1) The document discusses three studies that examine the effects of natural disasters (earthquakes) in Italy on household consumption and liquidity.
2) It finds that after the 1980 earthquake in Southern Italy, homeowners who received cash transfers to repair housing damage increased their consumption by 30% compared to tenants who did not receive transfers.
3) Studies of the 2012 earthquake in Emilia and 2009 earthquake in Abruzzo provide additional evidence that cash transfers increase consumption more for homeowners with low liquid assets, while in-kind repairs do not boost consumption as much as cash.
OUR CITIES HOLD THE KEY TO
GLOBAL ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY.
They are the source of close to 80 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions, and depending on how we develop and manage our urban infrastructures during the next three decades, they could
become either a force for environmental destruction or a primary source of ecological rejuvenation.
To achieve the latter result, the US$350 trillion to be spent on urban infrastructure and usage over the next 30 years will have to be directed towards low to zero carbon emissions, partic-ularly in the world’s small but fastest-growing cities and developing nations, where the largest impacts can be made. There are three prerequisites for this effort:
• Cities must adopt aggressive energy reduction goals and best-practice approaches to urban planning.
• Innovative financing strategies are needed to provide $20 trillion to $30 trillion in funding for additional up-front capital costs, with developed nations working together to assist developing nations in their low-carbon
urban infrastructure initiatives.
• The latest technological advances must be utilized to support and enable the planning, construction, and usage of urban infrastructure in all cities.
If the will can be mustered to aggressively pursue urban sustainability, and these three prerequisites can be put into place, forward-thinking and aspiring urban leaders can generate urgently needed reductions in global emissions, produce attractive economic returns by transforming their cities into centres for ecological innovation, and enhance their energy security.
Adam Gulan, Markus Haavio, Juha Kilponen. Kiss Me Deadly: From Finnish Great ...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes a study that uses a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model to analyze the causes and transmission of the Finnish Great Depression in the early 1990s and the Great Recession. The study estimates a partially identified SVAR(1) model with 9 variables including real GDP, inflation, asset prices, loan volumes, and loan losses. It uses sign restrictions to identify demand, supply, asset price, and loan supply shocks. The methodology section describes the SVAR specification, identification strategy using sign restrictions on impact responses, and limitations of partial identification.
Wage adjustment and employment in EuropeEesti Pank
This document analyzes the relationship between wage adjustment and employment in Europe using firm-level survey data from 2010-2013. It finds:
1) Evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in Europe, as wages were more likely to remain unchanged or increase rather than decrease in response to negative demand shocks, especially among firms with more employees covered by collective bargaining agreements.
2) At the firm level, DNWR had a negative effect on employment - wage reductions significantly lowered the probability of a employment decrease when demand fell.
3) However, the macroeconomic impact of DNWR on unemployment is unclear and previous studies have found no or small negative effects, as wage adjustments also influence aggregate demand.
Yvonne Kreis. Systemic Risk in a Structural Model of Bank Default LinkagesEesti Pank
This paper presents a structural model of bank default linkages that focuses on the impact of asset correlations. It finds that asset correlations between large US banks have strongly increased over time and become very high in the past decade. This high level of correlation means that default frequencies are no longer close to individual default probabilities, implying that stronger macroprudential regulation is required beyond microprudential capital requirements for individual banks. The paper introduces a risk measure called Conditional Expected Default Frequency to capture systemic risk and provide a basis for setting capital standards.
Manuel Buchholz. Caps on banks’ leverage and domestic credit after the crisisEesti Pank
Caps on banks' leverage prior to the 2008 financial crisis may have stabilized lending to the private sector after the crisis. The study uses a differences-in-differences approach to compare real credit growth in countries that implemented leverage caps before 2008 to those that did not, looking at the period before and after the crisis. Preliminary analysis suggests countries with pre-crisis leverage caps experienced smaller declines in lending after 2008. The empirical model controls for other country-specific factors to isolate the effect of the leverage caps. Results could provide evidence on whether macroprudential policies help make financial downturns less severe.
On TARP and its Impact on the Mortgages Acquired by Fannie MaeEesti Pank
José J. Cao-Alvira
Associate Professor, Lehman College at the City University of New York
Alexander Núnez
PhD Candidate, EGAE School of Business at the University of Puerto Rico
2016 Open Seminars of Eesti Pank
Javier Ordóñez. Real unit labour costs in Eurozone countries: Drivers and clu...Eesti Pank
This document analyzes real unit labor costs (RULC) in 11 Eurozone countries from 1980 to 2012 to examine divergence forces. RULC is decomposed into components including labor productivity and nominal compensation per employee. A cluster analysis is performed using the Phillips and Sul methodology to test for convergence or divergence among the countries. The analysis finds that countries can be grouped into clusters based on their RULC performance, indicating latent divergence forces rather than overall convergence across the Eurozone. Internal devaluation policies are deemed insufficient and technology differences are identified as the main driver of observed divergences.
OUR CITIES HOLD THE KEY TO
GLOBAL ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY.
They are the source of close to 80 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions, and depending on how we develop and manage our urban infrastructures during the next three decades, they could
become either a force for environmental destruction or a primary source of ecological rejuvenation.
To achieve the latter result, the US$350 trillion to be spent on urban infrastructure and usage over the next 30 years will have to be directed towards low to zero carbon emissions, partic-ularly in the world’s small but fastest-growing cities and developing nations, where the largest impacts can be made. There are three prerequisites for this effort:
• Cities must adopt aggressive energy reduction goals and best-practice approaches to urban planning.
• Innovative financing strategies are needed to provide $20 trillion to $30 trillion in funding for additional up-front capital costs, with developed nations working together to assist developing nations in their low-carbon
urban infrastructure initiatives.
• The latest technological advances must be utilized to support and enable the planning, construction, and usage of urban infrastructure in all cities.
If the will can be mustered to aggressively pursue urban sustainability, and these three prerequisites can be put into place, forward-thinking and aspiring urban leaders can generate urgently needed reductions in global emissions, produce attractive economic returns by transforming their cities into centres for ecological innovation, and enhance their energy security.
Adam Gulan, Markus Haavio, Juha Kilponen. Kiss Me Deadly: From Finnish Great ...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes a study that uses a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model to analyze the causes and transmission of the Finnish Great Depression in the early 1990s and the Great Recession. The study estimates a partially identified SVAR(1) model with 9 variables including real GDP, inflation, asset prices, loan volumes, and loan losses. It uses sign restrictions to identify demand, supply, asset price, and loan supply shocks. The methodology section describes the SVAR specification, identification strategy using sign restrictions on impact responses, and limitations of partial identification.
Wage adjustment and employment in EuropeEesti Pank
This document analyzes the relationship between wage adjustment and employment in Europe using firm-level survey data from 2010-2013. It finds:
1) Evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in Europe, as wages were more likely to remain unchanged or increase rather than decrease in response to negative demand shocks, especially among firms with more employees covered by collective bargaining agreements.
2) At the firm level, DNWR had a negative effect on employment - wage reductions significantly lowered the probability of a employment decrease when demand fell.
3) However, the macroeconomic impact of DNWR on unemployment is unclear and previous studies have found no or small negative effects, as wage adjustments also influence aggregate demand.
Yvonne Kreis. Systemic Risk in a Structural Model of Bank Default LinkagesEesti Pank
This paper presents a structural model of bank default linkages that focuses on the impact of asset correlations. It finds that asset correlations between large US banks have strongly increased over time and become very high in the past decade. This high level of correlation means that default frequencies are no longer close to individual default probabilities, implying that stronger macroprudential regulation is required beyond microprudential capital requirements for individual banks. The paper introduces a risk measure called Conditional Expected Default Frequency to capture systemic risk and provide a basis for setting capital standards.
Manuel Buchholz. Caps on banks’ leverage and domestic credit after the crisisEesti Pank
Caps on banks' leverage prior to the 2008 financial crisis may have stabilized lending to the private sector after the crisis. The study uses a differences-in-differences approach to compare real credit growth in countries that implemented leverage caps before 2008 to those that did not, looking at the period before and after the crisis. Preliminary analysis suggests countries with pre-crisis leverage caps experienced smaller declines in lending after 2008. The empirical model controls for other country-specific factors to isolate the effect of the leverage caps. Results could provide evidence on whether macroprudential policies help make financial downturns less severe.
On TARP and its Impact on the Mortgages Acquired by Fannie MaeEesti Pank
José J. Cao-Alvira
Associate Professor, Lehman College at the City University of New York
Alexander Núnez
PhD Candidate, EGAE School of Business at the University of Puerto Rico
2016 Open Seminars of Eesti Pank
Javier Ordóñez. Real unit labour costs in Eurozone countries: Drivers and clu...Eesti Pank
This document analyzes real unit labor costs (RULC) in 11 Eurozone countries from 1980 to 2012 to examine divergence forces. RULC is decomposed into components including labor productivity and nominal compensation per employee. A cluster analysis is performed using the Phillips and Sul methodology to test for convergence or divergence among the countries. The analysis finds that countries can be grouped into clusters based on their RULC performance, indicating latent divergence forces rather than overall convergence across the Eurozone. Internal devaluation policies are deemed insufficient and technology differences are identified as the main driver of observed divergences.
Julia Wörz. The trade and demand nexus:Do global value chains matter?Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a paper that examines the role of global value chains (GVCs) in explaining changes in the trade-GDP growth ratio. It finds that including measures of GVC participation improves the fit of standard import demand models. Specifically, the interaction between trade flows and GVC participation indexes is positive and significant, suggesting GVCs amplified trade flows, especially for emerging economies. The results provide evidence that rising GVC trade contributed to the faster growth of trade relative to GDP in recent decades.
Leszek Balcerowicz. Euro: problems and solutionsEesti Pank
This document summarizes a presentation on problems and solutions related to the Euro. It discusses economic growth in the EU from 2008-2013, reasons for deep recessions in some Eurozone countries including financial and fiscal crises, policy responses and their impact on GDP growth, issues related to the Eurozone crisis, and necessary solutions. The presentation contains graphs and tables displaying economic indicators for various countries.
Sarah Brown. Portfolio Allocation, Background Risk and Households’ Flight to ...Eesti Pank
This document describes a fractional ordered probit (DFOP) model to analyze how background risks affect households' allocation of financial assets into risky and safe asset classes. The model accounts for the fact that background risks like labor income volatility should cause households to "deflate" or reduce their holdings of risky assets. It models the expected share of a household's portfolio allocated to high, medium, and low risk asset classes based on observed characteristics and two background risk equations representing the propensity to move away from high and medium risk assets. The model is estimated on US Survey of Consumer Finances data from 1998-2013 to investigate how different types of uncertainty influence household portfolio composition.
Peter Sarlin. Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and...Eesti Pank
The document describes a horse race comparison of early-warning models for predicting financial crises. It finds that machine learning and ensemble models like KNN, SVM, neural networks, and weighted/best-of ensembles performed best in cross-validation and out-of-sample testing, with KNN ranking first. It also introduced ways to estimate model performance uncertainty and the statistical significance of predicted probabilities and thresholds in order to better assess early-warning model reliability.
Juan Carlos Cuestas. The Great (De)leveraging in the GIIPS countries. Foreign...Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a presentation given by Juan Carlos Cuestas and Karsten Staehr on analyzing the relationship between capital inflows and private credit expansion in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain from 1998 to 2013. It begins with introducing the presenters and their background. It then reviews stylized facts about the pre-crisis boom in these countries fueled by low interest rates, a global savings glut, and willingness of international investors to take on more risk. The presentation analyzes quarterly data on private credit as a percentage of GDP and net foreign liabilities as a percentage of GDP using cointegration tests and vector autoregression/vector error correction modeling to examine the long-run relationship and causal dynamics between
Apostolos Thomadakis. Determinants of Credit Constrained Firms: Evidence from...Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a study on determinants of credit constrained firms in Central and Eastern Europe. It outlines the motivation, literature review, data sources, and empirical results. The study aims to isolate firm-level credit demand from supply, examine how banking competition and credit information sharing impact access to finance, and analyze heterogeneity across countries and years. Key findings include that loan needed firms and credit constrained firms decreased from 2008-2009 to 2012-2014 in most countries, and the impact of banking competition on access to finance depends on whether the market power or information hypothesis dominates.
