Starting from a legal-institutional perspective, the lecture sketched out the major challenges for researchers and policymakers alike. It also looked at the areas of economic governance, monetary union and banking union with a view to the sustainability of Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union.
Reassessing the EU Monetary and Fiscal FrameworkADEMU_Project
This document introduces the ADEMU project, a Horizon 2020 research project that aims to study challenges facing the euro area's monetary and fiscal framework. The project is coordinated by Ramon Marimon and involves researchers from 8 top European universities. It will conduct policy-oriented basic research on important issues like fiscal-monetary interactions, risk sharing, financial stability, and how to strengthen the euro area. The research is organized into 4 work packages and advisory input is provided by an international committee of economists. The project aims to stimulate new insights and its final conference will assess the state of the euro area in 2018.
Fiscal Federalism in the EU?: Evolution and Future Choices for EMU (by Alicia...ADEMU_Project
This document discusses the challenges facing fiscal federalism in the EU and options for its future evolution. It outlines three main challenges: fiscal discipline, structural asymmetries between members, and dealing with asymmetric economic shocks. The EU's system has evolved from initial decentralization to address the sovereign debt crisis. Going forward, there are two models - the surveillance model which reinforces existing rules, and the fiscal federalism model which enhances EU fiscal capacity. However, both models pose threats to national sovereignty and democratic legitimacy. Effective reform will require balancing centralization with national autonomy in a manner that respects constitutional courts.
René Smits: Are current fiscal rules credible? ADEMU_Project
Are current fiscal rules credible? What is the role of fiscal rules and of independent fiscal councils? Rene Smit's slides from the ADEMU 'How much of a fiscal union for the EMU' conference.
Policy panel: how much of a Fiscal Union? Joaquin AlmuniaADEMU_Project
The document summarizes a policy panel discussion on the level of fiscal union needed within the European Monetary Union (EMU). It notes that without some degree of fiscal union, the EMU will not be sustainable, but there are disagreements between France and Germany on the appropriate model. It calls for short-term actions like addressing Greek debt and longer-term discussions on establishing a fiscal capacity and mechanisms for risk-sharing within the Eurozone.
This document discusses the need for and potential forms of further fiscal union in the Eurozone. It makes the following key points:
1) While significant progress has been made in fiscal coordination and crisis management since 1997, the current framework is still not delivering and is not credible.
2) More fiscal union could take the form of strengthened rules and enforcement, more symmetry between deficit and surplus countries, a stabilization fund, and an expanded role for the ESM.
3) However, the perceived need for reform may not have changed significantly since 2016. While populism and Euroskepticism get attention, polls show stable or rising support for EU membership and the euro. Most citizens support further integration if reforms address unemployment
Reassessing the EU Monetary and Fiscal FrameworkADEMU_Project
This document introduces the ADEMU project, a Horizon 2020 research project that aims to study challenges facing the euro area's monetary and fiscal framework. The project is coordinated by Ramon Marimon and involves researchers from 8 top European universities. It will conduct policy-oriented basic research on important issues like fiscal-monetary interactions, risk sharing, financial stability, and how to strengthen the euro area. The research is organized into 4 work packages and advisory input is provided by an international committee of economists. The project aims to stimulate new insights and its final conference will assess the state of the euro area in 2018.
Fiscal Federalism in the EU?: Evolution and Future Choices for EMU (by Alicia...ADEMU_Project
This document discusses the challenges facing fiscal federalism in the EU and options for its future evolution. It outlines three main challenges: fiscal discipline, structural asymmetries between members, and dealing with asymmetric economic shocks. The EU's system has evolved from initial decentralization to address the sovereign debt crisis. Going forward, there are two models - the surveillance model which reinforces existing rules, and the fiscal federalism model which enhances EU fiscal capacity. However, both models pose threats to national sovereignty and democratic legitimacy. Effective reform will require balancing centralization with national autonomy in a manner that respects constitutional courts.
René Smits: Are current fiscal rules credible? ADEMU_Project
Are current fiscal rules credible? What is the role of fiscal rules and of independent fiscal councils? Rene Smit's slides from the ADEMU 'How much of a fiscal union for the EMU' conference.
Policy panel: how much of a Fiscal Union? Joaquin AlmuniaADEMU_Project
The document summarizes a policy panel discussion on the level of fiscal union needed within the European Monetary Union (EMU). It notes that without some degree of fiscal union, the EMU will not be sustainable, but there are disagreements between France and Germany on the appropriate model. It calls for short-term actions like addressing Greek debt and longer-term discussions on establishing a fiscal capacity and mechanisms for risk-sharing within the Eurozone.
This document discusses the need for and potential forms of further fiscal union in the Eurozone. It makes the following key points:
1) While significant progress has been made in fiscal coordination and crisis management since 1997, the current framework is still not delivering and is not credible.
2) More fiscal union could take the form of strengthened rules and enforcement, more symmetry between deficit and surplus countries, a stabilization fund, and an expanded role for the ESM.
3) However, the perceived need for reform may not have changed significantly since 2016. While populism and Euroskepticism get attention, polls show stable or rising support for EU membership and the euro. Most citizens support further integration if reforms address unemployment
Long-Term Sustainability of a Monetary and Fiscal UnionADEMU_Project
This document provides an overview of Jesús Fernández-Villaverde's presentation on the long-term sustainability of monetary and fiscal unions like the Eurozone. Some of the key ideas discussed are that monetary unions induce changes to member countries' political economies, both reinforcing and undermining sustainability. Understanding these changes is important to building a successful union. Evidence shows the euro reduced reform incentives in harder-hit periphery nations and increased them in Germany. Booms can obscure governance quality and change incentives and selection of politicians. There were two types of problems among troubled Eurozone nations: public debt issues for Greece and Portugal, and large real estate bubbles for Ireland and Spain.
