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Dcr Trendline June 2015
- 1. Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication | Page 28
- 2. It’s hard to believe that 2015 is already halfway over. The staff at DCR TrendLine has been hard at work to provide you with key insights into the non-employee workforce market. With thorough research and in-depth analysis of data, we aim to give you a pulse of the staffing market. As usual, our articles this month uncover trends in the industry and provide you with hard, actionable information on non-employee workforce suplly and demand. The DCR National Temp Wage Index focuses on wage trends over the year, analyzing the use of non-employee workers and tracking related developments in the market. This month, we look at job growth by industry, examine statistics about the staffing industry, and highlight hourly wage trends for freelancers. June is considered the month for graduations. As the class of 2015 enters the workforce, we take a look at employment prospects for the new grads. We’re continuing our global series that focuses on the ASEAN region.This month we examine Indonesia and its slowing economy, and discuss the workforce challenges that arise due to this. This month we also present our quarterly topic –“What’s Trending in the Temp Market”– that consolidates our research into a short list of critical trends in key talent sectors of the industry. Recently the media and labor experts have been talking about the growing number of freelancers in the workforce. We identify the American cities that possess the most factors that would appeal to freelancers. Our industry highlight for June focuses on the oil and gas sector. The DCR TrendLine Oil and Gas Employment Index provides an overview of employment trends in the industry over the past six years. We also discuss the impact of oil prices on GDP and on employment. Over the course of the past year, the talent management space has been transforming. We examine four major trends we expect to see become critical to talent management in the near future. Our feature article this month hones in on a topic that is becoming very relevant to executives and business leaders – simplicity. We discuss the need to simplify the workplace and provide some tips on ways to get started. This edition’s final article focuses on the long-term impact of the devastating earthquakes recently experienced by Nepal. We examine Nepal’s economy before the disaster, and discuss the effect the damage could have on tourism and the country’s GDP. Ammu Warrier Ammu Warrier, President “ note from the editor inside this issue “Fallout from the collapse of oil prices and the surging value of the dollar are weighing on job creation. Employment in the energy sector and manufacturing is declining. However, this should prove temporary and job growth will reaccelerate this summer.” ~Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics 1 Note from the Editor..............................................................................................................................................page 1 DCR National Temp Wage Index........................................................................................................................page 2 Employment Prospects for 2015 Grads..........................................................................................................page 8 Indonesia’s Slowing Economy and Workforce Challenges.......................................................................page 14 What’s Trending in the Temp Market – Q2 of 2015....................................................................................page 19 Industry Highlight: Oil and Gas Index.............................................................................................................page 21 4 Talent Management Trends.............................................................................................................................page 26 Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.......................................................................................................page 28 Nepal Earthquake: The Long-Term Economic Impact.................................................................................page 30 Methodology........................................................................................................................................................... page 34 References................................................................................................................................................................page 35 About DCR.................................................................................................................................................................page 36
- 3. DCR National Temp Wage Index 2 The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in April 2015, bringing the unemployment rate down to 5.4 percent from 5.5 percent in the prior month, its lowest mark since May 2008. Year-over-year, the unemployment rate is down by 0.8 percentage points.
- 4. DCR National Temp Wage Index 3 Major gains came from professional and business services with 62,000 jobs added, and healthcare and construction with 45,000 jobs added each. Employment in mining fell by 15,000 jobs, mostly in support and oil and gas extraction. Monthly Job Gains Over Past Year Source: BLS
- 5. DCR National Temp Wage Index 4 Job Gains by Industry in 2015 Source: BLS Average hourly earnings increased by 3 cents to $24.87. The Payscale Index forecasts a year-over-year growth of 0.7 percent for the second quarter of 2015. In the first quarter of 2015, median weekly earnings of U.S. full-time wage and salary workers rose 1.5 percent year-over-year to $808. For workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher, the median was $1,227, while for workers with a high school diploma only the median was $669. Data released by the American Staffing Association (ASA) reveals that U.S. staffing companies employed an average of 3.2 million temporary and contract workers per week in 2014, up 5.4 percent from 2013. Staffing Stats “ “Staffing and recruiting firms are playing an extremely important role in helping millions of Americans in flexible work situations achieve their goal of bridging to permanent employment. The staffing industry hired 14.6 million people during all of 2014. Most transitioned quickly to permanent jobs as businesses increased the size of their talent pools. The average length of employment with a staffing firm was 11.3 weeks in 2014, down from 14.3 weeks in 2013.”~Richard Wahlquist, President and CEO of ASA.
