fed hiking cycle conditional on Trump delivering on his promise to loosen fiscal policy.
The big question is what next for the Fed. Its updated forecasts and dot-chart and Yellen’s question-and-answer session will undoubtedly provide some extra colour.
But it may be a little premature for the 17 FOMC members to materially change their forecast for the appropriate pace of hikes for 2017, which stands at 74bps – broadly in line with current market pricing.
The risk to my turn-of-the-year forecast that the Fed may only deliver two hikes this year is probably to the upside. But if the Fed is going to hike once a quarter, it will want to prepare markets conditioned by years of hikes far more modest than predicated by the Fed.
In France, potential presidential candidates have only a week left to meet the Constitutional requirements to become an official candidate in the first round.
My core scenario remains that Fillon will remain in the presidential race, that the first and second rounds due on 23rd April and 7th May will not be pushed back, that Le Pen and Macron will likely make it to the second round run-off and that Le Pen will lose the second round whether she faces Macron or Fillon.
But one should at least entertain the possibility, even if remote, that Jean-Luc Mélenchon, currently fifth in the polls on 12%, will not meet the requirements to be a candidate in the first round – namely the written support of 500 elected sponsors – which could in turn boost support for Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon.
Moreover, it is still conceivable, albeit unlikely, that Fillon will make it to the second round or conversely pull out of the race with Alain Juppé filling his place. Finally, the possibility of this year’s elections being postponed, while extremely slim, merits discussion.
Most recently, the strengthening economy has improved the budgetary outlooks of most state and local governments, leading them to reduce their pace of fiscal tightening. At the same time, though, fiscal policy at the federal level has become significantly more restrictive. In particular, the expiration of the payroll tax cut, the enactment of tax increases, the effects of the budget caps on discretionary spending, the onset of the sequestration, and the declines in defense spending for overseas military operations are expected, collectively, to exert a substantial drag on the economy this year. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the deficit reduction policies in current law will slow the pace of real GDP growth by about 1-1/2 percentage points during 2013, relative to what it would have been otherwise.
The document discusses the following:
1) Indian markets performed well in May with the Nifty 50 index rising 3.4% and outperforming global markets. Mid and small cap indices fell but have outperformed so far in 2017.
2) Inflation continued to surprise on the downside, falling to 2.99% in April. Wholesale inflation also declined and core inflation is at a series low. Lower global commodity prices and a favorable base will likely keep inflation low.
3) The RBI's monetary policy was dovish in line with lower growth and inflation data. While rates were kept unchanged, the tone and forecasts signal potential future rate cuts to boost the economy.
The Governor of Latvijas Banka held a press conference in December to discuss fiscal policy and the national budget. He emphasized that 2017 will be a crucial time to establish a reasonable fiscal policy and balance the budget. A budget for 2017 should ensure stability, be balanced, and undergo careful review of expenses through zero-based budgeting. While the 2016 budget has issues, attention must now turn to improving the budget drafting process for 2017. Stability is needed for the business environment, investment, and lending. A review of the tax system is supported but taxes should not be manipulated for at least one election cycle. Living with budget deficits leads to higher public debt and taxes over time in a vicious cycle. Structural reforms in education
This report analyzes recent inflation data and forecasts inflation for Hungary over the next few years:
1. Inflation in Hungary was 2.5% in September, below most forecasts, due to a large drop in textbook prices. Underlying inflation indicators show little change.
2. The report forecasts inflation to remain below the central bank's 3% target through 2019. Lower fuel and food prices alongside government measures to reduce costs are expected to keep inflation modest.
3. Strong economic growth has not led to higher underlying inflation as expected, likely due to faster productivity growth and moderating wage growth. Inflation is projected to remain low, allowing the central bank to keep monetary policy loose.
This document provides a summary of revisions made to estimates of U.S. economic output (GDP) from 2003 to the first quarter of 2011 as part of an annual revision process. Key points:
- Real GDP growth for 2007-2010 was revised down by an average annual rate of 0.3 percentage points. Growth during and after the recession was also revised down slightly.
- Revisions were generally small before 2008 but saw larger changes from 2008-2011, such as GDP declining 0.3 percentage points in 2008 rather than a slight increase.
- Price indexes like PCE and core PCE inflation were revised up slightly from 1.4-1.5% to 1.6-1.
Economic Indicators for week of July 26-30NAR Research
1) The weekly economic forecast from NAR Research showed stable or slightly improved predictions for GDP growth and unemployment through 2010, with the mortgage rate expected to decline slightly.
2) New home sales rebounded in June from May's low, though remained below year-ago levels, as low mortgage rates enticed buyers but high unemployment discouraged many.
3) The first estimate of Q2 GDP growth was 2.4%, an improvement from Q1, driven partly by the homebuyer tax credit boosting residential investment.
The FOMC document discusses:
1) Economic activity has continued to strengthen and the labor market is stabilizing, though unemployment remains high and income and housing wealth are constrained.
2) Business spending on equipment has increased while housing construction remains depressed.
3) Inflation is expected to remain subdued due to economic slack and stable long-term expectations.
4) The FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate target at 0-0.25% and expects rates to stay low for an extended period due to economic conditions.
Indian Government Had Declared to create 100 Smart Cities in India. But, there has not been any white paper or Vision Document. Any Cut Copy and Paste of these document for India is not going to be of Help. The Piece meal operation and political slogans are not going to help
Shri Gajanan Maharaj Is the Siddha Yogi. there Billions of Devotees. The Gajanan Maharaj Prathishtan does an excellent service to the devotees and is inspired by Shri Yogi Gajanan Maharaj.
This for the benefit of All
Indian Government Passed Coal Mines Bill 2015, In March 2015. The Coal Mines which were the Meat and Bones of Corruption in Indian Economy Were Auctioned in March 2015, Under the Proviso of the Bill. The Indian Supreme Court has asked the Indian Government to Bring out Norms and Auction the Mines.
Dr Raghuram Rajan, RBI Governor Speech At NewYorkatul baride
Dr Rajan has Alluded the Extended Rate Cut Regime by FOMC In USA, Now, Followed by EU and Likely China. Never Forgetting being Governor of Central Bank pressed concern being economist. His Warning is Stark and Clear.
This document provides an overview of India's mining sector, including its structure, role in the economy, legislative framework, initiatives, administration, taxation, exploration status, production, consumption, and foreign trade. Key points include:
- The mining sector provides raw materials to industries like power, steel, cement, and contributes around 2.5-2.8% to India's GDP.
- Major minerals are regulated by the central Ministry of Mines, while minor minerals fall under state governments. Attached and subordinate offices include the Geological Survey of India and Indian Bureau of Mines.
- India produces 88 minerals and has significant reserves. The sector employs over 5 lakh workers and contributes substantially to exports and imports
Indian Growth under Rising Risks Show Financial Stability Report June 2016atul baride
RBI Detail Financial Stability Report shows that, Growth is Stagnant and Corporate Indebtedness ability to service Banking Debt weakening daily. The Indian Public sector Banks Return on Assets has fallen to mere 0.4 , ROE 4.8 , and Net Interest Income to 8.3 from 15.8 in 2012. The Iron and Steel , Telecom, Construction, Electricity, Transport are enlarging systemic risks. While Macro Economic and Institutional Risk have risen. The Housing Price and Price Indices showing Significant divergence.
My Comments : Britain exit from Euro is not accounted. And, Slow down in IT is not considered. Also, Slowing Global Growth particularly China and now EU is not considered. The Rise 45 % Investors from Small Town indicates Equity Markets is taken as Positive Dispersion, While it shows that Indian Equity market is increasingly in ' Weaker Hands ' .
The Big Money should surely ' Press Pause Button ' and Cash is going to be King
Jai prakash Associate Court Order For Fixed Deposit Repayment atul baride
This the court case order in Case of Fixed Deposit Investor Refund of the Investment. Jaiprakash Associate and others are old players in company FD Market. The Few Percentile of higher interest attracted many investor
Reliance Industries Continued its Strides in Carbon Chemicals and its components. The Media Venture CNBC TV 18 , Viacom, Colors added new dimensions to the diversity, achieved by the Retail Stores. All this Pointing a new chapter in 2016-2017 as JIO comes on Board.
The June 2009 FOMC meeting occurred amid improved yet still negative economic conditions. Financial markets had strengthened with rising stock prices and reduced corporate debt spreads. Interest rates in the markets were rising, which the FOMC debated could signal either tighter credit or an improving economy. The Fed staff forecast a contraction in Q2 GDP but growth returning in Q3, and unemployment peaking that year. Inflation was projected to remain subdued due to economic slack. The Fed maintained its large scale asset purchases (LSAP) while monitoring the impacts of interest rate movements and its expanding balance sheet on the economy and inflation outlook.
The document summarizes the June 2009 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Key discussion points included the economic and financial outlook, the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchase program, liquidity facilities, an exit strategy, and inflation and output gaps. The Committee considered three policy alternatives and ultimately chose to keep the size of the large-scale asset purchase program unchanged. Major speeches given during this period addressed definitions of stability and credit easing measures. Retrospective analysis found that the bank stress tests helped restore confidence and 2009 marked a turning point in the crisis.
FOMC Minutes contain the minutes of special Meeting to support Europe. The FED notes slowing growth, weakness in Euope and developing economies and sluggish US growth
Duff & Phelps' Capital Markets Insights - Spring 2018 report states that leveraging costs and structures showed signs of increasing volatility in the first quarter of 2018, as markets reacted to rising economic growth, inflation concerns and trade tensions. Read the report for more detail.
BU 701Professor Linda MeltzerAssignment # 1Summe.docxhartrobert670
BU 701 Professor Linda Meltzer
Assignment # 1 Summer 2015
Topic: The Fed's Impact on the Financial Markets
Due Date: June 11th
In Module 2, we are focused on the Federal Reserve: its organzation, its main role, goals and targets, and its tools. For this assignment, you will look for and review:
· Latest FOMC Federal Open Market Committee, the policy making body of the Fed) minutes which is a detailed transcript of what happened at the last Fed meeting, and staff and Governor's outlook for financial markets, economy and future expectations. The latest minutes as of now is from April 28-29 meeting and was released in May. Many ways to find it. Make sure you look at whole transcript and not the summary.
· Find latest speech or comments made by Chair Yellen AFTER the meeting in April. She speaks frequently and CNBC picks up her comments so should be very easy to find. Also, find what analysts have said about Yellen's comments.
In a 1-2 page writeup, discuss:
1) key economic conditions that the FED is looking closely at and its significance to their policy as to whether they are going to raise interest rates in 2015;
2) From your reading of the material, how does the FED's action impact financial markets (bonds, stocks, money markets);
3) Has Chair Yellen's recent comments (and feel free to explore other members of the FED eg Gov. Brainerd who has spoken to CNBC other day) changed from last meeting? How?; and
4) You can use any opinions written by financial experts (you can find their analysis on CNBC, CNN, Marketwatch et al) just make sure to footnote or provide sources.
Note: As this is a writing intensive class, please take care with writing grammatically correct, capitalize where needed, and full sentences. No slang.
Grading Guide: Clinical Assessment in Mental Health Centers Newspaper Article
PSYCH/655 Version 2
1
Grading Guide
Clinical Assessment in Mental Health Centers Newspaper Article
This assignment is due in Week Six.