Long-term Sustainability of a monetary and fiscal union. ADEMU_Project
This document summarizes Work Package 1 of the ADEMU research project, which aims to conduct analysis and develop proposals to ensure the long-term sustainability of the European Monetary and Fiscal Union. It discusses three components of the analysis: understanding sovereign debt crises, ensuring debt sustainability, and improving fiscal risk-sharing. It also summarizes several research papers that will contribute to each component and their key topics, such as minimizing future sovereign risks and designing a financial stability fund as a component of fiscal union.
This document discusses independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) in the EU and Spain. It outlines two systems of IFIs - the Anglo-Saxon model and European model. National IFIs aim to increase transparency, discipline, and sustainability of public finances. The AIReF was created in Spain in 2013 to oversee budget stability. It monitors Spain's fiscal targets and evaluates compliance. Recent reports call for strengthening IFI roles, including establishing an Advisory European Fiscal Board to complement existing national fiscal councils.
This document summarizes a model that examines the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy in the euro area and how this contributed to the region's recent economic malaise. The model is able to reproduce key features of the euro area's weak growth, low inflation, and sovereign debt crisis when calibrated to reflect how policies are conducted. An alternative policy configuration involving coordination of monetary and fiscal policies through a centrally-operated fund issuing non-defaultable debt could have led to improved economic outcomes by making public debt crisis self-fulfilling events less likely and giving policymakers more room to respond to economic downturns in a stabilizing manner.
Address by Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis at the Euro Conference – LatviaLatvijas Banka
The document is a speech by Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis at the Euro Conference - Latvia. It discusses Latvia joining the eurozone on January 1, 2014, making it the first country to adopt the euro after overcoming a financial crisis. The Prime Minister notes Latvia has fulfilled requirements and demonstrated its ability to deal with economic problems facing other eurozone countries. He argues that closer economic integration, such as adopting the euro, is important for small countries like Latvia to remain competitive globally. However, adopting the euro alone will not guarantee success - Latvia must also continue reforms to increase competitiveness, such as boosting exports and reducing inequality. The Prime Minister expresses hope that adopting the euro will serve as a springboard for higher
New EU toolbox for economic policy and crisis managementLatvijas Banka
The document summarizes the economic crisis in Europe since 2008 and the policy response at the EU level. It discusses the creation of financial assistance tools like the EFSF and ESM. It also outlines the new EU economic governance framework established between 2010-2013, including the European Semester process, fiscal rules and budgetary monitoring, banking union, and integrated oversight of national economic policies. While progress has been made, the economic situation in the EU remains fragile and fully implementing structural reforms at the national level is critical to restoring growth and stability.
Presentation by Andris Vilks, Minister of Finance, Republic of Latvia at the Bank of Latvia conference "Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?"
Riga, November 2, 2012.
The EAFS and the policy mix - Marco ButiADEMU_Project
The recovery of the euro area has been particularly slow both by historical and international standards. Nine years after the economic and financial crisis struck, economic activity in the euro area is expanding at a moderate rate. However, the persistence of crisis legacies ─ such as the still-high unemployment rate and weak investment ─ suggest the recovery is not complete.
So far policy actions to support growth have excessively relied on monetary policy, resulting in an unbalanced policy mix. If monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth, is there a case for an expansionary fiscal stance at the aggregate euro area level? Can this be reconciled with the Stability and Growth Pact?
The presentation explores the concept of fiscal space and the effectiveness of fiscal expansion in surplus countries for the euro area’s internal and external adjustment. Finally, it discusses the build-up over the medium term of a fiscal stabilisation function at the central level.
Economic Policy Proposals and Law Judical Review as an exampleADEMU_Project
This document discusses judicial review of economic policy proposals and austerity measures in Europe. It examines how national constitutional courts and the European Court of Justice have reviewed austerity programs. While some national measures have been successfully challenged, the courts generally defer to governments. The document also analyzes legal challenges to actions of the European Central Bank, finding limited ability to seek review of the ECB. It raises questions about the appropriate division of authority between national and EU courts and optimal oversight of the ECB.
Presentation by Leszek Balcerowicz, Warsaw School of Economics at the Conference "Have We Learnt Anything from the Crisis?" in Riga, Latvia. 17.10.2014
Stabilisation policy in currency unions wp outlineADEMU_Project
This document discusses topics related to fiscal policy coordination in a currency union, including policy coordination approaches and challenges, fiscal multipliers theory and empirical evidence, and social insurance and labor market policies. Specific areas examined include tax competition between countries, the effect of different types of government spending on multipliers, the impact of unemployment insurance on labor market risk, and the role of social insurance policies at the union level in mitigating economic risks across members.
1) The financial crisis prompted both short-term responses like fiscal/monetary stimulus as well as long-term structural reforms to financial stability frameworks.
2) The EU implemented new regulations through Basel accords and established the European System of Financial Supervision with institutions like the ECB Single Supervisory Mechanism and European Systemic Risk Board.
3) Coordination of fiscal, monetary, and macroprudential policies remains a challenge within the eurozone where policies are not as integrated, compared to other EU countries which can coordinate more effectively.
Debate on europe - How did Europe react to the economic and financial crisisAndrea Danni
How did Europe react to the economic and
financial crisis - Debate held at European College of Parma with the participation of Prof. Alfonso Mattera and Prof. Mario Monti
Monetary policy in the euro area: lessons from the crisis and challenges aheadLatvijas Banka
The document discusses lessons from the euro area crisis and ongoing challenges for monetary policy. It notes that while the ECB effectively dealt with liquidity issues, solvency problems involving banks and sovereigns were postponed. This led to a correlation between bank and sovereign risk that hindered the real economy. Current challenges include dealing with bank restructuring and maintaining accommodative financial conditions to support recovery, as interest rates remain too tight.
EURO - key considerations for future perspectiveLatvijas Banka
The document discusses key considerations regarding Latvia's adoption of the euro. It makes three main points:
1) Joining the eurozone is a logical step that supports further European economic and monetary integration. A common currency is needed to sustain a unified economic area without barriers to trade and capital flows.
