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Enterprise Risk Management:
          Operational Risk and COSO
             Prepared and Presented by:
                      Group 1


                            Group Members: Manu              Link to Glossary
                   Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
12/19/2012                                                                      1
                  Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
COSO Framework for Operational Risk Management

   ERM INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK

                          Group Members: Manu Prakaash,
12/19/2012              Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati   2
                               TERI University, New Delhi
COSO
ā€¢ Acronym for Committee for Sponsoring
  Organizations
ā€¢ Enterprise Risk Management- Integrated
  Framework by COSO: Aims to provide for the
  need for an enterprise risk management
  framework, providing key principles and
  concepts, a common language, and clear
  direction and guidance

                 Group Members: Manu Prakaash,
12/19/2012     Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati   3
                      TERI University, New Delhi
Operational Risk-COSO re-examined
ā€¢ Written by Peyman Mestchian, Mikhail
  Makarov and Bahram Mirzai
ā€¢ An analytical build-up as an answer to the
  criticisms given by Ali Samad-Khan
  (President, OpRisk Adisory)     against the
  application of COSO framework to operational
  risk


                         Group Members: Manu
                Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
12/19/2012                                                4
               Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
Criticisms offered by Ali Samad-Khan
ā€¢ The definition of risk used by COSO is flawed
ā€¢ Likelihood-Impact Risk Assessment is flawed
ā€¢ Methods prescribed by COSO are highly
  subjective, and only risk assessment based on
  historic losses is valid
ā€¢ Risk assessment using COSO approach is too
  complex and resource intense

                         Group Members: Manu
                Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
12/19/2012                                                5
               Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
Justifications or Counter-Criticisms!
ā€¢ The criticism about Operational Riskā€™s
  definition (criticisms 1 and 2) is based on:
Risk=Likelihood x Impact
ā€¢ There is no reference in COSO for using this
  formula to measure risk
ā€¢ COSO uses Value at Risk or Capital at Risk
  concepts as measures of risk:
Cost of Risk=Expected Loss + Cost of Capital
                         Group Members: Manu
                Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
12/19/2012                                                6
               Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
Importance of Evaluated CoR
ā€¢ Crucial to perform cost-benefit analysis within
  an integrated operational risk management
  framework




                           Group Members: Manu
                  Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
12/19/2012                                                  7
                 Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
Likelihood-Impact Based Risk Assessment
ā€¢ Introduced in MIL-STD-882A                Military safety standard, by US
Department of Defense

ā€¢ According to this approach, for each risk the frequency of
occurrence (likelihood) & the worst credible outcome(impact) are
assessed & captured into a likelihood- impact matrix. Allows an
entity to understand the extent to which potential events might
impact objectives

ā€¢ Integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches.

ā€¢ E.g.- CRISIL Ratings provides the most reliable opinions on risk by
combining its understanding of risk and the science of building risk
frameworks, with a contextual understanding of business. It follows
the Basel II guidelines to guard against the types of financial and
operational risks banks face.
                         Group Members: Manu Prakaash,
12/19/2012             Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati          8
                              TERI University, New Delhi
Risk Analysis
Risk                    Risk                                     Risk
Assessment              Management                               Monitoring



                                                                      Process
      Identification               Control It
                                                                      Level


                                  Share or                             Activity
      Measurement
                                  Transfer It                          Level


                                 Diversify or
      Prioritization                                                 Entity Level
                                 Avoid It

                         Group Members: Manu Prakaash,
12/19/2012             Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati                      9
                              TERI University, New Delhi
Group Members: Manu Prakaash,
12/19/2012   Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati   10
                    TERI University, New Delhi
Group Members: Manu Prakaash,
12/19/2012   Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati   11
                    TERI University, New Delhi
Example: Call Center Risk Assessment




                        Group Members: Manu
               Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
 12/19/2012                                              12
              Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
Causes of Operational Risk




                      Group Members: Manu Prakaash,
12/19/2012          Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati   13
                           TERI University, New Delhi
Operational Risk Failures
ā€¢ On February 6, 2002, Allied Irish Banks (read more) reported a fraud
  in its Baltimore-based subsidiary Allfirst. According to the
  report, around 1997 John Rusnak, one of their internal
  traders, lost a large amount of money. For five years, Mr. Rusnak
  covered his tracks by writing non-existent options and booking
  their equally non-existent profits as income. Compound interest
  being what it is, Mr. Rusnakā€™s problems and, hence, the
  bankā€™s, eventually grew to $700 million dollars. One Monday
  morning, Mr. Rusnak failed to show up for work and the entire
  fraud collapsed.

ā€¢ Barings Bank (read more) had collapsed ten years previously and
  Allied Irish Bank was, at that time, Irelandā€™s second largest. The
  story of the Barings is one of a rogue trader that alone caused
  the bankruptcy of a supposed solid bank.
                          Group Members: Manu Prakaash,
12/19/2012              Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati     14
                               TERI University, New Delhi
Case-Study




     Enterprise Risk Management: Managing Risk to better exploit risk
     opportunities

     ERM AT ALLSTATE

                                     Group Members: Manu
                            Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
  12/19/2012                                                            15
                           Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
Brief Company Profile
ā€¢ Allstate was founded in 1931 as part of
  Sears, Roebuck & Co., and became a publicly
  traded company in 1993
ā€¢ It is the nationā€™s largest publicly held personal
  lines insurer
ā€¢ A Fortune 100 company, with $130 billion in
  total assets, Allstate sells 13 major lines of
  insurance, including auto, property, life and
  commercial
                    Group Members: Manu Prakaash,
12/19/2012        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati   16
                         TERI University, New Delhi
A Novel Approach in the Industry
ā€¢ Allstate combined its scholastic modeling and
  operational governance to produce an ERM
  for the organization
ā€¢ Over time, Allstate worked to align its
  analytics with corporate governance and
  decision making activities


                  Group Members: Manu Prakaash,
12/19/2012      Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati   17
                       TERI University, New Delhi
Allstateā€™s ERM Framework:
               Culture/Code of Ethics




                             Group Members: Manu
                    Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
12/19/2012                                                    18
                   Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
Allstateā€™s ERM Approach: Advantages
1. It allows the company to set a quantitatively
   based risk/reward threshold across its
   businesses
2. Management can evaluate how lines of
   business compare to each other vis-Ć -vis
   capital consumption
3. Provides solid new measurements to inform
   business decision making
                          Group Members: Manu
                 Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
12/19/2012                                                 19
                Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
Allstateā€™s Successful ERM: Benefits
ā€¢ Helps managers take risk- and capital- related
  decisions,       such      as    reinsurance
  purchasing, asset/liability management, risk
  limit setting and monitoring, and capital
  allocation and pricing
ā€¢ Starts small, focuses on key issues first and
  consistently build value

                          Group Members: Manu
                 Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
12/19/2012                                                 20
                Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
ERM Process
1. Identify top risks
2. Build a consensus between risk ā€œownersā€ and
   management on the risk limit for the
   quantifiable risks
ā€¢ Allstate uses its own metrics, rather than
  relying solely on rating agencies to determine
  overall capital needs as well as capital
  allocations and levels within the various
  businesses
                          Group Members: Manu
                 Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
12/19/2012                                                 21
                Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
Growing with ERM
ā€¢ Initially, ERM was used only for Allstate
  Protection, its property/casualty business
ā€¢ Now implemented in Allstate Investment and
  others
ā€¢ Allstate now operates a Risk Opportunity
  Forum-members analyze suggestions for
  greatest potential
ā€¢ Repeats risk assessment every 2 years
                         Group Members: Manu
                Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
12/19/2012                                                22
               Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
References
ā€¢ COSO Executive Summary:
  http://www.coso.org/Publications/ERM/COSO_ERM_E
  xecutiveSummary.pdf
ā€¢ Basel Standards: http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbsca.htm
ā€¢ Case Study:
  http://www.towersperrin.com/tp/getwebcachedoc?we
  bc=TILL/USA/2006/200608/Allstate.pdf
ā€¢ Allstate website: http://www.allstatenewsroom.com
ā€¢ CRISIL Rating: www.crisil.com
ā€¢ Other references: www.wikipedia.org
                           Group Members: Manu
                  Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
12/19/2012                                                  23
                 Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
Thank You!
             Questions?