Content
60 Percent
Points Earned
X/6
· Discusses issues with culturally informed assessments
· Discusses issues with assessments of addiction and substance abuse
· Discusses issues with custody evaluations
Comments:
Organization and Development
20 Percent
Points Earned
X/2
· The paper is 1,000 to 1,250 words in length.
· The paper is clear and organized; major points are supported by details, examples, or analysis.
· The tone aligns with the assignment’s purpose and is geared toward the appropriate audience.
· The paper provides relevant and sufficient background on the topic.
· The paper is logical, flows, and reviews the major points.
Comments:
Mechanics and Format
20 Percent
Points Earned
X/2
· The assignment file is presentable and functional.
· Rules of grammar, usage, and punctuation are followed; spelling is correct.
· The paper—including the title page, reference page, tables, and any appendices—is consistent with APA guidelines.
Comments:
Additional Comments:
Total Earned
X/10 ...
This document provides an economic commentary and outlook from Scotiabank. It discusses several topics:
- Chinese exports are expected to resume growing in the 6% range in May as distortions from currency movements drop out, and China takes steps to support growth.
- The Ontario election this week adds uncertainty, while Canadian housing starts and manufacturing data are expected to provide modest signals.
- Upcoming US retail sales data may show pent-up consumer demand being released in Q2 following weather-impacted spending in Q1, supporting expectations for strong Q2 GDP growth. Employment and household finances have greatly improved in the US.
Global equity markets gained in Q4 2013 but declined slightly for the week as markets had an uncertain start to the new year. Asian markets were lackluster amid weak Chinese economic data that showed a deceleration in activity. European markets started cautiously despite positive economic data. US markets edged lower on thin volumes. Indian markets closed 2013 in positive territory but declined for the week on mixed domestic data. The document discusses economic and market performance in recent periods and provides an outlook for 2014, noting signs of stabilization in the Indian economy.
This document discusses several key economic indicators that affect commodity prices, including:
- Consumer confidence index, consumer price index, employment reports, GDP, and retail sales which measure economic activity and consumer spending.
- FOMC meetings and interest rate announcements which can impact inflation and currency valuations.
- Trade balance, current account, and durable goods orders which provide insights into international trade trends.
- Housing starts and industrial production which track business investment and manufacturing activity.
These economic indicators are closely watched globally as they can signal changes in commodity demand and supply.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and key trends affecting consumer products companies in 2014. It summarizes the economic situations and forecasts for major countries and regions including the Eurozone, Japan, China, United States, United Kingdom, and emerging markets like Brazil. Political uncertainties could impact economic predictions, but modest growth is expected in the Eurozone while Japan and the US are recovering nicely and the UK is seeing a rebound in growth. China is slowing and implementing reforms to transition to a more sustainable economy.
Deloitte global powers of consumer products 2014vishalsingh660
To start a new section, hold down the apple+shift keys and click
to release this object and type the section title in the box below.
Global Powers of Consumer Products 2014
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL) is
pleased to present the 7th annual
Global Powers of
Consumer Products
. This report identifies the 250 largest
consumer products companies around the world based
on publicly available data for the fiscal year 2012
(encompassing companies’ fiscal years ended through
June 2013).
The report also provides an outlook for the global
economy, an analysis of market capitalization in the
industry, a look at M&A activity in the consumer
products sector, and a discussion of major trends
affecting consumer products companies.
The New Forex Fundamentals: Effectively Scanning Global Markets - Vantage FXVantage FX
Are you scanning the markets in a manner that is getting you ahead of the crowd? Are you reading sentiment correctly? Still doing things the old way? Abe Cofnas’ New Forex Fundamentals seminar module showed our clients a unique way to detect global sentiment to reshape their forex trading strategies.
You can view the presentation slides here!
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Printer Version - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sy.docxChantellPantoja184
Printer Version - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150917a.htm[9/21/2015 2:49:59 PM]
Print
Press Release
Release Date: September 17, 2015
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity
is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing
moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor
market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, labor market
indicators show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has
continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and
in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower; survey-
based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price
stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and
are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee
expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace,
with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its
dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor
market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near
its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent
over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy
and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today
reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains
appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--
both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This
assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market
conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and
international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range
for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is
reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium ter.
This document provides an overview and outlook across various sectors in the Indian economy and globally. It begins with a note from the CEO discussing current economic conditions and opportunities from innovation and disruption. Several sections then analyze domestic and global equity markets, debt markets, key economic indicators, and provide outlooks for various sectors in India and globally. The document aims to inform investors on current economic and market conditions.
Municipal bond prices moved lower during the second quarter, as fears about the Federal Reserve tapering its stimulus program rattled the financial markets. While a handful of states still face some budget pressure for the remainder of their 2013 fiscal year, 45 states reported that they are likely to meet or exceed their revenue projections for fiscal year 2013. Interest-rate volatility and the longer term prospect of higher rates have reinforced our bias toward a more limited duration stance. We continue to overweight essential-service revenue bonds, as well as the A-rated and BBB-rated segments of the market. Our outlook calls for defaults to remain low and continued gradual economic recovery.
Factsheet for Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund- WishfinAnvi Sharma
The scheme aims to maximize long term capital appreciation by investing primarily in equity & equity related securities of companies engaged in banking & financial services. The scheme would invest in banks as well as NBFC's, insurance companies, rating agencies, broking companies, etc.
We expect rate volatility to remain high as Fed tapering continues and as the U.S. labor market struggles to normalize. In Europe, the European Central Bank has moved a step closer to easier monetary policy, which may drive further spread compression in peripheral sovereign bonds. Recent stability in emerging-market asset markets suggests better data for developing countries could be on the horizon. Our outlook for credit, prepayment, and liquidity risks remains positive.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India from the perspective of an advisory firm. It discusses positive developments in the domestic economy including higher than expected GDP growth in the first quarter and signs of recovery in industrial production. Inflation remains high but fuel prices are declining. The new government is pursuing reforms and the outlook is hopeful for continued economic revival. Globally, recovery is ongoing in the US and Eurozone which supports Indian markets, while falling oil prices are a major positive.
Similar to FOMC Meeting on June 19th 2013 Minutes (20)
SIT Report on Black Money to Hon. Supreme Courtatul baride
The Executive Summary of the Special Investigation Team ( S.I.T.) was submitted by the Shah Panel and is published by Indian Government On 24 Th July 2015 Insider Trading, Share Price Manipulation, P-Notes, Mispricing Import-Export, Cricket Betting, Indirect Tax Evasion are cited to be Main Sources of Money Laundering. The Present Set Up of Indian Government was vociferous and Proactive during Election Campaigns of 2014. But, has done little after assuming charge.
US Interest Rates Suspense Continues F.O.M.C.Statement--march 18, 2015atul baride
US F.O.M.C. Decided to Drop Patient and indicates being Data Dependent. What are the right Interest Rate in present circumstance is the Question Never Asked Nor Answered..
What Is the Right Interest rates Path For US and World
Ben Bernanke's Opening Press Conference Statement.atul baride
Chairman Bernanke provided an opening statement at a press conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. He noted that the economy continues growing at a moderate pace despite fiscal headwinds, and the labor market has improved with an average of 200,000 private sector jobs added per month over the past six months. However, unemployment remains elevated at 7.6%. Inflation has been below the FOMC's 2% target but is expected to gradually rise over time. The FOMC decided to continue its highly accommodative monetary policies, including maintaining an exceptionally low federal funds rate and continuing its asset purchase program of $40 billion in MBS and $45 billion in Treasuries per month. Bernanke indicated the FOMC
Lt income opportunities fund presentationatul baride
The document discusses the current market environment of falling oil, gold and inflation prices, as well as slowing economic growth. It notes that this could lead to further reductions in policy interest rates. It then summarizes recent movements in key Indian interest rates and bond yields. The document advocates for investing in high accrual funds in this environment due to risks of reinvestment at lower rates. It describes the L&T Income Opportunities Fund strategy of focusing on high yielding corporate debt, including from infrastructure companies, and emphasizes the fund's rigorous credit selection process.
US Federal Reserve has published the Projected, Adverse and Very Adverse situations and estimated the economic Scenarios. Well, Nothing seems to have been provided for ' Fiscal Cliff' and International slow Down
This document contains the minutes from a Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on October 23-24, 2012. The committee discussed potentially using specific threshold values for inflation and unemployment to provide guidance on the timing of an increase in interest rates. Most participants favored including economic variables over just a calendar date. There were differing views on whether quantitative or qualitative thresholds would be most effective. The committee agreed to consider key issues around implementing thresholds before deciding whether to adopt them.
Indian Banks : Trends and Progress, RBIatul baride
This report is published by Reserve Bank of India showing the detail analysis of the Indian Banking Industry and various tenets like NPA's, Deposit growth, types of credit etc
The Transparency Inclusive Governance Report_2012atul baride
The document discusses transparency and inclusiveness in Indian governance. It outlines initiatives taken by the government to promote transparency, such as the Right to Information Act and proposed Lokpal bill. It also discusses efforts towards more inclusive governance through Panchayati Raj institutions and urban local bodies. While progress has been made, more remains to be done to fully implement decentralization and ensure participation of citizens in decision making at all levels of government.
World Economic Forum, 'The Financial Development Report 2012'atul baride
The World Economic Forum Held In Gudgaon, Near New Delhi, India was attended by many Scholars, Academicians With Special reference to Indian Economy, Society and Politics and Businesses
RBI's Mid quarter Policy. No Loan against Gold, Raising Provisions for NPA, and trying to cut the leverages in the Banking system.
Why every 45 days Dr Suba Rao has to walk to the Podium..?
The document contains fact sheets for several Fidelity funds, including the Fidelity Equity Fund and Fidelity Tax Advantage Fund. It provides information such as fund objectives, fund managers, portfolio breakdowns by industry, and past performance. The Fidelity Equity Fund is an open-ended equity growth scheme that primarily invests in sectors like banks, software, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods. The Fidelity Tax Advantage Fund is an open-ended equity linked savings scheme that complies with Section 80C of the Income Tax Act and primarily invests in sectors like consumer goods, banks, software, and pharmaceuticals.
European Banks : Curtain Raiser on Structureatul baride
The European Debt Crisis is threatening the European Banks. The Rising Bond yields are making Italy and Spain being Sucked into the Crisis.
European Central Bank release is here
1) Fidelity Fixed Maturity Plan - Series VI is a closed-ended debt scheme with six plans (Plans A to F) presented by Fidelity Mutual Fund.
2) Plan B is currently opening its new fund offer from December 8, 2011 to December 14, 2011. New fund offers for Plans C-F will commence within the next six months.
3) The scheme seeks to generate returns and reduce interest rate volatility primarily through investment in money market and short to mid term debt instruments having maturity on or before the date of maturity of each plan.
The Beige Book is the Notes and data prepared by the staff of Federal Reserve Board, USA. This book acts as a Precursor about the data and report of the FOMC Meeting
The document provides a summary of derivative market activity in India on November 25, 2011. Some key points include:
- The open interest for Nifty futures decreased by 7.29% while for MiniNifty futures it decreased by 4.78% as the market closed at 4756.45 levels.
- Implied volatility decreased from 36.55% to 26.63% for at-the-money options. PCR-OI increased from 0.86 to 0.90.
- FII's continued to be net sellers in the cash market and rolled over less of their index futures positions, decreasing open interest. They were net buyers in index options.
