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Learn To Love Your Money – Basics of Investing
Investment Allocation and Risk Management
RBC Wealth Management
Prepared by: Gwen I. Becker, CIM, CFP, FCSI
Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor
403-299-5265 | gwen.becker@rbc.com
Becker Cheng & Charbonneau Wealth Management
Agenda
1. Types of Relationship with Investment Managers Pages 3-5
 Advisory vs. Fiduciary Duty
2. Asset Allocation for Lifecycles Pages 6-14
 Models
 Historical Returns
 Index Descriptions
 Risk Metrics
3. Timeless Risk Management Strategies Pages 15-16
 Sector & Position Limits
 CAD vs. USD
4. Market Update Pages 17-26
 Commodity Super-cycle
 CAD vs. USD
 Bear Market Statistics
2RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Types of Relationships with Investment Managers
3RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Types of Advisors
 IIROC
 CSC, CPH, WME
 Investment Dealer
 Agency relationship
 KYC
 Wealth & Estate Planning
 Domestic, US &
International stocks, bonds &
Specialty pooled funds
 Commission based
compensation
 Fee based compensation
 Fees tax-deductible
 MFDA
 IFIC, CFP
 Mutual Fund Dealer
 Agency Relationship
 KYP
 Domestic, International &
Specialty Mutual Funds,
Insurance
 Front end load, DSC & Trailer
Fee compensation
 ASC or IIROC
 CFA, CIM, CFP
 Fiduciary Duty
 Investment Policy
Statement
 Portfolio Management
 Wealth & Estate Planning
 Domestic, US & International
stocks, bonds & Specialty
pooled funds
 Fee based compensation as a
% of assets (fully transparent)
 Fees tax-deductible
Investment Advisor Financial Planner Portfolio Manager
February 18, 2016 4RBC DOMINION SECURITIES
Client / Advisor Relationships – Value Proposition
Client Prefers:
 Deal flow
 Specialization
 Active Involvement
 Risk management & wealth
management focus
 Transaction based cost structure
 Fee-based
Reporting
 Monthly Account Statements
 Quarterly Reporting
Cost Structure
 1-3% trade value commission
 Spread on bonds
 ~1% Fund Trailer Fees
 Commission to Broker from
Issuer
 Fee-based
Investment Advisor Financial Planner Portfolio Manager
Client Prefers:
 Variety of investment products
 Planning focus
 Advisory Relationship with active
involvement
 Fee-based
Reporting
 Monthly & Quarterly Account
Statements
 Fund performance
Cost Structure
 Average Fund MER ~2.50%
 Front-end or Back-end Sales
Commissions (FE Load/DSCs)
 ~1% Fund Trailer Fees
Client Prefers:
 Customized discretionary
portfolio management
 Risk management & wealth
management focus
 Fiduciary Duty based
 Professional Fee-based
Reporting
 Monthly Account Statements
 Quarterly portfolio &
performance reporting
 Benchmarks
Cost Structure
 1.25-1.50% all-in annual fee (tax
deductible)
 Declining fee schedule
 Cannot “double dip” on bond
spreads (commissions) or
issuance
February 18, 2016 5RBC DOMINION SECURITIES
Asset Allocation for Lifecycles
6RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
7
Simply Your Life – Pension Style PortfoliosExpectedReturn
Risk Profiles
The focus is long term capital appreciation with a secondary focus on wealth preservation. The majority of the portfolio
will typically be invested in a blend of growth assets. The investor in this category has a higher tolerance for risk over
their investment horizon.
The focus is capital preservation. The portfolio will typically be invested mainly in fixed income and other low volatility
instruments. The investor in this category has a low tolerance for loss over their investment horizon.
The focus is the wealth preservation which includes an element of growth to retain the real (inflation – adjusted) value of
the portfolio. The portfolio will typically include fixed income instruments as well as some exposure to growth assets.
The investor in this category has some tolerance for loss over their investment horizon.
The focus is a balance between capital appreciation and wealth preservation. The portfolio may include exposure to all
asset classes and carries moderate risk of loss over the investment horizon.
Very Conservative
Expected Volatility
Conservative
Balanced
Growth
Aggressive Growth
The focus is the maximization of long term capital appreciation. The portfolio will be invested mainly in growth assets
and may have a higher proportion of higher risk investments and possible concentrations. The investor in this category
has a high tolerance for risk over their investment horizon.
Very Conservative
Conservative
Balanced
Growth
Aggressive Growth
Efficient
Frontier
Cash
Fixed Income
Equities
Asset Allocation Profiles are based on RBC's Strategic Asset Allocation Framework and tradditional asset classes.
Expected Risk & Return and the Efficient Frontier are illustrative based on long term (5-10 Year) time horizon.
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Boomers 
Gen X
Millennials 
Boomers
Gen X 
Millennials
Source: RBC Dominion Securities
8
Asset Allocation – Index Descriptions
Asset Allocation Model: Balanced Profile
Sub Asset Class Index Name Geography Allocation
Cash 5.0%
Cash - Money Market DEX Canadian Trsury Bill 30 Day Canada 5.0%
Fixed Income 40.0%
FI - Government Bonds DEX Government Bond TR Canada 14.0%
FI - Corporate Bonds DEX Universe Corporate Bond TR Canada 16.0%
FI - High Yield Bonds Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II USD US 5.0%
FI - Emerging Markets JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified TR USD Emerging Markets 5.0%
Equity 55.0%
Eq - Cap/Style: Large Cap S&P/TSX Composite TR Canada 20.0%
Eq - Cap/Style: Large Cap S&P 500 Total Return US 20.0%
Eq - Cap/Style: Large Cap MSCI EAFE Int'l ex. US 10.0%
Eq - Region: Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets (Net) Emerging Markets 5.0%
For modelling purposes, the indices used to represent the indicated asset classes are described on Page 28 under the heading "Index Descriptions".
Reference Currency: CAD. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Source: RBC Dominion Securities
9
Asset Allocation – Portfolio Composition
Asset Class Very Conservative Conservative Balanced Growth Aggressive Growth
Cash 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Canadian Cash 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Fixed Income 75% 60% 40% 25% -
Government 40% 26% 14% 5% -
Corporate - Investment Grade 35% 26% 16% 10% -
Corporate - High Yield - 4% 5% 5% -
Emerging Markets - 4% 5% 5% -
Equities 20% 35% 55% 70% 95%
Canadian Domestic 10% 15% 20% 24% 30%
US 5% 10% 20% 24% 30%
International (EAFE) 5% 10% 10% 15% 25%
Emerging Markets - - 5% 7% 10%
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Gen XBoomers Millennials
Source: RBC Dominion Securities
10
Historical Performance
Very Conservative Conservative Balanced Growth Aggressive Growth
Annualized Return: Ending September 2015
1 Year 4.2% 5.2% 5.6% 5.5% 4.4%
3 Year 4.6% 7.3% 10.0% 11.7% 13.6%
5 Year 5.0% 6.6% 8.2% 9.0% 9.7%
10 Year 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.2% 5.9%
20 Year 6.7% 7.0% 7.3% 7.2% 6.8%
Max Common History: Jan 1994 To Sep 2015 6.6% 7.0% 7.3% 7.3% 7.0%
Distribution of Returns January 1994 To September 2015
Best 12 Month Rolling Return 22.0% 24.2% 29.3% 31.9% 35.0%
Median 12 Month Rolling Return 7.0% 8.0% 9.7% 10.8% 11.9%
Worst 12 Month Rolling Return -5.6% -11.3% -18.8% -24.3% -32.8%
% Positive Calendar Years 90.5% 90.5% 85.7% 76.2% 76.2%
% Negative Calendar Years 9.5% 9.5% 14.3% 23.8% 23.8%
Max Consecutive Calendar Yrs (+) 13 8 7 6 6
Max Consecutive Calendar Yrs (-) 1 1 2 3 3
Risk Measures: January 1994 To September 2015
Volatility of Returns (St. Dev.) 4.4% 5.5% 7.5% 9.2% 11.7%
Average Drawdown -1.6% -2.3% -3.3% -4.0% -5.9%
Average Recovery Period (# Months) 3.3 4.4 5.0 5.0 7.4
Max Drawdown -9.2% -13.9% -22.2% -29.2% -39.0%
Max Drawdown Date Feb-94 Jul-08 Jul-07 Jul-07 Sep-00
Longest Recovery Period Length 13 34 41 53 67
Longest Recovery Period Start Date Feb-94 Oct-00 Oct-00 Oct-00 Jun-07
For modelling purposes, the indices used to represent the indicated asset classes are described on Page 28 under the heading "Index Descriptions".
