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Fixed Income and Endowment
Portfolio Management
James G. Clarke
November 17, 2020
Agenda
• Intro to KU Endowment
• Investment Grade Fixed Income
– Role in the Portfolio: Defense, Liquidity, Yield
– Rates Near Zero…so now what?
• Alternative Credit
– Direct Lending
– Asset-based lending
– CLOs
2
KU Endowment
• Founded 1891
• Independent, fundraising and asset management
arm of KU
– Provides >6,500 scholarships a year
– Supports major capital projects – like Capitol Federal Hall
and ~2/3 of buildings on campus
• $1.7 billion in long-term investments + >$400 million
in ‘short-term’ portfolio
– Provides >$170 million a year to support KU
– ~6% of KU’s total budget vs. ~16% from the State
3
Role in the Portfolio
4
Source: Adapted from Bridgewater Associates, LP
Bond Flavors: From Mild to Jabanero
PotentialReturn
Credit risk / correlation to equities
Protection
• Treasuries
• TIPS
• Other Government
Securities (including
non-US)
• Highest quality and
liquidity
• Lower expectedreturns
• Effective protection in a
downturn
Core Investment
Grade Credit
• Investment Grade Credit
• Mortgage-backed(MBS),
Asset-backed (ABS), and
Commercial Mortgage
backed (CMBS)
securities
• High quality bonds,
strong liquidity
• Higher yieldsthan
treasuries
• Modest increase to
volatility and equity
correlation
Private/illiquid
Credit:
• Direct lending
• Special Situations
• Distressedfor Control
• Trading distressed
• Higher returning,
illiquid.
• Serves different purpose
than Fixed Income
allocation
• Often part of Diversifiers
or Private Equity
allocation
Below-Investment
Grade Credit
• High Yield Bonds
• Senior securedfloating
rate debt (Bank Loans)
• EM Debt
• Increased potential for
yield and total return
• Greater potential for
default
• Significant correlation
to equities, particularly
in down markets
Endowments Own Few Bonds
6
Source: NACUBO-CommonFund Study of Endowments, 2019
• Large endowments own fewer bonds, more alternatives
• Smaller endowments own more bonds, fewer alternatives
Role of the Bond Allocation
• Defense against equity market corrections or economic
slowdowns
– This primarily comes in the form of government bonds, with
intermediate to long duration
Role of the Bond Allocation
8
Source: PIMCO
Role of the Bond Allocation
• Defense against equity market corrections or economic
slowdowns
– This primarily comes in the form of government bonds, with
intermediate to long duration
• Liquidity in nearly any environment
– High quality bonds continue to show strong liquidity…recently aided
by the Fed
– Low quality bonds are generally less liquid, more volatile
Role of the Bond Allocation
• Defense against equity market corrections or economic
slowdowns
– This primarily comes in the form of government bonds, with
intermediate to long duration
• Liquidity in nearly any environment
– High quality bonds continue to show strong liquidity…recently aided
by the Fed
– Low quality bonds are generally less liquid, more volatile
• Source of yield
– Increasing yield generally comes with increased credit risk and
volatility. As you move down the credit (quality) ladder, there is also
increasing correlation to equity markets
Now What?
Return prospects have diminished across all fixed income sectors
– Yields are near all time lows for Treasuries, with little room for further
decline
– Spreads have narrowed since blowing out in March, but are more
attractive than they were in last year
11
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
rate
End of the >30 Year Bond Bull?
Source: S&P Capital IQ
Bonds Under Stress
2020 CO VID-19 Q 3 2011
February 19,2020 -M arch 23,2020 July 1,2011-Septem ber30,2011
2008 GREAT RECESSIO N PO ST DO T-CO M BUBBLE CRASH
O ctober7,2007 -M arch 9,2009 Septem ber1,2000 -O ctober9,2002
-47.77
29.23 23.56 23.27 23.22 22.10 20.32
-9.51
S&P 500 L-T
Treasury
Int. Gov. Int.
Gov/Credit
Agg. Bond MBS Corp. High Yield
-55.35
21.32 13.18 8.35 7.22 12.95
-5.92 -28.50
S&P 500 L-T
Treasury
Int. Gov. Int.
Gov/Credit
Agg. Bond MBS Corp. High Yield
-14.01
24.66 3.19 2.40 3.82 2.36 2.85
-6.06
S&P 500 L-T
Treasury
Int. Gov. Int.
Gov/Credit
Agg. Bond MBS Corp. High Yield
-33.83
12.74
3.53 1.30
-0.94
1.16
-12.28
-20.76
S&P 500 L-T
Treasury
Int. Gov. Int.
Gov/Credit
Agg. Bond MBS Corp. High YieldAgg. Bond Agg. Bond
Agg. Bond Agg. Bond
Source: Cambridge Associates
How Will I.G. Bonds Perform Next Time?
13
Source: PIMCO
Are “Hedge Funds” a Bond Substitute?