Yannick Lucotte. Is There a Competition-Stability Trade-Off in European Banking?Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a presentation given by Yannick Lucotte on the relationship between banking competition and financial stability in Europe. The presentation finds that while increased banking competition leads to higher individual bank risk-taking, as measured by lower Z-scores and distance-to-default, it decreases the systemic risk contribution of banks, as measured by higher SRISK scores. This dual impact of competition on individual versus systemic risk is explained by the franchise value theory of banking and prior empirical studies. The results suggest financial regulation should consider both micro and macroprudential perspectives when evaluating the effects of banking competition policies.
Aleksei Netsunajev, Katharina Glass. Unemployment Dynamics in the US and Eur...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes a study examining the effects of uncertainty shocks on unemployment in the US and Euro Area. It finds that local uncertainty shocks have negative temporary effects on unemployment in both regions. Additionally, US uncertainty shocks influence unemployment in the Euro Area. The study uses a Bayesian Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive model with two volatility states to identify uncertainty shocks based on their impact on economic policy uncertainty indices. Impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions confirm the negative impact of local uncertainty shocks on unemployment in the US and Euro Area.
Karsten Staehr. Minimum Wages and the Wage Distribution in EstoniaEesti Pank
The document summarizes the results of a study analyzing how minimum wage changes in Estonia affect the wage distribution. It finds fairly large spill-over effects, with wages increasing beyond the 20th percentile when the minimum wage increases. The effects are stronger for women than men and older workers than younger. Spill-over effects are weaker during economic crises. A 1% increase in the minimum wage is estimated to increase average wages by about 0.11 euros. The large spill-over effects are attributed to Estonia's use of minimum wage as a main collective bargaining mechanism.
Harri Turunen. Government spending in a volatile economy at the zero lower boundEesti Pank
1) Government spending multipliers are generally small when the economy is not at the zero lower bound (ZLB), and are increased only slightly by higher uncertainty. 2) When the economy is at the ZLB due to large negative shocks to bond returns or discount rates, multipliers can be substantially above one and increase further with higher spending or productivity volatility. 3) Different types of shocks can drive the economy to the ZLB, but bond return and monetary policy shocks are the primary drivers, while productivity shocks yield relatively small multipliers.
Antonio Acconcia, Giancarlo Corsetti and Saverio Simonelli. MAFIA AND PUBLIC ...Eesti Pank
1) The document analyzes the fiscal multiplier using a quasi-experiment involving unexpected reductions in public spending in Italian provinces due to mafia infiltration of local governments.
2) Theoretical New Keynesian models predict fiscal multipliers of around 1 under fixed exchange rates when accounting for limited household participation in financial markets.
3) An instrumental variables strategy is used to estimate the output multiplier of exogenous public spending contractions at the provincial level in Italy, while controlling for common national economic and policy factors.
T. Dergiades, C. Milas, T. Panagioditis
IHU, Greece, University of Liverpool, UK , University of Macedonia, Greece, LSE, UK and RCEA, Italy.
November 2015. Open Seminar at Eesti Pank
Claudia M. Buch, Manuel Buchholz, Alexander Lipponer, Esteban Prieto. Unit la...Eesti Pank
The document discusses differences in adjustment of unit labor costs (ULC) between GIIPS (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) countries and BELL (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) countries following sudden stops in private capital flows during the financial crisis. It aims to disentangle the effects of currency union membership from country-specific factors using sectoral data. Preliminary analysis finds GIIPS countries adjusted ULC more slowly than BELL countries. The authors develop an empirical specification using sectoral nominal and real ULC data to compare adjustment across sectors and countries while controlling for other influences. They hypothesize adjustment pressure was higher in sectors more dependent on external finance. The role of ECB
The document discusses energy transitions on a global scale. It defines energy transitions as shifts from one dominant energy source to another that typically take decades to occur across countries. While governments are driving transitions to meet climate goals, there is no single global transition but rather many national transitions due to differing resources and goals. Key challenges of transitions include reducing fossil fuel use, increasing renewable electricity and electrifying other sectors like transport and industry in a cost-effective way while ensuring grid reliability. Opportunities exist for distributed renewable resources and new digital technologies to empower individual citizens and communities in transitions.
Presentation- Fourth Roundtable on Financing Water- Roger PulwartyOECD Environment
This document discusses challenges related to water resources management under a changing climate. It notes that water demand is increasing while availability is becoming more unpredictable due to factors like drought and flooding. Infrastructure is at risk from these climate impacts. Additionally, the document discusses how climate change is making water resources management more complex, with uncertainties increasing and compound events becoming more common. It advocates for approaches that can adapt to uncertainty, like prioritizing observation programs, flexibility, and resilience over rigid predictive models.
This document provides an introduction to energy efficiency. It discusses rising global energy consumption and temperature trends. Various sectors contribute to energy usage, including industry, transportation, residential, and commercial. Developing countries' energy usage is growing rapidly. The International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation (IPEEC) is presented as a forum that facilitates cooperation and information sharing around energy efficiency best practices between countries. Key opportunities for improving energy efficiency are highlighted in sectors like industry, buildings, transportation, and power. Specific policies and programs from countries like the US, Japan, and China that have successfully increased energy efficiency through standards, labels, incentives are outlined. Benefits of greater energy efficiency include reduced emissions and costs, improved energy security, access,
Second lecture:
Climate Change and the New industrial revolution -
How we can respond and prospor.
