Eops 2015 3_24

Eyes Over Puget Sound
Fieldlog Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry andSatellite Moorings
Publication No. 15-03-072
Start here
Up-to-date observations of visiblewater quality conditions in Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca
Surface Conditions Report
March 24, 2015
Special: Expected Drought Effects and
a Warmer Puget Sound

Personalfieldlog p.4
How was Puget Soundformed?
Climateconditions p.6
Air temperature andoceanconditions remainwarm. Rivers are
above normal,especially to the north. There has beenalmost
four inches (10 cm)of rainduring the past two weeks.
Watercolumn p.7
Starting inOctober,temperatures are the highest onour record
since 1989. Oxygenandsalinities are becoming lower.
Moorings p.38
Water aroundthe mooring continues to be warmer and
generally fresher thanpast several years. Seasonally,variability
of eachparameter remains minimal fromJanuary to March.
Aerialphotography p.10
Patches of jellyfishare still present infinger inlets of South
Sound. Water show signs of blooms only inconfined,stratified
bays. Otherwise,the surface waters are blue or carry dramatic
loads of suspendedsediment near rivers.
Ferryand satellite p.36
Isothermal conditions appear across Central Basinandthe
Straits withlittle signs of phytoplanktongrowth.
LONG-TERMMARINEMONITORINGUNIT
Mya Keyzers
Laura Hermanson
Brooke McIntyre
Skip Albertson
Dr. Christopher
Krembs
Julia Bos
Suzan Pool
Editorial assistance provided by: Julianne Ruffner, Suzan Pool, CarolMaloy
Marine conditionsfrom 3-24-2015 at a glance
Please give us feedback
Suzan Pool
Guest:
Dr. Brandon
Sackmann,
Integral

Expected drought effects and a warmer Puget Sound
Eyes Over Puget Sound
Publication No. 15-03-072
EOPS
Up-to-date observations of visiblewater quality conditions in Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca
Special Report Insert:
Expected drought effects
and a warmer Puget Sound
March 24, 2015
Returnto Eyes over Puget Sound
Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10

Extreme low snowpack has triggered a drought
GovernorJay Inslee declared a drought on March 13 in three regions of Washington state. State law
allows Ecology to declare a drought emergencyif we determine that all or part of a geographical area
is suffering from drought conditions.
Snowpack is like a frozen reservoir
forriver basins, usually collecting
over the winter and then slowly
melting, providing a water supply for
rivers and streams.
Currently snowpack statewide is 26
percentof normal, with little to no
snowfall predicted into the spring,
and warmer-than-normal
temperatures through the summer.
Read the story on
Ecology’s website

Record high winter temperatures mean rain, not snow
Although we’ve had plentiful precipitation, warm temperatures have pushed the snow line to high
elevations and reduced the snowpack in most areas. Some areas that are relatively cold, like the
North Cascades,have avoided this problem.
This year’s warm temperatures follow a long-term trend in warming.
Trends in PNW Climate
Climate change modeling
suggests that this winter’s
weather conditions,
although extreme compared
to the historical record, will
become more commonin
the future.
Future Northwest Climate

Puget Sound Snow Pack
Conditions are extreme around the
Sound. All sites are below 50
% of normal, and some locations less
than 10% of normal.

Four examples: snowpack tracking lowest on record

Hurricane Ridge:
winter snow is gone.
Lowsnow has only occurred
twice since 1960
(1977 & 2005).
April 2010
Feb2013
March2015
Photo by Bill Baccus,Olympic National Park

Low snowpack means low flows
Many of the major rivers draining to Puget Sounds are considered snowmelt-dominated.In these
systems,melting snowpack in the upper elevations maintains streamflows well into the summer
and recharges groundwater. Snowpack below normal means that low summer flows will begin
earlier and continue to drop below normal into the fall.
Encyclopediaof Puget Sound:
Section5. Seven-Day Low Flow
Basins moststrongly affected have high
elevation headwaters and no reservoirs.
Examples include:
•Dungeness River
•Nooksack River
•SnohomishRiver
Northwest River ForecastCenter
Flow Volume Projections
as percent of normal

