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To Forecast Radical Innovation
don’t listen to “Experts”
Bill Miller, PhD
President, Strategic Radical Innovation LLC
June 20, 2013
Communications of the ACM
March 2001 – Volume 44, Number 3
Special Issue “The Next 1,000 Years”
Paper: “The Future is Ours”, by Leon Kappelman
Page 46
Source of the
Following Famous Quotations
Germs?
Surgery?
Radio?
Nuclear Energy?
Man on the Moon?
The Telephone?
Computers?
Television?
Computers will always
be built with Tubes!
The Apple Mac Intosh
Personal Computer
Personal Computers in Homes?
Maximum Memory Size in PC’s
The End of Paper Documents
The Internet
Note: Metcalfe invented the Ethernet and Local Area Networks
The Impact of Y2K
Technology such as residential
solar, hydroponics, self-publishing, MOOC’s, open
source, and 3D printing has enabled consumers to
increasingly become autonomous producers of
energy, food, information, education, software and
physical goods that can be produced at home and
sold over the Internet and distributed worldwide
without centralized factories
The result will be population migration OUT of cities
The Population will continue to
migrate into Cities?

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Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation