The document summarizes a model that was created to estimate how many electric vehicles (EVs) would need to be sold in New Zealand by 2021 in order to reach the government's target of 64,000 EVs on the road. The model found that sales would need to increase from 0.0002% of new and used car sales to either 13% within 3 years, 15% within 4 years, or 17% within 5 years in order to hit the target. The document then questions why the government's EV policy may not be as successful as the iPhone, noting some of the factors that contributed to the iPhone's success.

1. 64,000 EVs on the Road
by 2021
(a great aspiration)
Dr. David Rees
Founding Partner – Synergia Ltd
Research Affiliate – Centre for Sustainability University of Otago

2. The Government wants to emulate Apple
EV Target iphone Sales

3. To find out how big, we built a model
64,000 EVs by 2021 requires shifting from
0.0002% to:
13% of new and used car sales within 3 years or,
15% within 4 years or,
17% within 5 years

4. Why the Apple iphone is so successful, and the Govt’s EV policy
won’t be?
Social
networks
Product networks
(complementary
products)
Design led
easy to use
product
Status
The 1st ‘hip
pocket’ computer
Loyalty
Linked to and
added to what
we already had The app
store
RUC until EVs
are 2% of LV
fleet
Govt bulk
purchasing
Public charging
infrastructure
Information &
promotion
campaign
Information &
promotion
campaign
Information &
promotion
campaign
Bus and high
occupancy
lanes
Depreciation
and FBT
HAVE
DOTHINK THINK
HAVE
DO

5. THANK YOU