This document provides a forecast by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida for the U.S. economy from 2014 to 2017. It finds that overreaching laws and regulations like the Affordable Care Act and Dodd-Frank Act are inhibiting economic growth by creating policy uncertainty and choking off business activity. Real GDP growth is expected to gradually increase from 1.6% in late 2014 to 2.7% in 2017 as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, while consumer spending and housing recover. However, payroll growth will remain sluggish due to the policy environment, holding unemployment rates steady near 6% through 2017.
Epic Research Singapore : - Daily IForex Report of 01 April 2016epicresearchsgmy
Epic Research offers perfect Forex Signals for their clients that gives accurate results. Our research team with its past experience prepares live charts and track-sheets of IForex Signals through which traders can earn maximum profit from the market place. This report helps you to achieve desired success in the SGX Stock Exchange.
The document discusses the following:
1) Indian markets performed well in May with the Nifty 50 index rising 3.4% and outperforming global markets. Mid and small cap indices fell but have outperformed so far in 2017.
2) Inflation continued to surprise on the downside, falling to 2.99% in April. Wholesale inflation also declined and core inflation is at a series low. Lower global commodity prices and a favorable base will likely keep inflation low.
3) The RBI's monetary policy was dovish in line with lower growth and inflation data. While rates were kept unchanged, the tone and forecasts signal potential future rate cuts to boost the economy.
ICICI Prudential AMC - Market Outlook - October 2017iciciprumf
- Indian equity markets declined in September due to geopolitical tensions, higher crude prices, and weaker than expected GDP growth.
- Inflation rose in August driven by increases in food and fuel prices. The rupee also fell against the US dollar.
- Foreign institutional investors continued selling Indian equities while domestic mutual funds purchased shares.
- The document recommends dynamic asset allocation funds to benefit from market cycles and mentions specific pure equity and thematic funds for long-term investment.
ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION
This Overview is based on ESADE’s Economic Report, January 2014, produced by the Department of Economics. This article was written by Prof. Josep M. Comajuncosa. The original document was produced with the support of Banc de
Sabadell.
Epic Research Singapore : - Daily IForex Report of 17 February 2016epicresearchsgmy
Epic Research offers perfect Forex Signals for their clients that gives accurate results. Our research team with its past experience prepares live charts and track-sheets of IForex Signals through which traders can earn maximum profit from the market place. This report helps you to achieve desired success in the SGX Stock Exchange.
The document provides a market insight report that includes:
1) International currency buzz on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, noting the pound slipped against the dollar while the euro extended downward.
2) An economic calendar for the upcoming week with forecasts and previous data for key economic indicators.
3) Hourly charts for EUR/USD and GBP/USD with buy and sell recommendations.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.25% despite market expectations of a rate cut. The RBI remains focused on controlling inflation over boosting growth in the short-term due to demonetization. Inflation is projected to decline slightly due to demonetization, but other factors pose upside risks to inflation. RBI trimmed its GDP growth forecast for FY17 to 7.1% from 7.6% due to the expected negative economic impact of demonetization in the near-term.
Sticking to forecasts: Fed summer hike, Dollar hat-trick still on the cards, ...Olivier Desbarres
The Federal Reserve’s minutes of its 27th April policy meeting released last week set the tone for a possible June or July rate hike. On balance, recent US and global data are unlikely to have fundamentally changed the Federal Reserve’s view that a summer hike may be appropriate.
This is line with my long-held forecast that the Federal Reserve would likely hike once or twice this year, with the first hike in June. I recently updated my forecast to a July hike as it gives the Fed more time to assess US and global data and the result of the UK referendum on 23rd June. The risk is that the very threat of a hike derails financial markets sufficiently for the Federal Reserve to postpone its second-hike-in-a-decade to later this year.
Surprisingly, this message was seemingly absent from the wafer-thin policy statement the Federal Reserve issued on 27th April.
I maintain my January forecast that the dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)[1] may well end the year slightly higher, propelled by the resilience of the US economy and the Federal Reserve going against the global trend of easier (or at least easy) monetary policy.
Conversely, the recent modest weakening in emerging market currencies is likely to extend, as per my prediction in early April. Macro data are too weak to reassure markets that any economy can single-handedly steady slowing global growth but strong enough for the Federal Reserve to force markets to reprice the risk of tighter US policy.
My core scenario has been that the UK would vote to remain in the EU and, if anything, that conviction has strengthened following recent surveys. The lifting of this uncertainty would see a reasonably competitive sterling appreciate, albeit modestly given the UK’s underlying structural deficiencies.
Epic Research Singapore : - Daily IForex Report of 01 April 2016epicresearchsgmy
Epic Research offers perfect Forex Signals for their clients that gives accurate results. Our research team with its past experience prepares live charts and track-sheets of IForex Signals through which traders can earn maximum profit from the market place. This report helps you to achieve desired success in the SGX Stock Exchange.
The document discusses the following:
1) Indian markets performed well in May with the Nifty 50 index rising 3.4% and outperforming global markets. Mid and small cap indices fell but have outperformed so far in 2017.
2) Inflation continued to surprise on the downside, falling to 2.99% in April. Wholesale inflation also declined and core inflation is at a series low. Lower global commodity prices and a favorable base will likely keep inflation low.
3) The RBI's monetary policy was dovish in line with lower growth and inflation data. While rates were kept unchanged, the tone and forecasts signal potential future rate cuts to boost the economy.
ICICI Prudential AMC - Market Outlook - October 2017iciciprumf
- Indian equity markets declined in September due to geopolitical tensions, higher crude prices, and weaker than expected GDP growth.
- Inflation rose in August driven by increases in food and fuel prices. The rupee also fell against the US dollar.
- Foreign institutional investors continued selling Indian equities while domestic mutual funds purchased shares.
- The document recommends dynamic asset allocation funds to benefit from market cycles and mentions specific pure equity and thematic funds for long-term investment.
ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION
This Overview is based on ESADE’s Economic Report, January 2014, produced by the Department of Economics. This article was written by Prof. Josep M. Comajuncosa. The original document was produced with the support of Banc de
Sabadell.
Epic Research Singapore : - Daily IForex Report of 17 February 2016epicresearchsgmy
Epic Research offers perfect Forex Signals for their clients that gives accurate results. Our research team with its past experience prepares live charts and track-sheets of IForex Signals through which traders can earn maximum profit from the market place. This report helps you to achieve desired success in the SGX Stock Exchange.
The document provides a market insight report that includes:
1) International currency buzz on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, noting the pound slipped against the dollar while the euro extended downward.
2) An economic calendar for the upcoming week with forecasts and previous data for key economic indicators.
3) Hourly charts for EUR/USD and GBP/USD with buy and sell recommendations.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.25% despite market expectations of a rate cut. The RBI remains focused on controlling inflation over boosting growth in the short-term due to demonetization. Inflation is projected to decline slightly due to demonetization, but other factors pose upside risks to inflation. RBI trimmed its GDP growth forecast for FY17 to 7.1% from 7.6% due to the expected negative economic impact of demonetization in the near-term.
Sticking to forecasts: Fed summer hike, Dollar hat-trick still on the cards, ...Olivier Desbarres
The Federal Reserve’s minutes of its 27th April policy meeting released last week set the tone for a possible June or July rate hike. On balance, recent US and global data are unlikely to have fundamentally changed the Federal Reserve’s view that a summer hike may be appropriate.
This is line with my long-held forecast that the Federal Reserve would likely hike once or twice this year, with the first hike in June. I recently updated my forecast to a July hike as it gives the Fed more time to assess US and global data and the result of the UK referendum on 23rd June. The risk is that the very threat of a hike derails financial markets sufficiently for the Federal Reserve to postpone its second-hike-in-a-decade to later this year.
Surprisingly, this message was seemingly absent from the wafer-thin policy statement the Federal Reserve issued on 27th April.
I maintain my January forecast that the dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)[1] may well end the year slightly higher, propelled by the resilience of the US economy and the Federal Reserve going against the global trend of easier (or at least easy) monetary policy.
Conversely, the recent modest weakening in emerging market currencies is likely to extend, as per my prediction in early April. Macro data are too weak to reassure markets that any economy can single-handedly steady slowing global growth but strong enough for the Federal Reserve to force markets to reprice the risk of tighter US policy.
My core scenario has been that the UK would vote to remain in the EU and, if anything, that conviction has strengthened following recent surveys. The lifting of this uncertainty would see a reasonably competitive sterling appreciate, albeit modestly given the UK’s underlying structural deficiencies.
The document provides an overview of the current economic conditions in the United States, risks to the economy, a one-year forecast, and a policy recommendation from the Federal Reserve. It finds that aggregate demand is strengthening, labor markets are improving but still show some slack, and inflation remains below target. The forecast predicts real GDP growth of 2.7%, unemployment falling to 4.7%, and both overall and core PCE inflation around 1.7-1.8%. The policy recommendation is to raise the target federal funds rate range to 0.25-0.5% while continuing other quantitative easing programs.
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a quick review of the economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
The portfolio remained unchanged over the past week. While daily and total returns stabilized relative to the benchmark IVV, continued volatility is expected given uncertainty around the upcoming Brexit vote, Fed rate hike prospects, and presidential primary results. The manager plans to watch these factors closely and may reduce positions in more volatile assets like IYC and IEZ depending on market reactions.
This document provides a daily market insight report on currency pairs and economic indicators. It includes the following:
- Analysis of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD currency pairs and factors influencing their recent declines.
- An economic calendar of key upcoming data releases, including inflation reports, unemployment rates, and the FOMC statement and interest rate decision.
- Technical analysis and trading recommendations for GBP/USD and EUR/USD currency pairs, including buy and sell signals.
- Disclaimers regarding the information provided in the report.
Latvian consumer price inflation continued to decline in November 2011, falling to 4.2% annually from 4.7% in August. Food price growth decelerated significantly from May 2011, contributing to lower inflation, while fuel and housing services prices remained robust. Annual inflation is expected to remain near 4% in December, bringing the average for 2011 to 4.4%, marginally lower than previous forecasts. Inflation in 2012 is forecast at 2.4%, but may be lower if the Eurozone enters a new recession.
In this issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recent Fed rate hike and Euro Zone economic prospects, in the section on Global Trends. We have covered data trends in GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade in the Domestic Trends section. Find out the results of 2QFY16 In Corporate Performance section. Taxation section covers the views of Sumit Dutt Mazumder, former Chairman of CBEC on GST. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on Financial Conditions Index for 3QFY16. Read Focus of the Month, to know about ‘Skilling India’, wherein experts from diverse areas present their views.
