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Drought risk and resilience decision support - Chris Hughes, Arup, at IWA 2019

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Chris Hughes, drought specialist at Arup, has written a guest blog for the Resilience Shift. In it he discusses some of the ways cities might better prepare for drought and resilience to water scarcity. Chris spoke about the work of his team recently at the IWA Conference on Efficient Water Management in Manila in January this year and referenced the Resilience Shift, and its work on the City Water Resilience Approach and online collaboration tool. You can see his presentation here.

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Drought risk and resilience decision support - Chris Hughes, Arup, at IWA 2019

  1. 1. City Scale Drought Risk and Resilience Decision Support Chris Hughes, Arup
  2. 2. 2 • Introduction and Context • Some Perspectives on Drought Risk • What’s happening in our Cities? • How we can help make Cities more Drought Resilient - Cities Alive - City Water Resilience Framework - Engaging Stakeholders • Summary City Scale Drought Risk and Resilience Decision Support
  3. 3. 3 The World Bank and the United Nations have published a report warning that 40 percent of the world is currently affected by water scarcity. The report, entitled Making Every Drop Count, states that around 2.5 billion people – 36 percent of the world’s population – live in water-scarce regions where more than 20 percent of global GDP is produced. “By 2050, more than half of the world’s population—and about half of global grain production—will be at risk due to water stress,” it adds. Around 90 percent of financing for disaster risk mitigation however is directed at emergency response and reconstruction, leaving a shortfall in preparatory measure and resilience. The report adds that: “while US$106 trillion is available through different funds worldwide, only 1.6 percent is invested in infrastructure and even less in initiatives to increase resilience”. Context
  4. 4. The expanded nexus Why Water Resilience?
  5. 5. 5 2018 - A Drought challenge in the Northern Hemisphere A heat map showing the northern hemisphere in July 2018 (Climate Reanalyzer from the University of Maine)
  6. 6. 6 UK July 2018 – North West England Derby Telegraph 2018
  7. 7. 7 • General climate change trends projected over UK land for the 21st century are broadly consistent with earlier projections (UKCP09) showing an increased chance of milder, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers along with an increase in the frequency and intensity of extremes. • By the end of the 21st century, all areas of the UK are projected to be warmer, more so in summer than in winter. • Hot summers are expected to become more common. And we can expect more of the same (UKCP18 Projections)
  8. 8. 8 Understanding Drought Risks • Of course there are excellent tools available to assess Drought Risk: • In cities we need these modelling tools but we also need to take a more holistic approach so let’s turn our attention to the challenge in cities Flood & Drought portalIDMP
  9. 9. 68% of the world’s population will live in cities by 2050. Water is fundamental to inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable cities. Drought Represents on of the key ‘shocks and stresses’ facing city resilience Why Cities?
  10. 10. Why Cities?
  11. 11. 11 What’s happening in our Cities? 100 RC (2018)
  12. 12. 12 The Fastest Growing Cities are also at highest risk from climate change
  13. 13. Responding to the Challenge of Droughts in Cities Drought in Cities City Water Resilience Framework Engaging New Actors Cities Alive
  14. 14. Cities Alive Putting People First Basin Sensitive Cities Integrated Design City Regeneration Transcending Barriers Atofogasta, one of the driest cities in the world, Cities Alive: Rethinking cities in arid environments
  15. 15. 15 • Cities Alive: Water for People demonstrates how understanding a city’s water basin can lead to better water management and can protect the local environment. • ‘Working together’ and ‘Working with nature’ are two key take aways from this report. • Connecting people and re-thinking approach to city water management and city interaction with water resource. • Harnessing opportunities across the whole water cycle to reduce drought conditions. • ‘Upstream thinking’ is important for how cities approach water management. This calls for greater collaboration, working with landowners, business and local authorities further upstream to consider the water basin as a whole. Cities Alive and Drought Resilience
  16. 16. Defining Urban Water Resilience “the capacity of the urban water system - including the human, social, political, economic, physical and natural assets - to anticipate, absorb, adapt, respond to, and learn from shocks and stresses, in order to protect public health and wellbeing, the natural environment and minimise economic disruption.” Resilience includes key functions and the policies, programmes and infrastructures that: • Provide affordable access to water and sanitation for all • Protect residents from water-related shocks and stresses • Connect people to opportunities through transportation
  17. 17. City Water Resilience Approach The City Water Resilience Approach is a multi-step process that moves from stakeholder engagement and city assessment, to creating and implementing action plans, and then monitoring the results of interventions. It has been developed with the goal of helping cities achieve safer and more secure water resources, and protections in place from water-related shocks and stresses.
  18. 18. AMMAN MEXICO CITY GREATER MIAMI & THE BEACHES CAPE TOWN HULLGREATER MANCHESTER ROTTERDAM THESSALONIKI LOCATION: Amman POPULATION: 4 million LOCATION: Cape Town POPULATION: 3.7 million LOCATION: Hull POPULATION: 323,000 LOCATION: Mexico City POPULATION: 21.3 million LOCATION: Miami POPULATION: 5.9 million City Water Resilience Framework
  19. 19. 4 Dimensions 12 Goals 52 Sub-Goals Qualitative Indicators Quantitative Indicators What objectives you need to achieve water resilience? Which factors should you observe ? City Water Resilience Framework Leadership & Strategy Infrastructure & Ecosystems Health & Wellbeing Planning & Finance
  20. 20. Leadership & Strategy Infrastructure & Ecosystems Health & Wellbeing Planning & Finance City Water Resilience Framework
  21. 21. Engaging with City Stakeholders
  22. 22. A Collaborative Approach
  23. 23. WaterShare Current Functions 1. Water Cycle Mapping 2. Stakeholder Network 3. Governance Process Mapping 4. Resilient Governance Assessment Purposes 1. Improves coordination between organizations working in the urban water system 2. Visualizes complex systems for non-specialists 3. Facilitates an analysis of resilient governance
  24. 24. Exploring Shocks & Stresses using WaterShare • WaterShare - digital governance tool • Helps users map the stakeholder landscape • Helps cities better understand their local water basin - types of shocks and stresses confronted, their impact on natural and man-made infrastructural systems, and the interaction between key stakeholders involved in urban water management.
  25. 25. 25 • Clear challenge to address the resilience of cities to drought globally • We obviously need robust water resources understanding and metrics to underpin our planning and adaptation to drought • However there is a need for more holistic and integrated planning that supports the principles of the IWA Water Wise Cities – more multi sector focus • Engaging people and convening new actors is key - our Cities Alive and WaterShare Initiatives are toolkits to support this objective • Our CWRF can be adapted to deliver a Drought Focussed Lens to help understand and respond to holistic challenges of droughts and cities Summary

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