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Anatoliy Gruzd, PhD.
@Gruzd
Canada Research Chair,
Director of Research
Socialmedialab.ca
Co-Directors
The Lab & The People
Socialmedialab.ca
The lab studies how social media is changing
the way people communicate, share information and
form communities online, and how these changes
impact society.
A Multidisciplinary Research
Laboratory at
Toronto Metropolitan University in
Toronto, Canada
ResearchFoci
The Lab & The People
Facebook posts mentioning Ukraine (in three languages)
across public pages, groups and verified accounts
Source: CrowdTangle
Social media use in Ukraine and Russia
Source:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1308258/
social-media-penetration-ukraine-russia
Source: Statista
Source: https://euvsdisinfo.eu/trolling-for-a-victory-steeped-in-blood-and-hunger
Source: https://euvsdisinfo.eu/trolling-for-a-victory-steeped-in-blood-and-hunger
Agenda
1. Russia-Ukraine
ConflictMisinfo Research Portal
2. The Reach of Russian
Propaganda and Disinformation
Socialmedialab.ca
NAME OR LOGO 10
The Russia-Ukraine
ConflictMisinfo
Research Portal
https://ConflictMisinfo.org
We launched the Portal to study the
prevalence and spread of online
misinformation and disinformation
about the Russia-Ukraine war
ConflictMisinfo.org
• Let users see the latest
debunked claims from around
the world in one place
• See what types of claims are
currently circulating online
• Discover when there are spikes
in the volume of debunked
claims
• Read up on each debunked
claim
The Russia-Ukraine
ConflictMisinfo
Dashboard
Step 2. We then automatically
translate all non-English claims
into English.
Step 1. Daily, we use a custom
Python script to collect all fact-
check claims that include
keywords related to the war from
Google Fact Check Tools API.
The Dashboard visualizes claims
reviewed by ~ 200 fact-checking
organizations
The Russia-Ukraine
ConflictMisinfo
Dashboard
NAME OR LOGO
○ FALSE CLAIM: A viral video
claims to show US
paratroopers landing in
Ukraine (shared on March 7,
2022)
○ The video does show
paratroopers from the US, but
it is from drills in North
Carolina.
13
Fact-check: https://fullfact.org/online/us-paratrooper-ukraine-video/
NAME OR LOGO
○ FALSE CLAIM: Viral video shows "crisis actors"
portraying dead Ukrainian victims of a Russian attack
laid out in body bags (shared on March 10, 2022)
○ The video is from a news broadcast of a climate protest
held in Vienna (Austria).
14
Fact-check: https://www.factcheck.org/2022/03/video-shows-climate-protest-in-austria-not-crisis-actors-in-ukraine
NAME OR LOGO
○ FALSE CLAIM: A deepfake video of the “Ukrainian president” ordering his soldiers to surrender the fight
against Russia (shared on March 16, 2022)
15
Fact-check: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/16/1087062648/deepfake-video-zelenskyy-experts-war-manipulation-ukraine-russia
NAME OR LOGO
Russia-Ukraine ConflictMisinfo Geo-Map: Sample Claims
16
https://conflictmisinfo.org
NAME OR LOGO
Seven prevalent
claims pushed by
the Kremlin and pro-
Kremlin accounts
1. "Ukrainian nationalism is a neo-Nazi movement, so one of
the goals of Russia’s 'Special Operation' in Ukraine is to
'demilitarize and denazify' Ukraine"
2. "Russia is defending ethnic Russians in Ukraine"
3. "The Kyiv regime is spreading doctored photos and videos
of supposed atrocities by Russian troops as part of staged
production and provocation for Western media"
4. "Ukrainian government officials are the aggressor in the
Russia-Ukraine conflict"
5. “The West pushed Ukraine toward a conflict with Russia"
6. "Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has surrounded
Russia with military bases and broken their promise to not
offer NATO membership to former USSR republics, like
Ukraine"
7. "The United States has a network of biological weapons
labs in Ukraine"
17
https://conflictmisinfo.org
Agenda
1. Russia-Ukraine
ConflictMisinfo Research Portal
2. The Reach of Russian
Propaganda and Disinformation
Socialmedialab.ca
NAME OR LOGO
When using social media
platforms / messaging apps,
have you encountered any of
the following claims about the
Russia-Ukraine war?