Speaker(s): Professor Lord Stern
Chair: Professor Lord Richard Layard
Recorded on 22 February 2012 in Old Theatre, Old Building
The document summarizes the key findings of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. The review examines the economic costs of climate change impacts and the costs and benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The review finds that [1] climate change presents very serious global risks if left unaddressed; [2] the benefits of strong, early action to address climate change outweigh the costs; and [3] ignoring climate change risks major economic costs and disruption similar to wars or economic depressions.
The document discusses climate change and its impacts on water resources and management. It summarizes a presentation on the Climate and Water Programme (CPWC) which started in 2001 to build awareness of climate change impacts and has since 2005 worked on operational responses. It notes that climate change is one of the most fundamental challenges facing humanity and water will be greatly impacted. The IPCC 2007 report projects significant impacts on water resources from climate change by mid-century. Adaptation is a top priority and was discussed at the Copenhagen climate summit, but commitments to mitigation and financing remain uncertain. The document emphasizes the need to mainstream climate change into water management and adaptation strategies.
Julia Wörz. The trade and demand nexus:Do global value chains matter?Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a paper that examines the role of global value chains (GVCs) in explaining changes in the trade-GDP growth ratio. It finds that including measures of GVC participation improves the fit of standard import demand models. Specifically, the interaction between trade flows and GVC participation indexes is positive and significant, suggesting GVCs amplified trade flows, especially for emerging economies. The results provide evidence that rising GVC trade contributed to the faster growth of trade relative to GDP in recent decades.
Leszek Balcerowicz. Euro: problems and solutionsEesti Pank
This document summarizes a presentation on problems and solutions related to the Euro. It discusses economic growth in the EU from 2008-2013, reasons for deep recessions in some Eurozone countries including financial and fiscal crises, policy responses and their impact on GDP growth, issues related to the Eurozone crisis, and necessary solutions. The presentation contains graphs and tables displaying economic indicators for various countries.
Sarah Brown. Portfolio Allocation, Background Risk and Households’ Flight to ...Eesti Pank
This document describes a fractional ordered probit (DFOP) model to analyze how background risks affect households' allocation of financial assets into risky and safe asset classes. The model accounts for the fact that background risks like labor income volatility should cause households to "deflate" or reduce their holdings of risky assets. It models the expected share of a household's portfolio allocated to high, medium, and low risk asset classes based on observed characteristics and two background risk equations representing the propensity to move away from high and medium risk assets. The model is estimated on US Survey of Consumer Finances data from 1998-2013 to investigate how different types of uncertainty influence household portfolio composition.
Peter Sarlin. Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and...Eesti Pank
The document describes a horse race comparison of early-warning models for predicting financial crises. It finds that machine learning and ensemble models like KNN, SVM, neural networks, and weighted/best-of ensembles performed best in cross-validation and out-of-sample testing, with KNN ranking first. It also introduced ways to estimate model performance uncertainty and the statistical significance of predicted probabilities and thresholds in order to better assess early-warning model reliability.
Juan Carlos Cuestas. The Great (De)leveraging in the GIIPS countries. Foreign...Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a presentation given by Juan Carlos Cuestas and Karsten Staehr on analyzing the relationship between capital inflows and private credit expansion in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain from 1998 to 2013. It begins with introducing the presenters and their background. It then reviews stylized facts about the pre-crisis boom in these countries fueled by low interest rates, a global savings glut, and willingness of international investors to take on more risk. The presentation analyzes quarterly data on private credit as a percentage of GDP and net foreign liabilities as a percentage of GDP using cointegration tests and vector autoregression/vector error correction modeling to examine the long-run relationship and causal dynamics between
Apostolos Thomadakis. Determinants of Credit Constrained Firms: Evidence from...Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a study on determinants of credit constrained firms in Central and Eastern Europe. It outlines the motivation, literature review, data sources, and empirical results. The study aims to isolate firm-level credit demand from supply, examine how banking competition and credit information sharing impact access to finance, and analyze heterogeneity across countries and years. Key findings include that loan needed firms and credit constrained firms decreased from 2008-2009 to 2012-2014 in most countries, and the impact of banking competition on access to finance depends on whether the market power or information hypothesis dominates.
Yannick Lucotte. Is There a Competition-Stability Trade-Off in European Banking?Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a presentation given by Yannick Lucotte on the relationship between banking competition and financial stability in Europe. The presentation finds that while increased banking competition leads to higher individual bank risk-taking, as measured by lower Z-scores and distance-to-default, it decreases the systemic risk contribution of banks, as measured by higher SRISK scores. This dual impact of competition on individual versus systemic risk is explained by the franchise value theory of banking and prior empirical studies. The results suggest financial regulation should consider both micro and macroprudential perspectives when evaluating the effects of banking competition policies.
Aleksei Netsunajev, Katharina Glass. Unemployment Dynamics in the US and Eur...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes a study examining the effects of uncertainty shocks on unemployment in the US and Euro Area. It finds that local uncertainty shocks have negative temporary effects on unemployment in both regions. Additionally, US uncertainty shocks influence unemployment in the Euro Area. The study uses a Bayesian Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive model with two volatility states to identify uncertainty shocks based on their impact on economic policy uncertainty indices. Impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions confirm the negative impact of local uncertainty shocks on unemployment in the US and Euro Area.
Karsten Staehr. Minimum Wages and the Wage Distribution in EstoniaEesti Pank
The document summarizes the results of a study analyzing how minimum wage changes in Estonia affect the wage distribution. It finds fairly large spill-over effects, with wages increasing beyond the 20th percentile when the minimum wage increases. The effects are stronger for women than men and older workers than younger. Spill-over effects are weaker during economic crises. A 1% increase in the minimum wage is estimated to increase average wages by about 0.11 euros. The large spill-over effects are attributed to Estonia's use of minimum wage as a main collective bargaining mechanism.
