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Water Futures:
Building Capacities for Scenario-Based Planning
David A. Wiberg
8 June, 2016
Towards Sustainable Food Syste...
Half our planet’s population are water
insecure… uncertain futures
Absent or unreliable WSS Food security and Irrigation
T...
Water: Global Challenges
Water Scarcity
• In many areas, withdrawals exceed local renewable
water resources, leading to gr...
Population Explosion Continues
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Population...
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Urban Population Share (%)
SSP1 (Asia)
SSP2 (Asia)
SSP3 (As...
Increasing Demands, Increasing Challenges
• Domestic water withdrawals triple
• Industrial water withdrawals more
than dou...
Multi-model Assessment
Models Institution
HiGW-MAT IIASA, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES, Japan)
LISFL...
[yr]
2095
2031
2017
2046 2055
2066
2053 2081
2006
2028
2058
2044
2027
2056
2032 No
2036
2071
2024
2036 2026 2027
No
No
209...
Water Security: Hydro-Economic Conditions
HE–2
Water Secure, Rich
HE–1
Water Secure, Poor
HE–3
Water Stress, Rich
HE–4
Wat...
Water: Management Challenges
• Water management must intensify.
• Managing the water sector alone is no longer enough
– Wa...
Water: Management Challenges
Water a priority?
• There is no global organization for management and
standard-setting, like...
Domestic water demand Industrial water demand
2050 2050
SSP2
[km3/yr]
[km3/yr]
[km3/yr][km3/yr]
Increasing uncertainty
Decreasing knowledge
Median rainfall and standard deviation USA - SSA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0...
14/6
Yield gap ratios comparing actual crop production of year 2000 with potentials
achievable in current cultivated land ...
IWMI’s vision - A water-secure world
IWMI’s mission - To provide evidence-based solutions to
sustainably manage water and ...
 There are more than 200 SDG indicators being discussed for countries to monitor.
 In areas where challenges are greates...
Products
• Trends in water uses at basin/sub-basin scale
(locations and times of use, quality required, technology used, d...
Indicators, trends, and scenarios
• Full, spatial accounts of water supply and
demand (withdrawal and consumption)
by quan...
http://wateraccounting.org/index.html
Open Source Weather Stations:
Innovative solutions to Water Management problems
Soumya Balasubramanya, Yann Chemin, Lahiru...
Options Analysis
• Options Database
– Benefits, costs, potentials, constraints
• Impact Evaluations
• Best practices
Yield...
Climate, Land, Energy, Water Tradeoffs
Transforming Mauritius sugar-
processing plants to produce
second-generation ethano...
• Web-based information systems and
options analysis
– GW solutions
– Rural-urban linkages
– Sustainable irrigation
• Hydr...
Fulfilling IWMI’s Roles
A think tank
by improving IWMI’s flexibility to rapidly respond with science-based analysis
of cur...
Areas of EC/IWMI Cooperation
Methods for implementing EU commitments
• Climate change policy (mitigation and adaptation)
•...
Soumya Balasubramanya
Aditya Sood Maksud Bekchanov
Yann Chemin
Madar Samad
IWMI-HQ
Luna Bharati
IWMI-Nepal
Lisa-Maria Rebe...
Sub-themes
• Indicators, trends, and scenarios
(locations and times of use, quality required, technology used, development...
increase (°C)
mean water temperature
van Vliet M, Kabat P, et al (2013), Global Environ. Change
B1 (2071-2100) A2 (2071-21...
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gm3
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Baseline
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas wCCS
Gas woCCS
O...
Storage-Yield Curves With and Without Evaporation
0
20
40
60
80
0 50 100
0
500
1000
0 200 400 600
0
50
100
150
200
0 100 2...
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Water Futures: Building Capacities for Scenario-Based Planning

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Presented by IWMI's David Wiberg (Theme Leader – Water Futures) to a group of European Union (EU) delegations in Asia at a discussion on 'Using research on agriculture climate and water to support sustainable food systems', held at IWMI Headquarters in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on June 8, 2016.

