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Predicting what gets ‘Likes’ on Facebook:
A case study of BlogTO
Philip Mai (@phmai)
Director, Business & Communications
Social Media Lab
Ryerson University
Priya Kumar (@link_priya)
Postdoctoral Fellow
Social Media Lab
Ryerson University
About BlogTO
“Toronto's source for local
news and culture,
restaurant reviews, event
listings and the best of
the city.”
Facebook Page
(est. in 2004)
~300K Followers
@SMLabTO 2
About the
@SMLabTO 3
Research Questions
• What kinds of BlogTO posts get more likes on Facebook?
1. Are there certain types of BlogTO content (videos, photos, links,
events, status updates) that are more engaging for readers?
2. Are there linguistic cues that can predict the ‘likeability’ of
BlogTO’s posted content on Facebook?
@SMLabTO 4
Methodological Toolkit
Data
Collection:
Netlytic
• Social media data collector
• Text and network analyzer
Text
Analysis:
LIWC
• Automated text analysis (LIWC –
Linguistic Inquiry & Word Count )
Statistical
Analysis:
SPSS
• Statistical software
@SMLabTO 5
- a social media analytics platform
designed for researchers to
collect, analyze and visualize
publicly available data from…
• Twitter, Youtube, Instagram,
Facebook, blogs, etc…
• Used by thousands of
students & scholars
Netlytic.org
@SMLabTO 6
Visualize & analyze social networks
Discover popular topicsCollect data from social media
Find & explore emerging
themes of discussions
@SMLabTO 7
Data Collection &
Analysis
Netlytic.org
Daily Posting Frequency
BlogTO Dataset
April 3 – May 3 2017
11,785 Unique Posters
17,748 Posts +
Replies
@SMLabTO 8
Sample Facebook Data viewed in Excel
pubdate author post type like_count
4/24/2017
17:46:00
blogTO Toronto looking like a Unicorn Frappuccino - Photo by
alexandramack22
photo 6431
4/4/2017
18:31:00
blogTO Some of Toronto's favourite food vendors are now in
one place
video 5701
4/7/2017
18:31:00
blogTO Toronto has a new spot for epic ice cream treats video 5225
4/10/2017
14:16:41
blogTO Mark your calendars link 4894
4/15/2017
18:31:00
blogTO Toronto just got a secret superhero and villain themed
restaurant
video 4378
4/8/2017
8:31:00
blogTO Good morning! - Photo by zzoomed photo 4066
@SMLabTO 9
BlogTO
Dataset
April 3 – May 3 2017
11,785 Unique Posters
17,748 Posts +
Replies
“Who Replies To Whom” Network
(no reciprocal ties)
@SMLabTO 10
Data Collection
Netlytic.org
BlogTO Dataset
April 3 – May 3 2017
11,785 Unique Posters
17,748 Posts +
Replies
641 BlogTO
Posts Focus of
Text Analysis
@SMLabTO 11
Collected Data & Metadata as Captured by Netlytic
Sample Post
post Toronto looking like a
Unicorn Frappuccino -
Photo by alexandramack22
date 4/24/2017 17:46:00
author blogTO
type photo
like_count 6431
link https://www.facebook.com/blogt
o/posts/10154396883870009 @SMLabTO 12
Methodological Toolkit
Data
Collection:
Netlytic
• Social media data collector
• Text and network analyzer
Text
Analysis:
LIWC
• Automated text analysis (LIWC –
Linguistic Inquiry & Word Count )
Statistical
Analysis:
SPSS
• Statistical software
@SMLabTO 13
The Power of Words
A lot has been written about the power of words to drive
change, acquire customers, and persuade crowds …
What is the role of language in driving
engagement and traffic to local news sites?