Harri Turunen. Government spending in a volatile economy at the zero lower boundEesti Pank
1) Government spending multipliers are generally small when the economy is not at the zero lower bound (ZLB), and are increased only slightly by higher uncertainty. 2) When the economy is at the ZLB due to large negative shocks to bond returns or discount rates, multipliers can be substantially above one and increase further with higher spending or productivity volatility. 3) Different types of shocks can drive the economy to the ZLB, but bond return and monetary policy shocks are the primary drivers, while productivity shocks yield relatively small multipliers.
Antonio Acconcia, Giancarlo Corsetti and Saverio Simonelli. MAFIA AND PUBLIC ...Eesti Pank
1) The document analyzes the fiscal multiplier using a quasi-experiment involving unexpected reductions in public spending in Italian provinces due to mafia infiltration of local governments.
2) Theoretical New Keynesian models predict fiscal multipliers of around 1 under fixed exchange rates when accounting for limited household participation in financial markets.
3) An instrumental variables strategy is used to estimate the output multiplier of exogenous public spending contractions at the provincial level in Italy, while controlling for common national economic and policy factors.
T. Dergiades, C. Milas, T. Panagioditis
IHU, Greece, University of Liverpool, UK , University of Macedonia, Greece, LSE, UK and RCEA, Italy.
November 2015. Open Seminar at Eesti Pank
Claudia M. Buch, Manuel Buchholz, Alexander Lipponer, Esteban Prieto. Unit la...Eesti Pank
The document discusses differences in adjustment of unit labor costs (ULC) between GIIPS (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) countries and BELL (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) countries following sudden stops in private capital flows during the financial crisis. It aims to disentangle the effects of currency union membership from country-specific factors using sectoral data. Preliminary analysis finds GIIPS countries adjusted ULC more slowly than BELL countries. The authors develop an empirical specification using sectoral nominal and real ULC data to compare adjustment across sectors and countries while controlling for other influences. They hypothesize adjustment pressure was higher in sectors more dependent on external finance. The role of ECB
The document discusses energy transitions on a global scale. It defines energy transitions as shifts from one dominant energy source to another that typically take decades to occur across countries. While governments are driving transitions to meet climate goals, there is no single global transition but rather many national transitions due to differing resources and goals. Key challenges of transitions include reducing fossil fuel use, increasing renewable electricity and electrifying other sectors like transport and industry in a cost-effective way while ensuring grid reliability. Opportunities exist for distributed renewable resources and new digital technologies to empower individual citizens and communities in transitions.
Presentation- Fourth Roundtable on Financing Water- Roger PulwartyOECD Environment
This document discusses challenges related to water resources management under a changing climate. It notes that water demand is increasing while availability is becoming more unpredictable due to factors like drought and flooding. Infrastructure is at risk from these climate impacts. Additionally, the document discusses how climate change is making water resources management more complex, with uncertainties increasing and compound events becoming more common. It advocates for approaches that can adapt to uncertainty, like prioritizing observation programs, flexibility, and resilience over rigid predictive models.
This document provides an introduction to energy efficiency. It discusses rising global energy consumption and temperature trends. Various sectors contribute to energy usage, including industry, transportation, residential, and commercial. Developing countries' energy usage is growing rapidly. The International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation (IPEEC) is presented as a forum that facilitates cooperation and information sharing around energy efficiency best practices between countries. Key opportunities for improving energy efficiency are highlighted in sectors like industry, buildings, transportation, and power. Specific policies and programs from countries like the US, Japan, and China that have successfully increased energy efficiency through standards, labels, incentives are outlined. Benefits of greater energy efficiency include reduced emissions and costs, improved energy security, access,
Second lecture:
Climate Change and the New industrial revolution -
How we can respond and prospor.
Speaker(s): Professor Lord Stern
Chair: Professor Lord Richard Layard
Recorded on 22 February 2012 in Old Theatre, Old Building
The document summarizes the key findings of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. The review examines the economic costs of climate change impacts and the costs and benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The review finds that [1] climate change presents very serious global risks if left unaddressed; [2] the benefits of strong, early action to address climate change outweigh the costs; and [3] ignoring climate change risks major economic costs and disruption similar to wars or economic depressions.
The document discusses climate change and its impacts on water resources and management. It summarizes a presentation on the Climate and Water Programme (CPWC) which started in 2001 to build awareness of climate change impacts and has since 2005 worked on operational responses. It notes that climate change is one of the most fundamental challenges facing humanity and water will be greatly impacted. The IPCC 2007 report projects significant impacts on water resources from climate change by mid-century. Adaptation is a top priority and was discussed at the Copenhagen climate summit, but commitments to mitigation and financing remain uncertain. The document emphasizes the need to mainstream climate change into water management and adaptation strategies.
Henk van Schaik - Water and Climate Change, Bridging Gapstasstie
The document discusses climate change and its impacts on water resources and management. It summarizes a presentation given by Henk van Schaik on climate change adaptation strategies. Some key points include:
- Climate change is one of the most fundamental challenges facing humanity and impacts water resources through changes in precipitation patterns and runoff.
- Adaptation is key given the uncertainties in climate projections. Strategies should focus on no-regret measures like improving water use efficiency and storage.
- Information gaps exist around hydrological data and understanding local impacts. Capacity building is needed, as well as technology transfer and additional funding to support adaptation.
- Countries need to develop adaptation plans tailored to local hotspots like ar
The Physical Science Basis of Climate Changeipcc-media
The document summarizes key messages from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report regarding the physical science basis of climate change. It discusses how the climate has warmed by 0.85°C since 1850 due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Glaciers and snow cover have declined and sea levels have risen due to this warming. Future projections estimate further increases in temperature, changes in precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events. The report emphasizes that without significant reductions in emissions, climate change impacts on issues like food/water security and human settlements will be severe and widespread.
Conclusions
Mitigating and adapting to climate
change while honoring the diversity
of humans entails major transformations in the ways our global society
functions and interacts with natural
ecosystems. We are encouraged by a
recent surge of concern. Governmental
bodies are making climate emergency
declarations. Schoolchildren are striking. Ecocide lawsuits are proceeding
in the courts. Grassroots citizen movements are demanding change, and
many countries, states and provinces,
cities, and businesses are responding.
