Are you scanning the markets in a manner that is getting you ahead of the crowd? Are you reading sentiment correctly? Still doing things the old way? Abe Cofnas’ New Forex Fundamentals seminar module showed our clients a unique way to detect global sentiment to reshape their forex trading strategies.
You can view the presentation slides here!
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
Forward guidance by central banks is no Panaceatutor2u
Central banks in recent months have experimented with ‘forward guidance’ – sending signals about the future path of monetary policy particularly in relation to interest rates – as a way of stabilising medium to longer run expectations in the markets and among businesses and consumers.
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
Forward guidance by central banks is no Panaceatutor2u
Central banks in recent months have experimented with ‘forward guidance’ – sending signals about the future path of monetary policy particularly in relation to interest rates – as a way of stabilising medium to longer run expectations in the markets and among businesses and consumers.
Ben Bernanke's Opening Press Conference Statement.atul baride
This are the opening remarks before the likely last press conference of over stayed FOMC Chairman Ben Bernanke. Ben now driving the Economy Car with Brakes and accelerator. But Where is the steering ..?
Factsheet for Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund- WishfinAnvi Sharma
The scheme aims to maximize long term capital appreciation by investing primarily in equity & equity related securities of companies engaged in banking & financial services. The scheme would invest in banks as well as NBFC's, insurance companies, rating agencies, broking companies, etc.
Over the past thirty years the neutral real interest rate across developed economies has declined substantially. Evidence suggests that secular rather than transitory factors are driving its decline. A lower neutral interest rate implies that the cumulative amount of tightening required for monetary policy to become neutral is much smaller than previously thought.
Mr. Tohru Sasaki, Managing Director and Head of Japan Rates and FX Research, JP Morgan was one of the keynote speakers at the Asia Business Forum, organised by London Business School's Asia Club, on 27 April 2013. He spoke about the economic policies advocated by Japan's Prime Minister and the implication that they have to the Asian economy.
Find out more about the Asia Club:
Website: https://clubs.london.edu/asiaclub
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LBS.AsiaClub
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LBSAsiaClub
Ivo Pezzuto - "FED BITES THE BULLET - Implements First Rate Hike in Nearly a ...Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
The US Federal Reserve finally bites the bullet, increasing the
FFR – a key short-term interest rate – by quarter of a per cent.
With this, the regulator has clearly signaled that it might take
similar actions in future, if need arises, to take the economy
towards full recovery.
Printer Version - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sy.docxChantellPantoja184
Printer Version - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150917a.htm[9/21/2015 2:49:59 PM]
Print
Press Release
Release Date: September 17, 2015
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity
is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing
moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor
market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, labor market
indicators show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has
continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and
in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower; survey-
based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price
stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and
are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee
expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace,
with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its
dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor
market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near
its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent
over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy
and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today
reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains
appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--
both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This
assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market
conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and
international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range
for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is
reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium ter.
Ben Bernanke's Opening Press Conference Statement.atul baride
This are the opening remarks before the likely last press conference of over stayed FOMC Chairman Ben Bernanke. Ben now driving the Economy Car with Brakes and accelerator. But Where is the steering ..?
Factsheet for Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund- WishfinAnvi Sharma
The scheme aims to maximize long term capital appreciation by investing primarily in equity & equity related securities of companies engaged in banking & financial services. The scheme would invest in banks as well as NBFC's, insurance companies, rating agencies, broking companies, etc.
Over the past thirty years the neutral real interest rate across developed economies has declined substantially. Evidence suggests that secular rather than transitory factors are driving its decline. A lower neutral interest rate implies that the cumulative amount of tightening required for monetary policy to become neutral is much smaller than previously thought.
Mr. Tohru Sasaki, Managing Director and Head of Japan Rates and FX Research, JP Morgan was one of the keynote speakers at the Asia Business Forum, organised by London Business School's Asia Club, on 27 April 2013. He spoke about the economic policies advocated by Japan's Prime Minister and the implication that they have to the Asian economy.