Reference Currency: CAD. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Gen XBoomers Millennials
Source: RBC Dominion Securities
11
Calendar Year Performance – Best to Worst
Very Conservative
Conservative
Balanced
Growth
Aggressive Growth
More Conservative
More Aggressive
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
16.58%
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
12.17%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
28.57%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
16.33%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
29.54%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
32.62%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
19.34%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
9.03%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
54.26%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
17.61%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
10.2%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
14.86%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
41.75%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
24.34%
US FI
(ML US HY)
11.03%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
8.78%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
26.73%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
14.49%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
24.13%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
26.77%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
9.84%
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
7.38%
US FI
(ML US HY)
36.12%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
12.65%
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
9.77%
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
14.09%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
31.47%
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
17.53%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
9.28%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
8.58%
Aggressive
Growth
16.29%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
11.42%
Aggressive
Growth
12.98%
Aggressive
Growth
20.21%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
4.45%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
2.57%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
35.06%
Aggressive
Growth
9.85%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
8.25%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
13.97%
Aggressive
Growth
24.07%
US FI
(ML US HY)
12.14%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
7.71%
Very
Conservative
3.12%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
14.35%
Aggressive
Growth
9.82%
Growth
10.88%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
17.27%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
4.27%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
0.24%
Aggressive
Growth
21.81%
Growth
9.67%
US FI
(ML US HY)
6.74%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
12.68%
Growth
17.57%
Growth
12.11%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
4.37%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
2.38%
Growth
13.57%
Growth
8.58%
Balanced
9.78%
Growth
16.26%
Very
Conservative
2.88%
Very
Conservative
-2.99%
Growth
20.48%
Balanced
9.29%
Very
Conservative
5.79%
US FI
(ML US HY)
12.28%
US FI
(ML US HY)
15.02%
Aggressive
Growth
12.06%
Very
Conservative
4.13%
Conservative
-1.27%
Balanced
12.06%
Balanced
8.07%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
9.75%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
16.18%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
1.8%
Conservative
-8.95%
Balanced
18.04%
US FI
(ML US HY)
9.16%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
4.39%
Aggressive
Growth
11.09%
Balanced
13.18%
Balanced
11.68%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
3.49%
US FI
(ML US HY)
-3.17%
Conservative
10.24%
Conservative
7.76%
Conservative
8.36%
Balanced
13.52%
Conservative
0.95%
US FI
(ML US HY)
-10.14%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
16.26%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
9.06%
Conservative
3.55%
Growth
10.16%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
13%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
10.56%
Conservative
1.5%
Balanced
-6.41%
Very
Conservative
9.22%
Very
Conservative
7.7%
Very
Conservative
7.83%
US FI
(ML US HY)
12.15%
Aggressive
Growth
0.78%
Balanced
-16.26%
Conservative
14.09%
Conservative
8.2%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
0.91%
Balanced
8.96%
Conservative
7.44%
Conservative
9.98%
Balanced
-1.05%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
-7.39%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
8.5%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
7.3%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
6.63%
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
10.24%
Balanced
0.43%
Growth
-21.47%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
13.88%
Very
Conservative
7.64%
Balanced
0.83%
Conservative
7.23%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
4.29%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
9.3%
Growth
-3.84%
Growth
-10.06%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
6.17%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
7.09%
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
6.58%
Conservative
10.06%
Growth
0.04%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
-23.08%
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
12.18%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
7.34%
Growth
-1.6%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
7.19%
Very
Conservative
2.06%
Very
Conservative
8.87%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
-6.35%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
-12.43%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
6.05%
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
3.42%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
6.02%
Very
Conservative
7.12%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
-4.82%
Aggressive
Growth
-28.81%
Very
Conservative
10.83%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
6.52%
Aggressive
Growth
-5.49%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
6.22%
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
1.46%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
7.59%
Aggressive
Growth
-9.15%
Aggressive
Growth
-15.58%
US FI
(ML US HY)
5.74%
US FI
(ML US HY)
2.73%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
2.58%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
4.4%
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
-9.11%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
-30.88%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
9.29%
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
6.36%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
-8.71%
Very
Conservative
5.39%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
0.11%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
7.01%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
-12.57%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
-17.03%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
2.86%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
2.73%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
1.41%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
3.94%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
-9.68%
Can Eq
(SP/TSX TR)
-33%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
1.57%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
2.11%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
-10.16%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
2.65%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
-2.9%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
4.03%
Intl Eq
(MSCI EAFE)
-16.52%
US Eq
(SP 500 TR)
-23.11%
EM FI
(JPM EMBI Gbl
Div)
0.84%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
2.25%
US FI
(ML US HY)
-0.68%
Can FI
(DEX Govt)
3.92%
US FI
(ML US HY)
-12.5%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
-43.03%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
0.37%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
0.43%
Em Eq
(MSCI EM)
-16.58%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
0.91%
Can FI
(DEX Univ Corp)
-3.48%
Can Cash
(DEX 30D Tbill)
0.81%
Asset Allocation Models are described on Page 4. Indices used to calculate the performance are described on Page 28 under the heading "Index Descriptions".
Reference Currency: CAD. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Source: RBC Dominion Securities
12
Cumulative Portfolio Growth
Analysis Period: January 1994 To September 2015
The Asset Allocation Model is described on Page 13. Indices used to calculate the performance are described on Page 28 under the heading "Index Descriptions".
Reference Currency: CAD. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Asset Allocation Model: Balanced Profile - Canadian International Model
CAD Cash DEX Canadian Trsy Bill 30 Day
CAD Fixed Income DEX Universe (%Total Return)
CAD Equities S&P/TSX Composite TR Index (Canada)
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Source: RBC Dominion Securities
13
Balanced Model - Calendar Year Return Distribution
Analysis Period: 1994 To 2014
2014
2013
2012 2009
2011 2006
2010 2003
2007 1999
2005 1998
2004 1997
2002 2000 1996
2008 2001 1994 1995
-50% to -40% -40% to -30% -30% to -20% -20% to -10% -10% to -0% 0% to 10% 10% to 20% 20% to 30% 30% to 40% 40% to 50% > 50 %
AssetAllocation
Model
Asset Allocation Model: Balanced Profile - Canadian International Model
Legend
1990+
2000+
2010+
Most Recent
The Asset Allocation Model is described on Page 13. Indices used to calculate the performance are described on Page 28 under the heading "Index Descriptions".
