Remarks before the Dallas chapters of Financial Executives International, the Association for Corporate Growth and the National Association of Corporate Directors
Dallas · January 11, 2016
The document provides outlooks from leaders of Franklin Templeton on the global macro environment, global equities, and multi-strategy solutions. It includes the following key points:
- Michael Hasenstab discusses expectations for continuing US economic growth and rising interest rates from the Fed, while the BOJ and ECB maintain quantitative easing. Emerging markets show differences that will be magnified by US rate hikes.
- Ed Perks oversees equity teams that share insights across markets to strengthen convictions.
- Rick Frisbie's group incorporates long-term capital market expectations into portfolio positioning for the next 5-10 years.
- Gold and silver prices are expected to come under pressure in January 2017 due to expectations of gradual interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and a stronger US dollar. However, downside will be limited due to ongoing low or negative interest rates elsewhere and global political and economic uncertainty.
- For January 2017, gold prices are forecast to range between $1,120-1,210/oz internationally and Rs.27,000-28,620/10gms domestically, while silver prices are anticipated to range between $15.60-17.90/oz and Rs.38,300-44,400/kg.
- In December 2016, gold and silver prices declined over 2% and 3%
Factors that affect the Pakistani rupee and US dollar exchange rate include inflation, interest rates, speculation, balance of payments, and public debt. If inflation is lower in the US, the dollar becomes more competitive and demand for the dollar increases. Higher US interest rates also increase demand for the dollar. Speculation over political events or commodity prices can influence currency values. A current account deficit or lack of capital inflows to finance the deficit can cause currency depreciation. A country's public debt level and debt rating also impact how attractive it is to foreign investors and its exchange rate.
This document provides three potential scenarios for the performance of the U.S. stock market in 2017: an RBC forecast, a pessimistic scenario, and an optimistic scenario. The RBC forecast, with a 60% likelihood, is for low double-digit returns in 2017 and 2018 driven by improved earnings and economic growth. A pessimistic scenario, with a 20% likelihood, involves weaker growth and risks like trade tensions. An optimistic scenario, with a 20% likelihood, depends on pro-growth legislation passing in Washington.
Emerging markets analysis from Emerging Markets FX at Swedbank.
This publication is forcasting currency developments for selected emerging markets countries with a time horizon of 3 months.
The document discusses the impacts of recent political and economic events in the U.S. and globally. It notes that the Republican gains in midterm elections may lead to political gridlock, stalling progress. It also discusses the Federal Reserve's announcement of $600 billion in additional quantitative easing to keep interest rates low and stimulate the economy. This caused stocks and gold prices to rise initially. However, if Republicans push Obama to reduce deficits, the dollar could strengthen and gold could fall as a result. Overall it presents a mixed outlook dependent on upcoming political decisions and economic recovery.
Monthly Newsletter on key sectors of Pakistan Economy with updates on Money Market and Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and latest numbers of Inflation, Current and Fiscal Account.
Is the Fed really as dovish as markets think? QNB Group
The Fed lowered its projections for US interest rate hikes in 2016 from four to two at its March meeting. This led markets to expect a more dovish monetary policy stance from the Fed. However, the document argues the Fed may still raise rates more than projected due to several reasons. Global economic conditions have improved since early 2016. Additionally, the strong US jobs market and higher-than-expected inflation could encourage the Fed to hike rates more than the projected two times. Therefore, markets may have overreacted to the Fed's dovish signals and a more hawkish surprise could occur.
The document provides outlooks from leaders of Franklin Templeton on the global macro environment, global equities, and multi-strategy solutions. It includes the following key points:
- Michael Hasenstab discusses expectations for continuing US economic growth and rising interest rates from the Fed, while the BOJ and ECB maintain quantitative easing. Emerging markets show differences that will be magnified by US rate hikes.
- Ed Perks oversees equity teams that share insights across markets to strengthen convictions.
- Rick Frisbie's group incorporates long-term capital market expectations into portfolio positioning for the next 5-10 years.
- Gold and silver prices are expected to come under pressure in January 2017 due to expectations of gradual interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and a stronger US dollar. However, downside will be limited due to ongoing low or negative interest rates elsewhere and global political and economic uncertainty.
- For January 2017, gold prices are forecast to range between $1,120-1,210/oz internationally and Rs.27,000-28,620/10gms domestically, while silver prices are anticipated to range between $15.60-17.90/oz and Rs.38,300-44,400/kg.
- In December 2016, gold and silver prices declined over 2% and 3%
Factors that affect the Pakistani rupee and US dollar exchange rate include inflation, interest rates, speculation, balance of payments, and public debt. If inflation is lower in the US, the dollar becomes more competitive and demand for the dollar increases. Higher US interest rates also increase demand for the dollar. Speculation over political events or commodity prices can influence currency values. A current account deficit or lack of capital inflows to finance the deficit can cause currency depreciation. A country's public debt level and debt rating also impact how attractive it is to foreign investors and its exchange rate.
This document provides three potential scenarios for the performance of the U.S. stock market in 2017: an RBC forecast, a pessimistic scenario, and an optimistic scenario. The RBC forecast, with a 60% likelihood, is for low double-digit returns in 2017 and 2018 driven by improved earnings and economic growth. A pessimistic scenario, with a 20% likelihood, involves weaker growth and risks like trade tensions. An optimistic scenario, with a 20% likelihood, depends on pro-growth legislation passing in Washington.
Emerging markets analysis from Emerging Markets FX at Swedbank.
This publication is forcasting currency developments for selected emerging markets countries with a time horizon of 3 months.
The document discusses the impacts of recent political and economic events in the U.S. and globally. It notes that the Republican gains in midterm elections may lead to political gridlock, stalling progress. It also discusses the Federal Reserve's announcement of $600 billion in additional quantitative easing to keep interest rates low and stimulate the economy. This caused stocks and gold prices to rise initially. However, if Republicans push Obama to reduce deficits, the dollar could strengthen and gold could fall as a result. Overall it presents a mixed outlook dependent on upcoming political decisions and economic recovery.
Monthly Newsletter on key sectors of Pakistan Economy with updates on Money Market and Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and latest numbers of Inflation, Current and Fiscal Account.
Is the Fed really as dovish as markets think? QNB Group
The Fed lowered its projections for US interest rate hikes in 2016 from four to two at its March meeting. This led markets to expect a more dovish monetary policy stance from the Fed. However, the document argues the Fed may still raise rates more than projected due to several reasons. Global economic conditions have improved since early 2016. Additionally, the strong US jobs market and higher-than-expected inflation could encourage the Fed to hike rates more than the projected two times. Therefore, markets may have overreacted to the Fed's dovish signals and a more hawkish surprise could occur.
The document discusses whether the U.S. economy has achieved "escape velocity," which refers to a self-sustaining economic recovery that allows the Fed to end its bond purchase program. It notes that many economists believe the U.S. will reach escape velocity in 2014 due to broad economic strength and reduced fiscal drag. However, inflation remains below the Fed's target and further tapering will depend on economic data. The document also examines factors like China's economic transition and the implications for commodities.
1) U.S. bank stocks have rallied strongly in recent weeks and months, outperforming the broader market. The document discusses factors that may continue supporting gains in bank stocks, such as higher interest rates and an improving regulatory environment.
2) While further gains are expected, the document notes that bank stock performance may see some volatility, especially after such robust recent performance. Additional gains will depend on factors like rising Treasury yields and economic growth.