Low flows can harm salmon
Hal Beecher of Washington Dept. of Fish and Wildlife:
Low snowpackand consequentsummerlow flow have a variety of
negativeeffects on salmonand trout in rivers flowing to PugetSound:
•Many species spendatleasta yeargrowing in upland waterbodies before going to sea. Lower
flows mean less space to live in and highertemperatures,so that fewer young fish go to the ocean
followinga dry summer,and fewerreturn as adults.
•When low flows extend into the upstream migration season,shallow watermay preventfish from
reachingtheirhome spawning grounds.High temperatures may havethe additionalimpactoflow
oxygen levelsand the spread of disease.
•Low flows may force salmon to spawn nearerthe middle ofthe riverchannel,so that subsequent
winterstorm and high flows may scourredds and kill eggs.
•Several species spawnin the spring. If low flow comes earlierthan normal,someeggs may be left
high and dry before the young can emerge to swim away.
•Mostocean-going salmonand trout migrate downstream in spring. Higherflows from spring
snowmeltusuallyhelp movethose fish.Low spring flows from low snowpack meansthey move
more slowly,putting them atgreaterrisk of predation.

Low inflows affect Puget Sound
circulation and quality
•Modeling shows that lower summer inflows change
circulation and reduce net outflows.
•Slower summer circulation can decrease oxygen levels
in the Sound to lower than normal levels.
•Climate change modeling demonstrates the effectof
reduced inflows on the Sound. By 2070,circulation
changes from low flows will significantly reduce oxygen.
These reductions may be as large as reductions from
doubling the population in the Puget Sound watershed.
•EcologyReport:Puget Sound and the Straits
Dissolved OxygenAssessment- Impacts of Current and
Future Nitrogen Sources and Climate Change through
2070

This information brought to you by:
•Paul Pickett, low flow trend indicator lead
•Markus Von Prause, water quality indicator lead
•MindyRoberts, Puget Sound modeling lead
•Tyler Burks, stream hydrology lead
•Jeff Marti, Water Resources drought policy lead
•Hal Beecher, WDFW fishery flow lead

Personal Field Impression
Fieldlog Weather Water column Aerial photos Ferry andSatellite Moorings
VashonGlacier is the last huge glacier that covered Puget
Sound and began to retreat14,000 year ago.
Deepchannels,
passages, andbays –
characteristic of glacial
fjords.
What is a glacier?
Let’s look at some glacial evidence inPuget Sound…
A mass of ice flowing like a very slow river
formed by the compaction of snow.
Howwas PugetSound Formed?
PugetSound is a glacial fjord that was carved by nearly mile-thick glaciers.
Sucia IslandGig Harbor and Fox Island
During the retreat, the
Vashon Glacier left
behind many clues in
the landscape.

Erratics –Largeboulders dropped by glaciers.
Glacial layers –Layersof sediment deposited by glaciers in many shoreline bluffs.
Glaciomarine drift –The mud, rocks, sand, silt, clay,
and gravelleft behind as glacial ice melted.
Photograph Credits: Brooke McIntyre 2014, Laura Hermanson 2014, http://www.openhousewhiterock.com/blog/entertainment/ever-been-to-white-rock-21,
http://gravelbeach.blogspot.com/2009_10_01_archive.html , https://evstnaturalhistory.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/bluff.jpg, http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/sea/pugetsound/tour/geology.html,
http://www.fhs.d211.org/departments/science/jadcock/glacier_webquest.htm, http://www.marlimillerphoto.com/faves110226-24.html
DiscoveryPark BluffFortEbey State Park
TulalipBay
CommencementBay
NearSan Juan Islands
Granite Erratic
White Rock, BC
Erratic in North
PugetSound

Climateand natural influencesbefore 3-24-2015
Summary:
Air temperatures remain above
normal, continuing an 11-month trend.
Precipitation levels have increased
since January.
Sunshine has been intermittent for the
past week but above normal for the
winter (the inverse of cloud cover).
River flows are higher across the
Puget Sound region, especially to the
north. Normally, the precipitation
would be captured in the snowpack.
PDO remains in the warm phase and
upwelling is above normal.
lowerhigher expected No data
Climate and natural influences are conditions that influence our marine waters, including weather,
rivers, and the adjacent ocean (previously called Weather). For an explanation of the figure, see:
http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/eap/mar_wat/weather.html, page 26.
Anomalies

We use a chartered float
plane to access our
monthly monitoring
stations.
We communicate data and
environmentalmarine
conditions using:
1. MarineWater
ConditionIndex
(MWCI)
2. EyesOverPuget
Sound (EOPS)
3. Anomaliesand
sourcedata
Ourlong-termmarinemonitoringstationsinWashington
Starthere
Isl.
.