- Put options at strikes
The document provides an overview of financial markets and investment options. It defines key terms like investment, interest, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and stock exchanges. It explains why investing is important to earn returns and beat inflation. It also outlines various short-term and long-term financial investment options and factors to consider when selecting investments.
1) The document presents the Motilal Oswal MOSt 10 Year Gilt Fund, an open-ended gilt scheme that will invest predominantly in 10-year benchmark government securities.
2) It analyzes factors like slowing growth, high inflation, and tight liquidity that have led to rising interest rates in India, suggesting rates may decline going forward.
3) The fund aims to benefit from falling interest rates by investing in long duration 10-year government bonds, providing a pure play on the interest rate cycle with low credit risk.
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial ReportsEasyReports
Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
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OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance36 Crypto
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Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
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"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
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The Universal Account Number (UAN) by EPFO centralizes multiple PF accounts, simplifying management for Indian employees. It streamlines PF transfers, withdrawals, and KYC updates, providing transparency and reducing employer dependency. Despite challenges like digital literacy and internet access, UAN is vital for financial empowerment and efficient provident fund management in today's digital age.
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Does teamwork really matter? Looking beyond the job posting to understand lab...
FOMC Meeting on June 19th 2013 Minutes
1. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
June 18–19, 2013
A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was
held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tues-
day, June 18, 2013, at 1:30 p.m. and continued on
Wednesday, June 19, 2013, at 9:00 a.m.
PRESENT:
Ben Bernanke, Chairman
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
James Bullard
Elizabeth Duke
Charles L. Evans
Esther L. George
Jerome H. Powell
Sarah Bloom Raskin
Eric Rosengren
Jeremy C. Stein
Daniel K. Tarullo
Janet L. Yellen
Christine Cumming, Richard W. Fisher, Narayana
Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, Alternate
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee
Jeffrey M. Lacker, Dennis P. Lockhart, and John C.
Williams, Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks
of Richmond, Atlanta, and San Francisco, respec-
tively
Gregory L. Stefani, First Vice President, Federal Re-
serve Bank of Cleveland
William B. English, Secretary and Economist
Matthew M. Luecke, Assistant Secretary
David W. Skidmore, Assistant Secretary
Michelle A. Smith, Assistant Secretary
Scott G. Alvarez, General Counsel
Thomas C. Baxter, Deputy General Counsel
Steven B. Kamin, Economist
David W. Wilcox, Economist
Thomas A. Connors, Troy Davig, Michael P. Leahy,
James J. McAndrews, Stephen A. Meyer, David
Reifschneider, Geoffrey Tootell, Christopher J.
Waller, and William Wascher, Associate Econo-
mists
Simon Potter, Manager, System Open Market Account
Nellie Liang, Director, Office of Financial Stability Pol-
icy and Research, Board of Governors
James A. Clouse and William Nelson, Deputy Direc-
tors, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Gov-
ernors; Matthew J. Eichner, Deputy Director, Divi-
sion of Research and Statistics, Board of Gover-
nors; Maryann F. Hunter, Deputy Director, Divi-
sion of Banking Supervision and Regulation, Board
of Governors
Jon W. Faust, Special Adviser to the Board, Office of
Board Members, Board of Governors
Linda Robertson, Assistant to the Board, Office of
Board Members, Board of Governors
Ellen E. Meade and Joyce K. Zickler, Senior Advisers,
Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors
Daniel M. Covitz, Eric M. Engen, and Thomas Lau-
bach, Associate Directors, Division of Research
and Statistics, Board of Governors
Sean D. Campbell and Joshua Gallin, Deputy Associate
Directors, Division of Research and Statistics,
Board of Governors; Jane E. Ihrig and David
López-Salido, Deputy Associate Directors, Divi-
sion of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors
Joseph W. Gruber, Assistant Director, Division of In-
ternational Finance, Board of Governors
Jeremy B. Rudd, Adviser, Division of Research and
Statistics, Board of Governors
David H. Small, Project Manager, Division of Mone-
tary Affairs, Board of Governors
Deborah J. Lindner, Group Manager, Division of Re-
search and Statistics, Board of Governors
Patrice Robitaille, Senior Economist, Division of Inter-
national Finance, Board of Governors
Seung J. Lee, Economist, Division of Monetary Affairs,
Board of Governors
Page 1_____________________________________________________________________________________________
2. Peter M. Garavuso, Records Management Analyst, Di-
vision of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors
James M. Lyon, First Vice President, Federal Reserve
Bank of Minneapolis
David Altig and Loretta J. Mester, Executive Vice Pres-
idents, Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Phil-
adelphia, respectively
Lorie K. Logan, David Marshall, Mark E. Schweitzer,
and Kei-Mu Yi, Senior Vice Presidents, Federal
Reserve Banks of New York, Chicago, Cleveland,
and Minneapolis, respectively
Evan F. Koenig, Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank
of Dallas
Andreas L. Hornstein, Senior Advisor, Federal Reserve
Bank of Richmond
John Fernald, Senior Research Adviser, Federal Re-
serve Bank of San Francisco
Discussion of Guidelines for Policy Normalization
In light of the changes in the System Open Market Ac-
count (SOMA) portfolio over the past two years, the
Committee again discussed its strategy for the eventual
normalization of the stance of monetary policy and the
size and composition of the Federal Reserve’s balance
sheet that was released in the minutes of the Commit-
tee’s June 2011 meeting. Although most participants
saw this review as prudent longer-range planning, some
felt that the discussion was premature. Meeting partic-
ipants, in general, continued to view the broad princi-
ples set out in 2011 as still applicable. Nonetheless,
they agreed that many of the details of the eventual
normalization process would likely differ from those
specified two years ago, that the appropriate details
would depend in part on economic and financial devel-
opments between now and the time when it becomes
appropriate to begin normalizing monetary policy, and
that the Committee would need to provide additional
information about its intentions as that time approach-
es. Participants continued to think that the Federal
Reserve should, in the long run, hold predominantly
Treasury securities. Most, however, now anticipated
that the Committee would not sell agency mortgage-
backed securities (MBS) as part of the normalization
process, although some indicated that limited sales
might be warranted in the longer run to reduce or elim-
inate residual holdings. A couple of participants stated
that they preferred that the Committee make no deci-
sion about sales of MBS until closer to the start of the
normalization process. Participants agreed that the
Committee’s focus continued to be on providing ap-
propriate monetary accommodation to promote a
stronger recovery in the context of price stability and
so judged that additional discussion regarding policy
normalization should be deferred.
Developments in Financial Markets and the Fed-
eral Reserve’s Balance Sheet
The Manager of the SOMA reported on developments
in domestic and foreign financial markets as well as the
System open market operations during the period since
the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on
April 30–May 1, 2013. The review included a report
that the System’s purchases of longer-term assets did
not appear to have had an adverse effect on the func-
tioning of the markets for Treasury securities or agency
MBS, and that the Open Market Desk’s operations in
both sectors had proceeded smoothly. By unanimous
vote, the Committee ratified the Desk’s domestic trans-
actions over the intermeeting period. There were no
intervention operations in foreign currencies for the
System’s account over the intermeeting period.
Staff Review of the Economic Situation
The information reviewed for the June 18–19 meeting
suggested that economic activity continued to increase
at a moderate rate in the second quarter. Private-sector
employment expanded further in recent months, and
the unemployment rate in April and May was below its
first-quarter average, although it continued to be ele-
vated. Consumer price inflation was subdued, partly
reflecting transitory influences. However, measures of
longer-run inflation expectations remained stable.
Private nonfarm employment rose moderately in April
and May, while total government employment contin-
ued to decline somewhat. The unemployment rate was
7.6 percent in May, little changed from its level in April.
The labor force participation rate edged up in May, but
was still slightly below its first-quarter average, and the
employment-to-population ratio increased a bit in re-
cent months. The rate of long-duration unemployment
declined slightly, while the share of workers employed
part time for economic reasons was little changed; both
of these measures remained well above their pre-
recession levels. Forward-looking indicators of near-
term labor market activity were mixed but generally
pointed to some further improvement in labor market
conditions in the coming months: Household expecta-
Page 2 Federal Open Market Committee_____________________________________________________________________________________________
3. tions of the labor market situation improved; initial
claims for unemployment insurance were little changed,
on net, over the intermeeting period; and firms’ hiring
plans edged up. However, measures of job openings
and the rate of gross private-sector hiring were about
flat, on balance, in recent months and remained near
their levels of a year ago.
Manufacturing production increased slightly in May
after declining in the previous two months, and the rate
of manufacturing capacity utilization in May was lower
than in the first quarter. Automakers’ schedules indi-
cated that the pace of motor vehicle assemblies would
hold roughly steady in the coming months, and broader
indicators of manufacturing production, such as the
readings on new orders from national and regional
manufacturing surveys, were generally at subdued levels
that pointed to only modest increases in factory output
in the near term.
Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose in
April. In May, nominal retail sales, excluding those at
motor vehicle and parts outlets, increased briskly, while
light motor vehicle sales moved up solidly. Some key
factors that tend to support growth in household
spending were positive in recent months. After de-
creasing in the first quarter when payroll and income
taxes increased, households’ real disposable income
rose in April, in part reflecting a small decline in con-
sumer prices. Households’ net worth likely increased in
recent months, as equity values and home prices rose
further. Moreover, consumer sentiment in the Thom-
son Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Con-
sumers improved notably, on balance, in May and early
June and was at its most upbeat level since the onset of
the recession.
Conditions in the housing sector generally improved
further, but construction activity was still at a relatively
low level, and demand continued to be restrained by
tight credit standards for mortgage loans. Starts of new
single-family homes declined, on net, in April and May,
but permits rose, suggesting gains in construction in the
coming months. Starts of new multifamily units de-
creased in April but increased in May. Home prices
continued to rise rapidly through April, while sales of
both new and existing homes advanced.
Real business expenditures on equipment and software
appeared to slow somewhat going into the second
quarter after expanding modestly earlier in the year.
Nominal shipments of nondefense capital goods ex-
cluding aircraft decreased in April, but nominal new
orders for these capital goods increased and were
slightly above the level of shipments, pointing to mod-
est gains in shipments in the near term. Other
forward-looking indicators, such as surveys of business
conditions and capital spending plans, also suggested
that outlays for business equipment would continue to
rise at only a modest pace in the coming months.
Nominal business spending for nonresidential con-
struction increased in April after it had declined in the
first quarter. Business inventories in most industries
appeared to be broadly aligned with sales in recent
months.
Real federal government purchases appeared to be de-
clining less rapidly going into the second quarter than
they had during the first quarter, as decreases in de-
fense spending slowed, on balance, in April and May.
The ongoing declines in real state and local government
purchases appeared to moderate over recent months;
the payrolls of these governments expanded in April
and May, but state and local construction expenditures
continued to decline noticeably.
The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed in March
but widened in April, leaving the level of the trade defi-
cit in April similar to its average in the first quarter.
Both imports and exports fell in March but largely re-
covered in April, although oil imports remained below
their first-quarter average. Exports of consumer goods
and automotive products reached new highs in April,
but exports of agricultural products declined.
Overall U.S. consumer prices, as measured by the PCE
price index, edged down in April, while the consumer
price index (CPI) rose somewhat in May. Both the CPI
and the PCE price index increased at a subdued rate
over the most recent 12-month period for each series.