@SMLabTO 14
Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC)
LIWC Dictionary Contains 90 Word Categories
Such As:
• Linguistic dimensions (articles, verbs)
• Psychological constructs (affect, cognition)
• Personal concerns (work, leisure)
• Informal language (swear words) online
speech
• Punctuation (periods commas)
LIWC
Sample LIWC Categories (90 in total)
• “Risk” - words that are perceived as
threatening
• “Power” - words that signify strength or
control
• “Leisure” - words that refer to activities
not associated with work
@SMLabTO 15
Text Analysis with LIWC
BlogTO Facebook Posts collected by
Netlytic
LIWC Output: posts & corresponding scores
for 90 categories
post type
Toronto looking like a Unicorn
Frappuccino - Photo by
alexandramack22
photo
Some of Toronto's favourite food
vendors are now in one place
video
Toronto has a new spot for epic ice
cream treats
video
Mark your calendars link
Toronto just got a secret superhero
and villain themed restaurant
video
Good morning! - Photo by zzoomed photo
@SMLabTO 16
LIWC Categories
Sample Post
post Toronto looking like a Unicorn
Frappuccino - Photo by
alexandramack22
@SMLabTO 17
LIWC Categories
Sample Post
post Toronto looking like a Unicorn
Frappuccino - Photo by
alexandramack22
LIWC Category Count Score %
# of Words 9 100%
Function
3 33%
Prep
2 22%
Percept
2 22%
See
2 22%
Article
1 11%
Verb
1 11%
Compare
1 11%
Used in the
analysis
@SMLabTO 18
Methodological Toolkit
Data
Collection:
Netlytic
• Social media data collector
• Text and network analyzer
Text
Analysis:
LIWC
• Automated text analysis (LIWC –
Linguistic Inquiry & Word Count )
Statistical
Analysis:
SPSS
• Statistical software
@SMLabTO 19
Using SPSS to Predict BlogTO Facebook Likes
We tested post type( videos, photo, link, etc…)+ 90 LIWC dictionary
categories as possible predictors of #Likes
FB Like
Count
Post Type
Social Processes
Informal Language
Function Words
Comparisons
Discrepancy
Analytic Thinking
Affiliation
Interrogatives
Netspeak
buddy, coworker, mom …
video, photo, link, event, share
OK, ummm, blah …
pronouns, prepositions, articles …
greater, best, more than …
should, would, could …
logical and hierarchical thinking
e.g., buddy, coworker, mom, brother…
how, when, what, where, why …
thx, btw, brb…
@SMLabTO 20
Result: Using SPSS to Predict BlogTO Facebook Likes
10 (of 90) LIWC Dictionary Categories were found to be Statistically
Significant (p<.05)
FB Like
Count
Post Type = Video (8x more influential than the next category)
Social Processes
Informal Language
Function Words
Comparisons
Discrepancy
Analytic Thinking
Affiliation
Interrogatives
Netspeak
R2 = 0.24
@SMLabTO 21
Example of Facebook Post with Video
@SMLabTO 22
Example of Facebook Post with High
‘Social Processes’ (ex: buddy, coworker, mom)
Additional sample FB posts
in this category
1. “Show mom some love”
2. “Attention parents!”
3. “For your next date night”
@SMLabTO 23
Example of Facebook Post with High
‘Informal Language’ (ex: OK, ummm, blah)
Additional sample FB posts
in this category
1. “Yes, yes, yes!”