3) The document analyzes bank stock valuations, which remain attractive relative to historical levels. Improving profitability is expected to push valuations higher over the long term.
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent global economic and financial market developments. It summarizes that the ECB began a large quantitative easing program in March 2015 that has significantly impacted bond and currency markets. It also discusses that the US Federal Reserve signaled a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Emerging market currencies have come under pressure due to diverging monetary policies and lower oil prices. Developing country growth was broadly in line with forecasts in 2014, but indicators suggest softening activity in early 2015.
The FOMC projected two interest rate hikes in 2023, which was more hawkish than markets expected. As a result, gold prices plunged as higher rates reduce the appeal of holding non-yielding gold. While inflation remains high, a hawkish Fed is fundamentally negative for gold in the medium-term by strengthening the dollar and raising bond yields. Gold faces resistance around $1815 and support at $1803, but bullish technical signals and potentially peaking inflation could help gold prices rebound from current levels near $1800.
This document summarizes John Williams' speech about the current economic conditions and outlook for monetary policy. Some key points:
1) The economy has strengthened, with GDP and job growth picking up. However, unemployment remains above typical estimates of its natural rate and inflation below the Fed's 2% target.
2) The Fed has begun tapering its asset purchase program but monetary policy remains highly accommodative. Interest rates will stay near zero until unemployment falls further.
3) The Fed has tools like interest on reserves and reverse repos to manage the large balance sheet and control interest rates during normalization of policy. Any rate increases will be gradual and clearly communicated.
Gold and silver prices may rise due to weakness in the US dollar and ongoing US-China trade talks. Crude oil prices are supported by supply concerns from Saudi Arabia but US shale output may cap gains. Natural gas prices are mixed as winter demand winds down. Base metals on the LME were mostly higher with nickel leading gains. The report recommends buying MCX nickel for potential upside with support seen at 880 levels.
The document provides a prediction for the stock market and Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2014. It analyzes several indicators that could affect the market such as inflation rates, gold prices, and the Federal Reserve's tapering of quantitative easing. Based on these factors, the document predicts that inflation will increase in 2014, gold prices will rise, and the Dow Jones will decline, resulting in an overall bearish market.
The document summarizes the outlook for gold and silver prices in September 2016. It states that gold prices are expected to be volatile due to uncertainty around global monetary policies and the US Federal Reserve's decision about interest rate hikes. Rate hike probabilities for September and December Fed meetings have increased after comments from Janet Yellen. For September, gold prices are forecast to be in a range of $1250-1355/oz internationally and Rs.29,800-31,500/10gms domestically. Silver prices will likely move in tandem with gold. Internationally silver is expected to be $17.90-20.70/oz and domestically Rs.43,500-48,000/kg for September
The document summarizes key points from a weekly report by RBC Wealth Management on global economic and market developments:
1) Major central banks like the Fed, ECB, and BoE all met this week, with the Fed hiking rates as expected but the ECB and BoE leaving policy unchanged; the Fed projected slightly lower inflation but higher growth and lower unemployment for 2018.
2) Small business optimism in the U.S. reached its highest level since 1983 on expectations of tax reform and stronger economic conditions, though plans to raise wages remained muted; strong retail sales in November also point to robust Q4 economic growth.
3) Central banks are still seen as facing downside risks that could keep
The Pakistani rupee has significantly devalued against the US dollar in recent years, reaching its lowest point historically in May 2019. This devaluation is worsening Pakistan's already struggling economy by increasing the cost of imports and debt repayments. Multiple domestic economic issues are contributing to the rupee's decline, including large trade deficits, over-reliance on foreign aid, and political/security instability. While devaluation could boost exports in the long run, it is increasing inflation in the short term and hurting Pakistan's import-focused economy. The government and IMF are implementing measures to stabilize the currency, but Pakistan faces a difficult economic situation without long-term reforms.
The document provides information about the central bank of Canada, known as the Bank of Canada. It discusses the bank's structure, functions, tools used to implement monetary policy (such as cash management and open market operations), role as lender of last resort, impact on economic growth rates, and targeting of interest rates and inflation. Some key details include that the bank aims to promote economic and financial well-being in Canada, implements monetary policy to achieve its inflation target, and provides emergency liquidity to solvent but illiquid banks to prevent failures.
Dp 022017 oil market intelligence report_finalManish Das
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic factors and oil market fundamentals in February 2017. It discusses GDP growth and PMI indexes in major economies like China, the US, and Eurozone. It analyzes how US monetary policy and dollar strength correlate with oil prices. The report examines indicators that the oil market is moving toward balance in 2017 due to stabilizing supply and demand fundamentals, and the recent OPEC production cut agreement. It also reviews oil inventory levels, production trends and rig counts in the US market as well as demand in China.
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic factors and oil market fundamentals in February 2017. It discusses GDP growth and PMI indexes in major economies like China, the US, and Eurozone. It analyzes how US monetary policy and dollar strength correlate with oil prices. The report examines indicators that the oil market is moving toward balance in mid-2017 due to steady demand and OPEC production cuts. It also reviews supply and demand trends in the US, China, and OPEC markets.
The document discusses the impending interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. It analyzes key economic indicators like unemployment, wages, and inflation that the Federal Reserve uses to determine monetary policy. Based on strong recent economic data, the document predicts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September for the first time since 2006. It recommends overweighting investments in the United States due to its stronger economy relative to other countries and the divergence in monetary policies globally. The interest rate hike will impact asset classes differently, with stocks expected to perform well and commodities dipping as the dollar rises.
LBS Asset Allocation August Update - July 28, 2017Mark MacIsaac
Global economic data continues to show strong growth, but signs point to a peak in momentum. While US and Eurozone manufacturing surveys weakened, emerging market equities continue outperforming. Key indicators like flattening yield curves and disconnect between commodities and the US dollar suggest growth is likely decelerating. The document recommends slightly increasing exposure to emerging market equities and reducing underweight of other developed markets. It also recommends overweighting health care in the US and financials in Canada.
- Economic activity in the Houston metropolitan area grew at an annualized rate of 5.57% in May, with an upward revision of April's growth rate to 7.3%.
- Nonfarm payroll employment grew at an annualized rate of more than 3.2% in May, bringing the total jobs added since the recession to over 81,600.
- The unemployment rate improved slightly to 8.4% while the U.S. rate was higher at 9.1%.
CapitalStars Award Winning, SEBI registered, ISO certified investment advisory company. We provide intraday & positional services in equity derivative ,commodity & currency. Our research is highly skilled & experienced
For More Information Call On 9977499927.
Or 0731-6690000
Reduction in Reserve Requirement Ratio in ChinaHe Jiang
The document discusses China's reduction in its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to boost its slowing economy. It provides background on RRR and its role in China's monetary policy toolkit. While RRR cuts could increase inflation, speculation, and currency depreciation, current data shows inflation is low and economic growth has slowed, making RRR cuts necessary. The cuts will increase money supply and lending to stimulate the economy. Stock markets may rise in the long run due to improved economic expectations. RRR cuts are an effective policy given China's current economic conditions.
The document discusses conventions and forms used in various media products. It provides examples of conventions from music videos, such as close-ups in Adele's "Hello" video and dark lighting in Daughter's "Youth" video. It also discusses conventions for album covers, such as the relaxed field image on The Head and the Heart album and the color scheme and rural environment on the Autumn Glow album cover. The document aims to analyze how media products use, develop, or challenge conventions and relate conventions to conveying meaning and genre.