Physical conditionstracked in statistically historic context
Feb. 2015:
Higher Temperature! LowerOxygenLowerSalinity
Redboxesshow
thatthe water
measuredis
warmerthan
anyof our
measurements
since 1989.
Explore profiles
atall stations
Month
Conditions were dominatedby warmwater associatedwiththe NE Pacific Oceanwarmsurfaceanomaly.
Starting inOctober,temperatures are the highest onour recordsince 1989. Oxygenandsalinities are
becoming lower.

a) PacificDecadalOscillationIndex(PDO,temperature) (explanation)
b) UpwellingIndex(anomalies)(Upwelling,lowoxygen) (explanation)
c) NorthPacificGyreOscillationIndex(NPGO,productivity) (explanation)
Theoceanaffectswaterquality: OceanClimateIndices
NPGO(x10)
PDO/UpwellingIndex
Three-year running average of PDO, Upwelling, and NPGO indices scores
.
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Ocean boundaryconditions are no longer favorable for water qualityin Puget Sound: (a) water is warming
(PDO), (b) upwellingoflow oxygen and high nutrient ocean water is again increasing(UpwellingIndex),
and (c) higher surface productivityalongthe coast (NPGO) is falling. Where are we headingnext?

Is the food web changing in Puget Sound?
Follow the experts
WebEx
Hypothesis!
Increasesin
nitrate
concentrations
couldbe caused
by a top-down
controlon
phytoplankton
biomass.
Is Noctiluca
a visible
harbingerof a
food web
change?
Hypothesis for combining a series of recent observations
affecting energy and material transfer to higher trophic levels
Arechangesin highertropic levelspart of a story of the low food web?

Summary: Aerial photography3-24-2015
Patchesof jellyfish are still present in finger inlets of South Sound. Waters show signs of
bloomsonly in confined, stratified bays(East Sound, Saratoga Passage). Otherwise, the
surfacewaters appear blue or carry dramatic loads of suspended sediment near rivers.
Start here
Mixing andFronts:
Strong tides mobilize nearshore sediment and show dramatic
patternsof mixing of sediment-rich water in the San Juan
Islands.
Debris:
Mostly lines of foamand small debris (eelgrass) forming
along tidal fronts.
Visible blooms:
Green-brown: Saratoga Passage(Whidbey Basin)
Red-brown: EastSound (OrcasIsland)
Jellyfish:
Sizablejellyfish patches still persist in southern inlets of South
Sound (Totten, Eld, and Budd Inlets).BloomDebrisFront
Suspendedsediment:
Largesuspended sediment plumes fromriversall around San
Juan Islands, Rosario Strait, Bellingham Bay, and PortSusan.
Suspended sediment near beaches during strong outgoing
tide.
Plume
DOT andEcology collaborateonmonitoring
1
Tidal flat in Cultus Bay (Whidbey Island)
1 2 10 12 17 18
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
16 17 201918
1 2 5 13 17 18
7 8

Straitof
Juan de Fuca
San Juan Islands
Padilla Bay
Main Basin
Hood Canal
South Sound
Whidbey Basin
Observation Maps:
Afternoonflight,photos 6-20
Sunny,high visibility,locallywindy
and cloudy
Flight Information:
Morningflight,photos 1-5
Sunny,mild,high visibility,clouds
11
10
Aerial photography
and navigation guide
6
Centraland NorthSound
SouthSound
7
12
5
Flight route and fuelingstop
17
9
18
3
2
1
4
13
14
19
16
Tides (Seattle) Feet Stage
2:24 AM 4.13 L
8:11 AM 11.59 H
2:50 PM -0.36 L
9:39 PM 10.81 H
15
20
8

Jellyfishpatches and debris lines.
Location: Kamilche Shores, Totten Inlet (South Sound),9:51 AM.
1 Aerial photography 3-24-2015 Navigate
jellyfish
jellyfish
jellyfish
jellyfish
Debris

2 NavigateAerial photography 3-24-2015
Long tidal front outlined by debris line.
Location: Oakland Bay(South Sound),9:54 AM.
DebrisFishpens

No noticeable activity.
Location: Mud Bay,Lopez Sound (San Juan Islands),11:21 AM.