After declining in the previous two months, consumer
energy prices rose a little in May, and retail gasoline
prices, measured on a seasonally adjusted basis, were up
further in the first couple of weeks in June. Consumer
food prices edged down in May after rising modestly in
April. Partly reflecting some transitory factors, such as
a one-time reduction in Medicare prices associated with
the federal government spending sequestration, con-
sumer prices excluding food and energy only edged up
in April but rose slightly more in May. Near-term infla-
tion expectations from the Michigan survey were little
changed in May and early June; longer-term inflation
expectations in the survey also were essentially flat and
remained within the narrow range that they have occu-
pied for a number of years.
Measures of labor compensation indicated that gains in
nominal wages remained modest. Compensation per
Minutes of the Meeting of June 18–19, 2013 Page 3_____________________________________________________________________________________________
4. hour in the nonfarm business sector increased moder-
ately over the year ending in the first quarter, and, with
a small rise in productivity, unit labor costs advanced
only a little. Gains in average hourly earnings for all
employees were muted, on balance, in April and May.
Foreign economic growth remained sluggish so far this
year. A slower pace of expansion in many emerging
market economies (EMEs), including China, since the
beginning of the year offset an increase in the average
rate of economic growth in the advanced foreign econ-
omies. In Japan, where recent policy measures ap-
peared to have boosted household confidence, eco-
nomic growth picked up noticeably early in the year.
Recent indicators of Canadian economic activity also
strengthened. However, indicators for the euro-area
economies remained weak. A decline in commodity
prices and continued lackluster economic growth con-
tributed to a decline in foreign inflation.
Staff Review of the Financial Situation
Financial markets were volatile during the intermeeting
period as investors reacted to incoming economic data
and Federal Reserve communications. Information
about the U.S. economy was somewhat better, on bal-
ance, than investors had anticipated, apparently giving
them greater confidence in the economic outlook.
Federal Reserve communications over the period re-
portedly were interpreted by market participants as
pointing to a less accommodative stance of future
monetary policy than they previously had expected.
Market-based indicators suggested that investors re-
vised up their expectations about the path of the feder-
al funds rate in coming years. Forward rates two to
three years ahead derived from overnight index swaps
shifted up 25 to 40 basis points over the intermeeting
period, likely reflecting both an increase in the expected
path for the federal funds rate and an increase in term
premiums. In contrast to the readings from financial
market quotes, which suggested that investors had
come to expect the FOMC to increase its target for the
federal funds rate sooner than they previously had an-
ticipated, the results from the Desk’s survey of primary
dealers conducted prior to the June meeting showed
little material change, on balance, in the dealers’ expec-
tations of the most likely timing of the first increase in
the federal funds rate target.
Nominal yields on Treasury securities rose sharply over
the intermeeting period amid some better-than-
expected U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve
communications that were interpreted by market par-
ticipants as signaling a possible earlier-than-expected
reduction in the pace of purchases under the FOMC’s
flow-based asset purchase program. Nominal yields on
5- to 30-year Treasury securities increased about 35 to
55 basis points. Yields on agency MBS rose more than
those on comparable-maturity Treasury securities, leav-
ing option-adjusted spreads to Treasury securities no-
tably wider. The rise in longer-term Treasury yields
appeared to reflect both an increase in term premiums
and a rise in expected future short-term rates. The rise
in term premiums, in turn, likely reflected in part a re-
assessment of the pace and ultimate size of the Federal
Reserve’s asset purchase program, as well as increased
uncertainty about the future path of monetary policy.
Measures of inflation compensation derived from
yields on nominal and inflation-protected Treasury se-
curities fell notably but ended the intermeeting period
within their ranges over the past few years. Investor
perceptions of a somewhat less accommodative tone of
Federal Reserve communications, as well as the softer-
than-expected reading for the April CPI, likely contrib-
uted to the decline in inflation compensation.
Conditions in domestic and offshore dollar funding
markets were generally little changed, on balance, over
the intermeeting period. In secured funding markets,
rates on Treasury general collateral repurchase agree-
ments decreased, on net, in large part because of the
seasonal decline in the supply of Treasury securities.
Market sentiment toward large domestic banking or-
ganizations appeared to improve somewhat over the
intermeeting period, likely related in part to further re-
ductions in nonperforming loans and growing confi-
dence in the economic outlook. Equity prices for large
domestic banks outperformed broad equity indexes
over the intermeeting period, as did the equity prices
for most other types of financial institutions. In con-
trast, equity prices for agency mortgage real estate in-
vestment trusts declined, reflecting the rise in longer-
term interest rates, the underperformance of agency
MBS, and weaker-than-expected earnings reports.
Responses to the June Senior Credit Officer Opinion
Survey on Dealer Financing Terms generally suggested
little change over the past three months in the credit
terms applicable to important classes of counterparties
and in the use of financial leverage by most classes of
counterparties covered by the survey. However, about
one-fourth of dealers reported an increase in the use of
leverage by hedge funds.
Corporate bond yields rose significantly over the
intermeeting period, and their spreads relative to
Page 4 Federal Open Market Committee_____________________________________________________________________________________________
5. comparable-maturity Treasury yields edged higher on
net. Credit flows to nonfinancial businesses remained
strong in May, especially through bond issuance. Gross
issuance of speculative-grade corporate bonds was par-
ticularly elevated early in the intermeeting period, but
such issuance slowed after mid-May in response to the
rise in interest rates and in market volatility. Mean-
while, the issuance of syndicated leveraged loans re-
mained robust in April and May, supported by strong
investor demand for floating-rate corporate debt in-
struments.
House prices continued to rise in recent months, with
national home price indexes up between 5 and 12 per-
cent over the 12-month period ending in April. As a
result, the number of mortgages with negative equity
was estimated to have decreased substantially. Primary
mortgage rates increased with yields on MBS over the
intermeeting period, and the spread between primary
mortgage rates and MBS yields remained near the low
end of its range over recent years. Consumer credit
continued to expand at a solid pace because of the on-
going expansion in auto and student loans; credit card
debt remained about flat. Issuance of consumer asset-
backed securities increased strongly again in May.
Growth in total bank credit moderated in April and
May compared with the first quarter, as core loans
slowed and securities declined slightly. Growth in
commercial and industrial loans at large banks de-
creased noticeably in recent months, reportedly reflect-
ing both increased paydowns and reduced originations.
In contrast, increases in commercial real estate loans
picked up, especially at large banks.
The M2 monetary aggregate expanded at an annual rate
of about 5 percent from April through mid-June. The
monetary base grew at an annual rate exceeding 40 per-
cent over the same period, driven mainly by the in-
crease in reserve balances that resulted from the Feder-
al Reserve’s asset purchases.
Over the intermeeting period, yields on 10-year sover-
eign debt of the advanced foreign economies followed
the yields on comparable-maturity U.S. Treasury securi-
ties higher, and volatility in sovereign bond markets
rose, particularly in Japan. Japanese equity markets also
displayed substantial volatility; equity prices fell sharply
late in the period and erased the gains that had been
registered since early April, when the Bank of Japan
announced that it would expand its asset purchases in
order to nearly double the size of its balance sheet.
European equity indexes were little changed, on net,
over the period, and euro-area financial conditions re-
mained relatively stable. Spreads of yields on Italian
and Spanish government debt over yields on German
bunds increased only a few basis points, while compa-
rable spreads for Greek sovereign debt declined nota-
bly. The foreign exchange value of the dollar was little
changed, on average, relative to the currencies of the
advanced foreign economies, but appreciated against
EME currencies amid weak incoming data on econom-
ic activity and monetary policy easing in some EMEs,
along with rising U.S. Treasury yields. Emerging mar-
ket mutual funds experienced sharp outflows in recent
weeks, while EME stock prices declined and EME
credit spreads widened on net.
The staff reported on potential risks to financial stabil-
ity, including the stability of banking firms, nonbank
financial intermediaries, and asset markets. Most
market-based measures of the health of the banking
sector—such as banks’ stock prices, credit default swap
spreads, and equity correlations—pointed to an im-
provement in the stability of the banking sector, in part
because of rising levels of liquidity and capital as well as
diminished concerns about downside risks. However, a
number of indicators pointed to a modest increase in
risk-taking and leverage that was largely being interme-
diated through the shadow banking system. Signs of
upward pressures on the valuations of some risky assets
were also noted. Overall, the risks to financial stability
were viewed as roughly unchanged since March.
Staff Economic Outlook
In the economic forecast prepared by the staff for the
June FOMC meeting, the projection for near-term
growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) was little
changed from the one prepared for the previous meet-
ing. However, the staff’s medium-term projection for
real GDP was revised up somewhat. The staff raised
its projected paths for equity and home prices, which
pushed up expected consumer spending over the me-
dium term, and boosted its outlook for domestic oil
production, which reduced oil imports in the forecast.
These positive factors were partly offset in the staff’s
medium-term GDP projection by higher projected
paths for both longer-term interest rates and the for-
eign exchange value of the dollar. Nevertheless, with
fiscal policy expected to restrain economic growth this
year, the staff still anticipated that the pace of expan-
sion in real GDP would only moderately exceed the
growth rate of potential output. The staff also contin-
ued to forecast that real GDP would accelerate gradual-
ly in 2014 and 2015, supported by accommodative
monetary policy, an eventual easing in the effects of
fiscal policy restraint on economic growth, increases in
Minutes of the Meeting of June 18–19, 2013 Page 5_____________________________________________________________________________________________
6. consumer and business sentiment, and further im-
provements in credit availability and financial condi-
tions. The expansion in economic activity was antici-
pated to slowly reduce the slack in labor and product
markets over the projection period, and the unem-
ployment rate was expected to decline gradually. In
addition, although the staff did not change its view of
the longer-run level of the natural rate of unemploy-
ment, it judged that the natural rate was on a more
pronounced downward trajectory back toward its
longer-run level than previously assumed; as a result,
the staff’s projection for the unemployment rate over
the next two years was revised down a little, relative to
its previous forecast.
The staff’s forecast for inflation in the near term was
also revised down a little from the projection prepared
for the previous FOMC meeting, reflecting in part
some of the recent softer-than-expected readings on
consumer prices. Nonetheless, the staff expected that
much of the recent softness in inflation would be tran-
sitory, and thus did not materially change its medium-
term projection. The staff projected that inflation
would pick up in the second half of this year, but given
the assumption of stable longer-run inflation expecta-
tions and only modest changes in commodity and im-
port prices as well as forecasts of gradually diminishing
resource slack over the projection period, inflation was
projected to still be relatively subdued through 2015.
The staff viewed the uncertainty around the forecast
for economic activity as normal relative to the experi-
ence of the past 20 years. However, the risks were still
viewed as skewed to the downside, in part because of
concerns about the situation in Europe and the ability
of the U.S. economy to weather potential adverse
shocks. Although the staff saw the outlook for infla-
tion as uncertain, the risks were viewed as balanced and
not unusually high.
Participants’ Views on Current Conditions and the
Economic Outlook
In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, meeting par-
ticipants—the 7 members of the Board of Governors
and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, all
of whom participate in the deliberations of the
FOMC—submitted their assessments of real output
growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the tar-
get federal funds rate for each year from 2013 through
2015 and over the longer run, under each participant’s
judgment of appropriate monetary policy.1 The longer-
run projections represent each participant’s assessment
of the rate to which each variable would be expected to
converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy
and in the absence of further shocks to the economy.
These economic projections and policy assessments are
described in the Summary of Economic Projections,
which is attached as an addendum to these minutes.