14
Asset Class (Inception)
Trailing
3-yr
Trailing
5-yr
Trailing
10-yr
Since
Inception
Trailing
10-yr
Vol
Trailing
10-yr
Beta
Total Bonds/Cash
(6/30/92) 3.9% 3.7% 2.5% 6.1% 4.5% 0.04
Total Stocks
(6/30/92) 4.9% 9.1% 8.5% 9.1% 15.7% 1.00
Total Hedge Funds
(6/30/04) 6.6% 5.1% 4.8% 5.0% 6.0% 0.33
Source: KU Endowment
Role for Extra-Spicy?
PotentialReturn
Credit risk / correlation to equities
Protection
• Treasuries
• TIPS
• Other Government
Securities (including
non-US)
• Highest quality and
liquidity
• Lower expectedreturns
• Effective protection in a
downturn
Core Investment
Grade Credit
• Investment Grade Credit
• Mortgage-backed(MBS),
Asset-backed (ABS), and
Commercial Mortgage
backed (CMBS)
securities
• High quality bonds,
strong liquidity
• Higher yields that
treasuries
• Modest increase to
volatility and equity
correlation
Private/illiquid
Credit:
• Direct lending
• Special Situations
• Distressedfor Control
• Trading distressed
• Higher returning,
illiquid.
• Serves different purpose
than Fixed Income
allocation
• Often part of Diversifiers
or Private Equity
allocation
Below-Investment
Grade Credit
• High Yield Bonds
• Senior securedfloating
rate debt (Bank Loans)
• EM Debt
• Increased potential for
yield and total return
• Greater potential for
default
• Significant correlation
to equities, particularly
in down markets
Direct Lending
16
Source: Oaktree Capital Management (circa 2017)
Asset-based Lending
17
Redacted
Source: Real Estate Loan Manager
Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)
18
Source: HPS Investment Partners
Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)
19
Range of IRRs for CLO Equity of U.S. CLOs by Vintage Year1
35.1%
28.0%
21.4%
28.9%
42.2%
36.7%
25.6%
19.0%
11.7% 11.1%
16.9%
20.0%
22.1%
19.5%
13.5%
5.6%
7.1%
14.0%
17.0%
18.5%
12.2%
8.1%
2.0%
3.6%
10.0%
13.1%
15.6%
6.5%
(0.6%)
(17.8%)
(8.4%)
(4.4%)
(5.8%)
(11.8%)
(3.9%)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2002
(15)
2003
(34)
2004
(51)
2005
(81)
2006
(148)
2007
(135)
2008
(18)
CLOEquityIRR(%)
CLO Vintage
(# Vintage)
75th Percentile Median 25th Percentile
Source: Eagle Point Credit

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Fixed income and endowment portfolio management

  • 1. Fixed Income and Endowment Portfolio Management James G. Clarke November 17, 2020
  • 2. Agenda • Intro to KU Endowment • Investment Grade Fixed Income – Role in the Portfolio: Defense, Liquidity, Yield – Rates Near Zero…so now what? • Alternative Credit – Direct Lending – Asset-based lending – CLOs 2
  • 3. KU Endowment • Founded 1891 • Independent, fundraising and asset management arm of KU – Provides >6,500 scholarships a year – Supports major capital projects – like Capitol Federal Hall and ~2/3 of buildings on campus • $1.7 billion in long-term investments + >$400 million in ‘short-term’ portfolio – Provides >$170 million a year to support KU – ~6% of KU’s total budget vs. ~16% from the State 3
  • 4. Role in the Portfolio 4 Source: Adapted from Bridgewater Associates, LP
  • 5. Bond Flavors: From Mild to Jabanero PotentialReturn Credit risk / correlation to equities Protection • Treasuries • TIPS • Other Government Securities (including non-US) • Highest quality and liquidity • Lower expectedreturns • Effective protection in a downturn Core Investment Grade Credit • Investment Grade Credit • Mortgage-backed(MBS), Asset-backed (ABS), and Commercial Mortgage backed (CMBS) securities • High quality bonds, strong liquidity • Higher yieldsthan treasuries • Modest increase to volatility and equity correlation Private/illiquid Credit: • Direct lending • Special Situations • Distressedfor Control • Trading distressed • Higher returning, illiquid. • Serves different purpose than Fixed Income allocation • Often part of Diversifiers or Private Equity allocation Below-Investment Grade Credit • High Yield Bonds • Senior securedfloating rate debt (Bank Loans) • EM Debt • Increased potential for yield and total return • Greater potential for default • Significant correlation to equities, particularly in down markets
  • 6. Endowments Own Few Bonds 6 Source: NACUBO-CommonFund Study of Endowments, 2019 • Large endowments own fewer bonds, more alternatives • Smaller endowments own more bonds, fewer alternatives
  • 7. Role of the Bond Allocation • Defense against equity market corrections or economic slowdowns – This primarily comes in the form of government bonds, with intermediate to long duration