- 6. 5 DCR National Temp Wage Index In the fourth quarter of 2014, average weekly staffing industry employment grew by 137,100 workers. Temporary and contract staffing sales were also higher in that period, up 7.9 percent compared to the prior year, totalling $30.54 billion. For the full year of 2014, sales were up 5.7 percent compared to the year before. ASA says that while permanent employment is a top priority for many staffing employees, about one in five workers cite scheduling flexibility as a key reason for choosing temporary work. Over 90 percent of temporary workers believe that staffing work makes them more employable. Top Occupation Areas for Staffing Workers Source: ASA Staffing Stats 5
- 7. DCR National Temp Wage Index Middle market companies (MMC) are those businesses with annual revenues that range from $10 million up to $1 billion. In the United States, there are nearly 200,000 MMCs. Economists consider the activity of this segment to be a good predictor of economic growth, which is not surprising since MMCs account for one-third of the employment in the country. A recent survey of America’s MMCs by the National Center for the Middle Market found that revenue growth in the segment has been strong at 7.4 percent over the last 12 months, but future growth is expected to slow, with a forecast of 5.3 percent in the next year. Over the past years, MMCs have reported employment growth at a rate of 4.3 percent, while the expectation is that this growth will fall to 3.2 percent over the next year. The survey asked respondents to list their greatest internal and external challenges for the near-term (3 months) and long-term (12 months). Internal challenges centered on staffing and the growth of business, while top external challenges were government regulations and competition. 6 Looking at Middle Market Companies To Forecast U.S. Economic Growth Source: National Center for the Middle Market
- 8. 7 DCR National Temp Wage Index A recent survey of 23,000 freelance workers around the world by Payoneer revealed that the average global hourly rate charged by freelancers is $21. Almost half of freelancers charge under $10 per hour, while 40 percent charge between $11 and $30, and 18% charge more than $30 per hour. The survey found that, as expected, certain skill types demand significantly higher rates than others. Freelancers providing legal services charge an average of $31 per hour, while those working in sales and marketing charge $21 per hour, and those providing writing and translation services charge $17 per hour. The average worldwide income satisfaction rate was low at 46 percent, which indicates that many freelancers would like to work more hours or charge higher rates. The highest level of income satisifaction was found in professionals in IT and programming, followed by those in the legal field. The lowest levels were found among those working in writing and translation, as well as those working the fewest hours per week. Other key findings from the survey are that freelance professionals work an average of 36 hours per week, and more than 80 percent of those surveyed work one to three jobs at a time. Almost half of the freelancers find projects via online marketplaces, and the preferred social media channel to promote freelancing skills is Facebook. Average Hourly Rates for Freelancers Source: Payoneer Average Hourly Freelance Worker Wages
- 9. Employment Prospects for 2015 Grads 8 June is traditionally the month of graduations. Over the past few years, new college grads have been worried about finding employment of any kind, let alone in their chosen fields of study. But recently, unemployment has been falling for graduates. According to a survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE), employers are planning to hire 9.6 percent more graduates in the United States than they did in 2014. Job Outlook Hiring Projections for Recent Grads, 2011-2015 Source: NACE What Employers are Looking For “ “During the recession, many companies may not have focused recruiting efforts on college graduates because of a lack of job openings and limited turnover. But now we are beginning to see entry-level hiring pick up. Compared to recent years, 2015 graduates can be optimistic in their job search.”~Evren Esen, Director of Survey Programs at the Society of Human Resource Management
- 10. Employment Prospects for 2015 Grads 9 Additionally, employers are looking to hire students with degrees in engineering more than any other major. Of the employers surveyed, 72 percent said they wanted to hire students enrolled in engineering programs. Academic Discipline Engineering Business Computer Sciences Accounting Misc. Majors Economics Physical Sciences Communications Humanities Social Sciences Agriculture Education Health Sciences Percent of of Total Respondants Hiring 72.1% 68.2% 57.8% 50.6% 31.2% 29.2% 23.4% 17.5% 11.0% 10.4% 8.4% 5.2% 3.2% Employers’Hiring Expectations, by Major Source: NACE
- 11. 10 Employment Prospects for 2015 Grads The survey also asked employers to rank the skills they value most in new hires. Top competencies included critical thinking, problem solving, team work, professionalism, oral and written communications, information technology application, and leadership. Approximately 55 percent of employers said they are planning to increase the number of college graduates they hire. According to a separate report by CareerBuilder, business students are also high in demand. In the report, 38 percent of hiring managers and human resource personnel surveyed said that business-related majors were the most sought-after academic backgrounds that they were looking to recruit. Employers viewed education and liberal arts, general studies, and humanities majors as the least attractive academic majors for recruitment this year. “Where are the jobs? When you look at it, from a demand standpoint –what types of positions are companies hiring and then get into the geography of where they need these people – a lot of it is in STEM jobs. If you look at technical jobs, engineering positions, analyst roles, health care…we’re starting to see movement in those particular jobs.” ~Joanie Courtney, Senior Vice President at Monster Wage Growth Across States “