Ines D. Figueroa has over 10 years of experience in healthcare roles, most recently as a supervisor at Unity Recovery Group where she oversaw staff and assisted clients. She has a history of roles in medical facilities including as a registered medical assistant, phlebotomist, and medical technician.
The document discusses whether the U.S. economy has achieved "escape velocity," which refers to a self-sustaining economic recovery that allows the Fed to end its bond purchase program. It notes that many economists believe the U.S. will reach escape velocity in 2014 due to broad economic strength and reduced fiscal drag. However, inflation remains below the Fed's target and further tapering will depend on economic data. The document also examines factors like China's economic transition and the implications for commodities.
1) U.S. bank stocks have rallied strongly in recent weeks and months, outperforming the broader market. The document discusses factors that may continue supporting gains in bank stocks, such as higher interest rates and an improving regulatory environment.
2) While further gains are expected, the document notes that bank stock performance may see some volatility, especially after such robust recent performance. Additional gains will depend on factors like rising Treasury yields and economic growth.
3) The document analyzes bank stock valuations, which remain attractive relative to historical levels. Improving profitability is expected to push valuations higher over the long term.
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent global economic and financial market developments. It summarizes that the ECB began a large quantitative easing program in March 2015 that has significantly impacted bond and currency markets. It also discusses that the US Federal Reserve signaled a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Emerging market currencies have come under pressure due to diverging monetary policies and lower oil prices. Developing country growth was broadly in line with forecasts in 2014, but indicators suggest softening activity in early 2015.
The FOMC projected two interest rate hikes in 2023, which was more hawkish than markets expected. As a result, gold prices plunged as higher rates reduce the appeal of holding non-yielding gold. While inflation remains high, a hawkish Fed is fundamentally negative for gold in the medium-term by strengthening the dollar and raising bond yields. Gold faces resistance around $1815 and support at $1803, but bullish technical signals and potentially peaking inflation could help gold prices rebound from current levels near $1800.
This document summarizes John Williams' speech about the current economic conditions and outlook for monetary policy. Some key points:
1) The economy has strengthened, with GDP and job growth picking up. However, unemployment remains above typical estimates of its natural rate and inflation below the Fed's 2% target.
2) The Fed has begun tapering its asset purchase program but monetary policy remains highly accommodative. Interest rates will stay near zero until unemployment falls further.
3) The Fed has tools like interest on reserves and reverse repos to manage the large balance sheet and control interest rates during normalization of policy. Any rate increases will be gradual and clearly communicated.
Gold and silver prices may rise due to weakness in the US dollar and ongoing US-China trade talks. Crude oil prices are supported by supply concerns from Saudi Arabia but US shale output may cap gains. Natural gas prices are mixed as winter demand winds down. Base metals on the LME were mostly higher with nickel leading gains. The report recommends buying MCX nickel for potential upside with support seen at 880 levels.
The document provides a prediction for the stock market and Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2014. It analyzes several indicators that could affect the market such as inflation rates, gold prices, and the Federal Reserve's tapering of quantitative easing. Based on these factors, the document predicts that inflation will increase in 2014, gold prices will rise, and the Dow Jones will decline, resulting in an overall bearish market.
The document summarizes the outlook for gold and silver prices in September 2016. It states that gold prices are expected to be volatile due to uncertainty around global monetary policies and the US Federal Reserve's decision about interest rate hikes. Rate hike probabilities for September and December Fed meetings have increased after comments from Janet Yellen. For September, gold prices are forecast to be in a range of $1250-1355/oz internationally and Rs.29,800-31,500/10gms domestically. Silver prices will likely move in tandem with gold. Internationally silver is expected to be $17.90-20.70/oz and domestically Rs.43,500-48,000/kg for September
The document summarizes key points from a weekly report by RBC Wealth Management on global economic and market developments:
1) Major central banks like the Fed, ECB, and BoE all met this week, with the Fed hiking rates as expected but the ECB and BoE leaving policy unchanged; the Fed projected slightly lower inflation but higher growth and lower unemployment for 2018.
2) Small business optimism in the U.S. reached its highest level since 1983 on expectations of tax reform and stronger economic conditions, though plans to raise wages remained muted; strong retail sales in November also point to robust Q4 economic growth.
3) Central banks are still seen as facing downside risks that could keep
The Pakistani rupee has significantly devalued against the US dollar in recent years, reaching its lowest point historically in May 2019. This devaluation is worsening Pakistan's already struggling economy by increasing the cost of imports and debt repayments. Multiple domestic economic issues are contributing to the rupee's decline, including large trade deficits, over-reliance on foreign aid, and political/security instability. While devaluation could boost exports in the long run, it is increasing inflation in the short term and hurting Pakistan's import-focused economy. The government and IMF are implementing measures to stabilize the currency, but Pakistan faces a difficult economic situation without long-term reforms.
The document provides information about the central bank of Canada, known as the Bank of Canada. It discusses the bank's structure, functions, tools used to implement monetary policy (such as cash management and open market operations), role as lender of last resort, impact on economic growth rates, and targeting of interest rates and inflation. Some key details include that the bank aims to promote economic and financial well-being in Canada, implements monetary policy to achieve its inflation target, and provides emergency liquidity to solvent but illiquid banks to prevent failures.
Dp 022017 oil market intelligence report_finalManish Das
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic factors and oil market fundamentals in February 2017. It discusses GDP growth and PMI indexes in major economies like China, the US, and Eurozone. It analyzes how US monetary policy and dollar strength correlate with oil prices. The report examines indicators that the oil market is moving toward balance in 2017 due to stabilizing supply and demand fundamentals, and the recent OPEC production cut agreement. It also reviews oil inventory levels, production trends and rig counts in the US market as well as demand in China.
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic factors and oil market fundamentals in February 2017. It discusses GDP growth and PMI indexes in major economies like China, the US, and Eurozone. It analyzes how US monetary policy and dollar strength correlate with oil prices. The report examines indicators that the oil market is moving toward balance in mid-2017 due to steady demand and OPEC production cuts. It also reviews supply and demand trends in the US, China, and OPEC markets.
The document discusses the impending interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. It analyzes key economic indicators like unemployment, wages, and inflation that the Federal Reserve uses to determine monetary policy. Based on strong recent economic data, the document predicts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September for the first time since 2006. It recommends overweighting investments in the United States due to its stronger economy relative to other countries and the divergence in monetary policies globally. The interest rate hike will impact asset classes differently, with stocks expected to perform well and commodities dipping as the dollar rises.
LBS Asset Allocation August Update - July 28, 2017Mark MacIsaac
Global economic data continues to show strong growth, but signs point to a peak in momentum. While US and Eurozone manufacturing surveys weakened, emerging market equities continue outperforming. Key indicators like flattening yield curves and disconnect between commodities and the US dollar suggest growth is likely decelerating. The document recommends slightly increasing exposure to emerging market equities and reducing underweight of other developed markets. It also recommends overweighting health care in the US and financials in Canada.
- Economic activity in the Houston metropolitan area grew at an annualized rate of 5.57% in May, with an upward revision of April's growth rate to 7.3%.
- Nonfarm payroll employment grew at an annualized rate of more than 3.2% in May, bringing the total jobs added since the recession to over 81,600.
- The unemployment rate improved slightly to 8.4% while the U.S. rate was higher at 9.1%.
CapitalStars Award Winning, SEBI registered, ISO certified investment advisory company. We provide intraday & positional services in equity derivative ,commodity & currency. Our research is highly skilled & experienced
For More Information Call On 9977499927.