Find out more about the Asia Club:
Website: https://clubs.london.edu/asiaclub
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LBS.AsiaClub
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LBSAsiaClub
Ivo Pezzuto - "FED BITES THE BULLET - Implements First Rate Hike in Nearly a ...Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
The US Federal Reserve finally bites the bullet, increasing the
FFR – a key short-term interest rate – by quarter of a per cent.
With this, the regulator has clearly signaled that it might take
similar actions in future, if need arises, to take the economy
towards full recovery.
Printer Version - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sy.docxChantellPantoja184
Printer Version - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150917a.htm[9/21/2015 2:49:59 PM]
Print
Press Release
Release Date: September 17, 2015
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity
is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing
moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor
market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, labor market
indicators show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has
continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and
in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower; survey-
based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price
stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and
are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee
expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace,
with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its
dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor
market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near
its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent
over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy
and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today
reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains
appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--
both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This
assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market
conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and
international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range
for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is
reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium ter.
We expect rate volatility to remain high as Fed tapering continues and as the U.S. labor market struggles to normalize. In Europe, the European Central Bank has moved a step closer to easier monetary policy, which may drive further spread compression in peripheral sovereign bonds. Recent stability in emerging-market asset markets suggests better data for developing countries could be on the horizon. Our outlook for credit, prepayment, and liquidity risks remains positive.
Is it time to buy the U.S. in early June?
An oil and materials price bottom is fully in. That is bullish risk. The S&P500 can finish 2016 above 2200, which is a +5%
return. Another big positive: A U.S. 5.0% unemployment rate adds consumer momentum via pending wage pressure. This
builds incomes.
U.S. shares have recovered. Watch for bullish S&P500 breaks of 2,100 in June or later.
Before the Aug. 2015 sell-off, the S&P500 traded at 16.6x forward earnings vs. a 10-year average of 14.1x. The Feb index
traded at 15.2. The June 2016 index trades at 16.7x forward earnings. Bearishly, we trade a bit above valuation levels of
August 2015.
Zacks strategists still call an S&P500 at 2,200 to 2,300 by yearend, given a 15% chance of U.S. recession (including me).
The Hitchhiker's Guide to Yellen's Speech
We spent all week waiting anxiously to see what Our Glorious Leader would say only to get a confused mash-up of central bank water-cooler conversation.
If you want to know what she really said - and, more importantly, didn't say - you might like to read this translation.
SandPointe
Investment Perspective
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Roger E. Brinner, PhD
Chief Market Strategist and Co-founding Partner
September 2014
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
The New Forex Fundamentals: Effectively Scanning Global Markets - Vantage FX
1. MODULE 1
MONDAY JULY 22
6PM-9PM
THE NEW FOREX
FUNDAMENTALS
PRESENTATION BY ABE COFNAS
Effectively Scanning Global Markets
2. WHAT YOU WILL LEARN IN MODULE 1
¡ FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS POST ‘08 IS MORE
IMPORTANT THAN EVER
¡ FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS IN THE AGE OF THE
INTERNET IS EASIER THAN EVER
¡ FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS IS A KEY TO FINDING
WEEKLY AND DAILY DIRECTION
¡ HOW TO TRADE ECONOMIC CALENDARs!
4. PART 1: WHAT IS FUNDAMENTAL
ANALYSIS
It is more than economic data.
5. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS VERSUS
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
¡ Fundamental Analysis focuses on what causes
prices to move.
¡ Technical Analysis focuses on the patterns of the
prices.
9. SENTIMENT ANALYSIS
¡ The new form of Fundamental Analysis is Sentiment
Analysis.
Sentiment Analysis focuses on the market as an
emotion engine and medium for crowd or herding
behavior.
10. FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS CREATE
EXPECATIONS
¡ The Key fundamental factors that shape price
action are:
GDP Growth
Inflation
Sovereign Debt
Fiscal Stability
The fundamental forces are expectations of these
factors.
11. SURPRISE IN FUNDAMENTALS MOVES
MARKETS!
¡ When markets are surprised about economic data
releases- they move.
¡ It is critical to know when economic data comes
out and this is done through an economic
calendar.
¡ DON’T IGNORE THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR
13. STRATEGIES AND TACTICS FOR
TRADING DATA RELEASES
PART 2: TRADING
ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES
OR: EVENT RISK TRADING!
14. WHAT IS AN EVENT RISK?
¡ Event Risks are Economic Data Releases providing
key economic information about almost all
countries. They can be found on any economic
calendar.
15. The Most Famous Economic Data
Release is the Non Farm Payroll Report ( NFP )
¡ First Friday of Every Month
¡ They Move the US markets
16. FOMC STATEMENTS IS ANOTHER BIG EVENT RISK TO
TRADE THAT MOVES CURRENCIES
Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the
year and other meetings as needed. Links to policy statements
and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly
scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of
the policy decision.
17. TRADING STRATEGIES FOR EVENT
RISKS
¡ 1) ANTICIPATE EVENT RELEASE AND CHOOSE A
DIRECTION
¡ 2) PLAY EITHER DIRECTION WITH TWO CURRENCY
PAIRS
¡ 3) WAIT FOR RELEASE AND JOIN DIRECTION
¡ 4) WAIT FOR FIRST REACTION TO BE OVER AND PLAY
COUNTER MOVE
18. PERCENTAGE MOVES IN RESPONSE TO
NFP REPORT AND FOMC STATEMENTS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Frequency
Bin
EURUSD Weekly Change In Response to NFP Reports
20. S&P 500 and FOMC
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Frequency
Bin
S&P 500 Weekly Change in Response to FOMC Statements
21. STRATEGY 1: PLACE AN @ MARKET BUY OR
SELL ORDER BEFORE DATA RELEASE !
22. STRATEGY 1: KEY ADVANTAGES AND
DISTADVANTAGES
KEY ADVANTAGE: COULD WIN BIG!
KEY DISADVANTAGE: COULD LOSE BIG!
KEY CHALLENGE: WHERE DO YOU PUT STOPS
OR LIMITS?
23. STRATEGY 2 : PLAY EITHER DIRECTION
WITH TWO DIFFERENT UNDERLYING MARKETS!
24. STRATEGY 2: KEY ADVANTAGES AND
DISADVANTAGES
¡ KEY ADVANTAGE IS THAT YOU ARE WITH THE RIGHT
DIRECTION
¡ KEY DISADVANTAGE IS THAT IT MAY BE A SMALL
MOVE AND COST TO GET OUT MORE THAN YOU
GAIN
26. STRATEGY 3: ADVANTAGES AND
DISADVANTAGES
KEY ADVANTAGE – YOU ARE ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE MOVE
KEY DISTADVANTAGE- IT COULD REVERSE
QUICKLY
KEY CHALLENGE: HARD TO GET OUT
WITHOUT SLIPPAGE
27. STRATEGY 4: WAIT FOR DATA RELEASE AND END
OF INITIAL MOVE - TRADE COUNTER - REACTION
28. STRATEGY 4 : KEY ADVANTAGES AND
DISADVANTAGES
¡ KEY ADVANTAGE: THE TRADE DECISION IS MORE
CONFIRMED
¡ KEY ADVANTAGE: FIBONACCI LEVELS ARE OFTEN IN
PLAY
¡ KEY ADVANTAGE: ALLOWS FOR MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES
¡ KEY DISADVANTAGE- RETRACEMENT MAY NOT
HAPPEN
29. EXPECTATIONS IS THE NEW
FUNDAMENTALS
¡ Detecting Expectations positions the trader to be
on the side of surprise.