In their discussion of the economic situation, meeting
participants generally indicated that the information
received during the intermeeting period continued to
suggest that the economy was expanding at a moderate
pace. A number of participants mentioned that they
were encouraged by the apparent resilience of private
spending so far this year despite considerable down-
ward pressure from lower government spending and
higher taxes. In particular, consumer spending rose at
a moderate rate, and the housing sector continued to
strengthen. Business investment advanced, although
only modestly, and slower economic activity abroad
restrained domestic production. Overall conditions in
the labor market improved further in recent months,
although the unemployment rate remained elevated.
Inflation continued to run below the Committee’s
longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expecta-
tions remained stable.
Most participants anticipated that growth of real GDP
would pick up somewhat in the second half of 2013.
Growth of economic activity was projected to
strengthen further during 2014 and 2015, supported by
accommodative monetary policy; waning fiscal re-
straint; and ongoing improvements in household and
business balance sheets, credit availability, and labor
market conditions. Accordingly, the unemployment
rate was projected to gradually decline toward levels
consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate. Many
participants saw the downside risks to the medium-run
outlook for the economy and the labor market as hav-
ing diminished somewhat in recent months, or ex-
pressed greater confidence that stronger economic ac-
tivity was in train. However, some participants noted
that they remained uncertain about the projected
pickup in growth of economic activity in coming quar-
ters, and thus about the prospects for further im-
provement in labor market conditions, given that, in
1 Although President Pianalto was unable to attend the June
18–19, 2013, FOMC meeting, she submitted economic pro-
jections. First Vice President Gregory L. Stefani represented
the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland at the meeting.
Page 6 Federal Open Market Committee_____________________________________________________________________________________________
7. recent years, forecasts of a sustained pickup in growth
had not been realized.
Participants noted that consumer spending continued
to increase at a moderate rate in recent months despite
tax increases and only modest gains in wages. Among
the factors viewed as supporting consumption were
improvements in household balance sheets and in the
job market, as well as low interest rates. In addition,
consumer sentiment improved over the intermeeting
period, which some participants attributed to rising
house prices and gains in the stock market. It was not-
ed that the mutually reinforcing dynamic of rising con-
fidence, declining risk premiums, improving credit
availability, increasing spending, and greater hiring was
an important factor in the projected pickup in econom-
ic activity but also that this favorable dynamic could be
vulnerable to an adverse shock. A few participants ex-
pressed some concern about the outlook for consumer
spending, citing the weakness in labor income and
households’ cautious attitudes toward using debt.
Housing markets continued to strengthen, with partici-
pants variously reporting increases in house prices,
sales, and building permits; low inventories of homes
on the market; and rising demand for construction
supplies. The improvement in the housing sector was
seen as supporting the broader economy through relat-
ed spending and employment, with rising real estate
values boosting household wealth, confidence, and ac-
cess to credit. Participants generally were optimistic
that the recovery in housing activity would be sus-
tained, although a couple of participants were con-
cerned that the run-up in mortgage rates in recent
weeks might begin to crimp demand. However, the
recent increase in mortgage purchase applications was
seen as suggesting that the demand for housing was
being driven by factors beyond low mortgage rates.
Reports on business spending were mixed. A number
of participants continued to hear that businesses were
limiting their capital spending to projects intended to
enhance productivity and that they remained reluctant
to invest to expand capacity, or to step up hiring. Un-
certainties about regulatory issues and fiscal policies as
well as weak economic activity abroad were cited as
factors weighing on business decisionmaking. Some
businesses, particularly smaller firms, were again re-
ported to be concerned about the implications of new
health-care regulations for their labor costs. Nonethe-
less, a few participants reported that their business con-
tacts expressed somewhat greater confidence in the
economic outlook or reported plans to expand capaci-
ty. A pickup in bank lending to small businesses was
also reported. Although the manufacturing sector
slowed considerably during the spring, contacts in sev-
eral Districts reported that activity turned up more re-
cently. Reports on activity in the airline, trucking, and
warehousing industries were uneven. Agriculture re-
mained robust, supported in part by strong demand
from emerging market economies. However, prospects
for farm income were less positive as a result of the wet
weather in the Midwest and expectations of lower pric-
es for corn. The outlook for the energy sector re-
mained positive.
While the federal sequestration and the tax increases
that became effective earlier in the year were expected
to be a substantial drag on economic activity this year,
the magnitude and timing of the effects remained un-
clear. Several participants commented that the direct
effects of the cutbacks in federal spending, to date, did
not appear as great as had been expected, but that they
anticipated that fiscal policy would continue to restrain
economic growth in coming quarters. In particular,
one pointed out that the furloughs scheduled for the
second half of the year were likely to reduce household
income and spending. A report on the favorable fiscal
condition of one state was indicative of the improve-
ment in the budget situation at state and local govern-
ments.
Participants generally agreed that labor market condi-
tions had continued to improve, on balance, in recent
months; many saw the cumulative decline in the unem-
ployment rate and gains in nonfarm payrolls over the
past nine months as considerable. Reflecting these de-
velopments, participants’ forecasts for the unemploy-
ment rate at this meeting were lower than those pre-
pared for the September 2012 meeting. Among the
encouraging aspects of labor market developments
since then were the step-up in average monthly gains in
private employment, the breadth of job gains across
industries, the decline in layoffs, and a rise in voluntary
quits in some industries. However, some participants
discussed a number of indicators that suggested that
the improvement in broad labor market conditions was
less than might be implied by the decline in the unem-
ployment rate alone. Some pointed out that the rate of
hiring still fell short of the pace that they saw as con-
sistent with more-noticeable progress in labor market
conditions, that a portion of the improvement in pay-
roll employment since the September meeting was due
to data revisions, or that there were no signs of an in-
crease in wage pressures. Others expressed concern
about the still-elevated level of long-duration jobless-
Minutes of the Meeting of June 18–19, 2013 Page 7_____________________________________________________________________________________________
8. ness and the weakness in labor force participation.
Most participants still saw slack remaining in the labor
market, although they differed on the extent to which
the progress to date had reduced that slack and how
confident they were about future labor market im-
provement.
Inflation was low in the months prior to the meeting,
with the trends in all broad measures remaining below
the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective. Sever-
al transitory factors, including a one-time reduction in
Medicare costs, contributed to the recent very low in-
flation readings. In addition, energy prices declined,
and nonfuel commodity prices were soft. Over the
past year, both core and overall consumer price infla-
tion trended lower; participants cited various alternative
measures of consumer price inflation, including the
trimmed mean PCE and CPI as well as the sticky price
CPI, that suggested that the slowing was broad based.
Market-based measures of inflation expectations de-
creased over the intermeeting period but remained
within their ranges over the past few years. Most par-
ticipants expected inflation to begin to move up over
the coming year as economic activity strengthened, but
many anticipated that it would remain below the
Committee’s 2 percent objective for some time. One
participant expressed concern about the risk of a more
rapid rise in inflation over the medium term, given the
highly accommodative stance of monetary policy. In
contrast, many others worried about the low level of
inflation, and a number indicated that they would be
watching closely for signs that the shift down in infla-
tion might persist or that inflation expectations were
persistently moving lower.
In their discussion of financial market developments
over the intermeeting period, participants weighed the
extent to which the rise in market interest rates and
increase in volatility reflected a reassessment of market
participants’ expectations for monetary policy and the
extent to which it reflected growing confidence about
the economic outlook. It was noted that corporate
credit spreads had not widened substantially and that
the stock market had posted further gains, suggesting
that the higher rates reflected, at least in part, increasing
confidence that moderate economic growth would be
sustained. Several participants worried that higher
mortgage rates and bond yields could slow the recovery
in the housing market and restrain business expansion.
However, some others commented that any adverse
effects of the increase in rates on financial conditions
more broadly appeared to be limited.
A number of participants offered views on risks to fi-
nancial stability. A couple of participants expressed
concerns that some financial institutions might not be
well positioned to weather a rapid run-up in interest
rates. Two others emphasized the importance of bol-
stering the resilience of money market funds against
disorderly outflows. And a few stated their view that a
prolonged period of low interest rates would encourage
investors to take on excessive credit or interest rate risk
and would distort some asset prices. However, others
suggested that the recent rise in rates might have re-
duced such incentives. While market volatility had in-
creased of late, it was noted that the rise in measured
volatility, while noticeable, occurred from a low level,
and that a broad index of financial stress remained be-
low average. One participant felt that the Committee
should explore ways to calibrate the magnitude of the
risks to financial stability so that those considerations
could be more fully incorporated into deliberations on
monetary policy.
Participants discussed how best to communicate the
Committee’s approach to decisions about its asset pur-
chase program and how to reduce uncertainty about
how the Committee might adjust its purchases in re-
sponse to economic developments. Importantly, par-
ticipants wanted to emphasize that the pace, composi-
tion, and extent of asset purchases would continue to
be dependent on the Committee’s assessment of the
implications of incoming information for the economic
outlook, as well as the cumulative progress toward the
Committee’s economic objectives since the institution
of the program last September. The discussion cen-
tered on the possibility of providing a rough descrip-
tion of the path for asset purchases that the Committee
would anticipate implementing if economic conditions
evolved in a manner broadly consistent with the out-
comes the Committee saw as most likely. Several par-
ticipants pointed to the challenge of making it clear that
policymakers necessarily weigh a broad range of eco-
nomic variables and longer-run economic trends in
assessing the outlook. As an alternative, some suggest-
ed providing forward guidance about asset purchases
based on numerical values for one or more economic
variables, broadly akin to the Committee’s guidance
regarding its target for the federal funds rate, arguing
that such guidance would be more effective in reducing
uncertainty and communicating the conditionality of
policy. However, participants also noted possible dis-
advantages of such an approach, including that such
forward guidance might inappropriately constrain the
Committee’s decisionmaking, or that it might prove
Page 8 Federal Open Market Committee_____________________________________________________________________________________________
9. difficult to communicate to investors and the general
public.
Since the September meeting, some participants had
become more confident of sustained improvement in
the outlook for the labor market and so thought that a
downward adjustment in asset purchases had or would
likely soon become appropriate; they saw a need to
clearly communicate an intention to lower the pace of
purchases before long. However, to some other partic-
ipants, this approach appeared likely to limit the Com-
mittee’s flexibility in adjusting asset purchases in re-
sponse to changes in economic conditions, which they
viewed as a key element in the design of the purchase
program. Others were concerned that stating an inten-
tion to slow the pace of asset purchases, even if the
intention were conditional on the economy developing
about in line with the Committee’s expectations, might
be misinterpreted as signaling an end to the addition of
policy accommodation or even be seen as the initial
step toward exit from the Committee’s highly accom-
modative policy stance. It was suggested that any
statement about asset purchases make clear that deci-
sions concerning the pace of purchases are distinct
from decisions concerning the federal funds rate.