Or 0731-6690000
Reduction in Reserve Requirement Ratio in ChinaHe Jiang
The document discusses China's reduction in its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to boost its slowing economy. It provides background on RRR and its role in China's monetary policy toolkit. While RRR cuts could increase inflation, speculation, and currency depreciation, current data shows inflation is low and economic growth has slowed, making RRR cuts necessary. The cuts will increase money supply and lending to stimulate the economy. Stock markets may rise in the long run due to improved economic expectations. RRR cuts are an effective policy given China's current economic conditions.
The document discusses conventions and forms used in various media products. It provides examples of conventions from music videos, such as close-ups in Adele's "Hello" video and dark lighting in Daughter's "Youth" video. It also discusses conventions for album covers, such as the relaxed field image on The Head and the Heart album and the color scheme and rural environment on the Autumn Glow album cover. The document aims to analyze how media products use, develop, or challenge conventions and relate conventions to conveying meaning and genre.
Ines D. Figueroa has over 10 years of experience in healthcare roles, most recently as a supervisor at Unity Recovery Group where she oversaw staff and assisted clients. She has a history of roles in medical facilities including as a registered medical assistant, phlebotomist, and medical technician.
NANOG32 - DNS Anomalies and Their Impacts on DNS Cache ServersChika Yoshimura
1. Virus and worm activity, such as the Antinny worm, can overload DNS cache servers by repeatedly querying for domain names. When the authoritative server removed the A record in response, cache servers were flooded with over 700 queries per second.
2. Large RRSets that exceeded 512 bytes in size caused cache servers to switch to TCP queries when authoritative servers returned a truncated response. However, if the authoritative servers did not support TCP or EDNS0, the cache servers would time out while waiting for a response.
3. Lessons learned include recommending that authoritative server administrators check settings to support TCP queries, limit RRSet sizes, and consider generic blackhole addresses for DDoS mitigation rather than removing
The document is a resume for Jitendra Kumar Shahani. It summarizes his personal details such as name, address, contact information, date of birth, marital status, languages spoken and hobbies. It also lists his educational qualifications, work experience operating tower cranes and hoists for construction companies in Dubai and Mumbai between 2008-present. His skills include strong communication, time management and the responsibility of operating and maintaining tower cranes and hoists.
To become a renowned tax attorney in California, one must develop strong personal qualities like punctuality, availability, good listening skills, and patience. As a tax attorney, technical skills are also important - one must be able to work proficiently with limited information to represent clients against the IRS. It is best to start gaining knowledge of tax law from a young age, do well in law school, and get good grades and recommendations from teachers. Online reviews from satisfied clients can also help an attorney gain recognition.
This video analyzes Katy Perry's "Thinking of You" music video through several paragraphs. It discusses the narrative elements of the video, with Katy portraying a character and flashbacks showing her relationship. Neutral colors are used to focus on the story. Katy wears risque costumes from the 1940s but the camera focuses on her face rather than being overly sexualized. References to her appearance help popularize her as an artist. The analysis also discusses conventions like fade effects and jump cuts used in the editing of pop videos.
This presentation to the SCT Steering Committee in January 2009 provided an overview of affordable housing in Snohomish County. It defined what is considered affordable housing, who needs affordable housing, where affordable housing exists in the county and what it is like, and how affordable housing is created through public and private financing partnerships and the efforts of housing authorities, non-profits and local governments. The presentation aimed to provide background information on affordable housing issues in the county to inform the committee's upcoming discussion on the feasibility of inter-jurisdictional collaboration.
This document discusses the history and growth of internet usage in India. It notes that internet access first became available in India in 1995, accessed primarily through slow dial-up connections. Usage expanded in the late 1990s and 2000s with improvements in speeds and declines in costs. The growth of mobile internet beginning in the late 2000s further expanded access, especially in rural areas. The internet now accounts for an estimated 3-5% of India's GDP, a figure expected to continue growing rapidly with further expansion of e-commerce, digital payments, entertainment, and other internet-based services and industries.
The document outlines the British royal family tree, beginning with Queen Elizabeth II and her husband Prince Philip. It then introduces their four children - Prince Charles, Princess Anne, Prince Andrew, and Prince Edward. Two of Charles' sons, Prince William and Prince Harry, are also shown along with their spouses and children. The multi-generational family tree shows the lineage of descendants from Queen Elizabeth II down to her great-grandchildren.
Presentation on Rural-Urban Partnership for economic development made at the Habitat 3 conference held in Quito, Ecuador, 17-20 October 2016, by Joaquim Oliveir Martins, Head Regional Development Policy Division.
www.oecd.org/gov/regional-policy/
Principles of the Constitution (USHC 1.5)Tom Richey
This PowerPoint presentation was designed to review the principles of the United States Constitution with high school students who are preparing for the South Carolina End of Course (EOC) examination in US History.
Rose has several classmates including Mary, Mike, Cathy, Lisa, John, Tim, David, Peter, and Susan. The document describes where each of these classmates are situated in relation to one another in the classroom.
The document discusses the sources of law. It identifies the key formal sources of law as legislation, judicial precedents, and treaties. Legislation includes acts passed by parliament and subordinate legislation. Judicial precedents refer to binding case law from superior courts. Material sources that influence legal development include customs, standards of justice, and juristic writings. Non-formal sources lack formal recognition but can still persuade, such as customs, equity, and public policy. Scholars have debated the terminology around "sources of law" and whether it refers to the authority, knowledge, causes, or organs of law.
The report provides an overview of macroeconomic trends and outlooks for various regions and sectors. For the domestic economy, while facing some headwinds, growth is expected to continue in 2016 driven by strong consumer spending. In Europe, recovery is expected to continue but at a slow pace due to global uncertainties. China is undergoing an economic transition and growth is projected to slow, posing risks globally. Emerging markets face challenges from China's slowdown and commodity price declines but conditions are projected to improve in 2016.
BU 701Professor Linda MeltzerAssignment # 1Summe.docxhartrobert670
BU 701 Professor Linda Meltzer
Assignment # 1 Summer 2015
Topic: The Fed's Impact on the Financial Markets
Due Date: June 11th
In Module 2, we are focused on the Federal Reserve: its organzation, its main role, goals and targets, and its tools. For this assignment, you will look for and review:
· Latest FOMC Federal Open Market Committee, the policy making body of the Fed) minutes which is a detailed transcript of what happened at the last Fed meeting, and staff and Governor's outlook for financial markets, economy and future expectations. The latest minutes as of now is from April 28-29 meeting and was released in May. Many ways to find it. Make sure you look at whole transcript and not the summary.
· Find latest speech or comments made by Chair Yellen AFTER the meeting in April. She speaks frequently and CNBC picks up her comments so should be very easy to find. Also, find what analysts have said about Yellen's comments.
In a 1-2 page writeup, discuss:
1) key economic conditions that the FED is looking closely at and its significance to their policy as to whether they are going to raise interest rates in 2015;
2) From your reading of the material, how does the FED's action impact financial markets (bonds, stocks, money markets);
3) Has Chair Yellen's recent comments (and feel free to explore other members of the FED eg Gov. Brainerd who has spoken to CNBC other day) changed from last meeting? How?; and
4) You can use any opinions written by financial experts (you can find their analysis on CNBC, CNN, Marketwatch et al) just make sure to footnote or provide sources.
Note: As this is a writing intensive class, please take care with writing grammatically correct, capitalize where needed, and full sentences. No slang.