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Water Futures: Building Capacities for Scenario-Based Planning

  1. 1. Water Futures: Building Capacities for Scenario-Based Planning David A. Wiberg 8 June, 2016 Towards Sustainable Food Systems Pelawatte, Sri Lanka
  2. 2. Half our planet’s population are water insecure… uncertain futures Absent or unreliable WSS Food security and Irrigation The impacts of unmitigated variability including floods & droughts Degraded water environments Photo: Pablo Tosco/Oxfam (Flickr CC) Photo: Felix Antonio / IWMI Photos: Neil Palmer / IWMI Photo: Hamish John Appelby / IWMI
  3. 3. Water: Global Challenges Water Scarcity • In many areas, withdrawals exceed local renewable water resources, leading to groundwater mining, land subsidence, saltwater intrusion, water transfers.
  4. 4. Population Explosion Continues 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Population (millions) SSP1 (Asia) SSP2 (Asia) SSP3 (Asia) SSP4 (Asia) SSP5 (Asia) SSP1 (ROW) SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 • 25% more people by 2050 • Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century (FAO & UN-Water) Photo: Hamish John Appelby / IWMI
  5. 5. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Urban Population Share (%) SSP1 (Asia) SSP2 (Asia) SSP3 (Asia) SSP4 (Asia) SSP5 (Asia) SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Income (GDP/cap) SSP1 (Asia) SSP2 (Asia) SSP3 (Asia) SSP4 (Asia) SSP5 (Asia) SSP1 (ROW) SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 • Water use grows with income. • GDP/capita rises everywhere, while GDP in China could start to decrease in the latter half of the century. Photo: Neil Palmer / IWMI
  6. 6. Increasing Demands, Increasing Challenges • Domestic water withdrawals triple • Industrial water withdrawals more than double. • Agricultural water withdrawals increase.
  7. 7. Multi-model Assessment Models Institution HiGW-MAT IIASA, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES, Japan) LISFLOOD IIASA, JRC VIC IIASA, Wageningen University (The Netherlands), Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (Norway); University of Washington/Princeton University (USA) WaterGAP Kassel University (Germany), Frankfurt University (Germany); PCR-GLOBWB Utrecht University (The Netherlands) LPJmL Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany) and Wageningen University (The Netherlands) WBM CUNY (USA); ISI-MIP Schew et al. (2013) Relative change in annual discharge at 2 °C compared with present day, under RCP8.5. Approach Dry areas get drier, wet areas wetter, but little aggregate change. • Most Asia-Pacific regions experience increasing water availability, except Central and Western Asia. However: • Per capita water resources decline in much of Asia, severely in South Asia (up to -31%) and the Pacific (up to -51%) • Pakistan, Bangladesh, Azerbaijan, and Timor-Leste are all projected to have less than 10 cubic meters of water per person per day by the 2050s.
  8. 8. [yr] 2095 2031 2017 2046 2055 2066 2053 2081 2006 2028 2058 2044 2027 2056 2032 No 2036 2071 2024 2036 2026 2027 No No 2095 2047 How long do we have time to prepare for the change? When will drought shift into the unprecedented phase? Historically experienced range Historical period Time series of regional mean of DDyr RCP8.5 (5 GCMs) 2100 Never return!! Satoh Y, et. al. (2015)
  9. 9. Water Security: Hydro-Economic Conditions HE–2 Water Secure, Rich HE–1 Water Secure, Poor HE–3 Water Stress, Rich HE–4 Water Stress, Poor Economic-institutionalcapacity Hydro-climatic complexity (resources/cap, withdrawals/resources, variability, dependency) low high lowhigh Currently in HE-4: • 44% population, 20% of GDP • 65% of Asia’s population By 2050 in HE-3 and HE-4: • 60% population, 60% GDP • > 80% of Asia’s population and GDP Source: Water Futures and Solutions Initiative
  10. 10. Water: Management Challenges • Water management must intensify. • Managing the water sector alone is no longer enough – Water integrates across scales and sectors, which all use and influence increasingly scarce water resources. • Water management is risk based, but how does risk change? – Large uncertainties • Data • Scenarios • Models – No stationarity • More robust, flexible solutions required
  11. 11. Water: Management Challenges Water a priority? • There is no global organization for management and standard-setting, like with the oceans, or the IPCC for climate. • 35-80% of water-related projects are failing. • We have very little knowledge or data in the areas where the problems are greatest and do not know how to manage them. • Water monitoring systems have been degrading globally, so that we have less information than we did in the past • Water management is done separately by many sectors, but is not always coherent/compatible • Funding for water projects is difficult to obtain.