As the Alliance of World Scientists,
we stand ready to assist decision-makers in a just transition to a sustainable
and equitable future. We urge widespread use of vital signs, which will
better allow policymakers, the private sector, and the public to understand the magnitude of this crisis,
track progress, and realign priorities
for alleviating climate change. The
good news is that such transformative change, with social and economic
justice for all, promises far greater
human well-being than does business
as usual. We believe that the prospects
will be greatest if decision-makers and
all of humanity promptly respond to
this warning and declaration of a climate emergency and act to sustain life
on planet Earth, our only home.
Linking the energy crisis with climate change, Ritu Mathu, TERI University, I...ESD UNU-IAS
This lecture is part of the 2016 ProSPER.Net Young Researchers’ School on sustainable energy for transforming lives: availability, accessibility, affordability
This document contains 3 figures from a World Bank report on climate change. Figure 1 shows greenhouse gas emissions per capita by income level in 2005. Figure 2 shows how switching from SUVs to more fuel-efficient cars in the US could offset emissions from providing electricity to 1.6 billion people. Figure 3 shows that historically, high-income countries have contributed most to cumulative global emissions.
A briefing from the Poznan Climate Change ConferenceLeonardo ENERGY
The document summarizes key discussions and outcomes from the Poznan Climate Change Conference (COP14) in January 2009. It provides background on climate science and the UNFCCC process. Discussions focused on negotiating a post-Kyoto agreement and increasing climate action by all countries. Progress was made on adaptation funding but not on emissions reductions commitments. Developing countries expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations. Al Gore called for bolder climate targets and linking emissions reductions to poverty reduction.
Academia session: Dabo Guan, University of East Anglia, 16th January UN Water...water-decade
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Antonio Acconcia, Giancarlo Corsetti and Saverio Simonelli. CONSUMPTION, LIQUIDITY AND PUBLIC TRANSFERS: EVIDENCE FROM ITALIAN QUAKES
1. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
CONSUMPTION, LIQUIDITY AND PUBLIC
TRANSFERS: EVIDENCE FROM ITALIAN
QUAKES
Antonio Acconcia, Giancarlo Corsetti and Saverio Simonelli
Estonia Central Bank
Tallin - August 19, 2014
1 / 33
2. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
Introduction to recent micro-literature on fiscal multiplier
I Many recent papers exploit quasi-experiment and micro- or local
data to study the transmission of fiscal policy
I Multipliers of fiscal spending at local level (Nakamura Steinsson,
ACS, Shoag, Chodorow-Reich, Serrato and Wingender,Clemens
and Miran etc.)
I Main motivation: assess the effect of public spending controlling
for national monetary policy and budget policy (local spending
not financed with local taxes).
I Main results: with some exception, local multiplier is found to
be around 1.5.
I Key question: what do we learn about the true equilibrium
multiplier?
I This crucially depends on monetary policy and budget policy.
I An important answer: theoretical and empirical evidence on
specific transmission channels. Open research directions.
2 / 33
3. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The earthquake paper: the question
I Households with a positive net wealth should be in a position to
smooth consumption in the face of temporary income
(employment) and expenditure shocks.
I Yet, ability to do so is heavily conditioned by the liquidity of
their portfolios—i.e. the overall costs of extracting fungible
cash from their assets. See recent studies on
wealthy-hand-to-mouth e.g. Kaplan and Violante
I Goal of the paper: contribute empirical micro-evidence on the
consumption effects of transfers whose main effect is that of
raising households’ liquidity.
3 / 33
4. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The earthquake paper: empirical strategy
Earthquakes as quasi-experiments have two key advantages
1. Public programmes typically aim to provide upfront cash to
homeowners, who are relatively wealthy but may not be liquid,
to finance the costs of fixing quake related damages to their
housing units.
Since the transfers are set in proportion to estimates of these
costs, they can be thought of as a loan to households against
anticipated expenditure: their potential effect on consumption is
likely to reflect primarily a rise in the current liquidity of the
households’ portfolios.
2. Size of the transfers.
4 / 33
5. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The earthquake paper: empirical strategy (cont.)
I Main case study:
(a) the 1980 earthquake in Campania and Basilicata
I Extension and robustness:
(b) the 2012 quake in Emilia
(c) the 2009 quake in Abruzzo (L’Aquila)
? in (a) one region (Basilicata) is included in the transfer
programme with a delay
? in (b) and (c) we have measures of households’
liquid-wealth-to-income
? with (c) transfer in kind (housing repair services) rather than
cash transfers (to finance repair work)
5 / 33
6. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
Main results
I 1980 quake in Southern Italy: Homeowners increase their
consumption in the year they have access to transfers (1981 in
Campania, 1982 in Basilicata).
I Upon cash payment of transfers, current consumption of
homeowners rises 30 percent above control group (tenants and
homeowners initially excluded from the transfer programme).
I 2012 quake in Emilia: Homeowners consumption response is
significant if they have a low ratio of liquid wealth to income,
and bank debt.
I 2009 quake in Abbruzzo: Some evidence that homeowners
consumption does not rise if housing repair services are provided
in kind, instead of being financed by cash transfers.
6 / 33
7. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
Literature
I Kaplan and Violante (2014)
I Agarwal-Liu-Souleles (2007), Johnson-Parker-Souleles
(2006,2009), Parker-Souleles-Johnson-McClelland (2013),
Shapiro-Slemrod (2009).
? Evidence from the US stimulus suggests that households spend
around 25% of transfers on non-durable consumption in the
quarter they receive it.
I Broda-Parker (2012), Souleles (2009) Misra-Surico (2013)
? Evidence that households with a low ratio of liquid assets to
income spend at least twice as much as the average household;
mortgagors exhibit the largest and most significant response.
7 / 33
8. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
Data
From the Bank of Italy Surveys of Household Income and
Wealth (SHIW) in the years 1980-1984, and 2006-2012.