¡ The Challenge is to detect Expectations
¡ The most important source of expectations is:
CENTRAL BANKS
30. PART 3: FINDING THE DOMINANT
FUNDAMENTAL DIRECTION
¡ OPEN THE DOOR TO THE CENTRAL BANK
STATEMENTS!
31. CENTRAL BANKS
¡ Are the Enzymes or Catalyst of Price Direction
¡ Their key role is to shape interest rates and thereby
impact economic growth.
¡ They inject “fear” and “ hope” regarding
stimulating economies
32. A DROP OF BERNANKE, DRAGHI,
CARNEY, IN A BASE OF HESITATION!
33. CENTRAL BANKS SURPRISE
¡ Bank of England surprise statement sends markets
up and sterling tumbling (July 4)
¡ http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jul/04/
bank-england-hold-rates-qe-mark-carney
35. KEY FUNDAMENTAL DETECTION
TOOL: WORD CLOUDS
¡ WORD CLOUDS HELP DETECT SHAPE OF
EXPECTATIONS OF CENTRAL BANKS
¡ PROVIDE EARLY SENSE OF CHANGE IN SENTIMENT
39. MATCH THE EXPECTATIONS
¡ US
¡ ENGLAND
¡ AUSTRALIA
¡ CHINA
¡ JAPAN
¡ EUROZONE
A= MORE QE B= TAPERING C= TIGHTENING
40. CONSTUCT YOUR OWN WORD
CLOUD!
¡ Let’s Construct our own word clouds.
Step 1: Go to www.wordle.net
Step 2: Locate Text
Step 3: Create Cloud
Step 4: Interpret Cloud
41. BANK OF ENGLAND STATEMENT
¡ Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at
£375 billion
¡ “The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain the official Bank
Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the
stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion.
¡ “Since the May Inflation Report, market interest rates have risen sharply internationally and
asset prices have been volatile. In the United Kingdom, there have been further signs that a
recovery is in train, although it remains weak by historical standards and a degree of slack is
expected to persist for some time. Twelve-month CPI inflation rose to 2.7% in May and is set to
rise further in the near term. Further out, inflation should fall back towards the 2% target as
external price pressures fade and a revival in productivity growth curbs domestic cost pressures.
¡ “At its meeting today, the Committee noted that the incoming data over the past couple of
months had been broadly consistent with the central outlook for output growth and inflation
contained in the May Report. The significant upward movement in market interest rates would,
however, weigh on that outlook; in the Committee’s view, the implied rise in the expected
future path of Bank Rate was not warranted by the recent developments in the domestic
economy.
¡ “The latest remit letter to the MPC from the Chancellor had requested that the Committee
provide an assessment, alongside its August Inflation Report, of the case for adopting some
form of forward guidance, including the possible use of intermediate thresholds. This analysis
would have an important bearing on the Committee’s policy discussions in August.
42. EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
STATEMENT
¡ "Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Incoming information has confirmed our previous assessment. Underlying price pressures
in the euro area are expected to remain subdued over the medium term. In keeping with this picture, monetary and, in particular, credit dynamics remain subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area
continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2 percent over the medium term. At the same time, recent confidence indicators based on survey data
have shown some further improvement from low levels. Our monetary policy stance is geared towards maintaining the degree of monetary accommodation warranted by the outlook for price stability and
promoting stable money market conditions. It thereby provides support to a recovery in economic activity later in the year and in 2014. Looking ahead, our monetary policy stance will remain
accommodative for as long as necessary. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation is based on the overall
subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness in the real economy and subdued monetary dynamics. In the period ahead, we will monitor all incoming
information on economic and monetary developments and assess any impact on the outlook for price stability.
¡ "Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Real GDP declined by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2013, following a contraction of 0.6 percent in the last quarter
of 2012. At the same time, labour market conditions remain weak. Recent developments in cyclical indicators, particularly those based on survey data, indicate some further improvement from low levels.
