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Economy jan 22 snapshot web

Metro Atlanta's economy is recovering strongly from the pandemic, with job levels now only slightly below pre-pandemic levels. However, inflation is high, driven by increased transportation costs, and wages have not kept pace. The labor market is extremely tight, with many job openings but few job seekers. Housing costs remain high due to low inventory levels and rents are increasing. While most sectors have rebounded, employment in food and accommodation remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Financial insecurity persists for many in the region.

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regional impact + local relevance + A Quick Look At Metro Atlanta’s Economy Mike Carnathan Atlanta Regional Commission mcarnathan@atlantaregional.org
regional impact + local relevance + Key Points/Executive Summary • Atlanta’s job market recovery is one of the strongest among our peers. • Despite this recovery, there is still a good amount of financial distress out there. • Employment in the Food/Accommodation Sector is still down 13 percent from pre-pandemic levels. • Inflation in metro Atlanta is highest among its peer metro areas, driven by sky-rocketing motor fuel and personal vehicle costs. • Wages have increased in some sectors—primarily lower-wage, consumer-focused industries. But age growth has not kept up with inflation. • Nationally, the ratio of unemployed workers to job openings is at historic lows (meaning there are more job openings than job seekers), and the quit rate - workers who are voluntarily leaving their job- is at historic highs. So expect continued disruption in the labor market. • Home prices (driven by extremely low inventory) are at all-time highs….as are rents.
regional impact + local relevance + What Are We Worrying About? According to data from Google Trends, the past year saw vast increases in searches about “labor shortage,” “remote work,” and “inflation.” This one simple chart nicely sums up the state of the economy as we head into 2022.
regional impact + local relevance + Perceptions About the Economy: Financial Insecurity 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Pay with Cash, Check or Debit Pay with Credit Card Would Borrow Money Would Sell or Pawn Something Would Not Be Able to Pay Now DK How Would You Handle a $400 Emergency? All respondents ~28% Since this Snapshot is about the economy, let’s first take the pulse of our residents. Our Metro Atlanta Speaks (MAS) survey asked them in August last year about how they'd handle an unexpected emergency that cost $400 – a standard question in both MAS and national surveys to assess levels of overall financial distress. As the chart shows, roughly 28 percent of respondents would struggle to pay. Source: 2021 Metro Atlanta Speaks 1 in 4 Atlanta Residents Would Struggle with a $400 Emergency
regional impact + local relevance + Housing Insecurity 17.3% 69.7% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Slightly or Not At All Very or Moderately Confidence in ability to make next mortgage/rent payment When asked in Metro Atlanta Speaks how confident they were in their ability to pay next month’s rent or mortgage, 17 percent of respondents indicated that they were only “slightly” or “not at all” confident. Source: 2021 Metro Atlanta Speaks NOTE: Additional 13 percent of respondents either had no answer or did have a housing payment
regional impact + local relevance + Remote Work 21.0% 37.2% 41.7% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% Occassionally Most or all of the time (or always have) Not at all Extent to which you are working at home because of Covid-19 pandemic (for those who are employed full or part time) And since Google Trends revealed that remote work was top-of-mind for many, here is how MAS respondents answered about their ability to work from home. “Not at all” was in the minority, with just 42 percent of respondents indicating that they had not worked from home during the pandemic. This share is down from two-thirds as of the August, 2020 survey. Source: 2021 Metro Atlanta Speaks
regional impact + local relevance + We’re Almost There* - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Total Employment: Metro Atlanta * To Attaining Pre-Pandemic Levels (February 2020) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics ( -4,900 Since February 2020) Metro Atlanta's job base is now down only 4,900 jobs when compared to February 2020, and only 38,000 jobs lower than the employment peak of December 2019.