Participants generally agreed that the Committee
should provide additional clarity about its asset pur-
chase program relatively soon. A number thought that
the postmeeting statement might be the appropriate
vehicle for providing additional information on the
Committee’s thinking. However, some saw potential
difficulties in being able to convey succinctly the de-
sired information in the postmeeting statement. Oth-
ers noted the need to ensure that any new statement
language intended to provide more information about
the asset purchase program be clearly integrated with
communication about the Committee’s other policy
tools. At the conclusion of the discussion, most partic-
ipants thought that the Chairman, during his postmeet-
ing press conference, should describe a likely path for
asset purchases in coming quarters that was conditional
on economic outcomes broadly in line with the Com-
mittee’s expectations. In addition, he would make clear
that decisions about asset purchases and other policy
tools would continue to be dependent on the Commit-
tee’s ongoing assessment of the economic outlook. He
would also draw the distinction between the asset pur-
chase program and the forward guidance regarding the
target for the federal funds rate, noting that the Com-
mittee anticipates that there will be a considerable time
between the end of asset purchases and the time when
it becomes appropriate to increase the target for the
federal funds rate.
Committee Policy Action
Committee members viewed the information received
over the intermeeting period as suggesting that eco-
nomic activity had expanded at a moderate pace. La-
bor market conditions showed further improvement in
recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate
remained elevated. Household spending and business
fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector
strengthened further, but fiscal policy was restraining
economic growth. The Committee expected that, with
appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth
would proceed at a moderate pace and result in a grad-
ual decline in the unemployment rate toward levels
consistent with its dual mandate. With economic activ-
ity and employment continuing to grow at a moderate
pace despite tighter fiscal policy, and with global finan-
cial conditions less strained, members generally saw the
downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the
labor market as having diminished since the fall. Infla-
tion was running below the Committee’s longer-run
objective, partly reflecting transitory influences, but
longer-run inflation expectations were stable, and the
Committee anticipated that inflation over the medium
term would move closer to its 2 percent objective.
In their discussion of monetary policy for the period
ahead, all members but one judged that the outlook for
economic activity and inflation warranted the continua-
tion of the Committee’s current highly accommodative
stance of monetary policy in order to foster a stronger
economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor
market conditions in a context of price stability. In the
view of one member, the improvement in the outlook
for the labor market warranted a more deliberate
statement from the Committee that asset purchases
would be reduced in the very near future. At the con-
clusion of its discussion, the Committee decided to
continue adding policy accommodation by purchasing
additional MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month and
longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion
per month and to maintain its existing reinvestment
policies. In addition, the Committee reaffirmed its in-
tention to keep the target federal funds rate at 0 to
¼ percent and retained its forward guidance that it an-
ticipates that this exceptionally low range for the feder-
al funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the
unemployment rate remains above 6½ percent, infla-
tion between one and two years ahead is projected to
be no more than a half percentage point above the
Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-
Minutes of the Meeting of June 18–19, 2013 Page 9_____________________________________________________________________________________________
10. term inflation expectations continue to be well an-
chored.
Regarding the outlook for policy, members agreed that
monetary policy in coming quarters would depend on
the evolution of the economic outlook and progress
toward the Committee’s longer-run objectives of max-
imum employment and inflation of 2 percent. While
recognizing the improvement in a number of indicators
of economic activity and labor market conditions since
the fall, many members indicated that further im-
provement in the outlook for the labor market would
be required before it would be appropriate to slow the
pace of asset purchases. Some added that they would,
as well, need to see more evidence that the projected
acceleration in economic activity would occur, before
reducing the pace of asset purchases. For one member,
such a decision would also depend importantly on evi-
dence that inflation was moving back toward the
Committee’s 2 percent objective; that member urged
the Committee to modify its postmeeting statement to
say explicitly that the Committee will act to move infla-
tion back toward its goal. A couple of other members
also worried that the downside risks to inflation had
increased, with one of them suggesting that the state-
ment more explicitly reflect this increased risk. How-
ever, several members judged that a reduction in asset
purchases would likely soon be warranted, in light of
the cumulative decline in unemployment since the Sep-
tember meeting and ongoing increases in private pay-
rolls, which had increased their confidence in the out-
look for sustained improvement in labor market condi-
tions. Two of these members also indicated that the
Committee should begin curtailing its purchases rela-
tively soon in order to prevent the potential negative
consequences of the program from exceeding its antic-
ipated benefits. Another member pointed out that if
the program were ended because of concerns about
such consequences, the Committee would need to ex-
plore other options for providing appropriate monetary
accommodation. Many members indicated that deci-
sions about the pace and composition of asset purchas-
es were distinct from decisions about the appropriate
level of the federal funds rate, which would continue to
be guided by the thresholds in the Committee’s state-
ment. In general, members continued to anticipate that
maintaining the current exceptionally low level of the
federal funds rate was likely to remain appropriate for a
considerable period after asset purchases are conclud-
ed.
At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee
voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank
of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to exe-
cute transactions in the System Account in accordance
with the following domestic policy directive:
“Consistent with its statutory mandate, the
Federal Open Market Committee seeks
monetary and financial conditions that will
foster maximum employment and price sta-
bility. In particular, the Committee seeks
conditions in reserve markets consistent
with federal funds trading in a range from
0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the
Desk to undertake open market operations
as necessary to maintain such conditions.
The Desk is directed to continue purchasing
longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of
about $45 billion per month and to contin-
ue purchasing agency mortgage-backed se-
curities at a pace of about $40 billion per
month. The Committee also directs the
Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon
swap transactions as necessary to facilitate
settlement of the Federal Reserve’s agency
mortgage-backed securities transactions.
The Committee directs the Desk to main-
tain its policy of rolling over maturing
Treasury securities into new issues and its
policy of reinvesting principal payments on
all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed
securities in agency mortgage-backed securi-
ties. The System Open Market Account
Manager and the Secretary will keep the
Committee informed of ongoing develop-
ments regarding the System’s balance sheet
that could affect the attainment over time
of the Committee’s objectives of maximum
employment and price stability.”
The vote encompassed approval of the statement be-
low to be released at 2:00 p.m.:
“Information received since the Federal
Open Market Committee met in May sug-
gests that economic activity has been ex-
panding at a moderate pace. Labor market
conditions have shown further improve-
ment in recent months, on balance, but the
unemployment rate remains elevated.
Household spending and business fixed in-
vestment advanced, and the housing sector
has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is
restraining economic growth. Partly reflect-
ing transitory influences, inflation has been
Page 10 Federal Open Market Committee_____________________________________________________________________________________________
11. running below the Committee’s longer-run
objective, but longer-term inflation expecta-
tions have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the
Committee seeks to foster maximum em-
ployment and price stability. The Commit-
tee expects that, with appropriate policy ac-
commodation, economic growth will pro-
ceed at a moderate pace and the unem-
ployment rate will gradually decline toward
levels the Committee judges consistent with
its dual mandate. The Committee sees the
downside risks to the outlook for the econ-
omy and the labor market as having dimin-
ished since the fall. The Committee also
anticipates that inflation over the medium
term likely will run at or below its 2 percent
objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery
and to help ensure that inflation, over time,
is at the rate most consistent with its dual
mandate, the Committee decided to contin-
ue purchasing additional agency mortgage-
backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per
month and longer-term Treasury securities
at a pace of $45 billion per month. The
Committee is maintaining its existing policy
of reinvesting principal payments from its
holdings of agency debt and agency mort-
gage-backed securities in agency mortgage-
backed securities and of rolling over matur-
ing Treasury securities at auction. Taken
together, these actions should maintain
downward pressure on longer-term interest
rates, support mortgage markets, and help
to make broader financial conditions more
accommodative.
The Committee will closely monitor incom-
ing information on economic and financial
developments in coming months. The
Committee will continue its purchases of
Treasury and agency mortgage-backed secu-
rities, and employ its other policy tools as
appropriate, until the outlook for the labor
market has improved substantially in a con-
text of price stability. The Committee is
prepared to increase or reduce the pace of
its purchases to maintain appropriate policy
accommodation as the outlook for the labor
market or inflation changes. In determining
the size, pace, and composition of its asset
purchases, the Committee will continue to
take appropriate account of the likely effica-
cy and costs of such purchases as well as the
extent of progress toward its economic ob-
jectives.
To support continued progress toward max-
imum employment and price stability, the
Committee expects that a highly accommo-
dative stance of monetary policy will remain
appropriate for a considerable time after the
asset purchase program ends and the eco-
nomic recovery strengthens. In particular,
the Committee decided to keep the target
range for the federal funds rate at 0 to
¼ percent and currently anticipates that this
exceptionally low range for the federal
funds rate will be appropriate at least as
long as the unemployment rate remains
above 6½ percent, inflation between one
and two years ahead is projected to be no
more than a half percentage point above the
Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and
longer-term inflation expectations continue
to be well anchored. In determining how
long to maintain a highly accommodative
stance of monetary policy, the Committee
will also consider other information, includ-
ing additional measures of labor market
conditions, indicators of inflation pressures
and inflation expectations, and readings on
financial developments. When the Commit-
tee decides to begin to remove policy ac-
commodation, it will take a balanced ap-
proach consistent with its longer-run goals
of maximum employment and inflation of
2 percent.”
Voting for this action: Ben Bernanke, William C.
Dudley, Elizabeth Duke, Charles L. Evans, Jerome H.
Powell, Sarah Bloom Raskin, Eric Rosengren, Jeremy
C. Stein, Daniel K. Tarullo, and Janet L. Yellen.
Voting against this action: James Bullard and Esther
L. George.
Mr. Bullard dissented because he believed that, in light
of recent low readings on inflation, the Committee
should signal more strongly its willingness to defend its
goal of 2 percent inflation. He pointed out that infla-
tion had trended down since the beginning of 2012 and
was now well below target. Going forward, he viewed
it as particularly important for the Committee to moni-
Minutes of the Meeting of June 18–19, 2013 Page 11_____________________________________________________________________________________________
12. tor price developments closely and to adapt its policy in
response to incoming economic information.
Ms. George dissented because she viewed the ongoing
improvement in labor market conditions and in the
outlook as warranting a deliberate statement from the
Committee at this meeting that the pace of its asset
purchases would be reduced in the very near future.
She continued to have concerns about maintaining ag-
gressive monetary stimulus in the face of a growing
economy and pointed to the potential for financial im-
balances to emerge as a result of the high level of mon-
etary accommodation.
It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee
would be held on Tuesday–Wednesday, July 30–31,
2013. The meeting adjourned at 11:25 a.m. on June 19,
2013.
Notation Vote
By notation vote completed on May 21, 2013, the
Committee unanimously approved the minutes of the
FOMC meeting held on April 30–May 1, 2013.
_____________________________
William B. English
Secretary
Page 12 Federal Open Market Committee_____________________________________________________________________________________________
13. Summary of Economic Projections
In conjunction with the June 18–19, 2013, Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, meeting
participants—the 7 members of the Board of Gover-
nors and the 12 presidents of the Federal Reserve
Banks, all of whom participate in the deliberations of
the FOMC—submitted their assessments of real out-
put growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the
target federal funds rate for each year from 2013
through 2015 and over the longer run.¹ Each partici-
pant’s assessment was based on information available
at the time of the meeting plus his or her judgment of
appropriate monetary policy and assumptions about the
factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The
longer-run projections represent each participant’s
judgment of the value to which each variable would be
expected to converge, over time, under appropriate
monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks
to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is
defined as the future path of policy that each partici-
pant deems most likely to foster outcomes for econom-
ic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her indi-
vidual interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s objectives
of maximum employment and stable prices.
_______________________
¹ Although President Pianalto was unable to attend the
June 18–19, 2013, FOMC meeting, she submitted economic
projections.
Overall, FOMC participants projected that, under ap-
propriate monetary policy, the pace of economic re-
covery would gradually pick up over the 2013–15 peri-
od, and inflation would move up from recent very low
readings but remain subdued (table 1 and figure 1).