2. “Try ‘em all”
3. “FYI”
@SMLabTO 24
Example of Facebook Post with High
‘Netspeak’ (ex: thx, btw, brb)
Additional sample FB posts
in this category
1. “Yup”
2. “Hmmm”
3. “Awww”
@SMLabTO 25
Implications
Be …
Engage with your audience through posts & replies (not just shares)
Other studies showed that it’ll help to build a community and not just attract followers
Conversational
Use more videos! Photos are so last year?Visual
Embrace informal language but avoid netspeak;Informal
Use posts that project to future or direct to activity
e.g., “this should be good”, “this is a must-see”
Future-
forward
@SMLaTO 26
Future Research
1
Analyze the content
of photos, videos
and blogs shared on
Facebook (not just
Facebook textual
posts)
2
Analyze who is
engaging with the
posts
3
Account for the
temporality and
seasonality of the
Toronto–scene
@SMLabTO 27
Predicting what gets ‘Likes’ on Facebook:
A case study of BlogTO
Philip Mai (@phmai)
Director, Business & Communications
Social Media Lab
Ryerson University
Priya Kumar (@link_priya)
Postdoctoral Fellow
Social Media Lab
Ryerson University

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Predicting what gets ‘Likes’ on Facebook: case study of BlogTO

  • 1. Predicting what gets ‘Likes’ on Facebook: A case study of BlogTO Philip Mai (@phmai) Director, Business & Communications Social Media Lab Ryerson University Priya Kumar (@link_priya) Postdoctoral Fellow Social Media Lab Ryerson University
  • 2. About BlogTO “Toronto's source for local news and culture, restaurant reviews, event listings and the best of the city.” Facebook Page (est. in 2004) ~300K Followers @SMLabTO 2
  • 4. Research Questions • What kinds of BlogTO posts get more likes on Facebook? 1. Are there certain types of BlogTO content (videos, photos, links, events, status updates) that are more engaging for readers? 2. Are there linguistic cues that can predict the ‘likeability’ of BlogTO’s posted content on Facebook? @SMLabTO 4
  • 5. Methodological Toolkit Data Collection: Netlytic • Social media data collector • Text and network analyzer Text Analysis: LIWC • Automated text analysis (LIWC – Linguistic Inquiry & Word Count ) Statistical Analysis: SPSS • Statistical software @SMLabTO 5
  • 6. - a social media analytics platform designed for researchers to collect, analyze and visualize publicly available data from… • Twitter, Youtube, Instagram, Facebook, blogs, etc… • Used by thousands of students & scholars Netlytic.org @SMLabTO 6
  • 7. Visualize & analyze social networks Discover popular topicsCollect data from social media Find & explore emerging themes of discussions @SMLabTO 7 Data Collection & Analysis Netlytic.org
  • 8. Daily Posting Frequency BlogTO Dataset April 3 – May 3 2017 11,785 Unique Posters 17,748 Posts + Replies @SMLabTO 8
  • 9. Sample Facebook Data viewed in Excel pubdate author post type like_count 4/24/2017 17:46:00 blogTO Toronto looking like a Unicorn Frappuccino - Photo by alexandramack22 photo 6431 4/4/2017 18:31:00 blogTO Some of Toronto's favourite food vendors are now in one place video 5701 4/7/2017 18:31:00 blogTO Toronto has a new spot for epic ice cream treats video 5225 4/10/2017 14:16:41 blogTO Mark your calendars link 4894 4/15/2017 18:31:00 blogTO Toronto just got a secret superhero and villain themed restaurant video 4378 4/8/2017 8:31:00 blogTO Good morning! - Photo by zzoomed photo 4066 @SMLabTO 9
  • 10. BlogTO Dataset April 3 – May 3 2017 11,785 Unique Posters 17,748 Posts + Replies “Who Replies To Whom” Network (no reciprocal ties) @SMLabTO 10 Data Collection Netlytic.org
  • 11. BlogTO Dataset April 3 – May 3 2017 11,785 Unique Posters 17,748 Posts + Replies 641 BlogTO Posts Focus of Text Analysis @SMLabTO 11
  • 12. Collected Data & Metadata as Captured by Netlytic Sample Post post Toronto looking like a Unicorn Frappuccino - Photo by alexandramack22 date 4/24/2017 17:46:00 author blogTO type photo like_count 6431 link https://www.facebook.com/blogt o/posts/10154396883870009 @SMLabTO 12
  • 13. Methodological Toolkit Data Collection: Netlytic • Social media data collector • Text and network analyzer Text Analysis: LIWC • Automated text analysis (LIWC – Linguistic Inquiry & Word Count ) Statistical Analysis: SPSS • Statistical software @SMLabTO 13