regional impact + local relevance + Metro Atlanta’s Employment Growth Mostly In-line With Nation’s -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Year Over Year Percent Change in Total Employment Metro Atlanta US As the above chart shows, metro Atlanta year-over-year change has mostly tracked with that of the nation’s change since the beginning of the pandemic. For most of the 2010s, however, metro Atlanta’s employment growth had been stronger than that of the nation’s. It should be noted though that since the summer of 2021, metro Atlanta’s employment growth has slightly out-performed the nation. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
regional impact + local relevance + Metro Atlanta Ranks Relatively High In Job Market Recovery -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Austin Dallas Denver Atlanta Seattle Washington DC Houston Boston Minneapolis Los Angeles New York Percent Change, Feb 2020 to Nov 2021 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Although metro Atlanta still hasn’t recovered all the job losses experienced during the pandemic, our job recovery ranks fairly well compared to that of some of our peer metros.
regional impact + local relevance + Most Major Job Sectors Are Up Since Pandemic -14.0% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Manufacturing Construction Trade, Transportation, Utilities Information Finance Professional, Business Education, Health Leisure, Hospitality Other Services Metro Atlanta: % Change, Pre-Pandemic (February 2020) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics All of the major job sectors in metro Atlanta are now trending above their February 2020 levels, except for “Other Services.” Put another way, ALL of the job losses since February 2020 are concentrated in “Other Services,” which is a "high-touch" job sector that includes businesses that typically require proximity to other people (such as hair and nail salons, religious services, and laundry services).
regional impact + local relevance + Comparing Metro Atlanta Across Sectors -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Atlanta Austin Dallas Denver Houston Las Vegas Los Angeles Minneapolis Orlando Percent Change in Employees, February 2020 – November 2021 Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Transport, Warehousing, Util Information Finance Professional/Business Education/Health Accommodation/Food Food Service/Drinking Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Metro areas were selected based on whether they had comparable data for the 10 chosen sectors, so there are obvious metro areas that weren’t included because BLS didn’t report comparable data. There is a lot to unpack in this chart, but the headline is that when looking at some of the major job sectors across peer metros, growth in metro Atlanta compares favorably to almost all other metros shown above. As with those metros, the heaviest job losses in metro Atlanta were concentrated in the Accommodation/Food Sector, which includes Food Service/Drinking Establishments (also shown above, separately). But, out of the 10 sectors charted, metro Atlanta has experienced losses in only three. Austin is the only other selected metro with job losses in so few sectors.
regional impact + local relevance + Quick Look At Inflation (Yikes) 6.2% 7.9% 6.3% 5.3% 5.5% 6.1% 5.4% 5.7% 4.3% 5.6% 7.1% 3.8% 6.5% 7.5% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% United States Atlanta Baltimore Chicago Detroit Houston Los Angeles Miam New York Philadelphia Phoenix San Francisco Seattle St. Louis Year-Over-Year Change in Inflation (October to October) 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Along with labor shortages, rising inflation has been one of the biggest economic headlines of the past year. And, as the chart shows, metro Atlanta’s inflation rate was the highest last year across selected metro areas with comparable data.
regional impact + local relevance + Inflationary Increase Driven By Transportation 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 All Items Food Alcoholic Beverages Shelter Fuels and utilities (Housing) Household Furnishings Apparel Private Transportation Motor Fuel Vehicle Insurance Medical Care Recreation Education and Communication Other Goods and Services Metro Atlanta: Components of Inflation (Year-Over-Year Change, Oct 2020- Oct 2021) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics As can be seen, motor fuel experienced the largest price increase, by far, of all the major components of inflation in Metro Atlanta.