  • 8. Role of the Bond Allocation 8 Source: PIMCO
  • 9. Role of the Bond Allocation • Defense against equity market corrections or economic slowdowns – This primarily comes in the form of government bonds, with intermediate to long duration • Liquidity in nearly any environment – High quality bonds continue to show strong liquidity…recently aided by the Fed – Low quality bonds are generally less liquid, more volatile
  • 10. Role of the Bond Allocation • Defense against equity market corrections or economic slowdowns – This primarily comes in the form of government bonds, with intermediate to long duration • Liquidity in nearly any environment – High quality bonds continue to show strong liquidity…recently aided by the Fed – Low quality bonds are generally less liquid, more volatile • Source of yield – Increasing yield generally comes with increased credit risk and volatility. As you move down the credit (quality) ladder, there is also increasing correlation to equity markets
  • 11. Now What? Return prospects have diminished across all fixed income sectors – Yields are near all time lows for Treasuries, with little room for further decline – Spreads have narrowed since blowing out in March, but are more attractive than they were in last year 11 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 rate End of the >30 Year Bond Bull? Source: S&P Capital IQ
  • 12. Bonds Under Stress 2020 CO VID-19 Q 3 2011 February 19,2020 -M arch 23,2020 July 1,2011-Septem ber30,2011 2008 GREAT RECESSIO N PO ST DO T-CO M BUBBLE CRASH O ctober7,2007 -M arch 9,2009 Septem ber1,2000 -O ctober9,2002 -47.77 29.23 23.56 23.27 23.22 22.10 20.32 -9.51 S&P 500 L-T Treasury Int. Gov. Int. Gov/Credit Agg. Bond MBS Corp. High Yield -55.35 21.32 13.18 8.35 7.22 12.95 -5.92 -28.50 S&P 500 L-T Treasury Int. Gov. Int. Gov/Credit Agg. Bond MBS Corp. High Yield -14.01 24.66 3.19 2.40 3.82 2.36 2.85 -6.06 S&P 500 L-T Treasury Int. Gov. Int. Gov/Credit Agg. Bond MBS Corp. High Yield -33.83 12.74 3.53 1.30 -0.94 1.16 -12.28 -20.76 S&P 500 L-T Treasury Int. Gov. Int. Gov/Credit Agg. Bond MBS Corp. High YieldAgg. Bond Agg. Bond Agg. Bond Agg. Bond Source: Cambridge Associates
  • 13. How Will I.G. Bonds Perform Next Time? 13 Source: PIMCO
  • 14. Are “Hedge Funds” a Bond Substitute? 14 Asset Class (Inception) Trailing 3-yr Trailing 5-yr Trailing 10-yr Since Inception Trailing 10-yr Vol Trailing 10-yr Beta Total Bonds/Cash (6/30/92) 3.9% 3.7% 2.5% 6.1% 4.5% 0.04 Total Stocks (6/30/92) 4.9% 9.1% 8.5% 9.1% 15.7% 1.00 Total Hedge Funds (6/30/04) 6.6% 5.1% 4.8% 5.0% 6.0% 0.33 Source: KU Endowment
  • 15. Role for Extra-Spicy? PotentialReturn Credit risk / correlation to equities Protection • Treasuries • TIPS • Other Government Securities (including non-US) • Highest quality and liquidity • Lower expectedreturns • Effective protection in a downturn Core Investment Grade Credit • Investment Grade Credit • Mortgage-backed(MBS), Asset-backed (ABS), and Commercial Mortgage backed (CMBS) securities • High quality bonds, strong liquidity • Higher yields that treasuries • Modest increase to volatility and equity correlation Private/illiquid Credit: • Direct lending • Special Situations • Distressedfor Control • Trading distressed • Higher returning, illiquid. • Serves different purpose than Fixed Income allocation • Often part of Diversifiers or Private Equity allocation Below-Investment Grade Credit • High Yield Bonds • Senior securedfloating rate debt (Bank Loans) • EM Debt • Increased potential for yield and total return • Greater potential for default • Significant correlation to equities, particularly in down markets
  • 16. Direct Lending 16 Source: Oaktree Capital Management (circa 2017)
  • 18. Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) 18 Source: HPS Investment Partners
  • 19. Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) 19 Range of IRRs for CLO Equity of U.S. CLOs by Vintage Year1 35.1% 28.0% 21.4% 28.9% 42.2% 36.7% 25.6% 19.0% 11.7% 11.1% 16.9% 20.0% 22.1% 19.5% 13.5% 5.6% 7.1% 14.0% 17.0% 18.5% 12.2% 8.1% 2.0% 3.6% 10.0% 13.1% 15.6% 6.5% (0.6%) (17.8%) (8.4%) (4.4%) (5.8%) (11.8%) (3.9%) -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2002 (15) 2003 (34) 2004 (51) 2005 (81) 2006 (148) 2007 (135) 2008 (18) CLOEquityIRR(%) CLO Vintage (# Vintage) 75th Percentile Median 25th Percentile Source: Eagle Point Credit