Jan 2021 Pandemic Economy

regionalimpact+localrelevance
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What We Know (or think we know) About The
Economic Impact of COVID-19
Mike Carnathan
Atlanta Regional Commission
mcarnathan@atlantaregional.org

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Highlights
• The virus is still dictating the pace of the economic recovery – 140,000 jobs LOST in December
nationally.
• Employment levels in almost all sectors are still well below their pre-pandemic levels. The only
exception is the “Trade, Transportation and Utilities” Super-Sector
• Labor force participation is creeping back up, but still significantly lower than normal
• Small businesses are still reporting struggles in this economy, with only about 10% indicating a
return to normal
• Most economists have been revising their forecasts to show a quicker immediate recovery, but a
longer slog
• There is a lot of household money sitting on the sidelines, suggesting that late 2021 could see an
economic resurgence.
• Perhaps the biggest lesson to be gleaned thus far is the twin public health and economic crises have
exposed structural weaknesses that see persons of color experiencing the greatest negative impacts

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Before We Talk Economy, Let’s Take Quick Look at the
Public Health Side of Things!

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What We Think Locally…
Biggest Problem Facing the Region…
Source: 2020 Metro Atlanta Speaks
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Public Health Crime Economy Race Relations Transportation Public
Education
Human Services Other Taxes

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Oh Yeah… COVID! Cases Trending Back Up…
https://atlantaregional.shinyapps.io/COVID19/
Daily New Confirmed Cases, 7-Day Moving Average

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Hospitalizations And Deaths Are Also Going Back Up…
https://amberschmidtkephd.substack.com/

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…As Is Our Positivity Rate
https://amberschmidtkephd.substack.com/

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How Are We Behaving & Thinking?
C

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Our Reactions to the Virus
Source: Opportunity Insights (Google COVID Mobility Reports and New Daily COVID Cases)
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
24-Feb
2-Mar
9-Mar
16-Mar
23-Mar
30-Mar
6-Apr
13-Apr
20-Apr
27-Apr
4-May
11-May
18-May
25-May
1-Jun
8-Jun
15-Jun
22-Jun
29-Jun
6-Jul
13-Jul
20-Jul
27-Jul
3-Aug
10-Aug
17-Aug
24-Aug
31-Aug
7-Sep
14-Sep
21-Sep
28-Sep
5-Oct
12-Oct
19-Oct
26-Oct
2-Nov
9-Nov
16-Nov
23-Nov
30-Nov
7-Dec
14-Dec
New COVID Cases Per 100,000 Population (LEFT Axis) & Percent Change in Time Spent Away
From Home Compared to January (RIGHT Axis)
New Cases per 100,000 Time Spent Away From Home

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Do You know anyone who has been diagnosed with COVID-19?
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Region Cherokee Clayton Cobb DeKalb Douglas Fayette Fulton Gwinnett Henry Rockdale City of
Atlanta
Yes No

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What We Are Thinking and Doing
Source: Ipsos

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How often did you wear mask or other type of face covering when going to stores
or other business establishments? (In last 30 days)
67.8%
51.9%
66.6%
66.6%
76.1%
65.3%
66.0%
70.9%
64.6%
65.6%
63.5%
69.4%
17.9%
27.4%
17.5%
16.2%
15.1%
16.3%
18.3%
16.5%
20.4%
18.5%
21.3%
17.3%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
Region
Cherokee
Clayton
Cobb
DeKalb
Douglas
Fayette
Fulton
Gwinnett
Henry
Rockdale
City of Atlanta
% Responding “All of the Time” or “Most of the Time”
All of the time Most of the time

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Employment
A

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Still Have A Ways To Go
-3.0%
-5.9%
1.6%
-7.2%
-1.8%
-3.5%
-0.8%
-11.2%
-9.4%
-2.5%
-0.12
-0.1
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
% of Last Year's Employment: November 2020 Compared to November 2019
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED

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Still Down 85K Jobs Since Last November
-350.0
-300.0
-250.0
-200.0
-150.0
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
12 Month Net Change

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Labor Force Participation Creeping Back Up… But Still
Lower than Pre-Pandemic
2,800,000
2,850,000
2,900,000
2,950,000
3,000,000
3,050,000
3,100,000
3,150,000
3,200,000
Number In Labor Force

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Metro Year-Over-Year Percent Job DECLINE October
2019-2020
https://www.bls.gov/regions/southeast/news-release/areaemployment_atlanta.htm
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
New York San Francisco Boston Los Angeles Chicago Philadelphia Miami U.S. Washington DC Houston Atlanta Phoenix Dallas
Percent Job Change, October-October

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Jobless Claims Ticking Back Up
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
03/07/2020 03/14/2020 12/26/2020 01/02/2021
Source: GA DOL

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Vast Majority of Small Businesses Negatively Affected
80.7%
75.7%
80.7%
76.9% 77.8%
79.7%
72.9%
73.6%
73.3%
69.5%
73.3% 71.9%
75.6% 77.0%
77.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
8/9-8/15 8/16-8/22 8/23-8/29 8/30-9/5 9/6-9/12 9/13-9/19 9/20-9/26 9/27-10/3 10/4-10/12 11/9-11/15 11/16-11/22 11/23-11/29 11/30-12/6 12/7-12/13 12/14-12/20
Large or Moderate Negative Effect
Overall, How Has This Business Been Affected by The Coronavirus Pandemic?
Source: Census Bureau Small Business Pulse Survey