regional impact + local relevance + Quick Look At Labor Shortages (Yikes) The other major headline of the national economy over the past year is the sheer intensity of labor shortages. While we don’t have separate comparable data for metro Atlanta, you can see that the number of unemployed persons per job opening is at all-time lows. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
regional impact + local relevance + Quick Look At Labor Shortages (Yikes) At the same time that we have a historically low ratio of the unemployed persons to job openings, we also have a historically high rate of “quits”, or workers voluntarily leaving their jobs. A high rate of quits usually means that workers feel confident in their ability to find a better job and suggest that this labor market is the most worker-friendly one seen in decades. So, it is these two factors combined that have caused the high levels of labor disruption. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
regional impact + local relevance + (Almost) Everybody is Making More Money 7.9% 6.4% 6.0% 13.3% 6.9% 7.8% 7.9% 8.7% 6.2% 9.0% 8.9% 5.8% 6.3% 1.6% 2.0% 3.1% 10.6% 0.9% 6.2% 10.0% 8.6% 6.1% 6.8% 6.3% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% National Wages Atlanta, GA Austin, TX Dallas, TX Denver, CO Houston, TX Las Vegas, NV Los Angeles, CA Minneapolis, MN Orlando, FL Boston, MA Washington DC Percent Change in Wages Metro Area Wage Growth Comparison Pre-Pandemic and Pandemic Percent Change Pandemic (Feb 2020 to Nov 2021) % Change Pre-Pandemic (Jul 2018 to Feb 2020) National wage growth has grown marginally from 6.3 percent in a 19-month pre-pandemic period to almost 8 percent in the past 19 months. Atlanta lagged the nation in pre-pandemic wage increases with only a 1.6 percent increase. Atlanta wages increased 6.4 percent during the pandemic yet this growth rate is notably lower than the national average and below the current inflation rate. While the percentage point difference in wage growth between the two 19-month periods in metro Atlanta is among the highest among the metros analyzed, wage growth in both periods are still on the lower end. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Current Employment Statistics
regional impact + local relevance + Service Industry Driving Increases in Wage Growth 7.4% 7.9% 6.5% 8.4% 6.8% 5.6% 6.8% 6.9% 5.2% 11.0% 11.3% 9.0% 3.2% 6.4% 6.3% 6.1% 6.4% 5.5% 7.7% 7.1% 2.3% 8.7% 8.0% 5.0% 8.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% % Change in Wages Wage Growth Comparison Pandemic vs. Pre-Pandemic by Industry % Change Pandemic (Feb 2020 to Nov 2021) % Change Pre-Pandemic (Jul 2018 to Feb 2020) Most increases in wage growth are coming from services industries such as education, health, leisure, and hospitality. And yet wages as a whole aren’t keeping up with the high rate of inflation which means most real wages are on the decline. Service industries seem to be an exception rather than the rule. Information and business services sectors experienced significant slowdowns in wage growth during the pandemic. These sectors did however have highest average hourly wages among sectors. Goods- producing sectors such as manufacturing saw stagnant wage growth. One thing to note: Since wages are measured for current jobholders, any observed change in wages will be influenced by job losses, i.e. if more low- earning jobs were lost (and they were), average wages will be higher. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Current Employment Statistics
regional impact + local relevance + A Quick Look At The Housing Market
regional impact + local relevance + Building Permit Activity Holding Steady… but at HALF the Pre Great Recession Levels Source: Census, Accessed Via FRED 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 1/1/1988 8/1/1988 3/1/1989 10/1/1989 5/1/1990 12/1/1990 7/1/1991 2/1/1992 9/1/1992 4/1/1993 11/1/1993 6/1/1994 1/1/1995 8/1/1995 3/1/1996 10/1/1996 5/1/1997 12/1/1997 7/1/1998 2/1/1999 9/1/1999 4/1/2000 11/1/2000 6/1/2001 1/1/2002 8/1/2002 3/1/2003 10/1/2003 5/1/2004 12/1/2004 7/1/2005 2/1/2006 9/1/2006 4/1/2007 11/1/2007 6/1/2008 1/1/2009 8/1/2009 3/1/2010 10/1/2010 5/1/2011 12/1/2011 7/1/2012 2/1/2013 9/1/2013 4/1/2014 11/1/2014 6/1/2015 1/1/2016 8/1/2016 3/1/2017 10/1/2017 5/1/2018 12/1/2018 7/1/2019 2/1/2020 9/1/2020 4/1/2021 Metro Atlanta: Private Housing Structures Authorized By Building Permits While permitting activity remained stable during the pandemic, we as a metro area are only authorizing roughly half of the residential units annually than we did each year prior to the Great Recession.
regional impact + local relevance + For-Sale Inventory at All-Time Lows… Source: Redfin; Viz here: https://datastudio.google.com/s/tRyrqgzMfV0 Homebuilding activity has been sluggish, at best, for the last decade or so, which is contributing to all-time lows of for-sale inventory in the metro area. Further, existing home inventory has been constrained by reduced desire of homeowners to move during the pandemic, as well as by the price run-ups that limit those homeowners' ability to find comparable product if they did sell.
