Over the past thirty years the neutral real interest rate across developed economies has declined substantially. Evidence suggests that secular rather than transitory factors are driving its decline. A lower neutral interest rate implies that the cumulative amount of tightening required for monetary policy to become neutral is much smaller than previously thought.
Olivier Desbarres - Hawkish Pendulum May Have Swung Too FarOlivier Desbarres
I have long argued that the risk of a collapse in global economic growth and inflation was over-stated and more recently that major central banks had likely reached an important inflexion point.
A global recession and global deflation have seemingly been averted and central bank policy rate cuts and extensions of quantitative easing programs have become rarer occurrences.
Donald Trump’s election has turbo-charged expectations that reflationary US-centric policies will drive global, and in particular US growth and inflation in 2017, that the Fed’s hiking cycle will step up a gear and that US yields and equities and the dollar will climb further, heaping pressure on emerging economies and asset prices.
But analysts and markets may now be getting ahead of themselves.
My core reasoning is that US inflation may not rise as fast expected, due to lags in the implementation of Trump’s planned fiscal policy loosening and immigration curbs, residual slack in the US labour market and disinflationary impact of higher US yields and a stronger dollar.
As a result, the FOMC, which will see important personnel changes in early 2017, may argue that the market has already done some its work and not be as hawkish as expected.
In this scenario, US short-end rates could lose ground while long-end rates continue to push higher, resulting in a steepening of a still not very steep US rates curve.
One corollary is that factors which have wakened the euro may lose traction as 2017 progresses.
The Hitchhiker's Guide to Yellen's Speech
We spent all week waiting anxiously to see what Our Glorious Leader would say only to get a confused mash-up of central bank water-cooler conversation.
If you want to know what she really said - and, more importantly, didn't say - you might like to read this translation.
SandPointe
Investment Perspective
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Roger E. Brinner, PhD
Chief Market Strategist and Co-founding Partner
September 2014
Olivier Desbarres - Hawkish Pendulum May Have Swung Too FarOlivier Desbarres
I have long argued that the risk of a collapse in global economic growth and inflation was over-stated and more recently that major central banks had likely reached an important inflexion point.
A global recession and global deflation have seemingly been averted and central bank policy rate cuts and extensions of quantitative easing programs have become rarer occurrences.
Donald Trump’s election has turbo-charged expectations that reflationary US-centric policies will drive global, and in particular US growth and inflation in 2017, that the Fed’s hiking cycle will step up a gear and that US yields and equities and the dollar will climb further, heaping pressure on emerging economies and asset prices.
But analysts and markets may now be getting ahead of themselves.
My core reasoning is that US inflation may not rise as fast expected, due to lags in the implementation of Trump’s planned fiscal policy loosening and immigration curbs, residual slack in the US labour market and disinflationary impact of higher US yields and a stronger dollar.
As a result, the FOMC, which will see important personnel changes in early 2017, may argue that the market has already done some its work and not be as hawkish as expected.
In this scenario, US short-end rates could lose ground while long-end rates continue to push higher, resulting in a steepening of a still not very steep US rates curve.
One corollary is that factors which have wakened the euro may lose traction as 2017 progresses.
The Hitchhiker's Guide to Yellen's Speech
We spent all week waiting anxiously to see what Our Glorious Leader would say only to get a confused mash-up of central bank water-cooler conversation.
If you want to know what she really said - and, more importantly, didn't say - you might like to read this translation.
SandPointe
Investment Perspective
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Roger E. Brinner, PhD
Chief Market Strategist and Co-founding Partner
September 2014
Do you or your users need information on the South's unemployment, housing and more? We’ll share strategies to enhance expertise with finding essential resources about these timely topics. (Sponsored by GLA GIIG.) Presented at GaCOMO12 by Patricia Kenly and Bette Finn.
Fed must relent. Our expectations now is for a state dependent (global financial conditions to stabilise, cushion rising debt repayment burden and allowing domestic leverage to level off, coupled with still moderate economic growth/inflation, policy options to widen positively globally, especially in China) Fed relent with scope for a final 25-50bps, if any (pause otherwise), in late 2019/2020, should the cycle extents, with the FFR hitting cycle terminal at 2.75-3.00%.
