The document provides an economic update and analysis across various regions and countries. It includes graphs and data on topics like global policy uncertainty, world exports, trade volumes, debt levels in China, economic indicators in the euro area, US consumer confidence and job growth, and GDP growth trends in South Africa. The data shows mixed economic performance in recent years with signs of slowing global trade and industrial production in some regions.

1. Economic update
Kevin Lings

2. 2
Policy uncertainty

3. 3
Global policy uncertainty index
Index
40
90
140
190
240
290
340
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

4. 4
World exports as % of world GDP
% of world GDP
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

5. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2016
2017
2018
%y/y
World trade volumes

6. Global container shipping activity
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
2017
2018
2019
Harper Index, cost

7. 7
China total debt as % of GDP
% of GDP
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

8. 8
China industrial production
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

9. 9
China retail sales
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% y/y

10. 10
Euro vs US official interest rates
%
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

11. 11
Euro-area

12. 12
Euro-area economic sentiment indicator
Index, 100=average
65
75
85
95
105
115
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

13. 48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
16
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
17
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
18
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
19
Index
Euro-area PMI
Euro-area

14. 14
Euro-area industrial production
%y/y
-24
-22
-20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

15. -3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
%q/q
Euro-area real GP growth (quarter-on-quarter)

16. 16
United States

17. 17
US consumer confidence
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Index

18. 18
US small business confidence index (NFIB)
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Index

19. 19
USI ISM manufacturing index
Index
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

20. 20
US monthly payroll changes
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
000’s

21. 21
US job openings
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

22. 22
US growth in consumer spending
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

23. 23
US real GDP growth
3,8 3,5
2,9
1,9
-0,1
-2,5
2,6
1,6
2,2
1,8
2,5
2,9
1,6
2,2
2,9
2,2
1,7
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
%y/y

24. Breakdown of the world economy – estimated in 2018
South Africa
Australia
South America
USA
Canada
Sub- Saharan Africa
Euro-area
Russia
China
Japan
India
UK
Brazil
24.3%
15%15.8%
7.4%
6.1%
4.6%
3.3%
3.3%
2.6%
2.1%
1.7%
1.9%
1.9%
0,4%

25. Emerging market exchange rate vs USD
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Indian Ruppe
Taiwan Dollar
South Korea
Czech Koruna
Philippines Peso
Malaysian Ringgit
Peru
Polish Zloty
Egyptian pound
Singapore Dollar
Argentine peso
Hungarian Forint
China Renminbi
Colombian Peso
New Turkish Lira
Israeli Shekel
Mexican Peso
Thai Baht
Indonesian Rupiah
Russian Ruble
Chilean Peso
Brazilian Real
South African Rand
1 January 2019 to 31 January 2019, % change

26. 26
South Africa

27. 27
SA consumer disposable income
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
%, y/y, 4-quarter moving average, real

28. 28
SA rate of growth in household personal loans
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
A M J J A S O N D 18 F M A M J J A S O N
%y/y

29. 29
SA business confidence (BER)
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Index

30. 30
Private sector fixed investment as % of GDP
10
11
12
13
14
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
%of GDP

31. 31
Growth in fixed investment spending by SOEs
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
% year-on-year, 4-quarter moving ave

32. 32
World corruption perception index: South Africa
46
51
43
54 55 54
64
69 72
67
61 64
71 73
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
World ranking

33. 33
Which elements of government are likely to improve
our next 12-months?
STATE OWNED
ENTERPRISES
LAND
EXPROPRIATION
FISCAL
DISCIPLINE
PRIVATE/PUBLIC
PARTNERSHIPS
PROSECUTION
OF KEY
OFFICIALS
GOVERNMENT
REFORM
NO AD HOC
POLICY
MEASURES

34. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Next 3
years
Ranking out of 189 countries
South Africa global ranking: ease of doing business

35. 55
59 56
41
29
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ranking out of 189 countries
Rwanda global ranking: ease of doing business

36. 36
SA GDP annual growth rate
4,2
2,7
3,7
2,9
4,6
5,3 5,6 5,4
3,2
-1,5
3,0 3,3
2,2 2,5
1,8
1,3
0,6
1,3
0,7
1,5 1,9
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
%y/y