regional impact + local relevance + … So Metro Home Prices Keep Rising Source: Case-Shiller, Accessed Via FRED 0 50 100 150 200 250 1/1/1991 7/1/1991 1/1/1992 7/1/1992 1/1/1993 7/1/1993 1/1/1994 7/1/1994 1/1/1995 7/1/1995 1/1/1996 7/1/1996 1/1/1997 7/1/1997 1/1/1998 7/1/1998 1/1/1999 7/1/1999 1/1/2000 7/1/2000 1/1/2001 7/1/2001 1/1/2002 7/1/2002 1/1/2003 7/1/2003 1/1/2004 7/1/2004 1/1/2005 7/1/2005 1/1/2006 7/1/2006 1/1/2007 7/1/2007 1/1/2008 7/1/2008 1/1/2009 7/1/2009 1/1/2010 7/1/2010 1/1/2011 7/1/2011 1/1/2012 7/1/2012 1/1/2013 7/1/2013 1/1/2014 7/1/2014 1/1/2015 7/1/2015 1/1/2016 7/1/2016 1/1/2017 7/1/2017 1/1/2018 7/1/2018 1/1/2019 7/1/2019 1/1/2020 7/1/2020 1/1/2021 7/1/2021 Case-Shiller Home Price Index So, the basic laws of supply (not enough inventory being introduced) and demand (metro Atlanta is still one of the fastest growing places in the country) dictate that home price should rise. And they have and do, with this rise accelerating during the pandemic.
regional impact + local relevance + Oh, And Metro Rents Keep Rising Too! Source: Co-Star Daily Asking Rent Per Square Foot Those priced out of the homebuying market are not likely to find much relief in the rental market. Asking rents in Atlanta over the last year, according to Co-Star, are among the highest we’ve ever seen.
regional impact + local relevance + $1,787 $2,498 $2,483 $1,689 $1,587 $1,674 $1,446 $2,016 $2,186 $1,747 $2,465 $2,890 $1,605 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 United States New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL Dallas, TX Philadelphia, PA Houston, TX Washington, DC Miami,FL Atlanta, GA Boston, MA San Francisco, CA Austin, TX Rent Index + Rent Growth, Last Five Years United States New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL Dallas, TX Philadelphia, PA Houston, TX Washington, DC Miami,FL Atlanta, GA Boston, MA San Francisco, CA Austin, TX Atlanta Experienced Largest Rent Growth Among Major Metros Source: Zillow Observed Rent Index Rent Index August 2021 % Change, 5- Year 20.5% 1.1% 20.0% 8.9% 25.2% 16.5% 13.1% 8.1% 25.7% 41.3% 9.2% 4.1% 23.65 According to Zillow’s Observed Rent Index, metro Atlanta has experienced the largest rent growth, by far, over the last five years among our peer metros. While metro Atlanta’s overall rent index ($1,747 in August) is still relatively low when compared to expensive coastal markets, the 41.3 percent increase dwarfs all other increases, even among metros with similar rents. Said more succinctly, we are separating from the pack in terms of overall rents.
regional impact + local relevance + A Quick Look At What Might Be Coming Next? (Real-Time Trends)
regional impact + local relevance + Consumer Spending Considerably Higher…
regional impact + local relevance + …But We’re Not Spending it At Places Like Restaurants
regional impact + local relevance + Whatever Is To Come, We’ll Need Software Developers...and Nurses Source: Labor Insights/Burning Glass 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Software Developers, Applications Registered Nurses Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manu, not Tech, Science Retail Salespersons Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Managers, All Other Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand Customer Service Representatives First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers General and Operations Managers Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Human Resources Specialists Marketing Managers Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Medical and Health Services Managers Food Service Managers Management Analysts Sales Managers Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, not Legal, Medical, Exec Computer Systems Engineers/Architects Information Technology Project Managers Computer User Support Specialists Metro Atlanta Job Postings: Last 90 Days

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Economy jan 22 snapshot web

  • 1.