Degroof Petercam Asset Management's chief economist and asset allocator look into whether the reflation trade is for real and inflation is back in the cards.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
Monetary Policy: Basic Overview of the 'Weapons of Monetary Policy' Use the specific power points and activities on Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to support your knowledge
The IMF has based much of it policies on a theoretical framework developed by Polak, Mundell, and Fleming over fifty years ago. Their models were based on a set of assumptions that a do not reflect the economic realities in the developing countries. The IMF’s insistence on demand management policies created policy “blind spots” that prevented it’s acknowledgment of causes of macroeconomic imbalances other than government fiscal mismanagement. There has been some movement toward reform by the Fund and better alignment with its sister organization, the World Bank. Just as the East Asian crisis momentum for change, recent events seem to have created a significant shift in the thinking of the Fund’s staff and policy analyst. The recent global crisis has caused the Fund to acknowledge the limits of monetary policy and bring fiscal policy “center stage” as an important countercyclical tool. In short, the crisis has “exposed flaws in the pre-crisis policy framework” [Carlos E. Guice, Sr.]
Ready for the next recession? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic frameworkResolutionFoundation
The UK economy is facing its highest risk of recession since 2007, as Brexit uncertainty and global instability loom large. When the next downturn will arrive is impossible to say, but now is a good time to ensure that we are ready to respond. Crucially the world has moved on since we last prepared our framework – the tools we used to fight the last recession won’t necessarily work for the next one.
How severe are the constraints of near zero interest rates on monetary policy? What is the potential for Quantitative Easing to replay its major financial crisis role? And while there is a generally accepted case for a wider role for fiscal policy, are we ready to deploy it as effectively as possible?
The Resolution Foundation is setting up a new Macroeconomic Policy Unit to get to the bottom of these big economic questions and more. To mark its launch, the Foundation hosted an event that brought together leading macroeconomists and policy makers. The launch included the publishing of a comprehensive assessment of the UK’s current macroeconomic policy framework. Speakers included MPC Member Gertjan Vlieghe and Head of Bloomberg Economics Stephanie Flanders.
Speakers:
Gertjan Vlieghe, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee
Stephanie Flanders, Head of Bloomberg Economics
Kate Barker, Former MPC member
Rupert Harrison, Portfolio Manager at Blackrock
James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation
Torsten Bell, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation (Chair)
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
At an event at its central London Headquarters, chaired by The Times’ Economics Editor Philip Aldrick, Resolution Foundation Chief Economist Matthew Whittaker presented new analysis on the impact of monetary policy during the downturn. Former MPC member Kate Barker and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times Martin Wolf then debated the future role of monetary policy, before taking part in a wider Q&A.
Do you or your users need information on the South's unemployment, housing and more? We’ll share strategies to enhance expertise with finding essential resources about these timely topics. (Sponsored by GLA GIIG.) Presented at GaCOMO12 by Patricia Kenly and Bette Finn.
Fed must relent. Our expectations now is for a state dependent (global financial conditions to stabilise, cushion rising debt repayment burden and allowing domestic leverage to level off, coupled with still moderate economic growth/inflation, policy options to widen positively globally, especially in China) Fed relent with scope for a final 25-50bps, if any (pause otherwise), in late 2019/2020, should the cycle extents, with the FFR hitting cycle terminal at 2.75-3.00%.
Degroof Petercam Asset Management's chief economist and asset allocator look into whether the reflation trade is for real and inflation is back in the cards.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
Monetary Policy: Basic Overview of the 'Weapons of Monetary Policy' Use the specific power points and activities on Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to support your knowledge
The IMF has based much of it policies on a theoretical framework developed by Polak, Mundell, and Fleming over fifty years ago. Their models were based on a set of assumptions that a do not reflect the economic realities in the developing countries. The IMF’s insistence on demand management policies created policy “blind spots” that prevented it’s acknowledgment of causes of macroeconomic imbalances other than government fiscal mismanagement. There has been some movement toward reform by the Fund and better alignment with its sister organization, the World Bank. Just as the East Asian crisis momentum for change, recent events seem to have created a significant shift in the thinking of the Fund’s staff and policy analyst. The recent global crisis has caused the Fund to acknowledge the limits of monetary policy and bring fiscal policy “center stage” as an important countercyclical tool. In short, the crisis has “exposed flaws in the pre-crisis policy framework” [Carlos E. Guice, Sr.]
Ready for the next recession? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic frameworkResolutionFoundation
The UK economy is facing its highest risk of recession since 2007, as Brexit uncertainty and global instability loom large. When the next downturn will arrive is impossible to say, but now is a good time to ensure that we are ready to respond. Crucially the world has moved on since we last prepared our framework – the tools we used to fight the last recession won’t necessarily work for the next one.
How severe are the constraints of near zero interest rates on monetary policy? What is the potential for Quantitative Easing to replay its major financial crisis role? And while there is a generally accepted case for a wider role for fiscal policy, are we ready to deploy it as effectively as possible?
The Resolution Foundation is setting up a new Macroeconomic Policy Unit to get to the bottom of these big economic questions and more. To mark its launch, the Foundation hosted an event that brought together leading macroeconomists and policy makers. The launch included the publishing of a comprehensive assessment of the UK’s current macroeconomic policy framework. Speakers included MPC Member Gertjan Vlieghe and Head of Bloomberg Economics Stephanie Flanders.