- 12. 11 Employment Prospects for 2015 Grads Recent analysis by the Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce (Georgetown CEW) looks at recent salaries for both undergraduate degrees and graduate degrees. The degrees earning the highest salaries at the undergraduate level are in engineering. Salaries For Graduates Professional and Business Services Employment and Hourly Wages Source: Georgetown CEW
- 13. 12 Employment Prospects for 2015 Grads Graduate school provides an extra salary boost to engineers, but the largest gains are found in fields that did not offer high wages at the undegraduate degree level, such as history and political science. Having a higher graduate degree also makes a difference in employment rates, especially for those in the hard sciences and social sciences. A study by Michigan State University found that opportunities for graduates with bachelor’s degrees grew 16 percent from 2013 to 2015, while opportunities for MBA candidates were up 38 percent. Salaries For Graduates Biggest Salary Increases by Graduate School Fields Source: Georgetown CEW
- 14. 1713 Employment Prospects for 2015 Grads Difference in Unemployment Rate by Level of Degree Source: Georgetown CES Salaries For Graduates
- 15. 14 Indonesia’s Slowing Economy and Workforce Challenges Indonesia is the largest economy in South East Asia. Combined, the ten economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) more than tripled in size between 2003 and 2013. However, in the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s economy grew just 4.71 percent, the slowest pace since 2009. Many economists blame the decline on the new administration of President Joko Widodo. The government blames the weakening global economy for the sluggish growth. Indonesian producers rely on foreign markets, and similarly the domestic market relies on imported goods. The Indonesian rupiah dropped 0.5 percent against the dollar to 13,044 in May 2015. It was the biggest decliner this year among the 11 Asian currencies that are tracked by Bloomberg. “Indonesia is looking more ‘fragile’ with each passing day. It’s not just that the economy is slowing sharply, but also that President Widodo is struggling to assert his authority on Indonesian politics.” ~Nicholas Spiro, Managing Director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy. “
- 16. 1715 Indonesia’s Slowing Economy and Workforce Challenges Indonesia’s Workforce Snapshot Source: BPS
- 17. 16 Indonesia’s Slowing Economy and Workforce Challenges Indonesia has a young workforce, with over 50 percent of its population, currently the world’s fourth largest, under the age of 30. A study by Indonesia’s Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) projects that over the next 50 years the country’s population will experience a ‘demographic bonus” in which 60 to 70 percent of the population will be within the working age of 15 to 64. However, as per the World Bank, 40 percent of Indonesians are living on less than $1.80 per day, and a large number of youth entering the workforce will exacerbate this problem. According to PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC), to achieve even a modest target of 6 percent annual GDP growth, Indonesia will require about 50 million skilled workers. Building a highly skilled and productive workforce will also improve Indonesia’s competitive advantage in ASEAN by attracting new investments and generating opportunities for growth. “On the one hand, a war for talent in recruitment will continue to be present in the business; but on the other hand, companies can also address skills shortages by taking a fresh look at the talent within.” ~Marina Tusin, Partner for People and Change at PwC Indonesia “
- 18. 17 Indonesia’s Slowing Economy and Workforce Challenges According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), Indonesia finds it difficult to respond to the skills needs of their employers. It is projected that by 2020, Indonesia will only have 56 percent of the middle managers that companies need to run their businesses. The country has a severe shortage of skilled labor due to migration of skilled workers to other countries and the lack of capacity to provide training. Training programs that are available are often out of date, and do not meet the needs of the market. Also training is not accessible by all levels of the community. The ILO believes that among the largest skills and employability challenges that Indonesia faces, the need for a national skills development system, linkages between employers and training organizations, and access to skills development rank among the highest. Today, 97 percent of Indonesia’s citizens receive a primary education, but only 23 percent of students make it to the tertiary level. This is partly due to the fact that many Indonesians cannot afford tuition or must drop out of school to support their family. Skills Gap in Indonesia Educational Attainment Source: BPS