2) Adopting the euro will be a catalyst for structural reforms and fiscal discipline in Latvia, helping exit the economic crisis and put the economy on solid footing.
3) Latvia's adoption of the euro signals its commitment to respecting common rules and acting in solidarity with other eurozone members to address fiscal policy issues and economic imbalances that threaten the euro's stability. Deeper fiscal and political integration may be
How much of a fiscal union for the EMU? Has the answer to this, and related questions regarding the EMU fiscal and monetary framework, changed after 2016?
Competitive effects of trade: Theory and measurement ademuADEMU_Project
Trade induces many different types of reallocations across firms and products. These reallocations include selection effects (which products are sold where; which firms survive, and which ones export) as well as competition effects (responses in markups that generate changes in the relative sales of products in a given destination).
"Debt Sustainability and the Terms of Official Support", by Giancarlo Corsett...ADEMU_Project
This document discusses how the terms of official lending can impact assessments of whether a country can sustain its debt levels. It presents a three-period model to illustrate how official lending with certain terms, such as long-term maturities at concessional rates, can restore debt sustainability by reducing the risk of default. The model is then used to analyze Portugal's debt crisis from 2011-2015, finding that official lending through the IMF and ESM helped lower borrowing costs and change the composition of Portugal's debt in a way that matches the data. Counterfactual analyses suggest debt sustainability thresholds are more sensitive to debt maturity terms than interest rate spreads.
Long-Term Sustainability of a Monetary and Fiscal UnionADEMU_Project
This document provides an overview of Jesús Fernández-Villaverde's presentation on the long-term sustainability of monetary and fiscal unions like the Eurozone. Some of the key ideas discussed are that monetary unions induce changes to member countries' political economies, both reinforcing and undermining sustainability. Understanding these changes is important to building a successful union. Evidence shows the euro reduced reform incentives in harder-hit periphery nations and increased them in Germany. Booms can obscure governance quality and change incentives and selection of politicians. There were two types of problems among troubled Eurozone nations: public debt issues for Greece and Portugal, and large real estate bubbles for Ireland and Spain.
Long-term Sustainability of a monetary and fiscal union. ADEMU_Project
This document summarizes Work Package 1 of the ADEMU research project, which aims to conduct analysis and develop proposals to ensure the long-term sustainability of the European Monetary and Fiscal Union. It discusses three components of the analysis: understanding sovereign debt crises, ensuring debt sustainability, and improving fiscal risk-sharing. It also summarizes several research papers that will contribute to each component and their key topics, such as minimizing future sovereign risks and designing a financial stability fund as a component of fiscal union.
This document discusses independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) in the EU and Spain. It outlines two systems of IFIs - the Anglo-Saxon model and European model. National IFIs aim to increase transparency, discipline, and sustainability of public finances. The AIReF was created in Spain in 2013 to oversee budget stability. It monitors Spain's fiscal targets and evaluates compliance. Recent reports call for strengthening IFI roles, including establishing an Advisory European Fiscal Board to complement existing national fiscal councils.
This document summarizes a model that examines the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy in the euro area and how this contributed to the region's recent economic malaise. The model is able to reproduce key features of the euro area's weak growth, low inflation, and sovereign debt crisis when calibrated to reflect how policies are conducted. An alternative policy configuration involving coordination of monetary and fiscal policies through a centrally-operated fund issuing non-defaultable debt could have led to improved economic outcomes by making public debt crisis self-fulfilling events less likely and giving policymakers more room to respond to economic downturns in a stabilizing manner.
Address by Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis at the Euro Conference – LatviaLatvijas Banka
The document is a speech by Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis at the Euro Conference - Latvia. It discusses Latvia joining the eurozone on January 1, 2014, making it the first country to adopt the euro after overcoming a financial crisis. The Prime Minister notes Latvia has fulfilled requirements and demonstrated its ability to deal with economic problems facing other eurozone countries. He argues that closer economic integration, such as adopting the euro, is important for small countries like Latvia to remain competitive globally. However, adopting the euro alone will not guarantee success - Latvia must also continue reforms to increase competitiveness, such as boosting exports and reducing inequality. The Prime Minister expresses hope that adopting the euro will serve as a springboard for higher
New EU toolbox for economic policy and crisis managementLatvijas Banka
The document summarizes the economic crisis in Europe since 2008 and the policy response at the EU level. It discusses the creation of financial assistance tools like the EFSF and ESM. It also outlines the new EU economic governance framework established between 2010-2013, including the European Semester process, fiscal rules and budgetary monitoring, banking union, and integrated oversight of national economic policies. While progress has been made, the economic situation in the EU remains fragile and fully implementing structural reforms at the national level is critical to restoring growth and stability.
Presentation by Andris Vilks, Minister of Finance, Republic of Latvia at the Bank of Latvia conference "Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?"
Riga, November 2, 2012.
The EAFS and the policy mix - Marco ButiADEMU_Project
The recovery of the euro area has been particularly slow both by historical and international standards. Nine years after the economic and financial crisis struck, economic activity in the euro area is expanding at a moderate rate. However, the persistence of crisis legacies ─ such as the still-high unemployment rate and weak investment ─ suggest the recovery is not complete.
So far policy actions to support growth have excessively relied on monetary policy, resulting in an unbalanced policy mix. If monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth, is there a case for an expansionary fiscal stance at the aggregate euro area level? Can this be reconciled with the Stability and Growth Pact?
The presentation explores the concept of fiscal space and the effectiveness of fiscal expansion in surplus countries for the euro area’s internal and external adjustment. Finally, it discusses the build-up over the medium term of a fiscal stabilisation function at the central level.