Speakers:
Gertjan Vlieghe, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee
Stephanie Flanders, Head of Bloomberg Economics
Kate Barker, Former MPC member
Rupert Harrison, Portfolio Manager at Blackrock
James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation
Torsten Bell, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation (Chair)
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
At an event at its central London Headquarters, chaired by The Times’ Economics Editor Philip Aldrick, Resolution Foundation Chief Economist Matthew Whittaker presented new analysis on the impact of monetary policy during the downturn. Former MPC member Kate Barker and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times Martin Wolf then debated the future role of monetary policy, before taking part in a wider Q&A.
What recent and past actions have Canada and the US taken to counter.pdfmeejuhaszjasmynspe52
What recent and past actions have Canada and the US taken to counteract their exchange rates
with the economy in such distress over the past 10 years?
Solution
Since 2007, the world has experienced a period of severe financial stress, not seen since the time
of the Great Depression. This crisis started with the collapse of the subprime residential
mortgage market in the United States and spread to the rest of the world through exposure to
U.S. real estate assets, often in the form of complex financial derivatives, and a collapse in global
trade. Many countries were significantly affected by these adverse shocks, causing systemic
banking crises in a number of countries, despite extraordinary policy interventions. Systemic
banking crises are disruptive events not only to financial systems but to the economy as a whole.
Such crises are not specific to the recent past or specific countries – almost no country has
avoided the experience and some have had multiple banking crises. While the banking crises of
the past have differed in terms of underlying causes, triggers, and economic impact, they share
many commonalities. Banking crises are often preceded by prolonged periods of high credit
growth and are often associated with large imbalances in the balance sheets of the private sector,
such as maturity mismatches or exchange rate risk, that ultimately translate into credit risk for
the banking sector.
Crisis management starts with the containment of liquidity pressures through liquidity support,
guarantees on bank liabilities, deposit freezes, or bank holidays. This containment phase is
followed by a resolution phase during which typically a broad range of measures (such as capital
injections, asset purchases, and guarantees) are taken to restructure banks and reignite economic
growth. It is intrinsically difficult to compare the success of crisis resolution policies given
differences across countries and time in the size of the initial shock to the financial system, the
size of the financial system, the quality of institutions, and the intensity and scope of policy
interventions. With this caveat we now compare policy responses during the recent crisis episode
with those of the past. The policy responses during the 2007-2009 crises episodes were broadly
similar to those used in the past. First, liquidity pressures were contained through liquidity
support and guarantees on bank liabilities. Like the crises of the past, during which bank
holidays and deposit freezes have rarely been used as containment policies, we have no records
of the use of bank holidays during the recent wave of crises, while a deposit freeze was used only
in the case of Latvia for deposits in Parex Bank. On the resolution side, a wide array of
instruments was used this time, including asset purchases, asset guarantees, and equity injections.
All these measures have been used in the past, but this time around they seem to have been put in
place quicker (for detailed informatio.
If U.S. politics do not derail the recovery, pent-up demand can drive faster economic growth. Fixed-income outflows appear likely to continue, pushing rates higher.
Global Economic Update & Strategic Investment Outlook Q2 2014Cohen and Company
An informative overview of the current state of the global economy and the many factors that impact investment strategies, and a look at domestic economic indicators that may impact them.
MACROECONOMIC FOCUS AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS .docxsmile790243
MACROECONOMIC FOCUS AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 1
MACROECONOMIC FOCUS AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 2
Milestone Two
Macroeconomic Focus and Industry Analysis
NOTE: highlighted any change you made. Know which one is revised. Thanks.
Note: See all highlighted on yellow comments and revised it.THANKS.
Macroeconomic Focus and Industry Analysis
Macroeconomic forecast of the monetary school of thought.
From a monetarist perspective, regulation of the flow and circulation of money is important in determining and influencing preferred economic conditions in the United States. Reducing the circulation of money in the economy has many effects on the macroeconomic environment and determines the activities of other stakeholders in the financial market. From a monetarist school of thought, the government has sole responsibility to both country and citizens in ensuring favorable monetary policies are implemented that are akin to the prevailing economic conditions through the control of inflation and prevention of deflation in the country (Fair, 2011).
Reducing the supply of money in the economy has effects on the macro-economic Cory Kanth:
This point is not clear. It needs clarification in terms of better explanation.
environment as earlier mentioned. Reducing money circulation has both short run and a long run effect that shift practices in the economic environment. For instance, consumer spending is affected by the implementation of monetary policies. When the government implements monetary policies that do not favor money circulation, consumer spending capabilities are significantly reduced (Fair, 2011). The reduction in the spending is due to the reduced flow of money in the financial market which limits the funds accessible to consumers in the market. This policy is usually exercised in a bid to control inflation in the market where prices go up due to increased demand catalyzed by the availability of money in the hands of the spenders.