Reference Currency: CAD. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Source: RBC Dominion Securities
14RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
15
Let the Investment Professionals Remove Emotions from Decision-Making
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Source: www.google.ca
Timeless Risk Management Strategies
16RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
17
1. Control Sector Exposure
 No more than > 20% in any one sector
2. Control Single Stock Exposure
 No more than > 5% in any one stock
3. CAD vs. USD exposure (Global Diversification)
 When in commodity super cycle, overweight CAD and CAD equities
 When NOT in a commodity super cycle, overweight USD and US
equities
 Buy USD when CAD close to or above parity
 Hedge USD exposure below $0.70/USD – 0.65/USD
Timeless Risk Management Strategies
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
18
Market Update
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
The Long Term – Stocks vs. Commodity Super Cycle
Source: Ned Davis
19RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
20
Past Oil Corrections - Peak to Trough Bottoms
 Average oil correction
(peak to trough) is -57%
 Current correction -70%
 Oil should be close to a
bottom but from a
secular perspective,
many headwinds still
persist
 On an inflation adjusted
basis, oil looking like
it’s nearing a bottom
(next page)
February 18, 2016
21
Long Term Oil Prices (inflation adjusted)
Source: MacroTrends.NET - As of January 14, 2016
February 18, 2016
The Long Term - Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) Cycles
22RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Source: Fidelity
House Fire (Recession) vs. Kitchen Fire (Correction)?
Source: Ned Davis
23RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Trend is your Friend – Put the Sector Odds in your Favor
Source: Morningstar CPMS
24RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Opportunity – Dividend Growth
 7 Fed tightening cycles since 1973 – all stocks were weak in the initial 3 months post-tightening
 However, dividend growers and payers outperformed non-payers for the 24 month period after the
beginning of each tightening cycle
25RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
Risk Management & Strategy in Current Environment
 Higher cash reserves in-lieu of bonds & stocks
• Strategically look to re-invest cash once
 Bond yields higher
 Market valuations more appealing
 Core Weighting in Investment Grade Bonds (Defense)
• Don’t be tempted by higher rate junk bonds at this stage of cycle
 Neutral stocks relative to bonds
• Will begin reducing stock exposure once
 Money becomes tight or yield curve inverted
 Valuations become excessive
 Global diversification matters in current environment
• Exposure to US dollar remains favorable
 Hedge below $0.70 CAD/USD to locking in currency gains
• Minimal exposure to commodity heavy countries, sectors and companies
26RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
27
Disclosures
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
28
Index Descriptions
Index Name Sub Asset Class Description Data Start Date
Cash
DEX Canadian Trsury
Bill 30 Day
Cash - Money Market
The DEX Canadian Trsury Bill 30 Day Index consists of 30-day Treasury Bills issued by the Canadian
Government.
06/30/1973
Fixed Income
DEX Universe
Corporate Bond TR
FI - Corporate Bonds
The DEX Univ Corp TR Index consists of a held-to-maturity portfolio consisting of, primarily, Canadian dollar-
denominated investment grade corporate bonds with effective maturities in the applicable Maturity Year. The
effective maturity of an eligible corporate bond is determined by its actual maturity or the anticipated maturity of
the security as determined in accordance with a rules-based methodology developed by PC-Bond.
01/31/1986
DEX Universe Bond
TR
FI - Aggregate Bonds
The DEX Universe Bond TR Index consists of the broad Canadian investment-grade fixed income market. As of
December 31, 2010, the Universe Index consisted of 1,103 securities, with a total market value of approximately
$1.031 Trillion. The Universe Index has been published since 1979.
12/31/1979
JP Morgan EMBI
Global Diversified TR
USD
FI - Emerging Markets
The JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified TR Index consists of external-currency-denominated Brady bonds, loans,
Eurobonds and dollar-denominated local market debt instruments with a minimum credit rating of BBB+/Baa1.
01/31/1994
Merrill Lynch US High
Yield Master II USD
FI - High Yield Bonds
The Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Index consists of USD- denominated, below investment grade rated
corporate debt publically issued in the US domestic market.
09/30/1986
DEX Government
Bond TR
FI - Government Bonds
The DEX Government Bond TR Index consists of selected constituents of the DEX Universe Bond Index
laddered into different term buckets in years. Index constituents are rebalanced annually, on June 30 each year.
01/31/1980
Data Sources: Bloomberg, Zephyr, Morningstar, HFRI/HFRX, Cambridge Associates
It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
29
Index Descriptions
Index Name Sub Asset Class Description Data Start Date
Equity
S&P 500 Total Return
Eq - Cap/Style: Large
Cap
The S&P 500 Total Return Index consists of the 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S.
economy, capturing 75% coverage of U.S. equities.
01/31/1963
MSCI EAFE
Eq - Cap/Style: Large
Cap
The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) consists of the equity markets of developed markets,
excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 22 developed market country
indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel,
Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the
United Kingdom. It is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index.
01/31/1970
MSCI Emerging
Markets (Net)
Eq - Region: Emerging
Markets
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (Net) consists of equity indices from 26 emerging market countries in Europe,
Latin America, Africa, Asia and Middle East. The index is capitalization-weighted and excludes closed markets,
as well as those shares in otherwise free markets that are not purchasable by foreigners. The benchmark is
widely used as a measure of overall developing market stock performance around the world.
01/31/1989
S&P/TSX Composite
TR
Eq - Cap/Style: Large
Cap
The S&P/TSX Composite Index consists of stocks of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange
(TSX) as measured by market capitalization. The Toronto Stock Exchange listed companies in this index
comprise about 70% of market capitalization for all Canadian-based companies listed on the TSX. It replaces the
earlier TSE 300 index.
01/31/1963
Data Sources: Bloomberg, Zephyr, Morningstar, HFRI/HFRX, Cambridge Associates
It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
30
General Disclaimer
The information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC Dominion Securities Inc*. from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or
implied, is made by RBC Dominion Securities Inc., its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All charts, illustrations, examples and other
demonstrative content contained in this report have been provided for illustrative purposes only as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in
good faith but without legal responsibility. Whilst efforts are made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information contained in this report at the time of publication, errors
and omissions may occur.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Hypothetical historical data used in this report,
including any underlying assumptions used, is not indicative of future performance or value. Any upward or downward trend presented during the Analysis Time Horizon is not an
indication that the portfolio is likely to increase or decrease in value at any time.
Each legal jurisdiction has its own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as the process for doing so. As
a result, any securities or investment products discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to
buy any security. Additionally this report is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as a securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any
person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer in that jurisdiction. The contents of this report are provided for informational
purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to purchase a particular security or investment product. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice and you
are advised to seek independent legal, tax and accounting advice prior to acting upon anything contained in this report. Interest rates, market conditions, tax and legal rules and other
important factors which will be pertinent to your circumstances are subject to change. Specific investment strategies should be considered relative to the suitability of the products
contained therein, your objectives and risk tolerances. For information on any security or investment product mentioned in this report you are advised to consult the applicable offering
document pertaining to such security prior to investing.
To the full extent permitted by law neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor any of its affiliates, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential
loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein. No matter contained in this document may be reproduced or copied by any means without the prior consent
of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Additional information available upon request.
RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. RBC Dominion Securities
Inc. is a member company of RBC Wealth Management, a business segment of Royal Bank of Canada. ®Registered trademarks of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence. © RBC
Dominion Securities Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
31
Data and Report Disclosures
Asset Allocation is the process of determining the relative weight of various asset types
and strategies within a portfolio. An appropriate asset allocation model forms the basis for
effective portfolio construction, and enforces investment management discipline consistent
with your objectives and risk preferences. Comparing different asset allocation models can
help you better understand the potential risk and return trade-off and validate that a
proposed strategy is consistent with your expectations.
Base Currency. For analysis purposes, available indices are converted into a common
base currency. As a result, indices denominated in a currency other that the base currency
will be impacted by changes in the relative currency valuation over the Analysis Time
Horizon. This will affect total portfolio returns and volatility.
Risk and Return. Unless otherwise specified, return and risk figures have been
annualized. The reported risk and return figures presented in the report are indicative,
based on index data, and do not represent any individual or aggregate set of actual
portfolios. Actual risk and return for your portfolio may be impacted by rebalancing
frequency, transaction costs, execution valuations, and additional management fees that
differ from the assumptions used in this report. No assurance can be given as to the
actual return on any portfolio.