Economic Policy Proposals and Law Judical Review as an exampleADEMU_Project
This document discusses judicial review of economic policy proposals and austerity measures in Europe. It examines how national constitutional courts and the European Court of Justice have reviewed austerity programs. While some national measures have been successfully challenged, the courts generally defer to governments. The document also analyzes legal challenges to actions of the European Central Bank, finding limited ability to seek review of the ECB. It raises questions about the appropriate division of authority between national and EU courts and optimal oversight of the ECB.
Presentation by Leszek Balcerowicz, Warsaw School of Economics at the Conference "Have We Learnt Anything from the Crisis?" in Riga, Latvia. 17.10.2014
Stabilisation policy in currency unions wp outlineADEMU_Project
This document discusses topics related to fiscal policy coordination in a currency union, including policy coordination approaches and challenges, fiscal multipliers theory and empirical evidence, and social insurance and labor market policies. Specific areas examined include tax competition between countries, the effect of different types of government spending on multipliers, the impact of unemployment insurance on labor market risk, and the role of social insurance policies at the union level in mitigating economic risks across members.
1) The financial crisis prompted both short-term responses like fiscal/monetary stimulus as well as long-term structural reforms to financial stability frameworks.
2) The EU implemented new regulations through Basel accords and established the European System of Financial Supervision with institutions like the ECB Single Supervisory Mechanism and European Systemic Risk Board.
3) Coordination of fiscal, monetary, and macroprudential policies remains a challenge within the eurozone where policies are not as integrated, compared to other EU countries which can coordinate more effectively.
Debate on europe - How did Europe react to the economic and financial crisisAndrea Danni
How did Europe react to the economic and
financial crisis - Debate held at European College of Parma with the participation of Prof. Alfonso Mattera and Prof. Mario Monti
Monetary policy in the euro area: lessons from the crisis and challenges aheadLatvijas Banka
The document discusses lessons from the euro area crisis and ongoing challenges for monetary policy. It notes that while the ECB effectively dealt with liquidity issues, solvency problems involving banks and sovereigns were postponed. This led to a correlation between bank and sovereign risk that hindered the real economy. Current challenges include dealing with bank restructuring and maintaining accommodative financial conditions to support recovery, as interest rates remain too tight.
EURO - key considerations for future perspectiveLatvijas Banka
The document discusses key considerations regarding Latvia's adoption of the euro. It makes three main points:
1) Joining the eurozone is a logical step that supports further European economic and monetary integration. A common currency is needed to sustain a unified economic area without barriers to trade and capital flows.
2) Adopting the euro will be a catalyst for structural reforms and fiscal discipline in Latvia, helping exit the economic crisis and put the economy on solid footing.
3) Latvia's adoption of the euro signals its commitment to respecting common rules and acting in solidarity with other eurozone members to address fiscal policy issues and economic imbalances that threaten the euro's stability. Deeper fiscal and political integration may be
How much of a fiscal union for the EMU? Has the answer to this, and related questions regarding the EMU fiscal and monetary framework, changed after 2016?
Competitive effects of trade: Theory and measurement ademuADEMU_Project
Trade induces many different types of reallocations across firms and products. These reallocations include selection effects (which products are sold where; which firms survive, and which ones export) as well as competition effects (responses in markups that generate changes in the relative sales of products in a given destination).
"Debt Sustainability and the Terms of Official Support", by Giancarlo Corsett...ADEMU_Project
This document discusses how the terms of official lending can impact assessments of whether a country can sustain its debt levels. It presents a three-period model to illustrate how official lending with certain terms, such as long-term maturities at concessional rates, can restore debt sustainability by reducing the risk of default. The model is then used to analyze Portugal's debt crisis from 2011-2015, finding that official lending through the IMF and ESM helped lower borrowing costs and change the composition of Portugal's debt in a way that matches the data. Counterfactual analyses suggest debt sustainability thresholds are more sensitive to debt maturity terms than interest rate spreads.
Jonathan Rodden - Representation and Redistribution in Federations: Lessons f...ADEMU_Project
Professor Jonathan Rodden, Stanford University, describes how he has applied his on work on numerous federations in the United States and extracted lessons and principles that could be theoretically applied to the European Monetary Union.
Fiscally sound social inclusion: what, if any, lesson may EMU learn from the ...ADEMU_Project
The document summarizes Brazil's experience with fiscal rules and centralization over the past century, and discusses lessons that may be applicable to the European Monetary Union. Key points:
- Brazil has experimented with various degrees of fiscal centralization vs federalism over the decades, seeking the right balance of governability and representation.
- Recent fiscal rules like the 2000 Fiscal Responsibility Law helped rein in subnational debt and inflation, improving credibility. However, unexpected oil wealth and the global crisis relaxed constraints.
- The current administration expanded social spending and allowed new subnational debt, weakening fiscal discipline. Impeachment raised expectations of a return to responsible fiscal policies and stability.
"The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt" by Christoph Trebesch, Matthias S...ADEMU_Project
1) The document analyzes the seniority structure of sovereign debt using data on debt arrears and debt restructuring haircuts from 1980-2006.
2) It finds that official creditors like the IMF and World Bank tend to be more senior than other creditors like bilateral or commercial banks based on lower levels of arrears and haircuts.
3) However, bondholders appear to have equal or higher seniority than official creditors based on analyses of arrears and haircut data during debt crises.
Ramon Marimon's Comments - Discussion PanelADEMU_Project
The document summarizes a panel discussion on managing debt overhang that took place in Cambridge on September 3, 2016. The panelists were Rolf Strauch from the European Stability Mechanism, Jeromin Zettelmeyer from the German Ministry of Economics and Transport, and Martin Weale from Queen Mary University and the Bank of England. The chair was Ramon Marimon. The panel discussed scientific and engineering challenges related to debt overhang, fiscal policy problems, and the interplay between science, engineering, and policy approaches to issues like quantitative easing and banking union in Europe.