Almost all of the participants projected that inflation,
as measured by the annual change in the price index for
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), would be
running at or a little below the Committee’s 2 percent
objective in 2015.
As shown in figure 2, most participants judged that
highly accommodative monetary policy was likely to be
warranted over the next few years to support continued
progress toward maximum employment and a gradual
return toward 2 percent inflation. Moreover, all partic-
ipants but one judged that it would be appropriate to
continue purchasing both agency mortgage-backed se-
curities (MBS) and longer-term Treasury securities at
least until later this year.
A majority of participants saw the uncertainty associat-
ed with their outlook for economic growth and the
unemployment rate as similar to that of the past
20 years. An equal number of participants also indicat-
ed that the risks to the outlook for real gross domestic
product (GDP) growth and the unemployment rate
were broadly balanced. Some participants, however,
continued to see downside risks to growth and upside
Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents, June 2013
Percent
Variable
Central tendency1 Range2
2013 2014 2015 Longer run 2013 2014 2015 Longer run
Change in real GDP . . . . . 2.3 to 2.6 3.0 to 3.5 2.9 to 3.6 2.3 to 2.5 2.0 to 2.6 2.2 to 3.6 2.3 to 3.8 2.0 to 3.0
March projection . . . . . 2.3 to 2.8 2.9 to 3.4 2.9 to 3.7 2.3 to 2.5 2.0 to 3.0 2.6 to 3.8 2.5 to 3.8 2.0 to 3.0
Unemployment rate . . . . . 7.2 to 7.3 6.5 to 6.8 5.8 to 6.2 5.2 to 6.0 6.9 to 7.5 6.2 to 6.9 5.7 to 6.4 5.0 to 6.0
March projection . . . . . 7.3 to 7.5 6.7 to 7.0 6.0 to 6.5 5.2 to 6.0 6.9 to 7.6 6.1 to 7.1 5.7 to 6.5 5.0 to 6.0
PCE inflation . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 to 1.2 1.4 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 2.0 0.8 to 1.5 1.4 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.3 2.0
March projection . . . . . 1.3 to 1.7 1.5 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 2.0 1.3 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.1 1.6 to 2.6 2.0
Core PCE inflation3 . . . . . 1.2 to 1.3 1.5 to 1.8 1.7 to 2.0 1.1 to 1.5 1.5 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.3
March projection . . . . . 1.5 to 1.6 1.7 to 2.0 1.8 to 2.1 1.5 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.1 1.7 to 2.6
NOTE: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are from the fourth quarter of the pre-
vious year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index
for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the aver-
age civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant’s projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate
monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under ap-
propriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The March projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Fed-
eral Open Market Committee on March 19–20, 2013.
1. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year.
2. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants’ projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year.
3. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected.
Page 1_____________________________________________________________________________________________
14. Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2013–15 and over the longer run
Change in real GDP
Percent
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-
+
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer
run
Central tendency of projections
Range of projections
Actual
Unemployment rate
Percent
5
6
7
8
9
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer
run
PCE inflation
Percent
1
2
3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer
run
Core PCE inflation
Percent
1
2
3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer
run
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are
annual.
Page 2 Federal Open Market Committee_____________________________________________________________________________________________
15. Figure 2. Overview of FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy
1
3
14
1
Appropriate timing of policy firming
Number of participants
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2013 2014 2015 2016
Appropriate pace of policy firming Percent
Target federal funds rate at year-end
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2013 2014 2015 Longer run
Note: In the upper panel, the height of each bar denotes the number of FOMC participants who judge that, under
appropriate monetary policy, the first increase in the target federal funds rate from its current range of 0 to 1/4 percent
will occur in the specified calendar year. In March 2013, the numbers of FOMC participants who judged that the first
increase in the target federal funds rate would occur in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 were, respectively, 1, 4, 13, and 1.
In the lower panel, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/4 percentage point) of an individual
participant’s judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year
or over the longer run.
Summary of Economic Projections of the Meeting of June 18–19, 2013 Page 3_____________________________________________________________________________________________
16. risks to unemployment. A majority of participants in-
dicated that the uncertainty surrounding their projec-
tions for PCE inflation was similar to historical norms,
and nearly all considered the risks to inflation to be
either broadly balanced or weighted to the downside.
The Outlook for Economic Activity
Participants projected that, conditional on their indi-
vidual assumptions about appropriate monetary policy,
the economy would grow at a faster pace in 2013 than
it had in 2012. They also generally judged that growth
would strengthen further in 2014 and 2015, in most
cases to a rate above their estimates of the longer-run
rate of output growth. Most participants noted that the
high degree of monetary policy accommodation as-
sumed in their projections, continued improvement in
the housing sector and the accompanying rise in
household net worth, and the absence of further fiscal
tightening should result in a pickup in growth; howev-
er, they pointed to the foreign economic outlook as an
ongoing downside risk.
The central tendency of participants’ projections for
real GDP growth was 2.3 to 2.6 percent for 2013,
3.0 to 3.5 percent for 2014, and 2.9 to 3.6 percent for
2015. Most participants noted that their projections
were little changed since March, with the downward
revisions to growth in 2013 reflecting the somewhat
slower-than-anticipated growth in the first half. The
central tendency for the longer-run rate of growth of
real GDP was 2.3 to 2.5 percent, unchanged from
March.
Participants anticipated a gradual decline in the unem-
ployment rate over the forecast period; a large majority
projected that the unemployment rate would not reach
their estimates of its longer-run level before 2016. The
central tendencies of participants’ forecasts for the un-
employment rate were 7.2 to 7.3 percent at the end of
2013, 6.5 to 6.8 percent at the end of 2014, and 5.8 to
6.2 percent at the end of 2015. These projections were
slightly lower than in March, with participants reacting
to recent data indicating that the unemployment rate
had declined by a little more than they had previously
expected. The central tendency of participants’ esti-
mates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment
that would prevail under appropriate monetary policy
and in the absence of further shocks to the economy
was 5.2 to 6.0 percent, the same as in March. Most
participants projected that the unemployment rate
would converge to their estimates of its longer-run
normal rate in five or six years, while some judged that
less time would be needed.
As shown in figures 3.A and 3.B, the distributions of
participants’ views regarding the likely outcomes for
real GDP growth and the unemployment rate were
relatively narrow for 2013. Their projections for eco-
nomic activity were more diverse for 2014 and 2015,
reflecting their individual assessments of appropriate
monetary policy and its economic effects, the likely rate
of improvement in the housing sector and households’
balance sheets, the domestic implications of foreign
economic developments, the prospective path for U.S.
fiscal policy, the extent of structural dislocations to the
labor market, and a number of other factors. The dis-
persion of participants’ projections for 2015 and for the
longer run was little changed relative to March; there
was some reduction in the upper ends of the distribu-
tions in 2013 and 2014 for both real GDP growth and
the unemployment rate.
The Outlook for Inflation
All participants marked down their projections for both
PCE and core PCE inflation in 2013, reflecting the low
readings on inflation so far this year. Participants gen-
erally judged that the recent slowing in inflation partly
reflected transitory factors, and their projections for
inflation under appropriate monetary policy over the
period 2014–15 were only a little lower than in March.
Participants projected that both headline and core infla-
tion would move up but remain subdued, with nearly
all projecting that inflation would be equal to, or
somewhat below, the FOMC’s longer-run objective of
2 percent in each year. Specifically, the central tenden-
cy of participants’ projections for overall inflation, as
measured by the growth in the PCE price index, moved
down to 0.8 to 1.2 percent in 2013 and was 1.4 to
2.0 percent in 2014 and 1.6 to 2.0 percent in 2015. The
central tendency of the forecasts for core inflation
shifted down slightly in 2013 and 2014, to 1.2 to
1.3 percent and 1.5 to 1.8 percent, respectively; the cen-
tral tendency in 2015 was little changed and broadly
similar to that of headline inflation. In discussing fac-
tors likely to return inflation to near the Committee’s
inflation objective of 2 percent, several participants
noted that the reversal of transitory factors currently
holding down inflation would cause inflation to move
up a little in the near term. In addition, many partici-
pants viewed the combination of stable inflation expec-
tations and diminishing resource slack as likely to lead
to a gradual pickup in inflation toward the Committee’s
longer-run objective.
Figures 3.C and 3.D provide information on the diver-
sity of participants’ views about the outlook for infla-
tion. The range of participants’ projections for overall
Page 4 Federal Open Market Committee_____________________________________________________________________________________________
17. Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants’ projections for the change in real GDP, 2013–15 and over the longer run
2013
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8- - - - - - - - - -
2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9
Percent range
June projections
March projections
2014
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8- - - - - - - - - -
2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9
Percent range
2015
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8- - - - - - - - - -
2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9
Percent range
Longer run
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8- - - - - - - - - -
2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9
Percent range
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Summary of Economic Projections of the Meeting of June 18–19, 2013 Page 5_____________________________________________________________________________________________
18. Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants’ projections for the unemployment rate, 2013–15 and over the longer run
2013
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7
Percent range
June projections
March projections
2014
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7
Percent range
2015
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7
Percent range
Longer run
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7
Percent range
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Page 6 Federal Open Market Committee_____________________________________________________________________________________________
19. Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants’ projections for PCE inflation, 2013–15 and over the longer run
2013
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5- - - - - - - - - -
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
Percent range
June projections
March projections
2014
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5- - - - - - - - - -
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
Percent range
2015
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5- - - - - - - - - -
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
Percent range
Longer run
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5- - - - - - - - - -
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
Percent range
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Summary of Economic Projections of the Meeting of June 18–19, 2013 Page 7_____________________________________________________________________________________________
20. Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants’ projections for core PCE inflation, 2013–15
2013
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5- - - - - - - -
1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
Percent range
June projections
March projections
2014
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5- - - - - - - -
1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
Percent range
2015
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5- - - - - - - -
1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
Percent range
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Page 8 Federal Open Market Committee_____________________________________________________________________________________________
21. and core inflation in 2013 shifted down, while those
ranges narrowed in 2014–15. The distributions for
core and overall inflation in 2015 remained concentrat-
ed near the Committee’s longer-run objective, and all
participants continued to project that overall inflation
would converge to the FOMC’s 2 percent goal over the
longer run.
Appropriate Monetary Policy
As indicated in figure 2, most participants judged that
exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate would
remain appropriate for a couple of years. In particular,
14 participants thought that the first increase in the
target federal funds rate would not be warranted until
sometime in 2015, and one judged that policy firming
would likely not be appropriate until 2016. Four partic-
ipants judged that an increase in the federal funds rate
in 2013 or 2014 would be appropriate.
All of the participants who judged that raising the fed-
eral funds rate target would become appropriate in
2015 also projected that the unemployment rate would
decline below 6½ percent during that year and that
inflation would remain near or below 2 percent. In
addition, most of those participants also projected that
a sizable gap between the unemployment rate and the
longer-run normal level of the unemployment rate
would persist until 2015 or later. Three of the four
participants who judged that policy firming should
begin in 2013 or 2014 indicated that, in their judgment,
the Committee would need to act relatively soon in
order to keep inflation near the FOMC’s longer-run
objective of 2 percent and to keep longer-run inflation
expectations well anchored.