- 19. 18 Indonesia’s Slowing Economy and Workforce Challenges Every year, about 700,000 documented Indonesian workers leave the country to find employment abroad. The primary destinations are the Middle East and Asia, with the two most common destinations being Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. Data from the National Agency for the Protection and Placement of Indonesian Migrant Workers (BNP2TKI) found that in 2009 , there were approximately 4.3 million Indonesians working overseas, contributing around $8.2 billion in remittances to the country’s national economy in 2008. The number of undocumented migrant workers is estimates to be 2 to 4 times higher. Approximately 75 percent of all documented Indonesian migrant workers are women, with the vast majority employed as domestic workers. Just recently, Indonesia’s Minister of Manpower, Muhammad Hanif Dhakiri, implemented a new policy where Indonesia will stop sending domestic workers to 21 countries. This occurred after the execution of two Indonesian women in April 2015 in Saudi Arabia. These blacklisted countries include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Egypt, Algeria, Iraq, Iran, Kuwaid, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Mauritiania, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, South Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen, and Jordon. The country is also planning to tighten placements of domestic workers in parts of East and Southeast Asia – including Singapore, Hong Kong, and Malaysia – through measures such as auditing domestic help training centers. Meanwhile, South Korea has recently invited Indonesian workers to work or train in their country. There are currently about 60,000 Indonesians working in companies in South Korea, especially in the technology industry. According to Indonesian Vice President Jusuf Kalla, South Korea is one of the biggest investors in Indonesia and is looking to enhance ties between the two countries through cooperation. Indonesia’s Migrant Workers
- 20. 171719 It may seem that there is no connection between the Internet of Things (IOT) and HR, but it is a major trend that HR professionals need to stay alert to. Technology analyst firm Garner predicts that soon there will be nearly 30 billion connected devices within the IoT.Wearable technology, such as smart glasses, badges, jewelry, watches, and pens, tie workers to their organizations. While this innovation is not ever-present yet, HR will have to contend with issues around monitoring workers, such as worker privacy and security. Gamification is a hot topic right now in various areas within the talent management space. In candidate selection, simple games can be used to test cognitive capabilities. And in recruitment, candidates are able to experience what working for an organization is like by participating in simulations. Gamification in performance management introduces leader boards, points, and badges that are related to specific desired behavior. In training, numerous studies have found that games and simulations are more effective than traditional classroom learning. Recently McKinsey & Company released a study that showed that gender diverse companies had financial performance that was 15 percent higher than the national industry mean. According to McKinsey, more diverse companies are better able to win top talent, and improve employee satisfaction and decision making. Women, who account for an average of 16 percent of the members of executive teams in the Untied States, remain underrepresented at the top of corporations globally. Organizations are beginning to understand the benefits of gender diversity, and are making it a strategic priority. Many companies are restructuring policies and programs to increase gender neutrality, and implementing measures to create hiring strategies and talent pipelines that boost gender diversity. At DCR TrendLine, we’re always focused on what’s trending in anything to do with non-employee worker supply and demand. This month, we’re presenting our quarterly view of pivotal trends in key talent sectors of the staffing industry and human capital management. #IoT #Gamification #GenderDiversity What’s Trending in the Temp Market – Q2 of 2015
- 21. 20 The Best Cities For Freelancing Freelancing has become a major trend in the business world over the last couple of years. More businesses are starting to realize the value of employing freelance workers, and more individuals are finding contract work to either supplement or replace their traditional jobs. Recently Zen99, a company that provides insurance and tax tools to freelancers, analyzed data to discover which cities possessed factors that would appeal to freelancers. These factors included personal preferences such as climate and proximity to family and friends. They also included economic realities such as self-employment income, affordability of insurance, cost of living, housing costs, and tax rates. Also taken into account was the economic robustness of an area, based on employment figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both analyses found Los Angeles, California to be the top city for freelance workers. In Zen99’s calculations, the city’s health insurance is not the most affordable and median housing costs are among the highest. But Los Angeles is home to the most freelancers in the country. According to NerdWallet, 17.9 percent of L.A. households reported self-employment income in 2012. Because so many people do freelance work, there are many facilities and outlets for freelancers to connect and collaborate with others, including coworking spaces and meet-up groups. Gabe Rosenberg, writer on the blog The Freelancer, attributes much of this freelance work to the movie industry. Indie filmmakers, screenwriters, actors, and production assistants make up a bulk of the freelance labor in Hollywood. Interestingly, the only Eastern city found on both lists was Miami, while most cities tended to be on the Western coast of the United States. In Miami, freelancers make up 14.6 percent of all workers, working in areas such as as fashion, writing, web design, and lifestyle businesses. Miami is also home to the largest number of foreign-born self-employed workers in the country. Additionally, a new push to bolster the arts and technology startup scene in the city has lead to the growth of co-working spaces, communities, and events dedicated to a freelance lifestyle. “It’s already hard enough being an independent contractor. So anything you can do to maximize where you’re living in terms of cost of living or existing support network is really important for contractors to do.”