Will RBI rate cut keep inflation under check in 2015?IndiaNotes.com
While RBI has begun the rate cut cycle, plenty of headroom for further cuts would be generated going forward as low inflation would be the defining feature of 2015.
A KSH a tegnapi napon publikálta a májusi inflációs adat. A közlés szerint 1,9% volt az áremelkedés üteme. Ez megegyezett a piaci elemzők konszenzusával, viszont meghaladta az OTP Elemzési Központ 1,9%-os várakozását.
- The pound rose against the U.S. dollar to its highest level since December after UK unemployment fell to a six-and-a-half year low.
- The euro initially gained against the dollar due to a selloff in global bonds but pared losses after Eurozone GDP growth came in below forecasts and industrial production declined unexpectedly.
- The report provides the daily international currency buzz and analysis of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD currency pairs, and includes economic calendar events and trading recommendations.
The Reserve Bank of India lowered its repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% in accordance with expectations. This was the third rate cut in 2015 and aimed to support growth given inflation remaining within the RBI's target and signs of transmission of previous rate cuts. However, upside risks to inflation remain from a forecast of below-average monsoon rains and potential increase in global interest rates. While growth is projected at 7.6%, downside risks are present from global and domestic factors. CARE expects the RBI to keep rates steady in August given inflationary threats, and further cuts are possible in the second half of the year if inflation remains low.
Daily Economic Update for December 14, 2010NAR Research
The producer price index increased in November for all finished goods and core goods excluding food and energy. Prices of core finished goods have increased between 0.5-2% annually for the past 13 months, below the 10-year average, but rising intermediate and crude goods prices suggest inflation over deflation in the coming year. Retail sales were strong in November, especially for general merchandise, sporting goods, books, music, and clothing as holiday shopping began. The Federal Reserve held interest rates near zero and will continue purchasing $600 billion in Treasury securities to balance inflation and deflation risks.
Inflation remains dangerously low in both the Eurozone and US, below central bank targets of 2%. With weak growth expected in Europe and disappointing recent data in the US, central banks are likely to keep monetary policy loose and interest rates low to guard against deflation. The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve may take further actions like interest rate cuts or adjustments to quantitative easing programs to stimulate growth and boost inflation closer to their targets. Low inflation and weak economies present a strong case for central banks to continue loose monetary policies, implying that interest rate increases are still some way off in both regions.
This report analyzes recent inflation data and forecasts inflation for Hungary over the next few years:
1. Inflation in Hungary was 2.5% in September, below most forecasts, due to a large drop in textbook prices. Underlying inflation indicators show little change.
2. The report forecasts inflation to remain below the central bank's 3% target through 2019. Lower fuel and food prices alongside government measures to reduce costs are expected to keep inflation modest.
3. Strong economic growth has not led to higher underlying inflation as expected, likely due to faster productivity growth and moderating wage growth. Inflation is projected to remain low, allowing the central bank to keep monetary policy loose.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India from the perspective of an advisory firm. It discusses positive developments in the domestic economy including higher than expected GDP growth in the first quarter and signs of recovery in industrial production. Inflation remains high but fuel prices are declining. The new government is pursuing reforms and the outlook is hopeful for continued economic revival. Globally, recovery is ongoing in the US and Eurozone which supports Indian markets, while falling oil prices are a major positive.
- The US economic stimulus program provided benefits not only for the US economy but globally by increasing access to cheap capital. However, announcing the withdrawal of stimulus caused volatility in emerging markets as investors pulled funds.
- While unemployment and inflation targets have not been met, economic indicators are trending in a positive direction. Corporate cash reserves and spending are up as is household wealth, though the recovery is not yet secure enough to withdraw stimulus immediately.
- A gradual withdrawal of stimulus over 2-3 years beginning in 2014 by slowly reducing bond purchases and incremental interest rate increases is recommended to have a smooth effect on markets.
BMA Capital - Pakistan economy fy15 inflation review and outlookbmacapital
Inflation in Pakistan declined significantly in FY15, averaging 4.56% compared to 8.62% in the previous fiscal year. This was driven by lower fuel and food inflation as well as stable exchange rates. Core inflation also trended downward, reaching 4.6% YoY in June 2015. However, inflation is expected to rise to around 6.2-6.5% in FY16 due to budgetary measures, higher energy prices, and increasing demand as interest rates fall. The central bank may cut rates further to 6.5% in July given lower recent inflation, but inflation is forecast to increase in the second half of FY16, potentially reversing monetary policy.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
On 13 July, the Ukrainian Parliament approved a draft of the pension reform in the first reading. Thus, Ukraine moved one step closer to the next IMF tranche, and in our base case scenario the fourth review may be accomplished and the fifth tranche be released this fall.
After the decline in industrial output earlier this year, recent development shows a return to growth. Retail sales dynamics remain strong. Nevertheless, the National Bank slightly cut its growth estimate for this year on the weak H1 and a weaker harvest estimate. We keep our conservative growth estimate of 1.5% yoy for the time being.
Inflation surprised to the upside to 15.6% on higher food prices in June. We now see growing risk that inflation may leave targeted for this year range (8% yoy +/-2 pp) from the upper bound, i.e. resulting in low double-digit inflation at year-end. So far, we keep our 2017 forecast at 9.5% yoy (eop).
UAH strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar in July, falling below the level of USD/UAH 26 and allowing the NBU to increase FX reserves to almost USD 18 bn. With inflation risks elevated, the NBU stopped cutting its key rate and kept it stable at 12.5% in July and August. However, some additional restrictions on the FX market were removed or may be removed soon.
Daily Forex News March 6th 2013 FCTOFX: The US Dollar weakened against commodity currencies and softened a bit against European majors as the DOW Jones jumped to close at record high of 14,253. Investor sentiment was solid on expectation that the Fed will continue its easing efforts after recent speeches by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and vice chairman Yellen. But the overall impact of risk sentiments on the currency markets was rather muted, as it has been lately. The Euro is stuck in a tight range above 1.3 against the dollar for the moment and even the sterling was limited well below a near term resistance at 1.5221 against the dollar. Also, USD/CAD is holding well above the 1.0216 minor support and there is no sign of a steeper selloff yet. Japanese Yen crosses were also clearly stuck in range.
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
Uptick in Qatar’s inflation is likely to be temporary QNB Group
Qatar's inflation remained moderate in the first seven months of 2015 at an average of 1.5% due to lower domestic and foreign inflation. Domestic inflation decreased as a result of falling housing rents and strong supply of new units. Foreign inflation declined because of lower global food prices and weak international commodity prices. Overall inflation is forecast to bottom out in 2015 before picking up in 2016-2017 as population growth increases demand and international food and oil prices recover.
This document provides a summary of a financial analysis of Pfizer conducted by Riley Bannon and Dylan Murphy. It includes an executive summary, purpose, methodology, economic analysis, industry forecast, analysis of Pfizer's competition and business, and conclusions and recommendations. The economic analysis forecasts modest GDP growth of around 2.8% annually through 2018, a declining unemployment rate, and gradual interest rate increases. The industry forecast expects continued strong demand for pharmaceuticals driven by an aging population, though tempered growth due to potential increased regulation. The document analyzes Pfizer's financials, business strategy, valuation, and competition to make an investment recommendation.
This document provides a summary and forecast of the Florida economy from 2014 to 2017. It finds that Florida's economy is expected to grow faster than the national economy during this period, with real GDP expanding at an average annual rate of 2.8% and payroll jobs growing by an average of 2.2% per year. The housing market is improving more slowly, with the median home sales price rising 4.6% in October 2014, and investor activity declining. Overall, the forecast expects continued moderate economic growth in Florida through 2017.
The document provides an overview of the current economic conditions in the United States, risks to the economy, a one-year forecast, and a policy recommendation from the Federal Reserve. It finds that aggregate demand is strengthening, labor markets are improving but still show some slack, and inflation remains below target. The forecast predicts real GDP growth of 2.7%, unemployment falling to 4.7%, and both overall and core PCE inflation around 1.7-1.8%. The policy recommendation is to raise the target federal funds rate range to 0.25-0.5% while continuing other quantitative easing programs.
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a quick review of the economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
The portfolio remained unchanged over the past week. While daily and total returns stabilized relative to the benchmark IVV, continued volatility is expected given uncertainty around the upcoming Brexit vote, Fed rate hike prospects, and presidential primary results. The manager plans to watch these factors closely and may reduce positions in more volatile assets like IYC and IEZ depending on market reactions.
This document provides a daily market insight report on currency pairs and economic indicators. It includes the following:
- Analysis of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD currency pairs and factors influencing their recent declines.
- An economic calendar of key upcoming data releases, including inflation reports, unemployment rates, and the FOMC statement and interest rate decision.
- Technical analysis and trading recommendations for GBP/USD and EUR/USD currency pairs, including buy and sell signals.
- Disclaimers regarding the information provided in the report.
Latvian consumer price inflation continued to decline in November 2011, falling to 4.2% annually from 4.7% in August. Food price growth decelerated significantly from May 2011, contributing to lower inflation, while fuel and housing services prices remained robust. Annual inflation is expected to remain near 4% in December, bringing the average for 2011 to 4.4%, marginally lower than previous forecasts. Inflation in 2012 is forecast at 2.4%, but may be lower if the Eurozone enters a new recession.
In this issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recent Fed rate hike and Euro Zone economic prospects, in the section on Global Trends. We have covered data trends in GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade in the Domestic Trends section. Find out the results of 2QFY16 In Corporate Performance section. Taxation section covers the views of Sumit Dutt Mazumder, former Chairman of CBEC on GST. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on Financial Conditions Index for 3QFY16. Read Focus of the Month, to know about ‘Skilling India’, wherein experts from diverse areas present their views.
Will RBI rate cut keep inflation under check in 2015?IndiaNotes.com
While RBI has begun the rate cut cycle, plenty of headroom for further cuts would be generated going forward as low inflation would be the defining feature of 2015.
A KSH a tegnapi napon publikálta a májusi inflációs adat. A közlés szerint 1,9% volt az áremelkedés üteme. Ez megegyezett a piaci elemzők konszenzusával, viszont meghaladta az OTP Elemzési Központ 1,9%-os várakozását.
- The pound rose against the U.S. dollar to its highest level since December after UK unemployment fell to a six-and-a-half year low.
- The euro initially gained against the dollar due to a selloff in global bonds but pared losses after Eurozone GDP growth came in below forecasts and industrial production declined unexpectedly.