Reducing the growth of money circulation from a monetary perspective is empirical in determining the cost of labor. When there is a circulation of money in the market, individuals can opt for willing unemployment due to the availability of funds through other sources other than the low paying jobs (Gnimassoun & Mignon, 2015). Further analysis on the effect of reducing money circulation is the government stabilizes the prices of labor meaning little choice is left for personnel who may discriminate employment due to reduced wages or low salaries.
Investment spending is a factor directly affected by the increase in interest rates. This is because investors avoid high lending rates due to high interests that are amassed over operational periods. Moreover, increased lending rates affect investment spending since capital and ...
AnsA) When financial markets stood on the verge of collapse in th.pdfsutharbharat59
Ans:
A) When financial markets stood on the verge of collapse in the summer of 2008, two of the
worlds most important central banks, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, began
considering unorthodox policy measures. They turned to Quantitative Easing, or QE: injecting
money into the economy by purchasing assets from the private sector, in the hope of boosting
spending and staving off the threat of deflation. These were desperate measures for desperate
times.
With signs of a fragile economic recovery gathering enough momentum to reassure
policymakers in the US, the policy was expected to be wound down. But in a move that caught
commentators off guard, the Fed instead committed to continue with its existing level of asset
purchases. For the foreseeable future, at least, QE is here to stay. What began as a short-term
crisis measure has now become a key component of Anglo-American growth strategies. Its
important, then, to take stock of QE and the central role it has played within the Anglo-American
response to the financial crisis.
The way the Fed led the policy response to the financial crisis is important in two ways. First, it
reflects the extent to which the Anglo-American economies have become financialised: credit-
debt relations are pervasive throughout all facets of contemporary economic activity and there
has been a deepening, extension and deregulation of financial markets commensurate with this
development. In that context, with the increased competitiveness, scale and global integration of
financial markets intensifying the risk of financial instability, the crisis management capacities of
central banks have become increasingly important.
Second, central bank leadership of the policy response also reflects a key feature of neoliberal
political economy in practice. Despite all the rhetoric of free markets, competition and
deregulation that has been the mainstay of neoliberalism, there is a central contradiction at its
heart: neoliberalism has been extremely reliant upon the active interventions of central banks
within supposedly free markets.
The crisis has been warehoused on the expanding balance sheets of central banks, demonstrating
just how much scope for policy manoeuvre there is when governing elites want it. Government
debt and private assets, including toxic mortgage-backed securities, have been indefinitely
transferred onto central bank accounts. This strategy highlights the role of arbitrary accounting
processes, shaped by state institutions, at the heart of supposedly free market economies.
Given this room for manoeuvre, there is no doubt that a much more expansionary fiscal policy
and a progressive taxation system could have been implemented in response to the crisis, but that
response is foreclosed by the ideological confines of the prevailing neoliberal orthodoxy. Instead,
we have monetary expansion and fiscal austerity.
Incubated within the crisis conditions of the 1970s, the neoliberal revolution in the West.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Signs of inflation will raise the stakes for the Fed’s policy communications. Favorable conditions for leveraged strategies could reverse quickly. Reasonable valuations and the Fed’s policy goals continue to support risk assets.
Question 1Response 1Development inside and out effects t.docxaudeleypearl
Question 1:
Response 1:
Development inside and out effects the entire country's economy. It impacts the managing body, regardless the clearly irrelevant subtleties in the average person's dependably life. Both a conditions and clear deferred results of how the economy is getting along, swelling has the two its fans and spoilers. Distinctive envisions that particular degrees of swelling are helpful for a prospering economy, yet that progressively critical rates raise concerns. It can degrade the money basically and, at logically lamentable, has been a key part to subsidences.
Swelling, as referenced, is the rate a worth ascensions, and fundamentally how much the dollar is worth at a given moment concerning checking. The idea behind swelling being an impact for good in the economy is that a reasonable enough rate can nudge financial movement without debasing the money so much that it ends up being basically vain (Kohn, 2006).
Swelling can in like manner falter from asset for asset. Subordinate upon the season, the expense of gas could go up independently from with everything considered headway as it routinely does as summer moves close. In reality, there is even a term - focus improvement - for swelling that parts in everything except for sustenance and imperativeness (gas and oil), as these regions have separate factors that add to them. There are a wide degree of sorts of swelling, subordinate upon what remarkable is being viewed comparatively as what the development rate truly is by all accounts. For example, what happens if the swelling rate is well over the Fed's normal goal? At a higher rate, yet still in the single digits, that is known as walking swelling. It is seen as concerning yet sensible (Ball, 2006).
