This document discusses using land-use modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on coastal development. It presents an overview of a land-use change impact analysis (LUCIA) model developed to analyze scenarios of future land development and compare the effects of climate change factors like sea level rise. The model considers driving forces like demographics, the economy, and spatial planning zones to project potential land use transitions. Scenarios were developed for a region of Northern Jutland, Denmark, examining standard development projections and varying levels of expansion in summer cottages. The modeling demonstrates how climate impacts like flooding from sea level rise can inform coastal zone planning.

1. The Impact of Climate Change on Future Land-use in a Coastal Zone Planning Context 30. June – 3. July 2008 Perugia, Italy Henning Sten Hansen

4. Emissions scenarios - SRES CO 2 emissions (Gt) CO 2 concentration (ppm) Scenario A1 : Rapid economic growth, reduction in regional difference in income, population passing its peak in the middle of this century Rapid introduction of effective technologies FI : Intensive use of fossil energy sources T : Focus on non-fossil energy sources B : Using as well fossil as non-fossil energy sources Scenario A2 : Continuous uneven economic development and unbroken population growth Scenario B1 : Rapid economic growth and but re- organisation the to service- and information society, introduction of resource effective technologies, the global population culminates about 2050, focus on sustainable development Scenario B2 : Moderate economic growth, continuous moderate growth on world population, slow technological development, focus on local strategies towards a sustainable society

5. Global warming and sea level rise Temperature change ( 0 C) * Sea level rise (m) * SRES - Special Report on Emissions Scenarios *

6. Sea level rise in the Baltic Sea Best case scenario slr = 9 cm Worst case scenario slr = 90 cm

7. Climate change and spatial planning Source: Danish Television NEWS

8. Potential flooding year 2100

9. LUCIA - L and- U se C hange I mpact A nalysis GIS based land-use Projection model Input Current land-use Zones and plans Socio-economic data Output Scenarios : Future Land-use Indicators Sustainability ? ? ? Respond

10. LUCIA User Interface Project management Scenario management Log file

12. Conceptual land-use model Suitability Accessibility Proximity Attractivity Micro level driving forces Socio-economic changes Macro level driving forces Land-use (t + 1) Land-use (t) Zones Zones Zones Zones

15. Land-use 1990 CORINE 1990 Building and Housing Register Protected Nature areas

17. Accessibility Low High Roads

19. Spatial planning zones Protected areas Urban zones Summer cottage zones

20. Active, passive and static classes

23. Future impacts of expected sea level rise