"Sovereign Debt and Structural Reforms"ADEMU_Project
This document discusses a model of sovereign debt and structural reforms. It introduces concepts like default, renegotiation, limited enforcement, and incomplete markets. The model examines the interaction between a country's debt burden, incentives to enact structural reforms after falling into recession, and potential welfare gains. It aims to determine optimal contracts, analyze market outcomes, and conduct quantitative analysis to address questions around debt sustainability, reform incentives, and gains from policy changes.
Juan Carlos Hatchondo's discussion of "Self-Fulfilling Debt Restructuring"ADEMU_Project
This document discusses a model of self-fulfilling debt restructuring where larger haircuts during debt settlements are associated with higher post-settlement bond spreads. The model incorporates coordination failures among lenders that can lead to either a "good" equilibrium with lending or a "bad" equilibrium with default. Larger haircuts occur after settlements in times of the bad equilibrium, leading bondholders to view higher haircuts as a negative signal about future repayment, which then feeds back to higher post-settlement spreads. The model aims to understand the link between haircuts, spreads, and measures of global risk premiums.
Pietro Reichlin's discussion of "Non-Defaultable Debt and Sovereign Risk"ADEMU_Project
This document summarizes a discussion of a paper on non-defaultable and sovereign debt. The paper uses a model to analyze proposals for "blue bonds" that are guaranteed by the EU and "red bonds" that are not. The model finds that blue bonds can slightly reduce default probabilities and bond spreads. However, these effects diminish over time in a multi-period model. Key questions are raised about how the EU could credibly enforce no default on blue bonds, and whether the model fully captures issues in the EU sovereign debt environment like moral hazard and contagion risk.
Wouter Den Haan's discussion of "Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations"ADEMU_Project
1) The paper shows that multiplicity of equilibria in sovereign debt models depends crucially on small changes in timing assumptions and whether the borrower chooses the amount borrowed or amount to be paid back.
2) The model implies that self-fulfilling beliefs can generate sovereign debt crises when the distribution of GDP has multiple peaks, such as recession and expansion regimes.
3) Timing assumptions are important, as creditors moving first means the borrower takes the interest rate as given, increasing the risk of multiple equilibria.
"Debt Crises: For Whom the Bell Toll", by Harlold L.Cole, Daniel Neuhann and ...ADEMU_Project
This document discusses a model of debt crises and contagion between two countries. The model explores how information acquisition by investors can generate multiple equilibria and affect sovereign bond prices and debt levels. When some investors are informed about countries' fundamentals while others remain uninformed, bond prices and debt levels may depend on the equilibrium selected. Even small domestic shocks can then lead to large changes in countries' debt burdens. The level of information in the market also influences whether crises are more likely to spread between countries or remain isolated events.
Ramon Marimon's discussion of "Self-fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The A...ADEMU_Project
This document summarizes Ramon Marimon's discussion of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal" by Mark Aguiar, Satyajit Chatterjee, Harold Cole and Zachary Stangebye (ACCS). The summary outlines five key points: 1) ACCS builds substantially on previous work by Chatterjee and Koch (CK) beyond just introducing "Desperate Deals", 2) sunspot equilibria may not be learnable but sovereign bond auctions provide information, 3) the paper could eliminate its use of sunspots, 4) "Desperate Deals" may have greater value than claimed,
Aitor Erce's discussion of "The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt"ADEMU_Project
- The paper presents two new datasets on sovereign debt: one on payment arrears by sovereign debtors to different creditor groups, and one on haircuts applied in sovereign debt restructurings to private and official creditors.
- Analyzing the datasets, the paper finds a clear pecking order among creditors, with multilateral institutions, bonds, bilateral loans, banks, and suppliers at the bottom in terms of seniority.
- The main policy conclusion is that the official sector should reconsider its approach to debt restructuring, as the analysis shows official creditors have become increasingly junior over time.
Tim Worrall's discussion of "Sovereign Debt and Structural Reforms"ADEMU_Project
This document provides a summary of the paper "Sovereign Debt and Structural Reforms" by Müller, Storesletten, and Zilibotti. It discusses the model's choices, the constrained optimal allocation, effort under different scenarios, and potential for future research. Key points include that effort affects the probability of moving to a better economic state, the cost of default is independent of debt levels or the economy, and states are modeled as a pair of economic productivity and reform level, giving the model structure and flexibility.
This document discusses whether debt levels are too high in the Euro area, specifically looking at Greece and other high-debt countries like Italy. For Greece, the author argues debt is unsustainable and needs to be reduced through an official debt restructuring. For other countries, debt may be sustainable now but leaves them vulnerable to shocks that could trigger another crisis. Two approaches for reducing debt are discussed: gradual fiscal adjustment or conducting a debt swap operation where some national debts are exchanged for Euro area debt. However, both approaches face challenges in providing credible commitment to debt reduction.
Igor Livshits' discussion of "Endogenous Political Turnover and Fluctuations ...ADEMU_Project
This document summarizes and provides comments on the paper "Endogenous Political Turnover and Fluctuations in Sovereign Default Risk". The paper puts forth a clear story that political turnover and sovereign default risk are endogenously determined. A simple model is described where politicians' identities determine growth rates and their borrowing decisions affect default risk. However, some comments question whether the story is fully supported by data on growth, debt levels, and actual defaults. Technical assumptions about politicians and voters are also noted to possibly be at odds with empirical evidence. Overall, while an interesting mechanism, more work may be needed to map the implications to real-world politics and fiscal outcomes.
"Endogenous Political Turnover and Fluctuations in Sovereign Default Risk", b...ADEMU_Project
The document discusses a model that augments the Eaton-Gersovitz framework for sovereign default with endogenous political turnover. It finds that politically induced short-termism by leaders concerned with reelection can microfound high discount rates and cause large fluctuations in sovereign default risk. Calibrating the model to growth rates and debt market statistics of Mexico, Peru, and Turkey, it shows periods of high default risk correspond to increases in the probability of a low-growth political regime taking hold.