- The report provides the daily international currency buzz and analysis of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD currency pairs, and includes economic calendar events and trading recommendations.
The Reserve Bank of India lowered its repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% in accordance with expectations. This was the third rate cut in 2015 and aimed to support growth given inflation remaining within the RBI's target and signs of transmission of previous rate cuts. However, upside risks to inflation remain from a forecast of below-average monsoon rains and potential increase in global interest rates. While growth is projected at 7.6%, downside risks are present from global and domestic factors. CARE expects the RBI to keep rates steady in August given inflationary threats, and further cuts are possible in the second half of the year if inflation remains low.
Daily Economic Update for December 14, 2010NAR Research
The producer price index increased in November for all finished goods and core goods excluding food and energy. Prices of core finished goods have increased between 0.5-2% annually for the past 13 months, below the 10-year average, but rising intermediate and crude goods prices suggest inflation over deflation in the coming year. Retail sales were strong in November, especially for general merchandise, sporting goods, books, music, and clothing as holiday shopping began. The Federal Reserve held interest rates near zero and will continue purchasing $600 billion in Treasury securities to balance inflation and deflation risks.
Inflation remains dangerously low in both the Eurozone and US, below central bank targets of 2%. With weak growth expected in Europe and disappointing recent data in the US, central banks are likely to keep monetary policy loose and interest rates low to guard against deflation. The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve may take further actions like interest rate cuts or adjustments to quantitative easing programs to stimulate growth and boost inflation closer to their targets. Low inflation and weak economies present a strong case for central banks to continue loose monetary policies, implying that interest rate increases are still some way off in both regions.
This report analyzes recent inflation data and forecasts inflation for Hungary over the next few years:
1. Inflation in Hungary was 2.5% in September, below most forecasts, due to a large drop in textbook prices. Underlying inflation indicators show little change.
2. The report forecasts inflation to remain below the central bank's 3% target through 2019. Lower fuel and food prices alongside government measures to reduce costs are expected to keep inflation modest.
3. Strong economic growth has not led to higher underlying inflation as expected, likely due to faster productivity growth and moderating wage growth. Inflation is projected to remain low, allowing the central bank to keep monetary policy loose.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India from the perspective of an advisory firm. It discusses positive developments in the domestic economy including higher than expected GDP growth in the first quarter and signs of recovery in industrial production. Inflation remains high but fuel prices are declining. The new government is pursuing reforms and the outlook is hopeful for continued economic revival. Globally, recovery is ongoing in the US and Eurozone which supports Indian markets, while falling oil prices are a major positive.
- The US economic stimulus program provided benefits not only for the US economy but globally by increasing access to cheap capital. However, announcing the withdrawal of stimulus caused volatility in emerging markets as investors pulled funds.
- While unemployment and inflation targets have not been met, economic indicators are trending in a positive direction. Corporate cash reserves and spending are up as is household wealth, though the recovery is not yet secure enough to withdraw stimulus immediately.
- A gradual withdrawal of stimulus over 2-3 years beginning in 2014 by slowly reducing bond purchases and incremental interest rate increases is recommended to have a smooth effect on markets.
BMA Capital - Pakistan economy fy15 inflation review and outlookbmacapital
Inflation in Pakistan declined significantly in FY15, averaging 4.56% compared to 8.62% in the previous fiscal year. This was driven by lower fuel and food inflation as well as stable exchange rates. Core inflation also trended downward, reaching 4.6% YoY in June 2015. However, inflation is expected to rise to around 6.2-6.5% in FY16 due to budgetary measures, higher energy prices, and increasing demand as interest rates fall. The central bank may cut rates further to 6.5% in July given lower recent inflation, but inflation is forecast to increase in the second half of FY16, potentially reversing monetary policy.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
On 13 July, the Ukrainian Parliament approved a draft of the pension reform in the first reading. Thus, Ukraine moved one step closer to the next IMF tranche, and in our base case scenario the fourth review may be accomplished and the fifth tranche be released this fall.
After the decline in industrial output earlier this year, recent development shows a return to growth. Retail sales dynamics remain strong. Nevertheless, the National Bank slightly cut its growth estimate for this year on the weak H1 and a weaker harvest estimate. We keep our conservative growth estimate of 1.5% yoy for the time being.
Inflation surprised to the upside to 15.6% on higher food prices in June. We now see growing risk that inflation may leave targeted for this year range (8% yoy +/-2 pp) from the upper bound, i.e. resulting in low double-digit inflation at year-end. So far, we keep our 2017 forecast at 9.5% yoy (eop).
UAH strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar in July, falling below the level of USD/UAH 26 and allowing the NBU to increase FX reserves to almost USD 18 bn. With inflation risks elevated, the NBU stopped cutting its key rate and kept it stable at 12.5% in July and August. However, some additional restrictions on the FX market were removed or may be removed soon.
Daily Forex News March 6th 2013 FCTOFX: The US Dollar weakened against commodity currencies and softened a bit against European majors as the DOW Jones jumped to close at record high of 14,253. Investor sentiment was solid on expectation that the Fed will continue its easing efforts after recent speeches by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and vice chairman Yellen. But the overall impact of risk sentiments on the currency markets was rather muted, as it has been lately. The Euro is stuck in a tight range above 1.3 against the dollar for the moment and even the sterling was limited well below a near term resistance at 1.5221 against the dollar. Also, USD/CAD is holding well above the 1.0216 minor support and there is no sign of a steeper selloff yet. Japanese Yen crosses were also clearly stuck in range.
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
Uptick in Qatar’s inflation is likely to be temporary QNB Group
Qatar's inflation remained moderate in the first seven months of 2015 at an average of 1.5% due to lower domestic and foreign inflation. Domestic inflation decreased as a result of falling housing rents and strong supply of new units. Foreign inflation declined because of lower global food prices and weak international commodity prices. Overall inflation is forecast to bottom out in 2015 before picking up in 2016-2017 as population growth increases demand and international food and oil prices recover.
This document provides a summary of a financial analysis of Pfizer conducted by Riley Bannon and Dylan Murphy. It includes an executive summary, purpose, methodology, economic analysis, industry forecast, analysis of Pfizer's competition and business, and conclusions and recommendations. The economic analysis forecasts modest GDP growth of around 2.8% annually through 2018, a declining unemployment rate, and gradual interest rate increases. The industry forecast expects continued strong demand for pharmaceuticals driven by an aging population, though tempered growth due to potential increased regulation. The document analyzes Pfizer's financials, business strategy, valuation, and competition to make an investment recommendation.
This document provides a summary and forecast of the Florida economy from 2014 to 2017. It finds that Florida's economy is expected to grow faster than the national economy during this period, with real GDP expanding at an average annual rate of 2.8% and payroll jobs growing by an average of 2.2% per year. The housing market is improving more slowly, with the median home sales price rising 4.6% in October 2014, and investor activity declining. Overall, the forecast expects continued moderate economic growth in Florida through 2017.
- The document provides an economic outlook and recommendations for a moderately conservative investment portfolio for client Jordan Belfort.
- It analyzes factors like GDP growth, unemployment, consumer confidence, housing, and jobless claims to predict continued slow economic recovery in the US and globally over the next few years.
- Based on this outlook, it recommends a portfolio allocation of 20% equities, 35% bonds, 40% mutual funds and ETFs, and 5% cash, with overweight positions in dividend-paying equities and investment-grade corporate debt.
1Introduction My name is Yinan Hong. I am your port.docxaryan532920
1
Introduction
My name is Yinan Hong. I am your portfolio manager from Trailblazer
Investment Advisors. I am a CFA charter holder, equipped with sufficient financial
knowledge. I will help my customers manage their wealth and try my best to gain??
as much as possible. There are three objectives for my clients, Sam and Amy
Kratchman who have recently inherited … and have current savingswith
$1,100,000(on an after-tax basis) inheritance. The first one is having enough money
for their life after retirement at age 65. The second objective is raising college tuition
for their two children. The last one is to buy a beach house with newfound inheritance.
Ending summary
Economic Analysis
2014
GDP Growth
The economic recovery of United States in 2014 became a light brightspot in
global economy after the 2009 recession. The low price level do you mean low infl?
If so that isn’t really a great thing at the current time, decreasing unemployment rate,
better development of the what is the estate?estate and manufacturing industry made
the economy continuously recover although at a much lower rate than prev recoveries.
However, some important indexes like the investment of the real estate, income of
amy kratchman � 2016/10/16 12:32 PM
已设置格式: ⾏行行距: 1.5 倍⾏行行距
2
residents residents?, manufacturing have not reached to the same level as it performed
before the recession in 2014 – true – but RE was performing very well and is a strong
area of growth in 14. The percentage change in Real Gross Domestic Product in 2014
increased in the former three quarters and then decrease in the Q4.not true
In the first quarter, the change of GDP was 2.1% not correctnegative growth1.
The most important factor was the abominable weather. The personal consumption
expenditures for nondurable goods decreased because 1what is this? the inconvenient
of buying your table (footnoted) does not imply a decrease. The Gross private
domestic investment decreased 6.6% because of the huge lower equipment
investment1. The exports decreased extremely and the imports increased. They all led
to the negative growth.
Figure12 : CCI Index in 2014
The GDP growth reached to 4.0% in the second quarter. By analyzing the
components that affected overall GDP growth, personal consumption expenditures
1http://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=9&step=1#reqid=9&step=3&isuri=1&904=2013&903=1&9
06=q&905=2016&910=x&911=0
2 FactSet
3
and gross private domestic investment played an important role in this significant
growth. Consumption contributed 2.56% change in GDP. After the severe weather,
the private inventory investment, exports, fixed investment, and non-federal
government spending increased.this is a rebound in pretty much all areas However, 5%
more imports negatively impact GDP and offset those positive contributors.
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also ...
Role of CFO in Economic Turnaround, Present Macro-Economic Conditions, New Changes in Reforms & Policies, Evolving Role of CFO , Impact of Changes on CFO
Newsletter Winter 2015- Vol 22 No 2 -final revisionAshley Walston
This document provides an overview of recent developments in the ECU Department of Economics from the Chair's perspective. Some key points:
- The Chair, Dr. Richard Ericson, is stepping down after 12 years in the role. A search for a new Chair is underway.
- The Department has grown substantially over Dr. Ericson's tenure, with faculty increasing from 11 to 19 and majors from 110 to 180. Over 1100 alumni have graduated.
- The Department faces budget cuts but remains strong in teaching and research. A new faculty member, Dr. Jacob Hochard, was recently hired.