Figure 3.E provides the distribution of participants’
judgments regarding the appropriate level of the target
federal funds rate at the end of each calendar year from
2013 to 2015 and over the longer run. As previously
noted, most participants judged that economic condi-
tions would warrant maintaining the current low level
of the federal funds rate at least until 2015. Among the
four participants who saw the federal funds rate leaving
the effective lower bound earlier, their projections for
the federal funds rate at the end of 2014 ranged from
1 to 1½ percent; however, the median for all partici-
pants remained at the effective lower bound. Views on
the appropriate level of the federal funds rate at the end
of 2015 varied, with the range of participants’ projec-
tions a bit narrower than in the March Summary of
Economic Projections and the median value unchanged
at 1 percent.
All participants saw the appropriate target for the fed-
eral funds rate at the end of 2015 as still well below
their assessments of its expected longer-run value. Es-
timates of the longer-run target federal funds rate
ranged from 3¼ to 4½ percent, reflecting the Commit-
tee’s inflation objective of 2 percent and participants’
individual judgments about the appropriate longer-run
level of the real federal funds rate in the absence of
further shocks to the economy.
Participants also described their views regarding the
appropriate path of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.
Given their respective economic outlooks, all partici-
pants but one judged that it would be appropriate to
continue purchasing both agency MBS and longer-term
Treasury securities. About half of these participants
indicated that it likely would be appropriate to end as-
set purchases late this year. Many other participants
anticipated that it likely would be appropriate to con-
tinue purchases into 2014. Several participants empha-
sized that the asset purchase program was effective in
supporting the economic expansion, that the benefits
continued to exceed the costs, or that continuing pur-
chases would be necessary to achieve a substantial im-
provement in the outlook for the labor market. A few
participants, however, indicated that the Committee
could best foster its dual objectives and limit the poten-
tial costs of the program by slowing, or stopping, its
purchases at the June meeting.
Key factors informing participants’ views of the appro-
priate path for monetary policy included their judg-
ments regarding the values of the unemployment rate
and other labor market indicators that would be con-
sistent with maximum employment; the extent to
which the economy fell short of maximum employ-
ment and the extent to which inflation was running
below the Committee’s longer-term objective of 2 per-
cent; and the implications of alternative policy paths for
the likely extent of progress, over the medium-term, in
returning employment and inflation to mandate-
consistent levels. A couple of participants noted that
persistent headwinds and somewhat slower productivi-
ty growth since the end of the recession made their
assessments of the longer-run normal level of the fed-
eral funds rate, and thus of the appropriate path for the
federal funds rate, lower than would otherwise be the
case.
Uncertainty and Risks
A majority of participants reported that they saw the
levels of uncertainty about their projections for real
GDP growth and unemployment as broadly similar to
Summary of Economic Projections of the Meeting of June 18–19, 2013 Page 9_____________________________________________________________________________________________
22. Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants’ projections for the target federal funds rate, 2013–15 and over the longer run
2013
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.00 0.38 0.63 0.88 1.13 1.38 1.63 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.63 2.88 3.13 3.38 3.63 3.88 4.13 4.38- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
0.37 0.62 0.87 1.12 1.37 1.62 1.87 2.12 2.37 2.62 2.87 3.12 3.37 3.62 3.87 4.12 4.37 4.62
Percent range
June projections
March projections
2014
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.00 0.38 0.63 0.88 1.13 1.38 1.63 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.63 2.88 3.13 3.38 3.63 3.88 4.13 4.38- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
0.37 0.62 0.87 1.12 1.37 1.62 1.87 2.12 2.37 2.62 2.87 3.12 3.37 3.62 3.87 4.12 4.37 4.62
Percent range
2015
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.00 0.38 0.63 0.88 1.13 1.38 1.63 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.63 2.88 3.13 3.38 3.63 3.88 4.13 4.38- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
0.37 0.62 0.87 1.12 1.37 1.62 1.87 2.12 2.37 2.62 2.87 3.12 3.37 3.62 3.87 4.12 4.37 4.62
Percent range
Longer run
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.00 0.38 0.63 0.88 1.13 1.38 1.63 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.63 2.88 3.13 3.38 3.63 3.88 4.13 4.38- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
0.37 0.62 0.87 1.12 1.37 1.62 1.87 2.12 2.37 2.62 2.87 3.12 3.37 3.62 3.87 4.12 4.37 4.62
Percent range
Note: The target federal funds rate is measured as the level of the target rate at the end of the calendar year or
in the longer run.
Page 10 Federal Open Market Committee_____________________________________________________________________________________________
23. the norm during the previous 20 years, with the re-
mainder generally indicating that they saw higher uncer-
tainty about these economic outcomes (figure 4).2 In
March, a similar number of participants had seen the
level of uncertainty about real GDP growth and the
unemployment rate as above average. A majority of
participants continued to judge that the risks to their
forecasts of real GDP growth and unemployment were
broadly balanced, with the remainder generally indicat-
ing that they saw the risks to their forecasts for real
GDP growth as weighted to the downside and for un-
employment as weighted to the upside. The main fac-
tors cited as contributing to the uncertainty and balance
of risks about economic outcomes were the limits on
the ability of monetary policy to offset the effects of
adverse shocks when short-term interest rates are near
their effective lower bound, as well as challenges with
forecasting the path of fiscal policy and economic and
financial developments abroad.
Participants reported little change in their assessments
of the level of uncertainty and the balance of risks
around their forecasts for overall PCE inflation and
core inflation. Fourteen participants judged the levels
of uncertainty associated with their forecasts for those
inflation measures to be broadly similar to, or lower
than, historical norms; the same number saw the risks
to those projections as broadly balanced. A few partic-
ipants highlighted the likely role played by the Commit-
tee’s adoption of a 2 percent inflation goal or its com-
mitment to maintaining accommodative monetary poli-
cy as contributing to the recent stability of longer-term
2 Table 2 provides estimates of the forecast uncertainty for
the change in real GDP, the unemployment rate, and total
consumer price inflation over the period from 1993 through
2012. At the end of this summary, the box “Forecast Uncer-
tainty” discusses the sources and interpretation of uncertain-
ty in the economic forecasts and explains the approach used
to assess the uncertainty and risks attending the participants’
projections.
inflation expectations and, hence, the relatively low
level of uncertainty. Four participants saw the risks to
their inflation forecasts as tilted to the downside, re-
flecting, for example, risks of disinflation that could
arise from adverse shocks to the economy that policy
would have limited scope to offset in the current envi-
ronment. Conversely, one participant saw the risks to
inflation as weighted to the upside, citing the present
highly accommodative stance of monetary policy and
concerns about the Committee’s ability to shift to a less
accommodative policy stance when it becomes appro-
priate to do so.
Table 2. Average historical projection error ranges
Percentage points
Variable 2013 2014 2015
Change in real GDP1 . . . . . . . . ±1.0 ±1.6 ±1.8
Unemployment rate1 . . . . . . . . . ±0.4 ±1.2 ±1.8
Total consumer prices2 . . . . . . . ±0.8 ±1.0 ±1.0
NOTE: Error ranges shown are measured as plus or minus the root
mean squared error of projections for 1993 through 2012 that were
released in the summer by various private and government forecasters.
As described in the box “Forecast Uncertainty,” under certain assump-
tions, there is about a 70 percent probability that actual outcomes for
real GDP, unemployment, and consumer prices will be in ranges implied
by the average size of projection errors made in the past. Further infor-
mation is in David Reifschneider and Peter Tulip (2007), “Gauging the
Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook from Historical Forecasting
Errors,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60 (Washing-
ton: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, November).
1. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
2. Measure is the overall consumer price index, the price measure
that has been most widely used in government and private economic
forecasts. Projection is percent change, fourth quarter of the previous
year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
Summary of Economic Projections of the Meeting of June 18–19, 2013 Page 11_____________________________________________________________________________________________
24. Figure 4. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections
Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Lower Broadly Higher
similar
June projections
March projections
Uncertainty about the unemployment rate
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Lower Broadly Higher
similar
Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Lower Broadly Higher
similar
Uncertainty about core PCE inflation
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Lower Broadly Higher
similar
Risks to GDP growth
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Weighted to Broadly Weighted to
downside balanced upside
June projections
March projections
Risks to the unemployment rate
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Weighted to Broadly Weighted to
downside balanced upside
Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Weighted to Broadly Weighted to
downside balanced upside
Risks to core PCE inflation
Number of participants
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Weighted to Broadly Weighted to
downside balanced upside
Note: For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box “Forecast Uncertainty.” Defini-
tions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Page 12 Federal Open Market Committee_____________________________________________________________________________________________
25. Forecast Uncertainty
The economic projections provided by
the members of the Board of Governors and
the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks
inform discussions of monetary policy among
policymakers and can aid public understand-
ing of the basis for policy actions. Consider-
able uncertainty attends these projections,
however. The economic and statistical models
and relationships used to help produce eco-
nomic forecasts are necessarily imperfect de-
scriptions of the real world, and the future
path of the economy can be affected by myr-
iad unforeseen developments and events.
Thus, in setting the stance of monetary policy,
participants consider not only what appears to
be the most likely economic outcome as em-
bodied in their projections, but also the range
of alternative possibilities, the likelihood of
their occurring, and the potential costs to the
economy should they occur.
Table 2 summarizes the average historical
accuracy of a range of forecasts, including
those reported in past Monetary Policy Reports
and those prepared by the Federal Reserve
Board’s staff in advance of meetings of the
Federal Open Market Committee. The pro-
jection error ranges shown in the table il-
lustrate the considerable uncertainty associat-
ed with economic forecasts. For example,
suppose a participant projects that real gross
domestic product (GDP) and total consumer
prices will rise steadily at annual rates of, re-
spectively, 3 percent and 2 percent. If the
uncertainty attending those projections is simi-
lar to that experienced in the past and the risks
around the projections are broadly balanced,
the numbers reported in table 2 would imply a
probability of about 70 percent that actual
GDP would expand within a range of 2.0 to
4.0 percent in the current year, 1.4 to 4.6 per-
cent in the second year, and 1.2 to 4.8 percent
in the third year. The corresponding 70 percent
confidence intervals for overall inflation would
be 1.2 to 2.8 percent in the current year and
1.0 to 3.0 percent in the second and third years.
Because current conditions may differ
from those that prevailed, on average, over his-
tory, participants provide judgments as to
whether the uncertainty attached to their pro-
jections of each variable is greater than, smaller
than, or broadly similar to typical levels of
forecast uncertainty in the past, as shown in
table 2. Participants also provide judgments as
to whether the risks to their projections are
weighted to the upside, are weighted to the
downside, or are broadly balanced. That is,
participants judge whether each variable is
more likely to be above or below their projec-
tions of the most likely outcome. These judg-
ments about the uncertainty and the risks at-
tending each participant’s projections are dis-
tinct from the diversity of participants’ views
about the most likely outcomes. Forecast un-
certainty is concerned with the risks associated
with a particular projection rather than with
divergences across a number of different pro-
jections.
As with real activity and inflation, the out-
look for the future path of the federal funds
rate is subject to considerable uncertainty. This
uncertainty arises primarily because each partic-
ipant’s assessment of the appropriate stance of
monetary policy depends importantly on the
evolution of real activity and inflation over
time. If economic conditions evolve in an un-
expected manner, then assessments of the ap-
propriate setting of the federal funds rate
would change from that point forward.
Summary of Economic Projections of the Meeting of June 18–19, 2013 Page 13_____________________________________________________________________________________________