Debt Into Growth: How Sovereign Debt Accelerated the Industrial RevolutionADEMU_Project
The document summarizes a paper by Ventura and Voth that argues sovereign debt accumulation in Britain accelerated the industrial revolution by:
1) Nobles purchased government bonds which reduced their investments in low-return agriculture, freeing up labor and raising wages.
2) This made industrial investments by capitalists more profitable, allowing them to accumulate capital faster.
3) A simple economic model shows that with financial frictions limiting credit, government debt alleviated constraints on capitalists and led to faster economic growth, technological diffusion, and social change compared to an economy without debt.
Charles Brendon's discussion of "Lending of Last Resort in an Open Economy"ADEMU_Project
This document summarizes a discussion of the paper "Lending of Last Resort in an Open Economy" by Luigi Bocola and Guido Lorenzoni. The discussant focuses on two main claims of the paper: 1) that bank foreign currency liabilities increase crisis exposure and there is a role for lender of last resort to eliminate crises, and 2) that high foreign liabilities may emerge endogenously. The discussant asks questions about the monetary policy assumptions in the model and how they contribute to multiplicity. They also ask about the intuition behind the possibility of multiplicity before a crisis and how general this result is. Finally, they comment that the concept of "lender of last resort" in
"Self fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal", by M...ADEMU_Project
1) The document discusses how sovereign governments can engage in "desperate deals" when faced with a failed bond auction, such as obtaining alternative financing at high interest rates or occasionally defaulting.
2) It presents a model where self-fulfilling debt crises occur in a "crisis zone" when a government would repay under normal pricing but default if faced with prices of zero for any positive debt issuance.
3) The model allows for "desperate deal" pricing during crises that makes the government indifferent between repaying and defaulting, and can generate crises with high but variable spreads like in the data.
This document discusses the link between the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) in the European Union. It provides background on the establishment of the EMU, including the convergence criteria laid out in the Maastricht Treaty. It then explains that the SGP was created to ensure fiscal discipline among EU member states after adopting the euro, as monetary policy was now centralized but fiscal policy remained at the national level. The SGP requires members to keep their budget deficit below 3% of GDP and debt below 60% of GDP in order to support monetary stability within the eurozone.
Presentation by Marco BUTI, Director-General European Commission, DG Economic and Financial Affairs
Conference on:
“Sovereign Debt Crises: Prevention and Management"
Rome, 10 December 2018
The Eurosystem consists of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the national central banks of euro area countries. The ECB was established to manage the euro and set monetary policy for the euro area. It aims to maintain price stability through its main decision-making bodies: the Governing Council and Executive Board. The ECB is independent from political influence and its primary objective is to maintain price stability in the euro area.
This document discusses the need for greater economic integration and coordination within the European Union to address issues revealed by the sovereign debt crisis. It argues that the EU needs more powers to enforce economic policy coordination and promote convergence between member states. It proposes giving the EU more authority to overrule national economic decisions that violate agreed targets. It also advocates developing an orderly default mechanism for member states and introducing European Debt Certificates. However, it acknowledges that increasing EU powers could exacerbate the democratic deficit, so it is important to also increase the legitimacy and accountability of EU decision-making.
This paper reports the progress of nominal and real convergence of Spain, Portugal and Greece during their accession to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). When the EMU was designed, it was hoped that it would induce nominal convergence (convergence of interest rates and inflation rates) and stimulate investments and economic growth through its positive microeconomic effects. As had been expected, nominal interest rates have converged quite early during the accession, output has been growing fast, and the countries experienced an inflow of foreign direct investments (FDI) and an increase of domestic investment rates. However, once within the EMU, all three countries experienced persistently higher inflation rates, which may be consistent with the convergence of price levels, instead of inflation. While all the above phenomena can be related to the EMU accession, in an econometric estimation for Spain in which we control for macroeconomic policies, we are unable to detect significant microeconomic effects of the EMU. Therefore, we conclude that it is the policies induced by the necessity to satisfy the Maastricht criteria that matter primarily for the macroeconomic performance soon after accession. In any case, the experience of the SPG is encouraging for the new member states facing accession to the EMU in the future.
Authored by: Marek Jarocinski
Published in 2003
The European Monetary Union: the Never-Ending Crisis by Jaime RequeijoCírculo de Empresarios
The document discusses the ongoing crisis facing the European Monetary Union. It argues the Union was poorly constructed as political priorities took precedence over economic prudence. Member states also showed fiscal irresponsibility through growing public debts. This caused doubts among debt holders, increasing borrowing costs for vulnerable countries. The crisis was further exacerbated by economic downturns in several countries and spillover effects across financial markets. Measures adopted so far may not be enough to solve the problems plaguing the Union and further breakups remain a risk if issues are not addressed.
This document presents a research project that aims to analyze whether and to what extent the European Commission has become "governmentalized" between 1994 and 2014 in response to the European economic crisis. It outlines hypotheses about factors that could explain an increase in the Commission's powers, structures, and resources for economic governance. The researchers plan to test these hypotheses by surveying officials and conducting interviews to understand how the Commission's role has changed in areas like economic policy coordination, fiscal surveillance, and financial assistance programs. The goal is to determine if the crisis resulted in a "critical juncture" that substantially increased the Commission's powers and abilities as a core executive body for the European economy.
This document provides a 3-paragraph summary of a policy brief on the current state of the European Union. It begins by outlining the economic advantages of adopting a single currency, such as reduced transaction costs and exchange rate uncertainty. However, it notes that more economic and fiscal integration is needed to ensure long-term success. The document then presents an action plan to strengthen economic governance and establish a European Debt Agency. It argues that growth is also important to overcoming the crisis. In conclusion, the policy brief advocates bold action to take advantage of the crisis and overcome current challenges facing the European Union.