- 37 students graduated with BA/BS degrees in fall 2014. Guest speaker at the graduation ceremony
The document provides outlooks from leaders of Franklin Templeton on the global macro environment, global equities, and multi-strategy solutions. It includes the following key points:
- Michael Hasenstab discusses expectations for continuing US economic growth and rising interest rates from the Fed, while the BOJ and ECB maintain quantitative easing. Emerging markets show differences that will be magnified by US rate hikes.
- Ed Perks oversees equity teams that share insights across markets to strengthen convictions.
- Rick Frisbie's group incorporates long-term capital market expectations into portfolio positioning for the next 5-10 years.
The report provides an overview of macroeconomic trends and outlooks for various regions and sectors. For the domestic economy, while facing some headwinds, growth is expected to continue in 2016 driven by strong consumer spending. In Europe, recovery is expected to continue but at a slow pace due to global uncertainties. China is undergoing an economic transition and growth is projected to slow, posing risks globally. Emerging markets face challenges from China's slowdown and commodity price declines but conditions are projected to improve in 2016.
SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION
HealthView Services’ 2016 Retirement Health Care Costs Data Report explores emerging trends and provides
detailed projections of health care expenses in retirement.
The paper will address the impact of rising in-retirement health care inflation, the elimination of Social Security
filing strategies, and adjustments to Medicare-surcharge brackets on future health care costs.
The Report also outlines costs related to state of residence, years to retirement, extent of coverage, gender, health
status, and income: all of which must be considered by financial advisors when planning for future medical
expenses at the individual level.
Finally, some time will be spent analyzing investment strategies, including personal time horizons (both before
and during retirement) and the adjustment of income replacement ratios, to minimize the effect of rising health
care on retirement budgets.
Index has almost doubled from its bottom during the COVID 19 . Street is further happy on the budget announcements and speech on 1st February. Read our experts view on all this and more
This document provides an overview and analysis of the US and global economies in 2014 and an outlook for 2015. In 2014, US GDP growth recovered from a weak first quarter, driven by strong growth in the second and third quarters. Unemployment continued to decline. For 2015, the outlook expects US GDP growth to reach 3.0% due to continued job growth, increased consumer spending power from lower oil prices, and a pickup in business investment. However, weakness abroad and a strong dollar may impact trade.
The document provides a newsletter discussing investments and the market. It discusses whether the bull run in the stock market will continue after the recent union budget in India. It provides perspectives from equity experts on the budget and its potential impact on corporate earnings and the market. It recommends that investors should not flee from equities but do proper rebalancing across sectors, company sizes, and mutual fund types. The budget focused on infrastructure spending which could boost sectors like construction and materials companies.
BU 701Professor Linda MeltzerAssignment # 1Summe.docxhartrobert670
BU 701 Professor Linda Meltzer
Assignment # 1 Summer 2015
Topic: The Fed's Impact on the Financial Markets
Due Date: June 11th
In Module 2, we are focused on the Federal Reserve: its organzation, its main role, goals and targets, and its tools. For this assignment, you will look for and review:
· Latest FOMC Federal Open Market Committee, the policy making body of the Fed) minutes which is a detailed transcript of what happened at the last Fed meeting, and staff and Governor's outlook for financial markets, economy and future expectations. The latest minutes as of now is from April 28-29 meeting and was released in May. Many ways to find it. Make sure you look at whole transcript and not the summary.
· Find latest speech or comments made by Chair Yellen AFTER the meeting in April. She speaks frequently and CNBC picks up her comments so should be very easy to find. Also, find what analysts have said about Yellen's comments.
In a 1-2 page writeup, discuss:
1) key economic conditions that the FED is looking closely at and its significance to their policy as to whether they are going to raise interest rates in 2015;
2) From your reading of the material, how does the FED's action impact financial markets (bonds, stocks, money markets);
3) Has Chair Yellen's recent comments (and feel free to explore other members of the FED eg Gov. Brainerd who has spoken to CNBC other day) changed from last meeting? How?; and
4) You can use any opinions written by financial experts (you can find their analysis on CNBC, CNN, Marketwatch et al) just make sure to footnote or provide sources.
Note: As this is a writing intensive class, please take care with writing grammatically correct, capitalize where needed, and full sentences. No slang.
Grading Guide: Clinical Assessment in Mental Health Centers Newspaper Article
PSYCH/655 Version 2
1
Grading Guide
Clinical Assessment in Mental Health Centers Newspaper Article
This assignment is due in Week Six.
Content
60 Percent
Points Earned
X/6
· Discusses issues with culturally informed assessments
· Discusses issues with assessments of addiction and substance abuse
· Discusses issues with custody evaluations
Comments:
Organization and Development
20 Percent
Points Earned
X/2
· The paper is 1,000 to 1,250 words in length.
· The paper is clear and organized; major points are supported by details, examples, or analysis.
· The tone aligns with the assignment’s purpose and is geared toward the appropriate audience.
· The paper provides relevant and sufficient background on the topic.
· The paper is logical, flows, and reviews the major points.
Comments:
Mechanics and Format
20 Percent
Points Earned
X/2
· The assignment file is presentable and functional.
· Rules of grammar, usage, and punctuation are followed; spelling is correct.
· The paper—including the title page, reference page, tables, and any appendices—is consistent with APA guidelines.
Comments:
Additional Comments:
Total Earned
X/10 ...
Global data retail 2016 election briefingDarran Blatch
Not for the first time in his life, Donald Trump has stunned the nation and the world. His largely unexpected victory heralds political change of a kind that only comes once in a generation. Such change, by its nature, breeds uncertainty. This paper outlines some of the impacts President-elect Trump and his administration are likely to have on retail over the short and medium term.
Global data retail 2016 election briefingDarran Blatch
Not for the first time in his life, Donald Trump has stunned the nation and the world. His largely unexpected victory heralds political change of a kind that only comes once in a generation. Such change, by its nature, breeds uncertainty. This paper outlines some of the impacts President-elect Trump and his administration are likely to have on retail over the short and medium term.
Shipra finance will the bull run continue in equity market-feb-21Binod Shukla
If you are a long-term
investor in the stock market, you can’t possibly lose”. Those
watching the NIFTY’s dizzying rise since March 2020, will find it hard to
disagree. From almost 7500 in April 2020, the NIFTY index has soared to
around 14,000 in January, 2021. It has not been a smooth ride during
COVID crisis, but if you had the stomach to hang on to the equities, you
would have ended up with an annual return over 14% and around 80%
from its bottom
Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy in a Changing WorldTRECDallas
Remarks before the Dallas chapters of Financial Executives International, the Association for Corporate Growth and the National Association of Corporate Directors
Dallas · January 11, 2016
The Finance Minister presented the 2014-15 Budget, laying out the economic challenges facing India including slow growth, high inflation, and fiscal deficit. He announced various reforms such as increasing FDI limits, bank capitalization, infrastructure development, skill development initiatives, and tax reforms to reduce litigation and boost investment. The Budget aimed to revive growth while ensuring fiscal prudence and targeting programs to reduce poverty and boost development across India.
1. D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 4
U.S. Forecast
I n s t i t u t e f o r E c o n o m i c C o m p e t i t i v e n e s s
C o l l e g e o f B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n
U n i v e r s i t y o f C e n t r a l F l o r i d a
2. A B O U T U N I V E R S I T Y O F
C E N T R A L F LO R I DA ( U C F )
A B O U T T H E C O L L E G E O F
B U S I N E S S A D M I N I S T R AT I O N
4. HIGHLIGH TS OF T HE 4Q 2014 U. S. FOR ECA ST
HIGHLIGHTS In this Issue of the U.S. Forecast:
• Our low carb recovery: how overreaching laws and regulations are choking off
our economic engine.
• Strengthening of the U.S. dollar will work to slow export growth and boost
import growth as will relatively stronger economic growth in the U.S. Thus,
net exports will increasingly hold down U.S. real GDP growth in the coming
years.
• The Fed will commence a cycle of raising interest rates starting in the 4th
quarter of 2015. This action will bring an end to a six-year stretch where gains
in the stock market averaged double-digits. The S&P 500 will average just
1.0% growth during 2016-2017. Volatility should rise as interest rate hikes
draw nearer.
• Real GDP growth in the 4th
quarter of 2014 will be just 1.6%, before rising
again in the 1st
quarter to 2.1%. Growth will gradually rise to 2.3% in 2015,
2.4% in 2016, and 2.7% in 2017 as the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates.
• Consumption spending growth should slowly improve over the forecast
horizon. The 2014 holiday shopping season should be a mild improvement
over last year’s disappointing season. Lower gasoline prices will provide a little
extra spending cash this season and should make consumers just a little more
jolly.
• Real consumer spending is expected to grow an average of 2.6% during 2014-
2017, while gradually accelerating over this period to 2.8% growth in 2017.
Consumers’ balance sheets continue to heal thanks to the housing market
rebound. This and the continued labor market recovery will both support
consumption spending growth, particularly if wage growth sticks around
beyond November’s uptick.
• The housing market continues to recover. Mortgage credit availability will be
critical to the continued recovery. The housing market should steadily improve
through 2016 when rising rates take their toll and housing starts level off.
Housing starts will rise from 999,137 in 2014 to 1,449,673 in 2017.
• Payroll employment growth remains sluggish. Inhibiting more robust
economic growth, policy uncertainty and the implementation of Affordable
Care Act mandates will weigh on the private sector. Consequently, payrolls
will expand 1.8% in 2014 and 1.6% 2015. Growth in 2016 slips to 1.2% before
easing to 1.0% in 2017 as the Affordable Care Act is fully implemented.
• Unemployment rates (U-3) are expected to fall slightly to 5.7% in the
next two quarters before drifting up to 5.8% in the 4th
quarter of 2017.
Underemployment (U-6) remains a serious problem and currently stands at
11.4%.
5. Institute for Economic Competitiveness 5
U . S . F O R E C A S T
The title of this section may have initially had you
thinking about carbohydrates. As I wrote it, carbohydrates
were on my mind too, but not in my mouth. After a hectic
semester that put a real crimp in my exercise regime, I
felt it was necessary to take some drastic measures to
address the expansion of my waistline. That expansion put
U.S. economic growth to shame and, in fact, outpaced
economic growth in China as well.
So I made the difficult decision to go on a low-carb
diet just as the holiday eating season was kicking into
high gear. Unlike the restrictions of low fat, low calorie
diets, I am free to eat meats and cheeses, eggs and bacon,
and many more no no’s on other diets, which makes this
regime more tolerable than counting calories. I don’t feel
as hungry as I might on a traditional diet.
