Feeding 9 billion
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Presentation for Retired Veterinarians' Society, Melbourne - 5 October, 2016. Assembles slides from ILRI, CGIAR and Falvey's book 'Beliefs that Bias Food & Agriculture'. Main point is that multiple objectives confuses real food security for food-deficit nations; this includes unthought beliefs in sustainability. Three simple points are concluded: 1) sustained research is essential (this is what sustainability can only mean in practical terms); 2) food (grain) reserves are an essential component of real food security despite their cost and contrary to free trade rhetoric; 3) national food security plans are essential for food-deficit nations, not for major food exporters and such plans should be above other measures if the stability required for governance is to be maintained.
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Feeding 9 billion
- 1. Feeding 9+ Billion Prof. Lindsay Falvey FTSE
- 3. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed Running out of landFigure 2.4: Humanity’s ecological footprint by component 1961-2005
- 4. www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfed What is Changing? Environmental Change 4
- 5. www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfed Humanity’s greatest challenge is to produce 60% more food by 2050 without destroying the environment 800 million hungry; 1.2 billion extreme poverty 9 Billion need 50% more food and energy Increasing risks of floods and droughts
- 7. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed A Confused verbal marketplace
- 9. ◄
- 10. www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfed Modern food systems are dynamic, complex and fundamentally important to security and survival
- 15. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed Food policy developments in 2015-16 Sustainable Development Goals Global goals that call for local action COP21 Commitments to slow GHG emissions WTO ministerial meeting Pledged to eliminate distortionary trade policiesLow oil & food prices Oil: Lowest in 11 years Food: Falling for 4th year Refugee crisis Over 8 million Syrians food insecure + Slow economic growth Driven by slowdown in emerging economies 2015Climate change El Niño: Ethiopia’s worst drought in 30 years Source: Fan 2016
- 16. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed Historical Modes of food production 12/ 02/ 13 4:33 PMWorld_population_growth_(lin- log_scale).png 1,000×600 pixels !!!!!!!!!!!!hunting/gathering/herding/agriculture agriculture more sophisticated today alternatives?12/02/13 5:00 PMFile:Population curve.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia F i le : P o p u la t i o n c u r v e .s v g F r o m W i k i p e d i a , t h e f r e e e n c y c l o p e d i a P o p u l a t i o n _ c u r v e .s v g !( S V G f i l e , n o m i n a l l y 5 5 0 " 3 2 5 p i x e l s , f i l e s i z e : 1 0 K B ) T h i s i m a g e r e n d e r e d a s P N G i n o t h e r s i z e s : 2 0 0 p x , 5 0 0 p x , 1 0 0 0 p x , 2 0 0 0 p x . T h i s i s a f i l e f r o m t h e W i k i m e d i a C o m m o n s . I n f o r m a t i o n f r o m i t s d e s c r ip t io n p a g e t h e r e i s s h o w n b e l o w . C o m m o n s i s a f r e e l y l i c e n s e d m e d i a f i l e r e p o s i t o r y . Y o u c a n h e l p . D e s c r ip t io n W o r l d h u m a n p o p u l a t i o n ( e s t .) 1 0 , 0 0 0 B C – 2 0 0 0 A D . D a t e S o u r c e o r i g i n a l l y u p l o a d e d t o e n .w i k i p e d i a a s P o p u l a t i o n c u r v e . s v g . T h e d a t a i s f r o m t h e " l o w e r " e s t i m a t e s a t c e n s u s .g o v ( h t t p : / / w w w . c e n s u s .g o v / i p c / w w w / w o r l d h i s .h t m l ) . A u t h o r E l T T h i s w o r k h a s b e e n r e l e a s e d i n t o t h e p u b lic d o m a i n b y i t s a u t h o r , E l T a t t h e E n g l i s h W i k ip e d i a p r o j e c t . T h i s a p p l i e s w o r l d w i d e . I n c a s e t h i s i s n o t l e g a l l y p o s s i b l e : E l T g r a n t s a n y o n e t h e r i g h t t o u s e t h i s w o r k f o r a n y p u r p o s e , w i t h o u t a n y c o n d i t i o n s , u n l e s s s u c h c o n d i t i o n s a r e r e q u i r e d b y l a w . D a t a
- 18. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed Technology is critical for a global food system in sustainable development New food system Efficient Inclusive Climate-smart Sustainable Nutrition- and health- driven Business-friendly Over half of SDGs relate to food security and nutrition Source: Fan 2016
- 20. www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfed Wheat Rust: 117 million hectares protected; >60 million households food secure Asia 1965-85: income up 190%; food security for 1.8 billion Improved Maize: now 75% of land under cereal cultivation Cassava Mosaic Virus & Mealybug: yields up 40%; 29 million fed Re-Greening the Sahel: > 5 million hectares transformed; 3 million additional people fed Argentina Pampas: 22 million hectares sustainable; world leader in soybean production Indo-Gangetic Plain: 1.8 million hectares; income gains $340 per household Bangladesh: 67% reduction in well costs; doubled rice production; 22 million more fed China: Yield increases of 15-31%; 63% of rice is hybrids; 60 million more fed Tilapia Philippines: increased 186%; benefitted 19-23 million consumers Land-tenure reform in China 1978-84: grain up 34%; incomes by 137% CGIAR: Examples of Impact
- 21. www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfed ILRI Offices Main campuses: Nairobi and Addis Ababa Offices in 16 other countries
- 22. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed Animal source foods: 5 of 6 highest value global commodities (total value of 5=USD715 billion) FAOSTAT 2015 (values for 2013) Cow milk has overtaken rice