    regional impact + local relevance + A Quick LookAt Metro Atlanta’s Economy Mike Carnathan Atlanta Regional Commission mcarnathan@atlantaregional.org
  • 2.
    regional impact + local relevance + Key Points/Executive Summary •Atlanta’s job market recovery is one of the strongest among our peers. • Despite this recovery, there is still a good amount of financial distress out there. • Employment in the Food/Accommodation Sector is still down 13 percent from pre-pandemic levels. • Inflation in metro Atlanta is highest among its peer metro areas, driven by sky-rocketing motor fuel and personal vehicle costs. • Wages have increased in some sectors—primarily lower-wage, consumer-focused industries. But age growth has not kept up with inflation. • Nationally, the ratio of unemployed workers to job openings is at historic lows (meaning there are more job openings than job seekers), and the quit rate - workers who are voluntarily leaving their job- is at historic highs. So expect continued disruption in the labor market. • Home prices (driven by extremely low inventory) are at all-time highs….as are rents.
  • 3.
    regional impact + local relevance + What Are WeWorrying About? According to data from Google Trends, the past year saw vast increases in searches about “labor shortage,” “remote work,” and “inflation.” This one simple chart nicely sums up the state of the economy as we head into 2022.
  • 4.
    regional impact + local relevance + Perceptions About theEconomy: Financial Insecurity 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Pay with Cash, Check or Debit Pay with Credit Card Would Borrow Money Would Sell or Pawn Something Would Not Be Able to Pay Now DK How Would You Handle a $400 Emergency? All respondents ~28% Since this Snapshot is about the economy, let’s first take the pulse of our residents. Our Metro Atlanta Speaks (MAS) survey asked them in August last year about how they'd handle an unexpected emergency that cost $400 – a standard question in both MAS and national surveys to assess levels of overall financial distress. As the chart shows, roughly 28 percent of respondents would struggle to pay. Source: 2021 Metro Atlanta Speaks 1 in 4 Atlanta Residents Would Struggle with a $400 Emergency
  • 5.
    regional impact + local relevance + Housing Insecurity 17.3% 69.7% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Slightly orNot At All Very or Moderately Confidence in ability to make next mortgage/rent payment When asked in Metro Atlanta Speaks how confident they were in their ability to pay next month’s rent or mortgage, 17 percent of respondents indicated that they were only “slightly” or “not at all” confident. Source: 2021 Metro Atlanta Speaks NOTE: Additional 13 percent of respondents either had no answer or did have a housing payment
  • 6.
    regional impact + local relevance + Remote Work 21.0% 37.2% 41.7% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% Occassionally Mostor all of the time (or always have) Not at all Extent to which you are working at home because of Covid-19 pandemic (for those who are employed full or part time) And since Google Trends revealed that remote work was top-of-mind for many, here is how MAS respondents answered about their ability to work from home. “Not at all” was in the minority, with just 42 percent of respondents indicating that they had not worked from home during the pandemic. This share is down from two-thirds as of the August, 2020 survey. Source: 2021 Metro Atlanta Speaks
  • 7.
    regional impact + local relevance + We’re Almost There* - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 TotalEmployment: Metro Atlanta * To Attaining Pre-Pandemic Levels (February 2020) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics ( -4,900 Since February 2020) Metro Atlanta's job base is now down only 4,900 jobs when compared to February 2020, and only 38,000 jobs lower than the employment peak of December 2019.
  • 8.
    regional impact + local relevance + Metro Atlanta’s EmploymentGrowth Mostly In-line With Nation’s -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Year Over Year Percent Change in Total Employment Metro Atlanta US As the above chart shows, metro Atlanta year-over-year change has mostly tracked with that of the nation’s change since the beginning of the pandemic. For most of the 2010s, however, metro Atlanta’s employment growth had been stronger than that of the nation’s. It should be noted though that since the summer of 2021, metro Atlanta’s employment growth has slightly out-performed the nation. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 9.
    regional impact + local relevance + Metro Atlanta RanksRelatively High In Job Market Recovery -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Austin Dallas Denver Atlanta Seattle Washington DC Houston Boston Minneapolis Los Angeles New York Percent Change, Feb 2020 to Nov 2021 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Although metro Atlanta still hasn’t recovered all the job losses experienced during the pandemic, our job recovery ranks fairly well compared to that of some of our peer metros.
