Beetsma, debrun & klaassen (2001)
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The document summarizes a paper about using fiscal policy to stabilize country-specific economic disturbances within the European Monetary Union (EMU). It outlines the paper's main points, methodology using a two-country model and game theory, results showing that fiscal coordination without strong commitment is counterproductive, and conclusion that fiscal policy could help if governance ensures commitment. It also questions some of the paper's assumptions and comments on an apparent contradiction.
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Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in A Potential Zero Lower Bound Framework
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Parac hacer Macroeconomia Necesitamos Fundamentos Microeconomicos
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Econ Theory (2013) 53357–382DOI 10.1007s00199-012-0694-2
Econ Theory (2013) 53:357–382
DOI 10.1007/s00199-012-0694-2
R E S E A R C H A RT I C L E
On the relevance of floating exchange rate policies
Alexandre B. Cunha
Received: 1 July 2009 / Accepted: 17 February 2012 / Published online: 4 March 2012
© Springer-Verlag 2012
Abstract I study the relevance of the composition of the public debt between domes-
tic and foreign liabilities in a standard stochastic small open-economy framework. The
government issues nominal bonds of several maturities with noncontingent face value
at redemption. Intervening in the exchange market to implement an adequate state-
contingent path for the nominal exchange rate is an effective way for the government
to prevent the economy from reaching any competitive equilibrium it wishes to rule
out. Most sterilized interventions are not neutral; however, few of them are. As a con-
sequence, the composition in question is undetermined. Hence, a floating regime may
decentralize every competitive outcome, even one induced by a pegging policy. Con-
versely, outcomes brought forth by a floating regime can also be induced by a policy
that prescribes active government intervention in the foreign currency market. More-
over, an open-market operation can be replaced by an equivalent combination of an
exchange intervention plus a restructuring of the domestic debt maturity. Introducing
in the model strategic behavior by the government combined with asymmetric infor-
mation or lack of commitment can remove that indeterminacy. Hence, these factors
seem to be the major determinants of a possible relation between floating exchange
rate policies and economic outcomes.
The comments and suggestions of two anonymous referees greatly improved this paper. I also thank
Eurilton Araújo, Hector Calvo Pardo, Luciane Carpena, Timothy Kehoe, Emanuel Ornelas, Harald Uhlig
and participants of several conferences and seminars for their comments. Financial support from the
Brazilian Council of Science and Technology (CNPq) is gratefully acknowledged. Of course, the usual
disclaimer applies.
A. B. Cunha (B)
Instituto de Economia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Av. Pasteur 250,
Rio de Janeiro, RJ 22290-240, Brazil
e-mail: [email protected]
123
358 A. B. Cunha
Keywords Floating exchange rate regime · Equilibrium indeterminacy · Equilibrium
implementation · Maturity structure of public debt
JEL Classification E42 · E58 · F31 · F41
1 Introduction
I show in this paper that, under not far-fetched assumptions on the availability of debt
instruments, a floating exchange rate policy can support any competitive equilibrium
allocations and prices of a dynamic stochastic economy, even those induced by a fixed
exchange rate regime. Conversely, an exchange rate policy that requires the govern-
ment to buy or sell foreign exchange in every period can decentralize any allocations
and prices that are brought forth by a floating regime. These results are a consequence
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Beetsma, debrun & klaassen (2001)
- 2. Main point (aim) of the paper The EMU as a monetary union has benefits but the biggest cost is that countries cannot use their monetary policy anymore; which is now governed by the ECB exchange rate adjustments impossible. Should be no problem if labor mobility is high. Unfortunately, labor mobility is quite low and investors also remain focused locally. Alternatives focus on centralization of tax-transfer systems and cross-border fiscal transfers also rather unlikely. Most likely solution: Fiscal policy. How can fiscal policy stabilize country-specific economic disturbances in the EMU?
- 3. Methodology Two-country model with direct spillovers stemming from trade linkages and real-exchange rate variations. Consider best responses of countries using game theory: Nash equilibrium and Stackelberg model (first- mover advantage)
- 4. Results Fiscal coordination efforts not based on a strong pre- commitment capacity of the fiscal authorities (Nash coordination) are likely to be counterproductive. Fiscal coordination is most likely to be desirable when the European economy is hit by asymmetric (demand or supply) disturbances. This is contrary to current research which shows that fiscal coordination is required in cases of large symmetric shocks.
- 5. Centralized fiscal policy: Solution We can use the basic conclusions from this paper in creating a rationale for the use of fiscal policy, but we need to be careful in accepting all of its conclusions. Authors have built a model which can have assumptions that are faulty and thus predict wrongly. However, it does give an insight in the commitment governance systems must show in order to let fiscal policy work well.
- 6. Understanding the paper How do the authors combine the two-period model to game theory and consequently find the Nash coordination and Stackelberg equilibrium? (theoretical model)
- 7. Remarks from NB Page 4: “This is especially the case when shocks are highly correlated between countries. Ironically thus, fiscal coordination is most likely to be undesirable when a set of countries form an optimum currency area.” Comment: This seems to be a contradiction. One aspect of the OCA-theory is implementing a fiscal transfer system among member states to make up for the loss of monetary policy autonomy.