Swelling is generally depicted reliant on its rate and causes. By and large, Inflation happens in an economy when vitality for thing and experiences outmaneuvers the supply of yield. in this manner, clarifications behind Inflation have different sides, the intrigue side and supply side. The widely inclusive activity of hazard premiums in driving enlargement pay over the scope of advancing years is dependable with secured budgetary improvement and inside and out oblige cash related procedure events in the moved economies. The degree for further fitting budgetary enabling seen with money related stars seems to have declined amidst the enough low advance charges and gigantic monetary records of national banks (Bodie, 2016).
In relentless time, the correspondence of perils has wound up being constantly phenomenal, the general point of view has lit up, and money related conditions have engaged on net. With the work superstar proceeding to reinforce, and GDP improvement expected to keep up a vital good ways from back in the consequent quarter, it likely will be fitting soon to change the affiliation supports rate. Likewise, if the economy propels as shown by the SEP concentrate way, the affiliation supports rate will probably app ...
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee has embarked on another round of planned asset purchases. In its November 3 policy statement, the FOMC wrote that it expects to buy another $600 billion in long-term Treasuries by the end of 2Q11 ($75 billion per month), in addition to the $35 billion per month in reinvested principal payments from its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities. There has been much criticism of the move in the financial press. Certainly, there are risks in the Fed’s strategy. However, it’s hardly reckless or ill-advised.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
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how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
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Monetary Policy and its Impact on Financial Assets
1. 1
Monetary Policy and its
Impact on Financial Assets
September 9, 2016
Over the past few months, members of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have been
signaling a change in their views regarding the current stance of monetary policy. In a recent article1
Ben
Bernanke the former Fed President has made the case that the Fed’s shift in policy reflects structural
changes in the US economy – not fluctuations in monthly economic data releases. This shift in thinking
explains the recent dovish views of several FOMC members and their willingness to hold interest rates
lower for a longer period of time than previously anticipated. More importantly, it also explains why
interest rates in the current cycle do not have to rise by as much as past cycles.
In this note we explain in detail what has changed in the Fed’s monetary policy framework and why. We
focus particularly in the decline of the equilibrium real interest rate over the past thirty years and attempt
to account for the factors that have driven this decline.
Prolonged periods of low interest rates have potential side effects, especially for the pricing and riskiness of
financial assets. Policymakers are aware of these side effects, therefore the current low rate environment
will not continue forever.
The exact process of how policy makers exit the current low rate environment will have profound impact
on financial assets and stock markets in particular. Empirical evidence suggests that over the past twenty
years the impact of monetary policy decisions on equity markets has been substantial and anticipated by
equity markets prior to policy announcements.
Changes in the Fed’s monetary policy framework
The shift in policy comes from significant revisions in the expected long-run values of three key economic
variables:
The potential output growth y*, which can be thought of as an estimate of the economy’s
attainable rate of growth in the long run when resources are fully utilized;
The “natural” rate of unemployment u*, which is the rate of unemployment that can be sustained
in the long run without generating inflationary or deflationary pressures; and
The “neutral” federal funds rate r*, which is the level of interest rates consistent with stable, long-
term non-inflationary growth.
Estimates for all three variables have been revised meaningfully lower relative to their levels in 2012. The
potential output growth y* is expected to be 1.8%-2.0% per year vs. 2.3%-2.5% in 2012, the natural rate of
unemployment u* 4.7%-5.0% vs. 5.2-6.0% and the neutral federal funds rate r* 3.0% vs. 4.25%.
For understanding future monetary policy, the interesting question is why the views of the FOMC have
changed and why now, given that all three variables are largely out of the control of the central bank2
. In
his article Ben Bernanke hints at the main reason for the shift: “The changing views of FOMC participants
(and of most outside economists) follow pretty directly from persistent errors in forecasting economic
1
Bernanke, B., (2016): “The Fed's shifting perspective on the economy and its implications for monetary policy", Ben
Bernanke's Blog,
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/08/08/the-feds-shifting-perspective-on-the-economy-and-its-
implications-for-monetary-policy/
2
We thank Ray Zemon for stimulating discussions on this issue.
2. QUARTERLY LETTER Q2 - 2016 KI CAPITAL GMBH
2
developments in recent years” (emphasis is ours)3
. In other words, the Fed has been surprised by both
economic growth and wage growth being persistently below their expectations. The US potential output
growth y* has been reduced as the pace of productivity and labor supply growth have slowed significantly.
And the fact that inflation has been lower than forecasts in recent years despite very low unemployment
rates implies that the natural rate of unemployment u* is lower than previously thought.