  • 10.
    regional impact + local relevance + Most Major JobSectors Are Up Since Pandemic -14.0% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Manufacturing Construction Trade, Transportation, Utilities Information Finance Professional, Business Education, Health Leisure, Hospitality Other Services Metro Atlanta: % Change, Pre-Pandemic (February 2020) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics All of the major job sectors in metro Atlanta are now trending above their February 2020 levels, except for “Other Services.” Put another way, ALL of the job losses since February 2020 are concentrated in “Other Services,” which is a "high-touch" job sector that includes businesses that typically require proximity to other people (such as hair and nail salons, religious services, and laundry services).
  • 11.
    regional impact + local relevance + Comparing Metro AtlantaAcross Sectors -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Atlanta Austin Dallas Denver Houston Las Vegas Los Angeles Minneapolis Orlando Percent Change in Employees, February 2020 – November 2021 Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Transport, Warehousing, Util Information Finance Professional/Business Education/Health Accommodation/Food Food Service/Drinking Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Metro areas were selected based on whether they had comparable data for the 10 chosen sectors, so there are obvious metro areas that weren’t included because BLS didn’t report comparable data. There is a lot to unpack in this chart, but the headline is that when looking at some of the major job sectors across peer metros, growth in metro Atlanta compares favorably to almost all other metros shown above. As with those metros, the heaviest job losses in metro Atlanta were concentrated in the Accommodation/Food Sector, which includes Food Service/Drinking Establishments (also shown above, separately). But, out of the 10 sectors charted, metro Atlanta has experienced losses in only three. Austin is the only other selected metro with job losses in so few sectors.
  • 12.
    regional impact + local relevance + Quick Look AtInflation (Yikes) 6.2% 7.9% 6.3% 5.3% 5.5% 6.1% 5.4% 5.7% 4.3% 5.6% 7.1% 3.8% 6.5% 7.5% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% United States Atlanta Baltimore Chicago Detroit Houston Los Angeles Miam New York Philadelphia Phoenix San Francisco Seattle St. Louis Year-Over-Year Change in Inflation (October to October) 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Along with labor shortages, rising inflation has been one of the biggest economic headlines of the past year. And, as the chart shows, metro Atlanta’s inflation rate was the highest last year across selected metro areas with comparable data.
  • 13.
    regional impact + local relevance + Inflationary Increase DrivenBy Transportation 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 All Items Food Alcoholic Beverages Shelter Fuels and utilities (Housing) Household Furnishings Apparel Private Transportation Motor Fuel Vehicle Insurance Medical Care Recreation Education and Communication Other Goods and Services Metro Atlanta: Components of Inflation (Year-Over-Year Change, Oct 2020- Oct 2021) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics As can be seen, motor fuel experienced the largest price increase, by far, of all the major components of inflation in Metro Atlanta.
  • 14.
    regional impact + local relevance + Quick Look AtLabor Shortages (Yikes) The other major headline of the national economy over the past year is the sheer intensity of labor shortages. While we don’t have separate comparable data for metro Atlanta, you can see that the number of unemployed persons per job opening is at all-time lows. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 15.
    regional impact + local relevance + Quick Look AtLabor Shortages (Yikes) At the same time that we have a historically low ratio of the unemployed persons to job openings, we also have a historically high rate of “quits”, or workers voluntarily leaving their jobs. A high rate of quits usually means that workers feel confident in their ability to find a better job and suggest that this labor market is the most worker-friendly one seen in decades. So, it is these two factors combined that have caused the high levels of labor disruption. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 16.
