Drivers and transitions for global transport: preliminary results from an international Delphi study. Janet Stephenson, Debbie Hopkins, Adam Doering Energy Cultures II Project, Centre for Sustainability November 2013

1. Drivers and transitions for global
transport: preliminary results from
an international Delphi study
Janet Stephenson, Debbie Hopkins, Adam Doering
Energy Cultures II Project, Centre for Sustainability
November 2013

2. Background
A workstream of Energy Cultures 2 research programme:
“…what is possible with new technologies and practices for
energy efficiency and conservation?”
The current fossil fuel-dominated transport system:
– contributed 22% of total GHG emissions in 2010
– is vulnerable to shocks in oil supply and pricing
These twin challenges of climate change and oil insecurity can
be addressed, in part, by a global transition to low-carbon,
energy-efficient (“sustainable”) transport systems.

3. Method: The Delphi Technique
An iterative, multi-stage process, bringing
together expert opinions on complex topics
A panel of global experts:
Academia (n=18), industry (n=3), government
(n=4), consultancy (n=3), NGO (n=1), other
(n=1).
Fields of expertise included: renewable energy,
transport policy, demand modelling, material
technology, freight, transport economics,
behaviour

4. Stages
• Round Zero: Skype-based interviews with 6
key panel members
• Round One: A qualitative internet-based
survey sent to 30 panel members, 23
responses received
• Round Two: A quantitative internet-based
survey sent to 30 panel members, 22
responses received

5. Characteristics of a sustainable
transport system

6. Characteristics of a sustainable
transport system

7. Change Trends
Likelihood of becoming widespread within 10 years
1 = low, 5 = high
PotentialtotransformthetransportsystemawayfromBAUinthelongterm
2
3
4 51
1
2
4
5
A
C B
DF
E
H
G
J I
K
High – High:
A : Increasing investment in public transport
B: Uptake of travel substitution technologies
C: Increasing public environmental concern
D: Uptake of efficient cars
E: Uptake of electric vehicles
F: Uptake of active transport
Low potential to transform
High likelihood of becoming
widespread:
I: Decreasing youth car ownership
J: Uptake of shared personal transport
K: Decreasing youth car licensing
High potential to transform
Low likelihood of becoming
widespread:
G: Uptake of autonomous vehicles
H: Substantial reduction in VKT

8. Discontinuities
Likelihood of occurring within 10 years
1 = low, 5 = high
PotentialtotransformthetransportsystemawayfromBAUinthelongterm
2
3
4 51
1
2
4
5
AC
B
D
F
H
G
J
I
K
High – High:
A: Political instability in oil-rich
countries
B: Breakthrough in cheap
battery/storage technologies
C: Increased public and political
concern about climate change
Low potential to transform
High likelihood of occurring:
D: Geopolitical interventions in
oil-rich countries
E: Failure of Evs to be adopted as
readily as expected
High potential to transform
Low likelihood of occurring:
F: Global price on carbon
G: Acute resource scarcity
H: Significant global economic decline
E
Low - Low:
I: Political instability in China and/or
India
J: Readily available oil sources found
K: Breakthrough in nuclear fusion

9. Material
culture
PracticesNorms
Transport
Culture
Changing transport cultures
Do
Have
Think

10. Changes in material culture…

11. Changes in practices…

12. Changes in norms…
collaborative cultures

13. Where & how these are coalescing
to become transport transitions
Material
culture
PracticesNorms
Masdar’s EC of Experimentation
London’s EC of Diversity
Beijing’s EC of Speed

14. Conclusions
• Agreement over the need for transition to a
‘sustainable transport system’
• Evidence of changing transport energy
cultures globally
• Potential for significant future change
• Round 3 will invite ideas on relevance to NZ
• This will inform a New Zealand-based Delphi
in 2014

15. Questions
Janet Stephenson, Debbie Hopkins, Adam Doering
Janet.stephenson@otago.ac.nz