~Tristan Zier, CEO of Zen99 “ According to Zen99, the 10 best cities for freelancers are: 1. Los Angeles 2. Miami 3. Houston 4. Oklahoma City 5. Dallas 6. Nashville 7. Portland 8. Austin 9. Oakland 10. Tucson A similar analysis by NerdWallet also looked at similar factors to discover the best cities for freelancers. Additionally, NerdWallet looked to see if there were other successful freelancers in the area, as these cities provide more resources for freelancers and a sustainable freelance lifestyle. According to NerdWallet, the top 10 best cities for freelancers are: 1. Los Angeles 2. Portland 3. Miami 4. Austin 5. Nashville 6. Minneapolis 7. Lexington 8. Oklahoma City 9. Seattle 10. Lincoln
- 22. 21 Industry Highlight: Oil and Gas Index In 2014, the price of oil crashed and economists expected this would give the economy a boost. However, the oil price drop was followed not by a boom but rather a slowdown – recent figures revealed that growth in the first quarter of 2015 was only 0.2 percent. Currently, the price of oil is down more than 40 percent since June of 2014. Employment at U.S. energy companies has dropped by 6,800 jobs so far this year, according to recently released federal data. And jobs at energy services companies have fallen by about 30,000. Graves & Co., a consulting company in Houston, says that energy employers have announced 120,000 layoffs around the world. The oil-rig count has been falling consistently, with over 23 straight weeks of decline. The number of U.S. oil drilling rigs is considered a proxy for activity in the oil industry. There are now 59 percent fewer rigs working since a peak of 1,609 in October 2014. Source: BLS DCR TrendLine Oil and Gas Employment Index
- 23. 22 Industry Highlight: Oil and Gas Index The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the total annual output of an economy, is made up of four factors – 1) government spending, 2) net exports, 3) consumer spending, and 4) investment. While oil prices do not affect government spending, they do have a large impact on the other factors. Source: EIA U.S. Petroleum Transactions The Impact of Oil Prices on GDP Source: EIA
- 24. 23 Industry Highlight: Oil and Gas Index The Impact of Oil Prices on GDP Net exports have seen an increase due to lower oil prices. While the United States exports little oil, it imports a lot at approximately 9 million barrels per day. With oil price at about $60 below its peak, Americans are spending $500 million less abroad every day. Combined with the lower price of domestically produced oil, economists expected that consumer spending would increase. But due to slow wage growth, it appears that consumers are reluctant to spend or invest; the monthly growth rate of retail sales has declined in the past few months. The fourth component of GDP is also slow. From 2010 to 2014, investments in mining exploration, shafts and wells increased by 80 percent. But now firms are cutting back, with investment in mining structures shrinking to 60 percent in the first quarter of 2015. According to Capital Economics, this lower investment is enough to subtract 0.8 percent from total GDP growth. Lower investment also means job costs. In March 2015 one of the largest oil states, Texas, saw its largest month-on-month job creation drop since 2009. “I don’t think we’ve seen the full economic benefits of the fall in the price of oil yet because they’re still working their way through the system, and it’s a process that could take up to a year from when prices started falling.” ~Jason Furham, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors “
- 25. 24 Industry Highlight: Oil and Gas Index The Impact of Oil Prices on Employment While the economy has continued to add jobs, states that rely heavily on the oil industry have experienced significant cuts. Texas was down 25,400 jobs in April 2015, while Oklahoma was down 12,900 jobs. According to Michael Feroli, the Chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan Chase, the scale of job losses in Texas is so large that the state may be in a recession. Over the past four months, cheap oil prices have led to nearly 100,000 losses in industry jobs. Just recently Schlumberger Limited, the world’s largest oil field services company, announced it would slash 20,000 jobs, citing a 29 percent decline in Q1-2015 profit. For the 1,800 students in the United States who are expected to graduate this year with a bachelor’s degree in petroleum engineering, prospects are unfavorable. Enrollment in undergraduate U.S. petroleum-engineering programs has been increasing from 3,710 students in 2008 to 11,400 students this year. According to Nathan Kelley of Moody’s Analytics, oil job cuts will continue into 2016. He expects net oil industry job losses to total 37,000 for the remainder of 2015. “There are too many students coming out looking for jobs. More than three times as many students are graduating with undergraduate petroleum-engineering degrees than in 2008.” ~Lloyd Heinze, Professor at Texas Tech University “