Allocation (%) represents the target percentage weight of the indicated index within the
asset allocation model. The report reflects the periodic rebalancing back to the target
allocation weights of the model on a monthly basis; however, in between rebalancing
dates, the actual portfolio weights will vary based on changes in the market value of the
indices.
Asset Allocation Model represents the primary investment strategy under consideration.
When selected, a Comparison Model may also be included as an alternative investment
strategy, asset allocation, or blended benchmark. The Asset Allocation Profile page
provides details on the specific model and indices used.
Customized Asset Allocation Your advisor may customize or tailor an asset allocation
model to better meet your specific needs and preferences. In this case, the Asset Allocation
Model or Comparison Model will be labelled as a “Customized Asset Allocation” and the
Asset Allocation Profile page provides details on the specific model and indices used. If you
have any questions about the use of a customized asset allocation model, please be sure to
discuss them with your Investment Advisor or Portfolio Manager.
Rebalancing For analysis purposes, the Asset Allocation Model and the Comparison Model
are rebalanced monthly back to the target allocation percentages for each index. Monthly
returns are calculated on a calendar basis and rebalancing is assumed to occur at the end
of each month.
Transaction Costs The analysis relies on index data and does not incorporate any
transaction costs that may be incurred during the initial purchase of investment products,
during the periodic rebalancing of the portfolio, or during liquidation of the investments.
Management Fees The analysis relies on index data and does not incorporate any ongoing
product fees, advisory or management fees, or any other costs that may be incurred in an
actual investment portfolio.
Historical Analysis. Throughout this report, the hypothetical return of the Asset Allocation
Model is used to illustrate the historical performance of the strategy, the historical
relationship between risk and return and, if specified, the differences between the Asset
Allocation Model and the Comparison Model. Past performance does not guarantee future
performance and there is no guarantee that historical relationships between risk and return
will continue to hold in the future.
The information contained in this report is updated regularly; however, the report may not reflect changes recently made to source data or material and the information, data and
calculations contained in the report are provided on a commercial efforts basis only. There is no assurance that the data including prices, weightings, ratios, ratings, or recommended
securities will remain the same over time. None of RBC Dominion Securities Inc., its affiliates or any other person makes any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to, or
accepts any responsibility for, the accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for errors or omissions.
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
32
Data and Report Disclosures (continued)
Standard Deviation is a statistical measure of how much variability there is in observed
returns. A lower standard deviation indicates that the asset class or asset allocation strategy
has been more predictable historically, while a higher standard deviation indicates an
increased likelihood of very high or very low returns. Past performance does not guarantee
future performance.
Sharpe Ratio is a risk-adjusted performance measure that is calculated as the ratio of the
portfolio’s excess return over cash to the standard deviation of returns. A higher value
indicates a higher realized return per unit of risk taken within the strategy. Past performance
does not guarantee future performance.
Trailing Returns are indicated as relating to a relative period of time (Year To Date/YTD, 1
Month, 1 Year, 3 Year, etc.) and are measured relative to the final date in the analysis
period.
Calendar Year Returns are indicated as relating to a specific year (2009, 2010, etc.).
Comparative Indices. Certain graphs show various asset class indices to provide
context and the ability to compare the asset allocation model to representative
benchmarks. The most appropriate indices to include in the analysis changes with your
objectives, preferences, and investment knowledge; and the specific indices used have
been selected by your advisor to be appropriate and representative. If you have any
questions about the specific indices included, please be sure to discuss them with your
Investment Advisor or Portfolio Manager.
Rolling Returns are calculated by computing the holding period returns over a specified
window (usually 12 or 36 months) and then moving this window through time over the
entire analysis period in order to calculate the range of holding period returns
experienced. The best and worst rolling return represents the highest or lowest
cumulative 12 or 36 month return that would have resulted from following the asset
allocation strategy throughout the analysis period; while the distribution of returns
provides an indication of how likely achieving a target rate of return or falling below a
minimum rate of return has been in the past. Past performance does not guarantee future
performance.
Drawdown is calculated as the maximum loss in portfolio value from a historical high-
watermark to a subsequent minimum. The drawdown measures the severity of the loss in
portfolio value and extends until the initial portfolio value has been fully recovered. A
related concept is the Recovery Period which measures the length of time from when
the drawdown begins until the initial portfolio value is fully recovered. Maximum
Drawdown represents the largest peak to trough loss that would have resulted over the
analysis period while the Longest Recovery Period represents the longest time to
recover the portfolio’s high-watermark value. The maximum drawdown and the longest
recovery period may occur at different points in time. Both metrics are very useful and
intuitive ways of measuring the historical downside risk of the strategy. Past performance
does not guarantee future performance.
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
33
Investment Risks
Market Risk Any investment is subject to market fluctuations and thus there can be no
assurance that an investment will return its value or that appreciation will occur.
Concentration Risk Where significant percentages of a portfolio are held in a single
security or asset class or highly correlated securities, volatility may be very high relative to
broader market indices. Concentrations may occur with counterparties (issuer), asset
class, issuer, industry, or currency.
Credit risk This risk is typically associated with fixed income instruments, but applies to
any instrument where repayment depends on the ability of an entity to settle an obligation.
The risk borne is that the issuer may default on their obligation.
Counterparty Risk Conceptually the same as ‘Credit Risk’, but generally used to describe
the risk of less direct exposures such as the issuer on a structured product, some
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), or the entity behind a derivatives contract.
Transparency / Complexity Risk Some products such as hedge funds, structured
products, fund of funds, and private equity may not give clients full or real-time
transparency on holdings or have complex underlying positions. Investors should take
particular care in understanding the structure of these holdings and the nature of the
product prior to investing.
Leverage Risk Where lending is either secured by a portfolio or is embedded in a
product, investors may be particularly exposed to increased market risk and liquidity risk in
adverse markets.
Currency Risk Currency can either directly or indirectly affect an investment. The value
of a holding will be directly affected by foreign exchange movements where the investor’s
reference currency is different from the investment currency. For investments such as
equities, the value of the underlying investment may also be indirectly affected by
currency where foreign exchange movements influence the market economy and
competitiveness of companies.
Liquidity Risk There are two types of ‘liquidity risk’. Firstly, by design a structure may
render funds inaccessible to the investor over certain periods of time as a result of lockups
or redemptions leaving the investor open to market risk during these interim periods.
Secondly, if market volumes in an investment are low, an investor may be unable to find a
buyer or seller to match their position or may only be able to buy or sell at
disadvantageous prices.
Political Risk Countries with political instability or where political bodies can exert a
strong influence on markets and business practices may be subject to greater volatility.
Political risk is present if the potential returns on an investment could be significantly
affected by a political entity’s decisions rather than by predominantly economic and
market factors. Political risk may include potential for currency controls, expropriation and
insufficient legal or regulatory infrastructure.
Rollover Risk Rollover risk is faced by countries and companies when their debt is close
to maturity and must be ‘rolled over’ into new debt. If conditions for the issuer have
deteriorated since the issue to be refinanced, the costs of the new financing may be
considerably higher, or it may not even be possible to find new buyers to provide
refinancing for maturing debt.
Inflation Risk Erosion of real capital value relative to its future purchasing power.
The following represents some of the key portfolio risks investors should consider; however, it is not intended to be an exhaustive catalogue of all potential risks, nor is every risk listed
necessarily applicable to every investment product or security.