But all diets require sacrifices and it is carbohydrates that
I have sworn off. No fruits or fruit juices. No candy, no
cookies, no cake. No pasta, no bread, no french fries, no
pizza (aside from my invention of plate pizza: mozzarella
cheese on a plate with pepperoni on top of it all melted in
the microwave), no donuts, no pastries. No fun.
Of course you always want what you can’t have.
Phycologists call this phenomena reactance, and
carbohydrates have been elevated in my mind as far as
desirability is concerned.
Grocery shopping is difficult. Publix always seems to
place their bakeries in the front of the store, forcing you to
walk through a cavalcade of carbohydrates upon entering.
This sends my mind reeling into a fantasy world in which
I am diving into a pit of sourdough baguettes, their rough
crusts rubbing my skin, their heavenly aroma sending
my olfactory nerve into paroxysms, rolling around taking
bites of each crunch-chewy loaf that gets near my mouth.
I contemplate hiding in the produce section, lying in wait
for the next unsuspecting child to pass by so I can snatch
the free bakery cookie from their unappreciative little
hands.
No, carbohydrates were not what I meant as I wrote
that title, but rather carburetion. Carburetion is the
process of producing a mixture of air and fuel in the
correct proportion for combustion to occur in an internal
combustion engine. Internal combustion engines are
the type of engines that power automobiles and trucks,
jet planes and jet skis, lawnmowers and leaf blowers. A
carburetor is a device on these engines that is responsible
for this necessary process taking place (on many engines
this device is being replaced by fuel injectors).
If the mix of air and fuel is not appropriate then the
engine will not function properly. The symptoms of
carburetor problems can include erratic performance of the
engine and poor acceleration. Fuel may be getting to the
engine, but if there is not enough air being mixed into the
fuel then the engine is not going to function properly.
The engine of our economy is not suffering for lack
of fuel. The Federal Reserve Bank has made $4 trillion
worth of purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-
backed bonds, and pursued a policy of a zero interest
rate target that has been in place since 2009. The Federal
Government implemented a massive stimulus program
of $831 billion and has run budget deficits that will total
more than $6.7 trillion by the end of 2014. There has been
no lack of fuel pumped into our economic engine, yet the
economy has failed to accelerate and its performance has
been poor. Average real GDP growth from 2010 through
2014 should be just 2.2%.
What, then, is the problem? Well, after your two
paragraphs worth of mechanics training you have probably
correctly diagnosed that it is a lack of air that is preventing
the carburetion from taking place in our economy.
Choking off the air flow has caused the economy to
sputter its way through the first five and a half years of this
recovery.
So what is cutting off the air flow? We have written
repeatedly about the deleterious effects of the Affordable
Care Act and the Dodd-Frank financial regulatory reform
law in these forecasts, and both laws still weigh on the
economy, cutting off the critical air-flow to the engine.
Dodd-Frank was signed into law on July 21, 2010, about
four months after the Affordable Care Act became law.
Almost four and a half years later neither of these laws has
The Low Carb Recovery
Overreaching and Oppressive Policies and Regulations
are Choking Our Economic Engine
6. 6 U.S. Forecast | December 2014
U . S . F O R E C A S T
been fully implemented, and it will be several more years
before either one is completely enacted. The uncertainty
surrounding these massive laws has sucked much of the air
out of the engine of our economy. But they are not alone
in inhibiting our economic carburetion.
In the shadows of these gargantuan laws there have
been a large number of smaller regulatory actions taking
place. Just because they are smaller in scope doesn’t mean
they are economically insignificant. In fact, the Office of
Information and Regulatory Affairs analyzes regulations
and assesses their economic impact. Regulations are
like taxes in that they have an economic cost and when
you regulate an activity you likely will have less of that
activity taking place. When a regulation has an impact on
the economy of over $100 million the OIRA labels the
regulation as economically significant. This administration
has issued 50% more economically significant regulations
(many associated with the above laws) than the Bush
administration did. The Obama administration has issued
406 such regulations thus far, with more on the way. This
red tape also chokes off the flow of air into the economy’s
engine, and we are strangling growth by implementing so
many of these rules.
We have provided plenty of fuel to our economy’s engine
but are experiencing a low carb(uretion) recovery by
cutting off the air that could rev up our economy.
Anybody know a good mechanic?
The staff at the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank has spun
together 13 labor market indicators into a single chart. The
Labor Market Spider Chart allows for a quick assessment
of the health of the broader labor market beyond just
headline unemployment and payroll job changes. Looking
only at these indicators has given a false impression of how
U.S. labor market is truly faring.
The spider chart does incorporate
these two headline measures alongside
11 others for a wider look at the health
of the U.S. labor market. The chart,
displayed in Figure 1, is divided into four
quadrants, each capturing a different
dimension of the labor market. The upper
left quadrant shows leading indicators
of the labor market and includes initial
claims for unemployment, firms unable
to fill job openings, and temporary help
services. The lower left quadrant displays
measures of labor market utilization and
includes workers who want to work full-
time but can only find part time work,
the job finding rate, workers marginally
attached to the labor force, and
unemployment. The lower right quadrant
displays indicators of confidence in the
labor market and includes the number
of employee quits, job availability, and
hiring plans. The upper right quadrant
reflects employer behavior and includes
data measuring payroll employment,
hires, and job openings.
The light grey dashed inner circle
represents the values of these indicators
at the time of the trough in employment
that took place in December 2009 (the
labor market’s bottom actually occurred
Figure 1. Labor Marker Spider Chart,
October 2014 and August 2014 Levels
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The interactive spider chart may be found here:
http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/labormarket/
7. Institute for Economic Competitiveness 7
U . S . F O R E C A S T
after the official end of the recession, which was June
2009). The dark grey dashed outer circle represents the
values of these indicators in December 2007 which was
the prerecession peak in the labor market. The darker solid
line is the value of these indicators as of August 2014 and
the lighter solid line is the values for October 2014.
Movement along each one of the thirteen strands in the
spider chart from the inner circle toward the outer circle
represents improvement along each of these dimensions
of the labor market’s health. Six of the thirteen measures
have already exceeded their prerecession peak levels.
However, the remaining seven, including all four measures
of utilization and all three confidence measures, remain
below prerecession levels.
From August to October there were varying degrees of
progress in ten of the indicators and regression in three.
The Federal Reserve Bank has referred on several
occasions to ongoing slack in the labor market. This slack
is reflected in the weak recovery of the indicators in the
utilization quadrant of the Atlanta Fed’s Spider Chart.
Two of these indicators, work part-time for economic
reasons and marginally attached workers, are also reflected
in the persistently high levels of the broadest measure of
unemployment, U-6, which still stands at 11.4%.
This slack in the labor market has kept wage growth
low, despite November’s faster-than-expected growth,
and is part of the reason why consumer spending growth
has remained muted in the sixth year of this economic
recovery. Many are pointing to the fact that the U.S. has
exceeded prerecession levels of payroll employment, or
the fact that the US labor market has added an average
of 241,000 jobs for the first eleven months of 2014 as
evidence that the U.S. is healthy and recovering robustly.
This slack still leaves room for the Fed to take their time
deliberating when and how quickly to raise interest rates
in 2015, which we don’t anticipate until late in 2015 at the
earliest.
Anxious Index
Economists Still not Worried About Recession
The most recent release (4th
quarter of 2014) of the
Survey of Professional Forecasters by the Federal Reserve
Bank of Philadelphia suggests that the 37 forecasters
surveyed for the publication are just 10.32% convinced
that a decline in real GDP will occur in the 1st
quarter of
2015. This quarter’s release reflects a very slight uptick in
forecasters’ anxiety, their worries allayed by a rebound of
2nd
quarter real GDP growth to 4.6% from a 1st
quarter
Figure 2.
Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
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The Anxious Index
Probability of Decline in Real GDP in the Following Quarter
Quarterly, 1968:Q4 to 2014:Q4
8. 8 U.S. Forecast | December 2014
U . S . F O R E C A S T
contraction of 2.1% and an advance reading on GDP
growth for the third quarter that came in at 3.5%. The
index has dropped significantly from the recession’s peak
level of 23.04% in the 4th
quarter of 2012 when fears of
the so-called fiscal cliff triggering a recession heightened
forecasters’ worries.
In one section of the Survey of Professional Forecasters
panelists are asked to estimate the probability that real
GDP will decline in the quarter in which the survey is
taken, as well as the probabilities of a decline in each
of the following four quarters. The anxious index (a
term coined by The New York Times reporter David
Leonhardt) is the probability of a decline in real GDP in
the quarter after a survey is taken. In the survey taken in
the 4th
quarter of 2014 the index stands at 10.32, which
means that forecasters believe there is a 10.32% chance
that real GDP will decline in the 1st
quarter of 2015.
The forecasters also report just an 8.12% chance that we
are currently (as of the 4th
quarter of 2014) experiencing
a contraction in real GDP. According to the panel, the
probability that we will fall back into recession is averaging
around 11.95% through the end of the 4th
quarter of 2015,
which implies the forecasters’ assignment of probability
for a contraction in real GDP in the upcoming year has
increased slightly since last quarter’s survey.
The Figure 2 plots the historical values of the anxious
index, where the gray bars indicate periods of recession in
the U.S. economy. The current level of the anxious index
is below the average level during the economic recovery
(13.96), and is 0.58 points higher than the 3rd
quarter.
GDP Outlook
Third Quarter Boosters to Real GDP Growth
Will Dissipate, or Worse, in the Fourth Quarter
After contracting in the first quarter of 2014 by 2.1%,
the U.S. economy strung together two consecutive
quarters of robust growth, rebounding from the weather-
burdened first three month of the year. This was the
second time during the five and a half years since the
Great Recession came to an end that the economy was
able to manage back-to-back quarters of real GDP growth
in excess of 3%. Will the fourth quarter be the third
consecutive quarter of 3% or higher economic growth?
I don’t think so.
While I may be on the pessimistic side with a forecast of
just 1.6% growth in real GDP for the final three months
of 2014, there were a number of factors that helped drive
the third quarter growth in real GDP that will not be
present in the fourth quarter.
Federal government spending, particularly on defense,
surged in the third quarter. The fiscal year was coming to
a close and with it a need to spend through budgets. New
spending related to the actions taken against ISIS in Iraq
and Syria combined to cause federal defense spending to
grow at a 16% rate in the third quarter. This spending
grew just 0.9% in the second quarter. This surge in defense
spending added nearly seven tenths of a percentage point
to GDP growth in the third quarter.