4 Navigate
Aerial photography 3-24-2015
Large sediment-richwater being upwelledby tidal currents.
Location: Bird Rocks (San Juan Islands),11:24 AM.
sediment

Large sediment-richwater coming out of Guemes Channel.
Location: OffFidalgo Head (San Juan Islands),11:25 AM.
sediment
boat
boat

Long tidal eddy carrying sediment.
Location: West of BlakelyIsland (San Juan Islands),12:08 PM.
eddy
sediment

Distinct front between sediment-richwater and a red-brown bloom at entrance to East Sound.
Location: West of Obstruction Island (San Juan Islands),12:09 PM.
sediment
Bloom
boat

Distinct front between sediment-richwater and a red-brown bloom at entrance to East Sound.
Location: West of Obstruction Island (San Juan Islands),12:11 PM.
sediment
Bloom

Strong tidal currents outlined by fine suspended sediments show structures of turbulence and shear.
Location: Patos Island (San Juan Islands),12:19 PM.
sediment

Strong tidal currents outlined by fine suspended sediments show structures of turbulence and shear.
Location: Lookingat GulfIslands in Canada (San Juan Islands),12:20 PM.
sediment

Sediment-richwater from the Nooksack River.
Location: East ofLummi Reservation (Bellingham Bay),1:27 PM.
sediment
Plume

Sediment-richNooksack River plume with internal waves and ship track.
Location: Bellingham Bay(Bellingham Bay),1:29 PM.
12 Navigate
Plume
boat

Front separating water from Bellingham Bay and Samish Bay.
Location: OffLarrabee State Park (Bellingham Bay),2:01 PM.
sediment
Debris

Fine lines of sediment rich water being advected through large gullies without mixing.
Location: PadillaBay(North Sound),2:06 PM.
14 Navigate
sediment
sediment
ship

15 Navigate
Mudflats with gullies and patches of eelgrass.
Location: From above Bay View, (Padilla Bay),2:08 PM.

16 Navigate
Sediment-richwater entering the Swinomish Channel flowing southward.
Location: La Conner (WhidbeyBasin),2:11 PM.
sediment
Plume

17 Navigate
Long front of the Skagit River crossing the entire bay.
Location: Skagit Bay(WhidbeyBasin),2:14 PM.
Debris

Plumes of a murky sediment-richwater showing different tidal fronts.
Location: Across from Warm Beach, Port Susan (WhidbeyBasin),2:47 PM.
18 Navigate
sediment
sediment
Debris
Debris

19 Navigate
Plume of sediment-richwater near beach during outgoing tide.
Location: Stretch Island (Case Inlet),4:52 PM.
sediment
sediment

20 Navigate
Sediment-richwater near beach during outgoing tide.
Location: Near Dougall Point on Harstine Island,Case Inlet (South Sound),4:53 PM.
sediment
sediment

NorthSound/SanJuan Islands
Date: 3-24-2015
CentralSound
Aerial photography observations in Central SoundQualitative aerial observer map during transit Navigate
5
6
10
9
11
12
4
7
8
13
15
17
14
18
Numbers on map refer to picture numbers for spatial reference
3 16

Date: 3-24-2015
Qualitative aerial observer map during transit
Numbers on map refer to picture numbers for spatial reference
Navigate
SouthSound
1
2
20
19

Legendto map annotations
Comments:
Maps are producedby observers during and
after flights. They are intendedto give an
approximate reconstructionofthe surface
conditions onscales that connect to and
overlapwithsatellite images inthe sectionthat
follows.
Debris:
Debris canbe distinguished into natural and
anthropogenic debris floating at the surface
sensu Moore andAllen(2000). The majority of
organic debris inPuget Soundis natural and
mixedwithdiscardedman-made pieces of
plastic,wood,etc. Fromthe plane,we cannot
differentiatethe quality of debris at the surface
andtherefore,call it for reasons of practicality
just “debris”.
S.L. Moore,M. J. Allen. 2000. Distribution of
Anthropogenicand Natural Debris on the
Mainland Shelf of the Southern California Bight.
Marine Pollution Bulletin,40(1): 83–88.
Navigate

Current Conditions:
Cold water from WhidbeyBasin moves into Puget
Sound at the Triple Junction;associated with
moderate levels of chlorophyll fluorescence.
Increased turbidityseen throughout the Strait of
Georgia.
23 March 201523 March 2015
Brandon Sackmann
Contact: bsackmann@integral-corp.com
Ferry and satelliteobservations3-24-2015
Starthere
Current Conditions:
Isothermalconditions appear across Central Basin
and the Straits with little signs of phytoplankton
growth.