Grading Guide: Clinical Assessment in Mental Health Centers Newspaper Article
PSYCH/655 Version 2
1
Grading Guide
Clinical Assessment in Mental Health Centers Newspaper Article
This assignment is due in Week Six.
Content
60 Percent
Points Earned
X/6
· Discusses issues with culturally informed assessments
· Discusses issues with assessments of addiction and substance abuse
· Discusses issues with custody evaluations
Comments:
Organization and Development
20 Percent
Points Earned
X/2
· The paper is 1,000 to 1,250 words in length.
· The paper is clear and organized; major points are supported by details, examples, or analysis.
· The tone aligns with the assignment’s purpose and is geared toward the appropriate audience.
· The paper provides relevant and sufficient background on the topic.
· The paper is logical, flows, and reviews the major points.
Comments:
Mechanics and Format
20 Percent
Points Earned
X/2
· The assignment file is presentable and functional.
· Rules of grammar, usage, and punctuation are followed; spelling is correct.
· The paper—including the title page, reference page, tables, and any appendices—is consistent with APA guidelines.
Comments:
Additional Comments:
Total Earned
X/10 ...
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
The document provides a quarterly review by Seaport Investment Management. It summarizes the volatile market conditions in Q1 2016, with global equities rebounding from losses to end barely positive. It discusses ongoing economic slowing and downward revisions to growth forecasts. Seaport's portfolio returned 2.2% in Q1 through a defensive structure that has buffered volatility while providing stable income. The portfolio remains defensively positioned across asset classes like equity, credit, and mortgage to balance upside potential with downside protection.
This document summarizes an economic conference held by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on October 15, 2014. It discusses current economic conditions in the US and Arkansas. The US economy is seeing steady job growth and falling inflation and unemployment. However, a stronger dollar and weaker global growth could impact exports. In Arkansas, farm income decreased while farmland values fell slightly. The latest survey suggests Arkansas farmland prices may have peaked. Regional economic growth has exceeded the national average, though job growth in Arkansas has been half the national rate and incomes remain below average.
U.S. MarketBeats provide an overview of quarterly CRE activity and trends, a snapshot of current economic and capital market conditions as well as market-level statistics on key metrics.
The U.S. economy in 2016 was characterized by steady growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep declines in global equity markets in response to concerns about a slowdown in China, the Europe replaced Asia as the focal point of global anxiety after the Brexit vote. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unexpectedly elected Donald Trump as President. Despite uncertainty, the economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per month during 2016.
This document provides a forecast by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida for the U.S. economy from 2014 to 2017. It finds that overreaching laws and regulations like the Affordable Care Act and Dodd-Frank Act are inhibiting economic growth by creating policy uncertainty and choking off business activity. Real GDP growth is expected to gradually increase from 1.6% in late 2014 to 2.7% in 2017 as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, while consumer spending and housing recover. However, payroll growth will remain sluggish due to the policy environment, holding unemployment rates steady near 6% through 2017.
This document provides a summary of the effects of US monetary policy normalization on global central banks and emerging market economies. It discusses how the gradual raising of US interest rates by the Federal Reserve will pose challenges for some economies. Central banks in developing countries with large current account deficits or reliance on commodities exports may have to raise rates despite economic weakness to support their currencies as the US dollar rises. However, the effects are not expected to be as severe as in past episodes given the stronger US economy and continued easing elsewhere. Central banks are advised to reduce dollar debt, stabilize inflation, and pursue reforms to bolster credibility during this transition period.
In this issue:
1. TD Wealth Asset Allocation Committee: Market outlook: the year ahead
2. TD Economics: A foundation for uncertain times
3. TD Wealth: New principal residence exemption rules
DCR TrendLine shares analyses of trends and happenings in the non-employee workforce industry. The June edition looks at the impact of oil prices on employment in the oil and gas industry and trends in talent management. We continue our global series on the ASEAN region by looking at Indonesia’s slowing economy. This month also features our quarterly topic “What’s Trending in the Temp Market.” We also discuss job prospects for the graduating class of 2015. Our feature article hones in on the need for simplicity in the workforce, and provides some ways to get started. Finally, we examine the long-term economic impact of the devastating earthquakes experienced by Nepal recently
DCR National Temp Wage Index
Employment Prospects for 2015 Grads
Indonesia’s Slowing Economy and Workforce Challenges
What’s Trending in the Temp Market – Q2 of 2015
Industry Highlight: Oil and Gas Index
4 Talent Management Trends
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication
Nepal Earthquake: The Long-Term Economic Impact
In this issue:
TD Wealth: Developing a roadmap for success
TD Economics: Oil prices remain a wild card for Canada’s outlook
TD Wealth Asset Allocation Committee: Market Outlook
The Federal Reserve began normalizing monetary policy in December 2015 by raising interest rates for the first time since 2008. However, normalization is expected to be a gradual process that takes place over several years as the economy continues to strengthen. Most other major central banks around the world are still maintaining very low or negative interest rates and continue quantitative easing programs. The lack of inflation pressure globally helps explain why normalization is occurring slowly and is not coordinated internationally. Reasons for the Federal Reserve to continue normalizing policy include avoiding potential distortions from prolonged low rates and returning monetary policy to the stable framework seen in the 1980s-2000s period.
Ideas:
-Get away from the U.S. bias - think tactical globally
-Keep an eye on USD / Oil / China / Earnings
-Europe is cheap and growth potential creates opportunities
-Japan: both hedged and unhedged opportunities to explore
-Global consumer markets: credit space and EM consumer markets
The document discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets in 2016. It makes the following key points:
1) The global economy is transitioning from a period dominated by US growth to a more balanced growth environment across developed and emerging economies. This "Great Rebalancing" began in 2015 and is expected to continue in 2016, leading to more convergence in economic outcomes.
2) Growth is expected to be similar across major developed economies in 2016, including the US, Europe, Japan, and UK, marking a change from recent years where the US significantly outpaced other regions.
3) European and Japanese equities are expected to outperform US equities in 2016, driven by expectations for stronger earnings growth
- The document discusses Morgan Stanley's outlook for the global economy and financial markets in 2016.
- It predicts that economic growth will converge across developed economies like the US, Eurozone, UK and Japan, with little difference expected in real GDP growth between these regions.
- Earnings growth is also expected to accelerate in Europe and Japan, outpacing recent trends in the US and emerging from an "extreme divergence."
- However, returns may remain volatile as economic outcomes converge due to diverging rates of change and differences in nominal GDP growth across regions. The strength of the US dollar also poses a key risk.
The Hitchhiker's Guide to Yellen's Speech
We spent all week waiting anxiously to see what Our Glorious Leader would say only to get a confused mash-up of central bank water-cooler conversation.
If you want to know what she really said - and, more importantly, didn't say - you might like to read this translation.
- The document discusses the recent volatility in global stock markets and the fear that has gripped investors. While there are valid economic concerns, fear has become contagious and may be overstating the risks.
- The US economy has held up better than expected so far in 2016, with steady job growth and consumer spending. However, tightening financial conditions have led to declines in stock valuations.
- Central banks are again trying to ease financial conditions through further monetary stimulus in order to support the economy and stabilize markets, though investor faith in their actions may be waning.
Financial Wealth Management benefits a basic knowledge of the current economic climate. Download this free report on the state of the economy, government, and how they affect YOU.
The document discusses Travis County's Fiscal Year 2017 budget guidelines. It provides an economic outlook and background on the county and state economies. It then presents a five-year financial forecast for Travis County's operating budget to help plan priorities and budgets for FY2017 and beyond. Growth is expected to continue but challenges around housing, transportation and state funding could impact the county budget.