- 26. 25 Industry Highlight: Oil and Gas Index Women in the Oil Industry An American Petroleum Institute (API) study conducted in 2014 showed that women make up only 19 percent of the oil industry’s workforce. This is compared to 47 percent of the overall American workforce. Some oil companies are taking strides to increase the gender diversity in their workforces. ExxonMobil, for example, holds an annual “Introduce a Girl to Engineering Day”, where the company sends its female engineers and scientists to middle schools as mentors and instructors, with the aim of getting female students interested in the subject and preparing them to take courses in high school that will help them study engineering in college. The API report predicts that the share of woman in white-collar oil industry jobs will increase, but will decline even further on the blue-collar side. The sector’s aging workforce increases the importance of overturning the lack of appeal the industry has to women. Thousands of older employees are beginning to retire from the oil industry. One survey predicts that 22,000 geoscientists and engineers will leave the oil business over the next three years, mostly due to retirement. While salaries are well above national average, oil companies are still struggling to attract workers. Many students stay away from the industry citing environmental concerns and the bad reputation of the industry due to high gas prices. Projected Female Job Opportunities in the Oil Industry , 2010-2030 Source: API
- 27. 26 4 Talent Management Trends Over the last year, the talent management space has undergone a lot of change. From deeper integration of talent management and training software to a huge dependence on social recruiting, trends are starting to emerge. Identifying top talent now means looking at new solutions and offerings, redefining competitive advantage, and restructuring talent strategy. Trend #1: Managing Confidential Data The well-publicized recent breaches of employee data in major companies has highlighted the vulnerability of private HR information. Talent management professionals and IT departments are looking for software that will offer levels of data access for different categories of users. Trend #2: Mobile Talent Management Driven by a competitive labor market and the demand for tech-savvy workers, mobile recruiting applications are becoming a must have for talent management organizations. Also increasing in popularity are mobile learning applications, which offer access to training and development from anywhere at anytime.
- 28. 27 4 Talent Management Trends Trend #3: Engagement and Retention In December 2014, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) there were 4.7 million job openings, but more than half of employers said they could not find qualified candidates. Failure to engage and retain top talent threatens the future growth and competitiveness of both large and small companies. Multiple surveys indicate that HR leaders feel responsible for building a culture of engagement that will attract and retain workers. Trend #4: Talent Strategy A recent study by the Cranfield School of Management found that many organizations lack a cohesive talent management strategy. While the topic is discussed about regularly by HR consultants and executives, only 46 percent of the 546 HR and talent management professionals surveyed said they had a talent management strategy. Of this, only 29 percent felt that their talent management strategy was working well. According to the study, organizations are increasing their spending on training and development, performance management, and succession planning. However, they are reducing the amount spent on recruitment, which suggests that companies are focusing on developing internal talent as their primary tactic for filling key positions. Current Priorities for Talent Management (percentage of organizations) Source: Cranfield School of Management
- 29. 28 Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication A recent report by Deloitte studying people-related issues in 3,300 global corporations found that 74 percent of HR and business leaders characterized their work environment as either “complex” or “highly complex.” Research finds that in one day more than 100 billion emails are exchanged, yet only one in seven is critically important. People check their mobile phones more than 150 times per day. And a study by the National Journal found that 40 percent of workers believe that it is not possible to succeed at work, earn good wages, and have enough time to contribute to family and the community. There are many reasons for this work overload, including always-on technology, 24/7 demands, and the abundance of messaging and social tools available. But another important factor is complexity in work practices, business processes, and job tasks. Driving this complexity in the work environment are four major factors. First, the technology used to conduct work has become increasingly complex. Second, most companies are becoming increasingly global with clients, partners, suppliers, and workers all around the world, which calls for conference calls, meetings, and emails at all hours of the day and night. Third, increased administrative and compliance demands require more time and engagement from workers. And fourth, businesses processes have become complex, with some large companies reporting more than 4,000 different tasks, rules, processes, and procedures required to build one major product. As labor market conditions continue to improve, employers are starting to focus on simplifying the workplace. This requires a sophisticated evaluation of the details within a program or process, and then eliminating what is not urgently needed. Knowledge@Wharton, the online business analysis journal of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, found that 67 percent of senior leaders believe that business simplicity will be very important in the next three years.