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016

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WINK Calgary presents "Learn to love your money - basics of investing"

  • 1. Learn To Love Your Money – Basics of Investing Investment Allocation and Risk Management RBC Wealth Management Prepared by: Gwen I. Becker, CIM, CFP, FCSI Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor 403-299-5265 | gwen.becker@rbc.com Becker Cheng & Charbonneau Wealth Management
  • 2. Agenda 1. Types of Relationship with Investment Managers Pages 3-5  Advisory vs. Fiduciary Duty 2. Asset Allocation for Lifecycles Pages 6-14  Models  Historical Returns  Index Descriptions  Risk Metrics 3. Timeless Risk Management Strategies Pages 15-16  Sector & Position Limits  CAD vs. USD 4. Market Update Pages 17-26  Commodity Super-cycle  CAD vs. USD  Bear Market Statistics 2RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 3. Types of Relationships with Investment Managers 3RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 4. Types of Advisors  IIROC  CSC, CPH, WME  Investment Dealer  Agency relationship  KYC  Wealth & Estate Planning  Domestic, US & International stocks, bonds & Specialty pooled funds  Commission based compensation  Fee based compensation  Fees tax-deductible  MFDA  IFIC, CFP  Mutual Fund Dealer  Agency Relationship  KYP  Domestic, International & Specialty Mutual Funds, Insurance  Front end load, DSC & Trailer Fee compensation  ASC or IIROC  CFA, CIM, CFP  Fiduciary Duty  Investment Policy Statement  Portfolio Management  Wealth & Estate Planning  Domestic, US & International stocks, bonds & Specialty pooled funds  Fee based compensation as a % of assets (fully transparent)  Fees tax-deductible Investment Advisor Financial Planner Portfolio Manager February 18, 2016 4RBC DOMINION SECURITIES
  • 5. Client / Advisor Relationships – Value Proposition Client Prefers:  Deal flow  Specialization  Active Involvement  Risk management & wealth management focus  Transaction based cost structure  Fee-based Reporting  Monthly Account Statements  Quarterly Reporting Cost Structure  1-3% trade value commission  Spread on bonds  ~1% Fund Trailer Fees  Commission to Broker from Issuer  Fee-based Investment Advisor Financial Planner Portfolio Manager Client Prefers:  Variety of investment products  Planning focus  Advisory Relationship with active involvement  Fee-based Reporting  Monthly & Quarterly Account Statements  Fund performance Cost Structure  Average Fund MER ~2.50%  Front-end or Back-end Sales Commissions (FE Load/DSCs)  ~1% Fund Trailer Fees Client Prefers:  Customized discretionary portfolio management  Risk management & wealth management focus  Fiduciary Duty based  Professional Fee-based Reporting  Monthly Account Statements  Quarterly portfolio & performance reporting  Benchmarks Cost Structure  1.25-1.50% all-in annual fee (tax deductible)  Declining fee schedule  Cannot “double dip” on bond spreads (commissions) or issuance February 18, 2016 5RBC DOMINION SECURITIES
  • 6. Asset Allocation for Lifecycles 6RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 7. 7 Simply Your Life – Pension Style PortfoliosExpectedReturn Risk Profiles The focus is long term capital appreciation with a secondary focus on wealth preservation. The majority of the portfolio will typically be invested in a blend of growth assets. The investor in this category has a higher tolerance for risk over their investment horizon. The focus is capital preservation. The portfolio will typically be invested mainly in fixed income and other low volatility instruments. The investor in this category has a low tolerance for loss over their investment horizon. The focus is the wealth preservation which includes an element of growth to retain the real (inflation – adjusted) value of the portfolio. The portfolio will typically include fixed income instruments as well as some exposure to growth assets. The investor in this category has some tolerance for loss over their investment horizon. The focus is a balance between capital appreciation and wealth preservation. The portfolio may include exposure to all asset classes and carries moderate risk of loss over the investment horizon. Very Conservative Expected Volatility Conservative Balanced Growth Aggressive Growth The focus is the maximization of long term capital appreciation. The portfolio will be invested mainly in growth assets and may have a higher proportion of higher risk investments and possible concentrations. The investor in this category has a high tolerance for risk over their investment horizon. Very Conservative Conservative Balanced Growth Aggressive Growth Efficient Frontier Cash Fixed Income Equities Asset Allocation Profiles are based on RBC's Strategic Asset Allocation Framework and tradditional asset classes. Expected Risk & Return and the Efficient Frontier are illustrative based on long term (5-10 Year) time horizon. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016 Boomers  Gen X Millennials  Boomers Gen X  Millennials Source: RBC Dominion Securities
  • 8. 8 Asset Allocation – Index Descriptions Asset Allocation Model: Balanced Profile Sub Asset Class Index Name Geography Allocation Cash 5.0% Cash - Money Market DEX Canadian Trsury Bill 30 Day Canada 5.0% Fixed Income 40.0% FI - Government Bonds DEX Government Bond TR Canada 14.0% FI - Corporate Bonds DEX Universe Corporate Bond TR Canada 16.0% FI - High Yield Bonds Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II USD US 5.0% FI - Emerging Markets JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified TR USD Emerging Markets 5.0% Equity 55.0% Eq - Cap/Style: Large Cap S&P/TSX Composite TR Canada 20.0% Eq - Cap/Style: Large Cap S&P 500 Total Return US 20.0% Eq - Cap/Style: Large Cap MSCI EAFE Int'l ex. US 10.0% Eq - Region: Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets (Net) Emerging Markets 5.0% For modelling purposes, the indices used to represent the indicated asset classes are described on Page 28 under the heading "Index Descriptions". Reference Currency: CAD. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016 Source: RBC Dominion Securities
  • 9. 9 Asset Allocation – Portfolio Composition Asset Class Very Conservative Conservative Balanced Growth Aggressive Growth Cash 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Canadian Cash 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Fixed Income 75% 60% 40% 25% - Government 40% 26% 14% 5% - Corporate - Investment Grade 35% 26% 16% 10% - Corporate - High Yield - 4% 5% 5% - Emerging Markets - 4% 5% 5% - Equities 20% 35% 55% 70% 95% Canadian Domestic 10% 15% 20% 24% 30% US 5% 10% 20% 24% 30% International (EAFE) 5% 10% 10% 15% 25% Emerging Markets - - 5% 7% 10% RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016 Gen XBoomers Millennials Source: RBC Dominion Securities
  • 10. 10 Historical Performance Very Conservative Conservative Balanced Growth Aggressive Growth Annualized Return: Ending September 2015 1 Year 4.2% 5.2% 5.6% 5.5% 4.4% 3 Year 4.6% 7.3% 10.0% 11.7% 13.6% 5 Year 5.0% 6.6% 8.2% 9.0% 9.7% 10 Year 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.2% 5.9% 20 Year 6.7% 7.0% 7.3% 7.2% 6.8% Max Common History: Jan 1994 To Sep 2015 6.6% 7.0% 7.3% 7.3% 7.0% Distribution of Returns January 1994 To September 2015 Best 12 Month Rolling Return 22.0% 24.2% 29.3% 31.9% 35.0% Median 12 Month Rolling Return 7.0% 8.0% 9.7% 10.8% 11.9% Worst 12 Month Rolling Return -5.6% -11.3% -18.8% -24.3% -32.8% % Positive Calendar Years 90.5% 90.5% 85.7% 76.2% 76.2% % Negative Calendar Years 9.5% 9.5% 14.3% 23.8% 23.8% Max Consecutive Calendar Yrs (+) 13 8 7 6 6 Max Consecutive Calendar Yrs (-) 1 1 2 3 3 Risk Measures: January 1994 To September 2015 Volatility of Returns (St. Dev.) 4.4% 5.5% 7.5% 9.2% 11.7% Average Drawdown -1.6% -2.3% -3.3% -4.0% -5.9% Average Recovery Period (# Months) 3.3 4.4 5.0 5.0 7.4 Max Drawdown -9.2% -13.9% -22.2% -29.2% -39.0% Max Drawdown Date Feb-94 Jul-08 Jul-07 Jul-07 Sep-00 Longest Recovery Period Length 13 34 41 53 67 Longest Recovery Period Start Date Feb-94 Oct-00 Oct-00 Oct-00 Jun-07 For modelling purposes, the indices used to represent the indicated asset classes are described on Page 28 under the heading "Index Descriptions". Reference Currency: CAD. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016 Gen XBoomers Millennials Source: RBC Dominion Securities
  • 11. 11 Calendar Year Performance – Best to Worst Very Conservative Conservative Balanced Growth Aggressive Growth More Conservative More Aggressive 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) 16.58% EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) 12.17% Em Eq (MSCI EM) 28.57% Em Eq (MSCI EM) 16.33% Em Eq (MSCI EM) 29.54% Em Eq (MSCI EM) 32.62% Em Eq (MSCI EM) 19.34% Can FI (DEX Govt) 9.03% Em Eq (MSCI EM) 54.26% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) 17.61% Can FI (DEX Govt) 10.2% Em Eq (MSCI EM) 14.86% US Eq (SP 500 TR) 41.75% US Eq (SP 500 TR) 24.34% US FI (ML US HY) 11.03% Can FI (DEX Govt) 8.78% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) 26.73% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) 14.49% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) 24.13% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) 26.77% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) 9.84% EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) 7.38% US FI (ML US HY) 36.12% Em Eq (MSCI EM) 12.65% EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) 9.77% EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) 14.09% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) 31.47% EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) 17.53% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) 9.28% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) 8.58% Aggressive Growth 16.29% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) 