                                    Group Members: Manu
                           Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
12/19/2012                                                           24
                          Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New
Glossary
1. Operational Risk: The risk of loss resulting
   from inadequate or failed business, people
   and systems or from external events                              (As defined by the
      Basel Committee)


2. Risk Tolerance: A measure of the degree of
   uncertainty that an investor is willing to
   accept in respect of the negative changes to
   its business or assets

                                   Group Members: Manu
                          Prakaash,        Rashi Saxena, Saurabh
12/19/2012                                                                         25
                         Saha, Urvi Gulati   TERI University, New

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Enterprise risk management

  • 1. Enterprise Risk Management: Operational Risk and COSO Prepared and Presented by: Group 1 Group Members: Manu Link to Glossary Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 1 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 2. COSO Framework for Operational Risk Management ERM INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK Group Members: Manu Prakaash, 12/19/2012 Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati 2 TERI University, New Delhi
  • 3. COSO ā€¢ Acronym for Committee for Sponsoring Organizations ā€¢ Enterprise Risk Management- Integrated Framework by COSO: Aims to provide for the need for an enterprise risk management framework, providing key principles and concepts, a common language, and clear direction and guidance Group Members: Manu Prakaash, 12/19/2012 Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati 3 TERI University, New Delhi
  • 4. Operational Risk-COSO re-examined ā€¢ Written by Peyman Mestchian, Mikhail Makarov and Bahram Mirzai ā€¢ An analytical build-up as an answer to the criticisms given by Ali Samad-Khan (President, OpRisk Adisory) against the application of COSO framework to operational risk Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 4 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 5. Criticisms offered by Ali Samad-Khan ā€¢ The definition of risk used by COSO is flawed ā€¢ Likelihood-Impact Risk Assessment is flawed ā€¢ Methods prescribed by COSO are highly subjective, and only risk assessment based on historic losses is valid ā€¢ Risk assessment using COSO approach is too complex and resource intense Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 5 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 6. Justifications or Counter-Criticisms! ā€¢ The criticism about Operational Riskā€™s definition (criticisms 1 and 2) is based on: Risk=Likelihood x Impact ā€¢ There is no reference in COSO for using this formula to measure risk ā€¢ COSO uses Value at Risk or Capital at Risk concepts as measures of risk: Cost of Risk=Expected Loss + Cost of Capital Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 6 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 7. Importance of Evaluated CoR ā€¢ Crucial to perform cost-benefit analysis within an integrated operational risk management framework Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 7 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 8. Likelihood-Impact Based Risk Assessment ā€¢ Introduced in MIL-STD-882A Military safety standard, by US Department of Defense ā€¢ According to this approach, for each risk the frequency of occurrence (likelihood) & the worst credible outcome(impact) are assessed & captured into a likelihood- impact matrix. Allows an entity to understand the extent to which potential events might impact objectives ā€¢ Integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches. ā€¢ E.g.- CRISIL Ratings provides the most reliable opinions on risk by combining its understanding of risk and the science of building risk frameworks, with a contextual understanding of business. It follows the Basel II guidelines to guard against the types of financial and operational risks banks face. Group Members: Manu Prakaash, 12/19/2012 Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati 8 TERI University, New Delhi
  • 9. Risk Analysis Risk Risk Risk Assessment Management Monitoring Process Identification Control It Level Share or Activity Measurement Transfer It Level Diversify or Prioritization Entity Level Avoid It Group Members: Manu Prakaash, 12/19/2012 Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati 9 TERI University, New Delhi
  • 10. Group Members: Manu Prakaash, 12/19/2012 Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati 10 TERI University, New Delhi
  • 11. Group Members: Manu Prakaash, 12/19/2012 Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati 11 TERI University, New Delhi
  • 12. Example: Call Center Risk Assessment Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 12 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 13. Causes of Operational Risk Group Members: Manu Prakaash, 12/19/2012 Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati 13 TERI University, New Delhi