○ About half (51%) of Canadians reported
encountering at least one pro-Kremlin claim
on social media.
○ This suggests that concerns about the
prevalence and reach of Russian propaganda
and disinformation in Canada is warranted.
19
24%
27%
27%
28%
29%
31%
35%
76%
73%
73%
72%
71%
69%
65%
7. The United States has a network of
biological weapons labs in Ukraine
6. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO
has surrounded Russia with military bases
and broken their promise to not offer…
5. The West pushed Ukraine toward a
conflict with Russia
4. Ukrainian government officials are the
aggressor in the Russia-Ukraine conflict
3. The Kyiv regime is spreading doctored
photos and videos of supposed atrocities
by Russian troops as part of staged…
2. Russia is defending ethnic Russians in
Ukraine
1. Ukrainian nationalism is a neo-Nazi
movement, so one of the goals of Russia’s
'Special Operation' in Ukraine is to…
Yes No
Source: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20277855
NAME OR LOGO
How much do you believe in
the following claims about
the Russia-Ukraine war?
○ The relatively widespread difference
between the number of Canadians who
believe in one claim over another
suggests that some Russian
disinformation claims resonated more
with Canadians than others.
○ The claim about NATO expansion is the
one that gained the most traction with
the Canadian public.
20
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
7%
5%
5%
5%
4%
5%
5%
16%
15%
15%
15%
14%
13%
12%
22%
17%
17%
14%
16%
13%
11%
51%
59%
60%
62%
62%
66%
69%
6. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has
surrounded Russia with military bases and broken
their promise to not offer NATO membership to…
3. The Kyiv regime is spreading doctored photos
and videos of supposed atrocities by Russian troops
as part of staged production and provocation for…
7. The United States has a network of biological
weapons labs in Ukraine
5. The West pushed Ukraine toward a conflict with
Russia
2. Russia is defending ethnic Russians in Ukraine
1. Ukrainian nationalism is a neo-Nazi movement,
so one of the goals of Russia’s 'Special Operation' in
Ukraine is to 'demilitarize and denazify' Ukraine
4. Ukrainian government officials are the aggressor
in the Russia-Ukraine conflict
A great deal A lot A moderate amount A little Not at all
Source: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20277855
NAME OR LOGO
Political Ideology and Belief
in Pro-Kremlin Propaganda
○ Right-leaning Canadians are more
likely to believe at least to some extent
in all seven pro-Kremlin claims, relative
to respondents who are ideologically
left-leaning or mixed.
○ For example, 49% of right-leaning
Canadians believe to some extent that
“Ukrainian government officials are the
aggressor” (Claim #4), while only 20%
of left-leaning Canadians believe this
claim.
21
23%
27%
30%
20%
27%
43%
31%
46%
49%
52%
44%
49%
55%
50%
50%
57%
64%
49%
58%
64%
58%
1. "Ukrainian nationalism is a neo-Nazi movement,
so one of the goals of Russia’s 'Special Operation' in
Ukraine is to 'demilitarize and denazify' Ukraine"
2. "Russia is defending ethnic Russians in Ukraine"
3. "The Kyiv regime is spreading doctored photos
and videos of supposed atrocities by Russian troops
as part of staged production and provocation for…
4. "Ukrainian government officials are the aggressor
in the Russia-Ukraine conflict"
5. "The West pushed Ukraine toward a conflict with
Russia"
6. "Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has
surrounded Russia with military bases and broken
their promise to not offer NATO membership to…
7. "The United States has a network of biological
weapons labs in Ukraine"
Believe to some extent that ...