    regional impact + local relevance + (Almost) Everybody isMaking More Money 7.9% 6.4% 6.0% 13.3% 6.9% 7.8% 7.9% 8.7% 6.2% 9.0% 8.9% 5.8% 6.3% 1.6% 2.0% 3.1% 10.6% 0.9% 6.2% 10.0% 8.6% 6.1% 6.8% 6.3% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% National Wages Atlanta, GA Austin, TX Dallas, TX Denver, CO Houston, TX Las Vegas, NV Los Angeles, CA Minneapolis, MN Orlando, FL Boston, MA Washington DC Percent Change in Wages Metro Area Wage Growth Comparison Pre-Pandemic and Pandemic Percent Change Pandemic (Feb 2020 to Nov 2021) % Change Pre-Pandemic (Jul 2018 to Feb 2020) National wage growth has grown marginally from 6.3 percent in a 19-month pre-pandemic period to almost 8 percent in the past 19 months. Atlanta lagged the nation in pre-pandemic wage increases with only a 1.6 percent increase. Atlanta wages increased 6.4 percent during the pandemic yet this growth rate is notably lower than the national average and below the current inflation rate. While the percentage point difference in wage growth between the two 19-month periods in metro Atlanta is among the highest among the metros analyzed, wage growth in both periods are still on the lower end. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Current Employment Statistics
  • 17.
    regional impact + local relevance + Service Industry DrivingIncreases in Wage Growth 7.4% 7.9% 6.5% 8.4% 6.8% 5.6% 6.8% 6.9% 5.2% 11.0% 11.3% 9.0% 3.2% 6.4% 6.3% 6.1% 6.4% 5.5% 7.7% 7.1% 2.3% 8.7% 8.0% 5.0% 8.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% % Change in Wages Wage Growth Comparison Pandemic vs. Pre-Pandemic by Industry % Change Pandemic (Feb 2020 to Nov 2021) % Change Pre-Pandemic (Jul 2018 to Feb 2020) Most increases in wage growth are coming from services industries such as education, health, leisure, and hospitality. And yet wages as a whole aren’t keeping up with the high rate of inflation which means most real wages are on the decline. Service industries seem to be an exception rather than the rule. Information and business services sectors experienced significant slowdowns in wage growth during the pandemic. These sectors did however have highest average hourly wages among sectors. Goods- producing sectors such as manufacturing saw stagnant wage growth. One thing to note: Since wages are measured for current jobholders, any observed change in wages will be influenced by job losses, i.e. if more low- earning jobs were lost (and they were), average wages will be higher. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Current Employment Statistics
  • 18.
  • 19.
    regional impact + local relevance + Building Permit ActivityHolding Steady… but at HALF the Pre Great Recession Levels Source: Census, Accessed Via FRED 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 1/1/1988 8/1/1988 3/1/1989 10/1/1989 5/1/1990 12/1/1990 7/1/1991 2/1/1992 9/1/1992 4/1/1993 11/1/1993 6/1/1994 1/1/1995 8/1/1995 3/1/1996 10/1/1996 5/1/1997 12/1/1997 7/1/1998 2/1/1999 9/1/1999 4/1/2000 11/1/2000 6/1/2001 1/1/2002 8/1/2002 3/1/2003 10/1/2003 5/1/2004 12/1/2004 7/1/2005 2/1/2006 9/1/2006 4/1/2007 11/1/2007 6/1/2008 1/1/2009 8/1/2009 3/1/2010 10/1/2010 5/1/2011 12/1/2011 7/1/2012 2/1/2013 9/1/2013 4/1/2014 11/1/2014 6/1/2015 1/1/2016 8/1/2016 3/1/2017 10/1/2017 5/1/2018 12/1/2018 7/1/2019 2/1/2020 9/1/2020 4/1/2021 Metro Atlanta: Private Housing Structures Authorized By Building Permits While permitting activity remained stable during the pandemic, we as a metro area are only authorizing roughly half of the residential units annually than we did each year prior to the Great Recession.
  • 20.
    regional impact + local relevance + For-Sale Inventory atAll-Time Lows… Source: Redfin; Viz here: https://datastudio.google.com/s/tRyrqgzMfV0 Homebuilding activity has been sluggish, at best, for the last decade or so, which is contributing to all-time lows of for-sale inventory in the metro area. Further, existing home inventory has been constrained by reduced desire of homeowners to move during the pandemic, as well as by the price run-ups that limit those homeowners' ability to find comparable product if they did sell.