Similar to Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy in a Changing World (20)
The Rise and Fall of Ponzi Schemes in America.pptxDiana Rose
Ponzi schemes, a notorious form of financial fraud, have plagued America’s investment landscape for decades. Named after Charles Ponzi, who orchestrated one of the most infamous schemes in the early 20th century, these fraudulent operations promise high returns with little or no risk, only to collapse and leave investors with significant losses. This article explores the nature of Ponzi schemes, notable cases in American history, their impact on victims, and measures to prevent falling prey to such scams.
Understanding Ponzi Schemes
A Ponzi scheme is an investment scam where returns are paid to earlier investors using the capital from newer investors, rather than from legitimate profit earned. The scheme relies on a constant influx of new investments to continue paying the promised returns. Eventually, when the flow of new money slows down or stops, the scheme collapses, leaving the majority of investors with substantial financial losses.
Historical Context: Charles Ponzi and His Legacy
Charles Ponzi is the namesake of this deceptive practice. In the 1920s, Ponzi promised investors in Boston a 50% return within 45 days or 100% return in 90 days through arbitrage of international reply coupons. Initially, he paid returns as promised, not from profits, but from the investments of new participants. When his scheme unraveled, it resulted in losses exceeding $20 million (equivalent to about $270 million today).
Notable American Ponzi Schemes
1. Bernie Madoff: Perhaps the most notorious Ponzi scheme in recent history, Bernie Madoff’s fraud involved $65 billion. Madoff, a well-respected figure in the financial industry, promised steady, high returns through a secretive investment strategy. His scheme lasted for decades before collapsing in 2008, devastating thousands of investors, including individuals, charities, and institutional clients.
2. Allen Stanford: Through his company, Stanford Financial Group, Allen Stanford orchestrated a $7 billion Ponzi scheme, luring investors with fraudulent certificates of deposit issued by his offshore bank. Stanford promised high returns and lavish lifestyle benefits to his investors, which ultimately led to a 110-year prison sentence for the financier in 2012.
3. Tom Petters: In a scheme that lasted more than a decade, Tom Petters ran a $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme, using his company, Petters Group Worldwide. He claimed to buy and sell consumer electronics, but in reality, he used new investments to pay off old debts and fund his extravagant lifestyle. Petters was convicted in 2009 and sentenced to 50 years in prison.
4. Eric Dalius and Saivian: Eric Dalius, a prominent figure behind Saivian, a cashback program promising high returns, is under scrutiny for allegedly orchestrating a Ponzi scheme. Saivian enticed investors with promises of up to 20% cash back on everyday purchases. However, investigations suggest that the returns were paid using new investments rather than legitimate profits. The collapse of Saivian l
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Madhya Pradesh, the "Heart of India," boasts a rich tapestry of culture and heritage, from ancient dynasties to modern developments. Explore its land records, historical landmarks, and vibrant traditions. From agricultural expanses to urban growth, Madhya Pradesh offers a unique blend of the ancient and modern.
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
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In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
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Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy in a Changing World
1. The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
Economic Conditions and Monetary
Policy in a Changing World
Remarks before the Dallas chapters of Financial Executives International, the
Association for Corporate Growth and the National Association of Corporate
Directors
Robert S. Kaplan
President and CEO
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Dallas
January 11, 2016
This speech text is embargoed until
6:50 p.m. Central time (7:50 p.m. Eastern).
2. 1
Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy in a
Changing World
Robert S. Kaplan
Thank you for that kind introduction. Thank you for having me here this evening. It’s a
great pleasure for me to speak with you.
For those who I haven’t had a chance to meet yet, I was an investment banker and
financial services executive for almost 23 years and then a professor at Harvard Business
School for 10 years. I grew up in Kansas, went to the University of Kansas and spent a lot
of time as a youngster traveling the state of Texas with my father, who was a jewelry
salesman. I have always had a desire to do public service, so I was very glad to have the
opportunity to lead the Dallas Fed.
I have been president of the Dallas Fed since the beginning of September. It’s a great
honor to be able to serve the people of the Eleventh Federal Reserve District (which
includes Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico) and the nation. I have
spent the past four months getting to know business and community leaders, as well as
talking with many other people throughout this district. I have attended three Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings and developed good working relationships
with the other Federal Reserve Bank presidents as well as the Board of Governors.
I have been impressed with the people who live and work in this district and with our
dedicated staff at the Dallas Fed, as well as those who work in the Federal Reserve
System across the nation. I say regularly that, as a citizen, if you could see what I get to
see every day, you would be very proud and gratified by the work of the people of the
Federal Reserve.
With that background, I’d like to speak tonight about the regional, national and global
economies and then talk about implications for monetary policy. If there’s a theme, it’s
how the world has changed and keeps changing. Our job at the Fed is to work to
understand these changes, be continually open to learning and asking questions, and then
strive to make good decisions for the citizens of this country.
As I speak this evening, my remarks represent my own views and do not necessarily
reflect the views of my colleagues in the Federal Reserve System.
3. 2
The Eleventh District: Discussion of Energy
I’ll begin my remarks with a discussion of the energy industry, given its vital importance
to this district and the nation. Since the December Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting, the overall tone in the oil and gas sector has
soured, as expectations have decidedly shifted to an “even lower for even longer” price
outlook.
OPEC seems to have abandoned any pretense of production quotas, and Saudi Arabia
seems to be determined to maintain its market share of production. As a consequence, it
appears that any reduction in supply from Saudi Arabia will have to be accompanied by
proportionate declines from other middle-eastern nations and Russia—this, so far, seems
unlikely.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) inventories continue
to increase and now stand at roughly 300 million barrels above their historical five-year
average.1
For 2015, the Department of Energy estimates that global supply exceeded
global demand by an average of 1.7 million barrels per day.2
As of today, this gap has
declined to approximately 1 million barrels per day and is expected to ultimately drop to
600,000 barrels per day by year-end 2016.3
Our economists at the Dallas Fed believe that
global excess inventories aren’t likely to begin falling until 2017. If we are wrong, the
risks are that this rebalancing process will take even longer.
This situation is further complicated by the expectation that Iran sanctions will likely be
lifted in early 2016, and Iran will increase its production shortly thereafter. Furthermore,
our industry contacts suggest that Iran has 30–40 million barrels of oil in storage which,
over time, could be sold into the world markets. The prospect of all or a portion of this
supply coming into the market sooner than expected has increased uncertainty and
negatively impacted oil prices.
Another complicating factor is that, despite rig count declines and additional cuts in
capital spending, U.S. oil production declines have been slow to materialize. This reflects
increased output from the Gulf of Mexico, the time lag between capital spending cuts and
production declines, as well as the fact that shale-well productivity has improved over the
past several years.
All this suggests that 2016 will be a challenging year for oil producers. On the positive
side, lower oil prices translate into lower gasoline prices for consumers. These lower
prices have helped generate stronger automobile driving activity as well as record auto
sales in the U.S., and underpin our expectation of a 1.4-million-barrel-per-day increase in
global consumption in 2016.4
4. 3
Given these various cross-currents, the ultimate timing of reaching market
production/consumption balance remains uncertain. As a consequence, we expect to see
continued low prices and price volatility, as well as more bankruptcies, mergers and
restructurings in the energy industry.
