This document summarizes an ex-post impact assessment of EU Cohesion Policy from 2007-2013 and discusses Latvia's experience with EU funds. It notes that impact evaluations are important for policymakers but were only recently applied to EU policies. It also discusses studies conducted in Latvia to quantify the impact of EU funds, finding they contributed an average annual 1.3% to GDP growth. The document raises questions about how contributions to the EU budget are defined and what is meant by expecting a bigger impact from Cohesion Policy in countries receiving significant funding relative to their GDP.

1. Ex-post impact assessment of
EU Cohesion Policy 2007-2013
Boriss Kņigins, EU Funds Strategy Department, Deputy Director
21.06.2016

2. • Impact evaluation of EU Cohesion policy on regions is very important for
policy makers, however only recently such approach is applied also to
estimate EU policies.
• Example of evaluating the spillover effect from investments in Poland is
very interesting, but as small EU MS Latvia would like to see replication
of such experimental calculation for MS similar to Latvia
size/population/etc.
• In the last years EU funds and Cohesion policy become one of most
important sources of investment and economic growth in Latvia - aprox.
70% of all public investments, with average annual impact on GDP
1,3%% in the last five years (ESF, ERAF, CF).
General remarks
20.06.2016 2

3. 20.06.2016 3
1. In Latvia first attempt to quantify impact of EU funds were in 2007
(BICEPS&SEE).
2. In 2011 SIA „Stockholm School of Economics in Riga” un „Baltic International
Centre for Economic Policy Studies” developed macroeconomic model, which
evaluates the impact of EU investments. With the help of this model, each year
is estimated the impact of EU investments on GDP, employment and sectors.
3. According to this estimation average annual real GDP increase attributable to
the funds is 3.9% which may be compared with the EC estimated average
annual increase of 6% over the period 2004-2020. EC estimate is based on a
HERMIN type model and suggests that the impact of the EU funds in Latvia is
the highest among the EU member states. The fact that our model suggests a
lower impact is at least partially due to the assumption of 30% crowing out
(Evaluation of the impact of EU funds on the economy of Latvia, 2011,
BICEPS&SSE).
4. Very significant impact during financial and economical crisis in 2008-2011.
Latvia and impact of EU funds

4. 20.06.2016 4
• Could you please more explain the statement «Throughout the presented
analysis we assume that each Member State contributes to the EU Cohesion
Policy proportionally to its contribution to the overall EU budget. The regional
shares of national contributions are then allocated according to the regional
shares of GDP within each country», and how the authors define in that
particular case «contribution»?
• According to the statement «Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania and Latvia are the
countries receiving significant Cohesion Policy funding relative to their GDP.
Therefore, we would expect a bigger impact of the ECP in these countries in
terms of key economic variables, such as GDP, employment, investment and
consumption” Latvia would like to know what is meant by «expect a bigger
impact» (are there concrete aims, indicators, progress %) and compared to
which countries?»
Questions:

5. 20.06.2016 5
Thank you!
Boriss Kņigins
Ministry of Finance of Republic of Latvia
EU Funds Strategy Department
Deputy Director
Boriss.Knigins@fm.gov.lv
www.fm.gov.lv
www.esfondi.lv