  • 21.
    regional impact + local relevance + … So MetroHome Prices Keep Rising Source: Case-Shiller, Accessed Via FRED 0 50 100 150 200 250 1/1/1991 7/1/1991 1/1/1992 7/1/1992 1/1/1993 7/1/1993 1/1/1994 7/1/1994 1/1/1995 7/1/1995 1/1/1996 7/1/1996 1/1/1997 7/1/1997 1/1/1998 7/1/1998 1/1/1999 7/1/1999 1/1/2000 7/1/2000 1/1/2001 7/1/2001 1/1/2002 7/1/2002 1/1/2003 7/1/2003 1/1/2004 7/1/2004 1/1/2005 7/1/2005 1/1/2006 7/1/2006 1/1/2007 7/1/2007 1/1/2008 7/1/2008 1/1/2009 7/1/2009 1/1/2010 7/1/2010 1/1/2011 7/1/2011 1/1/2012 7/1/2012 1/1/2013 7/1/2013 1/1/2014 7/1/2014 1/1/2015 7/1/2015 1/1/2016 7/1/2016 1/1/2017 7/1/2017 1/1/2018 7/1/2018 1/1/2019 7/1/2019 1/1/2020 7/1/2020 1/1/2021 7/1/2021 Case-Shiller Home Price Index So, the basic laws of supply (not enough inventory being introduced) and demand (metro Atlanta is still one of the fastest growing places in the country) dictate that home price should rise. And they have and do, with this rise accelerating during the pandemic.
  • 22.
    regional impact + local relevance + Oh, And MetroRents Keep Rising Too! Source: Co-Star Daily Asking Rent Per Square Foot Those priced out of the homebuying market are not likely to find much relief in the rental market. Asking rents in Atlanta over the last year, according to Co-Star, are among the highest we’ve ever seen.
  • 23.
    regional impact + local relevance + $1,787 $2,498 $2,483 $1,689 $1,587$1,674 $1,446 $2,016 $2,186 $1,747 $2,465 $2,890 $1,605 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 United States New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL Dallas, TX Philadelphia, PA Houston, TX Washington, DC Miami,FL Atlanta, GA Boston, MA San Francisco, CA Austin, TX Rent Index + Rent Growth, Last Five Years United States New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL Dallas, TX Philadelphia, PA Houston, TX Washington, DC Miami,FL Atlanta, GA Boston, MA San Francisco, CA Austin, TX Atlanta Experienced Largest Rent Growth Among Major Metros Source: Zillow Observed Rent Index Rent Index August 2021 % Change, 5- Year 20.5% 1.1% 20.0% 8.9% 25.2% 16.5% 13.1% 8.1% 25.7% 41.3% 9.2% 4.1% 23.65 According to Zillow’s Observed Rent Index, metro Atlanta has experienced the largest rent growth, by far, over the last five years among our peer metros. While metro Atlanta’s overall rent index ($1,747 in August) is still relatively low when compared to expensive coastal markets, the 41.3 percent increase dwarfs all other increases, even among metros with similar rents. Said more succinctly, we are separating from the pack in terms of overall rents.
  • 24.
    regional impact + local relevance + A Quick LookAt What Might Be Coming Next? (Real-Time Trends)
  • 25.
  • 26.
    regional impact + local relevance + …But We’re NotSpending it At Places Like Restaurants
  • 27.
    regional impact + local relevance + Whatever Is ToCome, We’ll Need Software Developers...and Nurses Source: Labor Insights/Burning Glass 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Software Developers, Applications Registered Nurses Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manu, not Tech, Science Retail Salespersons Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Managers, All Other Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand Customer Service Representatives First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers General and Operations Managers Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Human Resources Specialists Marketing Managers Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Medical and Health Services Managers Food Service Managers Management Analysts Sales Managers Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, not Legal, Medical, Exec Computer Systems Engineers/Architects Information Technology Project Managers Computer User Support Specialists Metro Atlanta Job Postings: Last 90 Days