Looking ahead to later in the year and to 2014, euro area export growth should benefit from a gradual recovery in global demand, while domestic demand should be supported by the accommodative
monetary policy stance as well as the recent gains in real income owing to generally lower inflation. Furthermore, notwithstanding recent developments, the overall improvements in financial markets seen
since last summer should work their way through to the real economy, as should the progress made in fiscal consolidation. This being said, the remaining necessary balance sheet adjustments in the public
and private sectors will continue to weigh on economic activity. Overall, euro area economic activity should stabilise and recover in the course of the year, albeit at a subdued pace.
¡ "The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. The recent tightening of global money and financial market conditions and related uncertainties may have the
potential to negatively affect economic conditions. Other downside risks include the possibility of weaker than expected domestic and global demand and slow or insufficient implementation of structural
reforms in euro area countries.
¡ "As stated in previous months, annual inflation rates are expected to be subject to some volatility throughout the year owing particularly to base effects. According to Eurostat's flash estimate, euro area
annual HICP inflation was 1.6 percent in June 2013, up from 1.4 percent in May. This increase reflected an upward base effect relating to energy price developments twelve months earlier. However,
underlying price pressures are expected to remain subdued over the medium term, reflecting the broad-based weakness in aggregate demand and the modest pace of the recovery. Medium-term inflation
expectations remain firmly anchored in line with price stability.
¡ "The risks to the outlook for price developments are expected to be still broadly balanced over the medium term, with upside risks relating to stronger than expected increases in administered prices and
indirect taxes, as well as higher commodity prices, and downside risks stemming from weaker than expected economic activity.
¡ "Turning to the monetary analysis, recent data confirm the subdued monetary and, in particular, credit dynamics. Annual growth in broad money (M3) decreased in May to 2.9 percent, from 3.2 percent in
April. Moreover, annual growth in M1 decreased to 8.4 percent in May, from 8.7 percent in April. The annual rate of change of loans to the private sector remained negative. While the annual growth rate of
loans to households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) remained at 0.3 percent in May, broadly unchanged since the turn of the year, the annual rate of change of loans to non-financial corporations
(adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) weakened further to -2.1 percent in May, from -1.9 percent in April. As in April, strong monthly net redemptions in May were concentrated in short-term loans, possibly
reflecting reduced demand for working capital against the background of weak order books in early spring. More generally, weak loan dynamics continue to reflect primarily the current stage of the business
cycle, heightened credit risk and the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets.
¡ "Since the summer of 2012 substantial progress has been made in improving the funding situation of banks and, in particular, in strengthening the domestic deposit base in a number of stressed countries. This
has contributed to reducing reliance on Eurosystem funding, as reflected in the ongoing repayments of the three-year longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs). In order to ensure an adequate transmission
of monetary policy to the financing conditions in euro area countries, it is essential that the fragmentation of euro area credit markets continues to decline further and that the resilience of banks is
strengthened where needed. Further decisive steps for establishing a Banking Union will help to accomplish this objective. In particular, the future Single Supervisory Mechanism and a Single Resolution
Mechanism are crucial elements for moving towards re-integrating the banking system and therefore require swift implementation.
¡ "To sum up, the economic analysis indicates that price developments should remain in line with price stability over the medium term. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms this
picture.
