International Marketing Update - Dr. Dermot Hayes, Iowa State University, From the 2018 World Pork Expo, June 6 - 8, 2018, Des Moines, IA, USA. More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2018-world-pork-expo

1. Pork Export Market Outlook
Presented at the World Pork Expo
June 7th 2018
Dermot Hayes
Iowa State University

2. Overview
• Exports from January to March
• Economic fundamentals
• Positive market developments
• Negative market developments
• US production and consumption
• Trade policy concerns and opportunities

3. United States (Consumption/Domestic) Export Statistics
Commodity: Pork & Pork Products,
Year To Date: January - April
Partner Country
Quantity % Change
2016 2017 2018 2018/2017
World 750196 859280 896365 4.32
Mexico 234239 282898 301546 6.59
Japan 128323 134602 134187 - 0.31
China 115132 117773 103877 - 11.80
Korea South 52350 67062 96583 44.02
Canada 63514 67227 64480 - 4.09
Hong Kong 64047 66766 54306 - 18.66
Colombia 11102 21790 29913 37.28
Australia 20065 26262 27782 5.79
Philippines 10357 12827 14105 9.96
Dominican Republic 8751 11379 13623 19.73
Honduras 8114 9308 10391 11.64
Chile 4011 8423 7719 - 8.35
Guatemala 5400 4954 5651 14.07
Taiwan 3330 4633 5211 12.48
Panama 2126 2345 3308 41.07
El Salvador 1301 1427 2548 78.57
Nicaragua 1841 1580 2314 46.50

4. 0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Brazil(M
T)
Brazil(SC)
Canada
Denm
ark
France
Germ
any
GreatBritain
Ireland
Netherlands
Spain
USA
Dollars/Pound
Total Cost Summary (Cold Weight) - 2016
Variable Costs Feed Maintenance Fixed costs Labor

5. $0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
$1.10
1/4/2014 1/4/2015 1/4/2016 1/4/2017 1/4/2018
U.S.$/pound
Live Hog Prices
Weekly since Jan 2014
U.S. (Live) Germany (Live) Spain (Live) Canada (Ontario) (Live)

6. -0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Dollars/Pound
Average Net Profit Over Time - 2016
Brazil (SC) Canada Denmark France Germany Netherlands Spain USA

8. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Meat and Poultry Consumption in Mexico
Meat, Beef and Veal Mexico Meat, Swine Mexico Poultry, Meat, Broiler Mexico

9. 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Meat and Poultry Consumption in Colombia
Meat, Beef and Veal Meat, Swine Poultry, Meat, Broiler

10. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
South Korean Pork Market
Production Imports Domestic Consumption

11. 0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
EU Pork Market
Production Exports Domestic Consumption

12. 0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Japanese Pork Imports by Country
United States Canada Denmark Mexico Spain Chile

13. 0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Pork Imports by Country
China Japan Mexico

14. US Protein Production in 2018
• Beef +3.9%
• Pork +4.6%
• Broiler +1.6%

15. Year Comm’l % Chg. Avg Carcass % Chg. Comm’l Pork % Chg.
Quarter Slaughter Year Ago Weight Year Ago Production Year Ago
2016 (1,000 hd) (lbs) (mil. Lbs)
I 29,262 1.9 213 -0.9 6,230 1.1
II 28,116 1.0 213 -0.2 5,963 0.6
III 29,323 3.0 208 -0.6 6,100 2.4
IV 31,539 3.8 211 -0.6 6,648 3.0
Year 118,240 2.4 211 -0.6 24,941 1.8
2017
I 30,178 3.1 213 -0.2 6,410 2.9
II 29,165 3.7 211 -0.9 6,137 2.9
III 29,967 2.2 209 0.2 6,240 2.3
IV 32,007 1.5 213 0.6 6,796 2.2
Year 121,317 2.6 211 -0.1 25,584 2.6
2018
I 31,075 3.0 214 0.6 6,645 3.7
II 29,999 2.9 212 0.9 6,374 3.9
III 30,978 3.4 209 -0.0 6,461 3.5
IV 33,489 4.6 213 0.3 7,145 5.1
Year 125,541 3.5 212 0.4 26,625 4.1
2019
I 31,415 1.1 215 0.3 6,743 1.5
II 30,629 2.1 214 0.5 6,542 2.6
III 32,060 3.5 210 0.7 6,733 4.2
IV 34,251 2.3 214 0.2 7,320 2.4
Year 128,355 2.2 213 0.4 27,338 2.7
LMIC Pork Production and Price Quarterly Forecasts (5/16/18)
Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC

16. M-C-14
05/18/18
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Pounds
US PORK CONSUMPTION
Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual
Data Source: USDA-NASS and USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
+8.5% (‘15 vs ‘14)
+0.7% (‘16 vs ‘15)
-0.02% (’17 vs ’16)
+2.2% (’18 vs ’17)
+1.7% (’19 vs ’18)

17. 2017 2018
Feb 75.18 73.50
Apr 62.45 53.83
May 71.90 65.25
On June 1
Jun 80.93 77.60
Jul 82.13 78.80
Aug 82.00 77.53
Oct 68.88 63.25
Dec 62.93 57.58
Feb 66.25 62.40

18. Source: CME Group

20. 2013 = +$4.77 [-$14.80 to +$22.07]
2014 = +$39.48 [+$1.62 to +$84.64]
2015 = -$14.32 [-$30.32 to +$4.70]
2016 = -$13.10 [-$45.69 to +$17.05]
2017 = +$1.45 [-$30.32 to +$24.89]
2018f = -$17.13 [-$33.68 to +$8.92]
Jan-Aug 2019f = -$10.66 [-$25 to +$1]

21. Source: USDA/AMS

23. Trade Concerns
• We had lined up a series of preferential free trade deals including
Japan and Vietnam
• The Philippines, Indonesia and even China had expressed an interest
in joining TPP
• Instead, we are now on the outside of these deals and the EU, Canada
and Mexico will have better access under TPP 11 and the EU-Japan
FTA
• China imposed a 25% duty on US pork on April 1st 2018
• Mexico just imposed a NAFTA related duty of 10% on pork legs as of
July 5th, This will increase to 20%

25. Trade Policy Opportunity
• China charges a duty of 12% on frozen pork and 20% of chilled pork
• In addition, importers pay a 10-11% discriminatory VAT
• China also rejects pork fed with Ractopamine and it makes it hard for
chilled pork to clear customs
• The elimination of any or all of these barriers could have an
enormous impact on US exports, especially if the concession was
applied to US product only