This will not happen in the fourth quarter; in fact we
will likely see federal spending becoming a net drag on
economic growth. In 2012 we witnessed a similar third
quarter surge in defense spending that was followed
by two quarters of double-digit contraction. Defense
spending in 2012 shot up 11.9% during the third quarter
only to contract 20.1% and 10.9% in the following two
quarters. As a result, defense spending added six tenths of
a percentage point to GDP growth in the third quarter but
then subtracted a total of 1.7 percentage points for GDP
growth in the two quarters that followed.
What the end of the fiscal year defense spending
bursts giveth they also taketh away. Federal government
spending will be a large drag on 4th
quarter GDP growth
this year.
Another drag that will be increasingly and persistently
weighing down GDP growth over the next several years
is the foreign sector. Exports have grown at a solid pace
for much of the recovery, lessening the drag of net exports
on GDP growth, while at the same time import growth
was occurring at a slower rate. Together these trends led
to a significant improvement of U.S. net exports from
roughly -$794 billion in 2006 to -$420.5 billion in 2013.
The recent strengthening of the dollar beginning in 2012
is predicted to continue through 2015. This will make U.S.
exports more expensive to foreigners and at the same time
make imports less expensive in the U.S. Both of these
effects will work to widen the trade gap.
The widening is exacerbated by a slowing in the
economies of many of the U.S. trading partners and the
relative strength in the U.S. economy. This will further
result in slower export growth and faster growth of
imports in the U.S. Consequently, net exports are expected
to fall from -$420.5 billion in 2013 to -$594 billion in
2017.
9. Institute for Economic Competitiveness 9
U . S . F O R E C A S T
Net Exports added 0.78 percentage points to GDP
growth in the third quarter. That boost to GDP growth
will turn to a drag in the fourth quarter and continue to
weigh down GDP growth through the end of our forecast
horizon.
The most recent four quarters of real GDP growth have
spanned a range from 4.6% to a negative 2.1%. During the
second half of 2013, revised annualized real GDP growth
was 4.5% in Q3 and 3.5% in Q4. That was the first time
in this recovery when there were back-to-back quarters of
real GDP growth in excess of 3.0%. The second time this
happened was Q2 and Q3 in 2014.
The next four quarters of GDP growth will be 1.6%
in Q4 2014 followed by 2.1% in Q1, 1.90% in Q2, and
2.4% in Q3 of 2015. Average quarterly growth from there
through the end of the forecast horizon (2017 Q4) will be
2.5%
In 2015 we are expecting real GDP growth of 2.3%, and
2.4% in 2016 before rising slightly to 2.7% in 2017 as the
tightening of monetary policy in 2016 and 2017 begins to
restrain growth.
The Affordable Care Act and Dodd Frank financial
regulatory reform law continue to be a drag on the
economy. More than four years have passed since these
two massive bills were signed into law, and neither one has
been fully implemented, nor will they be anytime soon.
On top of these laws have been scores of economically
significant regulations implemented during this recovery.
The rules of the game matter; they change the way the
players will play the game.
The bottom line is that the pace of this economic
recovery has and will remain range-bound through
2017 unless legislative action is taken to resolve policy
uncertainty and to provide regulatory relief (which despite
the 2014 midterm elections does not look likely before the
2016 presidential election). In absence of any regulatory
respite, growth will average 2.4% for the 2014-2017
horizon.
C O N S U M E R S P E N D I N G
Will Cheaper Gas Rev Up Consumers?
Personal consumption expenditures have had average
growth thus far in 2014 of just 2.0%. The precipitous
plunge in the price of gasoline has added a little extra
spending cash to consumers’ pocketbooks. The timing of
the decline coincides with the holiday shopping season
so perhaps may lead to a little more spending by holiday
shoppers.
The average household spends about 4.6% of its
disposable income on gasoline for an average of $2,611
a year according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’
Consumer Expenditure Survey. Gasoline prices are down
17.4% from a year ago, which translates into an annual
reduction of spending on gasoline of approximately $455,
or about $38 per month.
This is a welcome windfall of domestic hydraulic
fracking, but since much of the price decline actually
took place in the past three months, the actual boost to
consumer’s disposable income this holiday season will be
much smaller than the annualized figure of $455.
Consumer spending has averaged a paltry 2.2% growth
rate from the 4th
quarter of 2010 through the 3rd
quarter
of 2014. There have been occasional swells in spending
growth, but they have been short-lived. There have been
three quarters where growth has been in excess of 3.0%
since the 4th
quarter of 2010: in that quarter, 2013Q1
and 2013Q4. All were followed by a rapid deceleration
in spending growth during the quarters that followed. If
you exclude those three quarters from the calculation of
the average consumption spending growth rates since the
recession’s end, the 2.2% average becomes just 1.8%.
In this economic recovery U.S. consumers have exhibited
temporary glimpses of the spending prowess that they
have displayed in previous recoveries, but afterward they
pull back and return to the weak pattern of spending
growth that led up to these temporary bursts in spending.
During the entirety of this recovery (through Q3 2014),
there have not been consecutive quarters where U.S.
consumption spending grew at 3.0% or greater during the
entirety of this recovery. The most recent example of this
type of a pullback was the 4th
quarter of 2013 when 3.7%
growth was then followed with just 1.2% growth in the 1st
quarter of 2014.
Real consumer spending growth is expected to pick
up from the third quarter as growth for the 4th
quarter
of 2014 is expected to be 2.6%. It should be a slightly
improved holiday shopping season this year compared to
the disappointment of last year.
The up and down sawtooth pattern of consumer
spending growth should give way to a more stable
trajectory as the recovery continues. Continued
10. 10 U.S. Forecast | December 2014
U . S . F O R E C A S T
improvement in the labor market, repairs to household
balance sheets, and a greater willingness of banks to lend
should prove to be stabilizing forces to consumer spending,
putting it on a smoother path over the next several years.
Real consumption spending is forecasted to accelerate
through the end of our forecast from 2.2% in 2014, 2.6%
in 2015, 2.7% in 2016, and then to 2.8% in 2017, ten years
after the start of the Great Recession.
I N V E S T M E N T
Real nonresidential fixed investment spending grew
at 7.3% in 2012. In 2013 the pace of investment growth
slowed significantly under a rising wave of policy
uncertainty, and grew by just 3.0% for the year. The pace
of investment growth is expected to pick up in 2014 and
ease slightly in 2015 before accelerating in 2016-2017.
Investment growth is expected to be 5.9% in 2014, 4.0%
in 2015, and 4.4% in 2016. Rising interest rates do not
offset the boost to investment from abating uncertainty
and will not weigh too heavily on investment growth in
2017 as it accelerates to 5.9%.
Interest rates will remain historically low for at least
another year before the Federal Reserve begins the process
of tightening. The cost of borrowing—either explicitly
or the implicit or opportunity cost of using retained
earnings—is not the reason for lackluster investment
spending during this recovery when interest rates have
hovered at such low levels. Policy uncertainty, as we have
discussed on multiple occasions in previous U.S. Forecast
publications, is the real culprit in delayed investment
decisions as it obscures the horizon over which investments
are made.
In 2014, nonresidential investment spending will grow
5.9% before easing in 2015 to 4.0% and 4.4% in 2016 as
the Fed continues along the path of raising interest rates.
Investment growth will accelerate in 2017 to around 5.9%.
While interest rates will remain low over the next year,
they will be rising over the remainder of our forecast
horizon. With Quantitative Easing completed, we think
the Fed will begin slowly hiking the federal funds rate
in the fourth quarter, but longer run rates will begin to
rise earlier as expectations of higher short-term interest
rates in the future work their way through the yield curve
(expectations of higher short-term rates in the future cause
long-term rates to rise in the present). We expect the 10-
year Treasury yield to average 2.57% in 2014, 2.96% in
2015, 3.29% in 2016, and 3.80% in 2017.
Business spending on equipment and software will grow
at an annual average rate of 5.8% in 2014 through 2017.
Investment spending growth in computers and peripherals
will resume solid growth after contracting in 2013 and
2014. Spending on communications equipment should
expand at an average annual rate of 9.3% during 2014-
2017, while industrial equipment purchases average 7.4%
growth over the same time frame.
Investment in nonresidential structures experienced a
burst of activity in 2012 and expanded at a 13.0% clip.
Investment growth plunged year over year and contracted
0.5% in 2013. The roller coaster ride continues in 2014 and
2015 with growth jumping to 7.7% in 2014, then plunging
again to 0.6% in 2015. Investment in non-residential
structures will bounce back in 2016 and 2017 with growth
of 2.4% and 8.1% respectively.
Investment growth in transportation equipment
decelerated sharply in 2013 to 7.9%. This type of
investment will have an average growth rate of 2.0%
during the four-year stretch from 2014 through 2017,
and in that final year, growth will be less than 1.0%. In
the middle of this span, growth will be negative in 2015
and 2016. Investment in this sector is highly volatile due
to purchases of aircraft that cause extreme swings in
investment spending growth from quarter to quarter.
Residential fixed investment grew 12.0% in 2013.
Growth will average 7.1% through 2014-2017 with a
peak growth rate in 2016 of 10.1%. In the final year of
our forecast, 2017, real residential fixed investment will
be dampened somewhat by both higher mortgage rates
(expected to average 5.7% on a 30-year fixed mortgage
that year) and a balance between supply and demand in
the housing market that will diminish the rate of price
appreciation. Nonetheless, growth is expected to be 8.0%
in the final year of our forecast. In 2017, real residential
fixed investment will be just over $640 billion.
Housing prices continue to rise, but the rate of these
increases has slowed. Declining levels of investor
purchases are taking some wind out the housing market’s
sails. Housing finance must become more accessible to an
expanded pool of borrowers if the market is going to make
a smooth transition from investor-led purchases to more
traditional mortgage-financed consumer purchases.
Rising home prices and diminishing inventories sent the
signal to builders to get back to work. We expect housing
starts to continue to gradually accelerate over the next
11. Institute for Economic Competitiveness 11
U . S . F O R E C A S T
several years reaching more than 1.44 million in 2017.
That level represents an increase of nearly 520,000 starts
from 2013. Tight mortgage lending standards could, if not
redressed, alter the course of the recovery in the housing
sector.
G O V E R N M E N T S P E N D I N G
The unusual surge in federal government spending in
the third quarter of this year is a major outlier from the
general path that we expect federal government spending
to follow. That 9.9% growth will be the only quarter of
rising spending in a five-year span stretching from 2013
through 2017.