This document provides a 3-paragraph summary of a policy brief on the current state of the European Union. It begins by outlining the economic advantages of adopting a single currency, such as reduced transaction costs and exchange rate uncertainty. However, it notes that more economic and fiscal integration is needed to ensure long-term success. The document then presents an action plan to strengthen economic governance and establish a European Debt Agency. It argues that growth is also important to overcoming the crisis. In conclusion, the policy brief advocates bold action to take advantage of the crisis and overcome current challenges facing the European Union.
This document discusses the background and state of play regarding the introduction of a Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) in the European Union. It notes that while the Banking Union aims to prevent future crises, an FTT could provide EU countries more fiscal flexibility in the short-term by generating estimated annual revenues of 30-35 billion euros. Eleven eurozone countries have proposed introducing harmonized FTT regimes through an enhanced cooperation procedure. The tax is intended to discourage harmful financial transactions and have the financial sector help address the crisis burden. However, some oppose an FTT due to concerns around reduced liquidity and its potential effects.
The document discusses the background and state of play regarding the financial transaction tax (FTT) in the European Union. It describes how the FTT could benefit participating eurozone countries by providing more fiscal flexibility. Eleven eurozone countries have proposed implementing a harmonized FTT through an enhanced cooperation procedure. The tax is estimated to generate 30-35 billion euros annually from the financial sector to contribute to public finances and address issues like youth unemployment. However, some oppose the FTT due to concerns it could reduce market liquidity and cause transactions costs to be passed on to retail investors and businesses. Supporters counter that the tax targets harmful short-term speculation rather than necessary risk hedging and liquidity.
The High-Level Expert Group on Sustainable Finance was established by the European Commission to develop recommendations for integrating sustainability into the EU's financial policy framework and accelerating the flow of capital towards sustainable development objectives. In this final report, the Group provides a comprehensive set of recommendations across the financial system. Key recommendations include establishing an EU taxonomy to define sustainable investment areas, clarifying investor duties to consider long-term environmental and social factors, upgrading disclosure rules around sustainability risks and opportunities, and developing sustainability standards and labels for financial products. The report aims to guide the European Commission's upcoming action plan on sustainable finance and help transition Europe's financial system to better support long-term sustainable growth.
The arguments for fiscal as well as monetary rules in a monetary union aiming at low inflation, the main weaknesses in the Stability and Growth Pact, and proposals for its reform are reviewed. Our own proposal for reforming the SGP is put forward: a requirement for eurozone Member States to enact entrenched legislation which would forbid budgets that led to public debt exceeding a certain proportion of GDP. Countries which failed to enact such provisions or which rescinded them could not remain in the eurozone. This would solve the key “enforcibility problem” that the SGP faces, without centralizing fiscal power in the European Commission. However, effective reform proposals are unlikely to be politically acceptable, and the SGP is likely to continue to be a dead letter. This suggests that the EMU was implemented prematurely.
Authored by: Jacek Rostowski
Published in 2004
Keynote speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECBLatvijas Banka
The president of the European Central Bank gave a keynote speech in Riga, Latvia encouraging Latvia to join the eurozone. He highlighted three lessons learned since the euro's introduction: 1) the euro has proven to be a stable currency, 2) countries need sustainable economic convergence both before and after adopting the euro, and 3) completing the institutions of the Economic and Monetary Union is important. He expressed confidence that Latvia is ready to join the eurozone given its efforts to overcome difficulties since 2008 and maintain economic stability.
Ardo Hansson. European recovery in longer-term perspective – a view from a (s...Eesti Pank
Governor Ardo Hansson participated in a panel discussion at the seminar organised by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. 09.10.2013
This document discusses the case for implementing a universal Financial Transaction Tax (FTT). It begins by outlining the progressive position in support of an FTT, including statements of support from political leaders. It then discusses the desirability and necessity of an FTT for both financial reform and fiscal stabilization purposes. The document argues that an FTT could help shrink the oversized financial sector, curb speculation, and raise substantial tax revenue. In under 3 sentences, the document makes the case for an FTT as a tool to change the financial system, increase stability, and raise revenue to address budget deficits while promoting a fairer tax system.
8. International Currency and Currency CrisisCharu Rastogi
This presentation deals with Euro Phases, Benefit and Cost of the Euro, Euro and Implication for India, Trade Invoicing in Euro vs. Dollars and South East Asian Currency Crisis
New Financial Regulations In Europe After Financial Crisis Abhijeet SinghalAbhijeet Singhal
The document discusses the financial crisis in Europe and the regulatory reforms implemented by the EU and its member countries in response. It outlines reasons for the crisis such as excessive risk taking by banks and failure of regulatory bodies. In reaction, the EU introduced several directives and regulations targeting issues like capital requirements, derivatives trading, and supervision of financial institutions. Future reforms are focused on improving liquidity management, monitoring complex products, and balancing market functioning with regulatory goals. Challenges remain in international coordination and establishing effective supervisory authorities.
The financial crisis of 2007-2009 led to a renewed increase in government deficits and debts in many EU countries, causing a full-fledged fiscal crisis in Greece and severe fiscal pressures in other euro-area countries. This has prompted a series of proposals for improving the fiscal framework of the European Monetary Union, the Excessive Deficit Procedure and the Stability and Growth Pact. The first part of this paper reviews the main properties and developments of that framework until 2007. On that basis, it discusses the recent proposals for reform, which range from marginal improvements of the existing framework to the introduction of an explicit framework for managing fiscal crises in the member states, and the expansion of the scope of policy coordination to address macro economic imbalances and the competitiveness of the member states. We find the proposal of a mechanism for dealing with government default most useful. Attempts to suppress current account imbalances and to target national competitiveness positions would most likely result in serious economic losses and do damage to the internal market of the EU. This would increase the wedge between members and non-members of the euro area.