Broad Economic Conditions in the Eleventh District
Certainly, the Eleventh District economy has been adversely impacted by low oil prices
as well as strength in the dollar. As a result of these challenges, Texas job growth slowed
to approximately 1.3 percent in 2015, and Dallas Fed economists expect similar growth
in 2016.5
This compares with the 3.6 percent job growth the state experienced in 2014.6
While the Texas energy and manufacturing sectors have been losing jobs, the state’s
service sector has shown steady, moderate expansion. We have seen particular strength in
the health care and the leisure and hospitality industries. We have also seen recent
strength in construction employment in the state.
It is worth noting that migration of firms and people has been a key underpinning of
economic growth in this state. Since 2000, the average annual rate of population growth
in Texas has been almost a full percentage point higher than the rest of the nation.7
Despite some slowing due to the downturn in energy, I expect this migration trend to
continue albeit at a slower rate. Due to the diversified nature of the state’s economy and
continued attractiveness of the state as a destination for firms and people, I am very
optimistic about the resiliency and overall economic outlook for this district in the years
ahead.
Economic Conditions in the Nation
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Employment
Dallas Fed economists estimate that the U.S. economy grew approximately 2 percent in
2015. While this rate of growth is sluggish by historical standards, it was sufficient to
drive down the rate of unemployment from 5.6 percent at the beginning of the year to 5.0
percent by year-end.8
Our economists expect 2016 GDP growth of somewhere between
2.0 and 2.5 percent.
As with the Eleventh District, the U.S. service sector has been the primary growth engine
in the United States. A strong dollar combined with relatively weak growth abroad
continues to weigh on U.S. manufacturing and net exports.
In 2015, nonfarm payroll job growth averaged 221,000 jobs per month. Dallas Fed
economists estimate that the economy needs to add somewhere between 100,000 and
5. 4
150,000 jobs per month in order to keep the unemployment rate roughly constant. We
expect sufficient job growth in 2016 to continue to drive down the rate of unemployment.
To gauge progress toward our full-employment mandate, we closely monitor various
measures of labor market slack beyond the headline unemployment rate. In particular, we
look at the labor force participation rate, which is the share of the population age 16 and
older that is either employed or actively looking for work. This percentage is currently at
62.6 percent, which is 3.5 percentage points lower than its prerecession level.9
At the
Dallas Fed, we assess that while some of this decline is cyclical, more than half is due to
aging workforce demographics. (I’ll talk more about this in a few moments.)
We also closely monitor the number of “would be” workers who are “discouraged” and
have given up looking for work, as well as the number of part-time workers who would
convert to full time in a stronger job market. Both of these measures have recently shown
improvement, which suggests to us that labor slack is declining and we are making
progress toward our full-employment objective.
Inflation
Headline inflation readings continue to run below the 2 percent longer-run objective set
by the Federal Reserve. In November, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
price index was only 0.4 percent higher than a year earlier.10
At the Dallas Fed, our preferred measure of inflation is the Trimmed Mean PCE inflation
rate, which “trims out” items with the most extreme upward or downward monthly
changes. We believe this trimming gives us a measure of trend inflation that is more
reliable than so-called “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy prices. The 12-
month change in the trimmed mean has run between 1.6 and 1.7 percent since early 2014.
The stability of this measure, in combination with anticipated further reductions in labor
market slack, gives us confidence that headline PCE inflation will gradually increase to 2
percent by year-end 2017.
World Economic Conditions
We estimate that 2015 global GDP growth, excluding the U.S., was 2.5 percent.11
This
headline growth rate masks a very uneven underlying picture. For example, emerging
economies with high levels of exposure to commodities showed significant declines in
growth rates. Brazil, Russia and Venezuela were in outright recession during 2015, and
we expect negative GDP growth again in these countries in 2016. On the other hand,
India’s GDP growth rate was 7.3 percent in 2015 and is expected to increase further in
2016.12
6. 5
Looking ahead to 2016, Dallas Fed economists expect global growth, excluding the U.S.,
to gradually improve to 2.9 percent. While this reflects improvements in both advanced
as well as emerging-market economies, it is relatively sluggish compared with past rates
of growth and comes with some meaningful level of downside risk.
One potential concern is China. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that China
growth will slow to approximately 6.3 percent in 2016 versus a reported growth rate of
6.9 percent in 2015.13
This slowing has been manifested in dramatic swings in the
Chinese stock market (which have, in turn, spilled over into global financial markets), as
well as in Chinese government actions intended to address some of their key economic
challenges.
Overcapacity in key industries (particularly in state-owned enterprises), higher levels of
leverage, and aging demographics are key challenges likely to impede growth. These
issues are secular and will take years to address. In addition, China has embarked on a
longer-term initiative to transition its economy to be more consumer and service-sector
based from one that is heavily manufacturing and export based.
As a result of these factors, it seems probable that the world will have to adjust to lower
levels of Chinese growth in the years ahead. Slower Chinese growth has the potential to
further impact commodity prices and create headwinds for GDP growth in the U.S. and
other economies.
Openness to Learning in a Changing World
As I mentioned earlier, I grew up in Kansas and went to college in Kansas. As I was
starting my professional career, there were a few things that I (and seemingly) everyone
else knew to be true:
• A morning and an afternoon local newspaper were essential for most major cities.
• Japan would dominate the world economy for the foreseeable future. If you
wanted to understand cutting-edge business, it was wise to intensively study Japan
and its practices.
• Home prices might not always go up, but we knew that they would never
substantially go down. My parents were lucky to have gotten a home mortgage at
a rate below 8 percent—and I was unlikely to be so lucky.
We had never heard of the Internet, mobile devices or online news/content providers,
which would allow us to get information immediately and would substantially disrupt the
traditional newspaper industry. Japan suffered through decades of slow growth and
increasingly challenging issues with high levels of government debt, a shrinking
7. 6
population and aging demographics. And we know what happened with housing and
interest rates.
The point is, what we know “for sure” is not always correct. The world evolves, and we
have to be open-minded and adapt to the changes. We have to be willing to learn and,
when the facts warrant, modify our views. This way of thinking is particularly important
to me as a participant in the monetary policy deliberations of the FOMC.
Because the world has changed and keeps changing, some of the key tools we use to
assess economic conditions must be assessed and reassessed in this context. For example,
the Phillips curve has been a critical tool in analyzing the interaction of unemployment
rates with inflation. In this current recovery, we are moving toward increasingly low rates
of unemployment, but we have not yet seen an increase in headline inflation. Of course,
this inflation shortfall may be due to transitory factors, but we are also aware there may
be other more fundamental issues at play here.
Additionally, during this recovery, the labor-force participation rate has remained low by
historical standards. As a result, some have questioned whether the headline
unemployment rate remains the best measure of labor slack.
Why is this happening?
I believe there are several key factors that may be impacting economic conditions and
should influence the way we think about monetary policy.
Demographic Trends
The United States and other major economies, including Europe, Japan and China, are all
facing the challenge of aging demographics. For example, in the United States, as the
baby-boomer generation moves into retirement age, the fraction of the labor force age 55
or older is projected to increase from approximately 21.7 percent in 2014 to almost 25
percent in 2024.14
Looking further ahead, the median age of the labor force is expected to
rise steadily through 2060.15
Aging demographics are likely to negatively impact labor force participation rates. As I
mentioned earlier, the labor force participation rate in the U.S. has fallen about 3.5
percentage points since late 2007.16
While the 2008–09 recession certainly had a great
impact, we believe that more than half of the decline can be explained by aging.
Individuals age 55 and over tend to have lower participation rates than do younger
individuals.