The 2014-2015 easing of sequester cuts sharply slowed
the rate at which government spending was contracting
from -5.7% in 2013 to -2.0% in 2014 and just -1.5% in
2015. Beyond 2015, federal government spending is
expected to continue to contract at an increasingly slower
rate. During 2014-2017 real federal government spending
is expected to contract at an average of 1.2%. Over that
same time horizon, state and local governments will
oversee spending growing at an average of 1.0%.
The combination of higher revenues from economic
growth, new taxes, and an assist from the Federal Reserve
are, along with lower government spending, working to
shrink the size of the annual budget deficit. The Fed is
holding more than $2.4 trillion in U.S. Treasury debt and
more than $1.7 trillion in mortgage backed securities. The
Fed turns most of the proceeds from holding that debt
right back to the U.S. Treasury.
The federal budget deficit fell to $680 billion in 2013.
This was the first time in four years that the annual deficit
did not exceed $1 trillion. We are forecasting that the
deficit will continue to decline in 2014, when it is expected
to be $483 billion.
There is no political will in Washington, D.C to
implement fiscal discipline or badly needed reform of
entitlements programs and the tax system.. Even the
relatively small spending cuts in the sequester quickly
became unpalatable to congress. As a result, we expect that
the budget deficit will only contract slightly in the next
couple years. In 2014 the budget deficit is expected to be
$483 billion, falling to $459 billion in 2016 before rising
again to $511 billion in 2017. However, if military action
is ramped up in Iraq and Syria – something President
Obama seems reluctant to do – these deficit numbers will
grow larger.
Although we are projecting deficits through 2017 that
are relatively smaller than the $1 trillion-plus deficits that
were the norm in 2009-2012, the additional debt added
to the national debt over the next four years will be more
than $1.9 trillion, thus pushing the national debt total over
$20 trillion.
A major risk associated with the persistent deficits and
high level of debt is if interest rates rise faster than we are
currently forecasting, this will result in a rapidly rising
burden of servicing this debt. The persistent low interest
rates on U.S. Treasury bonds have ameliorated the pain
of the record borrowing needed to finance federal budget
deficits in recent years. If the interest rate on our national
credit card goes up, the pain of this deficit financing could
become more acute, and consequences of our lack of fiscal
discipline will manifest themselves.
Currently, the national debt is over $18.0 trillion and
rising. This represents a debt of nearly $153,729 per
taxpayer and over $56,380 per citizen. Unfunded liabilities
of the U.S. are even more frightening. Social Security,
Medicare part D, and Medicare represent nearly $116
trillion in liabilities, and that boils down to more than
$988,619 per taxpayer.
N E T E X P O R T S
Net exports will become an increasing drag on real
GDP growth in the U.S. through the end of the forecast
horizon, 4th
quarter of 2017. Following a contraction of
9.2% in the first quarter of the year, real exports grew
by 10.0% in the second quarter of 2014. This helped to
dramatically lessen the impact of net exports on real GDP
growth in the second quarter. But imports grew by 11.3%,
thus the contribution of net exports to GDP growth
decreased growth by 0.34 percentage points.
In the 3rd
quarter, net exports became a positive
contributor to real GDP growth, adding 0.78 percentage
points to overall growth as real import growth swung
from 11.1% in the 2nd
quarter to -0.7%.
The net exports boost to GDP growth in the 3rd
quarter
should give way to a persistent drag on GDP growth
through the end of the forecast horizon. However, the
U.S. dollar has begun a streak of appreciation against our
trading partners that we are forecasting to last for the next
year.
Over time, a stronger dollar will boost imports and work
12. 12 U.S. Forecast | December 2014
U . S . F O R E C A S T
to decrease exports leading to a worsening of the trade
deficit. This will be exacerbated by stronger growth in U.S.
GDP while many of our trading partners are experiencing
slower, sometimes much slower, GDP growth. U.S. buyers
will thus have income to purchase more foreign goods
and services while foreign buyers will have relatively less
income to spend on our goods and services.
Overall, export growth continues through the end of our
2017 forecast period. However, it will slow in 2015 before
picking up again. Real export growth from 2014-2017 will
average just 3.1% while real import growth will average
4.2% over the same time frame.
Real net exports will average -$503.5 billion 2014-2017,
with the trade balance worsening in each successive year
on the back of that stronger dollar and a weaker global
demand for U.S. goods and services.
The four-year period of strengthening of the dollar
(2012-2015) is due to the relative strength of the U.S.
recovery and the eventual upward movement in U.S.
interest rates as the Federal Reserve begins to tighten
interest rates in late 2015. The Eurozone continues to
battle recession or near recession in many countries. Any
growth will remain paltry in the face of persistent fiscal
austerity, and the seemingly constant threat of a return to
a deflationary environment continues to fuel uncertainty
regarding the future of the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the
European Central Bank has been forced to be more
aggressive in its stance on policy and is teetering on the
brink of implementing quantitative easing policies as the
Fed did over the past several years.
The current account deficit will improve slightly until the
second quarter of 2015, at which point the appreciation
of the dollar that began in 2012 will begin to manifest
itself in a worsening of the current account in 2016-2017.
Current account balances will average -$384.8 billion
during 2014-2017, with a worsening of the deficit in 2016-
2017. In 2017 the current account deficit will be -$478.6,
wiping out nearly four years of improvements.
U N E M P L O Y M E N T
For most of the economic recovery the U.S. headline
unemployment rate (U-3 in the jargon of the Bureau of
Labor Statistics) has been a faulty gauge of how the labor
market and economy have been performing, so much so
that the Fed Reserve has shifted itself away from a heavy
focus on this statistic.
The national headline unemployment rate in November
held steady at 5.8%.
The November jobs report again showed stronger
payroll job growth with 321,000 new workers on business
payrolls, the third largest monthly gain in this recovery.
Average payroll gains for the first 11 months of 2014 were
241,000. Over the same period last year average gains
were 204,000.
The household survey in the jobs report (from which
unemployment rates are calculated) showed a different
picture than did the payroll survey of establishments.
According to the household survey, the number of
employed people increased by only 4,000 while the
number of unemployed jumped by 115,000.
The mixed message in recent jobs and labor market
reports again reinforces the need to look at more than a
single metric of how the labor market is performing and
why the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Labor Market
Spider Chart is one such approach of accomplishing this.
Given the complex and frustrating nature of this
recovery, the U.S. labor market simply cannot be
sufficiently assessed by a single metric such as the headline
unemployment rate (U-3) during this recovery. This is
particularly true because as of November 2014, the labor
force participation rate remains at its lowest point since
January 1978.
Recent estimates by the Economic Policy Institute of
the number of “missing workers ”—potential workers who,
as a result of a weak labor market are neither working nor
looking for work—is just under 5.8 million in the U.S.
If these workers were actively still looking for work, the
current headline unemployment rate (U-3) would be 9.2%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does produce
alternative measures of labor market weakness. The
broadest measure of unemployment, U-6, takes into
account discouraged workers as well as those who are
underemployed—working part-time but not by choice—
and workers who are marginally attached to the labor force
and have looked for work in the past 12 months but are
not currently looking, yet indicate a willingness to work.
U-6 remains distressingly high at 11.4% in November,
down just 1.7 points from the November 2013 level of
13.1%, and down 5.8 points from its peak of 17.2% in
April 2010. U-6 has been in double-digits for 78 straight
months.
13. U . S . F O R E C A S T C H A R T S
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 13
171615141312111009080706050403020100
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
30-Year Mortgage Rates and HousingStarts
(Mortgage rates - Left axis, %)
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
Housing Starts - Millions
171615141312111009080706050403020100
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
Automobile and Light Truck Sales
(Millions Vehicles)
Auto Sales
Light Truck Sales
171615141312111009080706050403020100
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
-50.0
-100.0
-150.0
-200.0
-250.0
Change in Real Business Inventories
(Billions of 2000 Dollars)
Change in Real Business Inventories
14. U . S . F O R E C A S T C H A R T S
14 U.S. Forecast | December 2014
171615141312111009080706050403020100
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
Consumer Prices
(% Change Year Ago)
Consumer Price Index
Core Consumer Price Index
171615141312111009080706050403020100
500.0
0.0
-500.0
-1000.0
-1500.0
Federal Budget Surplus
(Billions of Dollars)
Federal Budget Surplus
171615141312111009080706050403020100
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
Federal Funds Rate
(%)
Fed Funds Rate
15. U . S . F O R E C A S T C H A R T S
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 15
171615141312111009080706050403020100
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
Real GDP Growth and Federal Funds Rate
(%)
Quarterly Growth Rate Real GDP Fed Funds Rate
171615141312111009080706050403020100
115.0
110.0
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
80.0
Industrial Production
(2002=100)
Industrial Production
171615141312111009080706050403020100
2800.0
2600.0
2400.0
2200.0
2000.0
1800.0