- 23. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed Huge increases over 2005/7 amounts of cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050 From 2bn−3bn tonnes cereals each year From 664m−1bn tonnes dairy each year From 258m−460m tonnes meat each year More Livestock Products Demand
- 24. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed Connecting the Milk Grid Smallholder dairy in India 1970–1996 • Challenge: • Innovation: • Impact: Author: Kenda Cunningham Dairy demand outpacing supply; smallholders unable to access national dairy markets Creation of a national milk grid and organization of dairy cooperatives to improve production and marketing India becomes a top global dairy producer; incomes double for 9 million direct beneficiaries, 73% of whom are landless farmers NDDB
- 25. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed Conquering the Cattle Plague The global effort to eradicate rinderpest 1950–2001 • Challenge: • Innovation: • Impact: Authors: Peter Roeder and Karl Rich Highly contagious livestock disease killing 95% of the animals it infects as it spreads across Asia and Africa Coordinated global effort to develop improved vaccine, surveillance systems, and protect livestock-based livelihoods Only time an infectious disease has been eradicated since smallpox; 40 million poor livestock keepers benefitted PeterRoeder
- 27. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed NOVEL VACCINE PRODUCTION Infection Immune response to infection Immune to re-infection Candidate vaccine antigens (antigen discovery) Proof-of-concept vaccine trials (antigen delivery) Antibodies and immune T-cells Infection or vaccine trials Both approaches
- 28. www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfed New tools allow us to look in new places for sources of variation – including wildlife Comparative gene network and sequence analysis allows to ask new kinds of questions about genomes – eg “what is different about this (group of) species compared to all other mammals” “traditional” linkage mapping requires crosses – so initial discovery is limited to variants within a species Cow NDama KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSPLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Cow Boran KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Human KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCEREHSTVPWFVKQCIEAVEK Pig KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCERENSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Chicken KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHLVCEHENSTVPQFVRQCIKAVER Salmon KFISRRPSMKTLQEKGIIKDRVFGCHLLALCEREGTTVPKFVRQCVEAVEK
- 29. www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfed How Will We Feed Nine Billion? •Sustained research inputs •De-commoditizing traded food •National food security planning
- 30. www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfed 30 Acknowledgements: •ILRI, IFPRI, CGIAR •Julian Cribb •J. Sachs •Those named on slides Thank you
Editor's Notes
- Negative: CO2 rising
- The reason is that, if we fail, the consequences will affect every person on the planet. Modern wars are often driven by scarcities of food, land and water. Dafour, Rwanda, Eritrea, the Balkans were all destabilized, at root, by squabbles over these resources. Going further back, the French and Russian civil wars both grew out of bread crises. We know that hunger breeds war. The UK Ministry of Defence – which developed this threat map – America’s CIA, the US Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Oslo Peace Research Institute all identify food scarcity as a trigger for revolution, government collapse and wars, possibly even nuclear.
- Riots correlate to rice/cereal price peaks
- Posititve: biological understanding assists food and agriculture, and health for greater numbers
- FAO yearbook fishery and aquaculture 2012: http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3740t.pdf Farmed food fish total value in 2012: $137 billion FAOSTAT accessed 20 October 2015 http://faostat3.fao.org/browse/rankings/commodities_by_regions/E Values in 2013: Cow milk: $198 billion (international $) Rice: $190 billion Indigenous pig meat: $172 billion Indigenous cattle meat: $171 billion Indigenous chicken meat: $137 billion
- Figures from: Alexandratos N and Bruinsma J (2012) World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050. The 2012 revision. ESA Working paper No. 12-03. Agriculture Development Economics Division, FAO, Rome. All types of food are needed – diversity of food Specifically, the world will need: 1 billion tonnes more cereals to 2050 1 billion tonnes dairy products each year 460 million tonnes meat each year
- The Animal Bioscience Program addresses genetics, genomics, epidemiology and diagnostics of livestock species (cattle, pigs, camel, sheep, poultry and goats), some specific diseases (Trypanosomiasis, East Coast Fever, African swine fever, Peste des Petits Ruminant) and some categories of disease particularly Zoonotic diseases and emerging infectious diseases. The bulk of the research is done in Africa and has the potential to impact the rest of the world, supporting the development of strategies for control and eradication of transboundary diseases, enhancing animal productivity and improving food and nutritional security.
- ‘old fashioned’ genome mapping identified variants – slow and costly. But nowhere to go with it New big data approaches allow us to look in new ways. And now we have genome editing to validate and deliver. TIME FOR A NEW ROUND OF FUNCTIONAL GENOMICS TO UNDERSTAND ADAPTATION
- These views developed in this book – highlighting some BIASES