  12. 12. Domestic water demand Industrial water demand 2050 2050 SSP2 [km3/yr] [km3/yr] [km3/yr][km3/yr]
  13. 13. Increasing uncertainty Decreasing knowledge Median rainfall and standard deviation USA - SSA 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 20 40 60 80 100 median rainfall % standarddeviation SSA USA
  14. 14. 14/6 Yield gap ratios comparing actual crop production of year 2000 with potentials achievable in current cultivated land with advanced farming. Source: GAEZ2012. Yield Gaps
  15. 15. IWMI’s vision - A water-secure world IWMI’s mission - To provide evidence-based solutions to sustainably manage water and land resources for food security, people’s livelihoods and the environment Water Futures vision - An IWMI decision support toolkit that helps planners, managers and stakeholders understand and assess possible futures and sets of solutions. Mission - To identify contextually-appropriate pathways to achieving sustainable water security.
  16. 16.  There are more than 200 SDG indicators being discussed for countries to monitor.  In areas where challenges are greatest, water data, information, and capacity are usually weakest.  Global data and models are not yet well enough resolved, or sufficient, to be used to assess the impacts, tradeoffs, benefits, costs and synergies among local options within a river basin.  To be effective and sustainable, intervention options must fit both the local biophysical and socio-economic context and development priorities. What works in one area may not be effective in another.  There are a multitude of options for development and enhancing resource security. Decision makers can be confused by differing opinions and advice on possible solution options, which can delay decisions.  Multiple institutions manage water and related resources and must be brought together to ensure that their projects work together synergistically.  Uncertainty: The future is uncertain. Data and models are uncertain, and tradeoffs among some options are not fully understood. IWMI’s niche Context specific futures and solution sets
  17. 17. Products • Trends in water uses at basin/sub-basin scale (locations and times of use, quality required, technology used, developments over time) • Policy/Institutional/Legal mapping (which organizations are responsible for which decisions, monitoring, enforcement, impacts of change) • Options Analysis and Database (benefits, costs, impacts, synergies, tradeoffs) • Priorities/Values Mapping (what are the priority options for stakeholders in the regions) • Decision Support Tools (preferably simplified online tools for rapid visualization of the impacts of various options with stakeholders and decision makers. e.g. AQUADUCT Flood Analyzer, IIASA/FAO GAEZ, IIASA Energy Multi- Criteria Analysis tool, etc.) • Papers, reports, policy briefs on best practices, and training in scenario based options analysis and planning.
