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Examining Polarization in Political Social Media:
A Case of Twitter and the 2011 Canadian Federal Election

ANATOLIY GRUZD
SCHOOL OF INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
DALHOUSIE UNIVERSITY, HALIFAX, NS


Email: gruzd@dal.ca Twitter: @dalprof
Outline

    Background: 2011 Canadian Federal Election
    2011 Election & Social Media
    Political Polarization
    Research Question & Study Design
    Results
    Conclusions & Future Work




Twitter: @dalprof      SocialMediaLab.ca
Background: 2011 Canadian Federal Election



    March 25-26
      The three opposition parties rejected the government's
      proposed budget
      Governor General dissolved the 40th Parliament

    May 2 - Election Day


Twitter: @dalprof          SocialMediaLab.ca
Background: 2011 Canadian Federal Election
       Combination of election period opinion polls




                                           Attribution: Galneweinhaw at en.wikipedia


Twitter: @dalprof      SocialMediaLab.ca
2011 Election & Social Media




Twitter: @dalprof            SocialMediaLab.ca
2011 Election & Social Media:
                    Twitter accounts of Party Leaders




Twitter: @dalprof              SocialMediaLab.ca
2011 Election & Social Media:
     Sample Twitter Communication Network on #elxn41
Top 10 most retweeted
users
1. wikileaks
2. acoyne
3. m_ignatieff
4. RosieBarton
5. JianGhomeshi
6. prjktdemocracy
7. democracycanada
8. can_ada
9. elizabethmay
10. wicary

                                            Source: Twitter, #elxn41, Apr 27-30, 2011

   Twitter: @dalprof    SocialMediaLab.ca
2011 Election & Social Media:
        Political Topics Discussed in the Twitterverse




                                        Source: Twitter, #cdnpoli, Mar 26 - Apr 3, 2011




Twitter: @dalprof        SocialMediaLab.ca
2011 Election & Social Media:
                     Humour in Canadian Politics




Twitter: @dalprof            SocialMediaLab.ca
Political Polarization
Political Polarization: Modern Examples

    Cable news and radio talk shows (Dilliplane, 2011)
    Political blogs (Adamic & Glance, 2005)
    Facebook (Gilbert & Karahalios, 2009; Gaines & Mondak,
    2009)




Twitter: @dalprof        SocialMediaLab.ca
Research Question

    Whether Canadian Twitter users are likely to cluster around
    shared political interests?
         Related work on Twitter (Yardi & boyd, 2010; Conover et.al.,
         2011)




Twitter: @dalprof              SocialMediaLab.ca
Study Design

   Data Collection
        http://Netlytic.org
        A sample of 5,918 messages with
        the “#elxn41” hashtag posted by
        1,492 people between April 28-30
   Social Network Analysis
        ORA
        UCINET



Twitter: @dalprof             SocialMediaLab.ca
Study Design
    Manual Classification of Twitter users in the dataset
         Based on their self-declared political views and affiliations
           -   256 supporters of the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)
           -   221 - New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP)
           -   83 - Conservative Party of Canada (CPC)
           -   48 - Green Party of Canada (GPC)




Twitter: @dalprof                    SocialMediaLab.ca
Study Design
    Manual Classification of Twitter users in the dataset
                             Conservative
                                                   Spam


                      Left

                                                          Unknown &
             Green                                        Undecided



   Bloc                Liberal
                                                     NDP


                     Other
Twitter: @dalprof              SocialMediaLab.ca
Results
    Supporters of the four parties had more connections to people in other
    parties than to supporters of their own party

                                                              Conservative
                                                                Liberal
                                                                 NDP
                                                                 Green




Twitter: @dalprof             SocialMediaLab.ca
Results
      Comparison with 10,000 randomly generated networks
      Ratio of Observed/Expected connections among political parties’
      supporters on Twitter

                     Conservative        Liberal        NDP      Green
Conservative             3.71             0.79          0.34      0.79
   Liberal               0.40             3.43          0.52      1.71
    NDP                  0.40             1.47          1.60      0.69
   Green                 0.26             1.71          0.40      6.99



 Twitter: @dalprof                  SocialMediaLab.ca
Conclusions

    There are some pockets of political polarization on Twitter
         homophily - when people in social networks tend to group around
         similar backgrounds and interests, including shared political
         views.


    Twitter has potential for supporting open cross-ideological
    discourse
         43% of the accounts in the sample did not explicitly stated their
         support for any party or stated support to more than one party


Twitter: @dalprof               SocialMediaLab.ca
Future Work

    “Even though people are likely to be exposed to a variety of
    points of views on Twitter, it is not an effective platform to
    carry on meaningful discussions” (Yardi & boyd, 2010)
    Content analysis of messages that form across ideological
    connections on Twitter




Twitter: @dalprof          SocialMediaLab.ca
Examining Polarization in Political Social Media:
A Case of Twitter and the 2011 Canadian Federal Election

ANATOLIY GRUZD
SCHOOL OF INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
DALHOUSIE UNIVERSITY, HALIFAX, NS




Email: gruzd@dal.ca Twitter: @dalprof

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Examining Polarization in Political Social Media: A Case of Twitter and the 2011 Canadian Federal Election

  • 1. Examining Polarization in Political Social Media: A Case of Twitter and the 2011 Canadian Federal Election ANATOLIY GRUZD SCHOOL OF INFORMATION MANAGEMENT DALHOUSIE UNIVERSITY, HALIFAX, NS Email: gruzd@dal.ca Twitter: @dalprof
  • 2. Outline Background: 2011 Canadian Federal Election 2011 Election & Social Media Political Polarization Research Question & Study Design Results Conclusions & Future Work Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 3. Background: 2011 Canadian Federal Election March 25-26 The three opposition parties rejected the government's proposed budget Governor General dissolved the 40th Parliament May 2 - Election Day Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 4. Background: 2011 Canadian Federal Election Combination of election period opinion polls Attribution: Galneweinhaw at en.wikipedia Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 5. 2011 Election & Social Media Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 6. 2011 Election & Social Media: Twitter accounts of Party Leaders Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 7. 2011 Election & Social Media: Sample Twitter Communication Network on #elxn41 Top 10 most retweeted users 1. wikileaks 2. acoyne 3. m_ignatieff 4. RosieBarton 5. JianGhomeshi 6. prjktdemocracy 7. democracycanada 8. can_ada 9. elizabethmay 10. wicary Source: Twitter, #elxn41, Apr 27-30, 2011 Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 8. 2011 Election & Social Media: Political Topics Discussed in the Twitterverse Source: Twitter, #cdnpoli, Mar 26 - Apr 3, 2011 Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 9. 2011 Election & Social Media: Humour in Canadian Politics Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 11. Political Polarization: Modern Examples Cable news and radio talk shows (Dilliplane, 2011) Political blogs (Adamic & Glance, 2005) Facebook (Gilbert & Karahalios, 2009; Gaines & Mondak, 2009) Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 12. Research Question Whether Canadian Twitter users are likely to cluster around shared political interests? Related work on Twitter (Yardi & boyd, 2010; Conover et.al., 2011) Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 13. Study Design Data Collection http://Netlytic.org A sample of 5,918 messages with the “#elxn41” hashtag posted by 1,492 people between April 28-30 Social Network Analysis ORA UCINET Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 14. Study Design Manual Classification of Twitter users in the dataset Based on their self-declared political views and affiliations - 256 supporters of the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) - 221 - New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP) - 83 - Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) - 48 - Green Party of Canada (GPC) Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 15. Study Design Manual Classification of Twitter users in the dataset Conservative Spam Left Unknown & Green Undecided Bloc Liberal NDP Other Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 16. Results Supporters of the four parties had more connections to people in other parties than to supporters of their own party Conservative Liberal NDP Green Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 17. Results Comparison with 10,000 randomly generated networks Ratio of Observed/Expected connections among political parties’ supporters on Twitter Conservative Liberal NDP Green Conservative 3.71 0.79 0.34 0.79 Liberal 0.40 3.43 0.52 1.71 NDP 0.40 1.47 1.60 0.69 Green 0.26 1.71 0.40 6.99 Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 18. Conclusions There are some pockets of political polarization on Twitter homophily - when people in social networks tend to group around similar backgrounds and interests, including shared political views. Twitter has potential for supporting open cross-ideological discourse 43% of the accounts in the sample did not explicitly stated their support for any party or stated support to more than one party Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 19. Future Work “Even though people are likely to be exposed to a variety of points of views on Twitter, it is not an effective platform to carry on meaningful discussions” (Yardi & boyd, 2010) Content analysis of messages that form across ideological connections on Twitter Twitter: @dalprof SocialMediaLab.ca
  • 20. Examining Polarization in Political Social Media: A Case of Twitter and the 2011 Canadian Federal Election ANATOLIY GRUZD SCHOOL OF INFORMATION MANAGEMENT DALHOUSIE UNIVERSITY, HALIFAX, NS Email: gruzd@dal.ca Twitter: @dalprof