Left-leaning (n=823) Mixed (n=548) Right-leaning (n=129)
Source: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20277855
NAME OR LOGO
54%
57%
66%
70%
57%
41% 42%
69%
58%
23%
Print
(newspapers,
magazines)
Radio
(broadcast,
satellite)
TV (broadcast,
cable)
Online (news
website or
mobile app)
Social media /
messaging
apps
Claim: "Ukrainian nationalism is a neo-Nazi
movement ..."
Believe to some extent (n=507) Not at all (n=993)
Preferred News Source and
Belief in Pro-Kremlin Propaganda
○ The percentage of those who preferred either
print, radio, TV, online (news website or mobile
app), or social media as their news source
○ The most striking difference between the two
groups is that those who believe in one or
more of the pro-Kremlin claims are more likely
to turn to social media as a news source about
the war than those who do not believe.
○ This finding suggests that there is a positive
correlation between using social media for
news consumption about the Russia-Ukraine
war and one’s tendency to believe in the
Kremlin’s propaganda.
22
Source: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20277855
Conclusions
1. Russia-Ukraine
ConflictMisinfo Research Portal
2. The Reach of Russian
Propaganda and Disinformation
Socialmedialab.ca
Conclusions
1. Russia-Ukraine
ConflictMisinfo Research Portal
Socialmedialab.ca
Fact Checking works but …
 Much of what is driving (dis-) misinformation is politics: What
do you do when government, politicians or leaders spread
misinformation?
 Fact-checking is not a scalable solution
 Fact-checking can be used to spread/reinforce disinformation
 Not everything can be fact-checked
Conclusions
Socialmedialab.ca
 Our research provides evidence that the Kremlin’s
disinformation is reaching more Canadians than one would
expect.
 Individuals who hold right-leaning ideology are more likely to
believe in pro-Kremlin propaganda overall as compared to
those who hold mixed or left-leaning views.
 Those who believe in pro-Kremlin propaganda are more likely
to rely on social media for news about the war than those
who do not believe.
2. The Reach of Russian
Propaganda and Disinformation
The Fog of War: Examining the Spread of
Dis- & Misinformation in the Russia-Ukraine
War on Social Media
Anatoliy Gruzd, PhD.
@Gruzd
Canada Research Chair,
Director of Research
Socialmedialab.ca

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The Fog of War: Examining the Spread of Dis- & Misinformation in the Russia-Ukraine War on Social Media

  • 1. Anatoliy Gruzd, PhD. @Gruzd Canada Research Chair, Director of Research Socialmedialab.ca
  • 2. Co-Directors The Lab & The People Socialmedialab.ca The lab studies how social media is changing the way people communicate, share information and form communities online, and how these changes impact society. A Multidisciplinary Research Laboratory at Toronto Metropolitan University in Toronto, Canada
  • 4. Facebook posts mentioning Ukraine (in three languages) across public pages, groups and verified accounts Source: CrowdTangle
  • 5. Social media use in Ukraine and Russia Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1308258/ social-media-penetration-ukraine-russia Source: Statista
  • 8. Agenda 1. Russia-Ukraine ConflictMisinfo Research Portal 2. The Reach of Russian Propaganda and Disinformation Socialmedialab.ca
  • 9. NAME OR LOGO 10 The Russia-Ukraine ConflictMisinfo Research Portal https://ConflictMisinfo.org We launched the Portal to study the prevalence and spread of online misinformation and disinformation about the Russia-Ukraine war ConflictMisinfo.org
  • 10. • Let users see the latest debunked claims from around the world in one place • See what types of claims are currently circulating online • Discover when there are spikes in the volume of debunked claims • Read up on each debunked claim The Russia-Ukraine ConflictMisinfo Dashboard
  • 11. Step 2. We then automatically translate all non-English claims into English. Step 1. Daily, we use a custom Python script to collect all fact- check claims that include keywords related to the war from Google Fact Check Tools API. The Dashboard visualizes claims reviewed by ~ 200 fact-checking organizations The Russia-Ukraine ConflictMisinfo Dashboard