- 30. 29 “The first way to reduce complexity is to devote serious time and resources to solving the problem. These results show the lack of attention that complexity has received. This lack of attention cannot continue any longer.” ~Morris Cohen, Professor of Operations and Information Management at the Wharton School During the recession, workers were overwhelmed because of the demand to do more with less. For organizations that are looking to create more productive and engaging workforce environments today, its important to shift gears and concentrate on empowering and equipping workers to do fewer things better. Executives are starting to realize that simplicity may be one of the most important and underutilized tools in a company. There is opportunity in both simplifying the work environment and in simplifying the work itself. Experts believe that over the remainder of 2015 and through 2016, companies will take steps to streamline work, reduce administrative burdens, and simplify complex processes. Make Simplification a Priority: In many companies it works well to have the HR department act as the catalyst for the entire organization to declutter by advising businesses on strategies to save time and reduce the number of emails and meetings. A good way to start is by asking workers about the processes that they think wastes their time and complicates their tasks. Reduce Unproductive Meetings and Email Overflow: Currently the average worker spends over one-quarter of their workday reading and responding to emails. Leading companies are starting to change business practices by stopping emails on weekends and implementing simpler tools. Some companies are event starting to treat“time capital”with the same seriousness as financial capital, and are working to cut back on unnecessary meetings and conference calls. Maximizing workers’time by reducing the numbers of emails, meetings, and conferences calls is becoming a critical priority for organizations. The less time people spend on these items, the more productive and focused they are throughout the day. Remove Low-Value Activities: An easy starting point for simplification is to remove low-value activities that almost always exist in most organizations. For example, consider how many people are needed to review and sign off on expense reports, or how many times slide decks need to be recviewed before they are presented. If a few simple tasks can be removed, it creates bandwidth to focus on more substantial work. Implement Design Thinking: Design thinking is a process that brings user interface designers, process experts, and graphics specialists together to make work systems more functional and easier to use. Whole industries are being transformed by technological and design innovations that are aimed at simplifying the way we live and work. For businesses, design thinking is geared towards rethinking how work gets done. Using a single functional area as an organizational role model, design thinking teams should strive to remove steps and implement only as much processes and technology as is needed to get the job done. Invest in More Integrated, Simpler Technology: Most new technology is packed full of features that most users don’t use or even know exists. And these features are released faster than most people can learn to use them. Ultimately though, it’s the simplest products that are the most widely used. While new features are exciting and trendy, companies are realizing the need to evaluate software based on its ease of use. Major technology vendors are actively looking to simplify their applications and tools. Deloitte finds that HR software buyers today are looking for systems with fewer features and less complexity. Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication Some Ways to Get Started on Simplifying the Workplace
- 31. 30 Nepal Earthquake: The Long-Term Economic Impact The 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Nepal in late April 2015 has killed more than 5,500 people, and destroyed or damaged many historic sights. Nepal is home to seven official U.N. World Heritage sites, four of them in the Kathmandu Valley around the capital. These temples and squares draw hundreds of thousands of tourists, who fuel a large part of Nepal’s economy. According to the U.S. Geological Survey’s best estimate, the total economic losses from the damage could be between $1 billion and $10 billion. According to Rajiv Biswas, chief Asia economist at HIS, rebuilding costs could exceed $5 billion, which is about 20 percent of Nepal’s gross domestic product (GDP). The most recent numbers by the Nepal government estimate the damage at about $10 billion, nearly half the country’s GDP of $19.2 billion. HIS Global Insights, a research firm, says that the estimated cost for rebuilding homes, roads, and bridges could run up to $5 billion. “Almost 100 quakes in the last 24 hours have pushed us 50 years back to the past, in terms of infrastructural damage alone.” ~Mukesh Khanal, Economist in Nepal’s international development sector “
- 32. 31 Nepal Earthquake: The Long-Term Economic Impact Nepal is already one of the world’s poorest countries. The Himalayan nation was making an effort to move from a “Least Developed Country” to a “Developing Country” by 2022. Compared to neighboring countries, Nepal’s GDP was expected to grow at a lower pace, due to long-term political turmoil that made investment difficult and an unemployment rate of over 40 percent. Currently, Nepal’s GDP is less than the GDPs of any of the 50 U.S. states. Until the 1990s, Nepal’s economy was primarily driven by agriculture, and this sector is still important to the country. However, in recent years, manufacturing and services sectors have also seen growth. Agriculture now contributes about 33.7 percent to Nepal’s $19 billion economy, while the services sector brings in about 52.2 percent of the GDP. The services sector encompasses industries such as tourism, hotels and restaurants, construction, real estate, and trade. Industries such as manufacturing and power contribute about 14 percent to the GDP. However, approximately 75 percent of Nepal’s population of 27 million is still employed in the agriculture sector, according to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Source: The World Bank Nepal’s Economy Pre-Earthquake