I 1980-1984: Repeated cross-sectional data for sample
representative of Italian population (about 3,000 households,
representative of the Italian population).
I 2006-2012: Includes a panel, and better detailed information on
households portfolios and mortgages.
I Surveys contain microeconomic data (annual frequency) on
consumption, after-tax income, as well as information on the
households region of residence, the residential status, the number
of components, age, education, and employment.
8 / 33
9. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
Main case study: The 1980 earthquake in South of Italy
I Major earthquake hitting a large area over two regions,
Campania and Basilicata, with 5 million inhabitants.
I About 3500 fatalities and 9500 injured.
I 120,000 buildings either collapsed or were seriously damaged.
9 / 33
10. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The economic effects of the 1980 earthquake
A quake has contrasting effects on economic activity: destruction of
production capacity versus new job opportunities for the
reconstruction. These effects led to ambiguous results in the literature.
We are able to show the following
I Increase in income uncertainty (average disposable income
actually rises)
I Shock to durable expenditure, impinging on real incomes (not
shown in the following)
I Drop in consumption by tenants, excluded from the transfer
programme
10 / 33
11. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
Some evidence on the effects of the quake on income uncertainty
Ex-post variability in income as a proxy for ex-ante uncertainty
(Dardanoni, 1991):
I Variability of income or variability of the residuals from
regressing income on controls for the occupation of the head of
household (among others).
11 / 33
12. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
Some evidence on the effects of the quake on income uncertainty (cont.)
Quake Area Control Area Quake Area Control Area
F 3.19 0.33 4.02 0.50
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
W0 15.74 30.18 15.67 1.98
(0.000) (0.000) (0.00) (0.159)
W50 13.48 16.77 12.32 1.55
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.216)
Controls No No Yes Yes
Note: The table shows results of tests on equality of variability of in-come,
comparing 1981, the year just after the earthquake, with 1980.
Columns under the headings Control are based on OLS residuals of the
regression of income on a number of controls for households character-istics.
12 / 33
13. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
Some evidence on the effects of the quake on income uncertainty (cont.)
13 / 33
14. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The effects of the quake on durable consumption: expenditure shock
I Even if we detect no fall in the average disposable incomes of
residents in the quake area, their average budget may nonetheless
suffer because of material damages, that can be interpreted as an
exogenous shock to expenditure implied by the quake.
I Need to replace furniture and appliances much in advance to
their natural wear-and-tear process.
I No direct information in survey. Durable consumption only
recorded from 1980 on.
I Proxy to durable consumption expenditure using the survey item
“consumi reali,” which records purchases of furniture, works of
art and the like.
14 / 33
15. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The effects of the quake on durable consumption: expenditure shock
I Calculate the share of households that report a non-zero
expenditure for consumi reali, averaged over the years 1977-79
and 1981-83. This share:
I falls in the control group (national) from 10 to 7.5 percent.
I increases in the quake area, from 9 to 12.5 percent (a +50% in
relative terms).
I The rise is stronger for owner-occupiers than for tenants.
15 / 33
16. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The effects of the quake on non-durable consumption by tenants
I To assess the response of households’ consumption to the quake,
we focus on the subsample of non owner-occupiers—roughly
1/2 of our sample.
I Owner- and Non-Owner-occupiers differ in a number of
dimensions:
I tenants tend to be younger, less educated, more likely to be
employed in the manufacturing sector or unemployed. Do not
receive reconstruction money, but are also unlikely to be exposed
to housing wealth losses.
I However, in the aftermath of the quake both groups arguably
faced a similar economic environment (for employment and
income prospects), and benefitted from common policies aimed
to contain the negative consequences of the disaster, including a
temporary tax relief.
16 / 33
17. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The effects of the quake on non-durable consumption by tenants
ci;t = + r + t +
18. Quake + Yi;t +
Xi;t + ei;t
I ci;t is non-durable consumption expenditures by household i in
year t;
I Quake is a dummy that is equal to one in 1981 for the regions hit
by the quake.
I Xi;t denotes a vector of further control variables (characteristics
of the head of the household).
17 / 33
19. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The effects of the quake on non-durable consumption by tenants (cont.)
Non-owner occupiers in Campania vs the rest of Italy
(1) (2) (3) (4)
1980-81 1980-81 Age65 1981-83
Quake -0.10 -0.10 -0.12 -0.12
(-2.92) (-3.12) (-3.02) (-3.81)
X NO YES YES YES
Observations 963 963 809 1508
Control regions are Abruzzo, Molise, Apulia and Calabria.
p 0:05, p 0:01, p 0:001
18 / 33
20. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
Our main question: the effect of transfers on consumption
I In January 1981, owner-occupiers of damaged housing units
were entitled to transfers to ‘restore habitability’ (Act n. 80 by
Special Representative of the Government).
I Between 1981-1983, Italian government mobilizes resources for
about the 3% of the 1981 GDP of Campania:
75% of this financial support was targeted to rebuild private
dwellings (Commissione Parlamentare)
? Per household average: 6 millions of 1981 liras between 1981
and 83 (more than half than yearly income).
19 / 33
21. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
Our main question: the effect of transfers on consumption (cont.)
I Transfers targeted to owner occupiers, in relation to the
anticipated cost of repairing quake-related damages of housing
units.
I Due to randomness in political process, delay in the timing of the
payment across two regions:
1. municipalities in Campania immediately included in the
programme: 337 initially, 542 out of 549 by May 22, 1981.
2. most municipalities in Basilicata included in the transfer
program only in November (Nov 13 1981).
20 / 33
22. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The effect of transfers on consumption: econometric model
I The empirical model is as follows:
ci;t = + t +
25. 3 (HSs TRr;t) +
Xi;t + ui;t;
I ci;t is the log of non-durable consumption expenditures by
household i in year t;
I t is a year fixed effect;
I HSs (Housing Status) is a dummy equal to one if owner occupier;
I TRr;t (Transfer Region) is a dummy equal to one in the year t
when the region of residence r is included in the programme;
I Xi;t denotes a vector of further control variables (head of
household characteristics).