  18. 18. Indicators, trends, and scenarios • Full, spatial accounts of water supply and demand (withdrawal and consumption) by quantity and quality and source. – groundwater data?, use, efficiencies and technologies? • Potentials and gaps • Institutional mapping • Trend analysis and scenario construction
  19. 19. http://wateraccounting.org/index.html
  20. 20. Open Source Weather Stations: Innovative solutions to Water Management problems Soumya Balasubramanya, Yann Chemin, Lahiru Wijesinghe, Farah Ahmed, Mohamed Aheeyar, David Wiberg
  21. 21. Options Analysis • Options Database – Benefits, costs, potentials, constraints • Impact Evaluations • Best practices Yield gap ratios. Source: GAEZ2012. Boston Water Conservation
  22. 22. Climate, Land, Energy, Water Tradeoffs Transforming Mauritius sugar- processing plants to produce second-generation ethanol is a positive, improving trade balances, energy security and reducing emissions, while maintaining land productivity. But, if rainfall is reduced as under the worst climate scenario, energy costs and emissions would increase to deliver the required water to all uses. Integrated systems analysis across scales and sectors is needed to assess these synergies and tradeoffs and develop innovative solutions that are effective and consistent Source: Howells et al (2013), Nature Climate Change
  23. 23. • Web-based information systems and options analysis – GW solutions – Rural-urban linkages – Sustainable irrigation • Hydro-economic modeling and Decision Support – Systematic, network analysis – Modular – Multi-objective optimization – Water valuation, pricing, subsidies Decision Support Systems
  24. 24. Fulfilling IWMI’s Roles A think tank by improving IWMI’s flexibility to rapidly respond with science-based analysis of current issues, and take advantage of planning insights gained from options analysis A provider of science based products and tools examining options, tradeoffs and synergies among options and developing systems frameworks across them. A facilitator of learning, strengthening capacity and achieving uptake of research findings. by enhancing communication, information and knowledge sharing, and providing tools, frameworks and training.
  25. 25. Areas of EC/IWMI Cooperation Methods for implementing EU commitments • Climate change policy (mitigation and adaptation) • Better understanding of Climate Change impacts/loss/damage at local levels • Capacity-building around intervention options (what works where) SDGs • How to we achieve SDGs at the local/river-basin scale taking into account local priorities and values • What indicators are most important to monitor and provide the greatest coverage of the SDGs Transparency • Information and knowledge transfer across scales. • Options databases and typology • Capacity-building and training
  26. 26. Soumya Balasubramanya Aditya Sood Maksud Bekchanov Yann Chemin Madar Samad IWMI-HQ Luna Bharati IWMI-Nepal Lisa-Maria Rebelo IWMI-Laos Touleelor Sotoukee Krishna Kakumanu Archisman MitraMarie-Charlotte Buisson IWMI-India Pamela Katic Bedru Balana Yoro Sidibe IWMI-Ghana Jonathan Lautze Greenwell MatchayaSibusiso Nhlengethwa Charles Nhemachena IWMI-South Africa Water Futures Team Robyn Johnston Myanmar Ted Horbulyk Ambika Khadka
  27. 27. Sub-themes • Indicators, trends, and scenarios (locations and times of use, quality required, technology used, developments over time) – Policy/Institutional/Legal mapping (which organizations are responsible for which decisions, monitoring, enforcement, impacts of change) • Options Analysis (benefits, costs, impacts, context-specific best practices, potential) • Decision Support Tools (simplified online tools for rapid visualization of the impacts of various options with stakeholders and decision makers. e.g. AQUADUCT Flood Analyzer, IIASA/FAO GAEZ, IIASA Energy Multi-Criteria Analysis tool, etc. and a more sophisticated node-link hydro economic model. e.g. WEAP, RiverWare, MIKE)
  28. 28. increase (°C) mean water temperature van Vliet M, Kabat P, et al (2013), Global Environ. Change B1 (2071-2100) A2 (2071-2100) maskedchange (%) low (10-percentile) flow masked Climate change impacts on Q & Tw
  29. 29. 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Gm3 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS Preliminary results Climate policy may be insufficient to significantly reduce water demand 2˚C Mitigation Scenario Co-benefit of climate mitigation Source: Fricko et.al.2016
  30. 30. Storage-Yield Curves With and Without Evaporation 0 20 40 60 80 0 50 100 0 500 1000 0 200 400 600 0 50 100 150 200 0 100 200 300 0 10 20 30 0 50 100 y 0 20 40 60 80 0 50 100 150 0 200 400 600 0 200 400 600 0 100 200 300 0 200 400 0 200 400 600 800 0 200 400 600 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 50 100

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