  • 14. Operational Risk Failures ā€¢ On February 6, 2002, Allied Irish Banks (read more) reported a fraud in its Baltimore-based subsidiary Allfirst. According to the report, around 1997 John Rusnak, one of their internal traders, lost a large amount of money. For five years, Mr. Rusnak covered his tracks by writing non-existent options and booking their equally non-existent profits as income. Compound interest being what it is, Mr. Rusnakā€™s problems and, hence, the bankā€™s, eventually grew to $700 million dollars. One Monday morning, Mr. Rusnak failed to show up for work and the entire fraud collapsed. ā€¢ Barings Bank (read more) had collapsed ten years previously and Allied Irish Bank was, at that time, Irelandā€™s second largest. The story of the Barings is one of a rogue trader that alone caused the bankruptcy of a supposed solid bank. Group Members: Manu Prakaash, 12/19/2012 Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati 14 TERI University, New Delhi
  • 15. Case-Study Enterprise Risk Management: Managing Risk to better exploit risk opportunities ERM AT ALLSTATE Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 15 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 16. Brief Company Profile ā€¢ Allstate was founded in 1931 as part of Sears, Roebuck & Co., and became a publicly traded company in 1993 ā€¢ It is the nationā€™s largest publicly held personal lines insurer ā€¢ A Fortune 100 company, with $130 billion in total assets, Allstate sells 13 major lines of insurance, including auto, property, life and commercial Group Members: Manu Prakaash, 12/19/2012 Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati 16 TERI University, New Delhi
  • 17. A Novel Approach in the Industry ā€¢ Allstate combined its scholastic modeling and operational governance to produce an ERM for the organization ā€¢ Over time, Allstate worked to align its analytics with corporate governance and decision making activities Group Members: Manu Prakaash, 12/19/2012 Rashi Saxena, Saurabh Saha, Urvi Gulati 17 TERI University, New Delhi
  • 18. Allstateā€™s ERM Framework: Culture/Code of Ethics Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 18 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 19. Allstateā€™s ERM Approach: Advantages 1. It allows the company to set a quantitatively based risk/reward threshold across its businesses 2. Management can evaluate how lines of business compare to each other vis-Ć -vis capital consumption 3. Provides solid new measurements to inform business decision making Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 19 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 20. Allstateā€™s Successful ERM: Benefits ā€¢ Helps managers take risk- and capital- related decisions, such as reinsurance purchasing, asset/liability management, risk limit setting and monitoring, and capital allocation and pricing ā€¢ Starts small, focuses on key issues first and consistently build value Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 20 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 21. ERM Process 1. Identify top risks 2. Build a consensus between risk ā€œownersā€ and management on the risk limit for the quantifiable risks ā€¢ Allstate uses its own metrics, rather than relying solely on rating agencies to determine overall capital needs as well as capital allocations and levels within the various businesses Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 21 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 22. Growing with ERM ā€¢ Initially, ERM was used only for Allstate Protection, its property/casualty business ā€¢ Now implemented in Allstate Investment and others ā€¢ Allstate now operates a Risk Opportunity Forum-members analyze suggestions for greatest potential ā€¢ Repeats risk assessment every 2 years Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 22 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 23. References ā€¢ COSO Executive Summary: http://www.coso.org/Publications/ERM/COSO_ERM_E xecutiveSummary.pdf ā€¢ Basel Standards: http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbsca.htm ā€¢ Case Study: http://www.towersperrin.com/tp/getwebcachedoc?we bc=TILL/USA/2006/200608/Allstate.pdf ā€¢ Allstate website: http://www.allstatenewsroom.com ā€¢ CRISIL Rating: www.crisil.com ā€¢ Other references: www.wikipedia.org Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 23 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 24. Thank You! Questions? Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 24 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New
  • 25. Glossary 1. Operational Risk: The risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed business, people and systems or from external events (As defined by the Basel Committee) 2. Risk Tolerance: A measure of the degree of uncertainty that an investor is willing to accept in respect of the negative changes to its business or assets Group Members: Manu Prakaash, Rashi Saxena, Saurabh 12/19/2012 25 Saha, Urvi Gulati TERI University, New