As a result, the FOMC views the current accommodative monetary policy as appropriate for this stage of
the business cycle. This is a departure from the pre-2008 monetary policy reaction function. The Fed will
maintain the current monetary policy until growth meets their expectations. But this is nonsensical as the
Fed has no ability to influence potential GDP growth or the natural rate of unemployment!
Therefore maintaining the current monetary policy requires a (short-term) rational justification for doing
so. Several such justifications have been provided by members of the FOMC, all of them consistent with the
belief that Fed actions should in no way lead to negative surprises in financial markets.
Of these justifications, the lower neutral real fed funds rate is the most important one. It implies that the
actual real federal funds rate is only modestly below the neutral real rate and hence the present stance of
monetary policy should be viewed as modestly accommodative. A lower value of r* has two big
implications for monetary policy. Firstly, current policy is not as accommodative as previously thought since
the actual real federal funds rate is only modestly below the neutral real rate. Second, the pace of
monetary policy tightening required for reaching the neutral fed funds rate can be slower as the “distance”
to target that the funds rate need to travel is now shorter.
Another justification for the shift in monetary policy comes from the fact that inflation isn’t rising, despite
the fact that current monetary policy continues to be accommodative. This implies that the economy still
has significant underutilized resources and is currently growing below potential. Such thinking ignores that
consumer prices are sticky and that monetary policy impacts inflation with a significant lag.
A final justification comes from external factors, namely the importance of global deflation risks coming
from China and Europe4
. Deflation risks imply a prolonged period of aggressively easy monetary policy
outside the US, and consequently a stronger US dollar. The Fed cannot ignore the impact of the USD in
setting US interest rates. Effectively the US equilibrium interest rate has been reduced by events overseas.
The equilibrium real interest rate (natural rate)
One of the most important variables in setting interest rates is the equilibrium real interest rate. The
concept was introduced in the late nineteenth century by the Swedish economist Knut Wicksell. It is
defined as the real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) interest rate consistent with the economy operating at its full
potential. This definition takes a “longer-run” perspective; it refers to the level of real interest rates
expected to prevail, say, 10 years in the future, and is not concerned with the impact of transitory shocks
on aggregate supply or demand.
Estimating the natural rate of interest is difficult because it changes over time due to various factors, some
of which are unobservable5
. Furthermore, the natural rate exhibits no clear tendency to revert to a fixed
long-run mean (it is non-stationary). As a result, estimates of the natural rate are highly uncertain.
Nevertheless, over the past few years, economists have made significant progress in modeling and
understanding the behavior of the natural rate.
3
Bernanke, B., (2016), ibid.
4
Gavyn Davies (2016): “What caused the Fed's dovish turn”, Fulcrum Research Note.
5
Hamilton, James D., et.al. (2015) : “The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future.” Presented at the
U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, February 27 (revised May 2016).
https://research.chicagobooth.edu/igm/usmpf/2015.aspx
3. QUARTERLY LETTER Q2 - 2016 KI CAPITAL GMBH
3
The following graph shows estimates of the natural rate for the US using the so called Laubach-Williams
model6
. It also shows the real Fed Funds rate (deflated using the Core PCE measure of inflation).
Source: Laubach & Williams (2015)
What is striking is the significant decline of the natural rate over the past thirty years and especially in the
aftermath of the global financial crisis. Current estimates of the natural interest rate in the US are close to
zero. Large declines in the natural rate of interest have also occurred in other developed economies,
Canada, the Euro Area and the United Kingdom7
. This implies that global factors – rather than country
specific ones – are the likely drivers of the decline in the natural rate.
Historically economists attributed changes in the natural rate to changes in the trend growth of an
economy. Whilst global trend growth has indeed slowed across economies, its impact cannot account for
the magnitude of the decline in the natural rate8
. In a recent study, Lukasz Rachel and Thomas Smith9
of the
Bank of England identify three broad global factors that drive the neutral rate: changes in global trend
(potential) growth; factors shaping preferences for desired savings; and factors shaping preferences for
desired investment.
The two charts below account for the drop in the natural rate over the past thirty years by quantifying
shifts in these three factors. On Rachel and Smith’s estimates, these factors combined account for
approximately 400bps of the decline in the natural rate. The desired savings schedule has shifted out
6
Laubach, Thomas, and John C. Williams, (2015): “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux.” FRB San Francisco
Working Paper 2015-16, October, forthcoming in Business Economics.
http://www.frbsf.org/economicresearch/publications/working-papers/wp2015-16.pdf and Williams John C., (2015):
“The Decline in the Natural Rate of Interest”.
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/economists/jwilliams/Williams_NABE_2015_natural_rate_FRBSF.pdf John
Williams is the president of the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco and one of the leading authorities at the Fed
on the topic of the natural rate.