21 / 33
26. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The effect of transfers on consumption: econometric model (cont.)
I The variable HS controls for differences in wealth and life-cycle
effects between tenants and homeowners.
I The variable TR controls for region-specific shocks that may
conflate with the effects of liquidity transfers.
I The interaction HS*TR:
1. Under the (realistic) assumption that housing wealth is illiquid,
2. since cash transfers are effectively a loan: made accessible in
advance to finance the anticipated cost of repairing housing
damages
allows us to capture the effect on consumption of an increase of
the degree of liquidity of wealth.
22 / 33
27. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The effect of transfers on consumption: econometric model (cont.)
I If tenants were dropped from our sample, our empirical
specification would be similar to Johnson et al. (2006, 2009),
Parker et al. (2013).
I If we focused on each of the two regions in isolation, the
empirical model would boil down to a standard diff-in-diff.
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28. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The effect of transfers on consumption: evidence
(1) (2) (3)
HS TR 0.18 0.12 0.12
(2.68) (2.23) (2.50)
HS 0.03 -0.15 -0.10
(0.74) (-4.86) (-3.48)
TR -0.08 -0.09 -0.08
(-2.02) (-2.72) (-1.96)
Income 0.57 0.34
(21.04) (10.69)
X NO NO YES
Observations 971 971 971
t statistics in parentheses
p 0:05, p 0:01, p 0:001
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29. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The effect of transfers on consumption: evidence (cont.)
? Estimating the 1981 transfer for private reconstruction
The total transfer for the earthquake in 1981-83 was 5.7 billions
of Italian liras. Allocating 1/3 to each year, we have a total of
about 2 billion liras per year.
With roughly 700,000 owner occupiers in the quake area =
about 6 million liras per household entitled to the transfers.
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30. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The effect of transfers on consumption: evidence (cont.)
? Estimating the marginal propensity to consume out of the
transfer (multiplier)
I The relative hikes in the consumption of homeowners upon
receiving the transfer is about 1 million lira.
? Back of the envelope assessment: out of a yearly transfer of 2.6
million, this is equivalent to a marginal propensity to consume as
high as 33%.
I Relative to the control group (consumption in part of the control
group falls)
I Hike in consumption only in one year: consumption falls back to
baseline in subsequent years (1982 for Campania homeowners,
1983 for Basilicata homeowners)
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31. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
Other quakes
I In our first quasi-experiment, we find that the subsample of
owner occupiers entitled to transfers significantly increase their
consumption on average. But in principle there could be
differences within this group.
I In 1980, the Bank of Italy surveys are not detailed enough on the
households’ financial positions.
I In more recent years, the new, richer surveys by the Bank of Italy
allow us to focus sharply on the differential consumption
response to stimulus depending on degree of liquidity of wealth.
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32. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The 2012 quake in Emilia
I Strong quake hit an extensive area of the Emilia region (small
areas in Lombardia and Veneto) on May 20 and 29, 2012.
I 27 fatalities; 11,000 damaged houses.
I Central government channeled 2.4 billion of euros to support
house repairing activities.
I Main instruments:
bank loans guaranteed by the state to cover the damages of the
house; tax credit against yearly cost of bank debt;
suspension of mortgage payments.
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33. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The 2012 quake in Emilia (cont.)
I Focus on the ‘panel’ in the SHIW for the years 2008-2010-2012
(so to control for unobserved household-specific features).
I Run the estimation model separate for illiquid and liquid
households
I Illiquid households: liquid asset below 50% of current income
and bank debt (mortgage)
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34. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The 2012 Quake in Emilia.
Homeowners’ Consumption by Degree of Wealth Liquidity
ci;t = +
37. 3Emilia +
Xi;t + ui;t
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
All No Yes No Yes
EMILIA 0.05 0.02 0.24 0.04 0.26
(1.64) (0.46) (3.74) (1.33) (4.19)
Observations 798 634 164 634 164
Control regions are Liguria, Tuscany, Marche and Umbria.
No and Yes refer to inclusion of controls.
p 0:05, p 0:01, p 0:001
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38. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The 2008 quake in Abruzzo (L’Aquila)
I The 2009 L’Aquila earthquake occurred in the region of Abruzzo
on 6 April 2009.
I 309 fatalities. 10,000 damaged houses.
I The reconstruction cost were reimbursed directly to the
construction company.
I Same econometric model as before, but a big CAVEAT regarding
timing: SHIW is run in 2010, not in 2009. So we cannot observe
the impact multiplier.
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39. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
The 2009 Quake in Abruzzo. Homeowners’ Consumption by Degree of
Wealth ‘Liquidity’.
ci;t = +
42. 3Abruzzo +
Xi;t + ui;t
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Liquid Illiquid No-Mortage Mortgage Illiq+Mort.
ABRUZZO 0.05 0.05 0.09 -0.03 0.26
(0.47) (0.77) (1.72) (-0.19) (1.34)
gy 0.27 0.13 0.19 0.14 0.16
(5.09) (3.08) (4.42) (1.97) (0.88)
Observations 341 522 670 193 76
Control regions are the ones in the Center-South Italy.
p 0:05, p 0:01, p 0:001
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43. Introduction The 1980 quake Transfers and consumption (R1) Other quakes: 2012 Emilia (R2) 2009 Abruzzo (R3) Conclusions
Conclusions
I We exploit natural disasters as quasi-experiments to provide
empirical evidence on the consumption response to cash
transfers by (illiquid) homeowners, that are effectively a loan to
households.
I Transfers not a gift, that the household can allocate among
alternative uses in a discretionary manner. Yet provision of cash
in anticipation of expenditure raises household liquidity—agents
can choose to use part of the loan to finance current non-durable
expenditure.
I Using the households excluded from the programme as a control
group, we show the homeowners respond to these transfers in an
economically significant way.
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