- 33. Nepal Earthquake: The Long-Term Economic Impact The country’s economy is highly dependent on tourism and remittances. In 2013, remittances accounted for 29 percent of the GDP, due to a huge migration of workers to foreign countries because of a lack of employment opportunities in Nepal. According to the World Bank, over 25 percent of those living in Nepal are considered impoverished. Additionally, Nepal’s currency is pegged to the Indian rupee, which was weakened in 2015. Nepal’s imports have also been growing, increasing an average of 25.9 percent annually since 2010. This means that there is a large trade deficit, which indicates Nepal’s continued need for foreign exchange. On the UN’s Human Development Index, which measures life expectancy, education and per capital income indicators, Nepal ranks at 145, lower than Laos, Congo, and Bangladesh. According to the International Monetary Fund, Nepal has the lowest spending power of any Asian country except Afghanistan. 32 Real Value Added by Economic Sectors Source: Overseas Development Institute Nepal’s Economy Pre-Earthquake “This is a very catastrophic event in a very poor nation. The cost of reconstruction over the next few years will be massive.”~Rajiv Biswas, Chief Asia Economist at IHS “
- 34. 33 Nepal Earthquake: The Long-Term Economic Impact Three royal plazas – the Durbar Squares of Kathmandu, Patan, and Bhaktapur – are almost completely destroyed.These squares date back to the 5th century, and were home to Nepal’s royal families until the 1800s. UNESCO, the UN cultural agency, estimates that 80 percent of the temples are significantly damaged. Economist expect this damage to severely hit tourism, which makes up 8.2 percent of Nepal’s GDP, and 7 percent of total employment. By 2024, this contribution to GDP was expected to rise to almost 10 percent, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council. The 25 to 27 mountainous districts ht by the earthquake are popular for tourism-related activities. Nepal’s tourism ministry says that 797,616 tourists visited the country in 2013, with each spending an estimated US $42.80 per day. Analysts believe this estimate to be conservative because it only covers hotels and restaurants, and does not include a large number of other direct and indirect sectors. Estimates for the number of Nepalese employed in the tourism industry vary widely, even within the same report, ranging from 38,148 to 178,000. Governments of various countries are already issuing travel advisories, encouraging people to cancel all non-essential travel to Nepal for the foreseeable future. The United States, Britain, India, Australia, and New Zealand have all issued travel advisories. The Impact of the Damage on Tourism “Tourism provides more than half a million jobs for the Nepalese.” ~Alok K. Bohara, Economics Professor at the University of New Mexico and Founding Director at the Nepal Study Centre “As the country rebuilds, tourism can be expected to pick up once again. This rebuilding, however, will take several years, perhaps a decade.” ~Gyan Pradhan, Economics Professor at Eastern Kentucky University “
- 35. 34 methodology The DCR NationalTempWage Index is developed to assess the relative movements of temporary wage rates in the U.S. economy.The wage rates for temporary workers or contingent workforce are based on payments made by staffing firms to these workers based upon hours worked. Data collected from sources such as Bureau of Labor Standards (BLS) and other government sites as well as an internal pool of staffing companies and consultants, is aggregated and classified based on regions and skill categories, to arrive at an aggregate index. The baseline for the index is set at 100 for January 2007. Index value for a particular month indicates relative wages with the said baseline and is representative in terms of direction and scale of change. Five years of data has been included to observe seasonal patterns and distinguish seasonality from long-term wage movements. The data and the model has been further refined over last six months. DCR TrendLine combines the exhaustive data from BLS with practical and more recent developments and data from on-field consultants and clients, to provide timely near-term indications of trends and consistent long-term actionable and objective information. DCR TrendLine uses multiple economic variables to ensure the robustness of its forecasts and cross-validation of trends. Key data sources and parameters of interest included and influencing the index are: Unemployment data Gross Domestic Product Prime rate of interest New and seasonal Job openings Non Farm employment Job Openings All Export All Import Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees Total Private Aggregate consultant data on job market parameters source data
- 37. DCR Workforce is an award winning, best-in-class service provider for contingent workforce and services procurement management. Our proprietary SaaS platform (SMART TRACK) assists in providing customizable VMS and MSP Solutions to manage, procure and analyze your talent with complete transparency, real-time control, high performance and decision-enabling business intelligence. DCR Workforce serves global clientele including several Fortune 1000 companies. Customers realize greater efficiencies; spend control, improved workforce quality and 100% compliance with our services. For more information about DCR Workforce and its Forecasting Toolkit (Rate, Demand, Supply and Intelligence) including Best Practice Portal, visit dcrworkforce.com For more information call +1-888-DCR-4VMS or visit www.trendline.dcrworkforce.com 7795 NW Beacon Square Blvd. #201 Boca Raton, FL 33487 sales@dcrworkforce.com | trendline@dcrworkforce.com about dcr © 2015 DCR Workforce, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DCR Workforce and Smart Track are Registered Trademarks. CCO — 082912 36 facebook.com/DCRtrendline twitter.com/DCRtrendline linkedin.com/company/dcr-workforce plus.google.com/+DCRWorkforce www.trendline.dcrworkforce.com | www.dcrworkforce.com