7
Holston, Kathryn, et.al. (2016): “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants”,
FRBSF Working Paper 2016-11, June. http://www.frbsf.org/economicresearch/publications/working-papers/wp2016-
11.pdf
8
Hamilton, James D., et.al. ibid.
9
Rachel, Lukasz, and Thomas D. Smith, (2015): “Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate”, Bank of England Staff
Working Paper 571, December.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/workingpapers/2015/swp571.aspx
4. QUARTERLY LETTER Q2 - 2016 KI CAPITAL GMBH
4
materially owing to demographic forces (explain 90bps of the fall in real rates), higher inequality within
countries (45bps) and the emerging markets savings glut (25bps). The natural rate has also been depressed
by changes in desired investment due to the decline in the relative price of capital goods (50bps), a
preference shift away from public investment projects (20bps), and an increase in the spread between the
risk free rate and the return on capital (70bps). Finally, lower potential GDP growth is responsible for
approximately an additional 1% drop in the natural rate.
Source: Rachel and Smith (2015)
Whilst real interest rates have fallen in both advanced and emerging economies, the two blocs exhibit
different trends in savings and investment, particularly since the late 1990s. Savings and investment as
percent of GDP have fallen in advanced economies and risen in emerging ones. This suggests that a shift in
the investment schedule has been the driver of moves in real rates in advanced economies, whilst shifts in
the saving schedule have been more important for emerging economies.
In conclusion, the drop in the natural rate has been driven by fundamental trends which are likely to persist
in the long term and will continue to be highly influential on future monetary policy.
Intended and unintended consequences of unconventional monetary policy
In a world of low global neutral rates the conduct of monetary policy becomes significantly more
challenging, primarily due to the limited ability of monetary policy to accommodate adverse shocks given
the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. In fact, a large-enough shock can lead to an equilibrium
where secular stagnation sets in.
Policymakers have responded to the current situation in several ways. Many central banks have employed
qualitative forward guidance in order to influence expectations. They have also become more reliant on
unconventional policy measures such as quantitative easing (QE) and negative interest rates.
QE and negative interest rates have potential intended and unintended consequences that limit its
effectiveness as a monetary policy tool. The QE-induced portfolio rebalancing effect does lead to broad
increases in asset prices thus raising financial wealth. With trillions of dollars of developed-country debt
trading at historically low – and in many cases, negative – yields, investors are “forced” to extend duration
and increase the riskiness of their portfolio in order to get any yield at all. This reach for yield is based on a
set of erroneous and dangerous beliefs which become ever more engrained in investors’ minds in an
environment where unconventional monetary policy goes on and on. Investors believe that there is no
5. QUARTERLY LETTER Q2 - 2016 KI CAPITAL GMBH
5
need to really worry about the global economy or the financial system because policymakers will do
whatever it takes to keep things under control.
In this environment risky assets are trading at extreme valuations, with equities valued at lofty PEs
computed on profit margins that are at the high end of their multi-decade range. Profit margins will move
lower in the medium term as margins mean revert, especially in the face of political and technological
pressures. Elevated equity valuations and the cheap cost of capital incentivize financial engineering (stock
buybacks, excessive debt issuance) rather than capital stock expansion.
Unconventional monetary policy also raises political and economic concerns regarding the growing size of
central bank balance sheets. Negative interest rates act as a tax on wealth, savings and future pensions.
The popular belief that inflation is very hard to manufacture by central banks does not imply that inflation
does not exist and that it is not eroding household wealth and retirement savings.
The low rate environment presents a particular challenge to the business models of banks and insurance
companies. Flat yield curves and low rates squeeze commercial banks’ net interest margins, undermining
their profitability.
Finally, unconventional monetary policy has adversely impacted the liquidity in fixed income markets.
Manipulation of securities markets by governments and restrictive regulation has increased the cost of
trading and has weakened the ability of markets to provide signals used for the allocation of capital and risk
management.
Today’s securities markets are not priced to reflect the risks and consequences associated with
unconventional monetary policy. The cyclical nature of interest rates and the length of the cycles are not
accounted for. Monetary economists accept that both accommodative and unconventional monetary
policy distort real and financial decision making. The current debate is whether the potential benefits of
such policy outweigh the potential costs. Therefore, the real question for policy makers is whether they can
manage to normalize policy before policy induced market distortions become detrimental to the economy.
Recent FOMC minutes10
show that several Fed officials worried that an extended period of low interest
rates risked intensifying the reach for yield and the resulting misallocation of capital and the mispricing of
risk, with adverse consequences for financial stability down the line.