  • 14. The Power of Words A lot has been written about the power of words to drive change, acquire customers, and persuade crowds … What is the role of language in driving engagement and traffic to local news sites? @SMLabTO 14
  • 15. Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) LIWC Dictionary Contains 90 Word Categories Such As: • Linguistic dimensions (articles, verbs) • Psychological constructs (affect, cognition) • Personal concerns (work, leisure) • Informal language (swear words) online speech • Punctuation (periods commas) LIWC Sample LIWC Categories (90 in total) • “Risk” - words that are perceived as threatening • “Power” - words that signify strength or control • “Leisure” - words that refer to activities not associated with work @SMLabTO 15
  • 16. Text Analysis with LIWC BlogTO Facebook Posts collected by Netlytic LIWC Output: posts & corresponding scores for 90 categories post type Toronto looking like a Unicorn Frappuccino - Photo by alexandramack22 photo Some of Toronto's favourite food vendors are now in one place video Toronto has a new spot for epic ice cream treats video Mark your calendars link Toronto just got a secret superhero and villain themed restaurant video Good morning! - Photo by zzoomed photo @SMLabTO 16
  • 17. LIWC Categories Sample Post post Toronto looking like a Unicorn Frappuccino - Photo by alexandramack22 @SMLabTO 17
  • 18. LIWC Categories Sample Post post Toronto looking like a Unicorn Frappuccino - Photo by alexandramack22 LIWC Category Count Score % # of Words 9 100% Function 3 33% Prep 2 22% Percept 2 22% See 2 22% Article 1 11% Verb 1 11% Compare 1 11% Used in the analysis @SMLabTO 18
  • 19. Methodological Toolkit Data Collection: Netlytic • Social media data collector • Text and network analyzer Text Analysis: LIWC • Automated text analysis (LIWC – Linguistic Inquiry & Word Count ) Statistical Analysis: SPSS • Statistical software @SMLabTO 19
  • 20. Using SPSS to Predict BlogTO Facebook Likes We tested post type( videos, photo, link, etc…)+ 90 LIWC dictionary categories as possible predictors of #Likes FB Like Count Post Type Social Processes Informal Language Function Words Comparisons Discrepancy Analytic Thinking Affiliation Interrogatives Netspeak buddy, coworker, mom … video, photo, link, event, share OK, ummm, blah … pronouns, prepositions, articles … greater, best, more than … should, would, could … logical and hierarchical thinking e.g., buddy, coworker, mom, brother… how, when, what, where, why … thx, btw, brb… @SMLabTO 20
  • 21. Result: Using SPSS to Predict BlogTO Facebook Likes 10 (of 90) LIWC Dictionary Categories were found to be Statistically Significant (p<.05) FB Like Count Post Type = Video (8x more influential than the next category) Social Processes Informal Language Function Words Comparisons Discrepancy Analytic Thinking Affiliation Interrogatives Netspeak R2 = 0.24 @SMLabTO 21
  • 22. Example of Facebook Post with Video @SMLabTO 22
  • 23. Example of Facebook Post with High ‘Social Processes’ (ex: buddy, coworker, mom) Additional sample FB posts in this category 1. “Show mom some love” 2. “Attention parents!” 3. “For your next date night” @SMLabTO 23
  • 24. Example of Facebook Post with High ‘Informal Language’ (ex: OK, ummm, blah) Additional sample FB posts in this category 1. “Yes, yes, yes!” 2. “Try ‘em all” 3. “FYI” @SMLabTO 24
  • 25. Example of Facebook Post with High ‘Netspeak’ (ex: thx, btw, brb) Additional sample FB posts in this category 1. “Yup” 2. “Hmmm” 3. “Awww” @SMLabTO 25
  • 26. Implications Be … Engage with your audience through posts & replies (not just shares) Other studies showed that it’ll help to build a community and not just attract followers Conversational Use more videos! Photos are so last year?Visual Embrace informal language but avoid netspeak;Informal Use posts that project to future or direct to activity e.g., “this should be good”, “this is a must-see” Future- forward @SMLaTO 26
  • 27. Future Research 1 Analyze the content of photos, videos and blogs shared on Facebook (not just Facebook textual posts) 2 Analyze who is engaging with the posts 3 Account for the temporality and seasonality of the Toronto–scene @SMLabTO 27
  • 28. Predicting what gets ‘Likes’ on Facebook: A case study of BlogTO Philip Mai (@phmai) Director, Business & Communications Social Media Lab Ryerson University Priya Kumar (@link_priya) Postdoctoral Fellow Social Media Lab Ryerson University