1600.0
1400.0
1200.0
Private Fixed Nonresidential Investment
(Billions of Dollars)
Private Fixed Nonresidential Investment
16. U . S . F O R E C A S T C H A R T S
16 U.S. Forecast | December 2014
171615141312111009080706050403020100
18.0
17.0
16.0
15.0
14.0
13.0
12.0
11.0
Manufacturing Employment
(Millions)
Manufacturing Employment
171615141312111009080706050403020100
3000.0
2500.0
2000.0
1500.0
1000.0
500.0
Money Supply
(Annual Growth Rate %)
Annual Growth Rate of M1
171615141312111009080706050403020100
145.0
140.0
135.0
130.0
125.0
Total NonfarmPayroll Employment
(Millions)
Total NonfarmEmployment
17. U . S . F O R E C A S T C H A R T S
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 17
171615141312111009080706050403020100
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Oil and Consumer Confidence
Oil ($ Per Barrel) - Left Axis
Price of Oil WTI Consumer Sentiment
171615141312111009080706050403020100
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
Real Disposable Income and Consumption
(% Change Year Ago)
Real Disposable Income Consumption
171615141312111009080706050403020100
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400 1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate
Trade Balance (Billions $) Left axis
U.S. Dollar RealExchange Rate (2000=1.0) Right axis
18. U . S . F O R E C A S T C H A R T S
18 U.S. Forecast | December 2014
171615141312111009080706050403020100
500.0
0.0
-500.0
-1000.0
-1500.0
Twin Deficits
(Billions of Dollars)
U.S. Federal Budget Surplus
Current Account
171615141312111009080706050403020100
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Civilian Unemployment Rate
(%)
Unemployment Rate
171615141312111009080706050403020100
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Yield Curve
(%)
1-Year T-Bill Yield
5 Year Treasury Bond Yield
30 year Treasury Bond Yield
32. U . S . F O R E C A S T TA B L E S
32 U.S. Forecast | December 2014
Table 15. Government Receipts and Expenditures
Table 15. Government Receipts and Expenditures
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Receipts 2660.8 2503.7 2227.8 2391.8 2519.5 2684.1 3113.0 3299.0 3450.7 3583.0 3685.2
Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts 1164.4 1101.7 857.2 893.8 1076.6 1149.0 1286.8 1373.6 1489.9 1570.8 1627.7
Corp. Profits Tax Accruals 362.8 233.6 200.4 298.7 299.4 369.5 384.9 490.3 492.4 480.0 432.5
Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals 94.6 94.0 91.4 96.8 108.6 115.0 120.9 132.9 135.7 146.1 161.3
Contributions for Social Insurance 947.3 974.4 950.8 970.9 904.0 938.1 1092.3 1154.1 1213.4 1276.4 1349.0
Expenditures 2926.4 3137.7 3476.6 3720.5 3763.7 3763.2 3762.1 3894.4 4044.2 4180.5 4335.0
Purchases Goods & Services 1049.8 1155.6 1217.7 1303.9 1303.5 1291.4 1231.5 1219.1 1219.1 1223.8 1234.2
National Defense 678.7 754.1 788.3 832.8 837.0 818.0 769.9 761.8 758.3 759.7 766.1
Other 371.1 401.5 429.4 471.1 466.5 473.4 461.6 457.4 460.7 464.0 468.2
Transfer Payments 1672.4 1820.3 2132.4 2281.7 2272.4 2278.3 2322.0 2421.2 2553.3 2675.6 2793.7
To Persons 1258.9 1391.9 1608.9 1710.1 1727.3 1767.0 1806.8 1862.6 1938.9 2025.3 2116.4
To Foreigners 41.3 41.9 49.4 49.7 55.6 48.8 46.4 36.7 53.0 53.8 55.0
Grants in Aid to State & Local Gov't 359.0 371.0 458.1 505.3 472.5 444.4 450.0 502.6 541.4 576.0 601.2
Net Interest 386.1 368.4 330.8 351.0 398.0 401.5 393.0 422.8 440.4 444.7 467.6
Subsidies less Surplus of Gov't Entities 45.4 48.7 56.2 57.4 66.7 66.7 75.0 77.0 78.3 76.8 74.7
Surplus (+) or Deficit (-) -265.6 -634.0 -1248.8 -1328.7 -1244.2 -1079.1 -649.1 -595.3 -593.5 -597.5 -649.9
Receipts 1900.6 1909.1 1919.2 1998.5 2030.5 2061.3 2125.6 2204.0 2306.2 2422.2 2535.6
Personal Tax/Nontax Receipts 1321.3 1328.9 1268.1 1305.7 1368.3 1424.8 1471.8 1490.7 1542.4 1609.0 1681.9
Corporate Profits 323.5 333.5 287.8 297.6 324.1 354.7 375.0 368.0 386.7 404.9 425.3
Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals 57.9 47.4 45.6 47.7 50.2 53.2 55.3 56.8 58.4 57.6 56.0
Contributions for Social Insurance 18.9 18.7 18.6 18.2 18.2 17.7 17.7 17.7 18.3 19.1 20.0
Federal Grants-In-Aid 359.0 371.0 458.1 505.3 472.5 444.4 450.0 502.6 541.4 576.0 601.2
Expenditures 1973.33 2074.15 2191.15 2235.85 2246.40 2293.78 2350.75 2442.43 2536.93 2614.21 2711.5
Purchases Goods & Services 1752.2 1847.6 1871.4 1870.2 1865.3 1877.8 1912.4 1958.3 2020.5 2085.0 2162.0
Transfer Payments 460.9 477.8 566.1 612.0 582.2 556.3 570.8 628.9 676.3 721.5 757.7
Interest Received 17.3 36.0 114.3 123.0 125.9 143.7 137.0 131.8 128.3 124.9 124.0
Net Subsidies 25.6 25.0 22.8 21.4 17.9 16.6 14.8 14.9 14.4 13.6 12.8
Dividends Received 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3
Surplus (+) or Deficit (-) -72.7 -165.1 -271.9 -237.3 -215.9 -232.6 -225.2 -238.4 -230.7 -192.0 -175.9
State and Local Government Receipts and Expenditures
Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures
ForecastHistory
33. U . S . F O R E C A S T TA B L E S
Institute for Economic Competitiveness 33
Table 16. U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services
Table 16. U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Exports Goods & Services -718.6 -723.1 -395.5 -512.7 -580.0 -568.3 -508.2 -508.2 -426.1 -461.7 -530.5
Current Account -718.6 -686.6 -380.8 -443.9 -459.3 -460.8 -400.3 -381.1 -312.7 -366.8 -478.6
Exports -Goods & Services 1664.6 1841.9 1587.7 1852.3 2106.4 2194.2 2262.2 2346.2 2407.1 2502.9 2639.4
Merchandise Balance -821.2 -832.5 -509.7 -648.7 -740.6 -742.1 -701.7 -714.4 -651.6 -683.6 -750.6
Food, Feed & Beverage 84.26 108.35 93.91 107.72 126.25 132.90 136.18 140.13 135.26 137.07 143.0
Industrial Supplies Excl Petroleum 316.3 386.9 293.5 388.6 485.3 482.4 492.1 511.3 529.5 576.7 621.5
Motor Vehicles & Parts 121.3 121.5 81.7 112.0 133.0 146.1 152.6 160.8 170.4 182.1 196.5
Capital Goods, Excl. MVP 433.0 457.7 391.5 447.8 494.2 527.5 534.6 548.9 546.9 547.1 568.6
Computer Equipment 45.5 43.9 37.7 43.8 48.5 49.3 48.1 49.2 49.2 53.7 60.6
Other 314.5 339.8 279.0 332.1 365.4 383.9 381.5 388.6 386.1 381.2 398.4
Consumer Goods, Excl. MVP 145.9 161.2 149.3 164.9 174.7 181.0 188.4 199.8 204.9 200.3 199.8
Other Consumer 65.7 63.3 55.2 58.6 53.4 57.2 59.1 62.6 61.6 61.9 64.4
Services 498.2 543.1 522.6 572.7 639.5 667.0 699.4 722.6 758.5 797.8 845.5
Imports -Goods & Services 2383.2 2565.0 1983.2 2365.0 2686.4 2762.5 2770.4 2854.4 2833.2 2964.5 3169.9
Merchandise 2003.8 2149.4 1590.3 1949.8 2244.7 2306.0 2302.3 2365.7 2323.5 2412.2 2567.9
Food, Feed & Beverage 83.0 90.4 82.9 92.5 108.3 111.1 116.0 125.3 123.3 126.7 130.9
Petroleum & Products 346.7 476.1 267.7 353.6 462.1 434.3 387.6 350.8 292.9 275.9 274.5
Industrial Supplies Excl Petroleum 297.9 318.7 196.6 249.4 292.7 288.9 291.2 310.3 309.9 332.3 352.7
Motor Vehicles & Parts 258.5 233.2 159.2 225.6 255.2 298.5 309.6 326.2 316.1 323.1 345.0
Capital Goods, Excl. MVP 449.1 458.7 374.1 450.4 513.4 551.8 557.8 594.0 606.6 642.7 696.2
Computer Equipment 105.5 101.2 94.2 117.3 119.7 122.3 121.2 119.3 121.8 125.7 130.9
Other 309.2 322.0 249.2 301.9 358.2 389.4 389.7 421.1 434.9 467.7 516.3
Consumer Goods, Excl. MVP 479.8 485.7 429.9 485.1 515.9 518.8 533.9 551.4 562.9 582.0 621.0
Other Consumer 88.8 86.5 80.0 93.1 97.1 102.6 106.1 107.7 111.8 129.5 147.5
Services 379.4 415.6 392.9 415.2 441.6 456.4 468.1 488.7 509.7 552.3 602.0
Net Exports Goods & Services -712.6 -557.8 -395.4 -458.8 -459.4 -452.5 -420.5 -436.2 -454.0 -529.5 -594.4
Exports G & S 1646.4 1740.8 1587.7 1776.6 1898.3 1960.1 2019.8 2085.4 2132.1 2191.9 2282.0
Imports G & S 2359.0 2298.6 1983.2 2235.4 2357.7 2412.6 2440.3 2521.6 2586.0 2721.4 2876.3
Exports G & S 14.4 0.0 4.1 15.3 8.7 3.6 4.9 2.3 2.8 4.6 5.7
Imports G & S 8.9 -1.8 0.9 15.0 10.9 0.3 1.5 1.5 2.2 5.2 7.2
Real Exports G & S 9.9 -2.0 3.0 10.1 4.2 2.4 5.1 2.1 1.7 3.4 4.4
Real Imports G & S 0.9 -5.7 -3.6 12.2 3.5 0.4 2.5 3.4 3.7 5.5 5.4
Forecast
Billions of Dollars
Billions 2005 Dollars
Exports & Imports % Change
History
Billions of Dollars
34. The UCF College of Business Administration
would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for
his generous gift to the Institute for Economic
Competitiveness. His support enables the
Institute to publish this forecast and will help
fund future activities and research. Charron
graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance.
He is president of Real Property Specialists,
Inc., located in Orlando, Florida.
Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a full-
service brokerage company that has built a reputation of
providing highly personalized service while being respon-
sive and flexible to its clients' individual needs.They offer
a range of commercial real estate services in the Central
Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development,
property management and tenant representation.
Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of
excellence in client service by providing these key advan-
tages over the competition:
Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision
maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to
your needs.
Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-
members who are committed to the success of our clients.
We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated,
professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfort-
able and prosperous relationships with our clients.
Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our cli-
ent is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other
than the client. No company policy interferes with our
ability to serve the individual needs of each client.
Experience.The staff at Real Property Specialists is
highly qualified, with most associates having more than a
decade of experience in the industry. Our personal port-
folio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of
what is important when leasing, managing or selling
a property.
AppreciationIn
Appraisers Brokers Consultants
6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835
407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com
35. S E A N M . S N A I T H , P H . D .
We would like to recognize the following organizations
for their support of the Institute for Economic
Competitiveness:
36. U N I V E R S I T Y O F C E N T R A L F L O R I D A
C o l l e g e o f B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n
I n s t i t u t e f o r E c o n o m i c C o m p e t i t i v e n e s s
P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6
P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3 FA X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4 w w w . i e c . u c f . e d u