11.42% Aggressive Growth 12.98% Aggressive Growth 20.21% Can FI (DEX Govt) 4.45% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 2.57% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) 35.06% Aggressive Growth 9.85% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) 8.25% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) 13.97% Aggressive Growth 24.07% US FI (ML US HY) 12.14% Can FI (DEX Govt) 7.71% Very Conservative 3.12% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) 14.35% Aggressive Growth 9.82% Growth 10.88% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) 17.27% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 4.27% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) 0.24% Aggressive Growth 21.81% Growth 9.67% US FI (ML US HY) 6.74% US Eq (SP 500 TR) 12.68% Growth 17.57% Growth 12.11% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 4.37% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 2.38% Growth 13.57% Growth 8.58% Balanced 9.78% Growth 16.26% Very Conservative 2.88% Very Conservative -2.99% Growth 20.48% Balanced 9.29% Very Conservative 5.79% US FI (ML US HY) 12.28% US FI (ML US HY) 15.02% Aggressive Growth 12.06% Very Conservative 4.13% Conservative -1.27% Balanced 12.06% Balanced 8.07% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) 9.75% US Eq (SP 500 TR) 16.18% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) 1.8% Conservative -8.95% Balanced 18.04% US FI (ML US HY) 9.16% US Eq (SP 500 TR) 4.39% Aggressive Growth 11.09% Balanced 13.18% Balanced 11.68% Em Eq (MSCI EM) 3.49% US FI (ML US HY) -3.17% Conservative 10.24% Conservative 7.76% Conservative 8.36% Balanced 13.52% Conservative 0.95% US FI (ML US HY) -10.14% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) 16.26% US Eq (SP 500 TR) 9.06% Conservative 3.55% Growth 10.16% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) 13% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) 10.56% Conservative 1.5% Balanced -6.41% Very Conservative 9.22% Very Conservative 7.7% Very Conservative 7.83% US FI (ML US HY) 12.15% Aggressive Growth 0.78% Balanced -16.26% Conservative 14.09% Conservative 8.2% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 0.91% Balanced 8.96% Conservative 7.44% Conservative 9.98% Balanced -1.05% Em Eq (MSCI EM) -7.39% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) 8.5% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) 7.3% Can FI (DEX Govt) 6.63% EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) 10.24% Balanced 0.43% Growth -21.47% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) 13.88% Very Conservative 7.64% Balanced 0.83% Conservative 7.23% Em Eq (MSCI EM) 4.29% Can FI (DEX Govt) 9.3% Growth -3.84% Growth -10.06% US Eq (SP 500 TR) 6.17% Can FI (DEX Govt) 7.09% EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) 6.58% Conservative 10.06% Growth 0.04% US Eq (SP 500 TR) -23.08% EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) 12.18% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) 7.34% Growth -1.6% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) 7.19% Very Conservative 2.06% Very Conservative 8.87% US Eq (SP 500 TR) -6.35% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) -12.43% Can FI (DEX Govt) 6.05% EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) 3.42% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) 6.02% Very Conservative 7.12% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) -4.82% Aggressive Growth -28.81% Very Conservative 10.83% Can FI (DEX Govt) 6.52% Aggressive Growth -5.49% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) 6.22% EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) 1.46% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) 7.59% Aggressive Growth -9.15% Aggressive Growth -15.58% US FI (ML US HY) 5.74% US FI (ML US HY) 2.73% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 2.58% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) 4.4% EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) -9.11% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) -30.88% US Eq (SP 500 TR) 9.29% EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) 6.36% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) -8.71% Very Conservative 5.39% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 0.11% Em Eq (MSCI EM) 7.01% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) -12.57% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) -17.03% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 2.86% US Eq (SP 500 TR) 2.73% US Eq (SP 500 TR) 1.41% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 3.94% US Eq (SP 500 TR) -9.68% Can Eq (SP/TSX TR) -33% Can FI (DEX Govt) 1.57% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) 2.11% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) -10.16% Can FI (DEX Govt) 2.65% Can FI (DEX Govt) -2.9% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) 4.03% Intl Eq (MSCI EAFE) -16.52% US Eq (SP 500 TR) -23.11% EM FI (JPM EMBI Gbl Div) 0.84% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 2.25% US FI (ML US HY) -0.68% Can FI (DEX Govt) 3.92% US FI (ML US HY) -12.5% Em Eq (MSCI EM) -43.03% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 0.37% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 0.43% Em Eq (MSCI EM) -16.58% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 0.91% Can FI (DEX Univ Corp) -3.48% Can Cash (DEX 30D Tbill) 0.81% Asset Allocation Models are described on Page 4. Indices used to calculate the performance are described on Page 28 under the heading "Index Descriptions". Reference Currency: CAD. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016 Source: RBC Dominion Securities
  • 12. 12 Cumulative Portfolio Growth Analysis Period: January 1994 To September 2015 The Asset Allocation Model is described on Page 13. Indices used to calculate the performance are described on Page 28 under the heading "Index Descriptions". Reference Currency: CAD. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Asset Allocation Model: Balanced Profile - Canadian International Model CAD Cash DEX Canadian Trsy Bill 30 Day CAD Fixed Income DEX Universe (%Total Return) CAD Equities S&P/TSX Composite TR Index (Canada) RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016 Source: RBC Dominion Securities
  • 13. 13 Balanced Model - Calendar Year Return Distribution Analysis Period: 1994 To 2014 2014 2013 2012 2009 2011 2006 2010 2003 2007 1999 2005 1998 2004 1997 2002 2000 1996 2008 2001 1994 1995 -50% to -40% -40% to -30% -30% to -20% -20% to -10% -10% to -0% 0% to 10% 10% to 20% 20% to 30% 30% to 40% 40% to 50% > 50 % AssetAllocation Model Asset Allocation Model: Balanced Profile - Canadian International Model Legend 1990+ 2000+ 2010+ Most Recent The Asset Allocation Model is described on Page 13. Indices used to calculate the performance are described on Page 28 under the heading "Index Descriptions". Reference Currency: CAD. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016 Source: RBC Dominion Securities
  • 14. 14RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 15. 15 Let the Investment Professionals Remove Emotions from Decision-Making RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016 Source: www.google.ca
  • 16. Timeless Risk Management Strategies 16RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 17. 17 1. Control Sector Exposure  No more than > 20% in any one sector 2. Control Single Stock Exposure  No more than > 5% in any one stock 3. CAD vs. USD exposure (Global Diversification)  When in commodity super cycle, overweight CAD and CAD equities  When NOT in a commodity super cycle, overweight USD and US equities  Buy USD when CAD close to or above parity  Hedge USD exposure below $0.70/USD – 0.65/USD Timeless Risk Management Strategies RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 18. 18 Market Update RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 19. The Long Term – Stocks vs. Commodity Super Cycle Source: Ned Davis 19RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 20. 20 Past Oil Corrections - Peak to Trough Bottoms  Average oil correction (peak to trough) is -57%  Current correction -70%  Oil should be close to a bottom but from a secular perspective, many headwinds still persist  On an inflation adjusted basis, oil looking like it’s nearing a bottom (next page) February 18, 2016
  • 21. 21 Long Term Oil Prices (inflation adjusted) Source: MacroTrends.NET - As of January 14, 2016 February 18, 2016
  • 22. The Long Term - Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) Cycles 22RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016 Source: Fidelity
