COVID-19 is a disastrous pandemic which has panicked the whole world and has to socio-economically tear the world for years to come.

1. Epidemiology of COVID-19
Pandemic and its Control strategies
Epidemiology of COVID-19 is illusive as
it is less a disease but more a ‘political
disaster’ or a ‘Disease of Diagnosis’ or
just a ‘Political disorder’.
BR Singh
Pri. Scientist and Head
Division of Epidemiology, ICAR-IVRI,
Izatnagar-243122

2. No study till date on COVID-19 Epidemiology
• Most of the countries are busy in fighting COVID-19 in dark without
knowing its epidemiology as they feel it is better to treat than to
understand it now.
• However, without epidemiological understanding of the disease its control
will remain a dream.
• If epidemiology of the disease would have been tried to be understood
better there would have been no total-lockdown but selective strategy
as adopted by Sweden and several other nations based on limited
knowledge of epidemiology of the disease.
• The data on COVID-19 is not epidemiological data but just number of
cases, deaths, testing (targeted) or survival of the virus on different
surfaces, settings and temperatures.
• Till now no attempts are made to understand its reproduction indices (R0
values) so that extent of required measures can be evaluated properly.
• As I believe that it is less a disease but more a ‘political disaster’ or a
‘Disease of Diagnosis’ or just a ‘Political disorder’ it is fought with
political weapons than the strategic disease control techniques.

3. Epidemiological determinants of the COVID-19
• Though several studies have been published or under publication, none of the
study qualifies for the classification as epidemiological, most of the studies are
either ecological (not fully ecological too) or clinico-pathological (even without
proper understanding of pathology).
• Some studies claim to determine several modulators of the disease as, median age
of population, BCG vaccination status, several co-morbidities but conflicting
reports just proved that it is just a game to play with non-epidemiological data in
leisure time under lockdown.
• The biggest determinant appears to be the ‘politics’, which overruled all real
determinants of the COVID-19.
• Another important determinant is the ‘creation of panic’ about a disease which is
not able to make sick even one out of a hundred and not able to kill even five of
the 10,000 people.
• All the information in public domain appears to be game of projection of
misleading numbers, don’t know for what, that is why it is a political disease or
disease of targeted testing.
• One more determinant of COVID-19 is information or misinformation flood (at
war mode) on social media and sociopolitical platforms.

4. Spread of COVID-19
• It is documented that the disease is communicable through human to human
contact, human to animal contact but we don’t know the exact role of animals,
foods (animals origin as well as vegetables, fruits) and environment (air, water,
soil, house flies and other flying swabs). That we are fighting with an enemy
without known even its address.
• Faeco-oral transmission of Coronaviruses which caused epidemics in pigs and
humans earlier is well documented but no-one is ready to accept that this may
also be important for SARS-CoV-2 also. Probably we have lost the fight in our mind
even before fighting it.
• Survival of the virus for several weeks in ship cabins is documented still it is spread
that the virus may survive for a day or two on surfaces and air.
• The virus is detected in water and sewage but we are trying to run away from the
facts and happy to live in lockdown, it is like an ostrich keeping its head hiding in
sand to think that there is no danger.
• Several conflicting statements at level of WHO and different disease control
institutions regarding spread of disease my be either due to ill-knowledge about
the disease or intentional with some political motives.
• All good attempts made by most of the powerful countries to spread the disease
globally through intentional import and export of potential spreaders of the
disease by one or other means (still ongoing inter and intra states), and then
politicizing the spread in different ways, raise suspicion to classify it as a political
disaster rather than a true pandemic of a viral disease.

5. Iceberg of COVID-19
• Except a few isolated attempts no country has attempted to determine the
disease iceberg required to estimate the required efforts to contain the disease.
• To determine the extent of COVID-19 disease iceberg we need to use antibody
tests extensively with well designed sampling plan using one or more tests with
high sensitivity and specificity.
• We are fighting with the tip of the disease and destined to crackdown under
lockdown.
• Direct losses due to COVID-19 in form of sick and dead is only tip of the iceberg
of economic disease probably leading to economic paralysis after extended
lockdowns all over the globe which may be killing billions due to our madness to
save a few million people already approaching towards there end due to several
co-morbidities or spending there productive life decades ago.
• There is an urgent need to think scientifically, this disease is here to teach the
less from Darwin, “Survival of the fittest”.
• As the world is ruled mostly by physically less fit and people who have enjoyed
there productive life but they want to be ruler till their end or they think
themselves as endless (Rawans), that is why we all are posing as human to show
off humanity but we forget the humanity towards the coming generations and
poor of this world constituting more than 90% of the humans of the globe.

6. Common Control strategies
• Live and let live, like most of less severe diseases, COVID-19 has to live on this
earth for long, so we have to accept it as cohabitant on the earth. After all we
can’t win over the nature.
• Coronization of the world as soon as possible using some less pathogenic and
more contagious virus.
• Forgetting at the earliest that some vaccine will come and save the world in real
time. Even if one is made available in time to come that is destined to fail in
containing the disease for years to come. Failing vaccination and repeated
outbreaks of age old diseases is lesson to be learned at the earliest.
• Treatments for viral diseases are failing since ages, it may be useful for some
economically able to afford it but at large always failed.
• Respecting the Nature and its forces, and accepting the fact that we are not
supreme.
• As it is a political disaster, the best strategy is avoiding the politicizing of the
numbers of targeted diagnostic tests.
• As it is also a disease of diagnosis another important strategy is either ‘Stop
diagnosis’ or ‘Stop public display’ of the numbers now updated in real time.
• Displaying numbers appears to be a political strategy to create panic among
masses (for one or other gain), the importance should be given to ward of panic
of numbers.
• As one of the most important determinant of COVID-19 is information or
misinformation flood (at war mode) on social media and sociopolitical platforms
if we can put a break on it or stop for some period instead of lockdown the
disease will be controlled in much less time and less economic implications.

7. Epidemiological COVID-19 Control strategies
• Through clinical observations we know the most vulnerable population for
COVID-19 morbidity and mortality (aged, people with underlying diseases
and compromised immunity our target should be to save those vulnerable
people through isolation and physical distancing.
• We know that in healthy population, young and adults the disease is
either unapparent or mild, therefore they should be allowed for free
movement to work and spend leisure life so that the herd immunity can
be created at the earliest. Stop, absurd lockdowns.
• We also know that natural infections are better creators of immunity
than any of the best vaccines thus, we should actively promote it to get
most of the healthy and young population to contract the infection.
• We understand that the disease also spread through asymptomatic
infected people (young and adults) thus their contact with vulnerable be
stopped to the maximum.
• Attempts must be intensified for Natural (through healthy food and
lifestyle, de-worming etc.) or Induced Non-specific (like BCG vaccination)
immunity.
• Educating the people with reality (still unknown) may be other best tool
to control the disease because disease is more a created panic than
COVID-19 itself.

8. Comments
• Your comments are welcome and anticipated
for better understanding and control of
COVID-19.
• Remember, eradication of COVID-19 and its
sisters is not possible in near future.