Authored by: Jurgen von Hagen
Published in 2010
Breaking the common fate of banks and governments by Daniel Gros and Cinzia A...Círculo de Empresarios
The document discusses the eurozone debt crisis and proposals for addressing it. It argues that while policymakers have focused on fiscal discipline, the crisis has deeper roots in inconsistencies in the eurozone's financial market regulation. The fiscal compact will not solve the crisis on its own because it fails to address the tight linkage between governments and banks, which is at the core of their common fate. Breaking this linkage is key to overcoming the crisis.
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Discussion of fiscal policies in the euro area: revisiting the size of spillo...ADEMU_Project
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3) The study also finds predominantly positive spillover effects between countries, though effects are largely insignificant and smaller for Germany as the origin country despite it having the largest domestic multipliers. Trade channels are found to be important for explaining spillover effects.
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2. Strengthening enforcement of fiscal rules by expanding conditionality of EU funds to all member states.
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This document proposes an "export-based stabilisation capacity" (ESC) for the Eurozone that allows for cross-border transfers in response to changes in world trade across different sectors. The ESC would provide transfers from countries less affected by a decline in world trade in a given sector to countries more dependent on that sector. This is intended to cushion economic shocks while avoiding moral hazard concerns since the transfers are based on exogenous world trade factors. A simulation using historical export data finds the transfers would be countercyclical and stabilize over time, suggesting the risk of permanent transfers is low. However, timely availability of sectoral trade data could pose practical challenges to implementation.
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Fiscal consolidations through tax increases may have a limited effect on reducing default risk. While tax increases improve the budget balance, they also induce economic distortions by lowering returns in the formal sector and increasing tax evasion. This impacts the government's future ability to raise revenues, which investors incorporate into debt prices. The model shows fiscal consolidations may only marginally reduce default risk when revenue raising ability is imperfect.
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This document summarizes research on the impact of fiscal information on U.S. state bond prices during the 1840s sovereign debt crisis. Key findings:
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Revisiting tax on top income - discussion by Johannes FleckADEMU_Project
1. The document discusses a paper that models the effects of tax changes in response to the European debt crisis.
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3. The model finds that increasing overall progressivity is best for maximizing welfare, while increasing taxes only on the top 1% is best for maximizing revenue.
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
“Amidst Tempered Optimism” Main economic trends in May 2024 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On 12 June 2024 the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event “Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (May 2024)”.
During the event, the results of the 25-th monthly survey of business executives “Ukrainian Business during the war”, which was conducted in May 2024, were presented.
The field stage of the 25-th wave lasted from May 20 to May 31, 2024. In May, 532 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in May 2024 with April, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (May 2024), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
✅ More survey results in the presentation.
✅ Video presentation: https://youtu.be/4ZvsSKd1MzE
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
The Rise and Fall of Ponzi Schemes in America.pptxDiana Rose
Ponzi schemes, a notorious form of financial fraud, have plagued America’s investment landscape for decades. Named after Charles Ponzi, who orchestrated one of the most infamous schemes in the early 20th century, these fraudulent operations promise high returns with little or no risk, only to collapse and leave investors with significant losses. This article explores the nature of Ponzi schemes, notable cases in American history, their impact on victims, and measures to prevent falling prey to such scams.
Understanding Ponzi Schemes
A Ponzi scheme is an investment scam where returns are paid to earlier investors using the capital from newer investors, rather than from legitimate profit earned. The scheme relies on a constant influx of new investments to continue paying the promised returns. Eventually, when the flow of new money slows down or stops, the scheme collapses, leaving the majority of investors with substantial financial losses.
Historical Context: Charles Ponzi and His Legacy
Charles Ponzi is the namesake of this deceptive practice. In the 1920s, Ponzi promised investors in Boston a 50% return within 45 days or 100% return in 90 days through arbitrage of international reply coupons. Initially, he paid returns as promised, not from profits, but from the investments of new participants. When his scheme unraveled, it resulted in losses exceeding $20 million (equivalent to about $270 million today).
Notable American Ponzi Schemes
1. Bernie Madoff: Perhaps the most notorious Ponzi scheme in recent history, Bernie Madoff’s fraud involved $65 billion. Madoff, a well-respected figure in the financial industry, promised steady, high returns through a secretive investment strategy. His scheme lasted for decades before collapsing in 2008, devastating thousands of investors, including individuals, charities, and institutional clients.
2. Allen Stanford: Through his company, Stanford Financial Group, Allen Stanford orchestrated a $7 billion Ponzi scheme, luring investors with fraudulent certificates of deposit issued by his offshore bank. Stanford promised high returns and lavish lifestyle benefits to his investors, which ultimately led to a 110-year prison sentence for the financier in 2012.
3. Tom Petters: In a scheme that lasted more than a decade, Tom Petters ran a $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme, using his company, Petters Group Worldwide. He claimed to buy and sell consumer electronics, but in reality, he used new investments to pay off old debts and fund his extravagant lifestyle. Petters was convicted in 2009 and sentenced to 50 years in prison.
4. Eric Dalius and Saivian: Eric Dalius, a prominent figure behind Saivian, a cashback program promising high returns, is under scrutiny for allegedly orchestrating a Ponzi scheme. Saivian enticed investors with promises of up to 20% cash back on everyday purchases. However, investigations suggest that the returns were paid using new investments rather than legitimate profits. The collapse of Saivian l
Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
Markets rallied in May, with all three major U.S. equity indices up for the month, said Sam Millette, director of fixed income, in his latest Market Risk Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Madhya Pradesh, the "Heart of India," boasts a rich tapestry of culture and heritage, from ancient dynasties to modern developments. Explore its land records, historical landmarks, and vibrant traditions. From agricultural expanses to urban growth, Madhya Pradesh offers a unique blend of the ancient and modern.
1. Sustainable Economic and
Monetary Union in Europe
in Turbulent Times
ADEMU Lecture on Economic and Monetary Union (EMU),
European University Institute, Fiesole, 10 October 2016
Professor René Smits
A Dynamic Economic and Monetary Union