¡ "With regard to other economic policies, the Governing Council notes the initiatives taken by the European Council of 27-28 June 2013 in the areas of youth unemployment, investment and financing of small
and medium-sized enterprises, as well as the European Council's endorsement of the country-specific recommendations of the 2013 European semester. The Governing Council stresses that implementation of
these recommendations is essential to contribute to a sustainable recovery in the euro area. Moreover, the new European governance framework for fiscal and economic policies should be applied in a
steadfast manner and much more determined efforts should be pursued to carry forward structural reforms to foster growth and employment. In this respect, the Governing Council deems it particularly
important to target competitiveness and adjustment capacities in labour and product markets. Finally, the Governing Council welcomes the setting-out of a number of steps towards the completion of the
Banking Union as moves in the right direction, but also urges that they be implemented swiftly
44. QUANTITATIVE EASING
¡ Quantitative easing in the main fundamental force
moving markets today there three main categories
for central bank expectation US fed is purchasing
$85 billion a month in treasuries and mortgage
backed securities
1- increasing quantitative easing
2- tapering of quantitative easing
45. SENTIMENT WAVES IN RESPONSE TO
CENTRAL BANK STATEMENTS
¡ MARKET MOVEMENTS ARE SHORT TERM AND LONG
TERM SENTIMENT WAVES REACTING TO FEAR AND
HOPE EMOTIONS JUST LIKE A CHEMICAL REACTION.
¡ THE CHALLENGE OF THE FOREX TRADER IS TO DETECT
AND RIDE THE DOMINANT SENTIMENT WAVE
47. FOMC STATEMENT
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/
fomccalendars.htm#18545
¡ Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May suggests that economic activity has been
expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance,
but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the
housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Partly reflecting transitory
influences, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations
have remained stable.
¡ Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The
Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace
and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The
Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall.
The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
¡ To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its
dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace
of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining
its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed
securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together,
these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to
make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
¡ The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The
Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools
as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The
Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as
the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases,
the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the
extent of progress toward its economic objectives.
¡ To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly
accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase
program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for
the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds
rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and
two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run
goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly
accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional
measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial
developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced
approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
49. NOW LET’S ANSWER THE QUESTION:
WHAT IS THE FUNDAMENTAL DIRECTION OF
THE FOLLOWING CURRENCIES ?
¡ Us Dollar: Stronger or Weaker?
¡ Yen: Stronger or Weaker?
¡ Aussie: Stronger or Weaker?
¡ Euro: Stronger or Weaker?
50. TEXT MINING AS FUNDAMENTAL
LEADING INDICATOR!
¡ GOOGLE TRENDS HELPS DETECT CHANGES IN
SENTIMENT
¡ THE CASE OF ABENOMICS
53. PART 4: TRADING MARKET EMOTIONS
CONSTRUCT A BALANCE OF FEARS CHECKLIST
We are merely reminding ourselves that
human decisions affecting the future,
whether personal or political or
economic, cannot depend on strict
mathematical expectation, since the
basis for making such calculations does
not exist; and that it is our innate urge
to activity which makes the wheels go
round, our rational selves choosing
between the alternatives as best we
are able, calculating where we can,
but often falling back for our motive on
whim or sentiment or chance.
—John Maynard Keynes (1964, 162–63
58. BOND MARKET AS A VIGILANTE
¡ BOND MARKETS PROVIDE CLUES TO MARKET FEARS
BY FORCING YIELDS HIGHER WHEN PERCEIVED RISKS
ARE RISKING.
¡ LOWER YIELDS MEANS $$ ARE LOOKING FOR RISK
NOT SAFETY
59. FEAR OF INFLATION?
¡ CENTRAL BANKS ARE PRINTING MONEY AS NEVER
BEFORE.
¡ IS THERE FEAR OF INFLATION?
67. THE CROWD AS A SWARM
PRICE ACTION AS CHEMISTRY
¡ Prices are moving in swarm like patterns.
¡ When is the Crowd of Trader right?
¡ When is the Crowd of Traders wrong?
USDJPY CHEMICAL REACTION
68. MAXIMUM MISPRICING = MAXIMUM
OPPORTUNITY
¡ At the beginning of each week, markets face
maximum uncertainty and maximum mispricing.
¡ The result is a perfect opportunity for Contrarian
Thinking
74. PART 6: BECOME A FUNDAMENTAL EXPERT WITH
THE FINANCIAL TIMES
¡ The best tool to quickly become a Fundamental
Scanner and Expert is the Financial Times.
¡ Let’s explore How By Reviewing FT Digital.