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Not Many Small Businesses Indicate a “Return to Normal”
7.0%
11.2%
7.8% 8.1%
8.2% 8.6%
13.6%
14.8%
10.6%
10.0%
10.9%
8.3%
10.4%
8.6%
10.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
8/9-8/15 8/16-8/22 8/23-8/29 8/30-9/5 9/6-9/12 9/13-9/19 9/20-9/26 9/27-10/3 10/4-10/12 11/9-11/15 11/16-11/22 11/23-11/29 11/30-12/6 12/7-12/13 12/14-12/20
Already Returned to Normal
How Much Time Do You Think Will Pass Before This Business returns To Normal Business Operations Compared
to One Year Ago

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Employers Are Still Decreasing Hours
19.4%
13.0%
12.9%
11.6%
15.4%
15.8%
10.6%
11.3%
11.1%
13.2%
12.2%
13.4%
15.0%
11.7%
15.4%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
8/9-8/15 8/16-8/22 8/23-8/29 8/30-9/5 9/6-9/12 9/13-9/19 9/20-9/26 9/27-10/3 10/4-10/12 11/9-11/15 11/16-11/22 11/23-11/29 11/30-12/6 12/7-12/13 12/14-12/20
Decrease in Hours
In the Past Week, Did This Business Have A Change In The Number of Hours Worked by Paid Employees?

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Gazing Into The Near Future

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From Moody’s
• “U.S. consumer spending is ending 2020 only modestly below where it
started the year, thanks to massive support to household income from
the government”
• “Some long-running trends, like the shift to buying online, have
advanced by years while others, like the shift from buying groceries to
eating out, have been set back by decades”
• “The shift away from recreational services has been led by massive
declines in spending on theaters, entertainment and other admissions,
photo studios, parks, campgrounds and the like and other similar
services”

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The FED’s Latest Economic Assessment
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20201216.htm

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Latest Forecast Show Late 2021?
Source: Conference Board

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Reason for Optimism in 2021?

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$900B Pandemic Relief Package Passes!
Includes funding for the following:
• $600 in direct payments
• Extension of enhanced unemployment benefits - $300 – until mid-March
• $25B in rental assistance and extends eviction moratoria through end of month
• Additional SNAP assistance ($13 billion)
• $284B extension of PPP for small businesses, also lowered the employee cap from 500 to 300
(including $15B for live entertainment venues and $10B for child care center reopenings)
• $45B for airlines, mass transit agencies, highways and Amtrak
• And a lot more, including funding to expand access to vaccines, broadband, K-12 reopening
strategies, agriculture, surprise billing and tax deductible meals

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There Are Occupations That Seem To Be “Pandemic Proof”
2.2%
2.4%
3.4%
4.6%
3.0%
2.3%
-2.5%
0.3%
1.5%
4.1%
-0.3%
-8.0%
-9.0%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
AdvMfg Skilled Trade TDL IT Healthcare Overall
Target Clusters (Top Jobs) and Overall Job Growth (in Percent): Averages Q2 to Q2
2010-2019 2019-2020
Source: Jobs EQ, 2020Q2

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It’s About People

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Unemployment Rates Shows Inequities

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Race, Gender, Education Disparities

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Low Income Workers Faring the Worst
Source: Opportunity Insights

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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Racial Composition of Largest Sub-Sectors: Metro Atlanta
Low Wage
Avg Wage
High Wage
Over-
representation
of Workers of
Color
Under-
representation of
Workers of Color
Source: QWI Data Explorer

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Businesses Owned By Persons Of Color & Immigrants
Disproportionately Suffering
A

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More than Half Of Region’s Residents Experienced A
Dramatic “Status” Change
62.4%
83.7%
71.5%
71.4%
68.2%
64.4%
62.3%
60.7%
58.8%
52.3%
50.6%
49.1%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
Region
Clayton
City of Atlanta
DeKalb
Rockdale
Gwinnett
Fulton
Fayette
Henry
Cherokee
Douglas
Cobb
% Laid Off, Furloughed, Reduced Hours or Reduced Pay

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Summing Up
• Atlanta has now been thru two “peaks” of COVID cases. And a new surge is happening right now.
• The five high demand clusters identified by our partners in this region seem to be “pandemic proof”
• Metro Atlanta: has suffered economically but not as much as some other large metros. Remote work in Atlanta is helping
cushion the economic fall, but the economic consequences is being borne by low income and minority workers.
• Approximately 70% of arts organizations have had to either layoff, furlough, reduce hours and programming or instituted
across-the-board pay cuts.
• Atlanta’s Office, Multi-Family and Industrial markets have weathered this storm well so far- but forecasts suggest a long and
potentially bumpy recovery as vacancy rates will remain high
• Evictions, after the national moratorium ends, will be a challenge, with 80,000 renter households under severe distress.
• Around 27 percent of licensed child-centers and homes are closed. A recent report from NAEYC suggests that around 50% of
these closed centers may never reopen.
• Learn4Life research suggests that the switch to virtual learning at the end of the school year contributed to a decline in
reading and math proficiency that equals roughly two years of learning loss.
• Let’s add in another letter to recovery scenarios - K-Shaped

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Explore For Yourself! And Questions….
https://neighborhoodnexus.org/covid19/ www.33n.atlantaregional.com

Jan 2021 Pandemic Economy

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