A. Phytoplankton started to increase during a mild and sunny period in February, butconcentrationshave
dropped acrossthe main part of Central Basin and the Strait of Juan de Fuca.
B. Isothermalsurfacewater near 10.5 °C persists for more than a month.
Shipyard
TheVictoria Clipper IV carries sensors in its sea chest. The sensors allow us to get
surfacetransects of temperature, chlorophyll, salinity, and other bio-optical
measurements between Seattle and Victoria, BC twice per day.
Ferry and satelliteobservations3-24-2015
Shipyard
Maintenance
Maintenance
Maintenance
Maintenance
B.
A.
14 14 14 14

Mooring observationsand trends
03-12-2015 to 03-25-2015
2-6 m depth
Dissolvedoxygenis not
measured.
12-16 m depth
These plots show the
probability of
observationsover the
pasttwo-week period.
High probability shown in
warmcolors.
Left Panels: Density is
defined by salinity and
temperature.
Right Panel: Dissolved
oxygen concentration in
relation to salinity.
At the Mukilteo mooring,water properties appear somewhat influenced bysoutherlywinds and
river flows until mid-March. This is when a shift in wind direction mayhave contributed to lower
salinityand higher temperature,tidalheight,and river flows. Afterwards,trends in temperature
and salinitycoincide with changes in tidal height and wind speed,but not river flows.
Data are not available
for this time period.
Look for themnext
month.

01-18-2015 to 03-24-2015
Click on icon to view real-time
data of the moorings
Our mooringstation in Mukilteo is located
in WhidbeyBasin near Everett. It is also
located at the transition between
Possession and CentralSounds at a depth
that is influenced bythe Skagit and
Snohomish river discharges,prevailing
winds,and tidal mixing.
As the largest regional contributor of
freshwater to Puget Sound,understanding
the timingand magnitude ofthe Skagit
River flow is important.
We present data ofdailymeans for the
past 31 days. Data are plotted in Pacific
Standard Time. Wind dataare from Paine
Field in Everett. River flow data are from
USGS.

Mukilteo2010 to 2015
Pleasenote that data are provisional. Data are in GMT.
At the Mukilteo mooring,we use the near-bottom
sensor (12-16 m deep) to measure significant inter-
annual variabilityin temperature,salinity,and
dissolved oxygen.
Inter-annual variabilityis shown over a 5-year
period. All three variables showstrongseasonality.
Water around the mooringcontinues to be warmer
and generallyfresher than past several years. The
amount ofdissolved oxygen is roughlysimilar to
2010, 2011, and 2013.
Seasonally,variabilityofeach parameter remains
minimal from Januaryto March.

Accessmooring
data:
ftp://www.ecy.wa.gov/ea
p/Mooring_Raw/Puget_S
ound/
Ferryand satellite :
Suzan.Pool@ecy.wa.gov
Get data from Ecology’sMarine MonitoringPrograms
Long–Term
MonitoringNetwork
Real–Time
SensorNetwork
Accesscore
monitoringdata:
http://www.ecy.wa.gov/a
pps/eap/marinewq/mwda
taset.asp
christopher.krembs@ecy.w
a.gov
Ecology’s long-termmarine
monitoring stations
Ferrytrack
Riverand Stream WaterQuality
Monitoring
http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/eap/fw_riv
/rv_main.html
Discontinued (fundingcuts)

You maysubscribe or unsubscribe to the Eyes Over Puget Sound email listservby going to:
http://listserv.wa.gov/cgi-bin/wa?A0=ECOLOGY-EYES-OVER-PUGET-SOUND
Many thanks to our business partners: Clipper Navigations,SwantownMarina,andKenmore Air.
We are looking forfeedbackto improve ourproducts.
Dr. ChristopherKrembs
christopher.krembs@ecy.wa.gov
Marine Monitoring Unit
EnvironmentalAssessment Program
WA Department of Ecology

Eops 2015 3_24

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