  • 12. NAME OR LOGO ○ FALSE CLAIM: A viral video claims to show US paratroopers landing in Ukraine (shared on March 7, 2022) ○ The video does show paratroopers from the US, but it is from drills in North Carolina. 13 Fact-check: https://fullfact.org/online/us-paratrooper-ukraine-video/
  • 13. NAME OR LOGO ○ FALSE CLAIM: Viral video shows "crisis actors" portraying dead Ukrainian victims of a Russian attack laid out in body bags (shared on March 10, 2022) ○ The video is from a news broadcast of a climate protest held in Vienna (Austria). 14 Fact-check: https://www.factcheck.org/2022/03/video-shows-climate-protest-in-austria-not-crisis-actors-in-ukraine
  • 14. NAME OR LOGO ○ FALSE CLAIM: A deepfake video of the “Ukrainian president” ordering his soldiers to surrender the fight against Russia (shared on March 16, 2022) 15 Fact-check: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/16/1087062648/deepfake-video-zelenskyy-experts-war-manipulation-ukraine-russia
  • 15. NAME OR LOGO Russia-Ukraine ConflictMisinfo Geo-Map: Sample Claims 16 https://conflictmisinfo.org
  • 16. NAME OR LOGO Seven prevalent claims pushed by the Kremlin and pro- Kremlin accounts 1. "Ukrainian nationalism is a neo-Nazi movement, so one of the goals of Russia’s 'Special Operation' in Ukraine is to 'demilitarize and denazify' Ukraine" 2. "Russia is defending ethnic Russians in Ukraine" 3. "The Kyiv regime is spreading doctored photos and videos of supposed atrocities by Russian troops as part of staged production and provocation for Western media" 4. "Ukrainian government officials are the aggressor in the Russia-Ukraine conflict" 5. “The West pushed Ukraine toward a conflict with Russia" 6. "Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has surrounded Russia with military bases and broken their promise to not offer NATO membership to former USSR republics, like Ukraine" 7. "The United States has a network of biological weapons labs in Ukraine" 17 https://conflictmisinfo.org
  • 17. Agenda 1. Russia-Ukraine ConflictMisinfo Research Portal 2. The Reach of Russian Propaganda and Disinformation Socialmedialab.ca
  • 18. NAME OR LOGO When using social media platforms / messaging apps, have you encountered any of the following claims about the Russia-Ukraine war? ○ About half (51%) of Canadians reported encountering at least one pro-Kremlin claim on social media. ○ This suggests that concerns about the prevalence and reach of Russian propaganda and disinformation in Canada is warranted. 19 24% 27% 27% 28% 29% 31% 35% 76% 73% 73% 72% 71% 69% 65% 7. The United States has a network of biological weapons labs in Ukraine 6. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has surrounded Russia with military bases and broken their promise to not offer… 5. The West pushed Ukraine toward a conflict with Russia 4. Ukrainian government officials are the aggressor in the Russia-Ukraine conflict 3. The Kyiv regime is spreading doctored photos and videos of supposed atrocities by Russian troops as part of staged… 2. Russia is defending ethnic Russians in Ukraine 1. Ukrainian nationalism is a neo-Nazi movement, so one of the goals of Russia’s 'Special Operation' in Ukraine is to… Yes No Source: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20277855
  • 19. NAME OR LOGO How much do you believe in the following claims about the Russia-Ukraine war? ○ The relatively widespread difference between the number of Canadians who believe in one claim over another suggests that some Russian disinformation claims resonated more with Canadians than others. ○ The claim about NATO expansion is the one that gained the most traction with the Canadian public. 20 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 16% 15% 15% 15% 14% 13% 12% 22% 17% 17% 14% 16% 13% 11% 51% 59% 60% 62% 62% 66% 69% 6. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has surrounded Russia with military bases and broken their promise to not offer NATO membership to… 3. The Kyiv regime is spreading doctored photos and videos of supposed atrocities by Russian troops as part of staged production and provocation for… 7. The United States has a network of biological weapons labs in Ukraine 5. The West pushed Ukraine toward a conflict with Russia 2. Russia is defending ethnic Russians in Ukraine 1. Ukrainian nationalism is a neo-Nazi movement, so one of the goals of Russia’s 'Special Operation' in Ukraine is to 'demilitarize and denazify' Ukraine 4. Ukrainian government officials are the aggressor in the Russia-Ukraine conflict A great deal A lot A moderate amount A little Not at all Source: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20277855