8. 7
Based on current demographic trends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that the
overall labor force participation rate will decline 2 percentage points further to 60.9
percent by 2024.17
Since GDP growth is substantially impacted by growth in the labor
force plus improvements in labor productivity, these trends suggest that, assuming no
mitigating actions are taken, potential GDP growth rates may well be negatively
impacted in the future.
In addition, these demographics suggest that the “dependency ratio”—which is crudely
measured as the ratio of population under age 18 or over 64 to the population 18–64—
will rise. The implication is that an increasing share of the population will “depend” on
those of working age to pay for future medical and retirement benefits. This higher
dependency ratio may have implications for the ability of countries to meet their
obligations for retirement and medical benefits.
Of course, these demographic forecasts are just that—forecasts. Policymakers and other
agents have the ability to take actions, and events can occur, which alter or offset these
trends, improve productivity or otherwise mitigate their impact. The point is that, as
policymakers, we have to be aware of them and be open to adjusting our thinking and our
policies in ways that take them into account.
Levels of Debt to GDP
Another factor potentially impacting economic conditions is growth in the levels of debt
relative to GDP. For much of my lifetime, the household, business and government
sectors of the United States have been able to increase their levels of debt relative to
overall GDP. This has had the effect, during some periods, of increasing GDP growth
rates. Some have referred to this as the so-called “debt super cycle” and suggested that, in
the future, additional borrowing will more likely need to be supported by corresponding
growth in incomes.
Certainly, since the Great Recession, the household sector in the U.S. has been
deleveraging. However, business debt as a share of GDP has grown somewhat (although
importantly, the financial sector has deleveraged), and government debt to GDP has also
risen. Currently, federal debt held by the public is approximately 73 percent of GDP, up
from 33 percent in 200018
and, in addition, the present value of future unfunded
obligations for Medicare, Social Security and other entitlement programs is estimated by
the Congressional Budget Office to be approximately $40 trillion.19
These unfunded
nondiscretionary obligations are expected to cause the U.S. budget deficit to materially
increase as a percentage of GDP over the next 10 years and beyond.20
This path may
prove to be unsustainable.
9. 8
Outside the U.S., high levels of debt to GDP in certain countries are likely to impact
these countries’ future ability to grow. China and Japan, for example, may find it difficult
to stimulate GDP by growing debt beyond levels supported by income growth.
The level of borrowing relative to GDP is a key factor I will be watching, in the U.S. and
abroad, in assessing economic conditions in the months and years ahead.
Globalization
Today, U.S. companies are able to source and produce products and services in multiple
countries to lower their costs. Increasingly, U.S. consumers are able to benefit from
lower-cost imports as well as lower-cost services due to globalization. Companies
increasingly think about their labor, products and services with a global mindset. This
greater amount of global connectivity means that economic conditions in each country
can much more quickly impact economic conditions in the U.S. and other countries.
One implication of this is that domestic labor slack has to be assessed in a global context.
This means that the headline unemployment rate necessary to achieve full employment
can likely be lower for a time than we’ve been historically accustomed to without
triggering undue inflation pressures.
The point is that, as the world becomes even more interconnected and the “transmission”
of global economic conditions accelerates, we have to increasingly consider world
economic conditions in assessing our own.
Increasing Rates of Disruption
Consumers increasingly are able to use technology to rapidly compare prices for goods
and services. In addition, new business models are emerging, which offer products and
services that “disrupt” older models—think Uber versus a taxi or car service, Airbnb
versus a hotel room, Amazon versus a retail store. These new business models are having
the impact of lowering prices and improving service and convenience. They are also
helping improve the bargaining power of consumers.
These trends are encouraging many companies to look for new ways to use technology to
lower their costs as well as improve productivity and customer service. It may be hard to
measure, but I certainly believe these changes are putting some downward pressure on
the prices of many types of goods and services.
Certainly, there are various exceptions to this trend such as prescription drugs and
affordable luxuries (like a Starbucks coffee). However, increasingly, business models are
being disrupted in ways that would not have been imagined only a few years ago. These
10. 9
changes are impacting the way companies think about traditional capital spending and
their choices for how to spend additional resources.
It is difficult to determine the ultimate impacts of aging demographics, high levels of
indebtedness, globalization and increasing disruption. However, these are key issues that
policymakers will need to better understand in order to assess economic conditions and
formulate appropriate economic policies.
Monetary Policy
I agree with, and argued for, the decision made in December by the FOMC to increase
the federal funds rate. In our post-FOMC meeting statement, we emphasized that, even
with this increase, monetary policy remains accommodative. We also emphasized that
future removals of accommodation will likely be done gradually and will depend on our
ongoing assessment of incoming economic data and overall economic conditions.
As we go forward, I will be closely monitoring various measures of labor market slack to
assess progress toward our full-employment objective. As the unemployment rate moves
below 5 percent, I would expect to see the inflation rate gradually increase toward our 2
percent objective in the medium term. Additionally, our economists will be considering
how a stronger dollar and more subdued rates of growth outside the U.S. might adversely
affect GDP, unemployment and inflation in this country. We’ll also be working to better
understand the potential impact of some of the secular issues I have discussed tonight.
I believe that continuing along the path of monetary policy normalization is important.
There are various costs to maintaining excessive accommodation for too long—
particularly in terms of potential distortions in investment, inventory and hiring decisions,
which may need to be (painfully) unwound when policy normalizes. My experience is
that these imbalances are sometimes easier to recognize in hindsight.
In thinking about these questions, we’re sensitive to the fact that monetary policy affects
the economy with a lag. As consequence, if we delay further normalization until we
actually see evidence of excessive accommodation, there is a risk that we will have
waited too long.
In addition, as we go through this period, I would not be surprised to see more bouts of
volatility in the financial markets. The challenge for policymakers is to appropriately
consider these movements, without over-reading or misinterpreting them, in assessing
underlying economic conditions.
11. 10
Thank you for the opportunity to speak today. I look forward to getting to know you
better in the months and years ahead. Now, I would be very happy to take your questions.
Notes
1
See “Short-Term Energy Outlook,” Energy Information Administration, December 2015; additional
calculations made by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
2
See note 1.
3
See note 1.
4
See note 1.
5
Sources are as follows: 2015 employment annualized year to date through November—Bureau of Labor
Statistics and Texas Workforce Commission, with seasonal and other adjustments by the Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas.
6
Sources are as follows: 2014 employment—Bureau of Labor Statistics and Texas Workforce
Commission, with seasonal and other adjustments by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
7
Census Bureau.
8
Unemployment drop measured from December 2014 to December 2015.
9
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
10
See “Personal Income and Outlays,” Bureau of Economic Analysis, Dec. 23, 2015.
11
Real global GDP (excluding the U.S.) grew 2.5 percent in 2015, according to estimates by the Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas economists using a weighted average aggregate with weights equal to U.S. trade
weights.
12
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2015.
13
See note 12.
14
See “Labor Force Projections to 2024: The Labor Force Is Growing, but Slowly,” by Mitra Toossi,
Monthly Labor Review, Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2015,
www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/labor-force-projections-to-2024-1.htm.
15
See Census Bureau 2014 National Population Projections: Summary Tables, Table 9,
www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2014/summarytables.html.
16
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
17
See note 14.
18
U.S. Department of the Treasury. Year 2000 number is an annual average. Current number is as of the
third quarter 2015.
19
2015 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal
Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds.
20
“The 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlook,” Congressional Budget Office, June 2015,
www.cbo.gov/publication/50250.