In the event that monetary policy tools become constrained or ineffective, fiscal policy may need to play a
more active part in business cycle stabilization. Governments should target increasing the desired
investment levels directly through increased public investment, and indirectly by raising future growth
prospects and encouraging private sector investment. Financing such a fiscal expansion poses a particularly
challenging problem, especially for countries with high levels of public debt and limited fiscal room for
maneuver. Finally, governments can implement structural reforms that increase productivity and labor
supply and raise potential output growth of the economy.
Empirical support of the impact of policy decisions on stock returns
Empirical evidence of the impact of monetary policy on stock returns since the 1980’s has been provided by
a recently published study by David Lucca and Emanuel Moench11
. The paper documents surprisingly large
average excess returns earned on U.S. equities in anticipation of monetary policy decisions made at
scheduled meetings of the FOMC. These returns have increased over time and account for sizable fractions
of the total annual realized stock returns.
The figure below shows the average cumulative returns of the S&P 500 index the day before, the day of and
the day after FOMC announcements. The sample period is from 1994 to 2011. From close of business to
close of business on FOMC announcement days, stock exhibit excess returns (above the risk free rate) on
average of about 33 basis points, compared with an average excess return of about 1 basis point on all
other days. The effect is even stronger – 49 basis points – if measured intraday between 2pm the day
10
June 2016 FOMC minutes.
11
Lucca, David O., and Emanuel Moench, (2015): The pre-FOMC announcement drift, Journal of Finance 70, 329–371.
6. QUARTERLY LETTER Q2 - 2016 KI CAPITAL GMBH
6
before the announcement and the time of the announcement. Both results are strongly statistically
different from zero.
Source: Lucca & Moench (2015)
This result does not apply only to U.S. stocks. Several other international equity indexes display a pre-FOMC
announcement drift. Surprisingly, major international stock indices do not exhibit excess returns ahead of
their own, local central bank monetary policy announcements. Finally, the effect exists for both easing and
tightening decisions. The difference in excess return between the two is not statistically significant.
From 1970 to 1993 (prior to when the Fed started releasing its policy decisions right after each meeting) no
excess returns existed. Furthermore, there is no similar pattern of differential returns for other asset
classes such as short-and long-term fixed-income instruments and exchange rates on FOMC days compared
with other days. And no analogous drift is observed ahead of other macroeconomic news releases, such as
the employment report and GDP, among others.
Source: Lucca & Moench (2015)
7. QUARTERLY LETTER Q2 - 2016 KI CAPITAL GMBH
7
Contact Information
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Breitenstrasse 66
8832 Wilen bei Wollerau
Switzerland
Tel: +41 79 848 8480
Email: kostas@kicapital.ch
The cumulative effect of the pre-FOMC announcement drift on the S&P 500 index is staggering. The figure
above shows the S&P 500 index since 1994 with and without the 24-hours of pre-FOMC returns. More than
80 percent of the annual equity premium has been earned over the twenty-four hours preceding scheduled
FOMC announcements, which occur only eight times per year.
A follow-up study by Peter Chan in 201512
confirmed the existence of the pre-FOMC announcement drift
effect in S&P500 returns from 1994 to 2011 using only close to close S&P 500 data. Chan extended the
analysis for the “out-of-sample” period April 2011 to January 2015 which included 31 scheduled FOMC
meetings. The study finds a positive drift in the out of sample data, but the effect is less pronounced at
approximately 25 basis points and furthermore it is not statistically significant. Given the small sample size
and the very low variation in the level and direction of policy during this period13
, the lack of statistical
significance in the out-of-sample study is not surprising14
.
Concluding remarks
Over the past thirty years the neutral real interest rate across developed economies has declined
substantially. Evidence suggests that secular rather than transitory factors are driving its decline. A lower
neutral interest rate implies that the cumulative amount of tightening required for monetary policy to
become neutral is much smaller than previously thought. Markets are currently pricing significantly smaller
tightening than even a lower neutral rate would justify. Given the empirical evidence of the impact of
monetary policy decisions on stock returns, as the time of monetary policy normalization is nearing, the
uncertainty regarding the Fed’s new approach increases the risk of abrupt market moves.
Kostas Iordanidis
KI Capital GmbH
12
Chan Peter, (2015): “Update on the Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift” (Wednesday, 4 March).
http://www.returnandrisk.com/2015/03/update-on-pre-fomc-announcement-drift.html
13
We thank Elizabeth Rasskazova for pointing this to us.
14
Alternatively the lack of statistical significance in the out-of-sample period can be due to the weakening of the
effect after publication of the Lucca and Moench working paper in 2011. Another plausible explanation would be that
the FOMC has become more transparent since the discovery of the effect and therefore there is less uncertainty
regarding monetary policy decisions, which might lead to a lower risk premium for such events.