  • 20. NAME OR LOGO Political Ideology and Belief in Pro-Kremlin Propaganda ○ Right-leaning Canadians are more likely to believe at least to some extent in all seven pro-Kremlin claims, relative to respondents who are ideologically left-leaning or mixed. ○ For example, 49% of right-leaning Canadians believe to some extent that “Ukrainian government officials are the aggressor” (Claim #4), while only 20% of left-leaning Canadians believe this claim. 21 23% 27% 30% 20% 27% 43% 31% 46% 49% 52% 44% 49% 55% 50% 50% 57% 64% 49% 58% 64% 58% 1. "Ukrainian nationalism is a neo-Nazi movement, so one of the goals of Russia’s 'Special Operation' in Ukraine is to 'demilitarize and denazify' Ukraine" 2. "Russia is defending ethnic Russians in Ukraine" 3. "The Kyiv regime is spreading doctored photos and videos of supposed atrocities by Russian troops as part of staged production and provocation for… 4. "Ukrainian government officials are the aggressor in the Russia-Ukraine conflict" 5. "The West pushed Ukraine toward a conflict with Russia" 6. "Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has surrounded Russia with military bases and broken their promise to not offer NATO membership to… 7. "The United States has a network of biological weapons labs in Ukraine" Believe to some extent that ... Left-leaning (n=823) Mixed (n=548) Right-leaning (n=129) Source: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20277855
  • 21. NAME OR LOGO 54% 57% 66% 70% 57% 41% 42% 69% 58% 23% Print (newspapers, magazines) Radio (broadcast, satellite) TV (broadcast, cable) Online (news website or mobile app) Social media / messaging apps Claim: "Ukrainian nationalism is a neo-Nazi movement ..." Believe to some extent (n=507) Not at all (n=993) Preferred News Source and Belief in Pro-Kremlin Propaganda ○ The percentage of those who preferred either print, radio, TV, online (news website or mobile app), or social media as their news source ○ The most striking difference between the two groups is that those who believe in one or more of the pro-Kremlin claims are more likely to turn to social media as a news source about the war than those who do not believe. ○ This finding suggests that there is a positive correlation between using social media for news consumption about the Russia-Ukraine war and one’s tendency to believe in the Kremlin’s propaganda. 22 Source: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20277855
  • 22. Conclusions 1. Russia-Ukraine ConflictMisinfo Research Portal 2. The Reach of Russian Propaganda and Disinformation Socialmedialab.ca
  • 23. Conclusions 1. Russia-Ukraine ConflictMisinfo Research Portal Socialmedialab.ca Fact Checking works but …  Much of what is driving (dis-) misinformation is politics: What do you do when government, politicians or leaders spread misinformation?  Fact-checking is not a scalable solution  Fact-checking can be used to spread/reinforce disinformation  Not everything can be fact-checked
  • 24. Conclusions Socialmedialab.ca  Our research provides evidence that the Kremlin’s disinformation is reaching more Canadians than one would expect.  Individuals who hold right-leaning ideology are more likely to believe in pro-Kremlin propaganda overall as compared to those who hold mixed or left-leaning views.  Those who believe in pro-Kremlin propaganda are more likely to rely on social media for news about the war than those who do not believe. 2. The Reach of Russian Propaganda and Disinformation
  • 25. The Fog of War: Examining the Spread of Dis- & Misinformation in the Russia-Ukraine War on Social Media Anatoliy Gruzd, PhD. @Gruzd Canada Research Chair, Director of Research Socialmedialab.ca