Machine learning is becoming widely used to automate decision making. While machine learning seems complex, it involves finding patterns in data that can be used to make useful predictions. The document discusses how factors like increased data availability, faster computation, and easier tools have led to the rise of machine learning applications. It also notes common pitfalls in early machine learning adoption like overhyping results and failing to develop a clear strategy. Overall machine learning is transforming industries by enabling cheaper and more data-driven decisions at scale.

1. 1st edition | July 8-11, 2019

2. BigML, Inc #DutchMLSchool
Machine Learning: Why Now?
A Pathway to Reliable Decision Engineering
Atakan Cetinsoy
VP - Predictive Applications, BigML
2

3. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante3
What is Machine Learning?

4. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Machine Learning in a Nutshell
4
Finding patterns in data,
that can be used to make useful inferences
Predictive ModelsID COUNTRY CITY
DAYS SINCE
LAST PURCHASE
PAGE
VIEWS
LTV
WILL PURCHASE
TODAY?
xyz US SEA 5 22 1448 Yes
abc US PBI 8 9 2330 No
def US CLT 20 2 22296 Yes
nnx US MIA 4 19 32342 Yes
sbd US ANC 1 21 1144 Yes
fjm US MSP 5 8 1589 No
cft US MSP 6 7 1299 No
amt US CLT 14 2 1250 Yes
AA US DFW 1 13 1464 No
vgg US ATL 3 15 17471 Yes
4

5. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Do You Need Machine Learning?
5
HOW MANY
VARIABLES?
> 3
HOW MANY
METRICS?
> 3
YOU WANT
MACHINE
LEARNING
YOU WANT
MACHINE
LEARNING

6. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
The Machine Learning Paradigm Shift
66
COMPLEXITYOFTASKS
TIME20th century 21st century
-
+
COMPLEXITYOFTASKS
TIME20th century 21st century
-
+

7. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Traditional Programming
77
• Business rules, heuristics sourced from tribal knowledge are commonplace
approaches to determine various courses of action in a typical workflow.

8. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Machine Learning-ready Data
88
ID COUNTRY CITY DAYS SINCE
LAST PURCHASE
PAGE
VIEWS
LTV PURCHASE
TODAY?
xyz US SEA 5 22 1448 Yes
abc US PBI 8 9 2330 No
def US CLT 20 2 22296 Yes
nnx US MIA 4 19 32342 Yes
sbd US ANC 1 21 1144 Yes
fjm US MSP 5 8 1589 No
cft US MSP 6 7 1299 No
amt US CLT 14 2 1250 Yes
AA US DFW 1 13 1464 No
vgg US ATL 3 15 17471 Yes

9. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
The Machine Learning Workflow
99
Instances
Data
New Instance
Prediction Confidence
%
ML Algorithm
LEARNING OR TRAINING
Evaluation
Predictive Model
SCORING OR PREDICTING

10. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Programming with Machine Learning
• Ultimately, Machine Learning is all about transforming data into models that
can be used to automate decision making.
1010
ID COUNTRY CITY
DAYS SINCE
LAST PURCHASE
PAGE
VIEWS
LTV
PURCHASE
TODAY?
xyz US SEA 5 22 1448 Yes
abc US PBI 8 9 2330 No
def US CLT 20 2 22296 Yes
nnx US MIA 4 19 32342 Yes
sbd US ANC 1 21 1144 Yes
fjm US MSP 5 8 1589 No
cft US MSP 6 7 1299 No
amt US CLT 14 2 1250 Yes
AA US DFW 1 13 1464 No
vgg US ATL 3 15 17471 Yes

11. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Machine Learning Output — Predictions
BIGGER DISCOUNT TO BEST CUSTOMERS
1111

12. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante12
ML Early Adopters

13. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Machine Learning — Why Now?
13
Maturity of ML
Techniques
Cost of
Computation
Abundance
of Data
Speed of
Computation
Easier Tools

14. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Early Adopters — Google
14
• "Machine learning is a core, transformative way
by which we’re re-thinking how we’re doing
everything. We are thoughtfully applying it across
all our products, be it search, ads, YouTube, or
Play. And we're in early days, but you will see us
— in a systematic way — apply machine learning
in all these areas."
— Sundar Pichai, CEO

15. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Early Adopters — Amazon
15
“Machine learning is a horizontal enabling layer. It will
empower and improve every business, every government
organization, every philanthropy — basically there’s no
institution in the world that cannot be improved with
machine learning.”
“I would say, a lot of the value that we’re getting from
machine learning is actually happening beneath the
surface. It is things like improved search results. Improved
product recommendations for customers. Improved
forecasting for inventory management. Literally hundreds
of other things beneath the surface."
https://www.economist.com/business/2019/04/13/amazons-empire-rests-on-its-low-key-approach-to-ai
— Jeff Bezos, CEO

16. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Industry Example — Banking
1616
CLASSIFICATION
REGRESSION
TIME SERIES FORECASTING
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
ANOMALY DETECTION
ASSOCIATION DISCOVERY
Will this client default?
How much cash will this ATM need?
What will be the funds in this deposit account in 3 months?
Which products behave similarly?
Is this transaction fraudulent?
Which products will the client buy together?

17. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Machine Learning tools are
extremely complex
Machine Learning is intrinsically
complicated
17
Most businesses FAIL at Machine Learning :(
is going to revolutionize every industry and every organization BUT...
Machine Learning

18. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante18
Machine Learning False Starts

19. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
The AI Misinformation Epidemic
19

20. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Got ML Strategy?
20
• Imitation does NOT
a strategy make!
— Simon Wardley, Business Strategy Guru
SOURCE: https://blog.gardeviance.org/2013/01/the-importance-of-maps.html

21. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
The AI FoMo
21

22. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Overpromised, Underdelivered
22

23. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
The Big Data Craze
• Unlike “Big Data”, Machine Learning is here to stay.
23

24. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Hiring Microwave Engineers
24
SOURCE: https://hackernoon.com/why-businesses-fail-at-machine-learning-fbff41c4d5db

25. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Ignoring the Reality of a ML Application
25
Data
TransformationsFeature
Engineering
Data
Collection
Evaluation
& Retraining
Unseen
SeenSelf-Driving Cars?

26. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Building a Machine Learning Product
26
Reality
https://medium.com/thelaunchpad/the-ml-surprise-f54706361a6c
Expectation
10.50 0.25 0.75
SOURCE: https://medium.com/thelaunchpad/the-ml-surprise-f54706361a6c

27. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Overhyped or Underrated?
27

28. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Hindsight is 20/20
28
First Flight First Commercial Jet Flight
< 50 years
1903 1952

29. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante29
Machine Learning: Take II

30. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
We Got This!
30
Taking a step back to see the big picture…
…and charging ahead with a better plan!

31. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
The Need for Data-driven Decisions
31
• Human intuition is poor
• Human judgement is biased
• Human reasoning is causal, not
statistical
• These shortcomings are further
compounded in complex organizations!
“ We [humans] are narrow thinkers, we are noisy
thinkers, and it is very easy to improve upon us. I do
not think that there is very much that we can do that
computers will not eventually learn to do. ”
— Prof. Daniel Kahneman, Behavioral Economist
Nobel Laureate, 2002

32. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
The Need for Data-driven Decisions
32
•These cognitive biases and the
associated adverse effects are
further compounded within
workgroups across complex
organizations!
Nobel Laureate, 2002

33. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
The Economics of Machine Learning
33

34. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Cheap Changes Everything
34
The Microprocessor Revolution
Cheap Arithmetics
The Internet Revolution
Cheap Communications
((Email Mutimedia Social Mobile))
1980/90s —
1990/2000s —
+ Fast
+ Error-free/Better
Search
Distribution
=>
=>

35. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
The Economics of Machine Learning
• As the unit cost of predictions go down, many
facets of decision making will be automated.
35
The Machine Learning Revolution
Cheap Predictions
2010s —
+ Fast (i.e., milliseconds)
+ Better: Quantifiable/Near
Human-level Error Rates
=>

36. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Deconstructing Business Workflows
36
Workflow ABC
Task #1 Task #2 Task #3 Task #4
Decisions
Job #1 Job #2 Job #3
Task #5
Decisions

37. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Anatomy of a Task
• Redesigning tasks with fewer human predictions, more cheap predictions…
37
Input
Data
SOURCE: http://martin.zinkevich.org/rules_of_ml/rules_of_ml.pdf
Judgment
Prediction Action Outcome
Feedback
Data
}
Training
Data
Human
Expert
Model

38. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Decision Automation Options
BIGGER DISCOUNT TO BEST CUSTOMERS
3838
Low
Medium
BUSINESS RISK
High
High
MODEL COMPETENCE
•As the amount of data goes up, the importance of human judgment should go down.
MANUAL AUGMENT
AUGMENT AUTOMATE

39. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Machine Learning Adoption Phases
3939
PROGRAMMATIC ML ACCESSPOINT & CLICK ACCESS AUTOMATED ML WORKFLOWS
FIRST USER
WITHIN
A SINGLE
DEPARTMENT
MULTIPLE USERS/
USE CASES IN ONE
DEPARTMENT
MULTIPLE
USERS ACROSS
MULTIPLE
DEPARTMENTS
EVERYONE IN THE
ORGANIZATION
ML Automation
MLAdoption
PREDICTIVE APP
BIGML
DASHBOARD
BIGML
API WHIZZML

40. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Applied Machine Learning Best Practices
40
SOURCE: http://martin.zinkevich.org/rules_of_ml/rules_of_ml.pdf
SOURCE: https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/
research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/43146.pdf

41. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Decision Engineering — A New Discipline
➡ Consistently improve the quality of decisions
being made
➡ Speed up decision making
➡ Align organizational resources more effectively
to adapt to changes in decisions
➡ Lower the risk associated with decisions
41
• Decision [Intelligence] Engineering (aka data-driven
decision making) is mainly about using data to inform
organizational decisions at scale.
• Can we design a structured approach to complex
decision making under uncertainty by unifying
social sciences, engineering best practices and
Machine Learning — even for non-technical decision
makers?

42. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Machine Learning Accessibility
42
SOURCE: https://hbr.org/2019/06/when-ai-becomes-an-everyday-technology
“ After years of hype around mysterious
neural networks and the PhD researchers
who design them, we’re entering an age in
which just about anyone can leverage the
power of intelligent algorithms to solve the
problems that matter to them. Ironically,
although breakthroughs get the headlines,
it’s accessibility that really changes the world.
That’s why, after such an eventful decade, a
lack of hype around machine learning may
be the most exciting development yet.”
— Andrew Moore, Google

43. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante43
Conclusion

44. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante
Takeaways
44
• Machine Learning is the steam engine of the XXI.
century.
• When applied methodically, it helps solve complex
problems at human-level performance.
• When applied systematically, it can dramatically
improve the performance of an organization (regardless
of sizes or industry).

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