  • 23. House Fire (Recession) vs. Kitchen Fire (Correction)? Source: Ned Davis 23RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 24. Trend is your Friend – Put the Sector Odds in your Favor Source: Morningstar CPMS 24RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 25. Opportunity – Dividend Growth  7 Fed tightening cycles since 1973 – all stocks were weak in the initial 3 months post-tightening  However, dividend growers and payers outperformed non-payers for the 24 month period after the beginning of each tightening cycle 25RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 26. Risk Management & Strategy in Current Environment  Higher cash reserves in-lieu of bonds & stocks • Strategically look to re-invest cash once  Bond yields higher  Market valuations more appealing  Core Weighting in Investment Grade Bonds (Defense) • Don’t be tempted by higher rate junk bonds at this stage of cycle  Neutral stocks relative to bonds • Will begin reducing stock exposure once  Money becomes tight or yield curve inverted  Valuations become excessive  Global diversification matters in current environment • Exposure to US dollar remains favorable  Hedge below $0.70 CAD/USD to locking in currency gains • Minimal exposure to commodity heavy countries, sectors and companies 26RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 27. 27 Disclosures RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 28. 28 Index Descriptions Index Name Sub Asset Class Description Data Start Date Cash DEX Canadian Trsury Bill 30 Day Cash - Money Market The DEX Canadian Trsury Bill 30 Day Index consists of 30-day Treasury Bills issued by the Canadian Government. 06/30/1973 Fixed Income DEX Universe Corporate Bond TR FI - Corporate Bonds The DEX Univ Corp TR Index consists of a held-to-maturity portfolio consisting of, primarily, Canadian dollar- denominated investment grade corporate bonds with effective maturities in the applicable Maturity Year. The effective maturity of an eligible corporate bond is determined by its actual maturity or the anticipated maturity of the security as determined in accordance with a rules-based methodology developed by PC-Bond. 01/31/1986 DEX Universe Bond TR FI - Aggregate Bonds The DEX Universe Bond TR Index consists of the broad Canadian investment-grade fixed income market. As of December 31, 2010, the Universe Index consisted of 1,103 securities, with a total market value of approximately $1.031 Trillion. The Universe Index has been published since 1979. 12/31/1979 JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified TR USD FI - Emerging Markets The JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified TR Index consists of external-currency-denominated Brady bonds, loans, Eurobonds and dollar-denominated local market debt instruments with a minimum credit rating of BBB+/Baa1. 01/31/1994 Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II USD FI - High Yield Bonds The Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Index consists of USD- denominated, below investment grade rated corporate debt publically issued in the US domestic market. 09/30/1986 DEX Government Bond TR FI - Government Bonds The DEX Government Bond TR Index consists of selected constituents of the DEX Universe Bond Index laddered into different term buckets in years. Index constituents are rebalanced annually, on June 30 each year. 01/31/1980 Data Sources: Bloomberg, Zephyr, Morningstar, HFRI/HFRX, Cambridge Associates It is not possible to invest directly in an index. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 29. 29 Index Descriptions Index Name Sub Asset Class Description Data Start Date Equity S&P 500 Total Return Eq - Cap/Style: Large Cap The S&P 500 Total Return Index consists of the 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy, capturing 75% coverage of U.S. equities. 01/31/1963 MSCI EAFE Eq - Cap/Style: Large Cap The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) consists of the equity markets of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 22 developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. It is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index. 01/31/1970 MSCI Emerging Markets (Net) Eq - Region: Emerging Markets The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (Net) consists of equity indices from 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, Africa, Asia and Middle East. The index is capitalization-weighted and excludes closed markets, as well as those shares in otherwise free markets that are not purchasable by foreigners. The benchmark is widely used as a measure of overall developing market stock performance around the world. 01/31/1989 S&P/TSX Composite TR Eq - Cap/Style: Large Cap The S&P/TSX Composite Index consists of stocks of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization. The Toronto Stock Exchange listed companies in this index comprise about 70% of market capitalization for all Canadian-based companies listed on the TSX. It replaces the earlier TSE 300 index. 01/31/1963 Data Sources: Bloomberg, Zephyr, Morningstar, HFRI/HFRX, Cambridge Associates It is not possible to invest directly in an index. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 30. 30 General Disclaimer The information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC Dominion Securities Inc*. from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by RBC Dominion Securities Inc., its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All charts, illustrations, examples and other demonstrative content contained in this report have been provided for illustrative purposes only as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. Whilst efforts are made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information contained in this report at the time of publication, errors and omissions may occur. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Hypothetical historical data used in this report, including any underlying assumptions used, is not indicative of future performance or value. Any upward or downward trend presented during the Analysis Time Horizon is not an indication that the portfolio is likely to increase or decrease in value at any time. Each legal jurisdiction has its own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as the process for doing so. As a result, any securities or investment products discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Additionally this report is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as a securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer in that jurisdiction. The contents of this report are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to purchase a particular security or investment product. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice and you are advised to seek independent legal, tax and accounting advice prior to acting upon anything contained in this report. Interest rates, market conditions, tax and legal rules and other important factors which will be pertinent to your circumstances are subject to change. Specific investment strategies should be considered relative to the suitability of the products contained therein, your objectives and risk tolerances. For information on any security or investment product mentioned in this report you are advised to consult the applicable offering document pertaining to such security prior to investing. To the full extent permitted by law neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor any of its affiliates, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein. No matter contained in this document may be reproduced or copied by any means without the prior consent of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Additional information available upon request. RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. is a member company of RBC Wealth Management, a business segment of Royal Bank of Canada. ®Registered trademarks of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence. © RBC Dominion Securities Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 31. 31 Data and Report Disclosures Asset Allocation is the process of determining the relative weight of various asset types and strategies within a portfolio. An appropriate asset allocation model forms the basis for effective portfolio construction, and enforces investment management discipline consistent with your objectives and risk preferences. Comparing different asset allocation models can help you better understand the potential risk and return trade-off and validate that a proposed strategy is consistent with your expectations. Base Currency. For analysis purposes, available indices are converted into a common base currency. As a result, indices denominated in a currency other that the base currency will be impacted by changes in the relative currency valuation over the Analysis Time Horizon. This will affect total portfolio returns and volatility. Risk and Return. Unless otherwise specified, return and risk figures have been annualized. The reported risk and return figures presented in the report are indicative, based on index data, and do not represent any individual or aggregate set of actual portfolios. Actual risk and return for your portfolio may be impacted by rebalancing frequency, transaction costs, execution valuations, and additional management fees that differ from the assumptions used in this report. No assurance can be given as to the actual return on any portfolio. Allocation (%) represents the target percentage weight of the indicated index within the asset allocation model. The report reflects the periodic rebalancing back to the target allocation weights of the model on a monthly basis; however, in between rebalancing dates, the actual portfolio weights will vary based on changes in the market value of the indices. Asset Allocation Model represents the primary investment strategy under consideration. When selected, a Comparison Model may also be included as an alternative investment strategy, asset allocation, or blended benchmark. The Asset Allocation Profile page provides details on the specific model and indices used. Customized Asset Allocation Your advisor may customize or tailor an asset allocation model to better meet your specific needs and preferences. In this case, the Asset Allocation Model or Comparison Model will be labelled as a “Customized Asset Allocation” and the Asset Allocation Profile page provides details on the specific model and indices used. If you have any questions about the use of a customized asset allocation model, please be sure to discuss them with your Investment Advisor or Portfolio Manager. Rebalancing For analysis purposes, the Asset Allocation Model and the Comparison Model are rebalanced monthly back to the target allocation percentages for each index. Monthly returns are calculated on a calendar basis and rebalancing is assumed to occur at the end of each month. Transaction Costs The analysis relies on index data and does not incorporate any transaction costs that may be incurred during the initial purchase of investment products, during the periodic rebalancing of the portfolio, or during liquidation of the investments. Management Fees The analysis relies on index data and does not incorporate any ongoing product fees, advisory or management fees, or any other costs that may be incurred in an actual investment portfolio. Historical Analysis. Throughout this report, the hypothetical return of the Asset Allocation Model is used to illustrate the historical performance of the strategy, the historical relationship between risk and return and, if specified, the differences between the Asset Allocation Model and the Comparison Model. Past performance does not guarantee future performance and there is no guarantee that historical relationships between risk and return will continue to hold in the future. The information contained in this report is updated regularly; however, the report may not reflect changes recently made to source data or material and the information, data and calculations contained in the report are provided on a commercial efforts basis only. There is no assurance that the data including prices, weightings, ratios, ratings, or recommended securities will remain the same over time. None of RBC Dominion Securities Inc., its affiliates or any other person makes any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to, or accepts any responsibility for, the accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for errors or omissions. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 32. 32 Data and Report Disclosures (continued) Standard Deviation is a statistical measure of how much variability there is in observed returns. A lower standard deviation indicates that the asset class or asset allocation strategy has been more predictable historically, while a higher standard deviation indicates an increased likelihood of very high or very low returns. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Sharpe Ratio is a risk-adjusted performance measure that is calculated as the ratio of the portfolio’s excess return over cash to the standard deviation of returns. A higher value indicates a higher realized return per unit of risk taken within the strategy. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Trailing Returns are indicated as relating to a relative period of time (Year To Date/YTD, 1 Month, 1 Year, 3 Year, etc.) and are measured relative to the final date in the analysis period. Calendar Year Returns are indicated as relating to a specific year (2009, 2010, etc.). Comparative Indices. Certain graphs show various asset class indices to provide context and the ability to compare the asset allocation model to representative benchmarks. The most appropriate indices to include in the analysis changes with your objectives, preferences, and investment knowledge; and the specific indices used have been selected by your advisor to be appropriate and representative. If you have any questions about the specific indices included, please be sure to discuss them with your Investment Advisor or Portfolio Manager. Rolling Returns are calculated by computing the holding period returns over a specified window (usually 12 or 36 months) and then moving this window through time over the entire analysis period in order to calculate the range of holding period returns experienced. The best and worst rolling return represents the highest or lowest cumulative 12 or 36 month return that would have resulted from following the asset allocation strategy throughout the analysis period; while the distribution of returns provides an indication of how likely achieving a target rate of return or falling below a minimum rate of return has been in the past. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Drawdown is calculated as the maximum loss in portfolio value from a historical high- watermark to a subsequent minimum. The drawdown measures the severity of the loss in portfolio value and extends until the initial portfolio value has been fully recovered. A related concept is the Recovery Period which measures the length of time from when the drawdown begins until the initial portfolio value is fully recovered. Maximum Drawdown represents the largest peak to trough loss that would have resulted over the analysis period while the Longest Recovery Period represents the longest time to recover the portfolio’s high-watermark value. The maximum drawdown and the longest recovery period may occur at different points in time. Both metrics are very useful and intuitive ways of measuring the historical downside risk of the strategy. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016
  • 33. 33 Investment Risks Market Risk Any investment is subject to market fluctuations and thus there can be no assurance that an investment will return its value or that appreciation will occur. Concentration Risk Where significant percentages of a portfolio are held in a single security or asset class or highly correlated securities, volatility may be very high relative to broader market indices. Concentrations may occur with counterparties (issuer), asset class, issuer, industry, or currency. Credit risk This risk is typically associated with fixed income instruments, but applies to any instrument where repayment depends on the ability of an entity to settle an obligation. The risk borne is that the issuer may default on their obligation. Counterparty Risk Conceptually the same as ‘Credit Risk’, but generally used to describe the risk of less direct exposures such as the issuer on a structured product, some Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), or the entity behind a derivatives contract. Transparency / Complexity Risk Some products such as hedge funds, structured products, fund of funds, and private equity may not give clients full or real-time transparency on holdings or have complex underlying positions. Investors should take particular care in understanding the structure of these holdings and the nature of the product prior to investing. Leverage Risk Where lending is either secured by a portfolio or is embedded in a product, investors may be particularly exposed to increased market risk and liquidity risk in adverse markets. Currency Risk Currency can either directly or indirectly affect an investment. The value of a holding will be directly affected by foreign exchange movements where the investor’s reference currency is different from the investment currency. For investments such as equities, the value of the underlying investment may also be indirectly affected by currency where foreign exchange movements influence the market economy and competitiveness of companies. Liquidity Risk There are two types of ‘liquidity risk’. Firstly, by design a structure may render funds inaccessible to the investor over certain periods of time as a result of lockups or redemptions leaving the investor open to market risk during these interim periods. Secondly, if market volumes in an investment are low, an investor may be unable to find a buyer or seller to match their position or may only be able to buy or sell at disadvantageous prices. Political Risk Countries with political instability or where political bodies can exert a strong influence on markets and business practices may be subject to greater volatility. Political risk is present if the potential returns on an investment could be significantly affected by a political entity’s decisions rather than by predominantly economic and market factors. Political risk may include potential for currency controls, expropriation and insufficient legal or regulatory infrastructure. Rollover Risk Rollover risk is faced by countries and companies when their debt is close to maturity and must be ‘rolled over’ into new debt. If conditions for the issuer have deteriorated since the issue to be refinanced, the costs of the new financing may be considerably higher, or it may not even be possible to find new buyers to provide refinancing for maturing debt. Inflation Risk Erosion of real capital value relative to its future purchasing power. The following represents some of the key portfolio risks investors should consider; however, it is not intended to be an exhaustive catalogue of all potential risks, nor is every risk listed necessarily applicable to every investment product or security. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. | 18 January 2016

Editor's Notes

  1. Highly dependent on risk tolerance (ability and willingness to take risk) and more importantly, emotional capacity to take risk…
  2. Negative Returns – think about dollars not %s, also remember that a -50% takes a +100% to get back to even…
  3. Predicting asset class and stock winners very difficult – take a balanced or balanced approach Look at Green & Gold which are Balanced & Balanced Growth vs. Red (Aggressive Growth) Emotional cycle typically sabotages investors from meeting their long term goals
  4. Gut check – right here with the commodity markets Professional Sober 2nd Thought
  5. Blue line is commodity index Red line is US stock market back to 1900 Commodity bull markets run opposite to US stock bull markets 2000 – 2007 was a commodity bull market = Canada did very well 2011 to current, the US Market has dramatically outperformed Canada Why? Because they run opposite!
  6. Back to 1970’s – CAD vs. US$ Long term trends generally take hold
  7. TSX currently -20% from peak ($15.5K) S&P500/Global Markets ~ -10% Current bear market not as a result of tight monetary conditions >> we don’t think this is a global recession bear market. House Fire = Recession ~ -30-50% downside vs. Kitchen Fire (mkt correction) = ~-20% mkt correction (not a recession)
  8. Non-Payers = don’t pay dividend Growers = pay dividend + grow dividends (staples, telcos, banks) Payers = pay dividend but don’t typically grow due to paying out most of cash flow (REIT, utilities, Energy, Materials)